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What well know companies are going to go away because of this situation?

tbone_

By tbone_
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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I dunno, but I hope it's the people that build completely worthless strip centers instead of just letting weird shit like trees and streams endure. 

If ever we needed proof that we don't need every corner of suburbia to be covered in impervious retail, this is it. 

Also, GNC. 

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FORTY NINE TO ZERO

FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2652

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

I dunno, but I hope it's the people that build completely worthless strip centers instead of just letting weird shit like trees and streams endure. 

If ever we needed proof that we don't need every corner of suburbia to be covered in impervious retail, this is it. 

Also, GNC. 

God. One can wish. 

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

Posted
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4 hours ago, Lobo said:

I dunno, but I hope it's the people that build completely worthless strip centers instead of just letting weird shit like trees and streams endure. 

If ever we needed proof that we don't need every corner of suburbia to be covered in impervious retail, this is it. 

Also, GNC. 

This please ^^^^

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tbone_

tbone_ 14181

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I dunno, but I hope it's the people that build completely worthless strip centers instead of just letting weird shit like trees and streams endure. 
If ever we needed proof that we don't need every corner of suburbia to be covered in impervious retail, this is it. 
Also, GNC. 

The owners of all those strip centers and their lenders are going to be in for some pain for sure I think. They collected rent ok for April. May just started. Lots of people watching to see.
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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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If you're shorting middle market retail-centric public REIT's...congrats.  We've been figuring out a way to do this with bank branches that were end-cap anchors of PAD anchors for the last couple years (the real estate, not the bank itself obviously).  The best part is they volunteer their own demise because of how proud their fintech/core processor providers are about how efficient they're making them and how they don't need the G&A burn on real estate given digital/mobile capabilities and interfaces. 

Anyway, another one I'll throw out there is again, their real estate space not the industry itself...the insurance "agent" that has the 1200 square feet of prime real estate smack dab in the middle of town on the off chance you wake up Thursday morning and want to discuss umbrella insurance in person.  There are more State Farm offices in this country than there are McDonald's.  When people find out that they could be saving 25%, not by switching by Geico, but by simply removing Bob and his office from the fucking equation and still getting the good coverage that AllState provides, look out.  Lotsa empty storefronts coming.  And realtor offices.  I meet you at the house or You drive me around in your Lexus SUV.  We make offers online now.  We close at the title company.  I discuss financing at my bank.  Why the fuck do I need your $18,000/month office and two assistants on payroll again?  How exactly did that get me the contingencies I needed from the seller?  This pandemic made us realize some things are "a nice to have" and that the shit we barely cared about before is a complete and total waste of fucking money and we're gonna be tired of paying for it particularly since after the first joyful bolt of "back open for business" wears off, we're gonna just look for shit to get rid of.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13528

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

If you're shorting middle market retail-centric public REIT's...congrats.  We've been figuring out a way to do this with bank branches that were end-cap anchors of PAD anchors for the last couple years (the real estate, not the bank itself obviously).  The best part is they volunteer their own demise because of how proud their fintech/core processor providers are about how efficient they're making them and how they don't need the G&A burn on real estate given digital/mobile capabilities and interfaces. 

Anyway, another one I'll throw out there is again, their real estate space not the industry itself...the insurance "agent" that has the 1200 square feet of prime real estate smack dab in the middle of town on the off chance you wake up Thursday morning and want to discuss umbrella insurance in person.  There are more State Farm offices in this country than there are McDonald's.  When people find out that they could be saving 25%, not by switching by Geico, but by simply removing Bob and his office from the fucking equation and still getting the good coverage that AllState provides, look out.  Lotsa empty storefronts coming.  And realtor offices.  I meet you at the house or You drive me around in your Lexus SUV.  We make offers online now.  We close at the title company.  I discuss financing at my bank.  Why the fuck do I need your $18,000/month office and two assistants on payroll again?  How exactly did that get me the contingencies I needed from the seller?  This pandemic made us realize some things are "a nice to have" and that the shit we barely cared about before is a complete and total waste of fucking money and we're gonna be tired of paying for it particularly since after the first joyful bolt of "back open for business" wears off, we're gonna just look for shit to get rid of.

People are afraid of making an obvious decision about their insurance, electric company, bank, whatever that will come back to haunt them. Or they see Jerry the State Farm guy around the neighborhood and firing him would be uncomfortable so it’s worth it to overpay. Amway isn’t the only business that counts on personal relationships for a large chunk of revenue.

also if everyone made rational purchases, the economy would be very different. Many people wouldn’t have jobs. 

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utee94

utee94 15868

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

spacer.png

Toys R Us hurts, because my kids are finally old enough to have really appreciated a store like Toys R Us.

Oh yeah, well that's too bad.  When I was a kid, I didn't get the luxury of Toys R Us.  I had to settle for the miniscule toy aisle at a Gibson's or a Winn's or Edison's,  or if I were REALLY gotdam lucky, a once per quarter trip to Best products.

So you and your fancy childhood growing up with Toys R Us can go eff yourself.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89824

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19 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Oh yeah, well that's too bad.  When I was a kid, I didn't get the luxury of Toys R Us.  I had to settle for the miniscule toy aisle at a Gibson's or a Winn's or Edison's,  or if I were REALLY gotdam lucky, a once per quarter trip to Best products.

So you and your fancy childhood growing up with Toys R Us can go eff yourself.

I only had a few years as a kid where I had access to it, and even that required an hour’s drive.  It may have well have been the Holy of Holies.   TG&Y, Service Merchandise, Sears, K-Mart were it.  And the Sears, JC Penny, Montgomery Ward, and S&H Green Stamp catalogues were my toy porn.  

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BNB

BNB 100

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5 hours ago, utee94 said:

Oh yeah, well that's too bad.  When I was a kid, I didn't get the luxury of Toys R Us.  I had to settle for the miniscule toy aisle at a Gibson's or a Winn's or Edison's,  or if I were REALLY gotdam lucky, a once per quarter trip to Best products.

So you and your fancy childhood growing up with Toys R Us can go eff yourself.

 

I love going to Gibsons everytime I'm in Kerrville.  Cool store.

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G650

G650 14278

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5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I only had a few years as a kid where I had access to it, and even that required an hour’s drive.  It may have well have been the Holy of Holies.   TG&Y, Service Merchandise, Sears, K-Mart were it.  And the Sears, JC Penny, Montgomery Ward, and S&H Green Stamp catalogues were my toy porn.  

This right here.

 

One time we got an FAO Schwartz catalog. It was the gift itself.

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I only had a few years as a kid where I had access to it, and even that required an hour’s drive.  It may have well have been the Holy of Holies.   TG&Y, Service Merchandise, Sears, K-Mart were it.  And the Sears, JC Penny, Montgomery Ward, and S&H Green Stamp catalogues were my toy porn.  

Holy cow, I haven't thought about Service Merchandise in quite awhile.  their catalog was the cat's pajamas back in junior high.  Once you got past Toys R' us, there was Service Merchandise for cool stuff for your room, sporting goods, crappy watches, etc.  That and McDade's Catalog House were the go-to's as a tweener in Chicagoland in the 1980's.  Man that takes me back.  Have some rep.  

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HenryJames

HenryJames 66188

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6 hours ago, utee94 said:

Oh yeah, well that's too bad.  When I was a kid, I didn't get the luxury of Toys R Us.  I had to settle for the miniscule toy aisle at a Gibson's or a Winn's or Edison's,  or if I were REALLY gotdam lucky, a once per quarter trip to Best products.

So you and your fancy childhood growing up with Toys R Us can go eff yourself.

 

You sounded poor.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13528

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I only had a few years as a kid where I had access to it, and even that required an hour’s drive.  It may have well have been the Holy of Holies.   TG&Y, Service Merchandise, Sears, K-Mart were it.  And the Sears, JC Penny, Montgomery Ward, and S&H Green Stamp catalogues were my toy porn.  

Haven’t thought of Toys, Games  & Yo-yos in decades.   In hindsight those catalogues were ridiculous in that you might have a postage stamp size picture and a 10 word description about the toy, and you would ask your parents to get that for you as your main birthday gift. Now kids get 10 minute unboxing and usage videos, perhaps will a follow up months later.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40920

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15 hours ago, Lobo said:

I dunno, but I hope it's the people that build completely worthless strip centers instead of just letting weird shit like trees and streams endure. 

If ever we needed proof that we don't need every corner of suburbia to be covered in impervious retail, this is it. 

Also, GNC. 

Heh, my brother’s SIL worked for a developer in Houston who did just that all over Harris County for decades. She made shitloads of money setting up the deals. She also used to be president of HISD school board.

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Aqua Buddha

Aqua Buddha 14624

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11 hours ago, Lobo said:

If you're shorting middle market retail-centric public REIT's...congrats.  We've been figuring out a way to do this with bank branches that were end-cap anchors of PAD anchors for the last couple years (the real estate, not the bank itself obviously).  The best part is they volunteer their own demise because of how proud their fintech/core processor providers are about how efficient they're making them and how they don't need the G&A burn on real estate given digital/mobile capabilities and interfaces. 

Anyway, another one I'll throw out there is again, their real estate space not the industry itself...the insurance "agent" that has the 1200 square feet of prime real estate smack dab in the middle of town on the off chance you wake up Thursday morning and want to discuss umbrella insurance in person.  There are more State Farm offices in this country than there are McDonald's.  When people find out that they could be saving 25%, not by switching by Geico, but by simply removing Bob and his office from the fucking equation and still getting the good coverage that AllState provides, look out.  Lotsa empty storefronts coming.  And realtor offices.  I meet you at the house or You drive me around in your Lexus SUV.  We make offers online now.  We close at the title company.  I discuss financing at my bank.  Why the fuck do I need your $18,000/month office and two assistants on payroll again?  How exactly did that get me the contingencies I needed from the seller?  This pandemic made us realize some things are "a nice to have" and that the shit we barely cared about before is a complete and total waste of fucking money and we're gonna be tired of paying for it particularly since after the first joyful bolt of "back open for business" wears off, we're gonna just look for shit to get rid of.

Good write up.  I'm very bearish on commercial real estate as well.

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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10 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I'd settle for tearing down the monstrous malls that are 99% empty but have your aforementioned bank and a TGIF and two or three other shitty chain POS places that sell shit you can buy cheaper from China or in a bag at HEB in the frozen section. All the non-food fucking come from China any fucking way. Why can't we tear down the huge AMC theater housing center called a mall and plant some fucking trees.

Can we start with West Oaks and Greenspointe in Houston?

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BevoSwag

BevoSwag 272

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8 hours ago, utee94 said:

Oh yeah, well that's too bad.  When I was a kid, I didn't get the luxury of Toys R Us.  I had to settle for the miniscule toy aisle at a Gibson's or a Winn's or Edison's,  or if I were REALLY gotdam lucky, a once per quarter trip to Best products.

So you and your fancy childhood growing up with Toys R Us can go eff yourself.

 

I've never heard of any of those companies.  Where do you live?

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utee94

utee94 15868

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6 minutes ago, BevoSwag said:

I've never heard of any of those companies.  Where do you live?

You've never heard of Toys R Us??? :)

I was born and raised in Austin.  Grew up in the 70s/80s.  Gibson's, Winn's, and Edison's were small department stores with locations in North Austin, mostly around the Burnet/Anderson Lane intersection, which is where I grew up (my parents still live in the same house).

Oh, and good call on Service Merchandise, I'd forgotten that one.

Also, I had no idea there were still Gibson's around.  I might stop next time I'm in Kerrville just to see what it's like.  That is, if it survives the coronas.

Edited by utee94
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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8833

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5 minutes ago, utee94 said:

You've never heard of Toys R Us??? :)

I was born and raised in Austin.  Grew up in the 70s/80s.  Gibson's, Winn's, and Edison's were small department stores with locations in North Austin, mostly around the Burnet/Anderson Lane intersection, which is where I grew up (my parents still live in the same house).

Oh, and good call on Service Merchandise, I'd forgotten that one.

Also, I had no idea there were still Gibson's around.  I might stop next time I'm in Kerrville just to see what it's like.  That is, if it survives the coronas.

I didn't even know Gibsons was still in existence.

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RollLeft

RollLeft 5045

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Posted (edited)
12 hours ago, Lobo said:

If you're shorting middle market retail-centric public REIT's...congrats.  We've been figuring out a way to do this with bank branches that were end-cap anchors of PAD anchors for the last couple years (the real estate, not the bank itself obviously).  The best part is they volunteer their own demise because of how proud their fintech/core processor providers are about how efficient they're making them and how they don't need the G&A burn on real estate given digital/mobile capabilities and interfaces. 

Anyway, another one I'll throw out there is again, their real estate space not the industry itself...the insurance "agent" that has the 1200 square feet of prime real estate smack dab in the middle of town on the off chance you wake up Thursday morning and want to discuss umbrella insurance in person.  There are more State Farm offices in this country than there are McDonald's.  When people find out that they could be saving 25%, not by switching by Geico, but by simply removing Bob and his office from the fucking equation and still getting the good coverage that AllState provides, look out.  Lotsa empty storefronts coming.  And realtor offices.  I meet you at the house or You drive me around in your Lexus SUV.  We make offers online now.  We close at the title company.  I discuss financing at my bank.  Why the fuck do I need your $18,000/month office and two assistants on payroll again?  How exactly did that get me the contingencies I needed from the seller?  This pandemic made us realize some things are "a nice to have" and that the shit we barely cared about before is a complete and total waste of fucking money and we're gonna be tired of paying for it particularly since after the first joyful bolt of "back open for business" wears off, we're gonna just look for shit to get rid of.

Agree regarding realtors, insurance agents not entirely.  I'm sure many insurance agents would be all for dumping brick and mortar costs if they felt it didn't impact the impression of their firm by average joe q public.  

Edited by RollLeft
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MAUFRAIS

MAUFRAIS 6642

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Holy cow, I haven't thought about Service Merchandise in quite awhile.  their catalog was the cat's pajamas back in junior high.  Once you got past Toys R' us, there was Service Merchandise for cool stuff for your room, sporting goods, crappy watches, etc.  That and McDade's Catalog House were the go-to's as a tweener in Chicagoland in the 1980's.  Man that takes me back.  Have some rep.  


Also solo serve
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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26476

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2 hours ago, Armybrat said:

Heh, my brother’s SIL worked for a developer in Houston who did just that all over Harris County for decades. She made shitloads of money setting up the deals. She also used to be president of HISD school board.

So, laying waste to both trees AND minds.

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RDCanecutter

RDCanecutter 26476

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10 hours ago, utee94 said:

Oh yeah, well that's too bad.  When I was a kid, I didn't get the luxury of Toys R Us.  I had to settle for the miniscule toy aisle at a Gibson's or a Winn's or Edison's,  or if I were REALLY gotdam lucky, a once per quarter trip to Best products.

So you and your fancy childhood growing up with Toys R Us can go eff yourself.

 

Ditto. And

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Macanudo

Macanudo 13017

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Dont tear malls down.  Turn them into senior centers.  Individual stores could be doctor offices or services seniors need access to.  Hell put social security offices and DMV offices in there too.  Add a few more restaruants/cafeterias. 

The only downside would be trying to drive anywhere near that.  All those shitty older drivers would make the area a fender bender death trap.

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