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Blastfurnace 2020: The Forcefield strikes back

Kavinsky

By Kavinsky
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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Gardner Barnes said:

Second hottest August on record in Austin so far.
 

 


It will be interesting to see if we hit daily 100 +degrees the rest of the month. Anyone know where they puts us on the most 100 degree day ranking?

a1811c51f2e9e0c8e3ad09710c34bab7.jpg

 

https://www.kut.org/post/hey-austin-heat-not-normal-its-starting-feel-way

By the end of this weekend, Austinites can expect to have sweated through more than two weeks in a row of triple-digit heat. Texas summers are supposed to be hot. But there’s nothing normal about heat waves like this one.

Temperature records for Austin go back 1898. In the first hundred years of record keeping, triple-digit heat waves lasted 10 days or longer only eight times. 

But since the turn of this century, there have been 14 such heat waves, including our current one.  If all you’ve known is Austin weather for the last 20 years, you’d be forgiven for thinking this kind of thing is normal, even though it really isn’t.

Another way to look at the trends is not in terms of heat waves, but in the raw number of triple-digit days.

Victor Murphy with the National Weather Service says meteorologists look at temperature patterns in 30-year increments to determine what a statistically “average” year might look like.

From 1971 to 2000, Austin averaged just 12 triple-digit days a year. Sounds good, right?

If you move ahead one decade and look at the time between 1981 to 2010, the average number of 100-degree days goes up to 18. It’s a 50% increase, and that 30-year average has kept increasing by around 50% every 10 years since.

So far, Austin is averaging about 38 triple-digit days a year in the first 20 years of this century, up from 12 in the latter part of the 1900s.

“If we assume a 50% increase 10 years from now, that would then become a yearly average of 42 when the new 2001-2030 normals are released,” Murphy wrote to KUT in an email.

“The current 10 year normal [of triple-digit days] from 2011-2020 is indeed 42,” he added.

(Ending the story here as further discussion brings up a climatic phenomenon that some might perceive to be CR.)

 

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Steel Shank
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I know I drove by there in the afternoon with my mixtape.

MissingInAction
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My complex is overflowing with massive oak trees so it is easy to keep her in the shade. All the sidewalks here are shaded. Some dip fuck who moved here from califuck, never experienced a Texas s

Orange&White
Orange&White

@Hate @bolverk I emailed the Austin/San Antonio NWS office  

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5528

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

That is weird that we are both getting data from the same source and getting two different numbers.

If what I and Bolverk posted is to be true, then the temp at 1:51 PM was 95 degrees. It then (allegedly) rose to 101 at 2:32 PM and then dropped back down to 97 degrees at 2:51 PM

I just have a hard time imaging the temperature increasing 6 degrees in 41 minutes and then dropping by 4 degrees in the next  19 minutes. It makes zero sense.

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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

That is weird that we are both getting data from the same source and getting two different numbers.

If what I and Bolverk posted is to be true, then the temp at 1:51 PM was 95 degrees. It then (allegedly) rose to 101 at 2:32 PM and then dropped back down to 97 degrees at 2:51 PM

Yeah, it's weird but that was the "official" high temp recorded by the NWS for that location. It is what it is. Ascribing her intent for reporting that piece of data to viewers as "sensationalizing" like she was stretching the truth is where I take issue.

I don't see the problem with saying we're hopefully at the tail end of a historically long heat wave - the equivalent of which only occurred 8 times in the first 100 years of readings but has now been occurring with such increased frequency that it's becoming the new normal in this city (14 times in the last 20 years) for a likely combination of reasons.

Gardner Barnes was remarking on the heat wave and how it stacks up, so I responded with a story I saw earlier this morning and replied accordingly that provided some context.

Let's just agree that it sucks and hope it ends soon.

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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Hate said:

Here is a link for yesterday from the NWS. The official high at Camp Mabry was recorded to be 97 degrees at 2:51 PM. I don’t know what the “6 hour min and max” recordings are. Maybe Frankie...err,@phdhorn can explain that.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KATT.html

Did you not see the screenshot I posted above?

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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

I did...but are you not looking at the link I am providing as well? And following the timeline that I laid out? It is also from the NWS.

I did and stated that it was "weird" and, not-being-a-meteorologist myself, can only point to the official high that the NWS is reporting. I suppose though that temperatures can spike during a blazing hot August afternoon in Austin. I also assume that it was the same temperature gauge used for both links.

But my question was directed at @Hate who responded with that link without acknowledging mine where it reads in plain black and white English text that the maximum observed value was recorded at 101 degrees Fahrenheit. 

Y'all are the ones calling into question what a professional meteorologist was repeating, and I simply provided the link to the official NWS data, as well as a screenshot showing where she likely got her numbers as they line up precisely for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. I cannot, however, speak intelligently about a temperature timeline from throughout the day other than as a layperson.

Edit: I mean, shit, if you're so invested in this mystery why don't you tweet the meteo both links and ask her to describe the process for an apparent spike in temps. Report back if you get an answer.

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted

I responded with the link out of confusion because I thought yesterday was not very hot in comparison to what it had been the several days prior. The link I provided shows the air temperature to be recorded at 97 degrees at 2:15 PM. Later in the day(6:15 pm) there are recordings of “max” of 101 at the same time the air temperature was 92 degrees. Why is there a 9 degree difference there? That is my question.

 

Edit: and keep your plain black and white passive aggressive bullshit insults to yourself

 

Edit #2: I should say 4 degree temperature difference between the reported high for that tone frame and the max high for the 6 hours of that time frame.

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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hate said:

I responded with the link out of confusion because I thought yesterday was not very hot in comparison to what it had been the several days prior. The link I provided shows the air temperature to be recorded at 97 degrees at 2:15 PM. Later in the day(6:15 pm) there are recordings of “max” of 101 at the same time the air temperature was 92 degrees. Why is there a 9 degree difference there? That is my question.

All I can say is that the 101 temperature was recorded and 2:32 pm yesterday afternoon. Earlier, at 1:51, it was 95. Later, at 2:51, it was 97.

It would appear their equipment registered a brief spike in the temperature during that hour. That is all we can say.

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1778

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, bolverk said:

All I can say is that the 101 temperature was recorded and 2:32 pm yesterday afternoon. Earlier, at 1:51, it was 95. Later, at 2:51, it was 97.

It would appear their equipment registered a brief spike in the temperature during that hour. That is all we can say.

Jumpin Jim saw that it wasn't going to get to 100 yesterday so he ran out to Camp Mabry and stuck a lighter next to the thermometer to keep his 100 temp streak going

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
All I can say is that the 101 temperature was recorded and 2:32 pm yesterday afternoon. Earlier, at 1:51, it was 95. Later, at 2:51, it was 97.
It would appear their equipment registered a brief spike in the temperature during that hour. That is all we can say.

No, that is all you can say. Others may express some intellectual curiosity as to what the process is for officially recording the daily high temperature when the data seems to suggest something different. The process appears to be to record the temperature at 51 after each hour as the link I provided illustrates. At 10:51 am the temperature was recorded to be 89 degrees under clear skies. One hour later under partly cloudy skies the temperature was reported to be 95 under partly cloudy skies? And then one hour later under clear skies again the temperature dropped to 92 with a six hour high temperature reported to be 97? And then a similarly strange reported high of 101 over the next six hours when none of the recorded highs at the :51 increment ever were within 4 degrees of that?

Now, I’m a weather dork so I enjoy looking at these kinds of things and I wonder what the process is for determining the official high and low for a particular day in a particular city. I don’t care about some agenda. I’m genuinely curios as to what happened because it doesn’t seem to make sense. So once again, take your passive aggressive black and white “all we can say” bullshit and go fuck yourself.
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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Hate said:


No, that is all you can say. Others may express some intellectual curiosity as to what the process is for officially recording the daily high temperature when the data seems to suggest something different. The process appears to be to record the temperature at 51 after each hour as the link I provided illustrates. At 10:51 am the temperature was recorded to be 89 degrees under clear skies. One hour later under partly cloudy skies the temperature was reported to be 95 under partly cloudy skies? And then one hour later under clear skies again the temperature dropped to 92 with a six hour high temperature reported to be 97? And then a similarly strange reported high of 101 over the next six hours when none of the recorded highs at the :51 increment ever were within 4 degrees of that?

Now, I’m a weather dork so I enjoy looking at these kinds of things and I wonder what the process is for determining the official high and low for a particular day in a particular city. I don’t care about some agenda. I’m genuinely curios as to what happened because it doesn’t seem to make sense. So once again, take your passive aggressive black and white “all we can say” bullshit and go fuck yourself.

Bro, calm down.

Lack of intellectual curiosity? Anything we say is sheer speculation and conjecture. I even suggested O&W tweet out the question to the meteorologist to ask about the "weird" result (I've now said it was weird three times on this page). Reaching out to PhD was also good suggestion. I suppose in my free time I can look up weird daytime temperature spikes to see if that's a thing in the meantime.

Passive aggressive? This whole thing got started because of some butthurt over a question that Gardner Barnes posed about the severity of this heat wave. You questioned the KVUE meteorologist's report on the high temperature. I responded with the official figure provided my the NWS. Y'all both responded with a temperature timeline with one-hour gaps. That high temperature was registered during one of those gaps.

Me, a layman, I can say nothing else as I have no expertise. But, like you, I do have an interest as evidenced by participating in this thread. I hope PhD can chime in soon with a plausible explanation for the spike, the faulty recording, or the "sensationalization" of high temperature readings.

(We're living in a time of seemingly endless lock-down under an oppressive heat-dome with a forever off-season, so I'm not going to take your "go fuck yourself" personally. Or maybe I will and just say "fuck you" back.)

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted

How else am I supposed to interpret your “plain black and white” reference as if I can’t read what you posted.

But I am absolutely willing to let bygones be bygones as I have no malice towards most of the people here, yourself included.

At any rate, hopefully [mention]phdhorn [/mention] can shed a little light in the discrepancies as I am genuinely curious.

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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hate said:

How else am I supposed to interpret your “plain black and white” reference as if I can’t read what you posted.

But I am absolutely willing to let bygones be bygones as I have no malice towards most of the people here, yourself included.

At any rate, hopefully [mention]phdhorn [/mention] can shed a little light in the discrepancies as I am genuinely curious.

Given that Camp Mabry is in an urban environment, is it possible that it could have short-term heat bursts with it being so near MoPac? That's about as far as I can go with any speculation about the temperature (if indeed the gauge is calibrated correctly).

I did read about a weird "heat burst" phenomenon that's usually the result of collapsing thunderstorm.

Quote

 

In meteorology, a heat burst is a rare atmospheric phenomenon characterized by gusty winds along with a rapid increase in temperature and decrease in dew point (moisture). Heat bursts typically occur during night-time and are associated with decaying thunderstorms.[1]

Although this phenomenon is not fully understood, it is theorized that the event is caused when rain evaporates (virga) into a parcel of cold, dry air high in the atmosphere- making the air denser than its surroundings.[2] The parcel descends rapidly, warming due to compression, overshoots its equilibrium level and reaches the surface, similar to a downburst.[3]

Recorded temperatures during heat bursts have reached well above 40 °C (104 °F), sometimes rising by 10 °C (18 °F) or more within only a few minutes. More extreme events have also been documented, where temperatures have been reported to exceed 50 °C (122 °F). However, such extreme events have never been officially verified. Heat bursts are also characterized by extremely dry air and are sometimes associated with very strong, even damaging, winds.

 

Now, clearly, we didn't have a collapsing thunderstorm on top of us yesterday, but there had been storms in the area earlier that day/night. So maybe related? I dunno, but that's why I know I'm out of my element and can only speculate wildly.

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9000

Posted
Posted

 

7 hours ago, Gardner Barnes said:

Second hottest August on record in Austin so far.
 

 


It will be interesting to see if we hit daily 100 +degrees the rest of the month. Anyone know where they puts us on the most 100 degree day ranking?

a1811c51f2e9e0c8e3ad09710c34bab7.jpg

 

Sux 4 y'all.

Here on the dry side of the Metroplex we had a high in the low 90's and a low-60's dew point yesterday.  Felt great.  Today it hit 97 but the dew point was mid-50's, so it still felt fine.  Out and about all day without sweating.  

Latitudes have consequences.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

The "100 streak" was broken at ABIA yesterday but not Mabry.  It was 103 officially.

The 6 hour minimum and maximum are what they say... temp readings are taken about same time each hour.  The minimum and maximum readings in that period are noted.  These go on 4 daily reports (every 6 hours, duh!).  Why they do this is to have more data points to measure temp evolution during daily cycles (for analysis and stuff).  Makes things more accurate say if a T-storm comes in and drops temps 25 degrees at 3 p.m.  Used for this and that measurements.

Not particularly interested in 100-degree days as meaning all that much, except it's hotter than 99 degrees.  Does it "mean" anything?  Maybe.  And maybe what it "means" is not what people think.  Man that's a whole 'nother topic.  As for me, using temperature alone as a "gauge" of "badness" is very incomplete.  Also crucial is for instance the moisture in the ground going into the summer and the general condition of ecosystem.  We actually had a pretty nice spell of moisture to last us until about now, not bad.  Some years like 2011 it dried up completely by April and we were in serious shit.  That's only happened once between then and now.  There are so many factors to consider that temp alone is meh to me.  Yeah it's hot in August.  Yeah it's been a lot hotter than average in August the past 20 years.  And yeah, Austin more than any other Texas city has grown well over 50% in population and buildout, and unlike Dallas and San Antonio which have something like only 2-3 summers since 2000 in their most 100 degree days, we've had about 9 or so.  And, it's been proven that expansive steel/concrete coverage increases temps a lot, duh.  You'll notice that in a lot of areas right around Austin, the temps have stayed below 100.  But now you have temps taken in places that have seen far more growth, traffic, and expansion, and well, whatever other factors influence temps, if you don't count the explosive growth of Austin as a big part of it, you ain't playin' with the right dice.

That's all I'll say about temps for now.  It's August.  It's hot.  It'll start getting under 100° eventually.  Last year it took 3/4ths of September to get there.  This year?  I bet a bit less.  I think it'll come down into the 90's starting about Labor Day or just after.  If I win I get money from everyone.  If I lose I get - nothing.  And like it.

Edited by phdhorn
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bolverk

bolverk 29683

Posted
Posted (edited)

I was thinking about this a little more, and my mind started wandering to growing up in West Texas (low humidity environment like yesterday here). I recalled those moments standing in a field or on the range and being able to perceive fluctuating waves of heat floating over a flat landscape - almost like how a mirage might feel if you could sense it on your skin. It seems like it sometimes was accompanied by hot a breeze.

Maybe in the right conditions, heat can radiate, swelter, and bubble along a dry flat patch of earth. That could potentially explain the kind of temperature variation detected over a short period at Mabry, which is next to MoPac and in the middle of the Austin heat island.

Edited by bolverk
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ztejas

ztejas 43454

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Gardner Barnes said:

Second hottest August on record in Austin so far.
 

 


It will be interesting to see if we hit daily 100 +degrees the rest of the month. Anyone know where they puts us on the most 100 degree day ranking?

a1811c51f2e9e0c8e3ad09710c34bab7.jpg

 

The way this bitch sensationalizes the temperature with emojis like it's somehow exciting makes me sick. 

It's not cool (literally and figuratively), it's getting worse, and at somepoint it's going to do a lot of us in. And we wonder why younger generations are struggling so heavily with mental health issues. It's because of shit like this. 

Go ahead and neg me and tell me to take it to the CR. I don't give a shit. I love a good conspiracy or alternate truth as much or more than any person on this website, but this is not a conspiracy, it's not politics, it's pure, unadulterated and unbiased science looking at millions of years of climate data. I just don't have patience for people that don't beleive in this shit or treat it like it's a joke. It isn't politics to tell a flat-earther that they're a fucking idiot. It shouldn't be politics to acknowledge that we have fucked up our environment. 

Bryan Cranston Mic Drop GIF

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Orange&White

Orange&White 5528

Posted
Posted

@Hate @bolverk

I emailed the Austin/San Antonio NWS office

Quote

Thanks for the question, Orange&White. Yes, this temperature reading is likely accurate and you interpret it correctly. In this type of environment with light or calm winds and sunny skies, as the sun beats down on the ground the atmosphere begins to vigorously mix in the vertical direction and can lead to pretty decent temperature changes over a short time period. It looks like Bergstrom topped out at 98, and a three degree difference between the two sites is pretty normal this time of year.

On a related note, check out these observations from Death Valley the other day when the high temperature reached 130 degrees, the hottest temperature measured on earth since 1913!

 

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
[mention=22]Hate[/mention] [mention=406]bolverk[/mention]
I emailed the Austin/San Antonio NWS office
Thanks for the question, Orange&White. Yes, this temperature reading is likely accurate and you interpret it correctly. In this type of environment with light or calm winds and sunny skies, as the sun beats down on the ground the atmosphere begins to vigorously mix in the vertical direction and can lead to pretty decent temperature changes over a short time period. It looks like Bergstrom topped out at 98, and a three degree difference between the two sites is pretty normal this time of year.

On a related note, check out these observations from Death Valley the other day when the high temperature reached 130 degrees, the hottest temperature measured on earth since 1913!
 

Perfect! Thanks for sharing that information. It seems to me though that it would be more beneficial to have the official monitoring station be in a more consistent area that wouldn’t be subject to the constant variables like traffic and concrete heating.
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted

Believe it or not, a "cold" front came through yesterday.  LOL, in August, that's why the temp right now is "only" 101° (and will probably go up at least another degree before sunset).  However you could feel it - temps this a.m. were down to 73° due to the drier air - from the north, to boot.  When I ran this a.m. it was noticably less oppressive.  Yeah yeah, ol' Mr. Sol did his thing today and the temps went up.  But at least this little weird thing (any front from the north is pretty unusual in August) that the high is still out west and with it centered there, the door opened for drier and well microscopically "cooler" weather.

One thing to look for in the next 2 weeks or so is this summer pattern of the high alternating between the 4 corners area and us is for it to finally poop out.  Then fall is here. Plus there is a purty good chance sumpin' from the Gulf will do sumpin' next week. Yeah when it comes to tropical weather the Austin forcefield laughs at storms, but at least it means spotty showers and better rain chances all around, along with a bit of slippage in temps.  I'm on board that the first of that trio out in the Atlantic is gonna head somewhere up here (the other likely up the Atlantic coast, and the third who knows, up your mom's tookus for all I know).

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