Dallas Cowboys 2018 offseason thread

[DougO 5243]

On 4/3/2018 at 11:48 PM, In10se said:

Beasley makes too much for NE. They might offer something for Switzer though since Garrett is hell bent on never using the guy except on jet sweeps and punt returns. 

I think he'll be good when he has his own offense around him and they make better adjustments for his game.

[TornACL 7698]

10 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Jason Witten, Jay Ratliff, Marion Barber, Sean Lee, Ron Leary, Doug Free, Andre Gurode, Demarco Murray, Jason Hatcher, and a few others would like to talk to you about shit drafting after the first over two decades 

I really didn't expect someone to actually take the position of defending Dallas' draft approaches over the past 20 years.

This new site continues to amaze.

[Trey3216 15344]

35 minutes ago, TornACL said:

I really didn't expect someone to actually take the position of defending Dallas' draft approaches over the past 20 years.

This new site continues to amaze.

Didn't say I was defending it.  But there have been numerous mid round and UDFA gems brought to the team over those 2 decades.  That fact is undeniable.   Yes, there have been countless busts.  But a 4th rounder isn't a bust.  The 2nd round on the other hand...

[Trey3216 15344]

2 hours ago, Mileslong said:

you really want to go there? thats who you have for 20 years worth of drafting?  that list tells you all you need to know.

Everyone on that list was not drafted in the first, and either made a pro-bowl or was a very solid to good player.  There are others as well.   It was 2am when I posted it and I was tired. 

[TornACL 7698]

Once every 2.333 years Dallas will draft a guy after round 2 who is a very solid to good player.  That's reassuring!

[Amobie 58]

3 hours ago, Mileslong said:

you really want to go there? thats who you have for 20 years worth of drafting?  that list tells you all you need to know.

Again.. the numbers are not telling the same story.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7%	93.5%	83.9%	77.4%	71.0%
2	96.8%	96.1%	83.9%	74.2%	41.9%
3	96.9%	75.1%	62.5%	37.5%	18.8%
4	91.4%	74.3%	54.3%	34.3%	17.2%
5	81.1%	56.8%	37.8%	24.3%	16.2%
6	70.2%	57.5%	35.3%	20.9%	10.6%
7	58.3%	45.8%	31.3%	21.7%	16.7%

 

 

By year 4.. 62.5% of 3rd round picks are no longer with the team that drafted them.  That's just players that didn't end up getting cut before the end of their rookie deal.  By year 5,  58% of second round picks have ended up on other teams.  

This isn't even getting into the quality of those players that managed to stick around. 

-------

 

I think the real problem here is that the expectations that every pick ends up being a probowler/starter are completely unrealistic.

Edited April 6, 2018 by Amobie

[michaelpshayes 417]

 2 playoff wins in 20 years

[DougO 5243]

3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Everyone on that list was not drafted in the first, and either made a pro-bowl or was a very solid to good player.  There are others as well.   It was 2am when I posted it and I was tired. 

That's really not a lot to show for two decades of drafts.

[DougO 5243]

1 hour ago, Amobie said:

Again.. the numbers are not telling the same story.

https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around

 

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7%	93.5%	83.9%	77.4%	71.0%
2	96.8%	96.1%	83.9%	74.2%	41.9%
3	96.9%	75.1%	62.5%	37.5%	18.8%
4	91.4%	74.3%	54.3%	34.3%	17.2%
5	81.1%	56.8%	37.8%	24.3%	16.2%
6	70.2%	57.5%	35.3%	20.9%	10.6%
7	58.3%	45.8%	31.3%	21.7%	16.7%

 

 

By year 4.. 62.5% of 3rd round picks are no longer with the team that drafted them.  That's just players that didn't end up getting cut before the end of their rookie deal.  By year 5,  58% of second round picks have ended up on other teams.  

This isn't even getting into the quality of those players that managed to stick around. 

-------

 

I think the real problem here is that the expectations that every pick ends up being a probowler/starter are completely unrealistic.

That's it, right there. The second contract is a better judge of a draft over time. Except in those frequent cases where the Cowboys give a player a second contract way too soon, like with Crawford, Chuch, Scandrick, etc... when they overvalue their players.

 

[Vic Mackey 47010]

Didn't say I was defending it.  But there have been numerous mid round and UDFA gems brought to the team over those 2 decades.  That fact is undeniable.   Yes, there have been countless busts.  But a 4th rounder isn't a bust.  The 2nd round on the other hand...

All I listed was guys in the first few rounds.

[JimmyJames 12271]

4 hours ago, michaelpshayes said:

 2 playoff wins in 20 years

Yeah but you’re overlooking the draft pick stats.

The reality is the Cowboys are perpetually fighting cap problems that hurt the team because Jerry perpetually signs players to shitty contracts when their rookie contract expires or makes dumb ass trades that hurt the cap room (not so much anymore, focuses more on the former). 

Same song different verse. 

Edited April 7, 2018 by JimmyJames

[Brew 3049]

I think the point of the draft stats above should be that no one is truly great at it. Good teams hit on a few players in the draft for sure but they also have to supplement through free agency. Dallas has done a decent job in the draft of late but they need to be perfect in it because they have been absolute shit in free agency and the trade market. Part of that is because they have been in cap hell with their contracts and the cap penalties they had to deal with. However, they are handing out the contracts so that’s on them.

[C-Man 27186]

1 hour ago, Brew said:

I think the point of the draft stats above should be that no one is truly great at it. Good teams hit on a few players in the draft for sure but they also have to supplement through free agency. Dallas has done a decent job in the draft of late but they need to be perfect in it because they have been absolute shit in free agency and the trade market. Part of that is because they have been in cap hell with their contracts and the cap penalties they had to deal with. However, they are handing out the contracts so that’s on them.

I'd be willing to bet the Cowboys numbers in rounds 3+ are among the worst in football the past 20 years. Last year, though, I think they did okay. I sheepishly admit Jerry is a better GM than he was 10 years ago (he can thank Stephen for ripping the Manziel card out of his hand) but for the longest time I think he didn't put in the work -- or wasn't good enough of a talent evaluator it didn't matter. Anybody on this site could draft the 1st round for any team in the league and do a decent enough job.

[youdunnf'dup 2147]

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

I'd be willing to bet the Cowboys numbers in rounds 3+ are among the worst in football the past 20 years. Last year, though, I think they did okay. I sheepishly admit Jerry is a better GM than he was 10 years ago (he can thank Stephen for ripping the Manziel card out of his hand) but for the longest time I think he didn't put in the work -- or wasn't good enough of a talent evaluator it didn't matter. Anybody on this site could draft the 1st round for any team in the league and do a decent enough job.

If you could find any evidence of this, I’d be shocked. But you can’t, because it doesn’t exist 

[In10se 175]

16 minutes ago, youdunnf'dup said:

If you could find any evidence of this, I’d be shocked. But you can’t, because it doesn’t exist 

That's the point. There is no statistical metric you can use to judge draft performance accurately because there are too many variables that have a significant impact on performance, and there are so many different ways a player can be judged to be a plus or minus performer outside of statistical accomplishments.

This is one of those things that requires looking at each draft between 4 and 10 years after and judging how many players became 1) Impact stars, 2) quality contributing starters, 3) quality contributing backups, and 4) non contributors. Then analyze results based on draft positions for each player. 

[Underdog 28565]

Replay of Cowboys/Steelers from 2016 currenty on NFLN for anyone interested.  

[Trey3216 15344]

1 hour ago, Underdog said:

Replay of Cowboys/Steelers from 2016 currenty on NFLN for anyone interested.  

I’ve been watching as well.  

[DougO 5243]

Me too. One of the best games in the last several years.

[Underdog 28565]

No spoilers, fellas. 

[Mileslong 4728]

Again.. the numbers are not telling the same story.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2014/5/13/5713996/how-long-does-the-average-draft-pick-stick-around
 

Round	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	Year 4	Year 5
1	99.7%	93.5%	83.9%	77.4%	71.0%
2	96.8%	96.1%	83.9%	74.2%	41.9%
3	96.9%	75.1%	62.5%	37.5%	18.8%
4	91.4%	74.3%	54.3%	34.3%	17.2%
5	81.1%	56.8%	37.8%	24.3%	16.2%
6	70.2%	57.5%	35.3%	20.9%	10.6%
7	58.3%	45.8%	31.3%	21.7%	16.7%

 

 
By year 4.. 62.5% of 3rd round picks are no longer with the team that drafted them.  That's just players that didn't end up getting cut before the end of their rookie deal.  By year 5,  58% of second round picks have ended up on other teams.  
This isn't even getting into the quality of those players that managed to stick around. 
-------
 
I think the real problem here is that the expectations that every pick ends up being a probowler/starter are completely unrealistic.

I have no idea what your point is from that link

[Amobie 58]

8 minutes ago, Mileslong said:

 

I have no idea what your point is from that link

 

That on average by year 4 even most second round draft picks are cut by the team that drafted them. 62% don't see the end of their rookie deal.  People have too high of expectations for a lot of these guys.  

[Mileslong 4728]

That doesn’t have anything to do wi h how well the cowboys have drafted over the last 20 years.

About five years ago they were at the bottom of drafting after first round. They have gotten a lot better the last five years but they are still middle of the pack since 1996. And that’s with them hitting on a lot of first rounders lately.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-history/#DAL

[Amobie 58]

On 4/7/2018 at 3:03 PM, Mileslong said:

That doesn’t have anything to do wi h how well the cowboys have drafted over the last 20 years.

About five years ago they were at the bottom of drafting after first round. They have gotten a lot better the last five years but they are still middle of the pack since 1996. And that’s with them hitting on a lot of first rounders lately.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/sports/nfl-draft-history/#DAL

No, it certainly doesn't.  Just recently, they have managed to do better in the draft, mostly because Jerry is no longer running things.  Only point I was making is that we shouldn't be expecting every 2nd+ pick to pan out.  

That's a great article that everyone should read.  +rep

 

[DougO 5243]

Jordan Matthews just signed with the Patriots for one-year, $1 million, only $170,000 guaranteed. 

This is a vastly better cheap signing than the Cowboys signing of Thompson. I always thought Matthews was a pretty decent receiver in bad situations. And if he isn't, he's cheap to cut. He's had three seasons over over 800 yards receiving and 20 TDs in four years. Thompson has 1032 yards and 4TDs total in six seasons. Matthews is even probably a safer bet than Hurns at a fraction of the price, though maybe not as much upside potential.

 

.

[TornACL 7698]

I don't love Jordan Matthews and he's coming off an injury riddled 2017. But I sure do like the economics. I am trying to see what Thompson did last year that would warrant doubling his pay over his 2017 1 year deal in Buffalo.

Ironically, I would assume Thompson saw more playing time last year because of Matthews' injuries.

[Amobie 58]

3 minutes ago, TornACL said:

I don't love Jordan Matthews and he's coming off an injury riddled 2017. But I sure do like the economics. I am trying to see what Thompson did last year that would warrant doubling his pay over his 2017 1 year deal in Buffalo.

Ironically, I would assume Thompson saw more playing time last year because of Matthews' injuries.

They must think that Buffalo was unable to properly utilize his skillset.  QB play in Buffalo has been pretty bad.

[DougO 5243]

Matthews had nearly the same number of catches in half the time and a much better target/catch rate. He has a history of being a decently reliable receiver, unlike Thompson. And he's dirt cheap.

4 hours ago, TornACL said:

I don't love Jordan Matthews and he's coming off an injury riddled 2017. But I sure do like the economics. I am trying to see what Thompson did last year that would warrant doubling his pay over his 2017 1 year deal in Buffalo.

Ironically, I would assume Thompson saw more playing time last year because of Matthews' injuries.

Correct. An older guy playing behind Matthews because he's not very good got a million guaranteed, while Matthews, with an actual track record of production and in his prime got a fraction to play for a smarter team that just traded away their top receiver.

[GOAT 1]

I've seen some people mention us drafting the Guard from UTEP with #19. Not sure how I feel about that.

[Patrick Bateman 3911]

8 hours ago, DougO said:

Jordan Matthews just signed with the Patriots for one-year, $1 million, only $170,000 guaranteed. 

This is a vastly better cheap signing than the Cowboys signing of Thompson. I always thought Matthews was a pretty decent receiver in bad situations. And if he isn't, he's cheap to cut. He's had three seasons over over 800 yards receiving and 20 TDs in four years. Thompson has 1032 yards and 4TDs total in six seasons. Matthews is even probably a safer bet than Hurns at a fraction of the price, though maybe not as much upside potential.

 

.

As usual, you can't argue with taking a cheap flier or the value it could provide the Pats.  They do well on signings like these every year.  If he sucks in camp or gets hurt, it's a tiny investment.  Matthews is a totally different guy than Thompson, who is a deep speed zone clear out type of guy.  Matthews best position is big slot WR which is where he had his most success with Philly.  He's probably a better comparison to Hurns.  Matthews has has had leg surgeries (Knee and ankle.  Blames the Philly Doc's for misdiagnosis) since he was last productive though.... Hurns has had concussion issues.  Matthews lacks explosive ability to get open vs most outside CBs but the Pats will give him as much opportunity to succeed as anybody in the slot....

 

[DougO 5243]

Your assessment is correct. But its hard to see Thompson's value with the Cowboys. It wouldn't have made a lot of sense to sign both Hurns and Matthews, but Matthews is a far better player than Thompson. Thompson didn't even play a significant amount of special teams after the first few games last year. He was an adequate KO returner at one point. I just have serious doubts about him being as much of a contributor as even Butler was. I wouldn't even bet on him sticking on the roster. It just seems like the Cowboys got nervous and jumped the gun with that signing.

Edited April 10, 2018 by DougO

[DougO 5243]

Matthews is a much better slot receiver than Hurns, as well. It's more his wheelhouse. Hurns was better playing the outside. They both have similar injury concerns, but Hurns was a lot more expensive.

Edited April 10, 2018 by DougO

[cmontexas 3270]

5 hours ago, GOAT said:

I've seen some people mention us drafting the Guard from UTEP with #19. Not sure how I feel about that.

Hernandez makes sense if we don't want to tie up 70 million at the guard position

[Vic Mackey 47010]

Hernandez makes sense if we don't want to tie up 70 million at the guard position

I would not be opposed to this if he's talented. You can't pay every single person on that line and tie up that much money. Especially when the defense is in the shape it is in.

[Farkimedes 23]

8 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Hernandez makes sense if we don't want to tie up 70 million at the guard position

They are going to resign him, I can't see how they don't. I hope they don't take a guard in 1, but interior OL is really bifurcated in this draft. If they don't take one of the 3 first round quality Guards ( 4 if you think Williams is a Guard, I personally don't ) in the 1st round, there isn't really anyone after that until the 5th round w/ the exception of Va-Tech's Wyatt Teller, and he's a round 3 - 4 type guy only if you're running a lot of Power / BoB stuff. Not a scheme fit at all for Dallas.

I would much prefer them take McGlinchey or Williams at 19 and just ride out an over-priced La'el Collins contract 

[Amobie 58]

8 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

10 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Hernandez makes sense if we don't want to tie up 70 million at the guard position

I would not be opposed to this if he's talented. You can't pay every single person on that line and tie up that much money. Especially when the defense is in the shape it is in.

The defense really isn't in that bad of shape.  They really are a player away on the DL, LB or the Secondary from having those units be complete.  If they can swing a trade to get Thomas here, the secondary is set.  If they can get 1 more guy who is able to cause havoc on the DL we should be set.  If they can get one more LB to emerge and fill in in case the guys we have get hurt, we are pretty much set personnel wise on defense.  

The real issue this team has is depth so when something goes wrong, they have a viable plan B.  That and the X's and O's guys have to do a better job of making adjustments and putting these guys in the right place.

[DougO 5243]

The defense is weak right down the middle. No inside penetration, poor inside run defense, poor back end coverage, LBs take poor angles and miss tackles.

[Vic Mackey 47010]

4 hours ago, Amobie said:

The defense really isn't in that bad of shape.  They really are a player away on the DL, LB or the Secondary from having those units be complete.  If they can swing a trade to get Thomas here, the secondary is set.  If they can get 1 more guy who is able to cause havoc on the DL we should be set.  If they can get one more LB to emerge and fill in in case the guys we have get hurt, we are pretty much set personnel wise on defense.  

The real issue this team has is depth so when something goes wrong, they have a viable plan B.  That and the X's and O's guys have to do a better job of making adjustments and putting these guys in the right place.

I disagree. The defense is not really getting any better. And they just let their mike LB walk and now we are left with a cripple and a guy made of glass. The guy we draft most likely won't be as good as Hitchens. And definitely no one left in free agency as good. So we just got weaker there. The middle of this defense is not good. Especially the LB and safety. That is how you build a strong defense. The middle of it and then the outside will look better. But we keep trying to go outside in. The opposite. Corners and DE is important but not before DT, LB and safety. That is how Seattle built their defense. Especially at the safety position. That is what made the Legion of Boom what it was. Earl and Chancellor were outstanding. Sherman does not look as good as he did without them 2. Yet, we ignore safety and continue to employ Jeff fucking Heath. When you are soft up the middle, you aren't going to have much success.

It's not even about the depth. We don't even have enough quality starters on defense to begin with. I just want to get that addressed before worrying about depth. You have to.

[Post Oak 20208]

I think its gonna be a G just because like last year with DE vs DB they didnt fewl like there was a lot of depth at de vs db. 

One of Hernandez Wynn or Daniels and im happy.

Hernandez is really good.  Hes a mauler.  Big physical.  Strong.  

[Amobie 58]

1 hour ago, Vic Mackey said:

I disagree. The defense is not really getting any better. And they just let their mike LB walk and now we are left with a cripple and a guy made of glass. The guy we draft most likely won't be as good as Hitchens. And definitely no one left in free agency as good. So we just got weaker there. The middle of this defense is not good. Especially the LB and safety. That is how you build a strong defense. The middle of it and then the outside will look better. But we keep trying to go outside in. The opposite. Corners and DE is important but not before DT, LB and safety. That is how Seattle built their defense. Especially at the safety position. That is what made the Legion of Boom what it was. Earl and Chancellor were outstanding. Sherman does not look as good as he did without them 2. Yet, we ignore safety and continue to employ Jeff fucking Heath. When you are soft up the middle, you aren't going to have much success.

It's not even about the depth. We don't even have enough quality starters on defense to begin with. I just want to get that addressed before worrying about depth. You have to.

I probably wasn't clear enough but my stance is that you need 3 players and the defense goes from slightly below average to good.  It's possible to accomplish that with the assets they have on draft day.  There are still safeties the Cowboys can go out and sign if they wanted to or trade for.  They can draft a 1 tech DT like Vea and the interior is fixed.  They can get a Mike in the draft as well.  The Cowboys play enough nickle the Mike isn't even on the field that much.  Not saying it will happen but it's at least possible.

 

 

 

[DougO 5243]

I'm predicting guard in 3rd or 4th round, after safety, WR, possibly DT. They may need to trade up to get another 3 and fill that need.

It's just too salary intensive to invest another first round salary against the cap.

[GOAT 1]

Draft Maurice Hurst if his health checks out. Dude reminds me of Aaron Donald.

[Sidney Sherman 66]

On 4/6/2018 at 2:51 PM, michaelpshayes said:

 2 playoff wins in 20 years

Yeah this is the most fucked up part. They wasted Romo's career, hope they do the opposite of what JJ says and Dak has a good run.

[Rabidhorn 121]

Dallas  a couple of DL, couple of LB's and a S

Offense needs a G, TE and a WR if they dump Dez

[Scholz 11938]

On ‎4‎/‎10‎/‎2018 at 9:43 AM, Amobie said:

The real issue this team has is depth so when something goes wrong, they have a viable plan B. 

That's just it.  Something will go wrong.  Starters will get hurt guaranteed.  You need quality depth at every spot.  That's why the Eagles won this past season, they adopted that Belichick method of gathering quality depth across the board. 

[TornACL 7698]

Dallas can't adopt that strategy of depth because they have too many pet cats they overpay at the first sign of success.

Meow, meow.

[Viper 12103]

McShay and Kiper Jr. just came out with 3rd mock drafts for the Cowboys that are pretty crappy (both have them taking Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State in the 2nd round). The more I think about it though I think our first three rounds need to cover LB, DT (1 tech) and OG. I'm not sure on what order yet, but I think a good enough OG can be found in rounds 2 or 3.

[Ricky Butler 2683]

You guys seem pretty down on the 'Boys. Zeke's back. They'll be good.

[Viper 12103]

http://www.dallascowboys.com/news/2018/04/11/possible-pick-speed-range-make-malik-jefferson-intriguing-lb-prospect

Quote

Possible Pick: Speed, Range Make Malik Jefferson An Intriguing LB Prospect

Wednesday, April 11, 2018 11:51 AM CDT

By Rob Phillips

DallasCowboys.com Staff Writer

(Editor’s Note: While the start of the 2017 NFL Draft isn’t until April 26, it’s never too early to profile some of the key participants. The staff of DallasCowboys.com intends to preview the landscape of the draft’s top prospect, with an emphasis on possible Cowboys draft picks – from the first round to the last. Today’s featured player is Texas’ Malik Jefferson.)

 

Read

 

• Name: Malik Jefferson
• Position: Linebacker
• College: Texas
• Height/Weight: 6-2 / 236
• Honors: Big 12 Co-Defensive Player of the Year in 2017; second-team All-American in 2017; two-time All-Big 12; two-time semifinalist for the Butkus Award, given to the best linebacker in the country.
• Key Stat: After posting a combined 123 tackles in his first two years as a starter, Jefferson racked up 110 stops in his All-American junior season with the Longhorns.

Where He’s Projected:

Most draft observers believe Jefferson will go off the board somewhere in the second or third round due to his outstanding ability to run and make tackles. His 4.3-second 40-yard dash ranked third among all linebackers at the NFL Scouting Combine.

 

How He Helps The Cowboys:

Linebacker depth is among the most pressing needs remaining this offseason, even with Jaylon Smith further and further removed from his devastating 2016 knee injury. Departed free agent Anthony Hitchens played three positions effectively for four seasons in Dallas, including the primary backup to Sean Lee. Jefferson has the speed and range to play middle linebacker and the weak side in a 4-3 like the Cowboys’ system.

 

• Had an up-and-down career at Texas. If he can develop some consistency overall, he has a chance to be a very productive player.
• Shows initial quickness on his reactions. Has to be careful not to get hooked on blocks. Tends to lunge as a tackler.
• He will guess on the fit. I’m not sure how well he sees things. Will take false steps and then have to rally back in position. Tends to get caught in trash.
• Doesn’t always play in balance. Has to have a clean path or he’s in trouble. Can get to the edge when he's clean.
• Ability to run is not a problem. When on the move he can make plays. Will retrace his steps to get in on the tackle.
• Needs to be more consistent wrapping up. Hit-and-miss as he plays.
• Movement skills give him a chance in coverage. His pro day showed his ability to turn and run with his man.  

 

[In10se 175]

When was the last time in the salary cap era a team won a super bowl while having a high priced receiver? 

[Angry Gorilla 1766]

The Eagles did it with Alshon Jeffery, but that was way back in Feb.