Donald Trump 2018

[Mojo Hand 4580]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It is annoying that Comey will probably come out of this thing looking good, when he is probably more responsible than any other individual in America for Trump's election. It wasn't his intention, and I think he was trying to do what he saw as the closest-to-right thing in a bad situation, but he's going to publicly skate in the court of public opinion and he shouldn't.

I would also be annoyed, but I don't think this will happen.  It just hasn't played out in such a way that he did anything particularly heroic.  He wasn't fired for turning on Trump, but rather for not looking the other way on Flynn, which he couldn't even do.  Trump's stink will always be on him. 

[Anastasis 23390]

5 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

I'm more likely to buy Trump products and stay in Trump properties!

Just wait until they launch the Trump Trailer Park and Bingo Hall. More targeted to his core demographic. 

[Anastasis 23390]

59 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

It is annoying that Comey will probably come out of this thing looking good, when he is probably more responsible than any other individual in America for Trump's election. It wasn't his intention, and I think he was trying to do what he saw as the closest-to-right thing in a bad situation, but he's going to publicly skate in the court of public opinion and he shouldn't.

I don't understand the people white knighting Comey.  He shit the bed in multiple ways, and injected himself wholly into the very center of the political process. He was in a tough spot, but he made some horribad decisions.  His ongoing virtue signalling is a so fucking transparent, but a sizable portion lap that shit up because he is going to say some mean things about Trump. OK. Comey, not Russia, had the single most influential role in tilting the election from Clinton to Trump.  But hey, these books aren't gonna sell themselves. 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Anastasis
Freudian slip, inserted Russia instead of Trump.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

There is absolutely no basis for your statement that Comey had the single most influential role in the election.  None whatsoever.

[Chad Fuck 17548]

Just one morning, I'd like to wake up and not immediately go "What in the ever lovin' fuck...??" when I pick up my phone and see the push notifications from the news.

[wildcat09 29213]

I've always felt this had the best take on Comey: http://www.dorfonlaw.org/2017/05/villains-careerists-and-patriots.html

The TLDR is:

Quote

How does someone who is not widely perceived as a gadfly or an asshole develop a reputation for being a person of great principle and integrity? Essentially by curating his reputation. As numerous commentators have noted, that's more or less what Comey has done--leaning very hard on the tale of the hospital visit.

To be clear, I'm not arguing that Comey did not act honorably and with integrity back in 2004, when he blocked the effort of Alberto Gonzales and Andrew Card to reauthorize an illegal surveillance program. He acted honorably. What I am saying is that Comey seems like the sort of person who pays a great deal of attention to his own reputation. And that accounts for his worst sin: Because he didn't want to look like he had acted unfairly to influence the election by sitting on the Anthony Weiner material, he in fact unfairly influenced the election. The cultivation of the appearance of integrity can sometimes be inconsistent with actually acting with integrity.

 

[Anastasis 23390]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

There is absolutely no basis for your statement that Comey had the single most influential role in the election.  None whatsoever.

Uh, there are a long list of pundits and campaign staffers and even Clinton herself that have arrived at that conclusion. 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

It is annoying that Comey will probably come out of this thing looking good, when he is probably more responsible than any other individual in America for Trump's election. It wasn't his intention, and I think he was trying to do what he saw as the closest-to-right thing in a bad situation, but he's going to publicly skate in the court of public opinion and he shouldn't.

One crazy prediction: James Comey will be a short list candidate for Attorney General in the next Democratic administration, along with Adam Schiff.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jimmyjazz 45538]

Yeah, and there are a long list of people who think the election was fucked long before that action.  So no, you have no legitimate basis for your statement.  It's an opinion.  In my opinion, it's likely wrong.

[Mojo Hand 4580]

What?  Clinton and her staffers don't blame themselves?   That's a shocking and credible opinion. 

[wildcat09 29213]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, and there are a long list of people who think the election was fucked long before that action.  So no, you have no legitimate basis for your statement.  It's an opinion.  In my opinion, it's likely wrong.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

Quote

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

 

[Anastasis 23390]

7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, and there are a long list of people who think the election was fucked long before that action.  So no, you have no legitimate basis for your statement.  It's an opinion.  In my opinion, it's likely wrong.

You want something more objective and data driven to support that conclusion?  OK.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

 

Quote

The letter isn’t the only reason that Clinton lost. It does not excuse every decision the Clinton campaign made. Other factors may have played a larger role in her defeat, and it’s up to Democrats to examine those as they choose their strategy for 2018 and 2020.

But the effect of those factors — say, Clinton’s decision to give paid speeches to investment banks, or her messaging on pocket-book issues, or the role that her gender played in the campaign — is hard to measure. 

The impact of Comey’s letter is comparatively easy to quantify, by contrast. At a maximum, it might have shifted the race by 3 or 4 percentage points toward Donald Trump, swinging Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida to him, perhaps along with North Carolina and Arizona. At a minimum, its impact might have been only a percentage point or so. Still, because Clinton lost Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin by less than 1 point, the letter was probably enough to change the outcome of the Electoral College.

...

The Comey letter almost immediately sank Clinton’s polls

News of the Comey letter broke just before 1 p.m. Eastern time on Oct. 28, when Utah. Rep Jason Chaffetz tweeted about it, noting the existence of the letter and stating (incorrectly, it turned out²) that the case into Clinton’s private email server had been “reopened.” The story exploded onto the scene; Fox News was treating Chaffetz’s tweet as “breaking news” within 15 minutes, and the FBI story dominated headlines everywhere within roughly an hour. In an element of tabloid flair, it was soon reported that the emails in question were found on a computer owned by Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, as part of an investigation into whether he’d sent sexually explicit messages to teenage girls.

Few news organizations gave the story more velocity than The New York Times. On the morning of Oct. 29, Comey stories stretched across the print edition’s front page, accompanied by a photo showing Clinton and her aide Huma Abedin, Weiner’s estranged wife. Although some of these articles contained detailed reporting, the headlines focused on speculation about the implications for the horse race — “NEW EMAILS JOLT CLINTON CAMPAIGN IN RACE’S LAST DAYS.”

That Comey’s decision to issue the letter had been so unorthodox and that the contents of the letter were so ambiguous helped fuel the story. The Times’s print lead on Oct. 30 was about Clinton’s pushback against Comey, and a story it published two days later explained that Comey had broken with precedent in releasing the letter. It covered all sides of the controversy. But the controversy was an unwelcome one for Clinton, since it involved voters seeing words like “Clinton,” “email,” “FBI” and “investigation” together in headlines. Within a day of the Comey letter, Google searches for “Clinton FBI” had increased 50-fold and searches for “Clinton email” almost tenfold.

Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week later — after polls had time to fully reflect the letter — her lead had declined to 2.9 percentage points. That is to say, there was a shift of about 3 percentage points against Clinton. And it was an especially pernicious shift for Clinton because (at least according to the FiveThirtyEight model) Clinton was underperforming in swing states as compared to the country overall. In the average swing state,³ Clinton’s lead declined from 4.5 percentage points at the start of Oct. 28 to just 1.7 percentage points on Nov. 4. If the polls were off even slightly, Trump could be headed to the White House.

 

 

Even a small Comey effect could have cost Clinton the 270 electoral votes she needed to win

		ADJUSTED VOTE MARGIN
	CLINTON VOTE MARGIN	SMALL COMEY EFFECT*	BIG COMEY EFFECT*	CLINTON’S ELECTORAL VOTES HAD SHE WON
Michigan	-0.2	+0.8	+3.8	248
Pennsylvania	-0.7	+0.3	+3.3	268
Wisconsin	-0.8	+0.2	+3.2	278
Florida	-1.2	-0.2	+2.8	307
Nebraska’s 2nd C.D.	-2.1	-1.1	+1.9	308
Arizona	-3.5	-2.5	+0.5	319
North Carolina	-3.7	-2.7	+0.3	334
Georgia	-5.1	-4.1	-1.1	350
Ohio	-8.1	-7.1	-4.1	368
Texas	-9.0	-8.0	-5.0	406
Iowa	-9.4	-8.4	-5.4	412

*Adjusting for a small Comey effect adds 1 percentage point to Clinton’s vote margin. A big effect adds 4. Hypothetical scenario starts with the 232 electoral votes Clinton actually won, ignoring faithless electors.

Edited April 11, 2018 by Anastasis

[Anastasis 23390]

LOL. But my excerpt includes graphs and pictures. 

[Francisco 2.0 32313]

https://www.themaven.net/theresurgent/erick-erickson/a-congressman-s-profanity-laced-tirade-in-a-safeway-grocery-store-SeHI2l5bIECGQn4gmnzGaw/?full=1

 

Quote

One of the President's congressional defenders has privately decided he hates Trump and wants to unload.

"If we're going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherf**ker," said the congressman as we roamed the aisles of a Safeway grocery store together. I haven't been in a Safeway since my family moved home from Dubai in 1990. The congressman did not want to be seen with me on Capitol Hill. He needed to get some stuff anyway and decided he'd let me walk with him through the cereal and dairy selections at the Safeway near my hotel. He is not happy with President Trump. He was never a die hard Trump supporter. He supported him in the general and never expected him to win. But he did. So the congressman, whose district Trump won, has been a regular supporter on Fox News and elsewhere defending the President. He is happy to be quoted, so long as I don't name him. He says he just needs to vent. I suggest what we're doing is one of the reason's Trump won -- a congressman says nice things in public and bad things in private.

"Everybody does this sh*t," he says. It's his turn. We have known each other for years and have been promising to connect this week while I'm passing through DC. So this is it. I'm passing along his comments, not endorsing them.

 

Quote

"I read you writing about this, about wanting to say nice things when you can and criticize when you need to. He may be an idiot, but he's still the President and leader of my party and he is capable of doing some things right," he says before conceding it's usually other people doing the right things in the President's name. "But dammit he's taking us all down with him. We are well and truly f**ked in November. Kevin [McCarthy] is already circling like a green fly circling sh*t trying to take Paul's [Ryan] job because nobody thinks he's sticking around for Nancy [Pelosi]. She's going to f**k up the cafeteria again too. [Lord's name in vain], at least I'll probably lose too and won't have to put up with that sh*t." He won't lose. His district is very Republican.

What's the problem, though? Well, get ready…

"It's like Forrest Gump won the presidency, but an evil, really f*cking stupid Forrest Gump. He can't help himself. He's just a f**king idiot who thinks he's winning when people are b*tching about him. He really does see the world as ratings and attention. I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. Can you believe it beat the Shawshank Redemption?"

We deviated to Stephen Speilberg for a moment and I had to remind him Robert Zemeckis, not Speilberg, directed it. Then I had to point out his taste in coffee sucks and suggested better. Moving right along…

"Judiciary is stacked with a bunch of people who can win re-election so long as they don't piss off Trump voters in the primary. But if we get to summer and most of the primaries are over, they just might pull the trigger if the President fires Mueller. The sh*t will hit the fan if that happens and I'd vote to impeach him myself. Most of us would, I think. Hell, all the Democrats would and you only need a majority in the House. If we're going to lose because of him, we might as well impeach the motherf**ker. Take him out with us and let Mike [Pence] take over. At least then we could sleep well at night," he said before going off on a tangent about how the situations with Russia and China scare him. Then, "You know having Mike as President would really piss off all the right people, too. They think they hate Trump. Mike is competent," at which point he sighs and laments that there were, in his mind, more than a dozen competent choices in 2016.

So the implication is they wouldn't vote for impeachment if they might be opposed in primaries, I asked. He confirmed he does not think the votes are there to impeach the President if any of the Judiciary Committee members are facing primary opponents. But get through that and, if Mueller is fired, he thinks so and thinks a majority of the House would vote to impeach President Trump.

"I say a lot of shit on TV defending him, even over this. But honestly, I wish the motherf*cker would just go away. We're going to lose the House, lose the Senate, and lose a bunch of states because of him. All his supporters will blame us for what we have or have not done, but he hasn't led. He wakes up in the morning, sh*ts all over Twitter, sh*ts all over us, sh*ts all over his staff, then hits golf balls. F*ck him. Of course, I can't say that in public or I'd get run out of town."

The congressman's base loves the President. And we're done. He feels better having let it all out. It was a funny conversation with a few additional remarks about the President's personal life I dare not print.

And yes, I agree, it is bad form to say all this in private while publicly praising the President. Welcome to Donald Trump's Washington. Everybody does this sh*t here.

 

[Mojo Hand 4580]

2 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/

 

An alignment of the planets doesn't make Mars the most influential reason for the alignment.   Comey is almost certainly a but-for cause for Trump winning, but so are a number of other things.   The single most influential reason is Hillary, who is the sun that provided the underlying gravity for all of it. 

[jimmyjazz 45538]

The polls were wrong.  I'm not buying an argument based on the polls, particularly polls that took place well before the election.  EXIT polls were wrong, for pity's sake.

[GSU&UT 1798]

@jimmyjazz I know this is entirely anecdotal, but I was in the Bay freaking Area only a month and a half after the election and even there I overheard a girl saying one of her friends (a girl) couldn't bring herself to vote for Hillary because of the "emails." You are vastly underestimating how much Comey's announcement, that they were re-opening that case, played a part in influencing voters.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

I'm not saying there was no effect, but I am saying that we don't have a good measure of how much Hillary had self-fucked her own campaign, nor how much meddling might have occurred in certain states.

I am taking issue with the absolute nature of the statement.

[SameSame 1692]

3 hours ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

 

 

 

That motherfucker is mentally insane.

[Anastasis 23390]

Just now, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not saying there was no effect, but I am saying that we don't have a good measure of how much Hillary had self-fucked her own campaign, nor how much meddling might have occurred in certain states.

I am taking issue with the absolute nature of the statement.

That's fine, but don't tell me that there is no basis for the claim. There is a basis for the claim, coming from multiple perspectives including the candidate herself. Both objective data driven basis and subjective assessments of people who were closely involved and those closely observing. But yes, I agree with Mojo, the candidate herself really bears the single most responsibility for her loss. I will concede that Hillary self-fucking her campaign was the single most influential factor.  After her, it was probably Comey's actions. 

[wildcat09 29213]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm not saying there was no effect, but I am saying that we don't have a good measure of how much Hillary had self-fucked her own campaign, nor how much meddling might have occurred in certain states.

I am taking issue with the absolute nature of the statement.

Then consider my statement amended to remove "probably was more responsible than..." and replace it with "may have been as responsible as...." I don't think it particularly impacts the point I was trying to make. Comey had a substantial causal impact on Trump's election because he was more concerned with maintaining the appearance of integrity (which in itself is certainly not an unreasonable concern for the head of the FBI) than he was with actually acting with integrity. There are additional reasonable complaints that he was unduly concerned specifically with preempting public attacks from Republicans in Congress and conservative media critics, while not really giving a shit what Democrats or liberals would say. 

I don't think he's a bad person, but it's still annoying that he's going to come out of this looking better than he should because he's done a great job through his career of maintaining the appearance of integrity, which is what led him to fuck everything up in the first place. He should publicly own up to the impact his actions had. Perhaps his book will do that, but I doubt it.

[DigDug 1649]

8 minutes ago, SameSame said:

 

 

That motherfucker is mentally insane.

Come on, those rambling, inaccurate, bordering on dangerous tweets don't give you the picture of someone calm cool and collected?

[HenryJames 65884]

Quote

 I hate Forrest Gump. I listen to your podcast and heard you hate it too. What an overrated piece of sh*t movie. 

This.

[Native Horn 3485]

Yeah, and if Dareus didn't smack Colt's shoulder in 2010, we mighta won the natty.  

[Longhorn_Fan68 33831]

43 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Uh, there are a long list of pundits and campaign staffers and even Clinton herself that have arrived at that conclusion. 

 

Spoiler that shit. Removed video because no one needs to see that woman close up.

[Red Five 40627]

Guesses on the congressman that hates Trump and Forrest Gump?

[SameSame 1692]

1 minute ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

Spoiler that shit. Removed video because no one needs to see that woman close up.

No shit, she's got a face like the back side of my nuts.

[TornACL 7674]

No way he's from Alabama, that's for sure.

[Lurch 5921]

I mean, its not like they were splashing his book cover over the teaser trailer. Sorry pointing out that this is a promotional event irks you guys. 

You’re playing defense and dismissing it before it even airs. It’s not irksome. It’s sad.

[NameAlreadyInUse 5105]

5 minutes ago, SameSame said:

No shit, she's got a face like the back side of my nuts.

I've seen some pretty nuts.  This doesn't sound pretty.  I'm sorry for you.

[SameSame 1692]

1 minute ago, NameAlreadyInUse said:

I've seen some pretty nuts.  This doesn't sound pretty.  I'm sorry for you.

Oh it's a horror show down there.

[TornACL 7674]

3 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

 

You’re playing defense and dismissing it before it even airs. It’s not irksome. It’s sad.

 

[idiots] If there was anything important they would release the interview right away and not wait until Sunday GARBLE GARBLE GARBLE [/idiots]

Edited April 11, 2018 by TornACL
eabod

[SquishMitten 10397]

Just now, SameSame said:

Oh it's a horror show down there.

You should try wiping from front to back

[WhatTheBuck 28703]

1 hour ago, Mojo Hand said:

An alignment of the planets doesn't make Mars the most influential reason for the alignment.   Comey is almost certainly a but-for cause for Trump winning, but so are a number of other things.   The single most influential reason is Hillary, who is the sun that provided the underlying gravity for all of it. 

Dont forget the 63,000,000 dumbfucks that voted for Trump. They bear some responsibility too. 

[SaucyJack 3487]

58 minutes ago, SameSame said:

No shit, she's got a face like the back side of my nuts.

Ron Jeremy?

[SaucyJack 3487]

1 hour ago, Native Horn said:

Yeah, and if Dareus didn't smack Colt's shoulder in 2010, we mighta won the natty.  

 I’m not a negger (no racist), but be careful with that “natty” shit around my Longhorns. Rambogif

[Jack Straw 2953]

1 hour ago, SameSame said:

 

 

That motherfucker is mentally insane.

True, and not hyperbolic in the least.  I’ve said it before - if Trump was any one of our family members or close friends, his keys and phone would have been taken away a long time ago,  and we’d be transitioning him into long term care.  

[Anastasis 23390]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

 

You’re playing defense and dismissing it before it even airs. It’s not irksome. It’s sad.

 

I didn't dismiss anything. I said that it would boost book sales.  Which is the purpose. Comey starting his book tour. 

Edited April 11, 2018 by Anastasis

[Lurch 5921]

I didn't dismiss anything. I said that it would boost book sales.  Which is the purpose. Comey starting his book tour. 

You’re too smart to not know EXACTLY why you felt the need to point that out. You know saying “fake news!” is embarrassing so instead you’re more subtly trying to discredit the messenger in anticipation of the message.

It’s pathetic.

[wildcat09 29213]

9 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

You’re too smart to not know EXACTLY why you felt the need to point that out. You know saying “fake news!” is embarrassing so instead you’re more subtly trying to discredit the messenger in anticipation of the message.

It’s pathetic.

 

I tend to think Anastasis leans too far right on some of this shit, particularly he's shown a willingness to believe at least for a time some of the bullshit the right has put out to discredit the Russia investigations while not demonstrating the same level of respect or deference to most evidence that's come from the investigations or otherwise been hyped by circles on the left, but he's been pretty consistent on his take regarding Comey and I don't think it's ever been an attempt to discredit his message. His take has always been, it seems to me, that regardless of the validity and accuracy of Comey's message, Comey himself is still a sanctimonious dick who undercut his own message.

[Anastasis 23390]

 

You’re too smart to not know EXACTLY why you felt the need to point that out. You know saying “fake news!” is embarrassing so instead you’re more subtly trying to discredit the messenger in anticipation of the message.

 

It’s pathetic.

 

Ok, if you say so. My quip about the book sales was an honest reaction that I had when the ABC teaser splashed a cover of his book as they wrapped it up. Hard to buy that kind of promotion. And at least one other poster had the same reaction.

[WhatTheBuck 28703]

A great many of us have made the same observation about Trump. I once referred to him as Don Don on the old board. Comparing him to a mob boss isn't exactly a scandalous new assessment. I don't know if it was contrived to boost book sales but it's a perfectly accurate description of our president. 

[F250 28674]

2 hours ago, Native Horn said:

Yeah, and if Dareus didn't smack Colt's shoulder in 2010, we mighta won the natty.  

I have the urge to cut you right now.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Just wait until they launch the Trump Trailer Park and Bingo Hall. More targeted to his core demographic. 

Don't forget the Trump payday and title loans. 

[SimonBolivar 10910]

3 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

Don't forget the Trump payday and title loans. 

Dude is just slaying it all over the place.

[jimmyjazz 45538]

57 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

 

Ok, if you say so. My quip about the book sales was an honest reaction that I had when the ABC teaser splashed a cover of his book as they wrapped it up. Hard to buy that kind of promotion. And at least one other poster had the same reaction.

It's a perfectly cynical response, and not unwarranted, but it's possible that Comey is actually just a dude who has tried hard to manage his career in the right way and things got nuts at the end.  He was faced with a decision between two bad choices . . . there isn't a whole lot he could have done.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

47 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

A great many of us have made the same observation about Trump. I once referred to him as Don Don on the old board. Comparing him to a mob boss isn't exactly a scandalous new assessment. I don't know if it was contrived to boost book sales but it's a perfectly accurate description of our president. 

If the DOTUS is a mob boss he is Vito Spatafore 

[Native Horn 3485]

26 minutes ago, F250 said:

I have the urge to cut you right now.

Can you at least wait until later in the football season when it might be more useful?  

[Kringelbert Fishtybuns 943]

Please..baby Jesus.....No johnny cakes.

[Gil Bang 25894]

3 minutes ago, Grade of D as in David said:

If the DOTUS is a mob boss he is Vito Spatafore 

more like Vito Jr. 

 

 

 

 

in the shower.