Texas Re-Opening Announced

[wildcat09 29420]

5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Yeah I just don’t see e.g. the Miami-Dade county ME submitting X Covid deaths, seeing the state publish .50X deaths, and keeping quiet. Even if the chief ME was in on it, no way everyone up and down the line stays quiet

I'm fairly sure that's why we learned the state was trying to do it. Like I said, they'll suck at it but they'll give it a shot. I'm not saying we can't get accurate (or as accurate as we can reasonably expect given the constraints in testing) information, I'm saying they're going to try to try to convince as many Americans as they can that things are great and, among other tactics, have tried and probably will continue to try to suppress accurate numbers.

Of course, given that plenty of Republican officials just tell blatant lies these days even when publicly available data disproves them, they might just let their offices release accurate information then tweet out in all caps how it's fake news and actually there's no new cases and covid in fact just mysteriously disappeared. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

I’ve discussed this with him on a few threads already. He won’t listen that his numbers are wrong. For whatever reason the chart on CDC he is getting it from way undercounts pneumonia deaths for previous years. This all started with a tweet based on a reddit post that seemed to show multiple states reporting 4 to 5 times the average number of pneumonia cases this year. The reality is that the true increase was anywhere from 1-25%. So yes we are definitely slightly to moderately undercounting covid deaths, but it is nowhere near what he is alleging. Since he likes referencing CDC so much, here is a pretty chart for him. I’m not sure where he thinks Texas is “hiding” covid deaths. You can look at national level or state level. This is for Texas - https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

 

We just going to pretend that there's not a huge unnatural spike  in the National chart? Or Florida and Georgia?

National:

Georgia

Florida

 

 

 

[justhookit 4191]

13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

We just going to pretend that there's not a huge unnatural spike  in the National chart? Or Florida and Georgia?

National:

Georgia

Florida

 

 

 

We were discussing Texas. Florida was covered on another thread. The increase is roughly +1300 cases or about 25% above normal. If you are interested in reading it i’ll dig up that link. In a previous reply I made on this thread I linked to the nytimes article indicating we may be undercounting covid by around 33,000 nationwide. I agree with that. 

[BradInATX 9208]

11 minutes ago, justhookit said:

We were discussing Texas. Florida was covered on another thread. The increase is roughly +1300 cases or about 25% above normal. If you are interested in reading it i’ll dig up that link. In a previous reply I made on this thread I linked to the nytimes article indicating we may be undercounting covid by around 33,000 nationwide. I agree with that. 

My bad. Mixed up two conversations.

I pulled data from that site and came up with about 28k, just for the past 10 weeks, and that would come down a little if I adjusted for population growth. So 30k is probably about right. Texas is about 500 above our historical average for the last ten weeks. So you're correct, we probably are not under-reporting by a substantial amount. 

New Jersey is really bad. NYC, which I removed to get an accurate total (so it didn't get double counted with the state) has over 800% more than its historical average. That's crazy. Formatting kinda sucks because I spent 5 minutes on it, but it's pretty interesting.

To me it looks like the states that are underreporting are most of the ones that were hardest hit (Texas, Ohio, Tennessee, and California are fairly reasonable, though). It mostly breaks along case/death volume and not along any partisan lines. It would lead one to believe that yes, cases are being underreported, and no, there doesn't seem to be any wholesale systemic gaming of the system. That's not to say an invividual state or two isn't doing it, but it's not organized across a bunch of states.

 

Looks like the vaccine is just to move to North Carolina. Asheville is pretty bad ass.

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by BradInATX

[justhookit 4191]

Exactly. You and I are seeing the data and reaching the same conclusion. And yeah last week when I started digging around I couldn’t believe what I saw in NYC and NJ. Just unreal numbers.

Edited June 1, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4191]

@Wanker Bob I see you are online and posting so I’m guessing you have nothing else to add. I know it’s difficult for you to admit that someone like me who isn’t in your political party actually agrees with you that we are undercounting covid, but it’s not to the extent that you believe, and especially not in Texas.

Reserve your anger for the twat-waffle we have running this country.

[Wanker Bob 379]

16 hours ago, justhookit said:

I’ve discussed this with him on a few threads already. He won’t listen that his numbers are wrong. For whatever reason the chart on CDC he is getting it from way undercounts pneumonia deaths for previous years. This all started with a tweet based on a reddit post that seemed to show multiple states reporting 4 to 5 times the average number of pneumonia cases this year. The reality is that the true increase was anywhere from 1-25%. So yes we are definitely slightly to moderately undercounting covid deaths, but it is nowhere near what he is alleging. Since he likes referencing CDC so much, here is a pretty chart for him. I’m not sure where he thinks Texas is “hiding” covid deaths. You can look at national level or state level. This is for Texas - https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

Sorry, was distracted by other things and frankly tired and frustrated by this argument so left it alone for a day. 

Ok, first you show a graph that is comparing pneumonia as a percentage of total deaths. That's faulty for this instance because official covid19 deaths have pushed the total deaths way higher than normal as well as the covid deaths classified as pneumonia. So the overall percentage of total deaths wouldn't rise as dramatically as the raw numbers show. You say the data I got from the CDC is faulty but you haven't shown why or given any data that refutes it. You need to bring the exact raw data for total pneumonia deaths for 2020 and the total deaths from the last 5 or so years. Find those numbers that differ from the CDC numbers I used and we'll go from there. 

And again, I'm not saying the state or localities are intentionally under-reporting covid deaths as pneumonia. I 100 percent think it's a function of the suppressing of tests especially in the first months of the pandemic. We still are in a situation where we don't have enough tests to test the living that need it and the deceased that died outside the hospital and never received tests. As far as I know no dead bodies brought to the morgue are being tested in Texas or anywhere else. That's where I believe the total covid deaths are being hidden. Without tests for positive confirmation the MEs are classifying as pneumonia because that's what the symptoms are. Therefore you have a situation where people either too poor or underinsured to go to the hospital are dying of covid and not being counted. 

Now, the CDC numbers I found I documented earlier and as of May 29th Texas was 1,777 pneumonia deaths over their average for the previous 5 total years. Those years had an annual low of approx 2700 and a high of approx 3500. Texas is at approx 5000 as of May 29. 

Now the question is what is the typical pace of pneumonia deaths in Texas in a normal year? We know in no year has Texas had anywhere near 5000 for the entire year much less by May 29, but what's the range Texas usually has by the end of May? 50 percent of total? 60? 35? That information would give us an idea of just how many deaths from covid are being misclassified as pneumonia.

For example, If you assume in a normal year Texas hits 50 percent of it's pneumonia deaths in a year by the end of May then the normal range should be about 1350 to 1750 pneumonia deaths. According to the CDC Texas is at 5000 in 2020. That would be approximately 3250 to 3650 covid19 deaths misclassified as pneumonia. Given Texas has reported about 1600 official covid deaths so far that's potentially a very large amount to be wrong by. So not 4-5 times the amount like the reddit article said but realistically 2-3 times. 

[BradInATX 9208]

6 hours ago, justhookit said:

@Wanker Bob I see you are online and posting so I’m guessing you have nothing else to add. I know it’s difficult for you to admit that someone like me who isn’t in your political party actually agrees with you that we are undercounting covid, but it’s not to the extent that you believe, and especially not in Texas.

Reserve your anger for the twat-waffle we have running this country.

I mean, the DT thread is overrun with a bunch of dipshits who think that we are drastically overcounting because of some nebulous libtard plot to get more money that has been debunked multiple times. And the evidence shows it's more likely that we're undercounting than overcounting. So I don't know that dunking on anyone is in order. Even Texas is undercounting by 17%. While it's probably unintentional, it's still a significant number. 

I do think we can probably put to bed the conspiracy talks (for both sides). It just doesn't appear that there is large-scale manipulation of the numbers. If these stats provide ammo to dunk on anyone, it's the morons who think that NYC and New York State are classifying everything as Covid to get that sweet sweet welfare libtard money. Those places appear to be the places that are most underreporting the numbers.

 

 

[mchookem 16408]

you guys talk a bunch of fancy math talk 😋😁

i just want to know...is Texas fucked with the re-opening yet? or is it...kind of ok, we're weathering fairly well?

i'm not really venturing outside our neighborhood, as i've been following the Austin zip code heat map, and 78757 hasn't had any significant increase in numbers in over a month.

[gmr548 16617]

I actually do kind of worry about this.  Look at Florida and see how they have tried to undercount numbers.

It doesn't have to be a grand conspiracy. Texas has been behind on testing since the beginning. You get a possible covid death but can't confirm - pneumonia it is. Florida seems more blatant in terms of just hiding shit. Texas seems to have just been incompetent.

[bolverk 29728]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

you guys talk a bunch of fancy math talk 😋😁

i just want to know...is Texas fucked with the re-opening yet? or is it...kind of ok, we're weathering fairly well?

i'm not really venturing outside our neighborhood, as i've been following the Austin zip code heat map, and 78757 hasn't had any significant increase in numbers in over a month.

Unfortunately, the Texas case count has increased significantly over the last week or so. No huge spike in deaths yet, although they're beginning to rise too.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

[Anastasis 23491]

42 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Unfortunately, the Texas case count has increased significantly over the last week or so. No huge spike in deaths yet, although they're beginning to rise too.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

Looks like a wobble around memorial day weekend reporting of new cases? A series of down days bottoming out on memorial day, followed by a series of up days. Fatalities will be a better data point once they mature a bit.  And by close of the week, probably the last data points that can really contribute to discussion of the impact of reopening.  The massive protests in every major urban area over the last 6 days are going to start hitting the books soon, if they are not already impacting. 

[bolverk 29728]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Looks like a wobble around memorial day weekend reporting of new cases? A series of down days bottoming out on memorial day, followed by a series of up days. Fatalities will be a better data point once they mature a bit.  And by close of the week, probably the last data points that can really contribute to discussion of the impact of reopening.  The massive protests in every major urban area over the last 6 days are going to start hitting the books soon, if they are not already impacting. 

Fair point about a Memorial weekend slump. Clearly, the more important of the two charts is the fatalities, and it's hard to say if it'll rise significantly or not. Like you said, we should know in the next week or so.

[Wanker Bob 379]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

On 6/1/2020 at 12:49 AM, Macanudo said:

I actually do kind of worry about this.  Look at Florida and see how they have tried to undercount numbers.

It doesn't have to be a grand conspiracy. Texas has been behind on testing since the beginning. You get a possible covid death but can't confirm - pneumonia it is. Florida seems more blatant in terms of just hiding shit. Texas seems to have just been incompetent.

Exactly. And the numbers provided by the CDC show that it's by a significant amount. I do believe the state leadership knows exactly what's happening and is refusing to admit or acknowledge it because it's information that contradicts their re-opening actions, but in no way do I think the individual MEs are being disingenuous. I just think they weren't provided the resources they need and without the ability to test the dead they don't feel right classifying a death as Covid even when it's pretty obvious. There's a poster on here who lost an aunt in this very scenario, and if I remember correctly she was never tested so I'd be shocked if she wasn't listed as pneumonia. If he could confirm that would be great. 

Unfortunately we won't know until months later when we get the CDC numbers on pneumonia deaths post May 29 just how deadly this full reopen truly was. A large percentage of our population is underinsured with sky high deductibles or uninsured all together so the trend we see of people dying without ever seeing a hospital probably gets a lot worse. People who actually care to know the figures are getting bad data to go on suggesting it isn't as deadly as it truly is and that's a horrible reality of the suppression tactics by the Fed and state. 

Edited June 2, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[BrazilHorn 6635]

The case count of CV19 is going to have to spike with the combination of Memorial Day and Protests correct?

Whether or not this impacts continued re-opening remains to be seen but I would imagine that we will see a spike in cases across the board.

[Anastasis 23491]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

The case count of CV19 is going to have to spike with the combination of Memorial Day and Protests correct?

Whether or not this impacts continued re-opening remains to be seen but I would imagine that we will see a spike in cases across the board.

Yeah, I think so.  It will be very difficult to tease out what's really driving the increase. I know this thread is focused on Texas, but I think that places like NY are a bigger concern.  Fortunately most of the protesters are going to be relatively lower risk younger folks. We could maybe look at county by county numbers and try to tease out locations that had significant protest activity versus those that did not, but that probably just begins to look like an analysis of the most populous counties versus the smaller rural counties.

[BrazilHorn 6635]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Yeah, I think so.  It will be very difficult to tease out what's really driving the increase. I know this thread is focused on Texas, but I think that places like NY are a bigger concern.  Fortunately most of the protesters are going to be relatively lower risk younger folks. We could maybe look at county by county numbers and try to tease out locations that had significant protest activity versus those that did not, but that probably just begins to look like an analysis of the most populous counties versus the smaller rural counties.

Agree key to me is less the # with CV19 but the # that are hospitalized. I would imagine bulk of protestors (at least those at night) skew younger and doubtful will be impacted by CV19 adversely. Your regular day time protestors however have included older folks that could be in jeopardy.

[BradInATX 9208]

58 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Exactly. And the numbers provided by the CDC show that it's by a significant amount. I do believe the state leadership knows exactly what's happening and is refusing to admit or acknowledge it because it's information that contradicts their re-opening actions, but in no way do I think the individual MEs are being disingenuous. I just think they weren't provided the resources they need and without the ability to test the dead they don't feel right classifying a death as Covid even when it's pretty obvious. There's a poster on here who lost an aunt in this very scenario, and if I remember correctly she was never tested so I'd be shocked if she wasn't listed as pneumonia. If he could confirm that would be great. 

Unfortunately we won't know until months later when we get the CDC numbers on pneumonia deaths post May 29 just how deadly this full reopen truly was. A large percentage of our population is underinsured with sky high deductibles or uninsured all together so the trend we see of people dying without ever seeing a hospital probably gets a lot worse. People who actually care to know the figures are getting bad data to go on suggesting it isn't as deadly as it truly is and that's a horrible reality of the suppression tactics by the Fed and state. 

We should actually be able to track this by week, as I believe the link @justhookit posted updates on a weekly basis. So if you assume a two-week lag to death, we should be able to look at this pretty soon. It'll be interesting to see. 

One thing neither he or I did was look at trends to see whether Texas and the country as a whole seemed to be getting better or worse over time in terms of overreported P&I deaths (2020 vs. historical average trend). Maybe I'll do it when I have time but probably not unless one of you wants to pay my hourly rate. You can make checks payable to South Austin's mom on my behalf.

Edited June 2, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I’m not going to speculate without evidence but the two states I most distrust with their covid numbers are Texas and Florida.  Both state governments are run by Trump boot lickers and they’re both must win states for Trump to get re-elected.  If I lived in Texas, I’d be following the volume of obituaries in the local newspaper and ICU bed availability for my covid awareness. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We should actually be able to track this by week, as I believe the link @justhookit posted updates on a weekly basis. So if you assume a two-week lag to death, we should be able to look at this pretty soon. It'll be interesting to see. 

One thing neither he or I did was look at trends to see whether Texas and the country as a whole seemed to be getting better or worse over time in terms of overreported P&I deaths (2020 vs. historical average trend). Maybe I'll do it when I have time but probably not unless one of you wants to pay my hourly rate. You can make checks payable to South Austin's mom on my behalf.

That would definitely help but it needs to be total pneumonia deaths and not a percentage of total deaths because that percentage of total deaths metric includes a ton of unnecessary variables and doesn't account for Covid19 as a 2020 exclusive cause of more deaths. 

I'm open for reinterpretation if someone can bring actual raw data that differs from what I got from the CDC, provided it's from a reputable source or a self contradiction of the CDC itself. Right now all I could find from an official source is those numbers, and I don't think the CDC or Texas local MEs are falsifying information. 

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Wanker Bob said:

That would definitely help but it needs to be total pneumonia deaths and not a percentage of total deaths because that percentage of total deaths metric includes a ton of unnecessary variables and doesn't account for Covid19 as a 2020 exclusive cause of more deaths. 

I'm open for reinterpretation if someone can bring actual raw data that differs from what I got from the CDC, provided it's from a reputable source or a self contradiction of the CDC itself. Right now all I could find from an official source is those numbers, and I don't think the CDC or Texas local MEs are falsifying information. 

 

Not sure how justhookit did it, but I used their raw numbers for the table I posted where I showed Texas at +17% vs. historical P&I death averages, I used raw deaths, not percentage. When you download the raw data from that site, it provides raw and percentage. 

[justhookit 4191]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

 

Not sure how justhookit did it, but I used their raw numbers for the table I posted where I showed Texas at +17% vs. historical P&I death averages, I used raw deaths, not percentage. When you download the raw data from that site, it provides raw and percentage. 

Don’t tell him that, he wants to stick to the numbers from his chart

[justhookit 4191]

40 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m not going to speculate without evidence but the two states I most distrust with their covid numbers are Texas and Florida.  Both state governments are run by Trump boot lickers and they’re both must win states for Trump to get re-elected.  If I lived in Texas, I’d be following the volume of obituaries in the local newspaper and ICU bed availability for my covid awareness. 

Well, you’d be wrong. If you want to see states massively undereporting you can start with NY and NJ. Or just look at the numbers Brad posted on this page. It’s even color coded. We’ve beaten to death the Texas situation. We are clearly under reporting but it’s somewhere slightly less than 25%.

Here’s Florida pneumonia deaths- https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/05/27/is-covid-19-why-florida-has-about-1300-more-pneumonia-deaths-this-season-than-average-over-previous-five/. His numbers come from the CDC where you actually download the raw data instead of using some fucking chart like Wanker does.

2014-2015                 5510

2015-2016                 5214

2016-2017                 5540

2017-2018                 5792

2018-2019                 5374

2019-2020                 6772

But yeah @Wanker Bob Texas with close to 10 million greater population than Florida only averages 3000 annual pneumonia deaths or whatever number you keep throwing out there.

 

Edited June 2, 2020 by justhookit

[Anastasis 23491]

Just now, justhookit said:

Well, you’d be wrong. If you want to see states massively undereporting you can start with NY and NJ. We’ve beaten to death the Texas situation. We are clearly under reporting but it’s somewhere slightly less than 25%.

I haven't seen the numbers, but it is fairly logical that he states with the highest per capita case rates are going to have the greater under-reporting.  That doesn't fit Hugo's desire to shit on Texas every chance he gets though. 

[justhookit 4191]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I haven't seen the numbers, but it is fairly logical that he states with the highest per capita case rates are going to have the greater under-reporting.  That doesn't fit Hugo's desire to shit on Texas every chance he gets though. 

You quoted me before I edited but It’s about 15 posts above in Brad’s post. 

[ChuckNorrisActionJeans 2682]

4 hours ago, mchookem said:

you guys talk a bunch of fancy math talk 😋😁

i just want to know...is Texas fucked with the re-opening yet? or is it...kind of ok, we're weathering fairly well?

i'm not really venturing outside our neighborhood, as i've been following the Austin zip code heat map, and 78757 hasn't had any significant increase in numbers in over a month.

That's my 'hood and I saw a massive traffic jam with a ton of people and kids at the NAO baseball fields on Morrow this morning, it was apparent that today's the first day of a soccer league or camp. Will be interesting to see what happens with kids and their summer activities saying fuck-it to social distancing. My kid is home doing nothing until the 15th as it stands now.

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I haven't seen the numbers, but it is fairly logical that he states with the highest per capita case rates are going to have the greater under-reporting.  That doesn't fit Hugo's desire to shit on Texas every chance he gets though. 

Well, Louisiana is running laps around us in terms of underreporting. So fuck LSU.

[Wanker Bob 379]

55 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Well, you’d be wrong. If you want to see states massively undereporting you can start with NY and NJ. Or just look at the numbers Brad posted on this page. It’s even color coded. We’ve beaten to death the Texas situation. We are clearly under reporting but it’s somewhere slightly less than 25%.

Here’s Florida pneumonia deaths- https://www.emptywheel.net/2020/05/27/is-covid-19-why-florida-has-about-1300-more-pneumonia-deaths-this-season-than-average-over-previous-five/. His numbers come from the CDC where you actually download the raw data instead of using some fucking chart like Wanker does.

2014-2015                 5510

2015-2016                 5214

2016-2017                 5540

2017-2018                 5792

2018-2019                 5374

2019-2020                 6772

But yeah @Wanker Bob Texas with close to 10 million greater population than Florida only averages 3000 annual pneumonia deaths or whatever number you keep throwing out there.

 

I don't think that political website is sourcing their data correctly. Either that or the CDC has conflicting data in different parts of their website. Which wouldn't be a surprise under Trump.

Their CDC site isn't working on my mobile so I don't know how they're searching the metric but the year data for Florida pneumonia deaths from the CDC list I found was

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3091

2017 - 3057

2016 - 2808

2015 - 2676

2014 - 2719

 

And for 2020

5667 pneumonia and 302 influenza. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So why is the CDC putting out two different data sets for the same metric? Or did empty wheel source their data incorrectly?

 

 

 

[justhookit 4191]

LOL that is if anything a website that belongs to YOUR political party. They are making the same argument you are only they are using the proper source numbers.

i’m done with this conversation.

[BradInATX 9208]

55 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

I don't think that political website is sourcing their data correctly. Either that or the CDC has conflicting data in different parts of their website. Which wouldn't be a surprise under Trump.

Their CDC site isn't working on my mobile so I don't know how they're searching the metric but the year data for Florida pneumonia deaths from the CDC list I found was

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3091

2017 - 3057

2016 - 2808

2015 - 2676

2014 - 2719

 

And for 2020

5667 pneumonia and 302 influenza. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So why is the CDC putting out two different data sets for the same metric? Or did empty wheel source their data incorrectly?

 

 

 

Yeah - I don't really understand that either. The data source that justhookit and I have used shows something like 200k P&I deaths per year and other CDC sources show 50-60k. It's almost definitely two different data sources, but I can't explain the differences. You'd have to dig into the technical notes, I think.

[justhookit 4191]

@Dahobbs you any help here? With what @BradInATX is saying above. It bugged me at first too but every other source I found show the low CDC numbers to be way off. I’m way too lazy to look into it any further. I think we can all agree it’s bad data and we are undercounting. At the same time it’s pretty clearly not intentional and stems from poor testing, mostly early on, and it’s  not politically motivated.

Edited June 3, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4191]

20 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

Sorry, was distracted by other things and frankly tired and frustrated by this argument so left it alone for a day. 

And again, I'm not saying the state or localities are intentionally under-reporting covid deaths as pneumonia. I 100 percent think it's a function of the suppressing of tests especially in the first months of the pandemic. We still are in a situation where we don't have enough tests to test the living that need it and the deceased that died outside the hospital and never received tests. As far as I know no dead bodies brought to the morgue are being tested in Texas or anywhere else. That's where I believe the total covid deaths are being hidden. Without tests for positive confirmation the MEs are classifying as pneumonia because that's what the symptoms are. Therefore you have a situation where people either too poor or underinsured to go to the hospital are dying of covid and not being counted.

Dude, you can’t even keep your story straight.

”It was so predictable that red states would be vastly underreporting coronavirus deaths that we talked weeks ago about how to circumvent their corruption and get a real number idea. Merely classifying them as pneumonia deaths is extremely lazy even for republicans. It'll be very easy to see just how bad this is, and if those numbers are correct and representative of the nation we're pushing 200k easily right now. 

 

But now that you see that blue states are equally if not more guilty of “suppressing” the numbers I’m sure you will drop that line of reasoning. In short, you seem to be someone’s sock. Or an idoit. Either way fuck off we are dealing with enough bullshit as it is.

Edited June 3, 2020 by justhookit

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

Dude, you can’t even keep your story straight.

”It was so predictable that red states would be vastly underreporting coronavirus deaths that we talked weeks ago about how to circumvent their corruption and get a real number idea. Merely classifying them as pneumonia deaths is extremely lazy even for republicans. It'll be very easy to see just how bad this is, and if those numbers are correct and representative of the nation we're pushing 200k easily right now. 

 

But now that you see that blue states are equally if not more guilty of “suppressing” the numbers I’m sure you will drop that line of reasoning. In short, you seem to be someone’s sock. Or an idoit. Either way fuck off we are dealing with enough bullshit as it is.

Not sure why you're acting like a cunt but ok. I initially thought it was intentional but after looking at a few other states I figured out it was because of testing suppression. Which technically is intentional just by trump and not necessarily the states. 

I don't know which numbers are bullshit the ones you found or the ones I found so we just have to say fuck it. More people are going to die than will ever be officially counted just by X thousand or Y thousand. It's more deadly than they're letting on. 

Either way I'm done with this especially in light of your inability to keep it civilized. 

[justhookit 4191]

11 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Not sure why you're acting like a cunt but ok. I initially thought it was intentional but after looking at a few other states I figured out it was because of testing suppression. Which technically is intentional just by trump and not necessarily the states. 

I don't know which numbers are bullshit the ones you found or the ones I found so we just have to say fuck it. More people are going to die than will ever be officially counted just by X thousand or Y thousand. It's more deadly than they're letting on. 

Either way I'm done with this especially in light of your inability to keep it civilized. 

I can keep doing this if you like. This one is good too

Hmmm

Ok

You don’t like Texas much

12.1 million deaths?

And this is the post that actually brought you to my attention. You are a lying piece of shit.

 

[Dahobbs 17692]

17 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

I don't think that political website is sourcing their data correctly. Either that or the CDC has conflicting data in different parts of their website. Which wouldn't be a surprise under Trump.

Their CDC site isn't working on my mobile so I don't know how they're searching the metric but the year data for Florida pneumonia deaths from the CDC list I found was

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3091

2017 - 3057

2016 - 2808

2015 - 2676

2014 - 2719

 

And for 2020

5667 pneumonia and 302 influenza. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

So why is the CDC putting out two different data sets for the same metric? Or did empty wheel source their data incorrectly?

 

 

 

 

16 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Yeah - I don't really understand that either. The data source that justhookit and I have used shows something like 200k P&I deaths per year and other CDC sources show 50-60k. It's almost definitely two different data sources, but I can't explain the differences. You'd have to dig into the technical notes, I think.

 

9 hours ago, justhookit said:

@Dahobbs you any help here? With what @BradInATX is saying above. It bugged me at first too but every other source I found show the low CDC numbers to be way off. I’m way too lazy to look into it any further. I think we can all agree it’s bad data and we are undercounting. At the same time it’s pretty clearly not intentional and stems from poor testing, mostly early on, and it’s  not politically motivated.

I see why y'all are confused (though I'm unclear as to why what should be a neutral discussion of data has created such hostility). Anyway, you have to compare like data sets.

The CDC numbers showing ~50k pneumonia deaths a year (WankerBob's chart) are based on "underlying cause of death," which is statistic that tries to identify "the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury."  So, a  single underlying cause-of-death is selected from the numerous causes that may be listed on a death certificate through a set of factors (e.g., the sequence of conditions on the certificate, provisions of the ICD, and associated selection rules and modifications). (source)

 The CDC numbers showing ~200k pneumonia deaths a year are from the Fluview system. That system includes every death where pneumonia or influenza are listed anywhere on the death certificate. So, it will naturally be higher than a system that curates the potentially numerous causes down to a single underlying cause. ("The NCHS surveillance data are used to calculate the percent of all deaths occurring in a given week that had pneumonia and/or influenza listed as a cause of death.") (source)

So, the data is not bad or wrong. It is just different. You cannot compare those two sets of data to each other as they are trying to measure different things. You have to be careful and look at the methodology of the statistic you are citing, otherwise you will reach erroneous conclusions. 

[BradInATX 9208]

58 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

So, the data is not bad or wrong. It is just different. You cannot compare those two sets of data to each other as they are trying to measure different things. You have to be careful and look at the methodology of the statistic you are citing, otherwise you will reach erroneous conclusions. 

Well yeah, we know that, we were just too lazy to actually look at the methodologies and were hoping someone else would do it for us. 

Both justhookit and I used the dataset from Fluview. So based on what you found, some of that "overage" could actually be deaths that are already counted as Covid (so Covid+Pneumonia). Which would mean the undercounting is less pronounced than he and I came up with; though I doubt it influences it too much. Maybe a few percentage points.

[Wanker Bob 379]

10 hours ago, justhookit said:

I can keep doing this if you like. This one is good too

Hmmm

Ok

You don’t like Texas much

12.1 million deaths?

And this is the post that actually brought you to my attention. You are a lying piece of shit.

 

I'm embarrassed to be an American citizen and a resident of Texas right now. The reasons shouldn't be hard to garner at the moment. 

I didn't lie about anything. We talked to her, and I talked to Chitowndoc. After a week of people in her oncology office complaining they set up testing for them. 2 people in her office tested positive. One became sick during the week leading up to the test. Not sure how many if any cancer patients were infected while they refused to get expedited testing.

Once again, not sure why you want to be a cunt but I guess there's a lot of that going around this country at the moment. 

Edited June 3, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Wanker Bob 379]

3 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

I see why y'all are confused (though I'm unclear as to why what should be a neutral discussion of data has created such hostility). Anyway, you have to compare like data sets.

The CDC numbers showing ~50k pneumonia deaths a year (WankerBob's chart) are based on "underlying cause of death," which is statistic that tries to identify "the disease or injury which initiated the train of events leading directly to death, or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury."  So, a  single underlying cause-of-death is selected from the numerous causes that may be listed on a death certificate through a set of factors (e.g., the sequence of conditions on the certificate, provisions of the ICD, and associated selection rules and modifications). (source)

 The CDC numbers showing ~200k pneumonia deaths a year are from the Fluview system. That system includes every death where pneumonia or influenza are listed anywhere on the death certificate. So, it will naturally be higher than a system that curates the potentially numerous causes down to a single underlying cause. ("The NCHS surveillance data are used to calculate the percent of all deaths occurring in a given week that had pneumonia and/or influenza listed as a cause of death.") (source)

So, the data is not bad or wrong. It is just different. You cannot compare those two sets of data to each other as they are trying to measure different things. You have to be careful and look at the methodology of the statistic you are citing, otherwise you will reach erroneous conclusions. 

Thank you sir. In that case which data set would you think be best to use for this comparison when the outcome is to find covid deaths potentially classified as pneumonia?

I would think it would be the one that focuses on underlying cause of death but is that most likely to show the deaths marked pneumonia by the ME offices who cannot be tested for covid due to lack of available testing for deceased? 

[Dahobbs 17692]

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Well yeah, we know that, we were just too lazy to actually look at the methodologies and were hoping someone else would do it for us. 

Both justhookit and I used the dataset from Fluview. So based on what you found, some of that "overage" could actually be deaths that are already counted as Covid (so Covid+Pneumonia). Which would mean the undercounting is less pronounced than he and I came up with; though I doubt it influences it too much. Maybe a few percentage points.

Correct. 

20 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Thank you sir. In that case which data set would you think be best to use for this comparison when the outcome is to find covid deaths potentially classified as pneumonia?

I would think it would be the one that focuses on underlying cause of death but is that most likely to show the deaths marked pneumonia by the ME offices who cannot be tested for covid due to lack of available testing for deceased? 

I don't think underlying cause of death data is as readily or quickly available. Personally, I think that there may be too many traps to reliably do that exercise solely relying on the publicly available data . That said, perhaps a rough analysis could be made using the fluview data and comparing it to the provisional Covid-19 death data (source). I'm pretty sure the provisional data is reported the same way as fluview, but it isn't entirely clear.  It says it follows ICD guidelines, and its technical notes contain a discussion of underlying cause of death, but it doesn't appear to be reporting just the underlying cause of death. 

I think the excess death statistic is a much better indicator of potential under-counting, at least given the limitations of the public datasets. 

[mchookem 16408]

 

https://cbsaustin.com/amp/news/local/austin-sees-dramatic-rise-in-covid-19-cases-since-economy-started-reopening

says there's an uptick in hospitalizations, but doesn't provide numbers 

Edited June 3, 2020 by mchookem

[Anastasis 23491]

5 minutes ago, mchookem said:

 

https://cbsaustin.com/amp/news/local/austin-sees-dramatic-rise-in-covid-19-cases-since-economy-started-reopening

says there's an uptick in hospitalizations, but doesn't provide numbers 

[HenryJames 66188]

That article was regarded.

[BrazilHorn 6635]

13 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The notion of an uptick in cases being a "bad" thing is what is being inaccurately reported. It really does all matter if those cases end up in hospitalizations. As number of tests increase the absolute number of positives will as well. However if they are all asymptomatic that won't impact the health care system. The entire notion of "Shelter-in-place" is not to keep us from getting CV19 it is to keep us all from getting it at the exact same time and flooding the hospitals. We are all going to get it as no one has immunity built up to the strain. The real challenge is that America is full of fat people (I think I read 10% of US is >40 BMI) which is labeled "Extremely obese". Now I agree that the BMI chart can be off in some cases (mine eg I am 6'3" 208, labeled obese via BMI but I am very fit, workout daily etc) but CV has shown absolutely that if you are overweight it will run through and there are a lot of fatties in the US. Why the news doesn't report hospitalizations is beyond me (especially hospitalizations as a % of total positive cases)

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

Is there really an increase in the number of tests being performed in Texas?  The Texas Medical Center data disputes that narrative, at least in the greater Houston area. The 7 day trend of # of tests are significantly down from mid-May (>9,000 down to <6,000) while simultaneously the percent positive is up. 

I assume that testing capacity is higher than number of tests performed. At this point, is anyone turned away from an on-demand test? I don't know if it's free but that's another issue.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-testing-trends/

[TwiceHorn 31554]

On 5/28/2020 at 1:17 PM, Zepol87 said:

In Dallas it's called the I30 rule. Nothing new 

To be fair, when the only testing sites were government-run, they were in the hood.  Now that private medicine offers antibody testing, it will be offered where there are more clinics and hospitals.

Still a product of the neglect of Souf Dallas, but not intentional, most likely.

[BrazilHorn 6635]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Is there really an increase in the number of tests being performed in Texas?  The Texas Medical Center data disputes that narrative, at least in the greater Houston area. The 7 day trend of # of tests are significantly down from mid-May (>9,000 down to <6,000) while simultaneously the percent positive is up. 

I assume that testing capacity is higher than number of tests performed. At this point, is anyone turned away from an on-demand test? I don't know if it's free but that's another issue.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/covid-19-testing-trends/

In looking at it at the state level test count absolutely jumped up significantly from April to May and appears to be moving downwards in the latter part of May to early June. Hopitalizations as a % of those tested have reduced dramatically as well (from ~15% to ~7% April to May) as testing expanded from "just those who were sick" to people that were curious if they had it etc

[justhookit 4191]

On 6/3/2020 at 1:39 PM, Wanker Bob said:

I'm embarrassed to be an American citizen and a resident of Texas right now. The reasons shouldn't be hard to garner at the moment. 

I didn't lie about anything. We talked to her, and I talked to Chitowndoc. After a week of people in her oncology office complaining they set up testing for them. 2 people in her office tested positive. One became sick during the week leading up to the test. Not sure how many if any cancer patients were infected while they refused to get expedited testing.

Once again, not sure why you want to be a cunt but I guess there's a lot of that going around this country at the moment. 

Sorry man. I don’t agree with your first sentence but I shouldn’t have lashed out at you like I did. My bad. I put myself in basically a 48 hour timeout.

if what you are saying is true, they need to  be called out. I guess I can’t believe that someone in that office wouldn’t squeal. They are setting themselves up for a huge lawsuit. 

Peace ✌️🤘

[justhookit 4191]

On 6/3/2020 at 10:53 AM, BradInATX said:

Well yeah, we know that, we were just too lazy to actually look at the methodologies and were hoping someone else would do it for us. 

Both justhookit and I used the dataset from Fluview. So based on what you found, some of that "overage" could actually be deaths that are already counted as Covid (so Covid+Pneumonia). Which would mean the undercounting is less pronounced than he and I came up with; though I doubt it influences it too much. Maybe a few percentage points.

Yup. Although I’m way way too lazy to do the work. I *think* the undercount is significant. I also don’t believe it was anywhere near the level that would change what Texas is doing. That would take bodies in trees.

[UT_OB1 2225]

On 6/4/2020 at 10:44 AM, BrazilHorn said:

In looking at it at the state level test count absolutely jumped up significantly from April to May and appears to be moving downwards in the latter part of May to early June. Hopitalizations as a % of those tested have reduced dramatically as well (from ~15% to ~7% April to May) as testing expanded from "just those who were sick" to people that were curious if they had it etc

Where are you pulling the chart for the antibody test from?  And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13588]

“We’ve seen a pretty steady increase in both admissions and ICU admissions over the past week or so,” said Dr. James McDeavitt, Senior Vice President and Dean of Clinical Affairs for the Baylor College of Medicine. “A day in itself is not alarming. The disturbing thing is it seems to be a little bit more every day. It’s been a very consistent increase.”

 

https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/06/05/med-center-sees-uptick-in-covid-19-patients-in-icus-warns-if-trend-continues-capacity-could-be-exceeded-in-2-weeks/