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Donald Trump 2018

TheFlyingBoat

By TheFlyingBoat
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Gengs1

Gengs1 2583

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Violence may be inevitable either way it goes.  I hope that if Dems take Congress in the midterms and impeach doofus that the trumpkins will go back to being keyboard warriors only, but there's no guarantee of that.

They are all bark, most of them are overweight and on Medicare to really fight. Take their medications away and you have a problem 

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M12BH
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SInce y'all seem to be my clearinghouse for all things political, let me tell a story.  A couple of them, actually.  Three, if you want to be specific. When I was 14 I went with a family frien

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45674

Posted
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1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

While only one is based in reality, both sides are convinced that November will go in their favor. I think it is inevitable that some members of the losing group will have a violent response to the results.

Let's assume this happens, even on a small, isolated level.  Has that happened in modern times over an impeachment/election?

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
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13 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

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Which do you think likely had a bigger influence on the outcome of the election:

1) The Russians hacking the DNC and Podesta's emails, releasing them to the public, and posting picture of Hillary arm wrestling Satan on facebook; or

2) An American "media outlet" continuously stoking "Hillary only has 6 months to live" and coordinating the killing of negative stories that would have likely buried trump at that point in the cycle; or

3) The director of the FBI going off protocol and making an ordeal out of Clinton's server at a crucial point in the election.

Tough to isolate the independent contributions, but I'd probably go 3>2>1 

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23367

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Which do you think likely had a bigger influence on the outcome of the election:

1) The Russians hacking the DNC and Podesta's emails, releasing them to the public, and posting picture of Hillary arm wrestling Satan on facebook; or

2) An American "media outlet" continuously stoking "Hillary only has 6 months to live" and coordinating the killing of negative stories that would have likely buried trump at that point in the cycle; or

3) The director of the FBI going off protocol and making an ordeal out of Clinton's server at a crucial point in the election.

Tough to isolate the independent contributions, but I'd probably go 3>2>1 


I’d say it was Cambridge Analytica and the Russian influence machine in conjunction with Comey’s reopening that had the most consequential impact on the election. It’s objectively absurd to think Comey alone reopening the case persuaded enough voters to not vote for Clinton that late in the game to swing the election.

The impact of the influence operation and syncing the messaging with Trump’s rhetoric is where the damage was done. The Comey memo played into that operation.

Blaming it all on Comey seems like a convenient scapegoat when there was a well documented and sophisticated Russian military operation working in the background along with Bannon/Cambridge Analytica.

The Comey memo was like the warhead to the influence machine’s ICBM late in the game.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
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3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:


It was Cambridge Analytica and the Russian influence machine in conjunction with Comey’s reopening that had the most measurable impact on voters. It’s objectively absurd to think Comey alone reopening the case persuaded enough voters to not vote for Clinton that late in the game to swing the election.

Nate Silver's analysis from last May. 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election

And his analysis from this February.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-did-russian-interference-affect-the-2016-election/

How Much Did Russian Interference Affect The 2016 Election?

 

My conclusion is fairly consistent with Nate's. Except he hasn't modeled the counterfactual of what might have happened if banging porn stars and playmates was in wide circulation in the days immediately prior to the election.  

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Todd Gack

Todd Gack 432

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It's just both of them talking over each other.  What a shitfest... is there any point on having that skeletor woman on any network other than fox and expecting anything other than insincere bullshit.  She just asserted that Dotard isn't a liar because he hasn't been charged with anything.  Jesus...

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Bullneck

Bullneck 19079

Posted
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Just now, Todd Gack said:

It's just both of them talking over each other.  What a shitfest... is there any point on having that skeletor woman on any network other than fox and expecting anything other than insincere bullshit.  She just asserted that Dotard isn't a liar because he hasn't been charged with anything.  Jesus...

What kind of name is Gack, anyway?

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ChiTownDoc

ChiTownDoc 21152

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1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

They are all bark, most of them are overweight and on Obamacare to really fight. Take their medications away and you have a problem 

Had to fix that...if I had a dollar for every Trumptard I've treated on Obamacare, I'd have about tree fiddy...

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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14918

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Posted
Who cares which had more of an influence? If #1 had any influence then that's a bad thing. The end.


That’s still an if, isn’t it? Trump’s manipulation of Facebook could have had a bigger effect.

I’m less worried about Russian facebots posting memes than I am about actual Russian cyberwarfare. Did you guys read this article?

https://www.wired.com/story/notpetya-cyberattack-ukraine-russia-code-crashed-the-world/

Holy. Shit.
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26444

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Which do you think likely had a bigger influence on the outcome of the election:
1) The Russians hacking the DNC and Podesta's emails, releasing them to the public, and posting picture of Hillary arm wrestling Satan on facebook; or
2) An American "media outlet" continuously stoking "Hillary only has 6 months to live" and coordinating the killing of negative stories that would have likely buried trump at that point in the cycle; or
3) The director of the FBI going off protocol and making an ordeal out of Clinton's server at a crucial point in the election.
Tough to isolate the independent contributions, but I'd probably go 3>2>1 

You’re missing the two most crucial component (targeting of key precincts and Clinton’s terrible campaign strategy and execution) but that seems about right of the things you listed.
And FWIW I still think Comey took the only path available to him under the circumstances.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89649

Posted
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18 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

when you've lost a prominent fox news guy...

Yeah, that’s gonna sting. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/fox-news-neil-cavuto-donald-trump-problem-you_us_5b7f4998e4b0cd327dfb3b7e

Quote

″You are so darned focused on promoting a financial boom that you fail to see that you are the one creating this moral bust,” Cavuto said. “And we could all be the poorer for it.” 

Cavuto was responding to Trump’s claim in a Fox News interview this week that the stock market would crash if he were impeached. 

“You don’t prevent a constitutional crisis by threatening a financial one,” Cavuto said. “But, Mr. President, you guarantee both when your very actions and words create that crisis or make people think that you’re hiding one.”

The Fox News host then listed some of the president’s most “worrisome and tiresome” lies, calling out Trump for changing his story on controversies ranging from “hush money” payments to women who said they had affairs with him to his knowledge of a 2016 Trump Tower meeting with a Kremlin-linked lawyer in hopes of gathering damaging information on Hillary Clinton. 

“You are right to say that some are out to get you,” Cavuto said to Trump. ”But oftentimes, Mr. President, the problem is you: what you say, and how you keep changing what you say.”

I’m fairly certain that Cavuto didn’t toss that out without the permission of the higher-ups/Murdochs.

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