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Texas basketball 2020-21: Not even Shaka can fuck this up...right?

Goo Punch

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46057

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42 minutes ago, orangecat92 said:

If somehow Tech has an off night and we beat Tech, I am super confident we win the conf. tournament, because Baylor will have checked out by then. 

LMAO.  There is zero chance we beat Baylor.  They could roll out their 6-10 and we'd still lose.

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Steamboat1874
Steamboat1874

He is also the best college play by play guy in the country so fuck off.

UTexasFight
UTexasFight

If Craig Way outlives me, I want him narrating the opening to my memorial service: “The deceased, laying from left to right in your mind’s eye, wearing his home jersey today: All black coat, with a

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Tailgate

Looks like we have an answer to the thread title.

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LTtxfan

LTtxfan 49329

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, orangecat92 said:

The talent is overtaking the coaching.  The only thing in our way to a conf. tournament win is Beard.  If somehow Tech has an off night and we beat Tech, I am super confident we win the conf. tournament, because Baylor will have checked out by then.  Their seed will be solid.  This team goes 3-0 in conference tourney, and then 2-0 and then it comes down to luck for the remainder of the big boy tournament.   Wouldn't surprise me a bit to see a 6-1 postseason run.  It is probably more likely we lose to Tech, win 2 and then lose, but picture this:  We win the conference tourney, we're most likely a 2 seed.  What round do we face a really good team?  I say game number 3.  

 

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 46057

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If you had offered me the 3 seed in the Big XII tournament and a 3/4 seed in the NCAA before the season started, I'd have taken it.  That's how beaten down this fan base is.  A team with a ton of experience, great athleticism, length and drive, and we're happy to maybe have a shot at a Sweet 16.

That's why Shaka needs to go.  This absolutely feels like his peak.  If the 'horns outperform in the NCAAs, then sure, he needs to get another year, but we all know what that will look like.

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Bitterwhiteguy

Bitterwhiteguy 153

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5 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

If we lose to Tech in B12 Tourney, wonder if Horns end up a  5 seed ??

Probably not -- guessing we're a 4

The number of Big 12 teams that will be in the running for top 4 seeds means it's possible one or more team gets bumped down a line to comply with the NCAA Tournament's rule that conference opponents who have played each other 2+ times don't see each other before the Sweet 16. Given that they start building the bracket from the top down, Baylor & WVU are unlikely to deal with this but the glut of Big 12 teams in 3-5 range (Kansas, OSU, Texas, maybe Tech or OU) it's possible one or more gets dropped a line to accomodate. The rule isn't always followed, but it's something they try to do as they can. With the number of Big 10 & Big 12 teams in the tourney, somebody's likely to get knocked down a line for reasons other than their resume.

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Machinator

Machinator 32099

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10 minutes ago, PantsTent said:

Why should WVU be seeded higher than Texas or Kansas at this point?  

WVU has a better record against Q1/Q2 competition than Texas or Kansas. Their SOS is also a little better than ours.

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maninblack

maninblack 7974

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13 hours ago, shadow_operative said:

the one thing that's ultimately killing my hopes about this team making a run to the S16 or beyond is the defense. through early January we not only had one of the elite defenses in the country, but according to AdjD we had one of the elite defenses ever tracked by KenPom. our defense through the first dozen or so games was so elite that i had zero doubts about Texas going to the Sweet 16. "Pencil it in", I said. but the truth is that our defense has fallen off a cliff compared to where it once was, and i honestly cannot say why that is, or what we can do to fix it.

early in the season we held Indiana to a ridiculous 23.9% shooting and 20% from three; UNC shot 41% from the field and 11% from deep (our three point defense was particularly spectacular early on); when we beat KU they shot 30.8% from the field and and 13% (3-23) from deep. but those performances are now a thing of the past, and now we must rely on having a good offensive night to beat any legit teams. i really don't know what happened, or why our defensive numbers and metrics have fallen so far in the last two months, but it's a large enough sample size for me to worry about this team actually making a run. TCU does not have a good offense (no.119 in AdjO and pretty much all stats in the red on Kenpom) and they still shot over 47% tonight against us. they hung with us for most of the game, and we didn't pull away until late. we should be holding teams like TCU to sub-40% shooting, but that hasn't been the case for some time now. we need to hope that the teams we draw in the tourney are not strong offensively, otherwise we will be in for a fight, even potentially in round one. 

Does KenPom allow you to adjust date ranges?

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Js1

Js1 85494

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If anyone is following bracketology (not that it should be taken as gospel) -

We'd have 14 Georgia St. in the first round and the winner of 11 VCU/6 Tennessee in the second round.  That second round game just seems like Lunardi looking for some headlines - Texas faces either Smart's old program or Texas' former head coach.   I doubt it'll happen. 

Assuming we won those 2 games, the Sweet 16 pod is Ohio State/Wisconsin/UCLA/Southern Utah.   And that Ohio State team is backsliding hard.  If I had to pick a 2 seed to end up in the Sweet 16 with, it is Ohio State.  Assuming they stay a 2.  And we stay a 3.  

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14760

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Given that his coaching acumen seems to be much higher regarded outside of the fanbase, we should root for a long tournament run. It would likely mean he's a hot commodity again and maybe another team comes calling and takes him off our hands.

Damn sure wish we had gotten Musselman 2 years ago.

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ztejas

ztejas 43526

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The problem with taking this team to the SS is that there's a chance they lose their first game. If I thought there was no way that they lose to a 13 seed then sure, I'd like their chances at the 2nd weekend, but I've seen too many terrible, 9 minute+ stretches of basketball from Texas this year to think that.

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HookEm

HookEm 2467

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Not sure about that.  It depends on what others do in front of us. 

Both West Virginia and Kansas are projected to be 3 seeds.  If West Virginia loses to Oklahoma State and we beat Texas Tech, that alone may be enough for us to swap places.  We have similar records in all classes, would be higher ranked in the Big-12 and would have gone farther in the Big-12 Tourney.

If OU beats ISU and then Kansas, they will almost certainly climb into the top-30 NET, which will double help us by knocking down Kansas and erasing our lone Q2 loss.  Kansas is currently only two spots ahead of us at #11 and we swept them this year. 

I’m curious how high we could climb if we won the Big 12 Tourney.  It would give us 3 more Q1 wins, finishing 9-6 and 20-7 overall with some really big additional wins over Tech, likely Kansas and likely Baylor.  We would definitely pass Kansas and West Virginia in this scenario.  I would like our resume better than Ohio State and Iowa assuming neither wins the Big-10 tourney.   And would they really put a Houston team who only 2 Q1 wins and a Q3 loss ahead of us at that point?  I would think we would be a 2-seed.

If we make the title game, we will definitely be a 3-seed and POSSIBLY even sneak in as the worst 2-seed if OU climbs into Q1.  

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MotownHorn

MotownHorn 1776

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I doubt it. I’ve found that most people here are like you. All talk. So many of you talk shit about Shaka and the Horns. None of you will put your money where you keyboard is.

I’m happy to bet on Tennessee shitting the bed too, as I offered you 2 years ago and you ducked with a lame excuse. That way you can bet on your boy Rick being the great coach you think he is. 
 

Eagerly awaiting your creative excuse on that one!

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Braff Zacklin

Braff Zacklin 13645

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22 hours ago, Js1 said:

Not a bad regular season. Let’s win some tournament games 

Agreed. Just disappointed because Texas hasn't been playing better than the sum of its parts since halftime of the first Tech game. A lot of that is probably due to COVID (postponements, cancellations, not being able to practice yet being required to play shorthanded, etc.). Officiating also added insult to injury in two of those games (versus OU and versus WVU), but still, the growth and discipline don't seem to be there.

The rest of the blame ... well, it's beating a dead horse but it's obvious to all that the leadership isn't there.

This team has Final Four potential. I say that with a straight face and without fear of exaggeration. But the Longhorns could also easily lose in the first round. No idea what to expect.

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12271

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6 hours ago, MotownHorn said:

Dude Shaka's fired after this terrible season. Haven't you heard?

Not sure if serious but Shaka isn’t getting fired this year no matter what happens. He could lose by 20 in the first round of the Big 12 and NCAA tournament as a 3 seed and he still keeps his job.

This of course has nothing to do with his resume or whether he deserves it or not. He should have been fired after year 3 at the latest. It’s simply because since Herman shit the bed and football pays the bills and we are having to shell out millions to correct that mistake that basketball and it’s shitty coach get’s overlooked since it never has been and never will be as important as the pigskin. 

If Herman had been a good coach,  or better yet, if the BMD had not been idiots and hired a good football coach to begin with, we wouldn’t be having this Shaka discussion because he would have been run out long ago.

Instead, since Shaka doesn’t embarrass the program off the court we keep him around because it’s not worth the money getting rid of him due to his shitty contract. So far he’s having a decent year but still hasn’t managed to meet expectations for this senior laden team. Hopefully Sark has a good year next year and this discussion becomes elementary. 

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shadow_operative

shadow_operative 15932

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47 minutes ago, MotownHorn said:

I doubt it. I’ve found that most people here are like you. All talk. So many of you talk shit about Shaka and the Horns. None of you will put your money where you keyboard is.

I’m happy to bet on Tennessee shitting the bed too, as I offered you 2 years ago and you ducked with a lame excuse. That way you can bet on your boy Rick being the great coach you think he is. 
 

Eagerly awaiting your creative excuse on that one!

you're right, most people here are like me- Texas fans who are interested in discussing basketball. then there's you- belligerent, combative, only posts to talk shit or fight with someone, adds nothing of substance to any thread. its as if you're a method actor who's playing peak Derka, 2009 style. it's pathetic and you should be embarrassed.

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ztejas

ztejas 43526

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18 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Not sure if serious but Shaka isn’t getting fired this year no matter what happens. He could lose by 20 in the first round of the Big 12 and NCAA tournament as a 3 seed and he still keeps his job.

This of course has nothing to do with his resume or whether he deserves it or not. He should have been fired after year 3 at the latest. It’s simply because since Herman shit the bed and football pays the bills and we are having to shell out millions to correct that mistake that basketball and it’s shitty coach get’s overlooked since it never has been and never will be as important as the pigskin. 

If Herman had been a good coach,  or better yet, if the BMD had not been idiots and hired a good football coach to begin with, we wouldn’t be having this Shaka discussion because he would have been run out long ago.

Instead, since Shaka doesn’t embarrass the program off the court we keep him around because it’s not worth the money getting rid of him due to his shitty contract. So far he’s having a decent year but still hasn’t managed to meet expectations for this senior laden team. Hopefully Sark has a good year next year and this discussion becomes elementary. 

I don't think Shaka's job is as safe as you think. He isn't on as thin of ice as Herman was but I wouldn't be surprised at all if he gets canned following a first round exit. That would make him an abject failure through six seasons at the helm. Like, one of the worst big 3 coaches ever at Texas.

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RockyMountainHighHorn

RockyMountainHighHorn 896

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I feel like it’s quite obvious to analyze this team. It’s a lot like going to the Winstar. You could go there and win a jackpot or you could go there, lose all your money, and catch covid. But right when you are down to your last few bucks or wife is saying it’s time to go, you win just enough money to keep you there. This team could beat anyone, well maybe all but 3, or it could lose to liberty. The sad part is no matter what the game is, the safest bet is that it is going to be close. Whether we are up by 20 or down by 20 at any point, the game will get back within 4 and then it’s either up or down from there. If there was a bet for that in Vegas, I’d bet it every game. But I do hope we get 3 seed, stay out of Baylor’s region and hit the SS. We deserve a sweet sixteen game for the excitement...been too long. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43526

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5 minutes ago, HookEm said:

I don’t even think there is a 10%+ chance we win the conference tourney, much less follow it up with an opening loss.

I'll give us 45% against Tech, 50% against Kansas (which is probably too kind - I can't imagine beating Kansas 3 times) and 20% against Baylor. That's a solid 4.5%.

But I'm with you. IF this team does that, there is no way in fuck they lose in the first round. 

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ztejas

ztejas 43526

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6 hours ago, HtownHorn said:

I really think his athletic profile fits better in the NBA. If he can be a consistent roll guy, he can find a nice niche as a backup center.

He's kind of undersized and he can't shoot worth a lick but he could stick somewhere for sure. He should get a summer league look at least. Doubt he gets drafted but you never know. 

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HtownHorn

HtownHorn 14760

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4 minutes ago, ztejas said:

He's kind of undersized and he can't shoot worth a lick but he could stick somewhere for sure. He should get a summer league look at least. Doubt he gets drafted but you never know. 

I think some team takes a 2nd round flier on him. I'm not sure why you think 6'10" 250 is undersized, especially with the athleticism to switch and guard the perimeter in some situations.

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