Texas Re-Opening Announced

[Biff Tannen 46,164]

Hanging out in Fredericksburg and not a mask to be seen. People are distancing though. To be fair, Gillespie county has 5 reported cases and no deaths. That said, I can’t imagine that most people are staying here for 2 weeks so the numbers may be a bit off. 

[washparkhorn 9,973]

Treatment is at the brink of a "hold the door" moment. Tremendous improvement in medical treatment options, but more is needed to stay ahead of the wave. They are our QEII. Heroes. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

7 hours ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

“We’ve seen a pretty steady increase in both admissions and ICU admissions over the past week or so,” said Dr. James McDeavitt, Senior Vice President and Dean of Clinical Affairs for the Baylor College of Medicine. “A day in itself is not alarming. The disturbing thing is it seems to be a little bit more every day. It’s been a very consistent increase.”

 

https://www.click2houston.com/health/2020/06/05/med-center-sees-uptick-in-covid-19-patients-in-icus-warns-if-trend-continues-capacity-could-be-exceeded-in-2-weeks/

The Med Center has revised their estimates that icu capacity could be exceeded in 5 weeks not 2. they have the ability to drastically increase icu beds in an emergency so perhaps that is the reason for the 2 vs 5 debate. The hospitalization # continues to climb so I doubt it’s due to fewer patients.

[BrazilHorn 6,843]

9 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

Where are you pulling the chart for the antibody test from?  And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

They have a live tool that is updated with various views. Lots of good visuals. Only 113k antibody tests have been administered and as folks like ChiTownDoc have mentioned who knows how accurate those tests have been.

[GRHorn 105]

On 6/1/2020 at 7:03 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I don’t see how continued reopening won’t lead to more cases which a corresponding increase in hospitalization unless the summer heat/humidity theories are correct. It’s not like reopening can be as safe as everyone staying home, and continued reopening will lead to complacency.

 

I’ve posted in other threads that SA hospitalization numbers have been pretty stable. Looks like statewide they might be slowly creeping up. I think we should expect it to continue. Around here the percentage of people wearing masks has plummeted over the last week or so. 

[UT_OB1 2,266]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

https://apps.texastribune.org/features/2020/texas-coronavirus-cases-map/

They have a live tool that is updated with various views. Lots of good visuals. Only 113k antibody tests have been administered and as folks like ChiTownDoc have mentioned who knows how accurate those tests have been.

What I’ve read about most of the tests is that they are not reliable for making decisions on an individual basis, but they are more than accurate enough to do large studies of the population with. Thanks for the link

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

8 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

What I’ve read about most of the tests is that they are not reliable for making decisions on an individual basis, but they are more than accurate enough to do large studies of the population with. Thanks for the link

This is how I see it. Say that you test positive for the antibodies, presumably meaning that you had COVID and are most likely immune at this point. You should still wear a mask in public. Perhaps it may be impossible for you to infect others or vice versa, but others don't know that. You're not wearing a shirt that say you had COVID-19.  And as more people stop wearing masks, sheeple will follow along and toss their mask aside.

And yes, wearing a mask in public is partially for show as in showing respect for others.

 

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21,551]

Seems I read somewhere it’s mutating; the infection risk is staying stable but lethalness isn’t decreasing.

correct?

[elfenix 34,749]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/COVID-19-cases-hospitalizations-spiking-in-15321171.php

[Texas Jeff 1,999]

11 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

And do we have a decent amount of testing in the area at this point to say X% have the antibodies?

Texas's antibody tests so far have shown about 4% positive.  That number has been flat over the past few weeks.  Keep in mind that the population is somewhat self-selected.  You have to have the desire and time to get a test, the knowledge of where to get it, and maybe the money to pay for the test.  Or maybe you were having another medical procedure so you were tested.  Only about 1 in 260 people in Texas have had an antibody test and maybe 2-3 thousand people per day are getting antibody tests in Texas.  Also some are saying the test may not be accurate.

So, the current answer is 4%. In my non-scientific opinion, there has not been enough random testing with a proven test in a large enough population to draw conclusions.

[F250 29,200]

I was at HEB today and there has been a significant increase in non-masked shoppers. Stopped by Twin Liquors and I was the oddball in a mask but I noticed liquor stores were always full of people without masks during this pandemic.

 

[SubliminalHorn 7,009]

Visiting family in SA/Austin this weekend. In Austin now, went to the south central market today and it was a breath of fresh air seeing the number of masks compared to Fort Worth. God I can’t wait to move back next month. 

[Anastasis 23,717]

Next week should be interesting, across Texas and the major cities across the country. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

From the site I view for aggregated covid 19 data, today was one of the worst days in Texas for new cases, just shy of 2000.  Houston survived the initial covid cases relatively unscathed but I worry that it could get bad here soon based on recent trends.

i know that it’s unlikely the govt will again shut down businesses but if cases and deaths grow, an informal shutdown will occur when people vote with their feet. A restaurant can open at 50, 75 or 100% but it doesn’t matter if no one shows up.

[4th&Five 42,004]

S. Austin Costco today. 100% masks. They’re probably still requiring it but everyone was complying. 

[gmr548 16,697]

Seems I read somewhere it’s mutating; the infection risk is staying stable but lethalness isn’t decreasing.
correct?

So what's changing?

[elfenix 34,749]

3 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

S. Austin Costco today. 100% masks. They’re probably still requiring it but everyone was complying. 

costco requires masks. 

 

 

[bernorange 8,385]

9 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

S. Austin Costco today. 100% masks. They’re probably still requiring it but everyone was complying. 

I saw my local Costco kick a mother and two children from the store because they weren't wearing masks.  Not sure how they even got in the door as there are alway several employees there screening customers.

[TXSG8R 3,362]

On 6/6/2020 at 12:08 AM, Biff Tannen said:

Hanging out in Fredericksburg and not a mask to be seen. People are distancing though. To be fair, Gillespie county has 5 reported cases and no deaths. That said, I can’t imagine that most people are staying here for 2 weeks so the numbers may be a bit off. 

Mask usage / distancing is getting worse in Bell county/Killeen.  Even some of the places that are mandatory masks are just mailing it in.  People have masks on their heads, but they are pulled down below their noses or even their chins.  A lot of the employees are doing it, so customers are following suit.  There's a very real sense here that shit is over. 

[CooterBrown 18,288]

Shoal Creek Lowe’s yesterday had quite a few without masks. Maybe 10-15% which is high for the location. Kids running around unsupervised with no masks. A fat worker pushing a pallet jack with his mask pulled down so he doesn’t die. Several with masks but down around their necks. Give it 2 months and I’d guess maybe 10% will have masks.

[Covri 6,368]

Mask usage was down the other day when  I had to go into the grocery store. Was probably 70% previous time (month ago) and this time closer to 30%. This is in Collin county.

[tantric superman 4,668]

22 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Seems I read somewhere it’s mutating; the infection risk is staying stable but lethalness isn’t decreasing.

correct?

[mdmost 44,026]

REI in Dallas was about 95% mask usage when I was there doing returns. The 3 I saw who didn't have them on where two bro douches and oddly, an old hippy looking guy. 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

Our grocery store was a 50-50 mix of employees (mostly wearing them albeit some were not covering their noses) and customers. Young people--very few. Middle aged--mostly women. Seniors--all women. Had to get past an elderly fellow, maybe 70's and he's got no mask and his cart is sideways in the aisle. I had just turned the corner so I start to back up, thinking 'never mind I'll go around.' Why I didn't do that I don't know. He sees me and turns and pulls his cart to the side and lets out the biggest sneeze (not fake either) while his hands are on the cart. Thanks man, and god bless. I love being sneezed on when I'm wearing a mask to protect YOU.

[Rougarou 594]

3 hours ago, Covri said:

Mask usage was down the other day when  I had to go into the grocery store. Was probably 70% previous time (month ago) and this time closer to 30%. This is in Collin county.

This is me to be honest, I'm increasingly forgetting/being lazy. When getting a haircut or doing something where I have to interact with someone I will wear, but just running into the QuikTrip while pumping gas or something I haven't been as vigilant.

[GRHorn 105]

Not sure what phase of the reopening plan this belongs to, but saw this sign out driving today. 

 

[HenryJames 67,338]

3 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Not sure what phase of the reopening plan this belongs to, but saw this sign out driving today. 

 

Somewhere between 25% and 50%.

[CooterBrown 18,288]

Heard that TEA’s guideline they are giving school districts is that their county needs a 30 day downward new case trend to open with low risk kids and a 50 day downward trend to allow all kids back to school.

Dunno how close that 30th/50th day can be to the first day of class before they have to make the call to start with remote teaching.

[kevwun 16,438]

The governor doesn't follow his own guidelines so I don't know how they're gonna enforce that.

[sidis 10,016]

As much as I hate to adimit ever being in fucking Dallas, I am here now for work in uptown and apparently, the whole coronavirus news didn’t make it here. I’m probably already dead and don’t know it yet. 

[Anastasis 23,717]

14 minutes ago, sidis said:

As much as I hate to adimit ever being in fucking Dallas, I am here now for work in uptown and apparently, the whole coronavirus news didn’t make it here. I’m probably already dead and don’t know it yet. 

It’s alright. We seem to have forgotten all about it in Austin too. 
 

[GRHorn 105]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It’s alright. We seem to have forgotten all about it in Austin too. 
 

It’s ok. That gathering was approved by the Approval and Justification Committee. 

[HenryJames 67,338]

[Anastasis 23,717]

Freddie may not be the best advocate for infectious disease control. Just saying. 

[Anastasis 23,717]

Wait. Iswydt?

[JimmyJames 12,271]

On 6/4/2020 at 8:38 AM, BrazilHorn said:

The notion of an uptick in cases being a "bad" thing is what is being inaccurately reported. It really does all matter if those cases end up in hospitalizations. As number of tests increase the absolute number of positives will as well. However if they are all asymptomatic that won't impact the health care system. The entire notion of "Shelter-in-place" is not to keep us from getting CV19 it is to keep us all from getting it at the exact same time and flooding the hospitals. We are all going to get it as no one has immunity built up to the strain. The real challenge is that America is full of fat people (I think I read 10% of US is >40 BMI) which is labeled "Extremely obese". Now I agree that the BMI chart can be off in some cases (mine eg I am 6'3" 208, labeled obese via BMI but I am very fit, workout daily etc) but CV has shown absolutely that if you are overweight it will run through and there are a lot of fatties in the US. Why the news doesn't report hospitalizations is beyond me (especially hospitalizations as a % of total positive cases)

Summer and the sunlight should keep the numbers down and if it doesn’t we are in for a world of hurt. Since its a Coronavirus and not the flu I expect it to drop significantly in the summer. More so than even the flu.

The fall and winter will tell the tale.

[justhookit 4,206]

12 hours ago, Rougarou said:

This is me to be honest, I'm increasingly forgetting/being lazy. When getting a haircut or doing something where I have to interact with someone I will wear, but just running into the QuikTrip while pumping gas or something I haven't been as vigilant.

I’m right here with you on this now. Port A went from 50/50 masked last week to almost 0 in masks this weekend. I guess we are getting 100%of our tourists from Austin/SA that don’t belong to the group wearing masks at home. Or they come to the beach on vacation and say fuck it. I did see one guy walk into a bar today with his mask on along with his unmasked friend. I needed a few more beers or I would have gone up and asked if he was sick or maybe going to rob the place. He took it off after about 5 minutes.  Seems to be a domino effect because most of the locals were wearing them previously. Now they are not.

One bar here is making everyone use hand sanitizer when they walk in and they are also doing a temp check. Trashy local girl walks in and without missing a beat a longtime female  bartender yells out “did you sanitize your pussy too?”. That got some laughs.

We are just rolling the dice now. I’m still not going to indoor bars and restaurants or really anything inside with other people other than the occasional grocery store. That won’t change anytime soon.

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

6 hours ago, justhookit said:

I’m right here with you on this now. Port A went from 50/50 masked last week to almost 0 in masks this weekend. I guess we are getting 100%of our tourists from Austin/SA that don’t belong to the group wearing masks at home. Or they come to the beach on vacation and say fuck it. I did see one guy walk into a bar today with his mask on along with his unmasked friend. I needed a few more beers or I would have gone up and asked if he was sick or maybe going to rob the place. He took it off after about 5 minutes.  Seems to be a domino effect because most of the locals were wearing them previously. Now they are not.

One bar here is making everyone use hand sanitizer when they walk in and they are also doing a temp check. Trashy local girl walks in and without missing a beat a longtime female  bartender yells out “did you sanitize your pussy too?”. That got some laughs.

We are just rolling the dice now. I’m still not going to indoor bars and restaurants or really anything inside with other people other than the occasional grocery store. That won’t change anytime soon.

Yeah the gloves are off in Texas.  I figure if by 6/30 the hospitals aren’t on pace to be overwhelmed, then we are probably golden until at least October.  Wife and I decided if Austin MSA 7 day moving average hospitalizations aren’t over 150 by 6/30 we are removing all of our self-imposed restrictions.  I just hope that there’s a treatment or vaccine by fall, or at least that people are willing to lock down again for another 2 months if needed.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

1 hour ago, Snake Diggity said:

Yeah the gloves are off in Texas.  I figure if by 6/30 the hospitals aren’t on pace to be overwhelmed, then we are probably golden until at least October.  Wife and I decided if Austin MSA 7 day moving average hospitalizations aren’t over 150 by 6/30 we are removing all of our self-imposed restrictions.  I just hope that there’s a treatment or vaccine by fall, or at least that people are willing to lock down again for another 2 months if needed.

Can't speak for Austin, but Houston is projecting problems with ICU beds within a couple of weeks at the current rate, and new daily cases are jumping up. Some say that is because of increased testing but testing is not increasing. Positive test rates are increasing only. Add the protests and the general lessening of masks, I don't think we are going to see the summer COVID drop that some anticipated.

Unfortunately we all have short attention spans and many used up all of their patience of lockdown/staying home/wearing masks during March-May. Many are not going back to a "lock down" environment. 

Hopefully all of the above is wrong and ICUs and cases hit another plateau if not fall.

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

One of the factors that reduces transmission in the summer of viruses in general is that school is out, reducing that confined population of little germ spreaders. With that, however, you still have some immunity from past exposures. Since that isn't the case with this virus the summer outdoor camps resuming probably won't have too much of an effect (due to being outdoors and precautions) and I think things will stabilize but I do wonder if day care will keep some low level spreading going around. I am a little concerned about the fall though.

[Biff Tannen 46,164]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Unfortunately we all have short attention spans and many used up all of their patience of lockdown/staying home/wearing masks during March-May. Many are not going back to a "lock down" environment. 

This.  I don't think we have it in us for another lockdown.  This was our best effort and we can't be bothered to go again.  Now we let the chips fall where they may.

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

23 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Can't speak for Austin, but Houston is projecting problems with ICU beds within a couple of weeks at the current rate, and new daily cases are jumping up. Some say that is because of increased testing but testing is not increasing. Positive test rates are increasing only. Add the protests and the general lessening of masks, I don't think we are going to see the summer COVID drop that some anticipated.

Unfortunately we all have short attention spans and many used up all of their patience of lockdown/staying home/wearing masks during March-May. Many are not going back to a "lock down" environment. 

Hopefully all of the above is wrong and ICUs and cases hit another plateau if not fall.

The daily hospitalizations from this graph is what I am tracking:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/43b91f7147934b0190119781f81aa896

Since we’ve established pretty firmly that this virus isn’t all that lethal, the hospital capacity is the primary risk factor that could escalate the death rate.  Plus, I think hospitalizations are less subject to data manipulation than total cases (although I could be wrong about that).

That site shows total number of cases has increased but hospitalizations really havent.  That’s what I’ll be watching as the results of reopening and mass gatherings become known.

 

[Snake Diggity 4,714]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This.  I don't think we have it in us for another lockdown.  This was our best effort and we can't be bothered to go again.  Now we let the chips fall where they may.

If we have short attention spans, wouldn’t we all forget how bad lockdown sucked by November if we’ve had 5 months of relative normalcy?  Plus, I think there would be more undeniable evidence (especially in Texas) that lockdown was actually needed (hospitals turning people away, more people in the social network getting sick/dying).

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

If we have short attention spans, then let us hope that Jared Kushner doesn't sell all the medical equipment this summer so that in the fall we actually have the supplies necessary to help people.

[Anastasis 23,717]

5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The daily hospitalizations from this graph is what I am tracking:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/43b91f7147934b0190119781f81aa896

Since we’ve established pretty firmly that this virus isn’t all that lethal, the hospital capacity is the primary risk factor that could escalate the death rate.  Plus, I think hospitalizations are less subject to data manipulation than total cases (although I could be wrong about that).

That site shows total number of cases has increased but hospitalizations really havent.  That’s what I’ll be watching as the results of reopening and mass gatherings become known.

 

Yep, the rationale for the lock down was based on try to avoid problems with our hospital and ICU capacity. Those are the numbers to watch imo.  Cases are a good leading indicator, but there are so many factors influencing the id of cases and influence whether they end up in the hospital. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,729]

Texas Med Center #s from Houston. This doesn't represent all of Houston but I would guess it's a good barometer of Houston overall. It's been on a steady rise since May 17th but may have plateaued over the past few days. 

 

 

[Lagunamadre 1,975]

9 hours ago, justhookit said:

 

One bar here is making everyone use hand sanitizer when they walk in and they are also doing a temp check. Trashy local girl walks in and without missing a beat a longtime female  bartender yells out “did you sanitize your pussy too?”. That got some laughs.

 

God I love Port A dive bars. Where did that go down? Gaff or Shortys? 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

This is similar to what we’re seeing in Alabama - a spike in hospitalizations and the hospitalized patients are much sicker than we saw earlier.

[justhookit 4,206]

1 hour ago, Lagunamadre said:

God I love Port A dive bars. Where did that go down? Gaff or Shortys? 

Good guesses, but it was at Red’s (the old Lovett’s).

[gyroprotagonist 2,597]

i think people are satisfied with 

and just don't care anymore.  I get out 1-2 times per week and wear a mask if I go in a store or something.  But I see people wearing masks while driving and i don't think they are Uber/Lyft drivers.  I don't get that.

with the protests and crowds going on and the slowly rising numbers well in the background, no one is going to wear a mask or SD

Whole Foods is even slipping from 100% to 99%.  chick who looked like Marcy from Married w/ Children not wearing a mask and paying in cash.