Texas basketball 2020-21: Not even Shaka can fuck this up...right?

[Machinator 32099]

Lunardi is a middle-of-the-road bracketologist, keep that in mind. Watch Bracketmatrix closely the next two days to see what the consensus is.

Also, don't blow the TCU game.

[Catdaddyhorn 3444]

1 hour ago, Machinator said:

Lunardi is a middle-of-the-road bracketologist, keep that in mind. Watch Bracketmatrix closely the next two days to see what the consensus is.

Also, don't blow the TCU game.

http://bracketmatrix.com/

As of March 4th we're the 14th seeded team making us the 2nd highest 4 seed.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Catdaddyhorn

[Catdaddyhorn 3444]

Consensus 14th seeded team that is.

[Steamboat1874 4058]

One of the best things that has happened is playing all of these games in a short period of time. It took us a while to get going after our Covid deal and other teams like Baylor have not got their legs back. Just what we needed.

[Machinator 32099]

 

[jeevsie 3734]

Umm...He's Joey Brackets.  ESPN told me.

[HookEm 2467]

So using those probabilities you get:

• 3-Seed:  22.9%
• 4-Seed:  62.9%
• 5-Seed:  12.1%
• 6-Seed:  2.1%

[Js1 85314]

26 minutes ago, HookEm said:

So using those probabilities you get:

• 3-Seed:  22.9%
• 4-Seed:  62.9%
• 5-Seed:  12.1%
• 6-Seed:  2.1%

Yes.  As long as we beat TCU, we are at least the 4 seed.  We need a pretty big upset (OSU vs. WV) to sneak into the 3 seed.   We don't hold the tiebreaker over KU due to winning % since we lost a game permanently.  We hold the tiebreaker over WV if we are both 11-6 due to our 2-0 record versus KU.   

[Bitterwhiteguy 153]

It's probably the risk-averse side of me speaking, but I'd kinda rather Texas get the 3/4 in the conference tourney and get bounced early so they can go bubble up than making a run in the conference tourney and put their March Madness bid in jeopardy by being around other teams and catching a positive test. Texas is probably a low-3/high-4 seed regardless of their conference tourney outcome (barring making the finals or winning) and a single positive test by a coach or player in the week before the NCAA tourney invokes a ton of contact tracing & potential exclusions. If Texas was on the bubble I would feel differently, but they're safely in and the bigger prize is on the horizon.

Edited March 5, 2021 by Bitterwhiteguy

[HookEm 2467]

Hmmm interesting take.

[LonghornSean 3994]

3 seed, 4 seed, 5 seed. Don't really make a shit.

In the NCAA tournament, apart from games involving 1 and 2 seeds, practically all the rest of the games are essentially coin flips. Given that, I'm not hugely confident in our chances to get to the S16, but we're certainly capable of it and the right matchups could work in our favor. Getting to the 3 line does improve those odds though.

Looking forward to Selection Sunday.

 

[Js1 85314]

I laugh when people think those first/second round games are auto upsets for us.  This team hasn't had any bad losses this yea - the road game @ OSU in 2OT looked bad in the moment, but they are a 4/5 seed and ranked in the top 20 and have the #1 pick in the draft on their roster.  It wasn't a bad loss, in hindsight, because they've gotten hot as they've gelled (young team). 

We know bad losses and red flags - This is not the Shaka teams where there were all these warning signs when we lost games to UConn, TCU, Northwestern, Colorado, UT Arlington, Kent State, Georgia and Radford. 

Outside of #1 Baylor, which is expected bc they are elite, we have 6 losses to #6, #10, #16, #17 and #18 (twice) by a combined 28 points.   We wouldn't face any team ranked nearly that high until the Sweet 16. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I laugh when people think those first/second round games are auto upsets for us.  This team hasn't had any bad losses this yea - the road game @ OSU in 2OT looked bad in the moment, but they are a 4/5 seed and ranked in the top 20 and have the #1 pick in the draft on their roster.  It wasn't a bad loss, in hindsight, because they've gotten hot as they've gelled (young team). 

We know bad losses and red flags - This is not the Shaka teams where there were all these warning signs when we lost games to UConn, TCU, Northwestern, Colorado, UT Arlington, Kent State, Georgia and Radford. 

Outside of #1 Baylor, which is expected bc they are elite, we have 6 losses to #6, #10, #16, #17 and #18 (twice) by a combined 28 points.   We wouldn't face any team ranked nearly that high until the Sweet 16. 

it's not about the rankings, it's about "are we facing a team that can beat us?", and even in round one the answer may be yes. i always think back to 2011, when Texas finished the year ranked #5 in KenPom (and that's post-tourney), yet we got a 4 seed (which we may very well get this year). our first round matchup was an always-tough Oakland (MI) team who gave us a lot of trouble, and our second round game was that Arizona team with Derrick Williams, a game we obviously didn't survive. that 2011 team was way better than this current team, and yet they played two very close games and were bounced prior to the S16. 

[Slacks 6819]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

I laugh when people think those first/second round games are auto upsets for us.  This team hasn't had any bad losses this yea - the road game @ OSU in 2OT looked bad in the moment, but they are a 4/5 seed and ranked in the top 20 and have the #1 pick in the draft on their roster.  It wasn't a bad loss, in hindsight, because they've gotten hot as they've gelled (young team). 

We know bad losses and red flags - This is not the Shaka teams where there were all these warning signs when we lost games to UConn, TCU, Northwestern, Colorado, UT Arlington, Kent State, Georgia and Radford. 

Outside of #1 Baylor, which is expected bc they are elite, we have 6 losses to #6, #10, #16, #17 and #18 (twice) by a combined 28 points.   We wouldn't face any team ranked nearly that high until the Sweet 16. 

you didn't blame shaka enough... false.

[HookEm 2467]

I don't think I will be confident facing ANY team in the tournament with this group.  If a team can make the tourney, they can beat us.  That said, I don't think there is a team in the tournament who will be very happy to face us either, all the way up to Gonzaga.

And 2011 is an interesting comparison to this year's squad.  Pretty similar record actually.  And the losses were all very close for the most part.  Better highs, but also worse losses.  If we pick up a couple of wins in the Big-12 tourney, I think I like this year's resume better. 

2011 record:  2 top-10, 8 top-50...  but 3 ugly losses.

• Top-50 wins:  #2 at KU, #7 UNC, #20 ILI, #30 at MSU, #32 ATM, #32 ATM, #32 ATM, #34 MU
• Losses: #2 KU, #5 UConn, #6 Pitt, #21 KSU, #52 at CU, #54 USC, #65 at NU  (and #17 AU)

2021 record:  0 top-10, 7 top-50... no ugly losses.

• Top-50 wins: #12 KU, #12 at KU, #14 at WVU, #27 OSU, #31 OU, #34 UNC, #36 IU
• Losses: #2 Baylor, #10 Nova, #14 WVU, #16 Tech, #15 at Tech, #27 OSU, #31 OU

 

[Machinator 32099]

For anyone interested, the NCAA keeps the official team sheets here: https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankings/season_divisions/17420/nitty_gritties

Here's ours, as of today: https://stats.ncaa.org/teams/505507

[shadow_operative 15932]

33 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I don't think I will be confident facing ANY team in the tournament with this group.  If a team can make the tourney, they can beat us.  That said, I don't think there is a team in the tournament who will be very happy to face us either, all the way up to Gonzaga.

And 2011 is an interesting comparison to this year's squad.  Pretty similar record actually.  And the losses were all very close for the most part.  Better highs, but also worse losses.  If we pick up a couple of wins in the Big-12 tourney, I think I like this year's resume better. 

2011 record:  2 top-10, 8 top-50...  but 3 ugly losses.

• Top-50 wins:  #2 at KU, #7 UNC, #20 ILI, #30 at MSU, #32 ATM, #32 ATM, #32 ATM, #34 MU
• Losses: #2 KU, #5 UConn, #6 Pitt, #21 KSU, #52 at CU, #54 USC, #65 at NU  (and #17 AU)

2021 record:  0 top-10, 7 top-50... no ugly losses.

• Top-50 wins: #12 KU, #12 at KU, #14 at WVU, #27 OSU, #31 OU, #34 UNC, #36 IU
• Losses: #2 Baylor, #10 Nova, #14 WVU, #16 Tech, #15 at Tech, #27 OSU, #31 OU

 

fwiw, 2011 was definitely more balanced and reliable than this team. reliable meaning you pretty much knew what you were going to get from each player on a game by game basis. not so up-and-down like this team. and the defense was actually much better than this year's team. plus they went 28-8 (should have been 29-7 with a S16 matchup against Duke to go for a 30-win season) while this team is currently 16-7:

 

 

either way, you really can't count on any wins in the tourney if you aren't one of the handful of best teams in the country. 

Edited March 5, 2021 by shadow_operative

[dcar00 14181]

If we face a team that doesnt really have an answer for sims and our ability to get him dunks, we are in  good shape.

If they have someone that can neutralize sims then we are at the mercy of potentially throwing out one of our patented 5 for 30 shaka specials where we can lose to anyone. 

The 13 seed should be a 15 pt win

[Ignatius 4017]

4 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

it's not about the rankings, it's about "are we facing a team that can beat us?", and even in round one the answer may be yes. i always think back to 2011, when Texas finished the year ranked #5 in KenPom (and that's post-tourney), yet we got a 4 seed (which we may very well get this year). our first round matchup was an always-tough Oakland (MI) team who gave us a lot of trouble, and our second round game was that Arizona team with Derrick Williams, a game we obviously didn't survive. that 2011 team was way better than this current team, and yet they played two very close games and were bounced prior to the S16. 

Weren’t we ahead by 14-15 at some point against Oakland? Felt like a game where we eased up but it’s been awhile. That fucking 5-second call against Arizona still kills me. 2011 was the last year Texas hoops was still fun...

[Catdaddyhorn 3444]

1 hour ago, shadow_operative said:

fwiw, 2011 was definitely more balanced and reliable than this team. reliable meaning you pretty much knew what you were going to get from each player on a game by game basis. not so up-and-down like this team. and the defense was actually much better than this year's team. plus they went 28-8 (should have been 29-7 with a S16 matchup against Duke to go for a 30-win season) while this team is currently 16-7:

 

 

either way, you really can't count on any wins in the tourney if you aren't one of the handful of best teams in the country. 

2010-2011 is one of my favorite Texas teams. They were like old school Bama before the spread changed Saban's approach. They would literally slow cook teams into oblivion. There was nothing really exciting or outrageously intimidating about that group, but after a 40 minute game you'd look up and find yourself down by 20. They went on a 17 or 18 game streak where they went 17-1 with 15 or 16 wins by double digits, including that epic double digit win over KU at the Phog in front of a raucous crowd that turned silent with about 5 minute left.  They're the only team that I really thought we were going to win the national championship with. That end of season collapse absolutely crushed me. 

[Slacks 6819]

Man... This thread reads like people don't want to win.

You know I'll do it....

[ztejas 43419]

1 hour ago, Ignatius said:

Weren’t we ahead by 14-15 at some point against Oakland? Felt like a game where we eased up but it’s been awhile. That fucking 5-second call against Arizona still kills me. 2011 was the last year Texas hoops was still fun...

That was a brutal loss. It was an honorable mention for me on the "worst losses ever" thread that someone started recently. 

[shadow_operative 15932]

the fact that you can actually see the official's arm counting only to four before blowing his whistle just makes it that much more unforgivable and impossible to get over. there's zero question towards the fact that the ref did not count to five before making a season-changing (and perhaps program changing) decision. add to that that Zona crushed Duke in the next round, and then played UCONN in the E8- the same UCONN who miraculously beat us 82-81 in OT in Austin- and that could have ended up being an all-time run to the Final Four for our program. the single most impactful whistle of my lifetime.

[Js1 85314]

4 minutes ago, shadow_operative said:

the fact that you can actually see the official's arm counting only to four before blowing his whistle just makes it that much more unforgivable and impossible to get over. there's zero question towards the fact that the ref did not count to five before making a season-changing (and perhaps program changing) decision. add to that that Zona crushed Duke in the next round, and then played UCONN in the E8- the same UCONN who miraculously beat us 82-81 in OT in Austin- and that could have ended up being an all-time run to the Final Four for our program. the single most impactful whistle of my lifetime.

That fucking ref. I’ve never been so angry watching a game. IT WAS FOUR SECONDS

[HookEm 2467]

Was that the game that produced the gif of Barnes licking his lips?

Such a terrible BS loss. I was mad about that for about 6 months.

[ztejas 43419]

Especially bullshit considering it's rarely called at 5 seconds anyway. I feel like refs usually give a good half second of grace before they actually blow the whistle after 5.

[Revolution512 1487]

Arizona was abusing us and the Ricktator from what I remember. Weren’t we down big at the half and Rick pulled his just give it to J’Covan to save us strategy? It was a crushing loss, no doubt. Between the ref and the NCAA committee, we were fucked all the way around.

[Revolution512 1487]

15 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

fwiw, 2011 was definitely more balanced and reliable than this team. reliable meaning you pretty much knew what you were going to get from each player on a game by game basis. not so up-and-down like this team. and the defense was actually much better than this year's team. plus they went 28-8 (should have been 29-7 with a S16 matchup against Duke to go for a 30-win season) while this team is currently 16-7:

 

 

either way, you really can't count on any wins in the tourney if you aren't one of the handful of best teams in the country. 

The 2011 team wasn’t very deep, we got consistent play because we depended on the same group night in and night out to carry the load. Our bench was Wangmene, Hill, Brown and Lucas essentially. Our starting 5 with Brown off the bench was a fantastic group though.

[orangecat92 306]

So we are basically finishing one game ahead of 7th place, assuming a victory over TCU?  But we could easily say we would have swept ou if it weren’t for COVID.  So, Shaka can claim we were a top 4 team in conference.  I just thought of another way for Shaka to ensure there is at least a discussion about a possible extension, win at least 2 games in conference tourney by 10 points or more, and then win one NCAA game.  Win 2 ncaa games and pressure builds...win 3 ncaa games and there will be serious heat.  Win 4 ncaa games and there is either an extension or my crystal ball forecasts Shaka goes somewhere else.  

Whatever happens, this is gonna be good.

[Js1 85314]

Cowboys just gave us the 3 seed with their win at WV if we win tomorrow 

[Js1 85314]

2 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

So we are basically finishing one game ahead of 7th place, assuming a victory over TCU? 

The top of the Big 12 is very very good. 

The bottom of the conference is very bad. 

Teams 3-6 are pretty equal and very good (but not very very good). All things considering, we can win and finish 3rd after all the tiebreakers 

[justhookit 4191]

Dude, stop with the Shaka extension talk. It’s not happening in any scenario.

[LTtxfan 49181]

On 3/5/2021 at 11:42 AM, Js1 said:

I laugh when people think those first/second round games are auto upsets for us.  This team hasn't had any bad losses this yea - the road game @ OSU in 2OT looked bad in the moment, but they are a 4/5 seed and ranked in the top 20 and have the #1 pick in the draft on their roster.  It wasn't a bad loss, in hindsight, because they've gotten hot as they've gelled (young team). 

We know bad losses and red flags - This is not the Shaka teams where there were all these warning signs when we lost games to UConn, TCU, Northwestern, Colorado, UT Arlington, Kent State, Georgia and Radford. 

Outside of #1 Baylor, which is expected bc they are elite, we have 6 losses to #6, #10, #16, #17 and #18 (twice) by a combined 28 points.   We wouldn't face any team ranked nearly that high until the Sweet 16. 

I laugh at you laughing... 😂😂😂

Shaka can easily cause the Horns to lose their first round NCAA Tourney game -- won't shock me.  

[maninblack 7974]

4 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

I laugh at you laughing... 😂😂😂

Shaka can easily cause the Horns to lose their first round NCAA Tourney game -- won't shock me.  

I'm betting on it

[Js1 85314]

Texas jumped a seed line overnight to a 3. Likely due to FSU falling to a 5 after losing to sub-500 ND

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas jumped a seed line overnight to a 3. Likely due to FSU falling to a 5 after losing to sub-500 ND

Ohio State is trying to help out too

[Js1 85314]

Just now, SwanderedTalent said:

Ohio State is trying to help out too

They are still on the 2 line.  Whatever we just gotta win today and we should be a lock for 3 or 4. 

[Burt Macklin 19022]

21 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

So we are basically finishing one game ahead of 7th place, assuming a victory over TCU?  But we could easily say we would have swept ou if it weren’t for COVID.  So, Shaka can claim we were a top 4 team in conference.  I just thought of another way for Shaka to ensure there is at least a discussion about a possible extension, win at least 2 games in conference tourney by 10 points or more, and then win one NCAA game.  Win 2 ncaa games and pressure builds...win 3 ncaa games and there will be serious heat.  Win 4 ncaa games and there is either an extension or my crystal ball forecasts Shaka goes somewhere else.  

Whatever happens, this is gonna be good.

Shaka is not getting an extension. Stop trying to make it happen with your nonsensical hypotheticals. 

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They are still on the 2 line.  

they need to win one in the B1G tournament to hold that, IMO-- I know the committee supposedly no longer takes "momentum" into account but I don't see how you can ignore a five-game losing streak if the fifth is to one of Minnesota or Northwestern

[Js1 85314]

3 seed in the conference tournament

likely 3 seed in the NCAA

All loses to top 20 teams and no bad losses 

Not a bad regular season. Let’s win some tournament games 

[Napoleon 8675]

Just now, Js1 said:

3 seed in the conference tournament...likely 3 seed in the NCAA

All loses to top 20 teams and no bad losses 

Not a bad regular season. Let’s win some tournament games 

All losses where the team was leading by a large margin and then shit the bed in the final 5+ minutes down through OT are “BAD LOSSES”.

We had plenty in the 2nd half of the season. 

[Braff Zacklin 13561]

Two of those losses should have an asterisk on account of idiotic league/COVID/reffing. Aside from those, Texas sweeps OU and WVU and finishes as the league's No. 2 seed.

Outside of those games, the only thing that really irks me about the regular season is being swept by Tech, particularly the first game. The 'Horns stepped on their dicks and found a way to lose.

I feel Beard would've given Baylor a run for the title with Shaka's roster.

[perfectchaos007 6635]

Oh cool we get a chance to lose to Chris Beard 3 times in one season

[Guest Lobo]

They shuffled the usual schedule tip times this year, so when they say 8:30p, they mean 8:30p because the game before it will have been over for almost an hour.

THU:  Texas v. Texas Tech-8:30p (CST) 

FRI:  Texas v. Kansas/Oklahoma-8:30p (CST)

SAT:  if we advance, title game-5:00p (CST) 

[shadow_operative 15932]

the one thing that's ultimately killing my hopes about this team making a run to the S16 or beyond is the defense. through early January we not only had one of the elite defenses in the country, but according to AdjD we had one of the elite defenses ever tracked by KenPom. our defense through the first dozen or so games was so elite that i had zero doubts about Texas going to the Sweet 16. "Pencil it in", I said. but the truth is that our defense has fallen off a cliff compared to where it once was, and i honestly cannot say why that is, or what we can do to fix it.

early in the season we held Indiana to a ridiculous 23.9% shooting and 20% from three; UNC shot 41% from the field and 11% from deep (our three point defense was particularly spectacular early on); when we beat KU they shot 30.8% from the field and and 13% (3-23) from deep. but those performances are now a thing of the past, and now we must rely on having a good offensive night to beat any legit teams. i really don't know what happened, or why our defensive numbers and metrics have fallen so far in the last two months, but it's a large enough sample size for me to worry about this team actually making a run. TCU does not have a good offense (no.119 in AdjO and pretty much all stats in the red on Kenpom) and they still shot over 47% tonight against us. they hung with us for most of the game, and we didn't pull away until late. we should be holding teams like TCU to sub-40% shooting, but that hasn't been the case for some time now. we need to hope that the teams we draw in the tourney are not strong offensively, otherwise we will be in for a fight, even potentially in round one. 

Edited March 8, 2021 by shadow_operative

[Js1 85314]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

All losses where the team was leading by a large margin and then shit the bed in the final 5+ minutes down through OT are “BAD LOSSES”.

We had plenty in the 2nd half of the season. 

I meant resume bad losses. But I agree  with your point. 

[Machinator 32099]

 

[HookEm 2467]

I’m not sure too many people on this board had us winning 6 of our last 8 after losing 3 in a row back in early February. It felt like a collapse was about to happen (as we have all been too accustomed to).

But these guys have closed strong. They have won some good, tough close games. KU and OU in particular, but NO Big12 game is a cake walk.

Looking forward to seeing what happens. I don’t mind drawing Tech. I think the team will be extra motivated to avoid the sweep. We are more talented than them. They have better coaching.

[orangecat92 306]

As someone who has been pessimistic all of this calendar year, which is kind of when I started paying attention, this thing could easily go to the sweet sixteen and beyond.  The pure talent is taking over.  If G. Brown focuses and makes those dunks, chances are we beat TCU by 20, which is more than we won by last time. 

The talent is overtaking the coaching.  The only thing in our way to a conf. tournament win is Beard.  If somehow Tech has an off night and we beat Tech, I am super confident we win the conf. tournament, because Baylor will have checked out by then.  Their seed will be solid.  This team goes 3-0 in conference tourney, and then 2-0 and then it comes down to luck for the remainder of the big boy tournament.   Wouldn't surprise me a bit to see a 6-1 postseason run.  It is probably more likely we lose to Tech, win 2 and then lose, but picture this:  We win the conference tourney, we're most likely a 2 seed.  What round do we face a really good team?  I say game number 3.  

[shadow_operative 15932]

we have no business losing to Tech three times in one season. if these guys can't get up and stay laser focused for the duration of this game (we will win comfortably by double digits if we do this), then they can't get up for anything. we should honestly kick the shit out of Tech, and Ramey should be assigned to follow McClung around for 40 minutes harassing him to the tune of a 4-14, 5 TO type of day. if our guys show up ready for a full 40 minutes then we will kick Tech's ass.