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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

Loco

By Loco
in Daily Texan

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NorthLoop
NorthLoop
miguelito
miguelito

Then they should just make the cone 1/3 bigger.  Duh.

crimsonlonghorn
crimsonlonghorn

Those of us in Houston are so goddam lucky right now. 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19140

Posted
Posted

Do you even “wife,” bro?

All could have been dealt with if she had called me back privately and said “let’s discuss.” Instead, she decided to feel pressured, for into a huff, and indulged that huff all the way home.

You know, productive.

Like I said...gonna go hunting early today, get some fresh air.
Take it from a woman, your wife is being irrational. Sorry you are in the dog house for a decision she made.
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Update:  Beta is struggling a bit - as is often the case, if a TS sits out there in the Western Gulf, it's often so near land that dry, not ocean, air sweeps into its SW quadrant.  This happened this afternoon, which is why it hasn't intensified, and frankly, looks a little ragged.  Also, there is some shear it's going through so it's not able to strengthen. 

But it's holding its own and I think it'll be a Cat 1 when it hits tomorrow.  I think due to these factors it'll remain somewhat limited in its power.  Guess we'll see.

Models still calling for a landing near Matagorda then a sharp (almost 90 degree turn) inland.  Austin has subtly moved into a slightly higher rain forecast but nothing of concern and winds should be maybe mildly breezy but that's about it.  If the thing doesn't turn, Monday into Tuesday could be more windy with maybe up to 4 inches of rain in spots.  Anyway not much concern of anything significant here at this point.

Houston and Galveston are going to get drenched.  Easily 10 inches all over, maybe 20 in spots.  However the surge shouldn't be too bad if this stays fairly weak.  Don't expect wind damage but some flooding damage for sure.  

Update tonight or tomorrow morning if either merits it.

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 77284

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Friends got back with no trouble. Dropped off her shoes she accidentally left behind.

Got the speech - I made her feel stupid, they were monitoring the conditions. And she feels manipulated, I made her choose between her friends and me, so of course she chose me, but she’s fucking pissed about it and intends to stay that way. And it sure didn’t help that she got a separate message from the MIL warning her of the conditions - my mother needs to STFU and not do anything that remotely sounds like “telling her what she should do.”

I think the boy and I should head out to the dove lease early today....it’ll be raining too much the next few days to hunt.

She’s acting like a spoiled little kid.

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crimsonlonghorn

crimsonlonghorn 2306

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, pearlandhorn said:

We got 1.22 inches. It feels so good outside right now.

This combined with the front on Friday makes me want so bad to say “summer” is over and we’re finally done with hot and humid mid-90’s days. I’m gonna punch Eric Berger in the dick if he disagrees with me. 

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HOOKEM4

HOOKEM4 5040

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bevo&Pevo said:

Live from DJ in Brazoria county, barely misting and winds aren't jackcrap.  NHC projected rain forecast I just looked at is showing 6-10 inches for all of Texas.  There was one patch of 10-15 inched South of Morgan City La.

Jfc narc. You trying to destroy briskets life? Let me clarify this for you, unbelievable flooding, total loss of all structures, unsurvivable situation. 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is the latest GOES run.  It looks like the thing is falling apart, but It's deceptive.  The colder cloud tops (more intense storm activity) are sparse and wispy, so it almost looks like it's breaking up.  But there is a solid layer of rain under those cold tops, the storm still has the "saucer" shape.  But it's good to see those wispier colder clouds, means that the storm isn't real intense.   But for sure the circulation is far from a "complete clock".  It's more like a loosey-goosey N (eastern sid) to S (western side) tubish kind of flow.  Ladies and germs, that's a fairly textbook tropical storm.  When that tightens up like a clockspring and completes the circulation, you have a hurricane (which is why TS symbols have a "hollow" circle vs. a hurricane's filled-in one.  Because the circulation isn't closed - yet.

However... you can clearly see a swath of dry air (dark arced streak) running up from SW to NE and up around in the last few frames.  That ain't good for these storms.  But it won't last long.

Tomorrow I expect it to be but still not get real bad.  It's fighting a lot of stuff right now but is trying to stay together.  It will.  First runs at sunlight or even eariler will show a re-blowup of storms first on the east side, then on the west.  I'll post that tomorrow.

GIF:

GOES16-SP-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

Edited by phdhorn
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tejas60

tejas60 3534

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, phdhorn said:

This is a nice purty, cool color running (i.e. continually updated) look at Beta.  Looks like it stayed out in the Gulf over night.  i think Rip mentioned yesterday a buncha dry air was funneling in from the SW and it seems that's the case.  The western half of the storm is nothing right now.  This is why it didn't inundate the Texas coast overnight.  Most of it was in the NOLA area.  That thing looks pretty well east of where I thought it would be right now.  But I trust it'll move west as they say.  Or not.  Or maybe.  Or screw it.

BTW this picture should change through the day as it's updated, making all of the above outdated.  Which it likely will, duh.

(BTW the center of the storm is somwhere to the lower left of the cluster of storms in the current pic (not sure how it'll look in 8 hours)).

Let's see what today brings. 

 GOES16-SP-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

this is kickass. thanks phd.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Posted (edited)

BTW, you will always see a clockwise flow of clouds that seems kind of weird.  This is somewhat fascinating.  The reason is... because aloft, a hurricane is actually a high pressure system.  Yep, that's right.  The kind that gives us sunny clear days.  What gives?

Well, hurricanes funnel air in and force it downward, and that air sinks around the eye.  This is why the eye is clear and calm.  The pressure aloft is much higher than the rest of the storm, so no clouds can form..  Sinking air prohibits cloud formation.  But that cylinder of air in the eye remains warm (it gets sun) and therefore the air stays warm up to the top (around 10 miles).  The surrounding air is cooler so it continues to spiral counterclockwise.  But when that air is forced up and outward above the hurricane, it cools, and spirals clockwise because the high pressure in the eye cylinder forces it to.  So this is why when you look at animation of a hurricane you see clouds going in opposite directions.  Warmer air gets pushed aloft, cools, but spirals outward, and eventually clouds form when the air gets far enough away from the high pressure high over the eye - this is why often you'll see those counterclockwise clouds  way out at the edges.  Meanwhile, the storm below it does its counterclockwise thing.

These things are very complex.

Edited by phdhorn
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tejas60

tejas60 3534

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

BTW, you will always see a clockwise flow of clouds that seems kind of weird.  This is somewhat fascinating.  The reason is... because aloft, a hurricane is actually a high pressure system.  Yep, that's right.  The kind that gives us sunny clear days.  What gives?

Well, hurricanes funnel air in and force it downward, and that air sinks around the eye.  This is why the eye is clear and calm.  The pressure aloft is much higher than the rest of the storm, so no clouds can form..  Sinking air prohibits cloud formation.  But that cylinder of air in the eye remains warm (it gets sun) and therefore the air stays warm up to the top (around 10 miles).  The surrounding air is cooler so it continues to spiral counterclockwise.  But when that air is forced up and outward above the hurricane, it cools, and spirals clockwise because the high pressure in the eye cylinder forces it to.  So this is why when you look at animation of a hurricane you see clouds going in opposite directions.  Warmer air gets pushed aloft, cools, but spirals outward, and eventually clouds form when the air gets far enough away from the high pressure high over the eye - this is why often you'll see those counterclockwise clouds  way out at the edges.  Meanwhile, the storm below it does its counterclockwise thing.

These things are very complex.

look at the big brain on phd

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kevwun

kevwun 15840

Posted
Posted (edited)

The thing that really aggravates is that storm surge predictions are still a little iffy and just 1-2 feet can make a huge difference in how much of an area floods.  There was no way to be sure, but you're still an asshole because reasons.

Edited by kevwun
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wildcat09

wildcat09 29365

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, phdhorn said:

BTW, you will always see a clockwise flow of clouds that seems kind of weird.  This is somewhat fascinating.  The reason is... because aloft, a hurricane is actually a high pressure system.  Yep, that's right.  The kind that gives us sunny clear days.  What gives?

Well, hurricanes funnel air in and force it downward, and that air sinks around the eye.  This is why the eye is clear and calm.  The pressure aloft is much higher than the rest of the storm, so no clouds can form..  Sinking air prohibits cloud formation.  But that cylinder of air in the eye remains warm (it gets sun) and therefore the air stays warm up to the top (around 10 miles).  The surrounding air is cooler so it continues to spiral counterclockwise.  But when that air is forced up and outward above the hurricane, it cools, and spirals clockwise because the high pressure in the eye cylinder forces it to.  So this is why when you look at animation of a hurricane you see clouds going in opposite directions.  Warmer air gets pushed aloft, cools, but spirals outward, and eventually clouds form when the air gets far enough away from the high pressure high over the eye - this is why often you'll see those counterclockwise clouds  way out at the edges.  Meanwhile, the storm below it does its counterclockwise thing.

These things are very complex.

Fuckin nerd.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Latest (of course they all update to the same sequence but why go looking for it?)
GOES16-SP-GEOCOLOR-600x600.gif

As said last night, the thing degraded quite a bit overnight, but right on time, the convection has started again.  It's almost impossible to tell where the center is now but it looks like it's slightly in the upper right quadrant of this circle of thunderstorms.  I expect it to get better defined today, though how much is unclear.  Still think it'll be between a TS and a Cat 1.

Pretty much every model now has it making the sharp right at Albequerque (or like just west of Corpus) and moving NE just inside the coast.  Austin gonna be a rainy day into tomorrow.  Not drenching but yeah, periods of moderate showers.  More if/whenever/later.

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