Texas Re-Opening Announced

[Biff Tannen 46164]

[gmr548 16697]

In Dallas it's called the I30 rule. Nothing new 

Yeah I'm at the point where it would have to be a report that the sites aren't disproportionately located in white neighborhoods to surprise me.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Biff Tannen 46164]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

*Noble

[Pescado_Rojo 19587]

On 5/28/2020 at 1:32 PM, Covri said:

I think I’ll keep staying at home if this is what I get to see going out lol.

 

[SubliminalHorn 7009]

Decided to go on a target run yesterday here in Fort Worth. I saw the parking lot was super full so I decided to drive by the front to assess the mask usage. I saw maybe 2-3 people masked. I thought to myself, nope!, and kept driving. I’ll go sometime in the middle of the week when it’s less busy. Judging by how packed patios are and with how no one is wearing masks, this pandemic is over!

[Brisketexan 106890]

Yesterday, for the first time since the pandemic started, I ventured to the N. Lamar HEB -- the one I love because it's a United Nations.  People of every race and ethnicity, all kinds of cool stuff you don't find at the "nice neighborhood" HEBs, fresh tortillas...the good stuff.  The demographic is definitely working-class, lower socioeconomic level.  So, I was braced for seeing not much facemask usage.

Surprised I was.  Probably better than 90% usage.  Sure some folks weren't wearing them right.  But what was interesting was every guy who looked like a "working man" (work clothes etc.) was wearing a mask, and didn't even move like it bugged them.  Because yep, for many of the hard jobs we expect these folks to do, facemasks and dust masks are a regular part of the gear.  It was good to be back in that store, and to see people doing well.

And, I got me some fresh tortillas for me and a pack for my parents (who are super vulnerable and mostly remain in home or very close to it).

[Anastasis 23717]

You mean the "Rundberg HEB". 

[Brisketexan 106890]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

You mean the "Rundberg HEB". 

Dude, I didn't want to scare off ALL of the white folks.

[Anastasis 23717]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude, I didn't want to scare off ALL of the white folks.

Ah, I see.  Trying to confuse them with a Central Market side arm.  Pyramid stacks of oranges are very reassuring. 

[Anastasis 23717]

BTW guys.  Texas appears to be doing pretty damn OK with re-opening so far.  I know that our friends from other southern states would be here dropping tweets and twats if the daily counts looked like shit, but they don't so far. We need to do better with some health behaviors (wear a mask dumbasses), but the world is not ending. 

 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Anastasis

[TexArcher 39070]

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

BTW guys.  Texas appears to be doing pretty damn OK with re-opening so far.  I know that our friends from other southern states would be here dropping tweets and twats if the daily counts looked like shit, but they don't so far. We need to do better with some health behaviors (wear a mask dumbasses), but the world is not ending. 

 

What do you think is good about these graphs?

Because to me it looks like the last few days have seen a spike in new cases and new fatalities about 10-14 days after the partial reopen, which is to be expected when you reopen too soon.  Where is the part where we flattened the curve then had declining cases for two weeks, which the doctors recommended before reopening?

 

  

Edited May 31, 2020 by TexArcher

[Anastasis 23717]

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

What do you think is good about these graphs?

Because to me it looks like the last few days have seen a spike in new cases and new fatalities, which is to be expected when you reopen, even partially, too soon.  Where is the part where we flattened the curve then had declining cases for two weeks, which the doctors recommended before reopening?  

The slope of both cases and fatalities has held consistent so far over April and May.  Rolling average appears to hold steady. I don't see a spike over the last few days, I see a recurring weekly seasonality, and a rate that appears consistent whether we are locked down or not. We are four weeks into reopening and haven't seen an upward inflection in either curve, but especially the fatalities curve as that is what really matters. We need more data points, but the sky does not appear to be falling after reopening. If we can put another 30 days in the books with similar data that will be a good thing.

  

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

BTW guys.  Texas appears to be doing pretty damn OK with re-opening so far.  I know that our friends from other southern states would be here dropping tweets and twats if the daily counts looked like shit, but they don't so far. We need to do better with some health behaviors (wear a mask dumbasses), but the world is not ending. 

 

Those graphs aren't taking into account all the covid deaths Texas is hiding as "pneumonia"

Quote

I'm not an expert on government reporting so if I'm making a mistake here let me know but that 2nd CDC link put has pneumonia Texas deaths at 4976 through May 29

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

while this one I found (click download data csv at bottom) has the total YEARLY pneumonia deaths for Texas as:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3516

2017 - 2954

2016 - 2860

2015 - 3214

2014 - 3452

That's a 5 yr average of 3199/yr for the entire year and we've already by May 29th hit 4976? I know it slows in the summer but it picks back up again in Oct-Dec and to be 1777 deaths over the yearly average by May 29 means this state is probably underreporting CV deaths by at least 1900 - 2k to this point, right? 

 

[Anastasis 23717]

29 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Those graphs aren't taking into account all the covid deaths Texas is hiding as "pneumonia"

OK. Let's assume there is a systematic under attribution in the state of Texas. Do you believe that the extent of that systematic bias somehow differed during the period 1 April-30 April vs 1 May-31 May? Because unless you believe that there is a differential bias, it is not relevant to understanding the impact of the reopening policy on the outcomes.  

Edited May 31, 2020 by Anastasis

[Wanker Bob 379]

Just now, Anastasis said:

OK. Let's assume there is a systematic under attribution in the state of Texas. Do you believe that that the extent of that systematic bias somehow differed during the period 1 April-30 April vs 1 May-31 May? Because unless you believe that there is a differential bias, it is not relevant to understanding the impact of the reopening policy on the outcomes.  

From the figures there's vast amounts of underreporting of CV deaths which means the virus is far deadlier than the official numbers are letting on. That's a huge problem. People are making decisions based on numbers that are faulty and give a false sense of security. 

 I don't know how much of this can be attributed to nefarious intent on the local or state level. I tend to believe this is a part of the testing suppression taken by the trump administration and republicans. From what I can tell the official numbers come from coroner reports and with the lack of testing for the living virtually zero if not actually zero tests are being used on the dead that were never tested while alive. Therefore due to lack of testing these dead are being classified as "pneumonia" and probably other causes by coroner's offices. The numbers for pneumonia are startling alone but so far I've not found the data for "unknown causes" or other similar categories to compare to prior years data. 

I think the masses of dead never making it to a hospital and never getting tested are the covered up casualties of this virus no one is acknowledging. 

[Anastasis 23717]

Just now, Wanker Bob said:

From the figures there's vast amounts of underreporting of CV deaths which means the virus is far deadlier than the official numbers are letting on. That's a huge problem. People are making decisions based on numbers that are faulty and give a false sense of security. 

 I don't know how much of this can be attributed to nefarious intent on the local or state level. I tend to believe this is a part of the testing suppression taken by the trump administration and republicans. From what I can tell the official numbers come from coroner reports and with the lack of testing for the living virtually zero if not actually zero tests are being used on the dead that were never tested while alive. Therefore due to lack of testing these dead are being classified as "pneumonia" and probably other causes by coroner's offices. The numbers for pneumonia are startling alone but so far I've not found the data for "unknown causes" or other similar categories to compare to prior years data. 

I think the masses of dead never making it to a hospital and never getting tested are the covered up casualties of this virus no one is acknowledging. 

None of that is relevant to examination of the relationship between re-opening and the outcomes, but if it makes you feel better to type it out I hope that it works. 

[TexArcher 39070]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

The slope of both cases and fatalities has held consistent so far over April and May.  Rolling average appears to hold steady. I don't see a spike over the last few days, I see a recurring weekly seasonality, and a rate that appears consistent whether we are locked down or not. We are four weeks into reopening and haven't seen an upward inflection in either curve, but especially the fatalities curve as that is what really matters. We need more data points, but the sky does not appear to be falling after reopening. If we can put another 30 days in the books with similar data that will be a good thing.

  

Look at the bars at the bottom for new cases and new deaths.  There's a sharp uptick in both for the previous 4 days.

And why exactly is the cumulative line "holding steady" a good thing?  I mean, yay, we can all get haircuts again, but if we're adding dead bodies to the pile at roughly the same rate, what was the point of all of this?  A month ago, the national projection was 60k dead by August, and here we are on 5/31 with 105k dead, and if the cumulative line continues like this, it'll be damn near 200k dead by 8/31.  There's nothing to celebrate in those charts.  That is a state that is dumb enough to ignore its doctors.

You're basically celebrating the fact that reopening hasn't made it worse.  The whole point of the quarantine was to make it better.  But that can't happen when you wait too long to quarantine then don't do it long enough.

Edited May 31, 2020 by TexArcher

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

None of that is relevant to examination of the relationship between re-opening and the outcomes, but if it makes you feel better to type it out I hope that it works. 

How is it not relevant? Potentially more than double the amount of people are dying from the virus in Texas than are being officially reported. Many if not all of whom are not making it to hospitals presumably because of a lack of insurance or overall cost. That makes the virus far more dangerous and deadlier to the population than is being reported and people have a right to know just how dangerous and at risk their lives are as they make decisions about what risk to take. 

That information should definitely be taken into account when deciding reopening decisions as well as judging just how many casualties those decisions are leading to. 

[Anastasis 23717]

11 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

And why exactly is the cumulative line "holding steady" a good thing?  I mean, yay, we can all get haircuts again, but if we're adding dead bodies to the pile at roughly the same rate, what was the point of all of this?  

...

You're basically celebrating the fact that reopening hasn't made it worse. 

Uh, yeah.  My baseline expectation was that we were going to see a big spike in cases and resultant fatalities. That we have held course is a good sign.  The goal of shut down was not to move the daily new case count to zero, it was to prevent an overwhelming of our healthcare system.  Now that we are re-opening, the goal is not that we achieve a daily new case count of zero, it is that we turn things back on without overwhelming the system. 

We are not escaping the virus until we have a vaccine.  Those charts are a good thing. If you don't see that you have unrealistic expectations for how this is going to shake out. 

[Anastasis 23717]

15 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

How is it not relevant? Potentially more than double the amount of people are dying from the virus in Texas than are being officially reported. Many if not all of whom are not making it to hospitals presumably because of a lack of insurance or overall cost. That makes the virus far more dangerous and deadlier to the population than is being reported and people have a right to know just how dangerous and at risk their lives are as they make decisions about what risk to take. 

That information should definitely be taken into account when deciding reopening decisions as well as judging just how many casualties those decisions are leading to. 

Unless there is a differential in the attribution bias between the pre- and post-policy period it is not relevant to understanding the impact of the re-opening. 

 

[F250 29200]

I am guessing if we don't see a major spike in cases over the next couple of weeks we are good for the rest of the summer.

[Wanker Bob 379]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Unless there is a differential in the attribution bias between the pre- and post-policy period it is not relevant to understanding the impact of the re-opening. 

 

Considering the state didn't go full wild west reopen until Memorial day and the YTD data is through May 29 you can consider virtually all of it as "pre-policy period". It will be easy to do the same evaluation for any point in time going forward and deduct the May 29 YTD numbers to get data on which to evaluate. 

That said, it's still extremely fucked up and wrong for these Covid deaths to be hidden from public knowledge. If this is happening in every state like the data seems to suggest we could be looking at being close to if not over 200k deaths right now. 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Anastasis 23717]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

I am guessing if we don't see a major spike in cases over the next couple of weeks we are good for the rest of the summer.

Yeah, pretty much where I am at. Given everything going down right now in major urban areas across the state, if we don't see a spike by end of June I think it a very good sign.  I don't necessarily think that we should take a second wave as granted either. My hope is that we can maintain this course into 2021 with vax roll out. Keep this shit out of the nursing homes and away from the immunocompromised and high risk and we don't have to look like the northeast US.  

[Anastasis 23717]

1 minute ago, Wanker Bob said:

Considering the state didn't go full wild west reopen until Memorial day and the YTD data is through May 29 you can considering virtually all of it as "pre-policy period". It will be easy to do the same evaluation for any point in time going forward and deduct the May 29 YTD numbers to get data on which to evaluate. 

That said, it's still extremely fucked up and wrong for these Covid deaths to be hidden from public knowledge. If this is happening in every state like the data seems to suggest we could be looking at being close to if not over 200k deaths right now. 

Dude, stop being such a wanker.  The data are good right now.  If they hold, it is a good thing.  If the data turn, I'll be the first to point out that we are flying into the fucking mountain. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Dude, stop being such a wanker.  The data are good right now.  If they hold, it is a good thing.  If the data turn, I'll be the first to point out that we are flying into the fucking mountain. 

The official data you're using aren't good. The data is faulty and under-reporting deaths by over double the amount. Just admit that you don't give a shit what the actual data is and you just want to believe what you want to believe. 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[justhookit 4206]

1 minute ago, Wanker Bob said:

The data aren't good. The data is faulty and under-reporting deaths by over double the amount. Just admit that you don't give a shit what the actual data is and you just want to believe what you want to believe. 

Dude give it a rest. The tweet last week that started all this covid vs. pneumonia deaths was 100% bullshit. You were involved in the thread that discussed it. 

[Anastasis 23717]

2 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

The official data you're using aren't good. The data is faulty and under-reporting deaths by over double the amount. Just admit that you don't give a shit what the actual data is and you just want to believe what you want to believe. 

You still have not explained to anybody here why we should have any reason to suspect a differential bias over time in coding of death. 

[Sawbonz 28219]

I figure all the hospitals overreporting covid to get the Medicare money cancels out the state agencies underreporting it for political points  

 

Seriously though from personal experience at one and speaking to colleagues at the others none of the big 4 hospitals in DFW have seen a spike in admissions or intubations in general or covid specific. We will know more in the next 2 weeks. 

[Anastasis 23717]

3 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I figure all the hospitals overreporting covid to get the Medicare money cancels out the state agencies underreporting it for political points  

 

Seriously though from personal experience at one and speaking to colleagues at the others none of the big 4 hospitals in DFW have seen a spike in admissions or intubations in general or covid specific. We will know more in the next 2 weeks. 

Glad to see you back here posting. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

12 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Dude give it a rest. The tweet last week that started all this covid vs. pneumonia deaths was 100% bullshit. You were involved in the thread that discussed it. 

I spelled it out using research I did myself and provided the CDC links to it. Follow the directions I give and see for yourself. It isn't bullshit. The CDC numbers spell it out. If you have a factual rebuttal then provide but otherwise your opinion isn't helpful when I've provided facts. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

13 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

I figure all the hospitals overreporting covid to get the Medicare money cancels out the state agencies underreporting it for political points  

 

Seriously though from personal experience at one and speaking to colleagues at the others none of the big 4 hospitals in DFW have seen a spike in admissions or intubations in general or covid specific. We will know more in the next 2 weeks. 

Talk about completely unsubstantiated BS. Gonna need a factual data there.

On the 2nd point the most likely cause of the huge spike in misdiagnosed pneumonia deaths is people who aren't making it to a hospital and are dying outside a hospital. Those deaths don't figure into hospital beds or ICU capacity but are very relevant to the danger this virus poses. 

[Sawbonz 28219]

Are you new around here? The first paragraph was sarcasm obviously 

Edited May 31, 2020 by Sawbonz
Fucking wanker

[justhookit 4206]

39 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Talk about completely unsubstantiated BS. Gonna need a factual data there.

Are you regarded?

And I have no idea what research you did but your numbers are wrong. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200502/coronavirus-in-texas-death-data-suggest-covid-19-undercount-possible

Quote

For most of the year, Texas reported fewer pneumonia deaths than usual. From Dec. 29 to March 14, Texas reported 3,169 pneumonia deaths — 501 fewer than is typical. But from March 15 to April 11, pneumonia was listed as the cause of death for 1,185 people — 79 more than usual.

https://apnews.com/467387275ae5779c9bf031f3f2bcb2cf

Quote

Last month, the CDC said the U.S. has seen at least 66,000 more deaths than usual at that point of the year. The new coronavirus was reported as a cause in about half the excess deaths. 

I have no doubt we are slightly undercounting Covid deaths but it is nowhere close to what you are suggesting.

Edited June 1, 2020 by justhookit

[Wanker Bob 379]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

Are you regarded?

And I have no idea what research you did but your numbers are wrong. 

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200502/coronavirus-in-texas-death-data-suggest-covid-19-undercount-possible

https://apnews.com/467387275ae5779c9bf031f3f2bcb2cf

I have no doubt we are slightly undercounting Covid deaths but it is nowhere close to what you are suggesting.

My numbers came straight from the CDC. I provided the links to the CDC pages. Get off your lazy ass and check them yourself it only takes a few minutes since I provided it all for you. 

Posting a link from a month ago from the AAS where they aren't even comparing or discussing pneumonia deaths at all and aren't giving any official direct source links for their numbers is bullshit. You didn't address any of my data. 

Once again. Do the math I provided for you. The numbers are there. Texas is out pacing it's pneumonia deaths by thousands to this point in 2020. It isn't the flu. It isn't colds. Those are around every year. The only thing different is Covid19 and grossly underreporting covid19 deaths by most likely more than half is criminal. 

You republican fucks have cold hard facts slapping you in the face like a giant dick and you just keep spouting bullshit in circles to avoid facing the fact you're wrong. 

[Wanker Bob 379]

3 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

Are you new around here? The first paragraph was sarcasm obviously 

Great, now the trump "oh I was just joking" garbage when caught saying something retarded.

[Sawbonz 28219]

17 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Great, now the trump "oh I was just joking" garbage when caught saying something retarded.

So you think there have been 1500+ additional covid deaths in Texas, and the medical examiners of Dallas, Tarrant, Harris, Travis, and Bexar counties, plus the 20 or so other ME’s of smaller Texas counties and who knows how many JPs  are conspiring with the state to hide it from us?

 

I actually was illustrating the absurdity of your take by pairing it with the patently ridiculous idea that hospitals could (or would even try to) game Medicare by inflating covid deaths. 
 

 

Edited June 1, 2020 by Sawbonz

[Macanudo 13320]

2 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

So you think there have been 1500+ additional covid deaths in Texas, and the medical examiners of Dallas, Tarrant, Harris, Travis, and Bexar counties, plus the 20 or so other ME’s of smaller Texas counties and who knows how many JPs  are conspiring with the state to hide it from us?

 

I actually was illustrating the absurdity of your take by pairing it with the patently ridiculous idea that hospitals could (or would even try to) game Medicare by inflating covid deaths. 
 

 

I actually do kind of worry about this.  Look at Florida and see how they have tried to undercount numbers.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5169]

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

You mean the "Rundberg HEB". 

Yeah no shit. I spent a good 45 seconds trying to figure that out, then I’m like, “oh he’s talking about my old Rundberg H-E-B.” That H-E-B hasn’t been my H-E-B in 20 years but it was pretty great. 

[High Plains Drifter 11187]

3 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

So you think there have been 1500+ additional covid deaths in Texas, and the medical examiners of Dallas, Tarrant, Harris, Travis, and Bexar counties, plus the 20 or so other ME’s of smaller Texas counties and who knows how many JPs  are conspiring with the state to hide it from us?

 

I actually was illustrating the absurdity of your take by pairing it with the patently ridiculous idea that hospitals could (or would even try to) game Medicare by inflating covid deaths. 
 

 

 

No, he's saying he's saying that a lot of deaths that are probably from Covid are only being reported as pneumonia deaths because the deceased were never tested for covid (due to testing shortages presumably), and therefore weren't coded as covid deaths. This makes sense because reported pneumonia deaths are way higher than normal. It seems reasonable to subtract the "average" or "normal" number of pneumonia deaths from the reported number of pneumonia deaths to get an estimate of how many unreported covid deaths there have been.

Add in the politicization of this entire pandemic, and the propensity of the current administration to lie and members of ruling party to go along with those lies (see Florida busted for deliberately under reporting its covid deaths) , and it seems pretty likely that the actual covid death numbers are much higher than the official numbers.

 

edit; After re-reading some of the thread, maybe he is saying the under reporting is deliberate. I dunno.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it was. But it wouldn't be the hospitals and ME's and such doing it, it would be the political hacks.

Edited June 1, 2020 by High Plains Drifter

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

I don’t see how continued reopening won’t lead to more cases which a corresponding increase in hospitalization unless the summer heat/humidity theories are correct. It’s not like reopening can be as safe as everyone staying home, and continued reopening will lead to complacency.

 

[Sawbonz 28219]

I read it as he thinks it is deliberate underreporting. If he thinks lack of resources is leading to an underreporting I agree w that although I don’t think 1500+ have been missed, given it’s literally the number one public health issue

[Captainant 28536]

55 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how continued reopening won’t lead to more cases which a corresponding increase in hospitalization unless the summer heat/humidity theories are correct. It’s not like reopening can be as safe as everyone staying home, and continued reopening will lead to complacency.

 

This is what I'm thinking as well - if the new case trend is steady or even slightly negative then that is pretty good evidence of the virus acting seasonally and we can reasonably hope for a less COVID summer. 

But on the flip side we'll have a high degree of group exposure and people are NOT gonna go back to social distancing when they're so close to football season and fall sports. So unless there's a super effective and fully scaled up vaccine ready by fall... It's gonna be a doozie

[BrazilHorn 6843]

I don't see how under reporting could happen at scale. Maybe in a "Red" state but in states like New York, Mass etc there is zero reason to reduce the death counts as if anything that could be seen as enabling Trump's "re-opening" policies. I can't with how leaky government agencies are, hospitals etc that this news wouldn't have been passed on to a reporter.

There is no way a national deliberate plan to under report deaths can be executed. I see it as the lack of testing early on led to the under reporting vs a conspiracy.

 

[wildcat09 29579]

28 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I don't see how under reporting could happen at scale. Maybe in a "Red" state but in states like New York, Mass etc there is zero reason to reduce the death counts as if anything that could be seen as enabling Trump's "re-opening" policies. I can't with how leaky government agencies are, hospitals etc that this news wouldn't have been passed on to a reporter.

There is no way a national deliberate plan to under report deaths can be executed. I see it as the lack of testing early on led to the under reporting vs a conspiracy.

 

States run by Democrats won't do it and a couple states run by Republicans won't do it, but we've already seen a lot of evidence of states with the more MAGA Republican governors fucking with their numbers. They might not be good at it, but they're certainly trying to.

[justhookit 4206]

4 hours ago, Sawbonz said:

I read it as he thinks it is deliberate underreporting. If he thinks lack of resources is leading to an underreporting I agree w that although I don’t think 1500+ have been missed, given it’s literally the number one public health issue

I’ve discussed this with him on a few threads already. He won’t listen that his numbers are wrong. For whatever reason the chart on CDC he is getting it from way undercounts pneumonia deaths for previous years. This all started with a tweet based on a reddit post that seemed to show multiple states reporting 4 to 5 times the average number of pneumonia cases this year. The reality is that the true increase was anywhere from 1-25%. So yes we are definitely slightly to moderately undercounting covid deaths, but it is nowhere near what he is alleging. Since he likes referencing CDC so much, here is a pretty chart for him. I’m not sure where he thinks Texas is “hiding” covid deaths. You can look at national level or state level. This is for Texas - https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

 

[BrazilHorn 6843]

57 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

States run by Democrats won't do it and a couple states run by Republicans won't do it, but we've already seen a lot of evidence of states with the more MAGA Republican governors fucking with their numbers. They might not be good at it, but they're certainly trying to.

That's why I am saying at scale nationally. Could I see small town R bumpkin medical examiner fudging data? Sure. Especially if they could point to fact that there was no Covid test to dispute their findings. However if there were some national effort someone would squeal. Whistleblowing is a cottage industry in the Trump admin. I cannot believe someone, somewhere wouldn't come forward if this were a directed effort to manipulate the data.

[Sawbonz 28219]

56 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

States run by Democrats won't do it and a couple states run by Republicans won't do it, but we've already seen a lot of evidence of states with the more MAGA Republican governors fucking with their numbers. They might not be good at it, but they're certainly trying to.

I buy they might want to do it I just don’t see how they could. Even 2 months ago many at home deaths and maybe some hospital deaths were certainly missed, but that’s different than purposefully  miscategorizing them. Also currently every patient that is admitted to the hospital, even for outpatient procedures, is tested for covid 19.  Every in-hospital death will have been tested. At this point I would imagine most of not all at home deaths will have been tested. What is the mechanism by which covid positive deaths could be suppressed?

[wildcat09 29579]

1 minute ago, Sawbonz said:

I buy they might want to do it I just don’t see how they could. Even 2 months ago many at home deaths and maybe some hospital deaths were certainly missed, but that’s different than purposefully  miscategorizing them. Also currently every patient that is admitted to the hospital, even for outpatient procedures, is tested for covid 19.  Every in-hospital death will have been tested. At this point I would imagine most of not all at home deaths will have been tested. What is the mechanism by which covid positive deaths could be suppressed?

Maybe it's changed by now, but the State of Florida had forbidden its MEs from publicly announcing any information about covid deaths. If the state can limit the agencies that publicly announce any data, it makes it easier to manipulate. Of course, that doesn't stop people in those agencies from leaking about what's going on, but that gets back to they suck at it, not that they can't do it at all.

[Sawbonz 28219]

1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

Maybe it's changed by now, but the State of Florida had forbidden its MEs from publicly announcing any information about covid deaths. If the state can limit the agencies that publicly announce any data, it makes it easier to manipulate. Of course, that doesn't stop people in those agencies from leaking about what's going on, but that gets back to they suck at it, not that they can't do it at all.

Yeah I just don’t see e.g. the Miami-Dade county ME submitting X Covid deaths, seeing the state publish .50X deaths, and keeping quiet. Even if the chief ME was in on it, no way everyone up and down the line stays quiet