Blastfurnace 2020: The Forcefield strikes back

[Hate 20108]

Here is the latest 10 day forecast for the Houston area. Next Thursday looks perfect!

[dingleberryswitzer 2724]

Never heard of nutmeg and cinnamon in dumplings.  Salt, pepper and chicken, biscuits.  Maaaybe some onion in there but I don't sweat if I forget.  Are there really people that put more than that?  I think that would change it from chicken and dumplings to some sort of weird hippie soup.

[gsoda3 3262]

6 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Never heard of nutmeg and cinnamon in dumplings.  Salt, pepper and chicken, biscuits.  Maaaybe some onion in there but I don't sweat if I forget.  Are there really people that put more than that?  I think that would change it from chicken and dumplings to some sort of weird hippie soup.

i do sometimes.  it's a shortcut to roasting a chicken with rosemary/cinnamon/onion aromatics and using that meat in the chicken and dumplings.  

[WhatTheBuck 28783]

2 hours ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Never heard of nutmeg and cinnamon in dumplings. 

What about apple dumplings?

[strangulation! 1716]

2 hours ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Never heard of nutmeg and cinnamon in dumplings.  Salt, pepper and chicken, biscuits.  Maaaybe some onion in there but I don't sweat if I forget.  Are there really people that put more than that?  I think that would change it from chicken and dumplings to some sort of weird hippie soup.

put some green chiles in there

[Js1 85348]

3 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

yeah yeah yeah.  my wife laughed at me too

Yeah but she does that every night I’m sure 

[gsoda3 3262]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah but she does that every night I’m sure 

[UT_OB1 2223]

11 hours ago, Hate said:

Here is the latest 10 day forecast for the Houston area. Next Thursday looks perfect!

They haven’t backed off their Wed cool down arrival date yet.  

 

 

[Storm the Field 5294]

7 days out and the GFS models are still sticking with a solid front pushing through sometime next Wednesday afternoon. 

Big question seems to be just how much temperature drops. Most forecasts seems to have temps dropping to around 85/70, though some are more aggressive on the lows dropping into the 60's. 

[ztejas 43454]

Just wanted to say that today has been lovely.

[UT_OB1 2223]

47 minutes ago, ztejas said:

Just wanted to say that today has been lovely.

Yeah heat index has only gotten up to 105 here.  Got at least another 8 degrees to go before it becomes uncomfortable.  

[atomheartbevo 89675]

1 hour ago, ztejas said:

Just wanted to say that today has been lovely.

At one point earlier, it was in the 70s.  Only 83 right now.

[Trey3216 15346]

Still 77 here.    Been glorious since the rain quit 

Edited September 2, 2020 by Trey3216

[Post Oak 20217]

2 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

7 days out and the GFS models are still sticking with a solid front pushing through sometime next Wednesday afternoon. 

Big question seems to be just how much temperature drops. Most forecasts seems to have temps dropping to around 85/70, though some are more aggressive on the lows dropping into the 60's. 

 

[Trey3216 15346]

I think the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year.  
 

 

[Trey3216 15346]

Gonna hit up H-E-B for some chili meat.  

[phdhorn 6224]

28 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I think the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year.  
 

 

however, the "it's so cold it's unbearable" thread should start up once the temperature hits about 60.

[Biff Tannen 45691]

4 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

however, the "it's so cold it's unbearable" thread should start up once the temperature hits about 60.

Please. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

65

[Guest Lobo]

I'm gonna enjoy this rain, maybe the weekend will be tolerable, and really looking forward to this mid-week cold front next week.  

But whenever you're ready, would appreciate your back-half of September forecast.  The few free sites I'm looking at say still hot and kinda dry.  Should be a nice Autumn but we ain't done with the dry heat.  I used to just give a shit about my lawn, but now I gotta pay attention to the elements for our garage learning POD.  I can't wait not having to wake up at 5am to open the two back doors and start the fans and crack all the car doors so as to release the hot air.  Anyway, thanks for the rain Roosevelt E. Roosevelt. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

39 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I think the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year.  
 

 

You know better than this.

[Neonmoon 38129]

[texhorn 351]

however, the "it's so cold it's unbearable" thread should start up once the temperature hits about 60.

I’d give my left nut for 60 degree weather right now.

[Hate 20108]

8 minutes ago, texhorn said:

I’d give my left nut for 60 degree weather right now.

Prepare your nutsack then.  Every weather model is now in on it. It's only a matter if how cool it is going to get.  I feel so confident in this that if it doesn't pan out, @immamac will have to ban bad teammate from ever posting again.

[atomheartbevo 89675]

Weather.com says

• Sat - 90
• Sun - 92
• Mon - 92
• Tue - 88
• Wed - 75
• Thu - 80
• Fri - 84
• Sat - 85
• Sun - 86
• Mon - 88
• Tue - 88
• Wed - 90
• Thu - 91

[ztejas 43454]

9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I think the Blastfurnace is officially dead for the year.  
 

 

What's the record low for this early in September? Can't be much lower than 55 I would think.

[phdhorn 6224]

18 hours ago, Lobo said:

I'm gonna enjoy this rain, maybe the weekend will be tolerable, and really looking forward to this mid-week cold front next week.  

But whenever you're ready, would appreciate your back-half of September forecast.  The few free sites I'm looking at say still hot and kinda dry.  Should be a nice Autumn but we ain't done with the dry heat.  I used to just give a shit about my lawn, but now I gotta pay attention to the elements for our garage learning POD.  I can't wait not having to wake up at 5am to open the two back doors and start the fans and crack all the car doors so as to release the hot air.  Anyway, thanks for the rain Roosevelt E. Roosevelt. 

It's September in Austin, so no one should hold any illusions that it's suddenly springtime in Vancouver.  Add to this that our fall weather isn't exactly everywhere in the state - we were a cool donut hole in the middle of a lot of mid-upper 90's around the state.  However, this weather pattern IS more reflective of fall - this isn't a low system sweeping by only to be replaced by another hot high, it's a trough of low pressure that's sort of just sitting there.  Consequently with the flow pattern we're getting lots of lift and instability right smack over ATX, which will make it for sure a break from the summer.

We saw last year where September can be brutal, too - it was over 100° something like 18 days (too lazy to go back), so no, don't expect snowboarders on Lamar just yet.  However, it definitely IS more of a breakup of that summer high.  Whether it'll strengthen again within the next 2 weeks is still up for grabs.

Once we hit October, the position of the earth in its revolution vs. the sun makes it very difficult for temps to get much over the mid-90's.  The light simply isn't intense enough.  So the closer we get to October, the more likely we are to get temps down even below 90°.  Guess we'll see.

The CPC's predictions are amazingly good, as we've seen.  And of course they're calling for that front to be pretty potent next week so you get this:

So kiss a hot streak (not saying it couldn't hit 100° during the next 2 weeks, but certainly saying it won't be day after day... absolutely) good-bye for the next week at least.  What happens mid-Sept and after?  This is CPC again:



Gonna get hotter again.  There is a big high that's going to roast the west.  As you can see we're kinda in the "toss a coin" area.  That simply means which air mass will dominate us?  The cooler stuff in the east or the hotter stuff out west?  My guess is we'll see drier again, warm to hot, maybe mid-upper 90's for a few days, a few 100's but not the unrelenting stuff that makes August August.  It won't be like the current days, that's for sure.  But I think it'll come down to where maybe 100° is the max for Austin.

Keep this in mind, too.. Austin's gotten a lot of 100's in the past few years.  But studies have shown that a good part of this is due to the growth and "heat islands" which can result.  In many locations even within 20 miles of ATX this summer, they've had like half the 100° days that Mabry has had.  In Bee Cave we've had maybe half as much as Austin. San Antonio has had slightly more than their average, Dallas less this summer.  So this is definitely a good chunk of Austin as a bigger, hotter place.

[Guest Lobo]

That looks like we're pretty much "hot as normal" for the back half of September.  I can live with that.  It was last year's non-stop 100 degrees, never under 80 degrees-even at night-all the way until the second weekend of ACL festival when it got crazy cold that weekend (I had to wear a jacket to ACL, never thought I'd do that).  doesn't sound like that's in the cards on the long-term forecast sites, nor with your expertise.  So here's to the rain, to next week's cooling, and a just non-oppressive late September.  About all we can ask for in 2020.  

[Storm the Field 5294]

Latest GFS model still has the front making it to every part of Texas, but Euro has it stalling out just east of I-35. Whichever you rely on, doesn't appear that the coldest air will make it all the way to SETX.

Forecast temps for Thursday (Weather.com)

Austin: 78/59

San Antonio: 79/60

Dallas: 74/60

Houston: 88/69

KHOU is the only outlet I've seen still sticking to low 60's for Houston.

[HoustonFrog 368]

Yeah Houston isn’t going to get anything, like usual. Maybe 2-3 degrees cooler

[Storm the Field 5294]

23 minutes ago, HoustonFrog said:

Yeah Houston isn’t going to get anything, like usual. Maybe 2-3 degrees cooler

This early in September, I'll take any relief whatsoever. A temp drop of even just 4-5 degrees and relative humidity dropping 5% would bring heat indices down by 10-15. Going outside would at least be tolerable again, especially early morning and around dusk.

[Storm the Field 5294]

5 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

Latest GFS model still has the front making it to every part of Texas, but Euro has it stalling out just east of I-35. 

And since this post, the latest EURO update now matches up with GFS, showing a rather strong front making it all the way to TX/LA border by Thursday afternoon. At this point I'd say it's 75% that Houston gets a pretty solid cooldown at end of next week. 95% for Austin. 

Forecasts calling for some utterly crazy temperature swings in the Rockies and the Panhandle.

Casper, WY: 98/59 on Saturday, 39/18 on Tuesday.

Denver: 55 degree drop over the course of Monday 91--->35. Light snow on Tuesday morning.

Amarillo: 97/63 on Monday, 68/36 on Tuesday.

[bschoolprof 6255]

Texas be like

[Storm the Field 5294]

And the rug gets pulled out from under Houston. Both GFS and EURO current runs have this thing petering to our West, just like they were showing on Friday morning. You folks in Austin, SA, Waco, Dallas should still see a noticeable cooldown, but Houston likely gonna have to settle for table scraps.

As of this post, forecasts for this coming Thu-Sun could be described as "better than nothing" with temps of around 91/72 and humidity down to 55%. This early in September, I'd usually be thrilled with a weekend like that, but after seeing models showing 20 degree temp drops and dewpoints in the low 50's, it just seems like a shitty consolation prize.

Oh well, at least I'm headed to Colorado for a week later this month.

 

 

[Rip76 4928]

Yep on the GFS and Euro.

They do come in with a little more precip though.  So it's something.

[Wulaw Horn 19070]

1 hour ago, Storm the Field said:

And the rug gets pulled out from under Houston. Both GFS and EURO current runs have this thing petering to our West, just like they were showing on Friday morning. You folks in Austin, SA, Waco, Dallas should still see a noticeable cooldown, but Houston likely gonna have to settle for table scraps.

As of this post, forecasts for this coming Thu-Sun could be described as "better than nothing" with temps of around 91/72 and humidity down to 55%. This early in September, I'd usually be thrilled with a weekend like that, but after seeing models showing 20 degree temp drops and dewpoints in the low 50's, it just seems like a shitty consolation prize.

Oh well, at least I'm headed to Colorado for a week later this month.

 

 

Boooooooooo.  Boooooooo. 
 

[Superhero 8830]

Friggin’ 106 in SoCal 15 miles from the coastline. 

Still not as hot as 2000 when I bought my house in Austin. It reached 114, and my entire front lawn died. 

[bschoolprof 6255]

We feel really bad for you and your so cal weather.  super bad.  Prayers.  

Edited September 6, 2020 by bschoolprof

[Gil Bang 25960]

120 F in fucking Chino CA.  That't not supposed to happen.  

Fires all over SoCal.  [mention=1357]Sbbruin[/mention] is the smoke blowing the other direction?   

 

The Alpine fire left ash all over my truck this morning.  

I'm 7 mi. from the fucking Pacific Ocean.    I just walked by my WSM on by patio deck.  No, I don't have a fire going. 

 

[Gil Bang 25960]

BTW, Denver is in the high 90's today, expecting snow tomorrow. 

[Pato del Muerto 52504]

Friend of mine posted 111 in Woodland Hills, ca. 

[Sbbruin 21857]

2 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

120 F in fucking Chino CA.  That't not supposed to happen.  

Fires all over SoCal.  [mention=1357]Sbbruin[/mention] is the smoke blowing the other direction?   

 

The Alpine fire left ash all over my truck this morning.  

I'm 7 mi. from the fucking Pacific Ocean.    I just walked by my WSM on by patio deck.  No, I don't have a fire going. 

 

It was 115 in Altadena yesterday when my car was in the shade.  Just came down to San Pedro to escape that bullshit, and it was 103 at 5p.  I have lived in this city my whole life.  These are historic temps.  Apparently it was 103 out at Catalina today.  There is maybe 1 or 2 days per year when it hits 90 out there.  Maybe.  BTW @Gil Bang there was ash all over our neighborhood this afternoon.
 

Edited September 7, 2020 by Sbbruin

[MissingInAction 25087]

So no Catalina wine mixer this year?

[Surly Bevo 24933]

1 minute ago, MissingInAction said:

So no Catalina wine mixer this year?

Prestige Worldwide are in a high risk Covid19 category

[Sbbruin 21857]

42 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

So no Catalina wine mixer this year?

Funny you should ask. Reading The Log yesterday, and my heart sank.

 

[Sbbruin 21857]

My wife just sent me this pic.  
 

[Pato del Muerto 52504]

58 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

So no Catalina wine mixer this year?

It’s the frozen margarita mixer this year. Adapt or die. 

[Gil Bang 25960]

19 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

My wife just sent me this pic.  
 

so she wants new window treatments?  That's gonna be pricey. 

[Trey3216 15346]

I’m very sorry y’all had to put up with several days of this.  We voluntarily put up with 90-120 every year, and we involuntarily  get stuck with weeks at a time where you’re at.   We know how much it sucks, we be been there 

[mchookem 16336]

5 hours ago, Gil Bang said:

BTW, Denver is in the high 90's today, expecting snow tomorrow. 

 

[phdhorn 6224]

As (I) expected, cold front has mitigated.  Will still get here, but weakened.  We'll still feel a nice dry difference, but temps in mid-80's, not low 70's.
Still, it's purty good for early Sept.  Because you know, it's hot in Texas in August.