2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

[washparkhorn 9939]

3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Bad anniversary, surprised no one noted it.

Today (Sept. 8th) is the 120th anniversary of the landing of the Cat 4 hurricane in Galveston.  Still the deadliest natural disaster in one event (some people put drought casualties above this, but it's hard to nail those down) in U.S. History.

What most people don't know about this storm is that it actually (and very, very uncharasterically) strengthened again after moving inland.  It lost its full-blown tropical characteristics, but went from 30 mph gusts over OK to tropical storm strength over the Midwest, and by the time it got to Ontario and Buffalo, was equivalent again to a Cat 1 storm (although again, "officially" it was no longer a hurricane).  It virually wiped out the New England apple harvest, and winds were so strong on Lake Champlain that on the Vermont (west) side, the water in the lake receded out some 200 yards, and the New York (east) side had 20 foot waves and significant flooding - in freaking Vermont.  It killed somewhere between 300-500 in eastern Canada, making the storm the 8th deadliest natural disaster alone in Canada.

It was in most ways, from start to finish, still probably the worst storm to hit North America ever.

"September 8, 1900, began innocently in the seaside town of Galveston, Texas. Even Isaac Cline, resident meteorologist for the U.S. Weather Bureau failed to grasp the true meaning of the strange deep-sea swells and peculiar winds that greeted the city that morning. Mere hours later, Galveston found itself submerged in a monster hurricane that completely destroyed the town and killed over six thousand people in what remains the greatest natural disaster in American history--and Isaac Cline found himself the victim of a devestating personal tragedy. 
Using Cline's own telegrams, letters, and reports, the testimony of scores of survivors, and our latest understanding of the science of hurricanes, Erik Larson builds a chronicle of one man's heroic struggle and fatal miscalculation in the face of a storm of unimaginable magnitude. Riveting, powerful, and unbearably suspenseful, Isaac's Storm is the story of what can happen when human arrogance meets the great uncontrollable force of nature."

Edited September 9, 2020 by washparkhorn

[BERT 4358]

On 9/1/2020 at 9:08 PM, Hate said:

Wait wait...what happened to Omar?

Don’t worry about Omar, he ain’t with us no more 

[phdhorn 6224]

14 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

"September 8, 1900, began innocently in the seaside town of Galveston, Texas. Even Isaac Cline, resident meteorologist for the U.S. Weather Bureau failed to grasp the true meaning of the strange deep-sea swells and peculiar winds that greeted the city that morning. Mere hours later, Galveston found itself submerged in a monster hurricane that completely destroyed the town and killed over six thousand people in what remains the greatest natural disaster in American history--and Isaac Cline found himself the victim of a devestating personal tragedy. 
Using Cline's own telegrams, letters, and reports, the testimony of scores of survivors, and our latest understanding of the science of hurricanes, Erik Larson builds a chronicle of one man's heroic struggle and fatal miscalculation in the face of a storm of unimaginable magnitude. Riveting, powerful, and unbearably suspenseful, Isaac's Storm is the story of what can happen when human arrogance meets the great uncontrollable force of nature."

Yes, this is a GREAT book, and this version with Edward Herrmann narrating makes it awesome (I need to hear that!).

Cline has of course been pretty much hammered as the scapegoat for this storm, mostly because of his opinion 15ish years earlier about the "folly" of building a seawall.  And so people have been quick to blame him for that, and for the immediate pre-storm (non)actions.

I can give him some of the blame, but honestly, he gets a pretty undeserved lone scapegoat smackdown for this.  The one thing I do fault him for is the flippancy with which he thought a terrible hurricane could never hit Galveston.  However, some perspective is needed here - first, while his opinion did count quite a bit, it's been established that the overwhelming majority of Galvestonians were opposed to a seawall, and it's still not likely that they would have built it even if he urged it.  Second, it's pretty likely that most people didn't really understand how terrible a hurricane could be - news of course at that time was spotty and thin in coverage, and most people who survived say a terrible hurricane in North Carolina were still a world away (as were their stories) from Galveston.  The city was only sparsely settled in the 1850's and exploded with the growth of rail and trade by the Civil War.  So it really wasn't all that many years that anyone around there really knew how bad hurricanes could be - most of it was rumor and hearsay.  Cline should be faulted for underestimating the power of weather, since he was a pro - but at that time weather itself was almost an alchemical process - no one really understood much about it.  This storm was only a tropical storm all the way up through Cuba, so reports from there (1867 was the first telegraph line between Cuba to the U.S.), so most of those messages were "meh, not too bad."  Cline had no reason to fear (based on what they knew back then).  The thing did what Rita and Laura and Katrina and whatever else did - get into the Gulf and go berserk.  

Cline was a bit of a snob but an honest guy who staked his reputation on providing accurate weather.  And the signs of the hurricane that morning weren't very telling - in fact, no one knew it was out there - and in fact it only took 24 hours to go from a mild TS to landfall as a roaring 4.  That's it.  Even if he knew it was out there, it ramped up so fast and so close to land that it's debatable how fast Galveston could have evacuated (again, remember that they had a single train line and some boats).  Panic would likely have killed a few (hell, Rita's panic run killed more than the hurricane - and that was in 2005!).  Cline insists that he warned as many people as he could the morning of the 8th but no one seems to have backed this up (but of course you don't want to admit he warned you and you did nothing about it - so blame him). But even by then it was way too late.  In any event, I'm pretty sure that no one had any idea of how bad the storm could be - there was just so little reliable information on their behavior, and this was hitting an area that for at least 70 years prior had no similar experience.

In any event, Cline did some heroic work to save many in Galveston at his own risk (he almost drowned but saved several people), mostly by advising people on where to shelter up (as if most places would do much good).  He also broke Bureau protocol by issuing hurricane warnings that morning without getting the go-ahead by the D.C. main office (again, not that it was going to do much good at that point).  Once evacuations started, they got bogged down and sluggish, and again, most people just stayed anyway - they assumed to their mortal peril that they could weather the "worst" of these notorious "storms".  They were dead wrong of course.  But that's not Cline's fault - it was the era Zeitgeist - people just didn't understand en masse how bad hurricanes could be.  To most they were like dragons and hobbits - long-off tales that might not even be all that true.  That's how people thought.

After this tragedy, the Weather Bureau essentially moved to NOLA and he moved with it - and saved hundreds, perhaps thousands of lives by correctly predicting several major floods and successfully helped to guide New Orleans and the entire lower Mississippi basin to better flood preparedness.  He also wrote a book on tropical storms that was an immense step forward in helping forecasters (and everyone) understand hurricanes - it had a significant influence on the more rapid development of hurricane forecasting.

But in the end I guess it's just the same old story - if the weather sucks, blame the weatherman!  Heh.

[washparkhorn 9939]

phd - I enjoyed the book (and the audio version is excellent by the way). Isaac Cline came across sympathetic and heroic (wise before his time). Before the storm, he personally went down the beach with a horse and cart warning people a storm was approaching. Terrible storm.

[BearSchlong 8087]

My FILs great grandfather died in the 1900 storm. His grandmother was 2 and survived.

[Zonahorn 8079]

96L could be trouble. There is going to be no shear when it gets into the gulf 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

96L could be trouble. There is going to be no shear when it gets into the gulf 

From Space City:

 There’s a really high degree of uncertainty at the moment with respect to that Bahamas system. One the one hand, I looked at a bunch of weather models, even the speculative ones we constantly tell people not to bother looking at for tropical systems (I need a shower now), and I don’t see a single one developing it much past where it is now; maybe one or two get to depression level. But when you look at satellite above, it looks a lot better than I would have expected today. Additionally, it’s going to be over the Gulf for a time, and it will be in a low shear environment. Realistically, this has a better shot at development than any model gives it credit for right now. The only thing I can come up with to explain why the models don’t particularly care for it, is that a good chunk of its low-level vorticity or the most “spin” associated with the system ends up along the immediate Gulf Coast or, as the European model suggests, just inland. So the models likely sense this is too close to the coast to develop. Given how far south it appears to be right now, I think the Euro may be a bit off-kilter here, and although we’d still expect a general track toward southeast Louisiana, it’s worth continuing to watch.

What does it mean for us? Right now, we’ll just call for an increase in rain chances later next week and perhaps some choppy conditions offshore with some slightly gustier winds. At this time, we do not expect significant impacts to our area (or to Hurricane Laura damaged areas) beyond increasing rain chances and slightly higher tides. But again, given the disturbance’s location and the time of year, it would be foolish to write it off completely, so we’ll keep watching.

https://spacecityweather.com/after-thursdays-kinda-sorta-front-in-houston-were-eyeing-rain-chances-this-weekend/

[Neonmoon 38129]

1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

96L could be trouble. There is going to be no shear when it gets into the gulf 

This little guy?

[Zonahorn 8079]

13 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

From Space City:

 There’s a really high degree of uncertainty at the moment with respect to that Bahamas system. One the one hand, I looked at a bunch of weather models, even the speculative ones we constantly tell people not to bother looking at for tropical systems (I need a shower now), and I don’t see a single one developing it much past where it is now; maybe one or two get to depression level. But when you look at satellite above, it looks a lot better than I would have expected today. Additionally, it’s going to be over the Gulf for a time, and it will be in a low shear environment. Realistically, this has a better shot at development than any model gives it credit for right now. The only thing I can come up with to explain why the models don’t particularly care for it, is that a good chunk of its low-level vorticity or the most “spin” associated with the system ends up along the immediate Gulf Coast or, as the European model suggests, just inland. So the models likely sense this is too close to the coast to develop. Given how far south it appears to be right now, I think the Euro may be a bit off-kilter here, and although we’d still expect a general track toward southeast Louisiana, it’s worth continuing to watch.

What does it mean for us? Right now, we’ll just call for an increase in rain chances later next week and perhaps some choppy conditions offshore with some slightly gustier winds. At this time, we do not expect significant impacts to our area (or to Hurricane Laura damaged areas) beyond increasing rain chances and slightly higher tides. But again, given the disturbance’s location and the time of year, it would be foolish to write it off completely, so we’ll keep watching.

https://spacecityweather.com/after-thursdays-kinda-sorta-front-in-houston-were-eyeing-rain-chances-this-weekend/

Feels like another Hanna situation this where models just ignore something in the gulf with good conditions for development.

13 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

This little guy?

That's the one.

 

My take is this ends up being a hurricane. Its September, it will be over the gulf, and shear won't be too much of an issue.

[Sgt Hulk 13716]

On 9/9/2020 at 1:36 AM, washparkhorn said:

"September 8, 1900, began innocently in the seaside town of Galveston, Texas. Even Isaac Cline, resident meteorologist for the U.S. Weather Bureau failed to grasp the true meaning of the strange deep-sea swells and peculiar winds that greeted the city that morning. Mere hours later, Galveston found itself submerged in a monster hurricane that completely destroyed the town and killed over six thousand people in what remains the greatest natural disaster in American history--and Isaac Cline found himself the victim of a devestating personal tragedy. 
Using Cline's own telegrams, letters, and reports, the testimony of scores of survivors, and our latest understanding of the science of hurricanes, Erik Larson builds a chronicle of one man's heroic struggle and fatal miscalculation in the face of a storm of unimaginable magnitude. Riveting, powerful, and unbearably suspenseful, Isaac's Storm is the story of what can happen when human arrogance meets the great uncontrollable force of nature."

just picked it up on audible  thanks 

[Hate 20108]

Things are quite active in the tropics today.

[InkaUtexas 25915]

#3 is the one I am watching. Southern track forecasted and the waters are warm all way across. 

[Bevo 13576]

7 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

#3 is the one I am watching. Southern track forecasted and the waters are warm all way across. 

Exactly, all the others are too far north and will dissipate or hit somewhere on the eastern seaboard.

[InkaUtexas 25915]

2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Exactly, all the others are too far north and will dissipate or hit somewhere on the eastern seaboard.

[HoustonFrog 368]

I feel like on weather boards there needs to be a classification for each user. I read this thread and then read Storm 2K when something starts to pop up that could impact Texas. But I never know who is just totally guessing/regurgitating various experts and who to actually listen to.

My classification would be “observer with no skills”. I can understand the lingo but could never make my own opinions

[Zonahorn 8079]

Global models finally realize there will be a storm in the gulf.

[Zonahorn 8079]

24 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

I feel like on weather boards there needs to be a classification for each user. I read this thread and then read Storm 2K when something starts to pop up that could impact Texas. But I never know who is just totally guessing/regurgitating various experts and who to actually listen to.

My classification would be “observer with no skills”. I can understand the lingo but could never make my own opinions

The websites usually have tags for actual meteorologists.

[Hate 20108]

I feel like on weather boards there needs to be a classification for each user. I read this thread and then read Storm 2K when something starts to pop up that could impact Texas. But I never know who is just totally guessing/regurgitating various experts and who to actually listen to.

My classification would be “observer with no skills”. I can understand the lingo but could never make my own opinions

Anything I post comes from the NWS or from real meteorologists like Jeff Lindner from the Harris County Flood Control District. I do post models that weather enthusiasts at Storm 2K and Wx Infinity post, but any forecast I post are only from professionals. I’ve always been a weather dork and enjoy following along, but I would never state my opinion as fact as far as what a weather event will it won’t be.

[InkaUtexas 25915]

25 minutes ago, Hate said:

I’ve always been a weather dork and enjoy following along, but I would never state my opinion as fact as far as what a weather event will it won’t be.

Plus you know we would not listen. 

 

[Biff Tannen 45678]

On 9/8/2020 at 8:39 PM, phdhorn said:

Bad anniversary, surprised no one noted it.

Today (Sept. 8th) is the 120th anniversary of the landing of the Cat 4 hurricane in Galveston.  Still the deadliest natural disaster in one event (some people put drought casualties above this, but it's hard to nail those down) in U.S. History.

What most people don't know about this storm is that it actually (and very, very uncharasterically) strengthened again after moving inland.  It lost its full-blown tropical characteristics, but went from 30 mph gusts over OK to tropical storm strength over the Midwest, and by the time it got to Ontario and Buffalo, was equivalent again to a Cat 1 storm (although again, "officially" it was no longer a hurricane).  It virually wiped out the New England apple harvest, and winds were so strong on Lake Champlain that on the Vermont (west) side, the water in the lake receded out some 200 yards, and the New York (east) side had 20 foot waves and significant flooding - in freaking Vermont.  It killed somewhere between 300-500 in eastern Canada, making the storm the 8th deadliest natural disaster alone in Canada.

It was in most ways, from start to finish, still probably the worst storm to hit North America ever.

Isaac's Storm by Erik Lawson was a good read about this, if anyone is so inclined.

Edited September 11, 2020 by Biff Tannen
aaaand that's what I get for not finishing the full thread before posting

[Zonahorn 8079]

Gonna be Sally before it gets to Florida IMO

[HoustonFrog 368]

Isaac's Storm by Erik Lawson was a good read about this, if anyone is so inclined.

Anything by Erik Larson is a good read. Best in the business

[Biff Tannen 45678]

7 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Anything by Erik Larson is a good read. Best in the business

Larson. My bad. Good god, delete user. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Is Jeff Piotrowski guzzling up his Subaru?

[Neonmoon 38129]

I am an asshole and completely full of shit 

[InkaUtexas 25915]

Just saw we have Tropical Storm Sally. 

 

Edited September 12, 2020 by InkaUtexas

[CleverNickname 1308]

Sally to Mustang Island, book it. 

[justhookit 4191]

28 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Sally to Mustang Island, book it. 

[Bevo&Pevo 5131]

Sally is Mississippi's bitch all the way.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Bevo&Pevo

[atomheartbevo 89656]

On 9/8/2020 at 8:39 PM, phdhorn said:

Bad anniversary, surprised no one noted it.

Today (Sept. 8th) is the 120th anniversary of the landing of the Cat 4 hurricane in Galveston.  Still the deadliest natural disaster in one event (some people put drought casualties above this, but it's hard to nail those down) in U.S. History.

And yesterday was the anniversary of Carla

https://www.kvue.com/article/weather/hurricane-carla-1961-largest-hurricane-hit-texas/269-e6ecf104-93a6-424d-b8b0-b2bab0b5b263

This month sucks for hurricanes and Texas.

And it's 2020.  So there's plenty of time for Texas to get fucked again.

Edited September 12, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Gatorubet 30229]

Sally is Mississippi's bitch all the way.

God, I hope so. New Orleans full of Lake Charles refugees. What a shit show.

[Bevo&Pevo 5131]

Levi is thinking 15 to 20 inches of rain.  Find some waders or grow gills.

[Sawbonz 27548]

That cold front killed any chances for another Texas landfall this year 

 

Fuck a jinx

[Neonmoon 38129]

Biloxi is going take the length

[austingirl 2191]

On 9/11/2020 at 5:03 PM, HoustonFrog said:

Anything by Erik Larson is a good read. Best in the business

Yeah, not to derail, but y'all all need to read The Devil in the White City.

[Dewey 3286]

Look like Rene forgot her phone, turning around

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Sally will bring a bit of a punch to the mid-Gulf coast.
The rest aren't worth worrying about, nothing to see here, Lt. Drebbin.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Euro and GFS forecasting a shitload of rain. 

[Dewey 3286]

Everyone is, the thing is going to slow down and dump. 

[Parliament 14257]

Everyone is, the thing is going to slow down and dump. 

2020 scat talk not going away.

[Orange&White 5525]

I'm in New Orleans drinking this weekend. I've been asking around here and not a single local is concerned about Sally in any way. It's a little strange.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21905]

They don't usually worry until the bodies start appearing in trees

[Dewey 3286]

11 hours ago, Orange&White said:

I'm in New Orleans drinking this weekend. I've been asking around here and not a single local is concerned about Sally in any way. It's a little strange.

Thats the way it is, dont let it fool you though. Most will leave, the ones who stay will be awake through it all, freaking out as the water rises. But they'll play it cool "just some wind and rain"

[Hate 20108]

Thats the way it is, dont let it fool you though. Most will leave, the ones who stay will be awake through it all, freaking out as the water rises and then blame someone else when there are bodies in the attics. But they'll play it cool "just some wind and rain"

Added a little extra for accuracy.

[Brew 3049]

 Need a break for a couple of weeks. We’re over 20 inches of rain in the last two weeks with half of that in the last day at my house in SWFL. Another shower or two and we’ll have water in our lower level at this point. Water is usually a good 4-5 feet or more lower than where it is sitting right now.

[miguelito 11263]

The sea was angry that day, my friends.

 

 

[Neonmoon 38129]

Gulf Shores is getting abused 

[deadshank 24652]

I drove  through the Pasca / Biloxi / Mobile SEChayseedplex yesterday afternoon on way from Houston to Charlotte.   Not a lot of folks were leaving. 
 

Some were doing some fueling up but that was about all I saw. 

 

My Wednesday return route is going to be spoiled by flooding so I’ve got to figure on battling road construction on I-85 from Charlotte to Atlanta while it’s raining and rush hour so I can take I-20 back to Texas and then drop down to Houston on 59 from Texarkana.   I will stop in Texarkana and put a few drinks on @markstanco ‘s tab. 

[Dnaguy 11948]

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Talk about rainbow hurricane dick pics!