2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

[Hate 20108]

Invest 99L is forecast to strengthen into a TS in the next 48-72 hours. 

 

1. UPDATED: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave 
over the eastern Caribbean Sea are beginning to show signs of 
organization. Recent satellite-derived surface winds also indicated 
that a broad low pressure system has formed in association with the 
wave. Additional development of this disturbance is expected over 
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the 
next couple of days while the system moves moves westward at about 
15 mph across the Caribbean Sea.  Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, 
Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress of this 
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

[Hate 20108]

99L has already been updated to have a 80% of forming into a TS in the next 5 days.

1. A westward-moving tropical wave accompanied by a broad low pressure 
area is located over the eastern Caribbean Sea just west of the 
Windward Islands. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity 
continues to show signs of organization, and environmental 
conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for 
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or two while the system moves moves westward at about 15 
mph across the central Caribbean Sea.  Interests in Jamaica, 
Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and Yucatan should monitor the progress 
of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[tokamak 6425]

Is it just me, or does it seem like these things always start out at 20%.... then 40%.... then 70%.... then 90%? Unless I completely misunderstand how this works, seems like 4 out of 5 of the 20% storms should peter out to nothing.

[Hate 20108]

This one is strange because it went from 20-30% chance last night to 80% this afternoon. I believe that kind of change is somewhat uncommon, but we are just about to peak season.

[Neonmoon 38129]

11 minutes ago, tokamak said:

Is it just me, or does it seem like these things always start out at 20%.... then 40%.... then 70%.... then 90%? Unless I completely misunderstand how this works, seems like 4 out of 5 of the 20% storms should peter out to nothing.

You completely misunderstand how this works. 

The percentages represent chances of a cyclone formation in the next 5 days, and not overall chances of formation. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

99L has some opportunity to strengthen in the Caribbean before it buries itself in Central America

[tokamak 6425]

3 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

You completely misunderstand how this works. 

The percentages represent chances of a cyclone formation in the next 5 days, and not overall chances of formation. 

That makes a lot more sense. Although I'd argue that it's not super useful when the shit's still over near Cape Verde.

[Zonahorn 8079]

4 minutes ago, tokamak said:

That makes a lot more sense. Although I'd argue that it's not super useful when the shit's still over near Cape Verde.

the NHC is the Atlantic basin's official tropical cyclone tracking agency. They have to track every storm in the Atlantic.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

The models have been hinting at a cold front into Texas sometime next week. It's still there this morning and the mets are starting to have more confidence that it will be for real. 

Although the primary benefit will be to drop temps and dewpoints and signal a start to fall weather, another benefit will be that it will be the first brick in the fall "forcefield" that protects Texas from tropical cyclones.

It's not 100% foolproof, but the odds go way down in Texas after the first front, so be cheering for that. 

Also, 40* dewpoints all the way to the coast. Gottdam bring it on. 

Edited August 31, 2020 by crimsonlonghorn

[kevwun 15777]

A cool down has been at the end of the 10 day forecast for the last few weeks.  I hope this one is right.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

I sure hope it's real. This one seems more reliable than the other ones, but there are a lot of disappointments in early September in Texas weather. 

I've been planning this week to start preparations for my pecan harvest. I sure hope there is a cool down when the work starts in earnest later in September. 

[Hate 20108]

I’ve read this may have something to do with the Super Typhoon in The Pacific right now. It’s forecast to track north which buckles some of the upper level jet patterns and allows for fronts to make it this far south. I think that is what I’ve read.

[UT_OB1 2219]

12 minutes ago, Hate said:

I’ve read this may have something to do with the Super Typhoon in The Pacific right now. It’s forecast to track north which buckles some of the upper level jet patterns and allows for fronts to make it this far south. I think that is what I’ve read.

Getting a cool front through all of Texas by 9/10.  Feels early.  I hope it happens.  Spacecity weather guys swag a 50% chance right now of it happening.  I love summer every year until I don't.  I think I'm more ready for this one to end than others because of all the rest going on.  

[Orange&White 5525]

2 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Getting a cool front through all of Texas by 9/10.  Feels early.  I hope it happens.  Spacecity weather guys swag a 50% chance right now of it happening.  I love summer every year until I don't.  I think I'm more ready for this one to end than others because of all the rest going on.  

I agree with everything in this post.

[InkaUtexas 25916]

12 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Getting a cool front through all of Texas by 9/10.  Feels early.  I hope it happens.  Spacecity weather guys swag a 50% chance right now of it happening.  I love summer every year until I don't.  I think I'm more ready for this one to end than others because of all the rest going on.  

Yep, I can handle it if I can get to the river for a swim a few days a week or go and sit at a nice bar with misters. This year just tired of no river, being stuck at the house, etc. 

2020 can lick my nuts. 

[Lerka Lerka 1086]

25 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

2020 can lick my sweaty nuts. 

Fify

[Rip76 4925]

13 hours ago, Hate said:

I’ve read this may have something to do with the Super Typhoon in The Pacific right now. It’s forecast to track north which buckles some of the upper level jet patterns and allows for fronts to make it this far south. I think that is what I’ve read.

This is correct 

[Zonahorn 8079]

On 8/30/2020 at 2:39 PM, Calihorn said:

99L has some opportunity to strengthen in the Caribbean before it buries itself in Central America

This turned out to be understated. Nana already has a closed eyewall (6 Miles wide Ned!!), and is going to strengthen right up until landfall. There is potential for a category 2 hurricane, and its not impossible she becomes a major.

[Hate 20108]

Yeah, but she is going into Central America so nobody here cares. If this could front next week does come to fruition, we cold be done with tropical systems for the year. On the other hand, the front could be a self starter when it reaches the gulf and create its own tropical storm.

[davidg 4037]

9 minutes ago, Hate said:

 On the other hand, the front could be a self starter when it reaches the gulf and create its own tropical storm.

It's 2020  you'vekilledus.gif

 

Edited September 1, 2020 by davidg

[phdhorn 6224]

Nothing on the map now seems of much concern.

Of course Nana is doing exactly what we thought Harvey would do - and did, up to a few days before it decided to twist north and wreck the U.S..

However, the chances of any hurricane doing even a semi-close imitation of Harvey are infinitesimal so I'm sticking with no concern.

[rage-a-holic 4384]

18 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yeah, but she is going into Central America so nobody here cares. If this could front next week does come to fruition, we cold be done with tropical systems for the year. On the other hand, the front could be a self starter when it reaches the gulf and create its own tropical storm.

Trust me, people that are diving near Belize care.

[bolverk 29671]

2 hours ago, rage-a-holic said:

Trust me, people that are diving near Belize care.

I belize you.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

Why the fuck they name it Nana?  Was MeeMaw taken?

[WBT 20564]

Omar coming...for the north Atlantic

[Steel Shank 9424]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I belize you.

9.5

[Dewey 3286]

2 hours ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Why the fuck they name it Nana?  Was MeeMaw taken?

Be a lot cooler of it were name Banana 

[Hate 20108]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

Omar coming...for the north Atlantic

Wait wait...what happened to Omar?

[BradInATX 9208]

Too soon

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Too soon

Indeed.

[Moby Ric 2058]

Nana?  Seriously?  So 2020, Nana is coming to kill us with her covid hurricane.

[kevwun 15777]

That's real bad news for Belize.  They've already had a terrible financial year because of no tourism.

[Blotto 23498]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/typhoon-maysak-ship-with-43-crew-and-nearly-6000-cattle-missing-off-japan

Quote

 

Japan’s coastguard rescued one person in the search for a cargo ship carrying livestock that went missing in the East China Sea after issuing a distress signal during typhoon Maysak. The storm has killed one person in neighbouring South Korea and forced 2,000 others to be evacuated from their homes.

The Panamanian-registered vessel, called Gulf Livestock 1, sent the distress call from the East China Sea, to the west of Amami Oshima Island in south-western Japan, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported.

The vessel departed Napier in New Zealand on 14 August with 5,867 cattle on board, New Zealand’s foreign ministry told Reuters.

A spokeswoman for the coastguard said one person was rescued on Wednesday night Tokyo time during the search for the ship after being spotted adrift wearing a life jacket.

 

Damn, 6K cattle

[Updawg 2266]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/typhoon-maysak-ship-with-43-crew-and-nearly-6000-cattle-missing-off-japan

 
Japan’s coastguard rescued one person in the search for a cargo ship carrying livestock that went missing in the East China Sea after issuing a distress signal during typhoon Maysak. The storm has killed one person in neighbouring South Korea and forced 2,000 others to be evacuated from their homes.
The Panamanian-registered vessel, called Gulf Livestock 1, sent the distress call from the East China Sea, to the west of Amami Oshima Island in south-western Japan, Japanese public broadcaster NHK reported.
The vessel departed Napier in New Zealand on 14 August with 5,867 cattle on board, New Zealand’s foreign ministry told Reuters.
A spokeswoman for the coastguard said one person was rescued on Wednesday night Tokyo time during the search for the ship after being spotted adrift wearing a life jacket.
 

Damn, 6K cattle

Wagyu gonna do

[Guest Lobo]

5 hours ago, Updawg said:

Damn, 6K cattle

Wagyu gonna do

Too soon, man.  Moo soon.  

[Pam Cummings 9641]

5 hours ago, Updawg said:

Damn, 6K cattle

Wagyu gonna do

What an insensitive comment. You really need to think beefore you post stuff like this.

[Trey3216 15346]

12 minutes ago, Pam Cummings said:

What an insensitive comment. You really need to think beefore you post stuff like this.

 

[Hate 20108]

What an insensitive comment. You really need to think beefore you post stuff like this.

I’m looking for the joke in here but I’m not finding it. Is it the “beefore” part? Were there also bees involved?

[SuperSport 1333]

I think it's the "beef" part.

[Llano Estacado 1257]

[Hate 20108]

I think it's the "beef" part.

[phdhorn 6224]

On 9/3/2020 at 12:04 PM, Hate said:

You need to loin to know when  sarcasm re-veals itself. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Euro is now on board this morning with the front. #ItsHappening

[Rip76 4925]

1 hour ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Euro is now on board this morning with the front. #ItsHappening

Yasssss.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Yeah fuck nevermind. Just keep sweating. 

[phdhorn 6224]

Bad anniversary, surprised no one noted it.

Today (Sept. 8th) is the 120th anniversary of the landing of the Cat 4 hurricane in Galveston.  Still the deadliest natural disaster in one event (some people put drought casualties above this, but it's hard to nail those down) in U.S. History.

What most people don't know about this storm is that it actually (and very, very uncharasterically) strengthened again after moving inland.  It lost its full-blown tropical characteristics, but went from 30 mph gusts over OK to tropical storm strength over the Midwest, and by the time it got to Ontario and Buffalo, was equivalent again to a Cat 1 storm (although again, "officially" it was no longer a hurricane).  It virually wiped out the New England apple harvest, and winds were so strong on Lake Champlain that on the Vermont (west) side, the water in the lake receded out some 200 yards, and the New York (east) side had 20 foot waves and significant flooding - in freaking Vermont.  It killed somewhere between 300-500 in eastern Canada, making the storm the 8th deadliest natural disaster alone in Canada.

It was in most ways, from start to finish, still probably the worst storm to hit North America ever.

Edited September 9, 2020 by phdhorn

[WBT 20564]

Thanks, I didn't know about the damage to the midwest and Canada.  Wiki says 84 mph gusts in Chicago.

[fattyflattie 4639]

Thanks @phdhorn   I knew some of it, but not to that extent. 

[UTexasFight 9432]

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Bad anniversary, surprised no one noted it.

Today (Sept. 8th) is the 120th anniversary of the landing of the Cat 4 hurricane in Galveston.  Still the deadliest natural disaster in one event (some people put drought casualties above this, but it's hard to nail those down) in U.S. History.

What most people don't know about this storm is that it actually (and very, very uncharasterically) strengthened again after moving inland.  It lost its full-blown tropical characteristics, but went from 30 mph gusts over OK to tropical storm strength over the Midwest, and by the time it got to Ontario and Buffalo, was equivalent again to a Cat 1 storm (although again, "officially" it was no longer a hurricane).  It virually wiped out the New England apple harvest, and winds were so strong on Lake Champlain that on the Vermont (west) side, the water in the lake receded out some 200 yards, and the New York (east) side had 20 foot waves and significant flooding - in freaking Vermont.  It killed somewhere between 300-500 in eastern Canada, making the storm the 8th deadliest natural disaster alone in Canada.

It was in most ways, from start to finish, still probably the worst storm to hit North America ever.

“What starts here....”

 

 

fascinating. Had no idea 

[InkaUtexas 25916]

Frankie never forgets.