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Posted
  On 7/22/2020 at 9:41 PM, Dahobbs said:

I have no idea where you are getting your numbers. It isn't from the CDC link provided: total deaths listed for influenza and/or pneumonia stand at 2,141 for Texas.  The upper range for total excess deaths (weighted to account for incomplete reporting) for Texas stands at  8,406 (including Covid). If you exclude covid, the upper range for total excess deaths in Texas is 4,324 (all other causes).  

I'm confident you are misunderstanding the data, but I can't really tell how until you point out what data set you're actually using. 

I'll also add that I don't blame anyone for getting confused by it. The data is grouped in strange ways that aren't, to me at least, consistent with best practices. I believe this is because it is a report of a report, rather than actual raw data from the government data set. 

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Possibly. Although I've run it by several people who have a much better professional understanding of statistics than me and they agreed it seemed sound. All depends on if the data is sound. Got it here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Posted (edited)
  On 7/22/2020 at 10:15 PM, Wanker Bob said:

Possibly. Although I've run it by several people who have a much better professional understanding of statistics than me and they agreed it seemed sound. All depends on if the data is sound. Got it here

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

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Ok, there are a lot of different data sources in that link, but I'm thinking you mean Table 1. 

As discussed previously, those are multi-cause numbers. That roughly 3,000 a year pneumonia average you referenced earlier is for the "underlying cause," not the multi-cause number. The multi-cause (meaning listed anywhere on the death certificate) yearly death average for pneamonia would be much, much larger than 3,000. If you want to compare apples-to-apples, compare your ~3,000 yearly pneumonia average to the 2,141 number I provided above (current underlying cause count). 

The 8,003 pneumonia deaths to date listed include some Covid-19 deaths, i.e., when the death certificate listed both covid-19 and pneumonia (appears to be 1,640 deaths). But, it excludes deaths, including potentially covid-19 deaths, when the death certificate also listed influenza.

I'll summarize the columns of the table for you for clarity:

  • Column G (Covid-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where Covid-19 was identified somewhere on the death certificate (not just underlying cause deaths). That number is 3,705.
  • Column H (Total Deaths) lists the total number of deaths recorded. That number is 100,356. 
  • Column J (Pneumonia Deaths) lists all deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate except those also listing influenza. That number is 8,003.
  • Column K (Pneumonia and COVID-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where both Covid-19 and Pneumonia are on the death certificate except those also listing influenza. That number is 1,640)
  • Column L (Influenza Deaths) lists all deaths where influenza is listed anywhere on the death certificate. That count is 300. 
  • Column M (Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where either Pneumonia, influenza, or Covid-19 are listed on the death certificate. It necessarily includes all 8,003 pneumonia deaths, all 300 influenza deaths, and all 3,705 Covid-19 deaths. Both the total will be less than the sum of those numbers because there is significant overlap. That number is 10,404. 

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Posted

Good news, I never approved of him.
Now he's lost his conservative buddies too because they view him as a RINO.

I think it took him too long to do what he's done and hasn't gone far enough.
They think he's gone way too far.

And funny, greggy is in the middle getting pummelled.

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Posted (edited)
  On 7/22/2020 at 10:54 PM, InkaUtexas said:

His performance sucks. 

That said, how is the Gov of your great state doing? Saw your numbers are climbing. Any updates? 

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Y’all Texans are a weird bunch.  I’m in the exact same boat as you.  This isn’t a sports competition. Abbott’s decisions affect me probably more than my governor’s.  I live half an hour from Texas and the virus doesn’t see borders. 

Louisiana’s governor isn’t great either if it makes you feel better. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 12:09 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Louisiana’s governor isn’t great either if it make you feel better. 

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Compared to his immediate predecessor, he's pretty good.

I love how hated he is by the republicans in that state - he's a fairly conservative democrat, I'd have problems voting for him for his abortion views.

Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 12:09 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Y’all Texans are a weird bunch.  I’m in the exact same boat as you.  This isn’t a sports competition. Abbott’s decisions affect me probably more than my governor’s.  I live half an hour from Texas and the virus doesn’t see borders. 

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Ummm, I'm pretty sure it's not getting by our brand new border wall with Mexico.The Orange Man out front should've told ya.

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Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 12:02 AM, relapse98 said:

Good news, I never approved of him.
Now he's lost his conservative buddies too because they view him as a RINO.

I think it took him too long to do what he's done and hasn't gone far enough.
They think he's gone way too far.

And funny, greggy is in the middle getting pummelled.

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Stuck between a tree and a hard place

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Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 12:09 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Y’all Texans are a weird bunch.  I’m in the exact same boat as you.  This isn’t a sports competition. Abbott’s decisions affect me probably more than my governor’s.  I live half an hour from Texas and the virus doesn’t see borders. 

Louisiana’s governor isn’t great either if it makes you feel better. 

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Bro, I was just asking. Chill out. 

Posted

My Lord, almost 200 souls lost.  That's pretty terrible.  Also a new high in hospitalizations.  Positivity is about 15%.  Another bad day.  Cases are starting to tick down a little if we're looking for silver linings.  As a leading indicator, maybe our peak may start ending in about 10 days.

 

Posted (edited)

y'all understand that archive.org captures things like the CDC's covid/pneumonia page, right?

 

edit: looks like the change to the header happened june 11

Edited by elfenix
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Posted
  On 7/22/2020 at 10:45 PM, Dahobbs said:

Ok, there are a lot of different data sources in that link, but I'm thinking you mean Table 1. 

As discussed previously, those are multi-cause numbers. That roughly 3,000 a year pneumonia average you referenced earlier is for the "underlying cause," not the multi-cause number. The multi-cause (meaning listed anywhere on the death certificate) yearly death average for pneamonia would be much, much larger than 3,000. If you want to compare apples-to-apples, compare your ~3,000 yearly pneumonia average to the 2,141 number I provided above (current underlying cause count). 

The 8,003 pneumonia deaths to date listed include some Covid-19 deaths, i.e., when the death certificate listed both covid-19 and pneumonia (appears to be 1,640 deaths). But, it excludes deaths, including potentially covid-19 deaths, when the death certificate also listed influenza.

I'll summarize the columns of the table for you for clarity:

  • Column G (Covid-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where Covid-19 was identified somewhere on the death certificate (not just underlying cause deaths). That number is 3,705.
  • Column H (Total Deaths) lists the total number of deaths recorded. That number is 100,356. 
  • Column J (Pneumonia Deaths) lists all deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate except those also listing influenza. That number is 8,003.
  • Column K (Pneumonia and COVID-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where both Covid-19 and Pneumonia are on the death certificate except those also listing influenza. That number is 1,640)
  • Column L (Influenza Deaths) lists all deaths where influenza is listed anywhere on the death certificate. That count is 300. 
  • Column M (Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where either Pneumonia, influenza, or Covid-19 are listed on the death certificate. It necessarily includes all 8,003 pneumonia deaths, all 300 influenza deaths, and all 3,705 Covid-19 deaths. Both the total will be less than the sum of those numbers because there is significant overlap. That number is 10,404. 

 

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This is not going to go over very well with Bob.

Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 12:09 AM, Hugo Stiglitz said:
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  14 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Louisiana’s governor isn’t great either if it makes you feel better. 

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in Ohio last week (visiting family)...Dewine had a primetime address last Wednesday, after watching i felt even worse about Texas. 

i told my inlaws "i am really, really envious of your republican governor." 😐

the dearth of competent leadership in this country is astounding.

Posted

I think Abbott is out to piss off everyone in the state.

TABC reverses new guidelines, forces breweries to close patios again

TABC created an option for temporary license modifications to allow breweries to exclude the patio and outdoor beer gardens from their on premise license - so you could purchase the beer inside, then take it outside to drink. Then last night they reversed that and said they can't do that.

Jesus fucking christ, figure it out. Really, go either way, but this bouncing back and forth within the same  week is insane.

Posted
  On 7/22/2020 at 10:45 PM, Dahobbs said:

Ok, there are a lot of different data sources in that link, but I'm thinking you mean Table 1. 

As discussed previously, those are multi-cause numbers. That roughly 3,000 a year pneumonia average you referenced earlier is for the "underlying cause," not the multi-cause number. The multi-cause (meaning listed anywhere on the death certificate) yearly death average for pneamonia would be much, much larger than 3,000. If you want to compare apples-to-apples, compare your ~3,000 yearly pneumonia average to the 2,141 number I provided above (current underlying cause count). 

The 8,003 pneumonia deaths to date listed include some Covid-19 deaths, i.e., when the death certificate listed both covid-19 and pneumonia (appears to be 1,640 deaths). But, it excludes deaths, including potentially covid-19 deaths, when the death certificate also listed influenza.

I'll summarize the columns of the table for you for clarity:

  • Column G (Covid-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where Covid-19 was identified somewhere on the death certificate (not just underlying cause deaths). That number is 3,705.
  • Column H (Total Deaths) lists the total number of deaths recorded. That number is 100,356. 
  • Column J (Pneumonia Deaths) lists all deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate except those also listing influenza. That number is 8,003.
  • Column K (Pneumonia and COVID-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where both Covid-19 and Pneumonia are on the death certificate except those also listing influenza. That number is 1,640)
  • Column L (Influenza Deaths) lists all deaths where influenza is listed anywhere on the death certificate. That count is 300. 
  • Column M (Pneumonia, Influenza, or COVID-19 Deaths) lists all deaths where either Pneumonia, influenza, or Covid-19 are listed on the death certificate. It necessarily includes all 8,003 pneumonia deaths, all 300 influenza deaths, and all 3,705 Covid-19 deaths. Both the total will be less than the sum of those numbers because there is significant overlap. That number is 10,404. 

 

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I was using the state specific info from table 2. 

I was under the impression you had said last time that info was the primary cause of death info. If I got that backwards then my mistake. 

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Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 5:43 PM, Wanker Bob said:

I was using the state specific info from table 2. 

I was under the impression you had said last time that info was the primary cause of death info. If I got that backwards then my mistake. 

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It literally can't be, as the very premise of multiple columns in the table is that more than one cause can be associated with a death (e.g., covid-19 AND pneumonia).  Again, it is confusing because multiple data sources, using different methodologies, are available on the same page. The provisional numbers in Table 1 and Table 2 here (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) use any cause of death. On the other hand, the excess death count here (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) relies on underlying cause of death. I have no idea why they've presented the data in such a confusing fashion. 

Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 3:34 PM, relapse98 said:
I think Abbott is out to piss off everyone in the state.
TABC reverses new guidelines, forces breweries to close patios again
TABC created an option for temporary license modifications to allow breweries to exclude the patio and outdoor beer gardens from their on premise license - so you could purchase the beer inside, then take it outside to drink. Then last night they reversed that and said they can't do that.

Jesus fucking christ, figure it out. Really, go either way, but this bouncing back and forth within the same  week is insane.
It's because they are just simply guessing at this time. Bunch of hypotheses but no way to isolate variables to get a true scientific answer.
Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 6:30 PM, ousuxndallas said:
  On 7/23/2020 at 3:34 PM, relapse98 said:
I think Abbott is out to piss off everyone in the state.
TABC reverses new guidelines, forces breweries to close patios again
TABC created an option for temporary license modifications to allow breweries to exclude the patio and outdoor beer gardens from their on premise license - so you could purchase the beer inside, then take it outside to drink. Then last night they reversed that and said they can't do that.

Jesus fucking christ, figure it out. Really, go either way, but this bouncing back and forth within the same  week is insane.
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It's because they are just simply guessing at this time. Bunch of hypotheses but no way to isolate variables to get a true scientific answer.

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Nah, this has nothing to do with science or thinking it’s necessary closure to control covid. It’s typical TABC bullshit and politics.

Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 6:21 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

like the illegal alien caravan that never made it to the border in 2018?

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Yup they've drummed up scary shit in the past to scare people into voting for them.  It only stands to reason that the other side also drummed up this current scary shit to get them pushed out.  So of course it will go away after the election.  Just remember, when they say it's going away, it means they are projecting their fake crises actions onto this real crisis.

Posted
  On 7/23/2020 at 6:53 PM, NameAlreadyInUse said:

Yup they've drummed up scary shit in the past to scare people into voting for them.  It only stands to reason that the other side also drummed up this current scary shit to get them pushed out.  So of course it will go away after the election.  Just remember, when they say it's going away, it means they are projecting their fake crises actions onto this real crisis.

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This is exactly why they believe in conspiracy theories.  They would make up insane bullshit to win, so why wouldn't everyone else?

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Posted

Silver lining is cases are starting to come down as well as positivity rate.  We're in the eye of the storm..... gonna be rough for awhile.

We're probably going to get past 6k deaths in the by mid August unless this thing slows down.  The fatality number will be nothing to boast about especially when you consider pop density of the state.

 

Posted
  On 7/24/2020 at 11:01 PM, Patrick Bateman said:

Silver lining is cases are starting to come down as well as positivity rate.  We're in the eye of the storm..... gonna be rough for awhile.

We're probably going to get past 6k deaths in the by mid August unless this thing slows down.  The fatality number will be nothing to boast about especially when you consider pop density of the state.

 

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If we average 175 deaths a day, we're there by 8/1ish. 

Posted

https://www.thedailybeast.com/i-was-a-military-covid-planner-trust-me-texas-is-in-deep-deep-trouble?via=newsletter&source=BI-end-week-digest

 

  Quote

Like many of my fellow Texans, I was shocked when Senator Ted Cruz was recently spotted not wearing a mask on a flight from Dallas to Houston as COVID-19 cases were spiking across the state. Pandemic petulance is pretty on brand for the junior senator, but his latest fit of obstinacy comes at a particularly dangerous time: hurricane season.

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  Quote

This is a personal issue for me. Up until my recent retirement from the Army, I served as a COVID-19 crisis planner at NORTHCOM in Colorado Springs. I was part of the team managing this crisis since January, when we first started evacuating U.S. citizens out of China. Further, my active duty military career was bifurcated by a stint in the Army Reserves. During that time, I worked in Emergency Management at the state and local level in Texas. I was in the Texas Emergency Operations Center on Sept. 11, and I’ve worked disasters all over, including several hurricanes. 

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  Quote

And a hurricane in the middle of a pandemic was very much on our minds at NORTHCOM. We started calling it the COVICANE. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is calling for an above-average Atlantic Hurricane Season this year with a possibility of 19 named storms. We based some of our planning off Hurricane Harvey, which struck Cruz’s hometown of Houston in 2017. Typically, the National Guard and some active duty forces respond to hurricanes to provide things like search and rescue, engineering, and medical support. Rooftop helicopter rescues make for dramatic footage, but the truth is that the military does not do the bulk of the work. Instead, volunteer organizations like the Red Cross lead the effort by managing shelters, feeding the hungry, and processing displaced families. My team looked at how COVID-19 might impact volunteers. What we found was scary.

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  Reveal hidden contents

 

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 5:26 PM, Pig Bellmont said:

Things don’t seem to be slowing at all. Gov Abbott content to ride this out. 

Meanwhile, don’t tell me this isn’t having a political effect:

 

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New daily cases appear to be falling in Texas now after the mask order, but deaths lag by a couple weeks based on the charts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

(No paywall for NYTimes' Covid coverage.)

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 5:57 PM, bolverk said:

New daily cases appear to be falling in Texas now after the mask order, but deaths lag by a couple weeks based on the charts here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/texas-coronavirus-cases.html

(No paywall for NYTimes' Covid coverage.)

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If you have the power to enact policy that has proven effective around the world, why wouldn’t you order shelter in place for hot spot areas? Yes, masks are good but you’ve already got hospital systems set to pick and choose who gets treatment and who dies. Is it enough?

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Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 6:35 PM, Pig Bellmont said:

If you have the power to enact policy that has proven effective around the world, why wouldn’t you order shelter in place for hot spot areas? Yes, masks are good but you’ve already got hospital systems set to pick and choose who gets treatment and who dies. Is it enough?

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Personally, I'd allow the locals to decide when and how to enforce any quarantine orders. And, yeah, what we've got is probably not enough to tamp it down like we're seeing in the Northeast and Europe, but it's all we're going to get from this governor.

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 6:53 PM, bolverk said:

Personally, I'd allow the locals to decide when and how to enforce any quarantine orders.

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You know, I'm usually of a local control kind of guy. I think we should have strong hot spot rules, like he's already done with hospitals and elective surgery. But I don't trust all those officials to do the right thing, hell, I can't even trust the governor to do the right thing. We've already had sheriffs come out and say f your state executive order, I'm not enforcing that. And as far as I can tell, there's nothing that can be done to force them to enforce it outside of the ballot box. The governor doesn't have any power to compel another elected official to do his job besides bullying him.

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 6:53 PM, bolverk said:
Personally, I'd allow the locals to decide when and how to enforce any quarantine orders. And, yeah, what we've got is probably not enough to tamp it down like we're seeing in the Northeast and Europe, but it's all we're going to get from this governor.

I would agree except for the fact that places like Bug Tussle will issue no mandatory orders because “MUH FREEDOM!” and then when they all get sick they’ll be transported to hospitals in a place with precautions like Huntsville and put stress and pressure on their hospitals.

Our freedom of movement and inadequate healthcare facilities in rural areas are huge detriments in a pandemic.
Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 8:18 PM, relapse98 said:

You know, I'm usually of a local control kind of guy. I think we should have strong hot spot rules, like he's already done with hospitals and elective surgery. But I don't trust all those officials to do the right thing, hell, I can't even trust the governor to do the right thing. We've already had sheriffs come out and say f your state executive order, I'm not enforcing that. And as far as I can tell, there's nothing that can be done to force them to enforce it outside of the ballot box. The governor doesn't have any power to compel another elected official to do his job besides bullying him.

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  On 7/27/2020 at 8:51 PM, Bama Chick said:


I would agree except for the fact that places like Bug Tussle will issue no mandatory orders because “MUH FREEDOM!” and then when they all get sick they’ll be transported to hospitals in a place with precautions like Huntsville and put stress and pressure on their hospitals.

Our freedom of movement and inadequate healthcare facilities in rural areas are huge detriments in a pandemic.

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Y'all are both probably right. I guess I would *theoretically* prefer the local option but after looking at Covid discussion on my hometown's "bitch about shit we don't understand" Facebook Group, I don't have a lot of confidence in them doing the right thing either.

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 10:35 PM, Patrick Bateman said:

Shocking!!!!!  And now do deaths at home who were exhibiting symptoms but hadn't had a positive test who died at home...... Probably another 1k there too.  For folks that thought Texas wasn't suppressing the numbers, welp.

 

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Republican voter:  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 10:35 PM, Patrick Bateman said:

Shocking!!!!!  And now do deaths at home who were exhibiting symptoms but hadn't had a positive test who died at home...... Probably another 1k there too.  For folks that thought Texas wasn't suppressing the numbers, welp.

 

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Ya don't say

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Posted

 

  On 7/27/2020 at 11:18 PM, Mapache said:

What a dickhead

 

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I got through 40 seconds of that and moved on.  

  On 7/27/2020 at 5:26 PM, Pig Bellmont said:

Things don’t seem to be slowing at all. Gov Abbott content to ride this out. 

Meanwhile, don’t tell me this isn’t having a political effect:

 

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I wonder how much of that deficit is due to the GOP withholding funds?   I was talking to one of those Blue congressional candidates, Kennedy, just this afternoon.  His opponent is Sessions and he figures that skink will just hit up all those corporate PACs he cultivated the first time around.   

But Rick is within striking distance though.  If any of you are in district 17, go to his site and find the link for a virtual door knocking.  He's scheduling 15 minutes on Zoom for anyone who wants to visit with him.  He spends at least half the day on the phone or in a teleconference of some type.  And btw, he's not swimming in contributions like the graph would have you believe so ante up.  

 

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 10:35 PM, Patrick Bateman said:
Shocking!!!!!  And now do deaths at home who were exhibiting symptoms but hadn't had a positive test who died at home...... Probably another 1k there too.  For folks that thought Texas wasn't suppressing the numbers, welp.

[/url]  

I was chatting with an EMT today while he was waiting on a patient and he said the number of calls they’ve gotten for unattended at homes deaths has skyrocketed over the last 6-8 weeks.

 

And given the high demand for tests right now I have to wonder if they have to triage who gets priority. And I imagine dead folks aren’t a priority.

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 11:43 PM, Wanker Bob said:

Ya don't say

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You continually prove that you have no understanding of data and how it is reported.  This isn’t a change in total death numbers. It isn’t a change in death causes. It’s how it gets reported. Period. This new news also doesn’t align very well with your “hiding deaths  by reporting them as pneumonia” theory.

Posted
  On 7/27/2020 at 11:43 PM, Wanker Bob said:

Ya don't say

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You do math right? Basic math? No need to call in your expert statisticians for this one. That increase in covid death count is a little over 12%.  Ive continually told you that we are likely undercounting deaths by 25%. The new count is a Trump thing which I am sure twists your little pea brain. Blame Abbott or Trump. Your choice. Choose one. But we both know you will choose both. And then the number is still not high enough for you.

Now that you moved off that argument to focus on the school or no school, stay there. There is no math involved. You can continue to post in complete histrionics your opinion that there shouldn’t be school. By the way I agree with you there but it’s a much more difficult argument than you make it out to be.



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