Blastfurnace 2020: The Forcefield strikes back

[texhorn 351]

When will this fucking summer go away?

Wow that one day in the 70s was nice. Back to summer

[HoustonFrog 368]

Yeah this fucking sucks

[HoustonFrog 368]

Yeah this fucking sucks

[The Ace of Aces 5,184]

Hit 29 last night up here as we are full on in plunging fall temps. Sorry, fellas, that Texas October summer always sucks. 

[UT_OB1 2,223]

While I do enjoy cool to cold weather too, it only sucks if you hate decent weather. Sunny, little rain, and highs that are warm to hot but only last for a few hours make for great weather if you like to get outside and do stuff don’t suck.  This isn’t blast furnace weather. This is “Texas Fall” and it is a pretty good time to be a Texan. 

[swraith 347]

This September and October are the best I can remember for recent Sept/Octobers in Austin (say the last 5 years).  Normally I think of the blast furnace running strong till November.  

[phdhorn 6,224]

Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

[Steamboat1874 4,066]

54 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

Very strange indeed.

I am ready for our first and maybe only freeze of the year.

[Gardner Barnes 1,562]

This September and October are the best I can remember for recent Sept/Octobers in Austin (say the last 5 years).  Normally I think of the blast furnace running strong till November.  

Don’t agree. High 80s with dew points in the 60s suck. Does it sick as much as 100 with the same set up? No. But it still feels like ass.

 

It’s like Miami but less covid and cocaine.

[Guest Lobo]

You don’t hear a lot about Miami cocaine super-spreader events.  I mean, as far as covid...not AIDS. 
 

Texas Autumn.  I get it.  Little too hot for comfort.  We’ll endure.  Could just really use some rain.   Need to shut my sprinkler system off for the season but can’t until probably Halloween.  That ain’t right.  Fishing sucked yesterday too.  

[Somnio 751]

8 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

It's definitely been warmer than normal, but like you said not too bad all in all.

What I'm not thrilled about is the lack of rain.  October in Austin averages nearly 4" of rain, the third highest monthly total of the year. 

I can't seem to recall much if any so far this month.

[Gardner Barnes 1,562]

You don’t hear a lot about Miami cocaine super-spreader events.  I mean, as far as covid...not AIDS. 

 

Texas Autumn.  I get it.  Little too hot for comfort.  We’ll endure.  Could just really use some rain.   Need to shut my sprinkler system off for the season but can’t until probably Halloween.  That ain’t right.  Fishing sucked yesterday too.  

Dude. It’s 93 right now. On 10/18. It’s basically been in the 90s or above for 7 months.

[Guest Lobo]

True.  And we've had some brief reprieve.  As a fisherman, we had some spots of good angling.  Mainly, just asking PhDhorn because my grass is charred again.  

 

[texhorn 351]

Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

Narrator: it didn’t make it to Georgetown.

And yes, need some damn rain. Last measured rain on my weather station was 9/23.

[Hate 20,108]

For all of you whining about the weather.

[Welch 635]

29 minutes ago, Hate said:

For all of you whining about the weather.

[Guest Lobo]

that's normal when northern Alaska is the same color as Florida, right?  

[Gucci_Suit 2,644]

6 minutes ago, Lobo said:

that's normal when northern Alaska is the same color as Florida, right?  

When speaking in terms of probably above or below normal, yeah. What’s your point?

[Guest Lobo]

Forget Florida, Alaska shouldn't be that categorically that far above average over the course of the whole state.  

Nevermind.  the planet is fine.   Massive Tsunami also happening there.  Totally normal for October.  Things are tremendous.  Things are fantastic.  Things are huge.  

Edited October 20, 2020 by Lobo

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

16 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Forget Florida, Alaska shouldn't be that categorically that far above average over the course of the whole state.  

Nevermind.  the planet is fine.  

Dude- read the map again- it doesn’t say what you think it says. That’s the probability that the weather will be warmer than usual for the next 6-10 days- that’s not saying Alaska will be the same temperature as Florida. 

Edited October 20, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Guest Lobo]

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

[ztejas 43,454]

14 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

I think you're looking into that one 6-10 day graph too much. 

But, maybe we could discuss why it's been 90 fucking degrees every other day in October.

[gsoda3 3,262]

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  
That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

You messed up. We all have moments. Own it.

[Chet Steadman 940]

Jim Spencer mentioned a few weeks ago when he first started in Austin we averaged 30 days year at at 100° or greater.  

The average this past decade has been more than double that number.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

7 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

Jim Spencer mentioned a few weeks ago when he first started in Austin we averaged 30 days year at at 100° or greater.  

The average this past decade has been more than double that number.  

Yeah but that’s sort of worthless with all the new concrete and the heat island effects. Well, not worthless as we feel it, but not as indicative of planet on fire as just us changing our surroundings. 

[Gardner Barnes 1,562]

Jim Spencer mentioned a few weeks ago when he first started in Austin we averaged 30 days year at at 100° or greater.  
The average this past decade has been more than double that number.  

Yeah. It was posted up thread that 100 is just a number. And I guess that’s true. But imho it is markedly more warm in centex than it was even 10 years ago. I don’t believe we got below freezing once last winter,

The fucking weather here is not for me but we are stuck here till my youngest graduates HS in 2025.

[Wulaw Horn 19,070]

47 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

No- the more red the part of the map the higher probability it will be a one normal- not the intensity of above normal. The map is goofy and doesn’t tell us what normal maps tell us with that kind of coloration. It’s why I did a double check bc I said to myself- self- how the hell is it as hot in Alaska as Florida when all points in between are cold. 
Hint- it’s not. 

[Trey3216 15,346]

15 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Weird day today.  Strong front is pooping out on top of us.  This means for a few hours some of us might dive into the low 70's around lunch - you'll definitely feel it.  But then the front just happens to sort of die out over us, so by later afternoon warmer again and muggy.  High today should actually hit upper 80's... if the front would push through it would have only been in mid-70's.  The front might not even make it far enough for south ATX to feel it much - it's possible it'll be 71 in Georgetown and still 82 in Buda.

Anyway, another front will plow through Friday, temps will go into low 70's, then up again to near 90° by Sunday.  We're in the rollercoaster season of fronts dipping temps then moderating warmer again - until the next front.  All in all though not bad at all.

Perfect weather for people trying to recover from Rona.   Fucking perfect.   

[Trey3216 15,346]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yes, but it will be markedly above its usual average for this time of year.  Right?  Not the same temp, but it is experiencing a wide variance from normal temps for October, right?  

That's not good.  Alaska should not be experiencing a variance like that.  that's not good for the rest of the continent.  

Do you understand how chaotic systems work?  Perhaps notice the landmass that’s 4x the size of Alaska that’s below normal for the next 6-10 days.  Ebbs and flows man, ebbs and flows.  

[ztejas 43,454]

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

the higher probability it will be a one normal- not the intensity of above normal.

I'm aware that he's reading the graph incorrectly but I would guess that the probability of the temperature being above normal and the expected temperature above normal are pretty perfectly correlated.

[phdhorn 6,224]

Proally gonna freeze up hill country next week, Austin area almost but nah.  Still in 30's.   But that's early for us (even high 30's).

https://www.kxan.com/weather/weather-blog/first-warning-first-freeze-possible-next-week/

[ztejas 43,454]

Starting with October 9th this year, here is the delta for the observed high vs the record high (included forecast up to the 25th)

9th -8

10th -3

11th +1

12th -11

13th -8

14th -3

15th -5

16th -17

17th -16

18th -2

19th -3

20th -2

21st -2

22nd -4

23rd -6

24th -15

25th -1

 

Just a brutal fucking stretch. Only 4 days out of the 17 where it wasn't almost as hot as ever recorded for that date. Just one day where we broke the high, but EIGHT days where it was within 3 degrees of the record.

 

Has to be the warmest October on record so far or close to it I would think. 

 

 

Edited October 21, 2020 by ztejas

[Guest Lobo]

Good news is October Heat (my new bandname after 'Hot Property' dissolved) will kill off the Coronavirus.  

[Gardner Barnes 1,562]

Starting with October 9th this year, here is the delta for the observed high vs the record high (included forecast up to the 25th)
9th -8
10th -3
11th +1
12th -11
13th -8
14th -3
15th -5
16th -17
17th -16
18th -2
19th -3
20th -2
21st -2
22nd -4
23rd -6
24th -15
25th -1
 
Just a brutal fucking stretch. Only 4 days out of the 17 where it wasn't almost as hot as ever recorded for that date. Just one day where we broke the high, but EIGHT days where it was within 3 degrees of the record.
 
Has to be the warmest October on record so far or close to it I would think. 
 
 

Probably the driest also.

[Blotto 23,523]

Fuck. Yeah.

Been stuck inside all day, so I have no idea when this happened, but I'll take it. Even some rain chances on the horizon. 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Blotto

[MissingInAction 25,087]

Tried to put pants on, but I've lost so much weight since the rona, they just fall off my body. 

My belts do nothing. 

[Neonmoon 38,129]

I broke out the sweat pants for the first time. Best day of the year 

[Zepol87 9,188]

Going to the liquor store in pajama pants was perfect today. 

[MissingInAction 25,087]

Just put an Amazon order in for pj pants.

[XYZ 2,154]

13 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Tried to put pants on, but I've lost so much weight since the rona, they just fall off my body. 

My belts do nothing. 

Why did you lose weight during the ‘rona?

[phdhorn 6,224]

This you?

[Brisketexan 105,151]

This you?

Too manly.

[Brisketexan 105,151]

This you?

Too manly.

[UT_OB1 2,223]

Mid 60s and got a fire going in the backyard and hot chocolate for the kids. Wife from NY rolled her eyes so hard she may need to see a doctor. 

[Trey3216 15,346]

11 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Too manly.

But hey, he can sign up for insurance 

[atomheartbevo 89,675]

13 hours ago, XYZ said:

Why did you lose weight during the ‘rona?

Chlamydia is a helluva disease, but you can lose weight fast.

[atomheartbevo 89,675]

13 hours ago, XYZ said:

Why did you lose weight during the ‘rona?

Chlamydia is a helluva disease, but you can lose weight fast.

[phdhorn 6,224]

(cross post in winter thread)

So this next front, after a few days of coin flipping and 8-ball consulting, looks indeed like it's gonna hold its weight.  Temps now are certainly looking like mid-50s for most.  Overruning by rain (very light, don't get your hopes up) for 2-3 days, this is gonna feel like a true November few days.  Rain will be light and spotty, not much over 1/2" for most of us for 2 days.  Monday will start mildly enough, maybe even getting to 80° (which ain't bad anyway) before the front moves in late afternoon.

Due to the cloud cover, the nights aren't going to get near freezing around us (they might in the western Hill Country) but it's gonna be chilly and fireplace type weather, most of us in mid or low 40's.  Clearing after Wed. into 2-3 really nice, sunny days with temps in the high 60's-mid 70's.

This is fall, beyotches.

[MissingInAction 25,087]

On 10/24/2020 at 9:42 AM, XYZ said:

Why did you lose weight during the ‘rona?

No longer eating at the office cafe,  or any restaurants. Walking/running dog 5 miles a day. 

[Bash Riprock 1,695]

Winter is coming in Lubbock.