Texas Re-Opening Announced

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Oh, now you give a shit that people can’t get medical care?  The fuck out of here.

I’ve never been opposed to people getting medical care. Literally it’s baked into the system that we will do  medical care for all and has been my entire life. And I’ve never advocated for turning people out and telling them to die in the streets! 

Its amazing to me that in your mind you can literally build anyone who doesn’t think exactly like you into the reincarnation of hitler and a homicidal sociopath, but I’m afraid you are mistaken. Again, I’m pretty sure it’s something like a single digit percentage of people who would like that- I’ve never in my entire life argued against Medicaid. Hell, I’m pretty sure I’ve never even argued against treating an undocumented worker that shows up in the ER. 

[Biff Tannen 46165]

36 minutes ago, zork said:

Latest CDC numbers, gathered the same science-y way each year I suspect, some argue the data is delayed but still it is compared against similarly delayed previous years(same science), show Texas at 93% of expected all deaths thus far for the week as of 5-9-2020.   for reference:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3bC8l68kMc0X8xcagMyMwS3ijD3v8PikMb7I7lTXvc_T6UHOJRq21PREU

 

 

 

Serious comment, not trolling.  I would like to see the numbers for vehicle related fatalities.  Surely that has gone way down.

[zork 629]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

Serious comment, not trolling.  I would like to see the numbers for vehicle related fatalities.  Surely that has gone way down.

no doubt there has been and will be tradeoffs.  9 of the locations tracked are over 100%, some significantly so.  

[elfenix 34749]

Latest CDC numbers, gathered the same science-y way each year I suspect, some argue the data is delayed but still it is compared against similarly delayed previous years(same science), show Texas at 93% of expected all deaths thus far for the week as of 5-9-2020.   for reference:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3bC8l68kMc0X8xcagMyMwS3ijD3v8PikMb7I7lTXvc_T6UHOJRq21PREU


 
 
 

From the notes it looks like what's being compared is all deaths in past years to not all deaths in the current year. If that's the case then the % is useless.

[zork 629]

8 minutes ago, elfenix said:

1 hour ago, zork said:

Latest CDC numbers, gathered the same science-y way each year I suspect, some argue the data is delayed but still it is compared against similarly delayed previous years(same science), show Texas at 93% of expected all deaths thus far for the week as of 5-9-2020.   for reference:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR3bC8l68kMc0X8xcagMyMwS3ijD3v8PikMb7I7lTXvc_T6UHOJRq21PREU


 
 
 

Read more  

From the notes it looks like what's being compared is all deaths in past years to not all deaths in the current year. If that's the case then the % is useless.

Will you quote what you are referencing?  My reading of it was it is a weekly number as compared with the average of the 2 years previous, thus expected deaths are that average number as a benchmark, weekly data.  So yes it is from previous a previous years metric, but it is just that, something the CDC does routinely.

[lemonlime 5503]

9 minutes ago, zork said:

Will you quote what you are referencing?  My reading of it was it is a weekly number as compared with the average of the 2 years previous, thus expected deaths are that average number as a benchmark, weekly data.  So yes it is from previous a previous years metric, but it is just that, something the CDC does routinely.

 No.  It's not.  It's deaths reported, which have a lag time of 1-8 weeks depending on the jurisdiction, compared to all reported deaths (no lag obviously) from the last 2 years.  EMA or some other trumpy type quoted the same web page and there was lengthy discussion a few days ago in the Covid thread of the lag time and why the numbers aren't accurate.

[lemonlime 5503]

20 minutes ago, zork said:

Will you quote what you are referencing?  My reading of it was it is a weekly number as compared with the average of the 2 years previous, thus expected deaths are that average number as a benchmark, weekly data.  So yes it is from previous a previous years metric, but it is just that, something the CDC does routinely.

Also, since you didn't bother to read your own link, which states in multiple places including the second sentence that the 2020 death numbers are not complete:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

 It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

Things to know about the data

Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as additional records are received and processed. Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years. Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions report deaths on a daily basis, while others report deaths weekly or monthly. In addition, vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities.

[zork 629]

17 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

Also, since you didn't bother to read your own link, which states in multiple places including the second sentence that the 2020 death numbers are not complete:

NOTE: Number of deaths reported in this table are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period.

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

 It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

Things to know about the data

Provisional counts are not final and are subject to change. Counts from previous weeks are continually revised as additional records are received and processed. Provisional data are not yet complete. Counts will not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for more recent periods. However, we can estimate how complete our numbers are by looking at the average number of deaths reported in previous years. Death counts should not be compared across jurisdictions. Some jurisdictions report deaths on a daily basis, while others report deaths weekly or monthly. In addition, vital record reporting may also be affected or delayed by COVID-19 related response activities.

I read it, all of it.gif.  Of course there are and were caveats in the footnotes.  Nobody is disputing that.  I was comparing, mainly, Texas this year vs Texas on an expected deaths rate from 2017-2019 as footnote "2" mentions:

Quote

²Percent of expected deaths is the number of deaths for all causes for this week in 2020 compared to the average number across the same week in 2017–2019.

That was the assumption I used in my reporting of the Texas figures.  Any comparisons were made only against themselves.  Meaning, the expected rate for X state against that data from that state.  only 10 or less jurisdictions are above their expected rate as rated against each state individually.

That there is a lag in data is something you can say is expected.  As the notes mention on the technical page that there are normally 1-2 weeks of lag time for x percentage of the death reports that are automated then 1-8 weeks for the hand reported.  Each State is different.  

I thought it was interesting data so I shared it.  If you look at the data on the sheets from a couple weeks ago when I first put it up the percentage for Texas is about the same as now, about two weeks later.

Let's continue to watch the data from actual death certificates from the organizations that actually track them every week of every year for the past X years using their science-ful ways.

Edited May 12, 2020 by zork

[elfenix 34749]

48 minutes ago, zork said:

Of course there are and were caveats in the footnotes.  Nobody is disputing that.  I was comparing, mainly, Texas this year vs Texas on an expected deaths rate from 2017-2019 as footnote "2" mentions:

but that's a useless figure if the historical deaths reported number is complete (that is, if 100 deaths occurred during that period they are counted for in that period regardless of the reporting delay) vs. the current death count which has several delays built into it and may be 8 weeks in arrears.  even if the historical number is deaths certificates reported in historical weeks (that is, in week 0 there were 50 deaths so in week 1 the 50 death certificates were received and counted, so then you're comparing death certs processed in week 1 to death certs processed in week 1 in the current period), from the notes it appears that covid is causing delays in processing the death certs, so the numbers still wouldn't be comparable. 

Edited May 12, 2020 by elfenix

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 hour ago, zork said:

Will you quote what you are referencing?  My reading of it was it is a weekly number as compared with the average of the 2 years previous, thus expected deaths are that average number as a benchmark, weekly data.  So yes it is from previous a previous years metric, but it is just that, something the CDC does routinely.

There's zero way you will ever be able to spin this into being like a flu or not very bad or minimize it because it is that bad. All the number tricking and propaganda in the world can't change that this is killing more Americans in a short amount of time than years long wars did. That's not even to mention how many it's causing to suffer debilitating and horrific pain and suffering and lengthy hospitalization that even after survival will be a financial albatross around many necks. 

Just stop it already. You backed a sadistic and fucked up political party that has shown truly evil colors in this disaster. You can't rationalize that to us. 

[Guest Lobo]

Look we were gonna have 80,000 Americans die in the last couple months anyway.  We don't shut down the economy because of cancer.

[High Plains Drifter 11187]

7 hours ago, Born to Run said:

Well Potus literally said he doesn't like test because they make us look bad.

 

So yes I do.

Especially considering testing capabilities around the rest of the world.

 

The rest of the world raced to secure mask also. Our leaders say they don't work and refuse to wear them.

 

 

We've redefined American Exceptionalism to mean the entire world largely agrees on solutions and best practices Except America.

Evil? Probably. Incredibly Stupid? Definitely

 

 

Incredibly stupid = evil

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[Pancho 46303]

My gym has emailed us about opening at 5am on Monday:

- Water fountains will be turned off

- Gym will be deep cleaned (whatever that means) every night and associates will regularly clean high-touch surfaces

- Per the email, "Bring and wear a mask is you choose."  WTF? 

 

 

[kevwun 16438]

Well if you require people to wear a mask, there's a fair chance you end up with a bunch of societal rejects lined up outside your business playing army dress-up and carrying ARs.

[gmr548 16697]

Well if you require people to wear a mask, there's a fair chance you end up with a bunch of societal rejects lined up outside your business playing army dress-up and carrying ARs.

Who wouldn't want to be the official gym of fightin texum aggy?

[4th&Five 42004]

23 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

she doesn't know where it came from?  who filled out all the paperwork?

[DDD Dad 14648]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

My gym has emailed us about opening at 5am on Monday:

- Water fountains will be turned off

- Gym will be deep cleaned (whatever that means) every night and associates will regularly clean high-touch surfaces

- Per the email, "Bring and wear a mask is you choose."  WTF? 

 

 

My gym has elected not to open.  Owner (who is a friend and client) is being responsible and generating revenue by running daily online video classes and group Zoom videos.

[conVINCEd 21477]

13 hours ago, longhornmatt said:

So, we’re at 93% of expected deaths if you don’t factor in an 8 week lag time during which deaths have yet to be reported, that just happens to coincide with the 8 weeks of coronavirus infestation. 

Mission Fucking Accomplished!   This is the healthiest report in America’s history, or at least since that one time we reported Gettysburg casualties as zero with a footnote that the number might increase once we send people to the battlefield to count bodies.

Sample size of one, but it took nearly a month to get a death certificate in Collin County.  My aunt died a month ago today, and we are finally going to be able to bury her tomorrow.

[mdmost 44029]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

she doesn't know where it came from?  who filled out all the paperwork?

Probably the same people who set up her Go Fund Me page. 

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

2 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

My gym has elected not to open.  Owner (who is a friend and client) is being responsible and generating revenue by running daily online video classes and group Zoom videos.

I wasn’t sure I would be ready to go back on the 18th, but I definitely am. Seems like my gym is taking necessary precautions. I’m losing steam with home workouts and I’m a pretty big fitness fanatic, so we’ll see how it goes. I’m in Tarrant county so it being more MAGA country, it seems like those of us taking it seriously are in the minority. If it feels like my gym is only taking minor steps to make it look like they are complying then eventually becoming lax, I’ll just cancel my membership. I’m only here in Fort Worth for a couple more months, thank god. 

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13628]

Leanderthal gon Leanderthal

"The incident occurred because the male subject was upset about the purchasing limits of meat products," Leander police wrote. "The male subject is seen, in video surveillance, throwing an individual packaged steak and a bag of lettuce at a cashier."

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-grocery-customer-upset-over-coronavirus-restrictions-throws-steak-lettuce-cashier-1503289

[SaucyJack 3520]

On 5/11/2020 at 8:55 AM, Mrs Whiggins said:

Because it's brought to you by the same people who believe that "intelligent design" is on equal footing with the scientific method and that the 'intelligent' part is optional.

For gods' sakes, can't we all just get along!

 

[TwiceHorn 32077]

5 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

Shelly might be dumb as a stump.  Or a liar.  Or both.

She is a cunt, though, regardless.

Edited May 12, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[Guest Lobo]

24 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Leanderthal gon Leanderthal

"The incident occurred because the male subject was upset about the purchasing limits of meat products," Leander police wrote. "The male subject is seen, in video surveillance, throwing an individual packaged steak and a bag of lettuce at a cashier."

https://www.newsweek.com/texas-grocery-customer-upset-over-coronavirus-restrictions-throws-steak-lettuce-cashier-1503289

Sounds like something that would happen at the Food King, not a Texas HEB.  Man, it did not take long for multi-generational Texas "Gentlemen" to turn into complete, selfish assholes.  

"Fuck your queer ass meat limits, this is 'Murica!"  

[TwiceHorn 32077]

Dallas anecdote time.

Store run today.  Northwest Highway was disturbingly normally trafficked at around noon today.

The store parking lot was disturbingly full.

While there did seem to be a goodly number of people in the store, all were masked that I saw and all were observing social distancing.  I did get through the checkout line pretty fast, so maybe the parking lot and my perception of the fullness of the store was erroneous.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5169]

Sad thing is, if those fuckers would have just kept their shit together and demanded good leadership from their R team, meat shortages wouldn't be a thing.

[conVINCEd 21477]

I got a haircut today.  Piggybacked on my sister having her regular person make a house call.  Feel like a new person.

[conVINCEd 21477]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Dallas anecdote time.

Store run today.  Northwest Highway was disturbingly normally trafficked at around noon today.

The store parking lot was disturbingly full.

While there did seem to be a goodly number of people in the store, all were masked that I saw and all were observing social distancing.  I did get through the checkout line pretty fast, so maybe the parking lot and my perception of the fullness of the store was erroneous.

If you head north the % of people wearing masks will decline in a steady fashion the further you get from downtown.

[tantric superman 4668]

2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Dallas anecdote time.

Store run today.  Northwest Highway was disturbingly normally trafficked at around noon today.

The store parking lot was disturbingly full.

While there did seem to be a goodly number of people in the store, all were masked that I saw and all were observing social distancing.  I did get through the checkout line pretty fast, so maybe the parking lot and my perception of the fullness of the store was erroneous.

Did you just get your regular stuff at Aldi or did you make some time to grab a Lomo Saltado at Latin Deli?

[Zepol87 9341]

^^this is what I saw. I am in Addison and at our trader joes everyone had one on. At Tom Thumb not quite everyone, went to denton to drop something off for a friend and stopped at Kroger the other day and I could probably count on 2 hands the people that had a mask on. Honestly fuck I am over truly caring if you do or not I guess but some of these fucking people look at you like a leper when you have one on. I can see some people not wanting to feel like a weirdo wearing one and that sucks

Edited May 12, 2020 by Zepol87
responding to conVINCEd

[tantric superman 4668]

10 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

I got a haircut today.  Piggybacked on my sister having her regular person make a house call.  Feel like a new person.

Fuck that, I'm rockin the locks as long as I can.

[Message Board User 12405]

 

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

8 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

^^this is what I saw. I am in Addison and at our trader joes everyone had one on. At Tom Thumb not quite everyone, went to denton to drop something off for a friend and stopped at Kroger the other day and I could probably count on 2 hands the people that had a mask on. Honestly fuck I am over truly caring if you do or not I guess but some of these fucking people look at you like a leper when you have one on. I can see some people not wanting to feel like a weirdo wearing one and that sucks

That’s why I stick with liberal bubbles where people are more apt to wear them and ya know, care about the rest of the community. 

[SquishMitten 10497]

22 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Hell, I’m pretty sure I’ve never even argued against treating an undocumented worker that shows up in the ER. 

That's an odd thing to be unsure about. 

[Zepol87 9341]

44 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Fuck that, I'm rockin the locks as long as I can.

 

Same here but I started growing it out before this started and now it is out of control

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

Just now, SquishMitten said:

That's an odd thing to be unsure about. 

I’ve been posting online for 20 years. I’ve been in favor of a strong migrant worker program for that entire time and never (to my recollection) thought that people coming in illegally are morally culpable for doing so, while also maintaining that a country absolutely has the right to enforce its borders, its laws, and extend benefits to only citizens or guests if it so desires. Or people of course who can pay for services. 

That said 20 years is a long time and a lot of tangents so I wouldn’t say with 100% certainty that I never said anything opposite that, though I don’t recall saying it and don’t believe I ever did. 

[Foosters 18279]

Just now, Zepol87 said:

Same here but I started growing it out before this started and now it is out of control

same. i finally shaved the beard, but two weeks ago I kinda looked like Happy Gilmore's caddy

[formermav43 4628]

I got a haircut today too. Feel so much better.

[Longhorn_Fan68 34104]

5 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

Same here but I started growing it out before this started and now it is out of control

amateur

[Continental Op 3934]

3 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Dallas anecdote time.

Store run today.  Northwest Highway was disturbingly normally trafficked at around noon today.

The store parking lot was disturbingly full.

While there did seem to be a goodly number of people in the store, all were masked that I saw and all were observing social distancing.  I did get through the checkout line pretty fast, so maybe the parking lot and my perception of the fullness of the store was erroneous.

If you were going to the store then why did you find the lot "disturbingly full"?  Those people were all going to the store just like you. 

[TwiceHorn 32077]

13 minutes ago, Continental Op said:

If you were going to the store then why did you find the lot "disturbingly full"?  Those people were all going to the store just like you. 

Because prior to the ascendancy of the "muh rights" crowd and imprudent reopening orders, it was less full.

I kind of expected to see a mob scene of unmasked honey boo boos, gun wielding Cletii, and Shelly Luthers in there, but there was not.  Which is why I said that I misunderestimated the impact of the full lot.

Also, the NorthPark parking lot was a lot less full than usual, just another note I left off.

Edited May 12, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[tx 3 putt 78677]

58 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I got a haircut today too. Feel so much better.

Same 

super cuts has it down. Very clean and cautious. 

[Born to Run 6601]

 

 

[Zepol87 9341]

2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

That’s why I stick with liberal bubbles where people are more apt to wear them and ya know, care about the rest of the community. 

Well I just got back from running to the liquor store and stopped at the gas station nearby on montfort. I am walking in to pay cause pay at the pump isn't working and I hear a dude inside raising his voice to someone. I open the door and he is yelling at the clerk who pointed to a sign saying mask must be worn inside all Circle K stores if you are over 10. He starts saying it is illegal and against his rights. I go to this gas station alot and the clerks are good dudes from Jordan. They even told him sir just check out and we understand if you don't agree but it is our policy. He storms out quick and yells "if you were fucking educated you would know better."

Jesus christ dude a fucking mask has you freaking out like this? Then he got in his shitty honda civic and peeled out of the parking lot without a care for the ppl that were walking on the sidewalk. What a fucking douche and if a mask has you this pissed off then please eat a dick 

[TwiceHorn 32077]

2 minutes ago, Zepol87 said:

Well I just got back from running to the liquor store and stopped at the gas station nearby on montfort. I am walking in to pay cause pay at the pump isn't working and I hear a dude inside raising his voice to someone. I open the door and he is yelling at the clerk who pointed to a sign saying mask must be worn inside all Circle K stores if you are over 10. He starts saying it is illegal and against his rights. I go to this gas station alot and the clerks are good dudes from Jordan. They even told him sir just check out and we understand if you don't agree but it is our policy. He storms out quick and yells "if you were fucking educated you would know better."

Jesus christ dude a fucking mask has you freaking out like this? Then he got in his shitty honda civic and peeled out of the parking lot without a care for the ppl that were walking on the sidewalk. What a fucking douche and if a mask has you this pissed off then please eat a dick 

No shirt, no shoes, no mask, no dice.

Eat a dick, some HCQ and wash it down with a lysol/bleach cocktail.  Assbag.

Edited May 12, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[Zepol87 9341]

Man that dude really pissed me off

[justhookit 4206]

5 hours ago, Zepol87 said:

Well I just got back from running to the liquor store and stopped at the gas station nearby on montfort. I am walking in to pay cause pay at the pump isn't working and I hear a dude inside raising his voice to someone. I open the door and he is yelling at the clerk who pointed to a sign saying mask must be worn inside all Circle K stores if you are over 10. He starts saying it is illegal and against his rights. I go to this gas station alot and the clerks are good dudes from Jordan. They even told him sir just check out and we understand if you don't agree but it is our policy. He storms out quick and yells "if you were fucking educated you would know better."

Jesus christ dude a fucking mask has you freaking out like this? Then he got in his shitty honda civic and peeled out of the parking lot without a care for the ppl that were walking on the sidewalk. What a fucking douche and if a mask has you this pissed off then please eat a dick 

Maybe he was just pissed because pay at the pump wasn’t working. That pisses me right the fuck off too. Especially these days. Or it would, but I think I am on day 87 of the same tank of gas.

Edited May 13, 2020 by justhookit

[Zepol87 9341]

This spot did some big remodeling and was closed for the past 2 weeks I'll chalk it up to that. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

I kind of expected to see a mob scene of unmasked honey boo boos, gun wielding Cletii, and Shelly Luthers in there, but there was not.  Which is why I said that I misunderestimated the impact of the full lot.

Just head up to Frisco and McKinney, the unofficial Bubbas and Karens capital of North Texas.