Texas Re-Opening Announced

[Anastasis 23395]

16 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

This is similar to what we’re seeing in Alabama - a spike in hospitalizations and the hospitalized patients are much sicker than we saw earlier.

 

 

This is being discussed in the DT thread, and given some of the data provided by @Nice Guy Eddie on that thread, it appears to be driven by service area Q numbers, which includes Harris and 8 surrounding counties. 

NGE, do you have thoughts as to why that region appears to go from negative slope for hospitalization to positive slope abruptly in June, a trend not apparent in any other region. The front end of that inflection seems too early to be driven solely by protests. The lack of similar inflections in other population centers suggests that reopening is not solely responsible. Any thoughts?

[Lagunamadre 1975]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

Good guesses, but it was at Red’s (the old Lovett’s).

I've yet to go there, I'll have to check it out next time I'm down. Do they have the same kareoke set up as Lovett's? 

[Pig Bellmont 8691]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Something is weird with Harris County, but not Houston proper. Look at the daily case counts. Houston has remained (relatively) steady with a spike here and there. But when you look at the county as a whole, there's a huge, huge spike on June 3rd with 336 cases, where the previous high was around 100. And it's remained higher than normal even after 6/3. 

https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus

I can't seem to find a way to see that particular day by county to try to figure it out, though.

Edited June 8, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

This past week my mom went into the Houston Methodist Hospital, not C19 related, but she had an emergency surgery that required a admittance to the ICU post surgery.  She wasn’t able to get an ICU bed and she told me there were three other patients in the ICU prep/waiting area (not sure what you call it).  They would not tell her why she couldn’t get an ICU bed.

 She did well enough that they discharged her from the hospital yesterday and she is back at home recovering but her pulmonologist said to stay the hell out Texas because folks there were not listening/behaving well enough and C19 is taking off.  
 

/CSB

[Lagunamadre 1975]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This past week my mom went into the Houston Methodist Hospital, not C19 related, but she had an emergency surgery that required a admittance to the ICU post surgery.  She wasn’t able to get an ICU bed and she told me there were three other patients in the ICU prep/waiting area (not sure what you call it).  They would not tell her why she couldn’t get an ICU bed.

 She did well enough that they discharged her from the hospital yesterday and she is back at home recovering but her pulmonologist said to stay the hell out Texas because folks there were not listening/behaving well enough and C19 is taking off.  
 

/CSB

That does not see to comport with their own data. Strange. 

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/total-icu-bed-occupancy/

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, Lagunamadre said:

That does not see to comport with their own data. Strange. 

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/total-icu-bed-occupancy/

She went into surgery Thursday evening and needed the ICU Friday/Sat.  Like I said, they didn’t tell her much information and perhaps they figured she wasn’t a priority given her quick recovery. I don’t know.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

She went into surgery Thursday evening and needed the ICU Friday/Sat.  Like I said, they didn’t tell her much information and perhaps they figured she wasn’t a priority given her quick recovery. I don’t know.

The majority of hospitals are discharging people faster than they normally would to keep ICU beds open. Even hospitals that aren't hot spots. I know of one Central Texas hospital that is trying to get everyone out of the OR discharged where possible and this hospital has zero Covid patients and is in a very low-occurence area. 

It's not a capacity issue, it's just hospitals being cautious and keeping beds open. It probably saved your mom or her insurance company a bunch of money on something (an ICU stay) that wasn't necessary.

[Anastasis 23395]

14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Something is weird with Harris County, but not Houston proper. Look at the daily case counts. Houston has remained (relatively) steady with a spike here and there. But when you look at the county as a whole, there's a huge, huge spike on June 3rd with 336 cases, where the previous high was around 100. And it's remained higher than normal even after 6/3. 

https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus

I can't seem to find a way to see that particular day by county to try to figure it out, though.

Something is fucked up there. The breakdowns between Houston vs. Other Harris country are weird starting about June 1 if not a few days earlier.   

[wildcat09 29256]

So y'all are telling me Houston is cool and unincorporated Harris County is basically the Walking Dead? 

[safe sex 11682]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

She went into surgery Thursday evening and needed the ICU Friday/Sat.  Like I said, they didn’t tell her much information and perhaps they figured she wasn’t a priority given her quick recovery. I don’t know.

Did they tell her why she would be requiring ICU-level post op care? Like, was she told that she'd spend the night in the ICU after surgery, or was she told after surgery that she needed the ICU bed? 

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, wildcat09 said:

So y'all are telling me Houston is cool and unincorporated Harris County is basically the Walking Dead? 

I don't think there's much to know yet because like Anastasis said the data is wonky and you have to hit multiple sites to try to drill down on anything, and the numbers don't even agree from site to site.

[mchookem 16219]

21 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

 

this seems alarming. is this alarming?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

3 minutes ago, trauma babe said:

Did they tell her why she would be requiring ICU-level post op care? Like, was she told that she'd spend the night in the ICU after surgery, or was she told after surgery that she needed the ICU bed? 

She was told before surgery she would need ICU, she has sarcoidosis and the surgery was to get a problematic lap-band removed. I think they believed she would need a ventilator in ICU to keep her oxygen levels up due to the sarcoidosis but apparently it wasn’t necessary.  Thank god.

[gmr548 16513]

 
This is being discussed in the DT thread, and given some of the data provided by [mention=2017]Nice Guy Eddie[/mention] on that thread, it appears to be driven by service area Q numbers, which includes Harris and 8 surrounding counties. 
NGE, do you have thoughts as to why that region appears to go from negative slope for hospitalization to positive slope abruptly in June, a trend not apparent in any other region. The front end of that inflection seems too early to be driven solely by protests. The lack of similar inflections in other population centers suggests that reopening is not solely responsible. Any thoughts?

The region has a very high concentration of aggy. As we know, these folks are generally mouthbreathers, which results in a higher rate of transmission. They are less likely to wear masks and more likely to exhibit high BMI, beetus, etc. #science

[gmr548 16513]

So y'all are telling me Houston is cool and unincorporated Harris County is basically the Walking Dead? 

Did people not already operate under this assumption pre covid?

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

Glad she is recovering Hugo. Hopefully all will go well for her.

 

[wildcat09 29256]

Just now, gmr548 said:

12 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

So y'all are telling me Houston is cool and unincorporated Harris County is basically the Walking Dead? 

Did people not already operate under this assumption pre covid?

I certainly did.

[Biff Tannen 45495]

1 hour ago, gyroprotagonist said:

But I see people wearing masks while driving and i don't think they are Uber/Lyft drivers.  I don't get that.

There is widespread misinformation and misunderstanding about why/when/where masked should be used.  Some people are overly cautious (masked while driving) and some people don't give a fuck.  If only there had been some centralized and coordinated effort to educate people and have consistent rules in place.  Oh well.

[InkaUtexas 25518]

Went to pick up coffee for the team today at a local place. I know the owners and they are doing their best to take care of the staff. 

Kiddo went with me. Place was packed, we were the only two in masks. The COVID hovered in the air mixed with the dank smell of good tobacco and crappy weed. 

Was going to get Tacos for the group but saw how people were dealing with the salsa and said oh fuck no. But there was a good display of Bobcat's in their yoga pants. 

[Biff Tannen 45495]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

But there was a good display of Bobcat's in their yoga pants. 

[justhookit 4180]

3 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

I've yet to go there, I'll have to check it out next time I'm down. Do they have the same kareoke set up as Lovett's? 

No. That’s all moved to Salty Dog and the Tiki Room at Giggity’s 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

11 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Something is weird with Harris County, but not Houston proper. Look at the daily case counts. Houston has remained (relatively) steady with a spike here and there. But when you look at the county as a whole, there's a huge, huge spike on June 3rd with 336 cases, where the previous high was around 100. And it's remained higher than normal even after 6/3. 

https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus

I can't seem to find a way to see that particular day by county to try to figure it out, though.

According to KLTV, regarding Panola County:

Judge Lee Ann Jones reported on Tuesday, June 2, the county numbers rose to 240 cases of COVID-19 (previous day was 199). Many of these cases came from nursing homes following the Governors orders to test every nursing home.

Gregg County had a similar bump right at the end of May and beginning of June. I wonder if some of the bump in new cases we are seeing is from nursing home tests making it through the system? If so, they should settle back down. I know one of my grandparent's caretakers got sick a couple or three weeks ago and it took a week and a half to get results back. We got tested last week because both our 8 month old and my wife came down with a fever within a day of each other, and we were told it could take two days to get results, or it could take two weeks. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if the bump is from people not even attempting to follow guidelines when out and about.

[TexArcher 37518]

AAS reporting 118 new confirmed cases in Travis County today.  Previous daily record was 88 new cases on 6/1.

Probably not a big deal.  Everybody back to your cubicles.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by TexArcher

[Planet Houston 4923]

The family and I rented a house in Galveston for the week as our summer vacation this year. I have great news - COVID does not exist here! Apparently it can’t get onto the island.

Seriously though - I’ve gone to the small local grocery store twice and both times I was the single only person in there wearing a mask. It blows my mind that people are so lazy/dismissive/“proud”/dumb. 

[justhookit 4180]

15 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

AAS reporting 118 new confirmed cases in Travis County today.  Previous daily record was 88 new cases on 6/1.

Probably not a big deal.  Everybody back to your cubicles.

 

 

It’s also a Monday.  Again.

Seriously it’s been discussed at length on the DT thread, and surprisingly not in a political way, but did anyone not expect cases to go up after “re-opening”? This isn’t rocket surgery. We will know a lot more in about 2 weeks when we are Italy but seeing either a flat upward trend or a spike. In the meantime pull your panties out of your ass.

 

[pyrohornIII 4809]

1 hour ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

According to KLTV, regarding Panola County:

Judge Lee Ann Jones reported on Tuesday, June 2, the county numbers rose to 240 cases of COVID-19 (previous day was 199). Many of these cases came from nursing homes following the Governors orders to test every nursing home.

Gregg County had a similar bump right at the end of May and beginning of June. I wonder if some of the bump in new cases we are seeing is from nursing home tests making it through the system? If so, they should settle back down. I know one of my grandparent's caretakers got sick a couple or three weeks ago and it took a week and a half to get results back. We got tested last week because both our 8 month old and my wife came down with a fever within a day of each other, and we were told it could take two days to get results, or it could take two weeks. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if the bump is from people not even attempting to follow guidelines when out and about.

I would think the state officials would be explaining it this way, if indeed it was the nursing home testing driving the numbers up.  

[justhookit 4180]

11 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

The family and I rented a house in Galveston for the week as our summer vacation this year. I have great news - COVID does not exist here! Apparently it can’t get onto the island.

Seriously though - I’ve gone to the small local grocery store twice and both times I was the single only person in there wearing a mask. It blows my mind that people are so lazy/dismissive/“proud”/dumb. 

These lazy/dismissive/proud/dumb people are tourists. Like yourself.

[Planet Houston 4923]

19 minutes ago, justhookit said:

These lazy/dismissive/proud/dumb people are tourists. Like yourself.

And? Does that mean it’s OK they’re not wearing masks? Cause I sure as fuck am. 

[justhookit 4180]

3 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

And? Does that mean it’s OK they’re not wearing masks? Cause I sure as fuck am. 

No, point is your problem is with tourists. And if you have a problem with that you shouldn’t have left Houston. You are part of the problem only you don’t get it. Don’t go complaining about non- mask wearing when all the locals in Galveston have seen people coming down and not wearing a mask and eventually said fuck this. If they aren’t doing it than I’m not either.

if you are making a general complaint that nobody is wearing a mask, I’m telling you it’s the people that are traveling and treating this as a vacation. Which you are doing. Go home.

[tx 3 putt 76386]

Did Patrick say Texas wasn’t shutting down a second time ?

if so, why bother posting results ?

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

I can understand people not wanting to wear a mask at the grocery store in rural counties in the middle of BFE with only a handful of cases. I live outside of a smaller city, but if I need to grab something quick the small town in a county with few cases is the closest option. I still wear a mask, but i pretty much expect to be the only one. But somewhere like Port A, Galveston, or even Concan where you have a constant stream of folks from the city coming? Y'all are gonna get the virus, as my three year old likes to say.

[bernorange 8348]

20 hours ago, gyroprotagonist said:

... I see people wearing masks while driving and i don't think they are Uber/Lyft drivers.  I don't get that. ...

 

18 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

There is widespread misinformation and misunderstanding about why/when/where masked should be used.  Some people are overly cautious (masked while driving) ...

Say you have to run 3 errands.  You get to your first stop and put on your mask.  Business done, you hop in your car to go to stop number two.  Do you take your mask off for the trip and put it back on when you get to stop #2 (and repeat for stop #3), or just leave it alone until you finish all your errands?  You aren't supposed to be constantly touching and fidgeting with the masks (unless you are hand sanitizing after every touch).

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

The mask primarily helps those around you in case you have the virus and don't know. Touching it to take it on and off probably doesn't reduce it's efficacy in that regard. If you are personally worried about catching the rona, then by all means leave it on.

[Planet Houston 4923]

6 hours ago, justhookit said:

No, point is your problem is with tourists. And if you have a problem with that you shouldn’t have left Houston. You are part of the problem only you don’t get it. Don’t go complaining about non- mask wearing when all the locals in Galveston have seen people coming down and not wearing a mask and eventually said fuck this. If they aren’t doing it than I’m not either.

if you are making a general complaint that nobody is wearing a mask, I’m telling you it’s the people that are traveling and treating this as a vacation. Which you are doing. Go home.

I can promise you that I encountered plenty of locals (we aren’t in Pirate’s) and there is no chance any of them ever considered wearing a mask. And if my family is practicing reasonable social distancing and mitigation measures, you think we should jury stay holed up at home until there is a vaccine? Is that your solution? Good luck with that. I’m sure you’ll be practicing exactly what you preach. 

[BradInATX 9208]

8 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

According to KLTV, regarding Panola County:

Judge Lee Ann Jones reported on Tuesday, June 2, the county numbers rose to 240 cases of COVID-19 (previous day was 199). Many of these cases came from nursing homes following the Governors orders to test every nursing home.

Gregg County had a similar bump right at the end of May and beginning of June. I wonder if some of the bump in new cases we are seeing is from nursing home tests making it through the system? If so, they should settle back down. I know one of my grandparent's caretakers got sick a couple or three weeks ago and it took a week and a half to get results back. We got tested last week because both our 8 month old and my wife came down with a fever within a day of each other, and we were told it could take two days to get results, or it could take two weeks. But I wouldn't be surprised at all if the bump is from people not even attempting to follow guidelines when out and about.

Hmm. Maybe so, but that's weird and speaks to the inconsistency across data sources. The site I was looking at showed that they had almost 400 new cases, which was +200 or so. 

Hard to get a handle on things when the data being reported is so wonky.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4968]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Hmm. Maybe so, but that's weird and speaks to the inconsistency across data sources. The site I was looking at showed that they had almost 400 new cases, which was +200 or so. 

Hard to get a handle on things when the data being reported is so wonky.

Yeah, it's definitely hard to figure out what exactly is going on, but I was just throwing that out there as a possible ray of hope.

[Anastasis 23395]

8 hours ago, TexArcher said:

AAS reporting 118 new confirmed cases in Travis County today.  Previous daily record was 88 new cases on 6/1.

Probably not a big deal.  Everybody back to your cubicles.

 

This seems like it sucks. 

Mix up a baseline trend related to reopening, the tail end of memorial day weekend cases, and front end of a potential trend related to mass protests and wala. We are squarely at the front end of the onset of symptoms window for exposures occurring the during the protests. Protests in Austin started approximately May 30 with the protest outside the police station downtown, and carried through this Sunday June 7. If we see a significant change in the slope this week, continuing through next Wednesday or so, I think that is will be reasonable to suggest that the uptick is substantially related to mass gatherings. Will be interesting to compare to trends in other locations.    

Edited June 9, 2020 by Anastasis

[Rougarou 594]

In Dallas no new deaths and the speculation is that the uptick in cases was because of ramped up testing in nursing homes and generally.

Tests seem readily available at every CVS across the metroplex now...

Clay Jenkins

 

✔@JudgeClayJ

 

 

.@DCHHS reports 254 cases. Today’s numbers are a slight decrease from yesterday. We’re hopeful that the increase that we saw over the last few days was due to population testing in nursing homes and other factors and not the beginning of a spike in cases.

Edited June 9, 2020 by Rougarou

[Anastasis 23395]

6 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

In Dallas no new deaths and the speculation is that the uptick in cases was because of ramped up testing in nursing homes and generally.

Tests seem readily available at every CVS across the metroplex now...

Clay Jenkins

 

✔@JudgeClayJ

 

 

.@DCHHS reports 254 cases. Today’s numbers are a slight decrease from yesterday. We’re hopeful that the increase that we saw over the last few days was due to population testing in nursing homes and other factors and not the beginning of a spike in cases.

We're hopeful?  Doesn't he have access to this information? Seems pretty straightforward.  Was this person or were they not a resident in a nursing home at the time of testing?

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

This seems like it sucks. 

Mix up a baseline trend related to reopening, the tail end of memorial day weekend cases, and front end of a potential trend related to mass protests and wala. We are squarely at the front end of the onset of symptoms window for exposures occurring the during the protests. Protests in Austin started approximately May 30 with the protest outside the police station downtown, and carried through this Sunday June 7. If we see a significant change in the slope this week, continuing through next Wednesday or so, I think that is will be reasonable to suggest that the uptick is substantially related to mass gatherings. Will be interesting to compare to trends in other locations.    

I mean some people will definitely ascribe it to that because it fits an agenda. Who knows. Most of the data has shown that it's hard to catch outdoors, especially in heat, but those protests were really close quarters.

More reason why we need better data collection. We could probably figure it out if we got age, race, and zip code reported out from the hospitals and testing sites. But in true Surly fashion we're just going to yell at each other and assume we know the real answers without any real information to support our case.

[Anastasis 23395]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Who knows.

We could probably figure it out if we got age, race, and zip code reported out from the hospitals and testing sites.

Travis county reports all of these data, although I am not sure if the zip is testing location or zip code of residence.  I assume the latter.

[Rougarou 594]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

We're hopeful?  Doesn't he have access to this information? Seems pretty straightforward.  Was this person or were they not a resident in a nursing home at the time of testing?

Nobody knows what's going on until after this is over and we can data mine and tell the story backwards.

As of now, just do your best. I'm comfortable again doing things. Went to Lifetime fitness, took the kids to the community pool, we've been eating out in restaurants again and we are planning a summer vacation. We will wear masks where appropriate (like when getting a hair cut or indoors where ventilation is poor or we might have to be within 10 feet of someone, but otherwise it looks like we might be alright if we can get a vaccine by the Chinese New Year.

[WBT 20422]

8 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I mean some people will definitely ascribe it to that because it fits an agenda.

Won't someone think of the contact tracers?!?

[BradInATX 9208]

20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Travis county reports all of these data, although I am not sure if the zip is testing location or zip code of residence.  I assume the latter.

They don't report it trended though. So someone would have to capture it daily and create their own trends, and look for an abnormal uptick in cases for younger folks. Not it. 

Edited June 9, 2020 by BradInATX

[GRHorn 105]

37 minutes ago, Rougarou said:

Nobody knows what's going on until after this is over and we can data mine and tell the story backwards.

As of now, just do your best. I'm comfortable again doing things. Went to Lifetime fitness, took the kids to the community pool, we've been eating out in restaurants again and we are planning a summer vacation. We will wear masks where appropriate (like when getting a hair cut or indoors where ventilation is poor or we might have to be within 10 feet of someone, but otherwise it looks like we might be alright if we can get a vaccine by the Chinese New Year.

This is all good, except for the vaccine talk. People need to stop holding out hope for a highly effective vaccine, much less so soon. 

[GRHorn 105]

21 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

She was told before surgery she would need ICU, she has sarcoidosis and the surgery was to get a problematic lap-band removed. I think they believed she would need a ventilator in ICU to keep her oxygen levels up due to the sarcoidosis but apparently it wasn’t necessary.  Thank god.

A lot of times surgeons try to manage expectations by telling you the worst thatcan happen, it’s gonna be a really difficult surgery, you might need to go to icu on vent afterwards. Then they do it and come out to waiting room and say, guess what I nailed it. She did great etc. 

[Brisketexan 104624]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

This seems like it sucks. 

Mix up a baseline trend related to reopening, the tail end of memorial day weekend cases, and front end of a potential trend related to mass protests and wala. We are squarely at the front end of the onset of symptoms window for exposures occurring the during the protests. Protests in Austin started approximately May 30 with the protest outside the police station downtown, and carried through this Sunday June 7. If we see a significant change in the slope this week, continuing through next Wednesday or so, I think that is will be reasonable to suggest that the uptick is substantially related to mass gatherings. Will be interesting to compare to trends in other locations.    

Yeah....time will tell.  That said, per Austin public health, they recommend that anyone at a march get tested.  We were there on Sunday for several hours.  Now, we wore masks (pretty much everyone did), we weren't close to anyone else for any significant period of time, and sweet lord it was hot as hell.  So, I think the transmission risks were pretty low.  But, that said....our family of four is doing the drive-through Covid test on Saturday.  That will be fun.

[elfenix 34171]

1 hour ago, GRHorn said:

A lot of times surgeons try to manage expectations by telling you the worst thatcan happen, it’s gonna be a really difficult surgery, you might need to go to icu on vent afterwards. Then they do it and come out to waiting room and say, guess what I nailed it. She did great etc. 

[elfenix 34171]

On 6/4/2020 at 8:38 AM, BrazilHorn said:

The notion of an uptick in cases being a "bad" thing is what is being inaccurately reported. It really does all matter if those cases end up in hospitalizations. As number of tests increase the absolute number of positives will as well. However if they are all asymptomatic that won't impact the health care system. The entire notion of "Shelter-in-place" is not to keep us from getting CV19 it is to keep us all from getting it at the exact same time and flooding the hospitals. We are all going to get it as no one has immunity built up to the strain. The real challenge is that America is full of fat people (I think I read 10% of US is >40 BMI) which is labeled "Extremely obese". Now I agree that the BMI chart can be off in some cases (mine eg I am 6'3" 208, labeled obese via BMI but I am very fit, workout daily etc) but CV has shown absolutely that if you are overweight it will run through and there are a lot of fatties in the US. Why the news doesn't report hospitalizations is beyond me (especially hospitalizations as a % of total positive cases)

i want to push back on this.  with appropriate measures (SiP, mask wearing, distancing, hygiene, isolate, quarantine, contact trace), not only do you reduce the number of people hitting hospitals at any one time but also reduce the number of people who get it. 

this page does a pretty good job of explaining how this stuff works:

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Edited June 9, 2020 by elfenix