2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

[Bert Orange 1120]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

So what are the guesses for the 10AM update? Laura shifting west? 

Almost guaranteed the cone shifts westward. 

[Captainant 27682]

Just now, InkaUtexas said:

So what are the guesses for the 10AM update? Laura shifting west? 

[BrickTop 477]

What’s funny is they’re saying they don’t want to put another 7 million people in play(Houston area) unless they have to, yet they’ve been liberal enough bouncing that cone around over the last few

[ChickenSandwich 9843]

3 hours ago, tejas60 said:

Galveston just issued a mandatory evacuation by noon today.

This. Fuck. Good luck boat. Stand fast

[WBT 20628]

Westward shift followed by panic in Houston

[BrickTop 477]

My chief won’t believe it until the nhc says it

[LonghornJones 837]

My guess is TX/LA border..

[Helobious 9463]

Where do we place our bets? I say this doesn’t shift west, hits TX/LA border as a Cat 2. There’s a direct negative correlation between how catastrophic a storm is predicted to be and how bad it actually is. Everytime.

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LonghornJones 837]

1 minute ago, Helobious said:

Where do we place our bets? I say this doesn’t shift west, hits TX/LA border as a Cat 2. There’s a direct negative correlation between how catastrophic a storm is predicted to be and how bad it actually is. Everytime.

This guy gets it.

[pearlandhorn 3274]

Even though he moved to Denver, I still follow Brooks - former meteorologist on KHOU.  I watch him when I'm visiting Colorado which is pretty often.  He still provides updates on the gulf as he was here through Harvey.  Really good dude:

 

https://twitter.com/BrooksWeather/status/1298274963791605760?s

 

[Bert Orange 1120]

Well, it moved west. A mm. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

No change in the NHC path but hurricane warning up from San Luis to Morgan City and tropical storm warning now for all of Houston metro counties. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

1 minute ago, Bert Orange said:

Well, it moved west. A mm. 

Until the GFS and the other models start moving west, the NHC is staying East. Either a big coup for the Euro or a big bust. I’m very curious to see the next GFS and Euro runs the next 2-3 hours and see who blinks. 

[Gatorubet 30254]

Levi Cowen at Tropical Tidbits is very good. He nailed Marco’s demise the day before.

Yesterday he was worried about Laura intensifying and said folks in Texas needed to look out for a west shift.

[Mack Tripper 696]

The Euro model nailed Harvey, which was an anomalous storm, and was an outlier then too at times. That said, I hope it's wrong this time. 

Edited August 25, 2020 by Mack Tripper

[CleverNickname 1320]

Hopefully it stays right at the border. But if Laura ends up nailing Houston and they don't shift guidance until late tonight and people feel like they only thought they were truly in danger for one day - people are going to be hurt and upset. OTOH most people I know down there are vets of Ike and leaving today. 

[Pimphand 5780]

When has the Euro model been wrong lately? It usually has been the best...

[The Royal We 3072]

The Space City Weather guys seem like they are torn - I think they believe in the Euro model more than any of the others, but they don't want to contradict the NHS on such a consequential forecast. 

Here's to hoping it stays east.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

[Trey3216 15349]

7 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

The Space City Weather guys seem like they are torn - I think they believe in the Euro model more than any of the others, but they don't want to contradict the NHS on such a consequential forecast. 

Here's to hoping it stays east.

Yep.  The last radar image I looked at (about 15 minutes ago) showed a wobble north, but that will coincide with a wobble west as the storm starts to strengthen and organize now that it's in the open water.  How big of a wobble west will be pretty damn telling with where this one's gonna go.  The bigger the wobble, the more Texas the storm gets. 

[NeverMarryAStripper 21909]

I don't feel like dealing with this shit right now, so my prediction is that it stays east and doesn't intensify past a cat 2.

Edited August 25, 2020 by NeverMarryAStripper

[Brisketexan 105161]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The bigger the wobble, the more Texas the storm gets. 

That's a pretty Texas sentence, right there.

[tokamak 6432]

5 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

Let's all pause a moment to enjoy the fact that the most powerful supercomputers on Earth are furiously churning around the clock in order to generate big throbbing rainbow dick pics.

[Bert Orange 1120]

7 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

It’s actually directly on the TX/LA border. The higher winds to right of center are what are depicted. 

[Bert Orange 1120]

[Lobwedgephil 1139]

7 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

Euro will likely shift a little east, as it seems to during the day. It if doesn't, well shit. 

[Telegraph_it 3358]

9 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Jesus Christ the 12z GFS is back a little more East into Louisiana. That’s why the NHC didn’t move. 

New Euro coming in a couple of hours. 
 

Euro cannot get here fast enough. 

[WBT 20628]

26 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

But if Laura ends up nailing Houston and they don't shift guidance until late tonight and people feel like they only thought they were truly in danger for one day - people are going to be hurt and upset.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Qpo

10 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

It’s actually directly on the TX/LA border. The higher winds to right of center are what are depicted. 

You’re right. Not as far east as I thought.

Edited August 25, 2020 by crimsonlonghorn

[Hanrahan 1306]

News update:

 

[pearlandhorn 3274]

Camera dude is a surly member/shag member.

[HoustonFrog 368]

What time is Euro running?

And yeah the Space City guys are sort of punting at this point, reading between the lines they seem stumped by NHC not moving the forecast but they won’t formally contradict it, and instead giving guidance on various scenarios.

Unfortunately decisions have to be made right now for people

[Leeroy Jenkins 2409]

1 hour ago, Hagbard Celine said:

@leroy

If we want to get technical, the WP-3D is a variant of the P-3 which is a variant of the L-188 Electra, all of which share the same wings and Allison engines.

They're Electras to me, dammit. 

i didn't know about the fuselage hack, was that for the P-3 or just the WP-3D ?

All P-3 variants.  There were some structural changes to the wings as well to support hard points.  

[Sbbruin 21863]

5 minutes ago, Hanrahan said:

News update:

 

Is that @Ghost of LLin his pedobear costume?

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

Just now, Leeroy Jenkins said:

All P-3 variants.  There were some structural changes to the wings as well to support hard points.  

Listen to this man - he's P-Med.

[Goofyboy 3293]

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

[Mack Tripper 696]

This is a much smaller storm than Ike, but yes parts of all those counties will get slammed. 

[crash_davis 23114]

bodies in trees and shit.

[miguelito 11266]

Y'all need to be preparing for one big ass blast.

 

[gmr548 16583]

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Idk where San Louis is but I'm pretty sure Houston is fine if it hits there.

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

12 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Cat 4 coming up that way means 140 MPH sustained winds and gusts approaching 200 MPH. Utter destruction and downed trees everywhere, especially close to the coast. Not quite as bad north in Fort Bend and Harris but still plenty bad. 

[crimsonlonghorn 2306]

Roads are starting to back up towards the coast and also out of Beaumont. People need to be headed east and west and south and not just north. 

[Pancho 44860]

Tolls are free in Houston starting now. 

[kevwun 15806]

Would definitely avoid north since that's the one thing all the models agree on.

[UTexasFight 9507]

This blast from the past popped up from 2017 today.

fitting

 

 

[tejas60 3533]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

22 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Idk where San Louis is but I'm pretty sure Houston is fine if it hits there.

nvm. iswydt

Edited August 25, 2020 by tejas60

[VirginiaLonghorn 4777]

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's a pretty Texas sentence, right there.

Would have received bonus points if he’d put “fixin’ to” in there somewhere. 

[Bert Orange 1120]

19 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

32 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

Basically if this thing comes ashore around San Louis, everything in the greater Houston area is going to get nailed? Fort Bend, Harris, Liberty, etc etc??

Idk where San Louis is but I'm pretty sure Houston is fine if it hits there.

Mizzurah

[Celery Man 20973]

silver lining