Donald Trump 2018

[shnsajax 3,605]

41 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

That fat orange could fight his way out of a wet McDonalds bag.  He is a coward and a pussy. 

I don't know, he has lots of experience fighting with the bag for that last fry that feel underneath the paper flap. 

[Mole 4,338]

12 minutes ago, Agent47 said:

 

How can evangelicals defend this low rent low brow jackaloon.

 

We’re just a little over two years from Trump’s profession of faith. Remember he was a “baby Christian.” It’s striking how similar Paul’s first two years as a Christian align with Trump’s. Remember when Paul called Mary Magdalene a horse face? Or how Trump commonly refers to himself as chief among sinners? Or how when the Lord open the prison doors Paul fled and told the jailer to fend for himself? It’s uncanny how these two giants of the faith are similar. 

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Mole

[Paul Wesley 3,313]

New Testament sarcasm talk not going away.

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

23 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

False.  

Trump basically lost 46 electoral votes last night.  

Playing solely to his base won’t make up those EVs, and may even cost him more EVs. 

[seven 1,368]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Why do we think that felons break in a impactful way for D's over R's.

Compare the demographics of felons to the trump support demographics.  Layer in education level, SES, and voter turnout rates by all these factors and I am not sure its a world changer. In other words, Florida still gonna Florida.  

Yeah, I saw some data yesterday that said basically democrats are at 86% with black felons and trump is at 60% with white felons. And neither really care about voting. I don't expect this to really be much of a factor.

[David Dennison 19,441]

26 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

False.  

Well, he didn't do it in 2016. He lost the House and some electorally important states by trying it in 2018. Something tells me he might want a new strategy going into 2020.

[Mo Horn 8,933]

Sessions out. Wonder if he told him or if this tweet served as notice

 

Edited November 7, 2018 by Mo Horn

[retread 2,951]

Sessions just resigned after being asked to resign by Cheeto. Effectively a firing according to CNN. ::popcorngif

Edited November 7, 2018 by retread

[Anastasis 23,700]

[Js1 86,950]

"I got a bigger Senate majority. Whoop.  Time to confirm a hack!"

[Bama Chick 28,596]

Oh shitttttttt

Someone’s trying to distract from the election last night.

[Brisketexan 106,634]

Remember me telling you the shitshow gets shitshowier?  Here we go.

[retread 2,951]

Quote

“If [Mueller] were to continue to investigate the financial relationships without a broadened scope in his appointment, then this would raise serious concerns that the special counsel’s investigation was a mere witch hunt,” Whitaker wrote on CNN.com last August. Before entering government as Sessions’ chief of staff last September, Whitaker was a legal commentator for CNN and appeared several times on network programs to opine on Mueller’s probe and the investigation into Trump’s former campaign chairman Paul Manafort. 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2018/09/the-man-set-to-become-deputy-attorney-general-said-muellers-investigation-risked-becoming-a-witch-hunt/

Edited November 7, 2018 by retread

[Mo Horn 8,933]

My money is on Mueller being fired before the new Congress is seated and before the House changes. 

[Fozzz 152]

 

 

[Bama Chick 28,596]

And now all the Trumpkins who had been hiding but came back last night to crow about Beto losing and Florida going racist red will turn tail again with this latest news drop.

I thought living in a banana republic would involve more steel drums and rum.

[Lagunamadre 1,975]

Only Trump could be vile enough to actually make me feel some sympathy for Jeff Sessions. 

[Lurch 5,949]

Why do we think that felons break in a impactful way for D's over R's.
Compare the demographics of felons to the trump support demographics.  Layer in education level, SES, and voter turnout rates by all these factors and I am not sure its a world changer. In other words, Florida still gonna Florida.  

My totally uneducated opinion on it is that criminals tend to be poor and poor tend to vote D.

[Brisketexan 106,634]

1 minute ago, Mo Horn said:

My money is on Mueller being fired before the new Congress is seated and before the House changes. 

This.

Now is the full-on assault on the Mueller investigation.  Trump has two years before the next election, and thus any electoral consequences.  NOW is when you get to see the authoritarianism play REALLY kick in.

[Anastasis 23,700]

Just now, Js1 said:

"I got a bigger Senate majority. Whoop.  Time to confirm a hack!"

And this is why Senate margin matters, even when losing the House.  

[Huckleberry 34,407]

2 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

My totally uneducated opinion on it is that criminals tend to be poor and poor tend to vote D.

 

Speaking of totally uneducated, white felons tend to be uneducated whites. And that is a Republican demographic.

I think the Florida felon vote will be about a 50/50 split. Not surprising, there's apparently some sort of Florida law that says nobody can win an election with 51%+ of the vote.

Edited November 7, 2018 by Huckleberry

[David Dennison 19,441]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

This.

Now is the full-on assault on the Mueller investigation.  Trump has two years before the next election, and thus any electoral consequences.  NOW is when you get to see the authoritarianism play REALLY kick in.

They waited way too long. It's not going to matter.

[Hiphopopotamos 21,158]

20 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Why do we think that felons break in a impactful way for D's over R's.

Compare the demographics of felons to the trump support demographics.  Layer in education level, SES, and voter turnout rates by all these factors and I am not sure its a world changer. In other words, Florida still gonna Florida.  

This is a study that looked at Voter disenfranchisement and specifically felons/ex-felons and what their effect might have been on the 2000 presidential race in Florida.  They estimated that close to 7 out of 10 votes would have gone to the Democrat and that even at half of expected voter turnout it would have resulted in a net gain of 40k votes for Gore.  At the time they were only looking at disenfranchisement of 850k felons - that number is now up to 1.4 million.

Trump won Florida by approx 100k votes

http://as.nyu.edu/content/dam/nyu-as/faculty/documents/Democratic_Contraction.pdf

[JimmyJames 12,271]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

I don't think that the House OR the Senate are the tells. I think Florida is.  You had an all in Trumper take the governor, and (probably) unseated a Dem Senator in a very close race. 

That’s cause Florida sucks though. Can’t be helped. 

[retread 2,951]

What's the process for reinstating the independent counsel? Is there another way to continue the investigation when Mueller is fired?

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

1 minute ago, David Dennison said:

They waited way too long. It's not going to matter.

Still time for Mueller to slip and fall out a 10th floor window and for the shredder to work overtime.

[Hiphopopotamos 21,158]

Just now, retread said:

What's the process for reinstating the independent counsel? Is there another way to continue the investigation when Mueller is fired?

The House is going to continue the investigation if Mueller is fired.

[Agent47 157]

Trump's mission now is to avoid prison. That's the next two years of this "presidency". 

[triplehorn 2,664]

1 minute ago, retread said:

What's the process for reinstating the independent counsel? Is there another way to continue the investigation when Mueller is fired?

Evidently House can re-hire him.  They can take this up a notch starting in January.

[David Dennison 19,441]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

And this is why Senate margin matters, even when losing the House.  

But taking the House ensures that everything Mueller has discovered will be revealed to Congress.

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

Shocking Trump would immediately obstruct justice after the midterms 

[jimmyjazz 46,982]

Mueller has handed plenty of information off to the AG in NY, etc.  Firing him is also not going to stop the FBI from doing their job.  

And, the House will just re-appoint Mueller to an equivalent position.

Donald Trump is fucked.

[David Dennison 19,441]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Shocking Trump would immediately obstruct justice after the midterms 

Not shocking that he's doing it so incompetently.

[SimonBolivar 11,037]

Again odd feelings of sympathy from the left for Jeff Sessions. Enemy of my enemy I guess.

[Mole 4,338]

There are a lot of white supremists in prison too.

[JimmyJames 12,271]

Some of you Nancy’s need to calm down. Trump lost Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin last night. The first two bigly. He  absolutely can’t win without those three and he knows it. 

That and Texas is turning into a swing state. Want proof? How many political ads did you just watch the last couple months and look at the results. It’s getting ever closer. Beto won Tarrant and Williamson county for fucks sale. If trump and the trumpkins lose Texas there is no path to winning. 

Other than Beto losing, which was of course was always gonna be difficult, the most disappointing result last night was the Florida governors race. No doubt racism played a factor there. 

[seven 1,368]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

Again odd feelings of sympathy from the left for Jeff Sessions. Enemy of my enemy I guess.

Yeah. He is a horrible little person with horrible backwards ideas, but he had slightly more honor than trump

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

We’re assuming there will be elections in 2020

[Loco 3,754]

2 minutes ago, Mole said:

There are a lot of white supremists in prison too.

Yeah, but not nearly enough

[Hiphopopotamos 21,158]

So is AG a fight to the death between Lindsey and Kobach?

[JimmyJames 12,271]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We’re assuming there will be elections in 2020

Yes there will. And the best thing about last night was it assured it. 

Had the republicans won the house, there still would have been elections. Just not the type you’re used to seeing unless you’re a Russian immigrant. 

Edited November 7, 2018 by JimmyJames

[Js1 86,950]

4 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Some of you Nancy’s need to calm down. Trump lost Michigan Pennsylvania and Wisconsin last night. The first two bigly. He  absolutely can’t win without those three and he knows it. 

That and Texas is turning into a swing state. Want proof? How many political ads did you just watch the last couple months and look at the results. It’s getting ever closer. Beto won Tarrant and Williamson county for fucks sale. If trump and the trumpkins lose Texas there is no path to winning. 

Other than Beto losing, which was of course was always gonna be difficult, the most disappointing result last night was the Florida governors race. No doubt racism played a factor there. 

North Carolina also has a Democratic governor and a 5-2 majority on their Supreme Court.  Can cut down on shenanigans there too.

[Anastasis 23,700]

Just now, Hiphopopotamos said:

This is a study that looked at Voter disenfranchisement and specifically felons/ex-felons and what their effect might have been on the 2000 presidential race in Florida.  They estimated that close to 7 out of 10 votes would have gone to the Democrat and that even at half of expected voter turnout it would have resulted in a net gain of 40k votes for Gore.  At the time they were only looking at disenfranchisement of 850k felons - that number is now up to 1.4 million.

Trump won Florida by approx 100k votes

http://as.nyu.edu/content/dam/nyu-as/faculty/documents/Democratic_Contraction.pdf

Good find. That paper assumes a 68.9% preference among felons for Gore over Bush based on matching to non-felons on a variety of demographics and SES variables. Interestingly, Clinton (1996) goes 85.4%. However, that assumption is not totally transportable given the 2016 breakdowns.  Would be interesting to see the analysis replicated for 2016 (or for 2018 using the senate race or the governor race).

 

[ChiTownDoc 21,325]

2 hours ago, tjhooker said:

Clinton was fat.  Just thought I'd point that out with all the fat presidential talk today.  Not sure why it matters to be honest but it seems to.

Yeah he never claimed to weigh 100 lbs less than he did.  He also never asked doctors to release statements calling his fatass the healthiest fucker of all time.  

[Huckleberry 34,407]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Good find. That paper assumes a 68.9% preference among felons for Gore over Bush based on matching to non-felons on a variety of demographics and SES variables. Interestingly, Clinton (1996) goes 85.4%. However, that assumption is not totally transportable given the 2016 breakdowns.  Would be interesting to see the analysis replicated for 2016 (or for 2018 using the senate race or the governor race).

 

Exactly, uneducated whites have shifted sharply to the Trump GOP.

[Radical Larry 28,815]

Infrastructure week is back on!

[Anastasis 23,700]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

Exactly, uneducated whites have shifted sharply to the Trump GOP.

Further, I would argue that their matching approach likely misses a number of unmeasured and/or unanticipated factors that drive differences in voter preference between felons and non-felons.  

[Pancho 46,062]

 

[texastough 1,142]

I can't find a 2020 presidential elections thread, and sorry if this has been posted already, but I've been thinking about an ideal democratic candidate. I think its someone from the military with a strong personality that can effectively call out Trump's bullshit. Like a McRaven. Someone who's integrity and dignity starkly contrast to Trump's childish/evil antics. The military angle & Washington outsider-ness should bring back at least some of the rednecks from the edge of the abyss. 

If that person does not exist, maybe there's hope for Hickenlooper and the idea of an R as a running mate.

[Biff Tannen 46,063]

If dotus is running in 2020 then we have already lost.