Texas Re-Opening Announced

[Bateshorn 9899]

Trinity is going to bring only the Freshman on campus, along with international students and transfers. At least right now. We will see where it is in 2 weeks.

[elfenix 34171]

45 minutes ago, ChuckNorrisActionJeans said:

It's really feeling like a Rainy Day to me. Not sure how much Rainier it'd need to be.

[Wanker Bob 379]

22 minutes ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

That's not a typo it's a mistake.  A typo would've been to type "sotuh" instead of "south."  

That would have been a typo and a mistake

[SaucyJack 3487]

souf talk not going away

[hayden_horn 11360]

16 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Actual legislation to deal with this pandemic?

hahahahahahaha, hold on...lemme.....ok, no....hahahahahahahaha

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

7 hours ago, Bookman said:

I'd love to know why Abbott hasn't declared a special session. Should have done it in February or March at the latest.

Agreed. The time for a bathroom bill is NOW. 

[relapse98 634]

43 minutes ago, Bookman said:

Actual legislation to deal with this pandemic?

What legislation - help me out here?
We still have a republican senate and house that are pissed that Abbott has gone too far. So, exactly what legislation would these people that think he's gone too far create?
And nevermind that the governor sets the special session agenda - so it'd still be him controlling what they discuss.

I get wanting to have more heads looking at it, but those heads are f'ed up, so I don't see how that's an improvement.

[InkaUtexas 25517]

42 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Trinity is going to bring only the Freshman on campus, along with international students and transfers. At least right now. We will see where it is in 2 weeks.

I wonder if they mandate Freshman and transfers live in dorms. 

[Mo Horn 8807]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

fify

Edited July 20, 2020 by Mo Horn

[henrygandorf 29176]

3 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

Does Gov Abbott have any smarmy tweets about this or nah?

something something california deficit billions texas balanced budget something.

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Mondays generally have reduced numbers but there is a little good news as Hospitalizations have seemingly his a plateau. Expect a big number in deaths and probably tests the next couple of days and the next 10 days is probably gonna be rough but if hospitalizations can now start dripping down, we may be getting through the flattening of the curve.  If they pop up again then.... well.  

 

[CooterBrown 17907]

On the bright side, an uptick in deaths frees up hospital beds.

[Beau Vine 54001]

5 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

I wonder if they mandate Freshman and transfers live in dorms. 

Trinity already does that.  In fact, I think they also require sophs and juniors live in dorms, IIRC.

[justhookit 4180]

The problem is that flattening the curve isn’t good enough anymore. We have to make it actually go down, way down, like NY did, they did it with almost a total lockdown. We don’t seem to be willing to do that again so we better hope the mask thing is actually working.

[Dnaguy 11775]

4 hours ago, justhookit said:

The problem is that flattening the curve isn’t good enough anymore. We have to make it actually go down, way down, like NY did, they did it with almost a total lockdown. We don’t seem to be willing to do that again so we better hope the mask thing is actually working.

Yep.

If a fall surge happens like a lot of folks think and we’ve only flattened the curve, then turbofucked is what we’re going to be.

[hookemATL 11610]

Just like my hopes, dreams, and aspirations to be a famous cobbler, the virus will disappear. It will disappear. 

[relapse98 634]

23 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

If a fall surge happens like a lot of folks think and we’ve only flattened the curve, then turbofucked is what we’re going to be.

Hell, forget surge. If we stay anywhere close to where we are now and we get a decent flu season, we are fucked. And Flu season is coming up quick. This is what those retards don't understand - we have hospital beds available now, because the governor stopped elective surgery in some areas. We can't get back to normal as it is right now. And the flu that they talk about being bad - just wait kiddies. When  you get covid + flu hitting our health system, that's not gonna be a good thing.

[Snake Diggity 4614]

34 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Yep.

If a fall surge happens like a lot of folks think and we’ve only flattened the curve, then turbofucked is what we’re going to be.

Way more worried about when regular flu kicks back up than a further surge of Covid.  Barring some good luck, we should all plan to be totally locked down from November thru January, and not expect any hospitals to have any capacity during that time.

Good news is we might get lucky and masks might be enough to keep not only Covid but also flu in check.  And vaccine likely to be available to all by April.  And treatment options continue to improve, so death rate should continue to be low.  Hell, this could result in a vaccine being available for the common cold.

The next 9 months is still likely to be shittier than normal.  But we should all get a big morale boost in November followed by a fuckin Renaissance next spring.

[justhookit 4180]

Yup. Fortunately flu doesn’t spread in schools and no sane person would have them open this fall.

[InkaUtexas 25517]

Local ISD announced last night. Open up 2 weeks late, go 4 weeks online, assess. If they think they can open it is up to the students to decide if they want online or in class. Teachers will have to manage both curriculums. 

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/20/coronavirus-deaths-texas/

[Rougarou 594]

Our school is still opening in August for face-to-face instruction-- offering an online for 4 weeks until late September as well, but will have to be rigorous and the school has made it clear they expect the online kids to keep up with the face-to-face instruction and there are no tuition discounts for choosing online.

At pick-up and drop-off (obviously no buses) kids have temperature checks both in the AM and PM, Mandatory masks, no sharing of learning tools, toys, games, etc., no cafeteria food (must bring brown bag lunch), mandatory social distancing, and a souped up hygienic schedule for both facilities and baked in times for kids to wash/sanitize every hour.

The classes already have an 8-10 student to teacher ratio in normal times. I expect it to be smaller in the fall, though my wife thinks there might be a run on parents getting their kids into moderately priced private schools like ours, which would be horrible for social distancing and keeping the low ratio, as they fall outside of the jurisdiction as AG Ken Paxton ruled.

Let's see.

Edited July 21, 2020 by Rougarou

[Wanker Bob 379]

The pneumonia as primary cause of death numbers are really taking off since around mid June. Reporting is about 4 weeks behind it appears. Here's the tab I've been keeping to see what the numbers do over the summer, and the Texas 5 year running average for this stat is 3199 annually. Those deaths in the first column are not counted as Covid deaths. 

geo plotter

Edited July 22, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Wanker Bob 379]

But here's some trump authoritarian regime bullshit. Since I first started looking at this stat on May 29th the pneumonia column always said "deaths involving pneumonia, without covid19, excluding influenza". Every time I checked the exact same header for that category. 

Until last week when it all of a sudden changed to "deaths involving pneumonia, WITH or without covid19, excluding influenza". Yeah, I'll give you a hint... The numbers didn't change so it doesn't include. They just threw that in there to try to make it ambiguous without realizing how stupid that sounds. Someone in the admin is paying attention to how bad this looks. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Wanker Bob 379]

18 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

The pneumonia as primary cause of death numbers are really taking off since around mid June. Reporting is about 4 weeks behind it appears. Here's the tab I've been keeping to see what the numbers do over the summer, and the Texas 5 year running average for this stat is 3199 annually. Those deaths in the first column are not counted as Covid deaths. 

geo plotter

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[Patrick Bateman 3903]

Tuesday so this wasn't expected to be a good day and it wasn't.  Positivity still high, hospitalizations went up by over 250.  Deaths high.  I'm going to guess tomorrow is the same or worse.  smh.  At least cases is under 10k.

 

[relapse98 634]

8 hours ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/20/coronavirus-deaths-texas/

That article has great data and visualization.

[Rougarou 594]

'Encouraging' lower case count: Dallas County announced 734 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday after more than two weeks with at least 1,000 each day

[Irwin F Fletcher 3550]

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Holy shit! Fuck the coronavirus scare, we've got a serious pneumonia problem.

[justhookit 4180]

5 hours ago, Irwin F Fletcher said:

5 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Holy shit! Fuck the coronavirus scare, we've got a serious pneumonia problem.

ol Bob has a serious math and reading comprehension problem. He’s also lying.

[Wanker Bob 379]

7 hours ago, justhookit said:

ol Bob has a serious math and reading comprehension problem. He’s also lying.

Now that's just stupid. We've been over this before way back many pages. You can disagree all you want about the relevance but the numbers are there and they're climbing fast. Your insistence on being so belligerent about it is strange. Especially when Dahobbs explained the differences between the numbers I used and the ones you used from fluview. Of course total excess deaths will be a better number to use for the annual year over year comparison but we won't have that info for a long time and in the meantime this is one that shows there is a significant percentage of deaths from this virus that are not being counted. Significant enough to alter the IFR for this state quite a bit, and depending on the results from other states possibly significantly alter it for the country. 

Also, I posted that same link on this thread back around the end of May and you and many other posters checked it. With as big of a jackass as you're being about this you certainly would have pointed out if the header for the exact stat I was using said "with or without covid 19". You nor anyone else did because it didn't say that. Someone tampered with it and falsified the header last week. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[JimmyJames 12271]

I haven’t read all that and am not a scientist or MD, but to me if pneumonia related deaths are rising significantly for people not tested for Covid that likely means that there are more Covid related deaths than are actually being reported. Or did everyone start smoking again? Where am I wrong on that? 

[Dnaguy 11775]

3 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

I haven’t read all that and am not a scientist or MD, but to me if pneumonia related deaths are rising significantly for people not tested for Covid that likely means that there are more Covid related deaths than are actually being reported. Or did everyone start smoking again? Where am I wrong on that? 

“Think of this, if we didn’t do testing, instead of testing over 40 million people, if we did half the testing we would have half the cases.”

“If we did another, you cut that in half, we would have, yet again, half of that. But the headlines are always testing.” 

[justhookit 4180]

2 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

Now that's just stupid. We've been over this before way back many pages. You can disagree all you want about the relevance but the numbers are there and they're climbing fast. Your insistence on being so belligerent about it is strange. Especially when Dahobbs explained the differences between the numbers I used and the ones you used from fluview. Of course total excess deaths will be a better number to use for the annual year over year comparison but we won't have that info for a long time and in the meantime this is one that shows there is a significant percentage of deaths from this virus that are not being counted. Significant enough to alter the IFR for this state quite a bit, and depending on the results from other states possibly significantly alter it for the country. 

Also, I posted that same link on this thread back around the end of May and you and many other posters checked it. With as big of a jackass as you're being about this you certainly would have pointed out if the header for the exact stat I was using said "with or without covid 19". You nor anyone else did because it didn't say that. Someone tampered with it and falsified the header last week. 

Um, it did say “with or without covid” this entire time. As for your chart above that left hand column DOES include the covid numbers. You aren’t looking at 7733 pneumonia deaths. You are looking at 7733 minus 3481.

the reason I’m being “belligerent” towards you is because you are lying. Your 3199 number is the lowest one you can find, and it’s not right. This was pointed out to you months ago. Months ago you started this crap with your red state / blue state stuff. When it was pointed out that you that the undercount didn’t correlate at all to politics and in fact was extremely high in the states with the high outbreaks, you dropped that line. You then moved on to saying the real death number was over 200,000 when the actual confirmed death total at the time was 100,000. When it was pointed out that deaths at that time from ALL ILI was around 165,000 you dropped that nonsense. I’ve  repeatedly told you that we are undercounting deaths possibly by 20% or more. It’s bad enough without you making shit up.

you are bad at math and don’t understand the data you are looking at.

[JimmyJames 12271]

Republicans don’t care if other people die so long as it’s not Covid related and can’t be laid directly at the feet of dear leader trump.

Not only is it absolutely pathetic, it’s evil. 

[JimmyJames 12271]

21 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

“Think of this, if we didn’t do testing, instead of testing over 40 million people, if we did half the testing we would have half the cases.”

“If we did another, you cut that in half, we would have, yet again, half of that. But the headlines are always

Edited July 22, 2020 by JimmyJames
Never mind. I’m apparently confused.

[SquishMitten 10401]

43 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Um, it did say “with or without covid” this entire time. As for your chart above that left hand column DOES include the covid numbers. You aren’t looking at 7733 pneumonia deaths. You are looking at 7733 minus 3481.

That makes sense. Just did a quick check with the CDC, and the highest annual number of Texas deaths in the last 5 years was 2018 with 3,516 pneumonia deaths. So, using Wanker's chart, there are currently 4,252 deaths reported as non-covid-pneumonia and we're only through 7 months. If that stays the same, we would be looking at ~7,277 non-covid-pneumonia deaths by end of year (3,761 more than our previous high). Assuming every state shows similar increases in pneumonia (maybe not a fair assumption), that would be a nationwide increase of 42,538 mis-diagnosed non-covid-pneumonia by end of year. That seems like a lot. 

Note - I went to law school, not math school. Somebody smarter can correct my numbers if I screwed up my fractions and cross-multiplication

[justhookit 4180]

5 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

That makes sense. Just did a quick check with the CDC, and the highest annual number of Texas deaths in the last 5 years was 2018 with 3,516 pneumonia deaths. So, using Wanker's chart, there are currently 4,252 deaths reported as non-covid-pneumonia and we're only through 7 months. If that stays the same, we would be looking at ~7,277 non-covid-pneumonia deaths by end of year (3,761 more than our previous high). Assuming every state shows similar increases in pneumonia (maybe not a fair assumption), that would be a nationwide increase of 42,538 mis-diagnosed non-covid-pneumonia by end of year. That seems like a lot. 

Note - I went to law school, not math school. Somebody smarter can correct my numbers if I screwed up my fractions and cross-multiplication

Yeah it is a lot. A big part of the gap between the covid deaths and pneumonia deaths occurred prior to May because our testing was so shitty back then. It’s still not very good, but pretty much everyone who dies with an ILI now is getting covid tested. In the spring, not so much.

Data is about a month old, but there’s a really good article on the excess deaths here https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

[Wanker Bob 379]

On 5/31/2020 at 4:57 PM, Wanker Bob said:

Those graphs aren't taking into account all the covid deaths Texas is hiding as "pneumonia"

I'm not an expert on government reporting so if I'm making a mistake here let me know but that 2nd CDC link put has pneumonia Texas deaths at 4976 through May 29

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

while this one I found (click download data csv at bottom) has the total YEARLY pneumonia deaths for Texas as:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/flu_pneumonia_mortality/flu_pneumonia.htm

2018 - 3516

2017 - 2954

2016 - 2860

2015 - 3214

2014 - 3452

That's a 5 yr average of 3199/yr for the entire year and we've already by May 29th hit 4976? I know it slows in the summer but it picks back up again in Oct-Dec and to be 1777 deaths over the yearly average by May 29 means this state is probably underreporting CV deaths by at least 1900 - 2k to this point, right? 

You're either lying or just don't remember but the 3199 number wasn't the lowest one. It was the 5 year average as I showed on page 45 of this thread and explained in this post I quoted from that page. 

Go look at your and everyone else's responses to it. No one ever mentions what would be such a big and easy to spot mistake if it actually said "with or without" this entire time. No one.

I personally have checked that CDC page every weekday since early June and looked at the category header every single day and noticed the exact day it changed. 

As of mid June the excess in pneumonia as a primary cause of death for Texas over even the annual average, much less what would be a mid year average, is a significant number and since I first posted this on May 31 has climbed by almost 3,000 deaths in less than 2 months. That is a massive outlier. 

Every attempt you make to discredit this information is either erroneous or downright disingenuous. I'm going to keep posting the progress as the summer and fall goes on but you're going on ignore so this is the last time I respond to any of your garbage. I'll give the information straight from that page and from my logs of it and people can believe whatever the fuck they want. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[justhookit 4180]

You are an idiot.

[Wanker Bob 379]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

You are an idiot.

Fuck you cunt 

[SquishMitten 10401]

11 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

I personally have checked that CDC page every weekday since early June and looked at the category header every single day and noticed the exact day it changed. 

 

I don't have a dog in this fight. If what you're saying is true, which I'm not questioning, is it possible that even though the header didn't previously say "with or without" that it may have been a mistake by the CDC in how they presented the data? In other words, is it possible that those numbers were always with or without Covid? Or are you saying this is now an entirely different data set than what was previously being presented?

[Wanker Bob 379]

24 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I don't have a dog in this fight. If what you're saying is true, which I'm not questioning, is it possible that even though the header didn't previously say "with or without" that it may have been a mistake by the CDC in how they presented the data? In other words, is it possible that those numbers were always with or without Covid? Or are you saying this is now an entirely different data set than what was previously being presented?

That's possible but I would think less likely. All I know is when I researched this on May 29th the information in the post I quoted above is what I found. I posted it here and shared it with a few different people, one of which is my brother who's a statistician for a professional sports team, and no one said anything about it including the covid-19 numbers with pneumonia numbers. I've looked at that chart 5 days a week since June 9 and when it changed last week it triggered in my brain immediately since I was used to seeing the exact wording all those times. The actual data itself didn't change as if they had all of a sudden added the covid-19 in there then on my log I've kept from June 9th onward there would be a 3000 and change jump in one day. That doesn't happen.

If you think about it there's zero reason to include the covid-19 numbers with the pneumonia numbers when the official covid-19 numbers have their own column in the same chart. Whoever compiled the data would have taken an extra step to add in the covid-19 numbers just to force the reader of the chart to take an extra step to subtract them out to get the actual pneumonia numbers. 

IMO what's the most likely explanation, given what we already know about trump, republicans, and this administration, is someone noticed how bad of an outlier these pneumonia numbers are looking and changed the heading to make it look like less of a problem. They haphazardly did it without thinking how it makes no sense to present it that way. That seem by far most likely to me. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[DanTheHorn 4901]

16 hours ago, Rougarou said:

'Encouraging' lower case count: Dallas County announced 734 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday after more than two weeks with at least 1,000 each day

But the damn masks don't work - Trumpkin

[justhookit 4180]

Ah there it is. He’s come full circle. Months ago he claimed we were hiding covid deaths because political reasons. He’s now back to that argument again. For him this isn’t about numbers. It’s politics.

[Wanker Bob 379]

3 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

I haven’t read all that and am not a scientist or MD, but to me if pneumonia related deaths are rising significantly for people not tested for Covid that likely means that there are more Covid related deaths than are actually being reported. Or did everyone start smoking again? Where am I wrong on that? 

Just since I posted the log yesterday the pneumonia deaths shot up another 270 in today's update to top the 8000 mark at 8003. The official covid count for this update went up 225 to 3706. If we could see when the official covid deaths for Texas were around 3706 we could get an idea how much lag is in this data. Either way the numbers of both are increasing a lot faster now than they did when I first started checking on May 29. Texas is currently under-reporting covid deaths by a few thousand according to the data because this number is such a huge outlier. 

Even if you believe the covid numbers are included it's still a significant outlier and isn't being considered or accounted for by anyone in media or public office. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Wanker Bob

[Wanker Bob 379]

19 hours ago, Wanker Bob said:

The pneumonia as primary cause of death numbers are really taking off since around mid June. Reporting is about 4 weeks behind it appears. Here's the tab I've been keeping to see what the numbers do over the summer, and the Texas 5 year running average for this stat is 3199 annually. Those deaths in the first column are not counted as Covid deaths. 

geo plotter

Just thought of this but if the official covid numbers are included in the pneumonia totals as it claims then there should never be an instance where the official covid deaths are higher than the pneumonia over the same time span. Yet between July 17 and July 21 the official covid went up 365 while the pneumonia only went up 237. Impossible. Those pneumonia numbers do not include the covid. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

29 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Just since I posted the log yesterday the pneumonia deaths shot up another 270 in today's update to top the 8000 mark at 8003. The official covid count for this update went up 225 to 3706. If we could see when the official covid deaths for Texas were around 3706 we could get an idea how much lag is in this data. Either way the numbers of both are increasing a lot faster now than they did when I first started checking on May 29. Texas is currently under-reporting covid deaths by a few thousand according to the data because this number is such a huge outlier. 

Even if you believe the covid numbers are included it's still a significant outlier and isn't being considered or accounted for by anyone in media or public office. 

I have no idea where you are getting your numbers. It isn't from the CDC link provided: total deaths listed for influenza and/or pneumonia stand at 2,141 for Texas.  The upper range for total excess deaths (weighted to account for incomplete reporting) for Texas stands at  8,406 (including Covid). If you exclude covid, the upper range for total excess deaths in Texas is 4,324 (all other causes).  

I'm confident you are misunderstanding the data, but I can't really tell how until you point out what data set you're actually using. 

I'll also add that I don't blame anyone for getting confused by it. The data is grouped in strange ways that aren't, to me at least, consistent with best practices. I believe this is because it is a report of a report, rather than actual raw data from the government data set. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Biff Tannen 45494]

Feels like we need a new slapfight thread.

[justhookit 4180]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I have no idea where you are getting your numbers. It isn't from the CDC link provided: total deaths listed for influenza and/or pneumonia stand at 2,141 for Texas.  The upper range for total excess deaths (weighted to account for incomplete reporting) for Texas stands at  8,406 (including Covid). If you exclude covid, the upper range for total excess deaths in Texas is 4,324 (all other causes).  

I'm confident you are misunderstanding the data, but I can't really tell how until you point out what data set you're actually using. 

You are much nicer to the idoit than I am. 

‘I wouldn’t bother trying to understand.

27 minutes ago, Wanker Bob said:

Just thought of this but if the official covid numbers are included in the pneumonia totals as it claims then there should never be an instance where the official covid deaths are higher than the pneumonia over the same time span. Yet between July 17 and July 21 the official covid went up 365 while the pneumonia only went up 237. Impossible. Those pneumonia numbers do not include the covid. 

Holy crap. You really don’t have any idea what you are looking at. Of course it’s possible. Not all covid deaths involve pneumonia so they aren’t in the pneumonia column.