2020 Fuck Fantasy Football

[Gourmand 7774]

Russell Wilson has posted these numbers by week this season ( 6 pt pass TDs). Would you trust him in your fantasy title gameat home against the Rams when he only scored 12.4 against them in week 10?

43

46.3

49.95

28.5

32.65

39.8

39.35

30

12.4

26.05

18.7

19.65

32.3

15.2

Or would you roll with Drew Brees at home vs Minnesota or Baker Mayfield @ NYJ? Tua @ LV? Trubisky @ Jac?

[Prepuce of Doom 21079]

44 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

 The risk is that Coutee (and even Hansen) have been targeted by Watson lately in the red zone, but I feel like Cooks is due after the last couple of weeks. He's still very much involved and getting targets, just not for TDs. I think Watson is going to get points off Cincy at home and this sets up as a let down game for Cincy after their shocking win over Pittsburgh. I would lean towards playing Cooks to offset Watson's output because that 1 pt ppr + yardage differential gives you a slight edge for every completion to Cooks. 

Thanks! 

That's pretty much my reasoning, and the fact that I have the edge in terms of projected points makes me feel like it's less risky - I don't know whether I would go with Cooks if I was the underdog going in... 

Edit @Gourmand - to make things even more interesting, I just put in a waiver wire claim for Hansen. I'll have a couple of days to think about it, but the two of them could be an entertaining way to end the season... 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Prepuce of Doom

[HornPhD 1368]

1 hour ago, Gourmand said:

Russell Wilson has posted these numbers by week this season ( 6 pt pass TDs). Would you trust him in your fantasy title gameat home against the Rams when he only scored 12.4 against them in week 10?

43

46.3

49.95

28.5

32.65

39.8

39.35

30

12.4

26.05

18.7

19.65

32.3

15.2

Or would you roll with Drew Brees at home vs Minnesota or Baker Mayfield @ NYJ? Tua @ LV? Trubisky @ Jac?

Russell, Mayfield, Brees is my order. Full disclosure...I’m several Jamos into the evening. 

[Gourmand 7774]

1 minute ago, HornPhD said:

Russell, Mayfield, Brees is my order. Full disclosure...I’m several Jamos into the evening. 

I want to do it, I really do. But I just did a dive into the game logs and the Rams haven't allowed shit to opposing quarterbacks. They haven't allowed 25+ fantasy points to the position since wk 6 vs Garoppolo. The only other was Josh Allen in week 3 and he went off for 42 pts.

[Prepuce of Doom 21079]

I wouldn't start Brees under any circumstances. I feel like he could be knocked out of the game on any play. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Prepuce of Doom

[Party_Taco 3740]

I'd lean Hurts.
Buffalo/ NE game might be something like 19-6

See, for some reason I think Buffalo wants to make a statement and bury the Pats, and Allen shows no sign of slowing down... that said, may sign Baker off waivers and continue to consider throughout the week.

Has Buff given any indication or resting players? If not, I think this is personal, and they’re gonna beat the Pats while they’re down.

[youdunnf'dup 2147]

2 hours ago, Gourmand said:

Russell Wilson has posted these numbers by week this season ( 6 pt pass TDs). Would you trust him in your fantasy title gameat home against the Rams when he only scored 12.4 against them in week 10?

43

46.3

49.95

28.5

32.65

39.8

39.35

30

12.4

26.05

18.7

19.65

32.3

15.2

Or would you roll with Drew Brees at home vs Minnesota or Baker Mayfield @ NYJ? Tua @ LV? Trubisky @ Jac?

It would take balls and/or drugs, but baker has been hot as shit lately. Russ vs the rams in what is now a must win game for the rams is a tall task. 

[youdunnf'dup 2147]

12 hours ago, HornPhD said:

Championship game. Superflex position:

Hurts at Dallas 

or 

Allen at NE

I think Hurts is a fucking smash play this week. We (aka Jaylen smith) haven’t been able to handle mobile qbs for a few years now. Hurts should have a monster game. 

[HornPhD 1368]

3 hours ago, Gourmand said:

I want to do it, I really do. But I just did a dive into the game logs and the Rams haven't allowed shit to opposing quarterbacks. They haven't allowed 25+ fantasy points to the position since wk 6 vs Garoppolo. The only other was Josh Allen in week 3 and he went off for 42 pts.

Wilson at home gives him the edge. And in the NFL (all sports, really), previous performance is not indicative of the future. 

[ballrific 215]

I would love to have a "problem" of choosing between Wilson or Hurts...stuck with Tanne @ GB but could be worse I guess; maybe it'll be a shootout.

[Sgt Hulk 13777]

For the championship 

mariotta vs Miami

Goff vs Seattle 

[Bregs 225]

Pick you Top 2 RB's.  Non-PPR:

Melvin Gordon

Antonio Gibson (assuming he can go)

Wayne Gallman

 

[shadow_operative2.0 15997]

Gotta go top two, especially after watching that shitfest SNF game by NYG’s offense. Hobbled Daniel is better than Colt, but still. 

[Gourmand 7774]

4 hours ago, ballrific said:

I would love to have a "problem" of choosing between Wilson or Hurts...stuck with Tanne @ GB but could be worse I guess; maybe it'll be a shootout.

 I'd take Tannehill over Wilson this week. GB is better than league average against QBs but nowhere near as good as the Rams D. Additionally, that GB/Tenn game has the highest o/u on the slate and I think the Titans are going to have to throw to keep up with Rodgers, Adams, and Tonyan. The way to beat the Packers is by running the ball, but we saw last week how even in a plus-game script for Henry against a weak rushing defense, Tannehill can score multiple TDs. That game should be fun to watch Sunday night.

 

1 hour ago, Sgt Hulk said:

For the championship 

mariotta vs Miami

Goff vs Seattle 

Goff and it's not even close. Akers is out. Goff didn't get any TDs last time against Sea but he did throw it 37 times for 302 yds and in the last five meetings with Seattle, Goff has eclipsed 300 yds four times and has two multi-TD games. I'd put more faith in him against the Seattle defense than the Mariota vs Miami. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Gourmand

[Party_Taco 3740]

Need some help here, mainly with QB and WR, but would take advice across the board:

[shadow_operative2.0 15997]

I’m kinda digging Le’Veon over Kupp in flex. 

[Scraps 13561]

For the championship 
mariotta vs Miami
Goff vs Seattle 

Pick someone up lol

[Gourmand 7774]

@Party_Taco I think you definitely have to stick with Josh Allen, he's playing the Pats on MNF and Buffalo wants a statement game to punctuate their division title. He's always a threat for 40+ pts and if you have those points on your bench in favor of Baker and the Cleveland Browns, that would be rough. Not to suggest Baker's not an enticing play, I just think Josh Allen is must start. The only QBs I'm starting ahead of him this week are Mahomes and Rodgers, maybe Brady. 

Watch those practice reports closely on Keenan Allen. I think he may not play this week or at least be on a snap count diet, so I would probably swap him out for Cooper.

 

 

[ballrific 215]

Goff and it's not even close. Akers is out. Goff didn't get any TDs last time against Sea but he did throw it 37 times for 302 yds and in the last five meetings with Seattle, Goff has eclipsed 300 yds four times and has two multi-TD games. I'd put more faith in him against the Seattle defense than the Mariota vs Miami. 

Yeah, hopefully Titans are chasing points.

And Goff fosho..

[Party_Taco 3740]

Yeah, I’m kinda thinking Allen drops off in favor of Cupp/Bell but dammit I need Metcalf to show up.

Cooper is just as likely to put up 15 as he is at this point...

Agree that Buffalo looks to make a statement this week... believe I posited the same up thread, but there’s always the risk that they pump the brakes whereas there is zero question that Cleveland puts the pedal down.

No easy answers here...

[WillUSAF 226]

You have the 2 hottest QBs! I'd keep Josh on MNF. 

[capnamerca 571]

First time posting on this thread this year. I started my FFL season with a pretty lackluster attitude, but going 12-3 and making the championship game improves attitudes considerably. Would love some input on Flex ...

RBs go Ekeler and Cook

WRs go ABrown, Hopkins (Murray is my QB too)

Flex options are ARobinson, Dobbins, and Lockett.

 

By points, my starting RBs and WRs are correct, and the Flex spot goes to ARobinson. But Dobbins is on a hell of a hot streak, and playing the woeful Giants.  Ekeler is a re-injury risk, too, although he looked strong last week. 

Right now I'm leaning Dobbins over Ekeler at RB, and ARobinson in Flex. Thoughts?

Edit: Scoring is 6pt TDs, 1pt per 10 yards rushing or receiving, bonuses for 100 yard games and 20+ yard gains (we definitely prioritize "explosive plays")

Edited December 24, 2020 by capnamerca

[HornPhD 1368]

28 minutes ago, capnamerca said:

First time posting on this thread this year. I started my FFL season with a pretty lackluster attitude, but going 12-3 and making the championship game improves attitudes considerably. Would love some input on Flex ...

RBs go Ekeler and Cook

WRs go ABrown, Hopkins (Murray is my QB too)

Flex options are ARobinson, Dobbins, and Lockett.

 

By points, my starting RBs and WRs are correct, and the Flex spot goes to ARobinson. But Dobbins is on a hell of a hot streak, and playing the woeful Giants.  Ekeler is a re-injury risk, too, although he looked strong last week. 

Right now I'm leaning Dobbins over Ekeler at RB, and ARobinson in Flex. Thoughts?

Edit: Scoring is 6pt TDs, 1pt per 10 yards rushing or receiving, bonuses for 100 yard games and 20+ yard gains (we definitely prioritize "explosive plays")

You may be overthinking this one.

[capnamerca 571]

14 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

You may be overthinking this one.

Oh, almost assuredly I am. But this is my longest-running league, I haven't won since 2006, and I'm the best team by several hundred points over the regular season. I'd really like to not come in 2nd due to a fluke.

All three RBs save cook, and ARobinson, are projected between 9.8 and 10.8 points. There's no obvious play.

[EvilCaseMcCoy 691]

3 hours ago, WillUSAF said:

You have the 2 hottest QBs! I'd keep Josh on MNF. 

Man Josh scares me. Not only did he have a terrible stat line the last time he faced the pats, but Bellicheck's not the type of coach to just roll over and let a perrineal division punching bag make a statement on MNF.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the pats won that game. 

[HornPhD 1368]

1 hour ago, capnamerca said:

Oh, almost assuredly I am. But this is my longest-running league, I haven't won since 2006, and I'm the best team by several hundred points over the regular season. I'd really like to not come in 2nd due to a fluke.

All three RBs save cook, and ARobinson, are projected between 9.8 and 10.8 points. There's no obvious play.

I’m guilty of overthinking things, as well.

The fantasypros rankings I use both have Ekeler and ARob projected as top 10 in their position categories. Ekeler is #4 and Dobbins is #12. 

Broncos and Giants Ds are both reported to be better for receiving RBs. 

[Gourmand 7774]

2 hours ago, capnamerca said:

First time posting on this thread this year. I started my FFL season with a pretty lackluster attitude, but going 12-3 and making the championship game improves attitudes considerably. Would love some input on Flex ...

RBs go Ekeler and Cook

WRs go ABrown, Hopkins (Murray is my QB too)

Flex options are ARobinson, Dobbins, and Lockett.

 

By points, my starting RBs and WRs are correct, and the Flex spot goes to ARobinson. But Dobbins is on a hell of a hot streak, and playing the woeful Giants.  Ekeler is a re-injury risk, too, although he looked strong last week. 

Right now I'm leaning Dobbins over Ekeler at RB, and ARobinson in Flex. Thoughts?

Edit: Scoring is 6pt TDs, 1pt per 10 yards rushing or receiving, bonuses for 100 yard games and 20+ yard gains (we definitely prioritize "explosive plays")

I own Dobbins as well, but I wouldn't even consider starting him over Ekeler regardless of matchup. Dobbins is getting the bulk of the carries now but Edwards is still getting about 40+% of the snap counts in that offense, not to mention the risk of both Edward AND LJ vulturing TDs from Dobbins. On the other hand, when Ekeler plays he dominates the snap counts in the backfield (65%+) and touches and he has 38(!) targets in the last four games. You're taking a big risk imo keeping him out of your lineup on a week when Keenan Allen may not play and at least won't be fully healthy. 

[WillUSAF 226]

1 hour ago, EvilCaseMcCoy said:

Man Josh scares me. Not only did he have a terrible stat line the last time he faced the pats, but Bellicheck's not the type of coach to just roll over and let a perrineal division punching bag make a statement on MNF.  I honestly wouldn't be surprised if the pats won that game. 

I'm a huge Browns fan and I live in Cleveland. While Baker is magical right now I think that against the Jets they will run the rock with Chubb and Hunt.

[capnamerca 571]

23 minutes ago, Gourmand said:

I own Dobbins as well, but I wouldn't even consider starting him over Ekeler regardless of matchup. Dobbins is getting the bulk of the carries now but Edwards is still getting about 40+% of the snap counts in that offense, not to mention the risk of both Edward AND LJ vulturing TDs from Dobbins. On the other hand, when Ekeler plays he dominates the snap counts in the backfield (65%+) and touches and he has 38(!) targets in the last four games. You're taking a big risk imo keeping him out of your lineup on a week when Keenan Allen may not play and at least won't be fully healthy. 

What about Dobbins vs. ARobinson for the Flex spot, then? (I love this analysis for starting RB, btw. I hadn't considered total touches).

[EvilCaseMcCoy 691]

42 minutes ago, HornPhD said:

I’m guilty of overthinking things, as well.

The fantasypros rankings I use both have Ekeler and ARob projected as top 10 in their position categories. Ekeler is #4 and Dobbins is #12. 

Broncos and Giants Ds are both reported to be better for receiving RBs. 

Do you pay for fantasy pros or just roll with their free offering? That site has been a godsend for my fantasy stress. 

[HornPhD 1368]

20 minutes ago, EvilCaseMcCoy said:

Do you pay for fantasy pros or just roll with their free offering? That site has been a godsend for my fantasy stress. 

I’ve paid for the basic account the past two seasons, which allows me to synch my league’s scoring. It definitely helped in terms of planning for the draft and decision-making during the draft and season. I won our 12-team league last year and am in the championship game this season. 

[Gourmand 7774]

58 minutes ago, capnamerca said:

What about Dobbins vs. ARobinson for the Flex spot, then? (I love this analysis for starting RB, btw. I hadn't considered total touches).

That's a very good question and a tough call because both are very good plays with good matchup and similar implied team totals. The Vegas line has BAL at 28 pts, CHI at 27.75. The Ravens offense is red hot right now and has scored 40+ in three straight, so there's ample opportunity for Dobbins to do well, but the wild card is Ingram. If he's active, that could cut into the rb shares slightly and there's always the chance (albeit increasingly slim) that he vultures a score. The trend iirc has been for him to come in early and then disappear. 

Robinson is Trubisky's favorite target and gets a weak Jacksonville secondary to feast on. He has 44% of the entire wr target share for the Bears this season (133 total) and the next closest guy is Mooney (78). Since their bye in week 11, he has 13, 7, 13, and 5 targets and lead their offense in targets each game. He has three TDs over that span, each from inside the ten yd line and has six plays of 20yds or greater. He has three 100+yd games on the season vs 1 100+ yd game for Dobbins.

I think with your scoring system rewarding bonus points for bigger plays and bigger days, you are better off going with the guy who is a focal point of a lesser offense than an emerging player in a rb committee on a better offense.

My .02......

 

[Sgt Hulk 13777]

Browns or bears defense are all the trendy streaming def this week. Which one would you stream as they are playing the 2 shittiest teams 

second

robinson with jville looking suspect would you start Zach moss over him?

 

I have pollard too but zeke is trying to come back 

[Gourmand 7774]

Not Moss. Robinson if he's playing because he's always involved in the offense and doesn't get scripted out; otherwise Pollard.

[RiverwalkMiner 257]

Giovanni is available and I'm seeing Drake on a few "sit" lists, but I've rolled with him most of the year.  I also have Gaskin sitting on my bench. Maybe move one into flex? Right now, I have Gage.

I'm overthinking this final game, but my dad is about to pass away and all this extra research  is actually a decent distraction. 

[HornPhD 1368]

1 hour ago, RiverwalkMiner said:

Giovanni is available and I'm seeing Drake on a few "sit" lists, but I've rolled with him most of the year.  I also have Gaskin sitting on my bench. Maybe move one into flex? Right now, I have Gage.

I'm overthinking this final game, but my dad is about to pass away and all this extra research  is actually a decent distraction. 

I’d go with Gage. Especially if Julio is out. Falcons will be throwing. A lot. 

[ballrific 215]

KC or Fins D?

[HornPhD 1368]

53 minutes ago, ballrific said:

KC or Fins D?

KC 

[Deej 76818]

Feels good to have Kamara in the title game.

[Michael Knight 12986]

Kamara just won alot of people their league

[Gourmand 7774]

Feels good to have Kamara in the title game.

unless you got bumped out of the playoffs with an 8-5 record and second most pts in the league because of dumb 3-way tiebreaker rules.

fuck Taysom Hill.

[RiverwalkMiner 257]

Nothing like being down 49 after 1 game. Any hail mary magic in stacking Eagles?  Half point PPR. 

[Gourmand 7774]

Nothing like being down 49 after 1 game. Any hail mary magic in stacking Eagles?  Half point PPR. 

probably a good idea. greg ward or Alshon Jeffrey.

[Firemans4Horn 18085]

 

sorry to everyone up against Kamara

[Gourmand 7774]

Lost in the Kamara beatdown was the fucking Irv Smith two score day. My opponent in my main league where I'm in the title game had Hunter Henry starting and picked up Smith to play against me when Henry was declared out.

[Blotto 23538]

Ha. I snuck into the playoffs as the 6 six seed but was leaking oil with Kamara sucking ass with Hill at QB. Knocked off #3 and #2 in the playoffs the last two weeks and feeling pretty good right about now...

 

[shadow_operative2.0 15997]

Quote

New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara had quite a gift for his fantasy football managers on Christmas: a performance worth 56.2 points in PPR formats, as he tied the NFL record for rushing touchdowns during a game (six) in what is the championship week in most leagues.

While it wasn't the highest single-game total of 2020 -- that honor still belongs to Tyreek Hill, who scored 57.9 points in Week 12 -- it was the most by a running back this season.

In fact, it was the most by any running back since Jamaal Charles scored 59.5 points in Week 15 of the 2013 season, and it was the fifth-best single-game total by any NFL running back since at least 1950.

Only one player -- Jerry Rice, with 59.9 in 1995 -- managed more PPR fantasy points in a Week 16 game.

Considering Kamara resided on a finalist's roster in 32% of ESPN leagues, the fifth-highest rate by any running back, this game on its own might decide a lot of league championships. It gives the team that rosters him a sizable advantage entering the remainder of the Week 16 slate. And just to put into perspective what this might mean, the week's highest-scoring running back in each of the 15 previous weeks averaged 36.8 PPR fantasy points. Kamara's Friday total was nearly 20 points greater than that.

Top PPR performances since 1950 are in the link, only Jamaal Charles in ‘13 beats Tyreek & Alvin in last decade. 

https://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/insider/story/_/id/30597510/fantasy-football-where-does-saints-alvin-kamara-6-td-562-point-day-stand-history

[closetohumping 17444]

Kamara was out of the playoffs in both of my leagues.  

I sat Gronk and he scores a td in the first drive.  Damn

[Vic Mackey 47076]

Brees getting hurt was the fucking worst for Kamara. I had to play the first round with Brees still hurt. I score 107 total and lose. Brees comes back the next week and my team put up 145 the next week and right now this week with just Kamara, Brady and Evans so far, 104 total. With a whole second half and 6 more players to go tomorrow. Projected to get 193. 

Fuck. 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Vic Mackey

[EvilCaseMcCoy 691]

16 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:

Brees getting hurt was the fucking worst for Kamara. I had to play the first round with Brees still hurt. I score 107 total and lose. Brees comes back the next week and my team put up 145 the next week and right now this week with just Kamara, Brady and Evans so far, 104 total. With a whole second half and 6 more players to go tomorrow. Projected to get 193. 

Fuck. 

Hopefully brady goes for the record.  Just 4 more TDs!