Texas Re-Opening Announced

[yoladu 4191]

On 6/8/2020 at 11:06 AM, gyroprotagonist said:

But I see people wearing masks while driving and i don't think they are Uber/Lyft drivers.  I don't get that.

 

I catch myself wearing my mask in the car. It's basically just a place to keep it while on my way to an errand.

It's almost like wearing a hat in the car. Do i need to do that? no, but i am going to want that hat on later when i am out of the car.

[yoladu 4191]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

A lot of times surgeons try to manage expectations by telling you the worst that can happen, it’s gonna be a really difficult surgery, you might need to go to icu on vent afterwards. Then they do it and come out to waiting room and say, guess what I nailed it. She did great etc. 

So a doctor is no different than a hostess at Chuy's 😀

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by yoladu

[gmr548 16701]

Nobody knows what's going on until after this is over and we can data mine and tell the story backwards.
As of now, just do your best. I'm comfortable again doing things. Went to Lifetime fitness, took the kids to the community pool, we've been eating out in restaurants again and we are planning a summer vacation. We will wear masks where appropriate (like when getting a hair cut or indoors where ventilation is poor or we might have to be within 10 feet of someone, but otherwise it looks like we might be alright if we can get a vaccine by the Chinese New Year.

The toughest part of covid for me has been adapting to not having weight room access, but man, I'm not going back to the gym any time soon. What's come to light about this virus says a gym is basically the ideal place to get it. I guess you could be first in the building at 5am or whatever and be fine if there's no rush then, but I'm good on the 5am thing.

Side note - was at LA fitness for years and generally satisfied. Better facility than 24 or planet fitness or whatever but doesn't cost a ridiculous amount of money like lifetime. When trying to cancel your membership you can't do it over the phone or online... you have to do it by mail. Kinda shitty/shady in 2020. Will be looking elsewhere when gym time finally comes. Or maybe just renting a place with an extra bedroom or garage for a home gym when the lease is up.

[Rougarou 594]

Just now, gmr548 said:

The toughest part of covid for me has been adapting to not having weight room access, but man, I'm not going back to the gym any time soon. What's come to light about this virus says a gym is basically the ideal place to get it. I guess you could be first in the building at 5am or whatever and be fine if there's no rush then, but I'm good on the 5am thing.

Side note - was at LA fitness for years and generally satisfied. Better facility than 24 or planet fitness or whatever but doesn't cost a ridiculous amount of money like lifetime. When trying to cancel your membership you can't do it over the phone or online... you have to do it by mail. Kinda shitty/shady in 2020. Will be looking elsewhere when gym time finally comes. Or maybe just renting a place with an extra bedroom or garage for a home gym when the lease is up.

As a benefit my work offers: https://www.gympass.com/us where you can pick and choose a network of gyms. This has been rad. Even if it's not free for you from work, it's only $39 a month for LifetimeFitness, previously I was paying $150/mo for LifeTime only access...maybe this should go to the gym thread.

[BrazilHorn 6844]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

i want to push back on this.  with appropriate measures (SiP, mask wearing, distancing, hygiene, isolate, quarantine, contact trace), not only do you reduce the number of people hitting hospitals at any one time but also reduce the number of people who get it. 

this page does a pretty good job of explaining how this stuff works:

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

Those are highly scenario based models based on exactly how it is not happening here in the US. Full scale contact tracing eg or repeated shut downs don't appear to be method that US is planning on going.

Also the protests have completely blown doors off all methodologies and people are in closer contact than in months. Will be interesting to see where it goes from here.

[Sii 6]

I’m not advocating we still be locked down or people have to stay In their house but people in this area have just gotten stupid and decided covid doesn’t exist anymore. I fear the second wave will suck worse than it should have with everyone running out and going full bore already.

I go out and do some things but large crowds and popular public spots I can wait on outside the grocery store. The people who have decided masks need to go already piss me off.

Even in a small little area like Gruene I saw today a few restaurants had to close for clean up as had a employee test positive

[Wanker Bob 379]

Quote

I'm not an expert on government reporting so if I'm making a mistake here let me know but that 2nd CDC link put has pneumonia Texas deaths at 4976 through May 29

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

while this one I found (click download data csv at bottom) has the total YEARLY pneumonia deaths for Texas as:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3516

2017 - 2954

2016 - 2860

2015 - 3214

2014 - 3452

Just in case anyone is interested the pneumonia as the primary cause of death numbers for Texas that were at 4976 for the year as of May 29 are now at 5552 as of reporting date June 9. So an increase of 576 deaths where pneumonia is listed as the primary cause in an 11 day span of late May and early June when there's been no school in 3 months and cold/flu is out of season and mostly gone. 

Just sayin'

[tantric superman 4668]

Wife is making reservations for round trip flight to California next month.

Nice knowing you all.

[Brisketexan 106898]

15 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Wife is making reservations for round trip flight to California next month.

Nice knowing you all.

We're doing the same -- direct to and from LAX over the week after July 4th.  Calculated risk.  We'll be heavy on masks and sanitizer.  When we get there, we'll be at a beach hotel, but can limit our contact mostly to family.  But there you go.

[mchookem 16765]

mask report today: both HEB Far West and TJ's downtown are pretty much >99% masks, staff and customers. and TJ's is still controlling entry numbers. 

[justhookit 4206]

47 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Just in case anyone is interested the pneumonia as the primary cause of death numbers for Texas that were at 4976 for the year as of May 29 are now at 5552 as of reporting date June 9. So an increase of 576 deaths where pneumonia is listed as the primary cause in an 11 day span of late May and early June when there's been no school in 3 months and cold/flu is out of season and mostly gone. 

Just sayin'

What are you saying? Because you may want to re-think the conclusion you are trying to reach. Again, from your CDC link

Quote

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death

 

[InkaUtexas 26885]

1 hour ago, Sii said:

Even in a small little area like Gruene I saw today a few restaurants had to close for clean up as had a employee test positive

We have three closures in 24 hours in San Marcos. A good restaurant, a bar/club and a yogurt place. 

I think less than 20% of the population are wearing a mask. I do not worry about me or the kiddo since we do not have to go out. I do worry about a close friend who is deemed essential and is forced to deal with vulnerable population everyday all day. 

[MidTexHorn 822]

Just booked a trip to Vegas for early August - free rooms at Caesars and free non-stop flights on Southwest suckered me in. Still working on convincing the wife that this is a good idea. Hell, still working on convincing myself its a good idea. I have two months to change my mind.

[Rougarou 594]

1 hour ago, Sii said:

I’m not advocating we still be locked down or people have to stay In their house but people in this area have just gotten stupid and decided covid doesn’t exist anymore. I fear the second wave will suck worse than it should have with everyone running out and going full bore already.

I go out and do some things but large crowds and popular public spots I can wait on outside the grocery store. The people who have decided masks need to go already piss me off.

Even in a small little area like Gruene I saw today a few restaurants had to close for clean up as had a employee test positive

Regarding your wave 2 comments, I read this earlier today and thought it was impactful. We have had professionals and people go on TV and say it's okay to protest (from the perspective of covid) or that the risks of covid are outweighed by the purpose of the protests (Debatable), but now that the professionals have done this we are faced with an interesting prospect for the wave 2, if it happens or not. To quote:

My point isn’t that we shouldn’t do anything or that reforms are unnecessary. And it’s certainly not that the protesters don’t have good reasons to protest.  My point is that the excuse these epidemiologists are using to justify their about-face makes no sense practically. They are taking a sledgehammer to their own credibility by saying it’s okay to violate the rules they established, as long as you do it for causes they care about but not for causes you care about. You’re free to argue that their causes are more important or worthy than your causes—and you might be right—but that’s utterly irrelevant to the damage they’re doing.

What next?

Meanwhile, if we have a huge spike in cases because of these protests, will they say, “Well, it was worth it to end racism”? Maybe, except they won’t have ended racism. Sure, some will plausibly argue that any COVID-19 comeback was the result of evil Republicans reopening the churches and the barber shops. But that will be dismissed for the partisan hogwash and special pleading it will be.

And, if we don’t see a huge spike in COVID-19 cases after all of this, no one will believe the experts when we head into the fall (when it’s supposed to come back) and they say now we really mean it. So we’ll still have an intolerable amount of racism—at least according to the people who say we have an intolerable amount of racism today—and we’ll have another economy-crushing outbreak on our hands.

And, if—God willing—it doesn’t come back strong in the fall, well, no one will ever take these people seriously again, and for understandable reasons.

[Wanker Bob 379]

39 minutes ago, justhookit said:

What are you saying? Because you may want to re-think the conclusion you are trying to reach. Again, from your CDC link

 

Yeah, that's why I said reporting date June 9. That doesn't mean the numbers are directly up to June 9. This isn't star trek. Besides, cold/flu season ended over a couple of months ago. 

So we may just be seeing the numbers from the opening in may starting to really hit the data now due to the lag. 

And I don't care what you think about it. Im keeping a running log from May 29 onward about every 10 days to see what the numbers do. I'll post them for whoever is interested. 

Just sayin'

[justhookit 4206]

2 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Yeah, that's why I said reporting date June 9. That doesn't mean the numbers are directly up to June 9. This isn't star trek. Besides, cold/flu season ended over a couple of months ago. 

So we may just be seeing the numbers from the opening in may starting to really hit the data now due to the lag. 

And I don't care what you think about it. Im keeping a running log from May 29 onward about every 10 days to see what the numbers do. I'll post them for whoever is interested. 

Just sayin'

 

I have no problem with your running log and posting those numbers. But when you add this

Quote

where pneumonia is listed as the primary cause in an 11 day span of late May and early June when there's been no school in 3 months and cold/flu is out of season and mostly gone.

You are trying to imply that there have been 596 pneumonia deaths in that period. You’re being disingenuous at best.

[bolverk 30323]

25 minutes ago, justhookit said:

 

I have no problem with your running log and posting those numbers. But when you add this

You are trying to imply that there have been 596 pneumonia deaths in that period. You’re being disingenuous at best.

Yeah, I think that's worth calling out as it implies those deaths occurred during his specified timeframe.

[Wanker Bob 379]

33 minutes ago, justhookit said:

 

I have no problem with your running log and posting those numbers. But when you add this

You are trying to imply that there have been 596 pneumonia deaths in that period. You’re being disingenuous at best.

I worded that incorrectly. But let's say there was a 4-6 week lag and I started looking at the numbers on May 29. Flu season was over and kids still hadn't been in school for over a month. 

Will be interested to see where the numbers go. Again, just going to post the numbers about every 10 days so I'm not going to argue with you or anyone else about it again. 

Just sayin'

Edited June 9, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Anastasis 23718]

 

9 hours ago, Anastasis said:

We are squarely at the front end of the onset of symptoms window for exposures occurring the during the protests. Protests in Austin started approximately May 30 with the protest outside the police station downtown, and carried through this Sunday June 7. If we see a significant change in the slope this week, continuing through next Wednesday or so, I think that is will be reasonable to suggest that the uptick is substantially related to mass gatherings. Will be interesting to compare to trends in other locations. 

 

 

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....time will tell.  That said, per Austin public health, they recommend that anyone at a march get tested.  We were there on Sunday for several hours.  Now, we wore masks (pretty much everyone did), we weren't close to anyone else for any significant period of time, and sweet lord it was hot as hell.  So, I think the transmission risks were pretty low.  But, that said....our family of four is doing the drive-through Covid test on Saturday.  That will be fun.

Yeah, I think I'd go ahead and get that test brisket.

 

 

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Anastasis

[HenryJames 67361]

 

[Francisco 2.0 32590]

 

 

[Gatorubet 30717]

11 hours ago, GRHorn said:

A lot of times surgeons try to manage expectations by telling you the worst thatcan happen, it’s gonna be a really difficult surgery, you might need to go to icu on vent afterwards. Then they do it and come out to waiting room and say, guess what I nailed it. She did great etc. 

[Pig Bellmont 8886]

11 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

The tweet was from last night - so that’s today’s headline 

Edited June 10, 2020 by Pig Bellmont

[TwiceHorn 32079]

Not liking these trends.

[elfenix 34749]

And protesters haven't even started getting hospitalized for covid yet

[Pig Bellmont 8886]

Just now, elfenix said:

And protesters haven't even started getting hospitalized for covid yet

Yup- there’s a bigger wave coming, but it feels like several states are done with being responsible. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

This is a slow motion catastrophe almost entirely due to negligence of leadership. The unknown is the severity of the consequences. 

[BrazilHorn 6844]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is a slow motion catastrophe almost entirely due to negligence of leadership. The unknown is the severity of the consequences. 

I don't think that's fully fair. Had protests never occurred and this was all just due to reopening etc perhaps. Not sure if you have seen the picture from Austin yesterday where thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder. I fully support and endorse the protests (and I guess can conceptually agree that police brutality is due to negligence in leadership if that is point you're making).

Hospitalizations for me are key and now they are rising. They will continue to rise I'd imagine as all of these people gather together in mass demonstrations across the state.

 

[Captainant 28538]

1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I don't think that's fully fair. Had protests never occurred and this was all just due to reopening etc perhaps. Not sure if you have seen the picture from Austin yesterday where thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder. I fully support and endorse the protests (and I guess can conceptually agree that police brutality is due to negligence in leadership if that is point you're making).

Hospitalizations for me are key and now they are rising. They will continue to rise I'd imagine as all of these people gather together in mass demonstrations across the state.

The rise we're seeing right now is not from the protests, those were too recent. This is the Memorial Day opening weekend bump. I'd bet we'll ramp up even harder in a week to week and a half.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

8 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

don't think that's fully fair. Had protests never occurred and this was all just due to reopening etc perhaps.

You did consider the protest occurred due to negligence of leadership. So you get it.

Edited June 10, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[BradInATX 9208]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I don't think that's fully fair. Had protests never occurred and this was all just due to reopening etc perhaps. Not sure if you have seen the picture from Austin yesterday where thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder. I fully support and endorse the protests (and I guess can conceptually agree that police brutality is due to negligence in leadership if that is point you're making).

Hospitalizations for me are key and now they are rising. They will continue to rise I'd imagine as all of these people gather together in mass demonstrations across the state.

 

I'm probably not going to get into as much partisan finger pointing as the rest (liberals will blame Abbott, conservatives will blame BLM), but I think at this point it's extraordinarily unlikely that the protests have anything to do with the rising hospitalizations. 

- Time to hospitalization averages around 10 days, plus some lag time in reporting. The very first protests in Texas were just 10 days ago.
- The majority of people at those protests are in low risk demographics. Young and generally healthier and in better shape than the average population.

I think it's very likely that we're going to see a spike in cases from the protests (in fact, the huge spike over the last two days might be related). But I think it's misinformed to try to assign blame to the rallies for the hospitalizations.

[BrazilHorn 6844]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I'm probably not going to get into as much partisan finger pointing as the rest (liberals will blame Abbott, conservatives will blame BLM), but I think at this point it's extraordinarily unlikely that the protests have anything to do with the rising hospitalizations. 

- Time to hospitalization averages around 10 days, plus some lag time in reporting. The very first protests in Texas were just 10 days ago.
- The majority of people at those protests are in low risk demographics. Young and generally healthier and in better shape than the average population.

I think it's very likely that we're going to see a spike in cases from the protests (in fact, the huge spike over the last two days might be related). But I think it's misinformed to try to assign blame to the rallies for the hospitalizations.

Don't disagree re: timing. But as cases spike if hospitalizations follow trend they should increase as a % as well. You could argue age of protestors skews younger so perhaps it won't in this case. Regardless will be very interesting study in what happens when a "full" re-opening occurs.

The cat is out of the bag with protests in terms of people coming together. Especially given fact that they are happening in nearly every city in Texas. Will be an interesting analytics exercise coming out of all this.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

The protesters are going to get blamed regardless which is ironic considering the leadership in this country did the exact opposite of what you’re supposed to do to quell civil unrest.  
 

Again, negligence of leadership is ultimately responsible here going back to January when the virus was downplayed and dismissed.

[BradInATX 9208]

18 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Don't disagree re: timing. But as cases spike if hospitalizations follow trend they should increase as a % as well. You could argue age of protestors skews younger so perhaps it won't in this case. Regardless will be very interesting study in what happens when a "full" re-opening occurs.

The cat is out of the bag with protests in terms of people coming together. Especially given fact that they are happening in nearly every city in Texas. Will be an interesting analytics exercise coming out of all this.

I just did some really quick and ugly math.

Since 5-29 (around when protests started), Texas is up 355 hospitalizations total. The biggest risers are Houston (+215), Dallas (+80), Galveston (+32), and the RGV (+30). Austin, which has been the epicenter of Texas protests, is actually down three hospitalizations in that time. I wouldn't put this in client work without digging further, but I think an initial glance would lead one to be very skeptical that the rises have anything to do with the protests. If they did, you'd almost definitely see Austin with big increases.

Beyond that, you'd also see case rates in the places with protests rising at a rate faster than the rest of the state. Looking at case count increases by county on a per capita basis, you have to go all the way down to #22 in the counties with the fastest growing case rate to see a major city that had protests. In fact, Walker County (Huntsville and the prison) have more new cases amongst 71,000 people than Travis County has had amongst its 1.2 million since the protesting began.

Here are the top ten growing counties since the protests began. The formatting is janky but it's county, new cases since protests began, population, new cases per capita, and what I know about that county. Anyone have any insight into why these counties are growing so fast?

Jones	282	19891	1.42%	bum fuck
Walker	999	71539	1.40%	prison
Moore	262	21801	1.20%	bum fuck
Grimes	131	27630	0.47%	bum fuck
Parmer	43	9852	0.44%	bum fuck
Houston	100	22955	0.44%	bum fuck
Potter	487	120899	0.40%	abilene
Medina	145	49334	0.29%	SA exurbs

 

 

For reference:

Dallas

2760

2586552

0.11%

Harris

3148

4602523

0.07%

 

Travis

691

1203166

0.06%

 

 

So the major cities with the protests are actually on the lower end of cities with rapidly increasing Covid rates. That would tend to point towards the protests not showing up in the numbers.

Yet, anyway.

Edited June 10, 2020 by BradInATX

[BrazilHorn 6844]

This would make argument it seems that increase in bum fuck areas is due to more readily available testing vs necessarily any reopening mechanics. I would imagine that people living in small towns etc haven't been as "shut down" as those in major metro areas.

We have seen a jump up in Travis County yesterday in hospitalizations but it is still only slightly above 7 day moving average.

To me that is the metric to really follow as that is one that impacts health care system. The protests to me is the wildcard as who knows if folks from them that were exposed have even started to demonstrate symptoms as of yet due to incubation period of virus. These protests are a massive variable as they are absolutely accelerating the broader "re-opening" that was occurring.

 

[Anastasis 23718]

15 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I'm probably not going to get into as much partisan finger pointing as the rest (liberals will blame Abbott, conservatives will blame BLM), but I think at this point it's extraordinarily unlikely that the protests have anything to do with the rising hospitalizations. 

- Time to hospitalization averages around 10 days, plus some lag time in reporting. The very first protests in Texas were just 10 days ago.
- The majority of people at those protests are in low risk demographics. Young and generally healthier and in better shape than the average population.

I think it's very likely that we're going to see a spike in cases from the protests (in fact, the huge spike over the last two days might be related). But I think it's misinformed to try to assign blame to the rallies for the hospitalizations.

I think that what we are seeing is a combination of baseline trend related to reopening, the tail end of memorial day weekend cases, and the front end of protest cases.  I don't think that you can rule out the contribution of spread at protests as a contributor.  Median incubation time ~4 days, median time from onset of symptoms to hospitalization ~ 2 days (from China data fwiw). The case counts are clearly impacted by protests that have been ramping up over the last two weeks. The spike is notable and the timeframe fits. Will be interesting to see how the next 7-10 days of data play out.

I do not like the way the case data in travis country in particular are trending. Hopefully you are right and the demographics of those attending the protests blunt some of the hospitalizations from materializing.

[bolverk 30323]

12 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I just did some really quick and ugly math.

Since 5-29 (around when protests started), Texas is up 355 hospitalizations total. The biggest risers are Houston (+215), Dallas (+80), Galveston (+32), and the RGV (+30). Austin, which has been the epicenter of Texas protests, is actually down three hospitalizations in that time. I wouldn't put this in client work without digging further, but I think an initial glance would lead one to be very skeptical that the rises have anything to do with the protests. If they did, you'd almost definitely see Austin with big increases.

Beyond that, you'd also see case rates in the places with protests rising at a rate faster than the rest of the state. Looking at case count increases by county on a per capita basis, you have to go all the way down to #22 in the counties with the fastest growing case rate to see a major city that had protests. In fact, Walker County (Huntsville and the prison) have more new cases amongst 71,000 people than Travis County has had amongst its 1.2 million since the protesting began.

Here are the top ten growing counties since the protests began. The formatting is janky but it's county, new cases since protests began, population, new cases per capita, and what I know about that county. Anyone have any insight into why these counties are growing so fast?

Jones	282	19891	1.42%	bum fuck (PRISON)
Walker	999	71539	1.40%	prison
Moore	262	21801	1.20%	bum fuck (MEAT PROCESSING)
Grimes	131	27630	0.47%	bum fuck (AGGY)
Parmer	43	9852	0.44%	bum fuck (CATTLE)
Houston	100	22955	0.44%	bum fuck (PRISON?)
Potter	487	120899	0.40%	AMARILLO (PROCESSING)
Medina	145	49334	0.29%	SA exurbs

 

 

For reference:

Dallas

2760

2586552

0.11%

Harris

3148

4602523

0.07%

 

Travis

691

1203166

0.06%

 

 

So the major cities with the protests are actually on the lower end of cities with rapidly increasing Covid rates. That would tend to point towards the protests not showing up in the numbers.

Yet, anyway.

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by bolverk

[Anastasis 23718]

16 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

So the major cities with the protests are actually on the lower end of cities with rapidly increasing Covid rates. That would tend to point towards the protests not showing up in the numbers.

Most of those counties, as bolverk points out, are low population counties with a focal point for the transmissions. I wouldn't draw much out of that type of look at the data in the context of this particular discussion.  And Houston has had substantial protesting, so I would not dismiss them to focus on Austin.

I do think that you are right though that we should be watching trends in counties with large protests.  I have been capturing some caps off the NYT hotspot chart for a visual.

3 June, 8 June, 10 June in sequence.  Will be interesting to revisit in a week or so.  

 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Most of those counties, as bolverk points out, are low population counties with a focal point for the transmissions. I wouldn't draw much out of that type of look at the data in the context of this particular discussion.  And Houston has had substantial protesting, so I would not dismiss them to focus on Austin.

I do think that you are right though that we should be watching trends in counties with large protests.  I have been capturing some caps off the NYT hotspot chart for a visual.

3 June, 8 June, 10 June in sequence.  Will be interesting to revisit in a week or so.  

 

 

Austin's case growth since the protests started is below state average as a whole. How do you reconcile that given that we almost assuredly had the largest protests per capita?

I'm not saying it's not coming. I just struggle to get to the conclusion that it's happened already.

 

I'm staring to believe that a majority of cases can be traced to a handful of sources (indoor work facilities, prisons, church outbreaks etc.).

[Anastasis 23718]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Austin's case growth since the protests started is below state average as a whole. How do you reconcile that given that we almost assuredly had the largest protests per capita?
I'm not saying it's not coming. I just struggle to get to the conclusion that it's happened already.

Austin is one of the better regions of the state as far as mask wearing and social distancing practices, at least it was until we crammed 10s of thousands of people into protests. The case data strongly suggest a jump related to protests. I hope that there is actually something else going on and maybe it is memorial day.  Because if the trend we are seeing is related to the earliest protests, wait until we see what happens when the mass gatherings on Sunday work their way through the system. 

 

 

[Continental Op 3934]

19 hours ago, tantric superman said:

Wife is making reservations for round trip flight to California next month.

Nice knowing you all.

PM Junior Miller?  He can tell you how to deal with a wife who directly disobeys you.  

[BradInATX 9208]

Austin is one of the better regions of the state as far as mask wearing and social distancing practices, at least it was until we crammed 10s of thousands of people into protests. The case data strongly suggest a jump related to protests. I hope that there is actually something else going on and maybe it is memorial day.  Because if the trend we are seeing is related to the earliest protests, wait until we see what happens when the mass gatherings on Sunday work their way through the system. 

 
 

Yeah, the last two days could definitely be protest related. I've got my eye on that over the next little bit as well as the ratio of change in cases vs. hospitalizations. You could sort of (very unscientifically) back into some demographic assumptions if cases continue to go up and hospitalizations don't.

[Mrs Whiggins 13050]

In our area, there have been some cluster cases directly related to HS graduation parties. Friend that is a SBO that sells supplies related to things like that mentioned she had people driving in (she has curbside or walk-in with mask) to buy that mentioned these occasions specifically. I wouldn't care to speculate percentages of graduates whose families held gatherings, but to play around with some numbers: if one had a high school with 300 in the senior class and 25% held gatherings, that's 75 students. Let's say that 25 of those family groups completely ignored the guidelines. Even two to three families among that smaller group that contract and spread it among themselves begins to increase the numbers in the less populated counties. I'm pulling that out of thin air, but it doesn't seem THAT improbable.

[BrazilHorn 6844]

 

51 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Austin is one of the better regions of the state as far as mask wearing and social distancing practices, at least it was until we crammed 10s of thousands of people into protests. The case data strongly suggest a jump related to protests. I hope that there is actually something else going on and maybe it is memorial day.  Because if the trend we are seeing is related to the earliest protests, wait until we see what happens when the mass gatherings on Sunday work their way through the system. 

 
 

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Yeah, the last two days could definitely be protest related. I've got my eye on that over the next little bit as well as the ratio of change in cases vs. hospitalizations. You could sort of (very unscientifically) back into some demographic assumptions if cases continue to go up and hospitalizations don't.

Travis county tracks hospitalizations by ethnicity, so it will be interesting to see what happens in that regard. The protests in Austin have been very diverse however so I am not fully sure that one group more than another will stand out.

 

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[Mo Horn 8938]

I don't keep up with this thread as much as I do other ones, but it seems like our resident "everyone who doesn't want to open up are a bunch of pussys because it's perfectly safe" folks are suddenly absent. 

[gmr548 16701]

I don't keep up with this thread as much as I do other ones, but it seems like our resident "everyone who doesn't want to open up are a bunch of pussys because it's perfectly safe" folks are suddenly absent. 

They're out living their life, not being sheep, and impressively driving an increase in cases and hospitalizations from a respiratory virus that is likely seasonal to some degree in the middle of a Texas summer.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

 

Travis county tracks hospitalizations by ethnicity, so it will be interesting to see what happens in that regard. The protests in Austin have been very diverse however so I am not fully sure that one group more than another will stand out.

 

 

Nice, that's a good find. I haven't been able to find anything like that, showing trends of hospitalizations by race. What's the link to that?

In a scenario where protests are driving an increase I'd expect to see the black and white shares increase, for obvious reasons. That last data point on that chart looks like the last week of May (terrible labeling), which would be just after the murder. So your chart is a good baseline vs. what comes after.

[BrazilHorn 6844]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Nice, that's a good find. I haven't been able to find anything like that, showing trends of hospitalizations by race. What's the link to that?

In a scenario where protests are driving an increase I'd expect to see the black and white shares increase, for obvious reasons. That last data point on that chart looks like the last week of May (terrible labeling), which would be just after the murder. So your chart is a good baseline vs. what comes after.

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

You can toggle between hospitalization/icu/vent at aggregate level or by ethnicity

[Anastasis 23718]

Welp, it's not a blip in the data.  Looks like a strong trend setting in with the daily new case counts. 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13730]

Texas reporting 500+ new Jefferson County (Beaumont) cases today when normally averaging less than 10. Either a mistake, catching up on many old tests, or not a good time to be in a retirement home there.