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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
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Posted
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12 minutes ago, J.R. Juniors Junior Jr. said:

What were the predicted numbers for Harvey?  I remember Mont Belvieu got like 56" and even La Grange got an insane amount as it hung out around there for a while.

IIRC, the initial predictions were around 30" of rain, as the high end of the range, of course, but we all pretty much laughed and said, "No fucking way."

Yeah, we were right...LOL.  The prediction was too conservative, but there's been plenty of times when storms were hyped up and everyone's like " When the hell is it getting here?"   That contributed mightily to the Katrina response when everyone blew off the predictions.

 

They have definitely improved, but sometimes it still feels like they are trying to make the craziest prediction in order to maximize panic( and commerce) before landfall.

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NorthLoop
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miguelito
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Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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Posted
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1 hour ago, washparkhorn said:

Jeff-talk was epic last evening. As soon as he demanded money (begged) on youtube - his feed went to hell. There were "RIP Jeff"'s all over storm chaser streamer sites. 

I don't know if it was because he told the guy if used his video he had to pay, because at that same time shit was going down, Jeff was staring at an apartment complex wall, his video was freezing at times, and Reed Timmer was actually out in it, and seeing crazy shit.

His wife did some good damage control.  Props to her.  Instead of bragging about the money to get his attention, she should have said "JEFF I'M TAKING MY CLOTHES OFF AND GOING LIVE ON YOUTUBE." 

That would have got his attention, and the donations would have really rolled in.

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Posted
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Jeff's wife mentioned using Botox for migraines helps her skin or whatever.  She's blunt, I'll give her that.

But somebody told her "Pretty lady! You don't show any signs of aging. What's your secret?"

The moment you tell somebody "you don't show any signs of aging", you've just told them that you see signs of aging.

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smuggs

smuggs 9353

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I just got a chance to sit down from an all-nighter and all day damage assessment and securing property. I rode Laura out in my office building with a few friends right down the street from the port of LC. Built like a bomb shelter of 3 story structural steel, cmu and cast stone walls with 1 3/4” plaster, Slate tile roof. When the eyewall hit about 1:50am the building started to groan and move. North side windows visibly flexing. Doors rattling from negative pressure up the stairwells. We lost a 3 1/4” mahogany door in the center breezeway, tow-strapped the other and it held. The East eyewall went right over the top of us but we never were in the clear. Through all the insanity I was sure that my house on the water (a few hundred yards south) was fucking flattened. I posted photos of it up thread. Well the motherfucker held without a single broken window and no flooding. Truly a miracle.

Im brain dead and need sleep. Here’s a couple vids of the action as the eye was on us:

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

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1 hour ago, slorch said:

IIRC, the initial predictions were around 30" of rain, as the high end of the range, of course, but we all pretty much laughed and said, "No fucking way."

Yeah, we were right...LOL.  The prediction was too conservative, but there's been plenty of times when storms were hyped up and everyone's like " When the hell is it getting here?"   That contributed mightily to the Katrina response when everyone blew off the predictions.

Absolutely. I personally know a couple of people in NOLA who had evacuated the last couple of scares (I don't recall which, maybe Ivan the year before?), and had the boy who cried wolf thing going on. They eventually did bail once it became obvious that Katrina was a killer storm. But yeah, that was a major factor in the carnage that Katrina caused.

For all of the stupidity in news, particularly cable news, these days, I don't envy the weather people. If they predict too extreme and nothing happens people accuse them of being chicken little/hype mongers. If they predict too conservative, people will die. Tough gig.

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
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3 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Jeff’s great, and blue shed will always be a “remember where you were moment”...but it does drag when he doesn’t move. I fell asleep with him yelling at me on my phone around 1230ish. Woke up at 1ish and the view really didn’t change.

In Jeff's defense, the storm surge in Lake Charles was expected to be 12 feet or more, so staying on the ground might not have been a wise move. I thought the parking garage made sense. 

But yes, getting walked through all the screens in his car and watching the windshield wipers go back and forth is kind of tedious. 

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
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At the suggestion of Smuggs, I bought these to hold my trampoline down in the event I was in the bullseye of the hurricane.  They apparently work really well.

https://www.amazon.com/ZIZILAND-Trampoline-Anchor-Anchors-Galvanized/dp/B086Z6FFQZ/ref=asc_df_B086Z6FFQZ/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=459482546127&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=2860891525476573477&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9027719&hvtargid=pla-947917967892&psc=1

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Posted
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40 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

In Jeff's defense, the storm surge in Lake Charles was expected to be 12 feet or more, so staying on the ground might not have been a wise move. I thought the parking garage made sense. 

But yes, getting walked through all the screens in his car and watching the windshield wipers go back and forth is kind of tedious. 

At least until his wife showed up in his texts.

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
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Local Houston news this morning is roasting Entergy for the brownouts, but I'm not really sure what they expect Entergy to do. That part of the grid is yoked to Louisiana and isn't a part of ERCOT. It's not like they can just plug into the Houston power plants instead.  

Yeah, CISD has to close school again today because Entergy couldn’t guarantee service to the schools. A weird year just keeps get weirder.
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ShaggyBevo RIP

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Posted
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22 hours ago, Pimphand said:

That's not how landfalls work... They always weaken as they approach land the speed taken at landfall is when the eye crosses on to land but by that point the landmass has already started slowing the storm down not to mention Laura is making landfall at night.  You'd need a 4-5pm landfall and a much stronger hurricane to join that list.

How does most of that 'land' being a swamp affect this?

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Hate 20108

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What do we know about models this far out?

That they are absolutely hit and miss. Models “sniff” things out. I wouldn’t cancel any plans based on the models as of now, but I would absolutely pay attention to the NHC’s website and any updates they provide. We are not even technically to peak TS season yet. There are two areas of potential development in the Atlantic right now and both are given a less than 30% chance of development over the next 5 days as of now. What that means 8-10 days from now is unknown. Remember, at one point Harvey was DOA before it reappeared in the GOM.
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Dewey

Dewey 3286

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1 hour ago, Hate said:

Some models are suggested a TS into Texas next weekend.

I wouldn't mind a TS, but do not believe anything this time a year can stay a TS. If it gets to Texas, it'll be another hurricane.  They weren't lying when they said it would be a busy hurricane season. #nottakingplywoodoffmyhouse

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
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7 hours ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

How does most of that 'land' being a swamp affect this?

 

4 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Yes swamp provides more fuel than dry land but still far less than the GoM

Yep, pretty much.  Swamps (wetlands) work on a hurricane more like a land mass than water.  The vegetation puts friction on a storm, slows it, and reduces wind speed.  Of course the real value is that wetlands dramatically reduce storm surge... this is undoubtedly what happened with Laura.  14-18 feet became like 12 because as you see in that satellite pic, the wetlands acted like a sponge and absorbed most of the initial surge.  So by the time it got 10 miles inland to some of those towns, it was only maybe 8-10 feet.  We need wetlands.

However, I have no earthly idea how Holly Beach survived mostly intact, never mind at all (and I've been there and have seen it - nothing to protect them from the Gulf, I mean they're right on it, no large dunes or anything)..  Jesus must love them a lot.

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Pimphand

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Posted
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5 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Yep, pretty much.  Swamps (wetlands) work on a hurricane more like a land mass than water.  The vegetation puts friction on a storm, slows it, and reduces wind speed.  Of course the real value is that wetlands dramatically reduce storm surge... this is undoubtedly what happened with Laura.  14-18 feet became like 12 because as you see in that satellite pic, the wetlands acted like a sponge and absorbed most of the initial surge.  So by the time it got 10 miles inland to some of those towns, it was only maybe 8-10 feet.  We need wetlands.

However, I have no earthly idea how Holly Beach survived mostly intact, never mind at all (and I've been there and have seen it - nothing to protect them from the Gulf, I mean they're right on it, no large dunes or anything)..  Jesus must love them a lot.

I was blown away by the power of the mangroves in St Thomas during the hurricanes #sidenote

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Posted
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9 hours ago, Dewey said:

I wouldn't mind a TS, but do not believe anything this time a year can stay a TS. If it gets to Texas, it'll be another hurricane.  They weren't lying when they said it would be a busy hurricane season. #nottakingplywoodoffmyhouse

Can we get Jeff's wife to livestream herself?

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fattyflattie

fattyflattie 4639

Posted
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16 hours ago, phdhorn said:

However, I have no earthly idea how Holly Beach survived mostly intact, never mind at all (and I've been there and have seen it - nothing to protect them from the Gulf, I mean they're right on it, no large dunes or anything)..  Jesus must love them a lot.

My friend who has a place there has huge piles of cement where the dunes would typically be. Looks like shit but guess it works ok.  They also have those large rock formations right at the breakers.  They lost their house in Rita (iirc) when everything down there was pretty junky. Everything that went back up on the beachfront in their hood was very nice and big $$$.  They only got some shingle damage from Laura, which surprised me.  

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kevwun

kevwun 15774

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We are driving to Tuscaloosa on Friday and were planning on going on I20.  We heard from some friends that it is in bad shape.  Power outages everywhere and long lines at gas stations.  Would we be better off on 10?  I can't imagine it's in any better shape unless Laura effected a smaller part of it.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15346

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Just now, kevwun said:

We are driving to Tuscaloosa next Friday and were planning on going on I20.  We heard from some friends that it is in bad shape.  Power outages everywhere and long lines at gas stations.  Would we be better off on 10?  I can't imagine it's in any better shape.

The I-10 bridge in Lake Charles is gonna be closed for a while.  I can’t imagine some of 1-10 East of Lake Charles being better than I-20 

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

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Posted (edited)

Latest count is 15 dead:  9 from carbon monoxide poisoning (generators), 5 from falling trees, 1 drowned while boating.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/14-dead-hurricane-laura-louisiana-seeks-federal-help-n1238764 

 

Lake Charles:

 

 

This area east of Cameron got the worst of the storm surge:

 

 

Edited by clapclapclap
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Eastwood

Eastwood 4394

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Wtf?  Are people running them inside their house or just sitting next to them huffing the fumes.  

In times like these, my grandparents run theirs in the garage. However, their garage has a large window that they open all the way. It might be that a lot of people run their generators in the garage with not enough airflow to let the CO escape and it seeps into the house overnight.

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Dewey

Dewey 3286

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Posted
2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

In times like these, my grandparents run theirs in the garage. However, their garage has a large window that they open all the way. It might be that a lot of people run their generators in the garage with not enough airflow to let the CO escape and it seeps into the house overnight.

They ran a PSA before the hurricane hit asking people not run run their generators inside the house. I think it happens quite a bit. 

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BearSchlong

BearSchlong 8084

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They ran a PSA before the hurricane hit asking people not run run their generators inside the house. I think it happens quite a bit. 

I'm getting emails, text messages, and voice mails from Jefferson County Judge Jeff Branick just about hourly imploring me not to run my generator inside.

 

Apparently a dozen people in Port Arthur were sleeping in a bar with a generator inside, some died, some are critical, some released. Vietnamese last names.

 

Back in Beaumont now. Even though 25% of the town is without power its fucking amazing how little damage we got. I've got to fix a roof vent and thats it. My power finally came back on early this morning so I came back from Leander.

 

And my fridge and freezers are immaculate. Threw away everything prior to evacuation.

 

My wifes uncles house in Moss Bluff had all the windows and garage doors blown out (6 car garage, tall 2 story house) and its my understanding his 58' cigarette boat got destroyed in a warehouse that collapsed in Lake Charles. And somehow it wasn't insured.

 

From what I read on the Entergy website, Lake Charles' power infrastructure and transmission lines are just shredded.

 

Hope we dont have anymore evacuations in Sept. Thinking about leaving the back side of the house boarded up for the next few weeks. Or is that tempting fate? Got home late so I've got to unboard the rest of the windows in the morning.

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