Texas Re-Opening Announced

[TwiceHorn 32073]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Well, at this point, he very well may get sued.  Because that is contrary to Chapter 418 of the Government Code.  He can't supersede local control on this.

I have scanned Chapter 418, it seems like it's silent on the issue?

[6th Street 6687]

13 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

No. And it isn’t worth it for the restaurant to hire more staff back either. Max 25% capacity and that’s hoping it even gets to capacity which I doubt it will for a while. They’re basically going to use the same staff that have been working in take out the last several weeks. 

Right I mean less tips and fewer waitstaff. Might not even be financially feasible to re-open given the high fixed costs

[Ghost of LL 15699]

15 minutes ago, CooterBrown said:

I saw Pinthouse Pizza is prepping to reopen. How is a place like that going to control capacity? Last thing you want is a giant crowd hanging around outside waiting to get in.

I wonder if it makes sense for every restaurant to go reservations only to manage occupancy.

I may get a growler to go, but that's about it.

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I have scanned Chapter 418, it seems like it's silent on the issue?

See Tex. Gov't Code 418.108.

8 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Colorado started a phased reopening yesterday.  I really don't have a problem with it.  The hospital system is not overwhelmed, so it makes sense to ease some restrictions.  The only thing that I don't like is not having adequate testing in place which should have been doable by now with notice since January.  It is going to take ~3 weeks to see an uptick in either hospitalizations or deaths in a shitty delayed feedback loop to know if we've gone too far.  I'd much rather have the people getting back to business being tested regularly to see the effects of change prior to those people having to exhibit serious illness and potentially spreading asymptomatic infections previous to that.

My wife and I have decided we're going to let others be the guinea pigs for the next 3 weeks.  We'll sit tight and see what the numbers show then.  If there has not been a significant uptick in hospitalizations/deaths by then, we'll see about crawling out of our cave a bit more.

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 hour ago, Continental Op said:

Well yeah but if those business CAN be open then their insurers probably don't have to pay business interruption claims and the state won't have to pay anyone who says "Yeah fuck that!" when they get called back to sling cocktails for any swinging dick off the street, which is the entire point of this exercise. 

This is unfortunately the answer. Abbott has felt enough pressure to make it clear the lives of the millions of service industry and medical personnel in the state aren't worth having to pay out to protect. Now, instead of one or two restaurant personnel being able to place packages of food in someone's trunk or on a table for a prepaid customer to pick up with no contact you'll have tons of employees having to be face to face serving customers. And of course no one will be wearing masks because restaurants/businesses won't allow their employees to wear them because it'll give off a negative vibe/appearance. 

Hundreds of thousands of the people with no employer provided health insurance are about to be exposed to the virus by idiots who think everything is cool to do in the beginning phases of a global pandemic. And of course when they turn up at the hospital with no insurance they'll be turned away or sent to get inferior care. 

The sadistic American politicians and corporations usually cause the death of tons of other countries' people for profit. Now we're going to see them do it to a lot of American citizens including health care workers in the name of profit. 

If I'm hospital personnel I seriously consider striking if this goes in effect. They're going to be sacrificial lambs in this.

[Goredho 17650]

10 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Also, why is that trumpkin up there so angry?

Not sure who you mean

[TwiceHorn 32073]

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

 

See Tex. Gov't Code 418.108.

 

Aha, buried there at the end.

Wait a minute.  That appears to only apply to fireworks bans.  WTF?

Edited April 27, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[Pancho 46277]

53 minutes ago, Caddox said:

Perhaps yall shouldve nominated someone besides a brain decayed child predator and you might have a chance. 

 

[Ghost of LL 15699]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Aha, buried there at the end.

Wait a minute.  That appears to only apply to fireworks bans.  WTF?

Fireworks?

It's in 418.108(g): "The county judge or the mayor of a municipality may control ingress to and egress from a disaster area under the jurisdiction and authority of the county judge or mayor and control the movement of persons and the occupancy of premises in that area."

[Nivek 17406]

Retail, restaurants, movie theaters and malls can re-open at 25% occupancy levels.

Will those kinds of businesses be profitable at 25% capacity?  Seems like they'd be better off staying closed.  I guess we'll find out.

 

This is why we need a businessman in the white hous.... oh fuck me.

[SubliminalHorn 7008]

26 minutes ago, Caddox said:

Get back to me after Biden drools on himself during the debates. That’s if you pussies don’t try to use the virus as an excuse not to hold them. 

Oh were you hoping to see a level headed, statesman like debate about policies occurring, possibly using the debates to influence your opinion going into Election Day?

[Dbeasy 15569]

We have passed the first wave here in Texas without a big impact. Here the vastly bigger impact has been from the government actions fighting it.
Would you dispute that?

Nope. My post had nothing to do with that. It was purely a reaction to your statement that you don’t think 50k+ deaths is a big deal. In your words, you think that is underwhelming.

[DigglerontheHoof 21550]

29 minutes ago, Caddox said:

Get back to me after Biden drools on himself during the debates. That’s if you pussies don’t try to use the virus as an excuse not to hold them. 

JFC, you brain-dead twat, have you not been watching trump embarrass himself on a daily basis the last 3+ years?   That's not to mention the corruption, hubris, narcissism, nepotism, incompetence, abuse of power, etc. 

[bad_teammate 13496]

16 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Welcome to Costco, I love you.

[TwiceHorn 32073]

43 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Fireworks?

It's in 418.108(g): "The county judge or the mayor of a municipality may control ingress to and egress from a disaster area under the jurisdiction and authority of the county judge or mayor and control the movement of persons and the occupancy of premises in that area."

I was looking at sub (i), which speaks of "more restrictive measures."

Also, the governor has the same power as (g) in 418.018.  It was my impression from the first couple of scans that they had parallel/overlapping powers and no means of resolving conflict.

I think we are in a structural penumbra, here.

Edited April 27, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[Beau Vine 55861]

1 hour ago, 4th&Five said:

more cases won't stop the depression.  people aren't going to go out, they aren't getting on planes, people won't schedule conferences or concerts and we won't have large gatherings as long as we have case numbers going up and people still can't get tests.  we've been saying this shit for 2 months but you dumb fuckers still can't understand it.  enjoy your shitty tex mex though.

We're opening malls and movie theaters!!!  The economy will arise!!!

[4th&Five 41986]

The other thing about this is it just doesn’t sound enjoyable to go to a restaurant and sit down right now. I’d rather get takeout or cook for myself than sit and be reminded how far from normal we are. 

 

[Trey3216 15452]

44 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Will those kinds of businesses be profitable at 25% capacity?  Seems like they'd be better off staying closed.  I guess we'll find out.

 

This is why we need a businessman in the white hous.... oh fuck me.

You act as if they are all just going to open up.   It’s like the “right vs ability” argument.  
 

right now, they will have the opportunity to re-open at a lower capacity.   That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will have the ability, as some places won’t even be able to cover their fixed cost at 25% capacity.  
 

But whine away as if we’ll be dropping ‘Rona packets onto every table.  
 

im more worried about the hospitals that will close if we stay at status quo much longer, which seems like a far greater detriment to public health.   
 

ahhh, fuck it.  Just flame away 

[Grade of D as in David 13255]

2 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

There will be an inevitable spike in a few weeks/months and we’ll be right back at square one. All because we have no way of fully testing and tracking allowing us to quarantine and isolate. These past 4-6 weeks have been for naught. 

"No one could see this coming"

[Wanker Bob 379]

6 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

The other thing about this is it just doesn’t sound enjoyable to go to a restaurant and sit down right now. I’d rather get takeout or cook for myself than sit and be reminded how far from normal we are. 

 

It'll be trumpers and dumbasses eating in restaurants for the foreseeable future. There prospect of those morons screwing themselves over to help the economy would be hilarious to me if they weren't also causing a lot of sickness and death to poor workers being forced to work in hazardous conditions to serve them. 

[Nivek 17406]

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You act as if they are all just going to open up.   It’s like the “right vs ability” argument.  
 

right now, they will have the opportunity to re-open at a lower capacity.   That doesn’t necessarily mean that they will have the ability, as some places won’t even be able to cover their fixed cost at 25% capacity.  
 

But whine away as if we’ll be dropping ‘Rona packets onto every table.  
 

im more worried about the hospitals that will close if we stay at status quo much longer, which seems like a far greater detriment to public health.   
 

ahhh, fuck it.  Just flame away 

No one said that.  You just argued with yourself and lost.  Quite an amazing feat.    

[TXSG8R 3362]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

Easy, you close shit back down.

As far as your concern about DFW or Houston becoming something like NYC, I think that is highly unlikely. Whether that’s due to weather, or lower mass transit utilization, or just lower population density, I hope we find out soon. 

With our limited testing by the time we realize things are going bad, you’re 3 weeks behind a spike. 

[Nivek 17406]

Biden not saying a word and drooling, or rubbing shit on his face would be an improvement over a shithead who encourages people to prescribe themselves dangerous medicine and inject themselves with bleach.  

[Trey3216 15452]

4 minutes ago, Nivek said:

No one said that.  You just argued with yourself and lost.  Quite an amazing feat.    

Many arguing about “opening back up” assume that all businesses are just going to open back up.  Some are going to weigh the economics of lower capacity, some are going to act like Sanchez and go even if the economics don’t work. 
 

so it’s a simpleton argument to say “we’re opening back up, we’re all gonna die!!!!”  Just as it’s a simpleton argument that everything’s gonna be better because we’re opening back up.  
 

nice try, Nivek.  

Edited April 27, 2020 by Trey3216

[gmr548 16691]

3 hours ago, GRHorn said:

 The DT types will be on the patio at Chuy's with my family on Friday afternoon.

 

I've seen and dished out some trash takes on this site, but Chuy's being at the top of the "restaurants to hit" list is in a class all its own. 

[RDCanecutter 26873]

3 hours ago, DaysOff said:

I'd go to a movie at 25 percent capacity if I was in the last row so nobody breathes down on me. Unfortunately everything Hollywood produces is shit, so no need.

I'd go to a movie with 100% capacity if none of those motherfuckers would pull out their phone to check Facebook halfway though. Gotdam, just shine a flashlight in my face you fucking inbred tech-addicted gutter monkey.

[Macanudo 13314]

[Otter in Animal House]We.... Are gonna die[\Otter in Animal House]

[Blotto 24011]

Well one things is for sure, we'll soon get some clarity on whether there is a chance in hell of having college football next fall. 

[RDCanecutter 26873]

1 minute ago, Blotto said:

Well one things is for sure, we'll soon get some clarity on whether there is a chance in hell of having college football next fall. 

All teams adopt the Spread.

[gmr548 16691]

2 hours ago, Caddox said:

Don't bother. To them the only thing that matters is orange man bad. Theyre always going to play the righteous card no matter what the numbers are. In reality, they watch the news with glee at the thought of this thing costing Trump the election. The last thing in the world they want is for this economy to get back on track no matter who it hurts. 

You know how I know you know nothing about the economy?

[Wanker Bob 379]

16 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

With our limited testing by the time we realize things are going bad, you’re 3 weeks behind a spike. 

That's the rub. Opening things back up would be fine if we had tested enough to know where we are and had enough available testing to real time know how it's impacting employees in service industry places (and guaranteed covered health care for all service industry employees during the pandemic). That would be a prudent way to see how we can handle an uptick in cases. 

With the complete lack of available testing for a population of 350 million by the time we see any bad indicators even if we shut it down immediately we'd be in for potentially major spikes for the coming weeks. Doing this blind like this is just flat out irresponsible and if the gamble is wrong will hospitalized and kill at least tens or hundreds of thousands. 

Also, who is going to regulate this 25 Percent capacity number? Who's going to be checking and doing the math? What will happen to violators? 

I'm thinking nobody will be checking and it'll be wild west out there with rogue places going full capacity from the jump. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[TXSG8R 3362]

3 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

That's the rub. Opening things back up would be fine if we had tested enough to know where we are and had enough available testing to real time know how it's impacting employees in service industry places (and guaranteed covered health care for all service industry employees during the pandemic). That would be a prudent way to see how we can handle an uptick in cases. 

With the complete lack of available testing for a population of 350 million by the time we see any bad indicators even if we shut it down immediately we'd be in for potentially major spikes for the coming weeks. Doing this blind like this is just flat out irresponsible and if the gamble is wrong will hospitalized and kill at least tens or hundreds of thousands. 

Also, who is going to regulate this 25 Percent capacity number? Who's going to be checking and doing the math? What will happen to violators? 

I'm thinking nobody will be checking and it'll be wild west out there with rogue places going full capacity from the jump. 

Yep.  GRHorn is technically accurate that it’s easy to shut back down, but he’s glossing over the impact.  With testing up front, limited opening makes sense. With limited testing, it’s Russian roulette. You’re hoping for a good outcome instead of creating one. 

[Skipper 6411]

It seems to me at a high level there are 2 sets of competing beliefs.

1.  The goal should be for as few as possible to become infected until there is an effective vaccine or treatment.

2.  The goal is to 'flatten the curve' to avoid a collapse on our healthcare system and to ensure that anyone that gets a serious case has access to the best possible healthcare at that time.

I just don't think #1 is realistic for numerous reasons (no guarantee we ever have a 100% effective vaccine or treatment, impact on economy, people won't comply, etc. etc.).

I also think it's more likely we get to herd immunity before we get to a vaccine.  Maybe I'm wrong but I have yet to see a serious expert anticipate anything closer to 18 months which means we're still over a year away.

So where does that put us now?  The reality is in Dallas at least the curve has been flattened. Testing data not all that reliable IMO (getting better) but hospitalization data is .  The undisputed fact here is that peak COVID hospitalization in Dallas was over 3 weeks ago and it has been trending down significantly ever since.  Even at that time Dallas wasn't close to hitting max capacity.  So from a pure community spread perspective, now is as good of time as ever to begin a phasing in process.   

I completely agree we'll need better testing and contact tracing to completely manage this.  Guess what, we are almost certainly never going to get it.   Full Stop.   I don't know why anyone would have confidence we are weeks or months away from elite contact tracing technology.  Maybe we'll be ready for the next pandemic, who knows.  

But we have enough testing and data to monitor COVID Hospitalizations.  And if necessary can shut things down again if there is evidence of exponential growth.  Hell, I would even propose a "planned" 2 week shut down sometime in July that can always be lifted (maybe better for businesses and consumers that way?)

While I think another shutdown is likely necessary I certainly can't say that definitively.  The reality is even with 'opening,' many private businesses will choose not to open and many won't venture out any more than they already are.  So how do we know that the significantly reduced contacts in the aggregate won't be enough to keep the curve below the line?  We don't.

 

For those that are completely against opening back up May 1.  What exactly is your plan?  Shelter in place through next summer hoping for a vaccine in fall of 2021?  Good luck with that.

[mdmost 43955]

Alamo Drafthouse already said they aren't reopening this weekend. They know it's not worth it to run movies that have already been out to 25%, if that, of their normal audience. 

[Trey3216 15452]

11 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

That's the rub. Opening things back up would be fine if we had tested enough to know where we are and had enough available testing to real time know how it's impacting employees in service industry places (and guaranteed covered health care for all service industry employees during the pandemic). That would be a prudent way to see how we can handle an uptick in cases. 

With the complete lack of available testing for a population of 350 million by the time we see any bad indicators even if we shut it down immediately we'd be in for potentially major spikes for the coming weeks. Doing this blind like this is just flat out irresponsible and if the gamble is wrong will hospitalized and kill at least tens or hundreds of thousands. 

Also, who is going to regulate this 25 Percent capacity number? Who's going to be checking and doing the math? What will happen to violators? 

I'm thinking nobody will be checking and it'll be wild west out there with rogue places going full capacity from the jump. 

I have a feeling a very limited amount of restaurants will be opening until the 18th. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Trey3216

[Nivek 17406]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

Many arguing about “opening back up” assumes that all businesses are just going to open back up.  Some are going to weigh the economics of lower capacity, some are going to act like Sanchez and go even if the economics don’t work. 
 

so it’s a simpleton argument to say “we’re opening back up, we’re all gonna die!!!!”  Just as it’s a simpleton argument that everything’s gonna be better because we’re opening back up.  
 

nice try, Nivek.  

You ever watch Benny Hill's skit on the word assume?  Where did someone suggest all businesses would open up at 100%?  You committed a classic fallacy that many people fall for, arguing against something that was never said in the bold letters above.   

Maybe if we had a competent administration we could trust that experts have used all available knowledge on outbreaks, ran simulations, and determined that opening up at 25% capacity would allow for a semblance of normalcy to return while maintaining minimal risk.  Maybe you trust a republican governor who declared that WWE is an essential service,  the other republican governor who did not understand incubation time,  or the idiotic president who has no idea if it is a virus, bacteria, protozoa and doubted that anyone else in the world knew it because he didn't.    But I kind of doubt that he and his advisors (including a labradoodle breeder, jared kushner, or invanka, or even the CDC) have the mental capacity, experience or judgement to make that call.    I also have not heard from Abbot on his administration's reports which suggest this is the best course of action.   

The previous warnings by the CDC(in conjunction with FEMA) linked below carries dire warnings about the actions we are currently taking.  What changed?

From WAPO

The plan also carries this warning: “Models indicate 30-day shelter in place followed by 180 day lifting of all mitigation results in large rebound curve — some level of mitigation will be needed until vaccines or broad community immunity is achieved for recovering communities.”

 

The document says reopening communities in this phased approach “will entail a significant risk of resurgence of the virus.” Any reopening must meet four conditions:

• Incidence of infection is “genuinely low.”
• A “well functioning” monitoring system capable of “promptly detecting any increase in incidence” of infection.
• A public health system that is “reacting robustly” to all cases of covid-19 and has surge capacity to react to an increase in cases.
• A health system that has enough inpatient beds and staffing to rapidly scale up and deal with a surge in cases.

[Biff Tannen 46151]

8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Hell, I would even propose a "planned" 2 week shut down sometime in July that can always be lifted (maybe better for businesses and consumers that way?)

I think this is actually a really good idea. 

[Skipper 6411]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

I think this is actually a really good idea. 

Yeah, considering no matter what the official 'regulations' are there are going to be a shitload of contacts over July 4th weekend, I was thinking we could just plan a 2 week shutdown beginning Monday July 6th.

[Trey3216 15452]

5 minutes ago, Nivek said:

You ever watch Benny Hill's skit on the word assume?  Where did someone suggest all businesses would open up at 100%?  You committed a classic fallacy that many people fall for, arguing against something that was never said in the bold letters above.   

Maybe if we had a competent administration we could trust that experts have used all available knowledge on outbreaks, ran simulations, and determined that opening up at 25% capacity would allow for a semblance of normalcy to return while maintaining minimal risk.  Maybe you trust a republican governor who declared that WWE is an essential service,  the other republican governor who did not understand incubation time,  or the idiotic president who has no idea if it is a virus, bacteria, protozoa and doubted that anyone else in the world knew it because he didn't.    But I kind of doubt that he and his advisors (including a labradoodle breeder, jared kushner, or invanka, or even the CDC) have the mental capacity, experience or judgement to make that call.    I also have not heard from Abbot on his administration's reports which suggest this is the best course of action.   

The previous warnings by the CDC(in conjunction with FEMA) linked below carries dire warnings about the actions we are currently taking.  What changed?

From WAPO

The plan also carries this warning: “Models indicate 30-day shelter in place followed by 180 day lifting of all mitigation results in large rebound curve — some level of mitigation will be needed until vaccines or broad community immunity is achieved for recovering communities.”

 

The document says reopening communities in this phased approach “will entail a significant risk of resurgence of the virus.” Any reopening must meet four conditions:

• Incidence of infection is “genuinely low.”
• A “well functioning” monitoring system capable of “promptly detecting any increase in incidence” of infection.
• A public health system that is “reacting robustly” to all cases of covid-19 and has surge capacity to react to an increase in cases.
• A health system that has enough inpatient beds and staffing to rapidly scale up and deal with a surge in cases.

1) Where in the directive today did it say Texas was lifting all mitigation results?? 

2) At least 3 and arguably 4 of the conditions of the phased in reopening conditions in that article are currently the case in Texas   
 

And if you read the 10 dozen comments before mine, as well as peruse other threads on this forum and on this site, you know damn straight well that what I’m saying is has been outright stated or at least implied by quite a few of the same voices: over and over and fucking over again.   No fallacy 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

I believe the error is too much focus on re-opening and not enough on containing the virus and public safety.   People are going to need to feel safe and any ambitious re-opening agenda needs to make that the focal point. 

[gmr548 16691]

15 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It seems to me at a high level there are 2 sets of competing beliefs.

1.  The goal should be for as few as possible to become infected until there is an effective vaccine or treatment.

2.  The goal is to 'flatten the curve' to avoid a collapse on our healthcare system and to ensure that anyone that gets a serious case has access to the best possible healthcare at that time.

I just don't think #1 is realistic for numerous reasons (no guarantee we ever have a 100% effective vaccine or treatment, impact on economy, people won't comply, etc. etc.).

I also think it's more likely we get to herd immunity before we get to a vaccine.  Maybe I'm wrong but I have yet to see a serious expert anticipate anything closer to 18 months which means we're still over a year away.

So where does that put us now?  The reality is in Dallas at least the curve has been flattened. Testing data not all that reliable IMO (getting better) but hospitalization data is .  The undisputed fact here is that peak COVID hospitalization in Dallas was over 3 weeks ago and it has been trending down significantly ever since.  Even at that time Dallas wasn't close to hitting max capacity.  So from a pure community spread perspective, now is as good of time as ever to begin a phasing in process.   

I completely agree we'll need better testing and contact tracing to completely manage this.  Guess what, we are almost certainly never going to get it.   Full Stop.   I don't know why anyone would have confidence we are weeks or months away from elite contact tracing technology.  Maybe we'll be ready for the next pandemic, who knows.  

But we have enough testing and data to monitor COVID Hospitalizations.  And if necessary can shut things down again if there is evidence of exponential growth.  Hell, I would even propose a "planned" 2 week shut down sometime in July that can always be lifted (maybe better for businesses and consumers that way?)

While I think another shutdown is likely necessary I certainly can't say that definitively.  The reality is even with 'opening,' many private businesses will choose not to open and many won't venture out any more than they already are.  So how do we know that the significantly reduced contacts in the aggregate won't be enough to keep the curve below the line?  We don't.

 

For those that are completely against opening back up May 1.  What exactly is your plan?  Shelter in place through next summer hoping for a vaccine in fall of 2021?  Good luck with that.

I don't think 1 and 2 are competing. Flattening the curve both does what you said, and by slowing the spread, reduces the total number of infections before a vaccine is rolled out.

I'm not against opening up inherently. I agree that, based on available info in Texas, the situation is manageable and it's appropriate to think about lifting restrictions. What gets me is the fact that we're still woefully unprepared to contain the spread. You mentioned hospitalizations - that's great, but that's a lagging indicator. By the time hospitalizations start trending up enough to get attention, it's already widespread. 

I don't know what your threshold for "elite" testing and contact tracing is, but we absolutely could scale up our abilities in both categories to the point where it'd be adequate. We have chosen not to make that investment. So I agree we won't - but to say we can't is excuse making.

[Trey3216 15452]

6 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I believe the error is too much focus on re-opening and not enough on containing the virus and public safety.   People are going to need to feel safe and any ambitious re-opening agenda needs to make that the focal point. 

I don’t think the efforts are mutually exclusive, nor do I think the terminology is correct.  Containing and mitigating are different.  Mitigating the virus is the goal. They are never really contained. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Trey3216

[Wanker Bob 379]

20 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I have a feeling a very limited amount of restaurants will be opening until the 18th. 

corporations are 100% about bottom line and care zero about their own employees health or the health of their customers. The role of government is to properly regulate and rein in corporate actions to get a balance between profit and safety. 

Leaving the safety of the community up to businesses is insane. Just more evidence of gutless politicians serving their corporate masters. 

[gmr548 16691]

4 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I believe the error is too much focus on re-opening and not enough on containing the virus and public safety.   People are going to need to feel safe and any ambitious re-opening agenda needs to make that the focal point. 

Ding ding ding. The economy isn't going to rebound just because some yet to be determined portion of the population is now going to hit up quarter-full restaurants twice a week. We are still flying blind and that could very well end up getting worse, unless we straight up just get lucky in a way we can't see coming right now.

[smoky 842]

1 minute ago, Wanker Bob said:

corporations are 100% about bottom line and care zero about their own employees health or the health of their customers. The role of government is to properly regulate and rein in corporate actions to get a balance between profit and safety. 

Leaving the safety of the community up to businesses is insane. Just more evidence of gutless politicians serving their corporate masters. 

Arent lawsuits factors of the bottom line?

[Trey3216 15452]

2 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

corporations are 100% about bottom line and care zero about their own employees health or the health of their customers. The role of government is to properly regulate and rein in corporate actions to get a balance between profit and safety. 

Leaving the safety of the community up to businesses is insane. Just more evidence of gutless politicians serving their corporate masters. 

And if you know anything about the restaurant business, you’d know that operating at 25% capacity for most of them will be a mathematical no-go 

[TXSG8R 3362]

4 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It seems to me at a high level there are 2 sets of competing beliefs.

1.  The goal should be for as few as possible to become infected until there is an effective vaccine or treatment.

2.  The goal is to 'flatten the curve' to avoid a collapse on our healthcare system and to ensure that anyone that gets a serious case has access to the best possible healthcare at that time.

I just don't think #1 is realistic for numerous reasons (no guarantee we ever have a 100% effective vaccine or treatment, impact on economy, people won't comply, etc. etc.).

I also think it's more likely we get to herd immunity before we get to a vaccine.  Maybe I'm wrong but I have yet to see a serious expert anticipate anything closer to 18 months which means we're still over a year away.

So where does that put us now?  The reality is in Dallas at least the curve has been flattened. Testing data not all that reliable IMO (getting better) but hospitalization data is .  The undisputed fact here is that peak COVID hospitalization in Dallas was over 3 weeks ago and it has been trending down significantly ever since.  Even at that time Dallas wasn't close to hitting max capacity.  So from a pure community spread perspective, now is as good of time as ever to begin a phasing in process.   

I completely agree we'll need better testing and contact tracing to completely manage this.  Guess what, we are almost certainly never going to get it.   Full Stop.   I don't know why anyone would have confidence we are weeks or months away from elite contact tracing technology.  Maybe we'll be ready for the next pandemic, who knows.  

But we have enough testing and data to monitor COVID Hospitalizations.  And if necessary can shut things down again if there is evidence of exponential growth.  Hell, I would even propose a "planned" 2 week shut down sometime in July that can always be lifted (maybe better for businesses and consumers that way?)

While I think another shutdown is likely necessary I certainly can't say that definitively.  The reality is even with 'opening,' many private businesses will choose not to open and many won't venture out any more than they already are.  So how do we know that the significantly reduced contacts in the aggregate won't be enough to keep the curve below the line?  We don't.

 

For those that are completely against opening back up May 1.  What exactly is your plan?  Shelter in place through next summer hoping for a vaccine in fall of 2021?  Good luck with that.

the biggest flaw in your plan is we don’t even know if herd immunity is possible. Is this the mumps, or is this the flu where a new strain is coming next season that our immunity is relatively worthless against?  The other small problem with your idea is tens of thousands, possibly hundreds of thousands dead while we roll the dice on warm weather, herd immunity, . The former is more in line with the mortality rate, the latter is entirely possible if we overwhelm our medical capacity. 

We absolutely should have the ability to produce the testing necessary to protect our urban centers. Testing should be scaled to the community. Higher population density, higher testing. Higher risk population, higher testing. Small town Iowa, testing upon symptoms. As we continue to ramp testing, keep working down in a logical order to keep expanding coverage in line with risk  

I think opening without testing and tracing is flawed from the jump, wether that’s May 1st or July 1st. Tracing can lag behind testing, but having neither is a bad idea. I also understand that none of our opinions make any difference, so all I can do is manage my own risk relative to what my community is doing. As more shit opens, I’ll be out and about even less. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

3 hours ago, Hookah Horns said:

Underwhelming. Wow. 

Dude is either a total trump troll or total trump psycho. I’m going with the former. 

[Bama Chick 28596]

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

7 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I don’t think the efforts are mutually exclusive, nor do I think the terminology is correct.  Containing and mitigating are different.  Mitigating the virus is the goal. They are never really contained. 

The reason we are doing all this lockdown stuff is to slow the spread and put us in a good position to PREVENT the virus from taking off again. We still have a nation wide mask and Lysol shortage and we are #1 in coronavirus cases and deaths.  I dunno Biff, perhaps holding off on the Astroworld reunion party is the way to go.

[JimmyJames 12271]

2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I may get a growler to go, but that's about it.

See Tex. Gov't Code 418.108.

Interesting point. The governor seems to just assume his authority on this matter overrides the cities and local governments. I’m not sure he is right. Maybe he is but I’d like to see the law that says so. Texas can have its strange idiosyncratic laws.