Texas Re-Opening Announced

[Sii 6]

This is all good. Accelerate this shit now so we can enjoy football season.

Huh?

And pretty much every respected heath expert out there is fully expecting a second wave in the fall. I think we will see some sort of season for most but it’s going to be a mess. Players all over testing positive and we’ve hardly even started conditioning for most

[Sii 6]

This is all good. Accelerate this shit now so we can enjoy football season.

Huh?

And pretty much every respected heath expert out there is fully expecting a second wave in the fall. I think we will see some sort of season for most but it’s going to be a mess. Players all over testing positive and we’ve hardly even started conditioning for most

[Sii 6]

This is all good. Accelerate this shit now so we can enjoy football season.

Huh?

And pretty much every respected heath expert out there is fully expecting a second wave in the fall. I think we will see some sort of season for most but it’s going to be a mess. Players all over testing positive and we’ve hardly even started conditioning for most

[Sii 6]

This is all good. Accelerate this shit now so we can enjoy football season.

Huh?

And pretty much every respected heath expert out there is fully expecting a second wave in the fall. I think we will see some sort of season for most but it’s going to be a mess. Players all over testing positive and we’ve hardly even started conditioning for most

[mdmost 44,052]

The rare quad post

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,999]

12 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

As though this were some fucking game of hide-the-ball.  "Ha-ha, cities--I knew all along how you could reduce COVID infections, but didn't tell you.  But now you finally figured it out, so good for you."

What a sorry fucker.  He's the antithesis of a leader.  He's just a spineless pussy.

I think we've established that he still has half of a spine.

[DDD Dad 14,651]

17 minutes ago, Sii said:

Huh?

And pretty much every respected heath expert out there is fully expecting a second wave in the fall. I think we will see some sort of season for most but it’s going to be a mess. Players all over testing positive and we’ve hardly even started conditioning for most

Whose sock is this?

[TXSG8R 3,362]

The risks of CTE didn't stop kids from playing football so I know there will be plenty that will be willing to play through COVID.  Personally, I wouldn't let my kid anywhere near a locker room while there is a chance of shit like this occurring.  

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/12/875486356/first-known-u-s-lung-transplant-for-covid-19-patient-performed-in-chicago

Quote

Northwestern Medicine performs 40 to 50 lung transplants a year, and Bharat says he does most of them. Upon studying the COVID-ravaged lungs he removed from the patient, he says he found no viable regions left.

I know thats akin to winning the lottery, but people win all the time.  About a third of SARS and MERS patients experienced lung scarring and reduced capacity, so its not a stretch to think the same would happen here.  And its not just people with a strong symptomatic response that show damage.  

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms

Quote

One study from China found that this ground-glass appearance showed up in scans of 77 percent of Covid-19 patients. In another study out of China, published in Radiology, 66 of 70 hospitalized patients had some amount of lung damage in CT scans, and more than half had the kind of lesions that are likely to develop into scars. (A third study from China suggests this is not just for critically ill patients; its authors found that of 58 asymptomatic patients, 95 percent also had evidence of these ground-glass opacities in their lungs. More than a quarter of these individuals went on to develop symptoms within a few days.)

“These kinds of tissue changes can cause permanent damage,” says Ali Gholamrezanezhad, a radiologist at the Keck School of Medicine at the University of Southern California.

Although it’s still too early to know if patients with ongoing lung symptoms like Montano will have permanent lung damage, doctors can learn more about what to expect from looking back to people who have recovered from SARS and MERS, other coronaviruses that resulted in similar lung tissue changes.

One small longitudinal study published in Nature followed 71 SARS patients from 2003 until 2018 and found that more than a third had residual scarring, which can mean reduced lung capacity. MERS is a little harder to extrapolate from, since fewer than 2,500 people were infected, and somewhere between 30 and 40 percent died. But one study found that about a third of 36 MERS survivors also had long-term lung damage.

Gholamrezanezhad has recently done a literature review of SARS and MERS and says that for this subset of people, “The pulmonary function never comes back; their ability to do normal activities never goes back to baseline.”

Additionally, Covid-19 scarring rates may end up being higher than SARS and MERS patients because those illnesses often attacked only one lung. But Covid-19 appears to often affect both lungs, which Gholamrezanezhad says escalates the risks of lung scarring.

He has already seen residual scarring in Covid-19 patients and is now designing a study to identify what factors might make some people at higher risk of permanent damage. He suspects having any type of underlying lung disease, like asthma, or other health conditions, like hypertension, might increase the risk of having longer-term lung issues. Additionally, “the older you are, probably the higher your chance of scarring,” he says.

Reduced lung capacity would end most athlete's careers.  Playing football before we have a vaccine seems ripe for ruining some kids' lives, and my guess will lead to an onslaught of lawsuits.  

Edited June 18, 2020 by TXSG8R
no clue why I led with on the one hand...

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,731]

12 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

On the one hand, the risks of CTE didn't stop kids from playing football so I know there will be plenty that will be willing to play through COVID.  Personally, I wouldn't let my kid anywhere near a locker room while there is a chance of shit like this occurring.  

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/06/12/875486356/first-known-u-s-lung-transplant-for-covid-19-patient-performed-in-chicago

I know thats akin to winning the lottery, but people win all the time.  About a third of SARS and MERS patients experienced lung scarring and reduced capacity, so its not a stretch to think the same would happen here.  And its not just people with a strong symptomatic response that show damage.  

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms

Reduced lung capacity would end most athlete's careers.  Playing football before we have a vaccine seems ripe for ruining some kids' lives, and my guess will lead to an onslaught of lawsuits.  

Parents and kids that want to play will justify it. Parents that don't want their kids to play with justify it. Any and every one can remain willfully ignorant when it suits them.

 

[Steamboat1874 4,361]

14 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Definitely true but hospitalizations today were down from the past two days and down from last Tuesday.

So hospitalizations going down, cases going up? My guess is now we're starting to see the protest cases coming in. Mostly younger kids, generally in better shape than the population, plus as @Anastasis mentioned the city has been encouraging testing for folks to went to the protests. It sort of looks like we hit a spike in hospitalizations from Memorial Day that might be flattening/dropping back down, and now we're hitting a wave of cases from the protests. If I'm right I wouldn't expect to see a big uptick in hospitalizations. They usually lag cases by 3-4 days, so look to the end of the week.

So many different moving parts - it's pretty fascinating in a morbid way. 

My concern is not really for the protesters. Most will be fine. the question is whether they have or will spread it to their families or coworkers unknowingly. Guess we'll see. After the next 3-4 days it's going to be really hard to distinguish the protest wave and the Memorial Day. It's just one big melting pot of the China Herp. 

To add: I'm only focusing on Austin data because I'm an "I have to understand and see the data behind everything" guy and trying to do it on a broader scale than my city is mentally exhausting. 

Well a 3 day 4th Of July weekend is coming so get ready for another spike which I am guessing will be more substantial than the Memorial Day and protest ones.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13,629]

2 hours ago, mdmost said:

The rare quad post

It's Quads Day.

[BradInATX 9,208]

29 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Well a 3 day 4th Of July weekend is coming so get ready for another spike which I am guessing will be more substantial than the Memorial Day and protest ones.

Labor Day weekend is going to be a shit show Covidapalooza too. College football kickoff, end of summer, holiday weekend, and a lot of fantasy football drafts. 

Edited June 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[InkaUtexas 26,893]

48 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Well a 3 day 4th Of July weekend is coming so get ready for another spike which I am guessing will be more substantial than the Memorial Day and protest ones.

Expect cancellations. San Marcos cancelled their firework show today. 

 

[justhookit 4,206]

16 hours ago, Anastasis said:

City told everybody involved with the protests to get tested for free, no matter whether they were symptomatic or not.  It was good advice.  The numbers today may be driven by that guidance, in which case maybe there is a chance that they don't convert to hospitalization numbers. 

Yeah, but I’ve pretty much given up paying attention to anything other than local numbers. Corpus basically had no protests yet our new case numbers are thru the roof. This is because of opening up.

[Anastasis 23,720]

On the Travis County dashboard at the moment:

We are updating the software on the dashboard resulting in intermittent outages throughout the day. As a result of the update, the data on the dashboard will not be updated on Thursday, June 18th and will show Wednesday’s data until Friday afternoon.

We just had the biggest new case day, a substantial jump, and they decide to update the software and skip a day of reporting. Fuck heads. 

[Sii 6]

Whose sock is this?

No one. Have been around since the beginning of shaggy.

13 positive players for UT already

[BradInATX 9,208]

54 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

On the Travis County dashboard at the moment:

We are updating the software on the dashboard resulting in intermittent outages throughout the day. As a result of the update, the data on the dashboard will not be updated on Thursday, June 18th and will show Wednesday’s data until Friday afternoon.

We just had the biggest new case day, a substantial jump, and they decide to update the software and skip a day of reporting. Fuck heads. 

 

I found a better source for that data anyway, you can actually see the raw numbers by day over history and not just today's number and the rolling 7 graph.

Go here: https://www.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?url=https://services.arcgis.com/0L95CJ0VTaxqcmED/ArcGIS/rest/services/Austin_MSA_Key_Indicators_(Public_View)/FeatureServer&source=sd

 

Click the icon I circled below

 

[mchookem 16,769]

Governor says public schools will be open in the fall for in person classes. this seems premature at best?

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/texas-schools-reopening-fall/

[TexArcher 39,072]

3 minutes ago, mchookem said:

Governor says public schools will be open in the fall for in person classes. this seems premature at best?

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/texas-schools-reopening-fall/

This fucking idiot.

This spineless, brainless fucking idiot.

[Anastasis 23,720]

7 minutes ago, mchookem said:

Governor says public schools will be open in the fall for in person classes. this seems premature at best?

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/texas-schools-reopening-fall/

The districts are going to determine what this actually looks like, not Abbott. 

[TexArcher 39,072]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The districts are going to determine what this actually looks like, not Abbott. 

I was going to ask if superindendents have the authority to override the governor's order.  I would guess not?

[mdmost 44,052]

The level of openness for schools will depend heavily on how much the TEA is going to give the districts to open back up with safety measures in place. Since that will probably go with the typical underfunding we see, I'd imagine it will be up to parents to either send their kids with masks, face shields, and other forms of precautions to allow for social distancing or to just simply opt for distance learning. 

[Sii 6]

This fucking idiot.

This spineless, brainless fucking idiot.

No need for masks either. Abbott is a fucking Trump bot

[justhookit 4,206]

1 hour ago, Sii said:

No one. Have been around since the beginning of shaggy.

13 positive players for UT already

Well they need to go ahead and infect the rest of the team this month or next so we can have football this fall.

[4th&Five 42,005]

Just now, Sii said:

No need for masks either. Abbott is a fucking Trump bot

the scary part is he's not a babbling moron in orange makeup so most of our state think he's intelligent and has good intentions.

[DDD Dad 14,651]

1 hour ago, Sii said:

No one. Have been around since the beginning of shaggy.

13 positive players for UT already

Just thought it curious since you have basically no posting activity for over a year leading up to last week. 

[hayden_horn 11,402]

29 minutes ago, mchookem said:

Governor says public schools will be open in the fall for in person classes. this seems premature at best?

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/texas-schools-reopening-fall/

i do not understand the rush. what the actual fuck, dude? cases are on the rise, quick, someone release that we'll be having kids in class, asap!

[NameAlreadyInUse 5,169]

7 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Just thought it curious since you have basically no posting activity for over a year leading up to last week. 

He's an old timer unless someone stole the user name.  

[mdmost 44,052]

Because he's never going to throttle this back. Doing so would be admitting he was wrong. So just keep doubling and tripling down and wish for the best. Dallas supposedly is checking cases that involve a daycare. There's also an investigation into the death of a 12 year old to see if the child died from Covid. 

Edited June 18, 2020 by mdmost

[Radical Larry 28,822]

Just thought it curious since you have basically no posting activity for over a year leading up to last week. 

He passed out after a dollar beer night at a WNBA game and just woke up.

[justhookit 4,206]

3 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i do not understand the rush. what the actual fuck, dude? cases are on the rise, quick, someone release that we'll be having kids in class, asap!

He seems to be in panic mode. We will see the same thing in NY in a month or two when cases start rising again because they are reopening. I mean it was inevitable yet we still seem to be unwilling to do anything about it.

Require masks. Sorry bar/restaurant industry but you can do takeout only. NO TRAVEL.

 

[Sii 6]

Just thought it curious since you have basically no posting activity for over a year leading up to last week. 

Hadn’t been on here in awhile. Not much since it became surly horns

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

9 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i do not understand the rush. what the actual fuck, dude? cases are on the rise, quick, someone release that we'll be having kids in class, asap!

The schools are a huge part of the economy b/c they also serve as child care for workers and have their own place in the supply chain infrastructure.  

It has always been a money over public health approach so I’m not surprised. 

[Post Oak 20,568]

33 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

I was going to ask if superindendents have the authority to override the governor's order.  I would guess not?

Unless they piss off a hairdresser

[TexEx15 17,951]

I believe there have been some discussions on how susceptible children are to getting the virus in the first place as well as how efficiently they infect adults as a result.  I am NOT opining that it’s not dangerous for kids.

There are people much smarter and knowledgeable than I on this subject but one thing I can’t get over is utter failure of leadership both nationally and at the state level when it comes to this research or lack thereof.  It seems to me we should have been researching this with the full weight of government resources in preparation for the question we all knew was coming.  How do we handle the next school year?  Trump is in charge so I am not really that surprised but still.

And to be clear I’m not advocating sending kids back.  Hell I have 2 school age kids and 1 in day care that have been at home since mid March. My wife is also a teacher.  We don’t know how we are going to handle it come next school year. I just can’t believe we don’t spend more effort on this research.

[BrazilHorn 6,846]

Thanks #BradinATX for map link. Ok, we are in for a wild ride and it is going to be 100% attributable to combo of Memorial Day & Protests.

We are fucked (these are all viewed as per day/averages)

Per Day Avg: New Cases New Hospital Admits Total Hospitalized June 1-7 60.7 12.2 90 June 8-14 121.14 20.28 110 June 15-17 148.66 22 158
Absolutely ramping like crazy in terms of: New cases, New hospital admits & total hospital beds occupied. The unfortunate thing is prior to Memorial Day & Protests Austin was starting to have some positive momentum in how CV was "stabilizing" New Cases: 52/Day New Hospital Admits: 9/day Total Hospitalized: 92/day (and trending down towards end of month)
People need to stay home, mask up if/when they do go out and just be smart.

 

Edited June 18, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[justhookit 4,206]

16 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Thanks #BradinATX for map link. Ok, we are in for a wild ride and it is going to be 100% attributable to combo of Memorial Day & Protests.

We are fucked (these are all viewed as per day/averages)

Per Day Avg: New Cases New Hospital Admits Total Hospitalized June 1-7 60.7 12.2 90 June 8-14 121.14 20.28 110 June 15-17 148.66 22 158
Absolutely ramping like crazy in terms of: New cases, New hospital admits & total hospital beds occupied. The unfortunate thing is prior to Memorial Day & Protests Austin was starting to have some positive momentum in how CV was "stabilizing" New Cases: 52/Day New Hospital Admits: 9/day Total Hospitalized: 92/day (and trending down towards end of month)
People need to stay home, mask up if/when they do go out and just be smart.

 

It’s not necessarily Memorial Day and it’s almost certainly not the protests. It’s re-opening. Full stop. The sooner people realize that the better.

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Governor says public schools will be open in the fall for in person classes. this seems premature at best?
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/18/texas-schools-reopening-fall/

As I’ve told my upcoming freshman in college kid, any plans more than two weeks away is a hope and a wish.

[BrazilHorn 6,846]

2 minutes ago, justhookit said:

It’s not necessarily Memorial Day and it’s almost certainly not the protests. It’s re-opening. Full stop. The sooner people realize that the better.

To ignore the massive crowds at both events is naive. I am not at all debating that the protests weren't totally valid (they were/are) but to ignore the fact that thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder for days on end is nuts. Yes the re-opening contributed but Memorial Day & the Protests kicked the re-opening to another level.

End of the day the spike in cases is from a number of causes but to act "DeBlasio-esque" and pretend that large crowds of people do not spread CV19 is crazy.

 

[Brisketexan 106,900]

11 minutes ago, justhookit said:

It’s not necessarily Memorial Day and it’s almost certainly not the protests. It’s re-opening. Full stop. The sooner people realize that the better.

 

6 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

To ignore the massive crowds at both events is naive. I am not at all debating that the protests weren't totally valid (they were/are) but to ignore the fact that thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder for days on end is nuts. Yes the re-opening contributed but Memorial Day & the Protests kicked the re-opening to another level.

End of the day the spike in cases is from a number of causes but to act "DeBlasio-esque" and pretend that large crowds of people do not spread CV19 is crazy.

 

I don't think that anyone would conclude that there was zero transmission at Memorial Day events or the protests....but being that those events were outdoors, and the protests were heavily masked, the transmission from those events seems low (see the fact that the big Lake of the Ozarks gathering didn't appear to transmit any cases), versus bars, where we have numerous examples of significant spreading in packed bars.

Large groups, close together, inside, are the biggest risk factor.  Everything else is a distant second.

[justhookit 4,206]

2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

To ignore the massive crowds at both events is naive. I am not at all debating that the protests weren't totally valid (they were/are) but to ignore the fact that thousands of people were shoulder to shoulder for days on end is nuts. Yes the re-opening contributed but Memorial Day & the Protests kicked the re-opening to another level.

End of the day the spike in cases is from a number of causes but to act "DeBlasio-esque" and pretend that large crowds of people do not spread CV19 is crazy.

 

To be clear, I’m a Republican.

im not ignoring those things, but it’s pretty clear that this thing mostly spreads indoors. I’m basing my guess on what I see locally. There were 0 protests in Port A and almost none in Corpus. Memorial Day was 3 weeks ago. It’s not driving new case numbers. However what we have seen is the start of summer and bars/restaurants/businesses operating close to normal. Draw your own conclusion. I’m pretty confident in mine.

[Pig Bellmont 8,886]

I think the larger takeaway is this 1) all recent studies show masks greatly reduce risk of spread and 2) in the face of rising cases and hospitalizations, the governor refuses to implement new statewide policies about masks. He’s shirking leadership 

[BrazilHorn 6,846]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

 

I don't think that anyone would conclude that there was zero transmission at Memorial Day events or the protests....but being that those events were outdoors, and the protests were heavily masked, the transmission from those events seems low (see the fact that the big Lake of the Ozarks gathering didn't appear to transmit any cases), versus bars, where we have numerous examples of significant spreading in packed bars.

Large groups, close together, inside, are the biggest risk factor.  Everything else is a distant second.

I think all are saying the same thing. What I would assert is that Memorial Day and Protests got Huge Masses of people out together. They then may have (and did) hit bars/restaurants etc that were reopened. I agree that the re-opening is absolutely a facilitator and amplifier of exposure, all it rolled together to make from a CV19 perspective a shit show. Is unfortunate as Austin as getting relatively decent handle on this.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,908]

58 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

i do not understand the rush. what the actual fuck, dude? cases are on the rise, quick, someone release that we'll be having kids in class, asap!

Well what's the funding model like for schools in Texas? If it's tied to attendance, then you bet your ass we are opening back up. 

[Bartles 769]

Just for one example, Philadelphia is well over two weeks from the largest protests, and new COVID cases have been dropping to March levels. There were a good percentage of masks being worn at those marches. Our restaurants only just opened for outdoor seating last week, we still don't have any indoor activity besides grocery/pharmacy.

I think one thing the protests did, in both a good and bad way, was make everyone realize that crowds gathering is something that was gonna happen at some point and we may as well learn to deal with it instead of staying locked down. I don't think it's coincidence that a lot of sports orgs started talking about admitting fans within a few days of the protests tailing off. The down side is so many groups pointing to the protests as excuse to just do whatever they like, including indoors.

[High Plains Drifter 11,189]

27 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Well what's the funding model like for schools in Texas? If it's tied to attendance, then you bet your ass we are opening back up. 

 

yeah but they could count a kid as "present" if he/she logged on from home and did stuff online.

 

[Mrs Whiggins 13,050]

Many churches are also holding services. Some still have an online service for their vulnerable congregants, but others are not (sometimes due to lack of funds for equipment). Even with distancing indoors if some churches are doing so, others may not be.

[Wanker Bob 379]

8 minutes ago, Bartles said:

Just for one example, Philadelphia is well over two weeks from the largest protests, and new COVID cases have been dropping to March levels. There were a good percentage of masks being worn at those marches. Our restaurants only just opened for outdoor seating last week, we still don't have any indoor activity besides grocery/pharmacy.

I think one thing the protests did, in both a good and bad way, was make everyone realize that crowds gathering is something that was gonna happen at some point and we may as well learn to deal with it instead of staying locked down. I don't think it's coincidence that a lot of sports orgs started talking about admitting fans within a few days of the protests tailing off. The down side is so many groups pointing to the protests as excuse to just do whatever they like, including indoors.

 all the medical evidence on viral infections suggests that outdoors as long as masks are required and worn it's a lot less likely to transmit. You have to almost directly get spit/mucus particles in your eyes/nose/mouth for it to happen. Which is difficult with masks on. 

That's why places like that aren't seeing a rise but places like Texas where the governor let every indoor activity open with zero oversight are starting to get absolutely murdered. 

[Captainant 28,539]

3 minutes ago, Mrs Whiggins said:

Many churches are also holding services. Some still have an online service for their vulnerable congregants, but others are not (sometimes due to lack of funds for equipment). Even with distancing indoors if some churches are doing so, others may not be.

Well what's the worst that could happen when you cram a bunch of folks into a room and have them all sing and breath the same air for an hour or so? Maybe it'll all work out just like a miracle

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,908]

14 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

yeah but they could count a kid as "present" if he/she logged on from home and did stuff online.

 

Right, but what I'm thinking is school administrations are getting scared of the possibility that parents don't send their kids back until school campuses are reopened. I guess it depends on how helpful distance learning is for each individual kid, but if even a small percentage of parents opt to homeschool their kids, it could be catastrophic for some school districts. There could be teachers and support staff laid off right before school resumes.