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TheFlyingBoat

By TheFlyingBoat
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M12BH
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SInce y'all seem to be my clearinghouse for all things political, let me tell a story.  A couple of them, actually.  Three, if you want to be specific. When I was 14 I went with a family frien

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brown water
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Slocum’s Razor

Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

Posted
Posted
Wait, they’re predicting a recession? Maybe their next issue will tell us the sun will come up tomorrow. The article you linked said that banks are more resilient than a decade ago and the chance of a downturn that severe is low. I really think you need medication. 

And this, folks, is how you cherrypick from an article and miss some central points. It’s another way of lying. But that’s okay, Chrispy expects lying and it doesn’t bother him.

He stopped reading at “the good news” paragraph. He left out the ones that follow...

Yet this is where the bad news comes in. As our special report this week sets out, the rich world in particular is ill-prepared to deal with even a mild recession. That is partly because the policy arsenal is still depleted from fighting the last downturn. In the past half-century, the Fed has typically cut interest rates by five or so percentage points in a downturn. Today it has less than half that room before it reaches zero; the euro zone and Japan have no room at all.

Policymakers have other options, of course. Central banks could use the now-familiar policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves. The efficacy of QE is debated, but if that does not work, they could try more radical, untested approaches, such as giving money directly to individuals. Governments can boost spending, too. Even countries with large debt burdens can benefit from fiscal stimulus during recessions.

The question is whether using these weapons is politically acceptable. Central banks will enter the next recession with balance-sheets that are already swollen by historical standards—the Fed’s is worth 20% of GDP. Opponents of QE say that it distorts markets and inflates asset bubbles, among other things. No matter that these views are largely misguided; fresh bouts of QE would attract even closer scrutiny than last time. The constraints are particularly tight in the euro zone, where the ECB is limited to buying 33% of any country’s public debt.

Spending ceilings
Fiscal stimulus would also attract political opposition, regardless of the economic arguments. The euro zone is again the most worrying case, if only because Germans and other northern Europeans fear that they will be left with unpaid debts if a country defaults. Its restrictions on borrowing are designed to restrain profligacy, but they also curb the potential for stimulus. America is more willing to spend, but it has recently increased its deficit to over 4% of GDP with the economy already running hot. If it needs to widen the deficit still further to counter a recession, expect a political fight.

Politics is an even greater obstacle to international action. Unprecedented cross-border co-operation was needed to fend off the crisis in 2008. But the rise of populists will complicate the task of working together. The Fed’s swap lines with other central banks, which let them borrow dollars from America, might be a flashpoint. And falling currencies may feed trade tensions. This week Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, warned China against “competitive devaluations”. Mr Trump’s belief in the harm caused by trade deficits is mistaken when growth is strong. But when demand is short, protectionism is a more tempting way to stimulate the economy.

Timely action could avert some of these dangers. Central banks could have new targets that make it harder to oppose action during and after a crisis. If they established a commitment ahead of time to make up lost ground when inflation undershoots or growth disappoints, expectations of a catch-up boom could provide an automatic stimulus in any downturn. Alternatively, raising the inflation target today could over time push up interest rates, giving more room for rate cuts. Future fiscal stimulus could be baked in now by increasing the potency of “automatic stabilisers”—spending on unemployment insurance, say, which goes up as economies sag. The euro zone could relax its fiscal rules to allow for more stimulus.

Pre-emptive action calls for initiative from politicians, which is conspicuously absent. This week’s market volatility suggests time could be short. The world should start preparing now for the next recession, while it still can.


We continue to be short-sighted. We continue to pursue short-term gains which takes away from our long-term tools.

I’m not freaked out or being prescient by saying a recession is coming. Recessions happen. Being prepared for them is a different matter. We aren’t. We’re actively hostile to preparing for it, and giving ourselves the relationships and tools to deal with it.

Trolls like Chrispy, and our enemies, want it that way. Pay attention to that.
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

Posted
Posted
Wait, they’re predicting a recession? Maybe their next issue will tell us the sun will come up tomorrow. The article you linked said that banks are more resilient than a decade ago and the chance of a downturn that severe is low. I really think you need medication. 

And this, folks, is how you cherrypick from an article and miss some central points. It’s another way of lying. But that’s okay, Chrispy expects lying and it doesn’t bother him.

He stopped reading at “the good news” paragraph. He left out the ones that follow...

Yet this is where the bad news comes in. As our special report this week sets out, the rich world in particular is ill-prepared to deal with even a mild recession. That is partly because the policy arsenal is still depleted from fighting the last downturn. In the past half-century, the Fed has typically cut interest rates by five or so percentage points in a downturn. Today it has less than half that room before it reaches zero; the euro zone and Japan have no room at all.

Policymakers have other options, of course. Central banks could use the now-familiar policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves. The efficacy of QE is debated, but if that does not work, they could try more radical, untested approaches, such as giving money directly to individuals. Governments can boost spending, too. Even countries with large debt burdens can benefit from fiscal stimulus during recessions.

The question is whether using these weapons is politically acceptable. Central banks will enter the next recession with balance-sheets that are already swollen by historical standards—the Fed’s is worth 20% of GDP. Opponents of QE say that it distorts markets and inflates asset bubbles, among other things. No matter that these views are largely misguided; fresh bouts of QE would attract even closer scrutiny than last time. The constraints are particularly tight in the euro zone, where the ECB is limited to buying 33% of any country’s public debt.

Spending ceilings
Fiscal stimulus would also attract political opposition, regardless of the economic arguments. The euro zone is again the most worrying case, if only because Germans and other northern Europeans fear that they will be left with unpaid debts if a country defaults. Its restrictions on borrowing are designed to restrain profligacy, but they also curb the potential for stimulus. America is more willing to spend, but it has recently increased its deficit to over 4% of GDP with the economy already running hot. If it needs to widen the deficit still further to counter a recession, expect a political fight.

Politics is an even greater obstacle to international action. Unprecedented cross-border co-operation was needed to fend off the crisis in 2008. But the rise of populists will complicate the task of working together. The Fed’s swap lines with other central banks, which let them borrow dollars from America, might be a flashpoint. And falling currencies may feed trade tensions. This week Steve Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, warned China against “competitive devaluations”. Mr Trump’s belief in the harm caused by trade deficits is mistaken when growth is strong. But when demand is short, protectionism is a more tempting way to stimulate the economy.

Timely action could avert some of these dangers. Central banks could have new targets that make it harder to oppose action during and after a crisis. If they established a commitment ahead of time to make up lost ground when inflation undershoots or growth disappoints, expectations of a catch-up boom could provide an automatic stimulus in any downturn. Alternatively, raising the inflation target today could over time push up interest rates, giving more room for rate cuts. Future fiscal stimulus could be baked in now by increasing the potency of “automatic stabilisers”—spending on unemployment insurance, say, which goes up as economies sag. The euro zone could relax its fiscal rules to allow for more stimulus.

Pre-emptive action calls for initiative from politicians, which is conspicuously absent. This week’s market volatility suggests time could be short. The world should start preparing now for the next recession, while it still can.


We continue to be short-sighted. We continue to pursue short-term gains which takes away from our long-term tools.

I’m not freaked out or being prescient by saying a recession is coming. Recessions happen. Being prepared for them is a different matter. We aren’t. We’re actively hostile to preparing for it, and giving ourselves the relationships and tools to deal with it.

Trolls like Chrispy, and our enemies, want it that way. Pay attention to that.
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Wally Fairway

Wally Fairway 5517

Posted
Posted

I try very hard to say off the Cloak board - but Holey Shit balls - Rogue killers ..... really???

I'm sure Sarah will say that he didn't say it, or it didn't mean what you think it means.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45863334

Quote

Mr Trump addressed snatched questions from reporters over helicopter engine noise at the White House, describing King Salman's denial as "very, very strong".

"It sounded to me like maybe these could have been rogue killers," he added. "Who knows?"

WFT is a rogue killer? (it isn't like Khashoggi died in Chicago)

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triplehorn

triplehorn 2664

Posted
Posted

"This is what LYING looks like"

Thank you Sen Warren.  We need a lot more of this.

 

1 minute ago, Wally Fairway said:

I try very hard to say off the Cloak board - but Holey Shit balls - Rogue killers ..... really???

I'm sure Sarah will say that he didn't say it, or it didn't mean what you think it means.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45863334

WFT is a rogue killer? (it isn't like Khashoggi died in Chicago)

It's a what LYING looks like.

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shnsajax

shnsajax 3589

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Good lord what a day.  If Dems win at least the House in midterms, the next few months should be fucking interesting, especially with Mueller waiting in the wings.

The sheer number of investigations in the house will be pretty amazing. 

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Chrispy

Chrispy 132

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


And this, folks, is how you cherrypick from an article and miss some central points. It’s another way of lying. But that’s okay, Chrispy expects lying and it doesn’t bother him.

He stopped reading at “the good news” paragraph. He left out the ones that follow...



We continue to be short-sighted. We continue to pursue short-term gains which takes away from our long-term tools.

I’m not freaked out or being prescient by saying a recession is coming. Recessions happen. Being prepared for them is a different matter. We aren’t. We’re actively hostile to preparing for it, and giving ourselves the relationships and tools to deal with it.

Trolls like Chrispy, and our enemies, want it that way. Pay attention to that.

Again, you’re being an alarmist, and that’s ok. We’ll be fine, but preaching fire and brimstone catches more ears, so I get your strategy. 

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29187

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Good lord what a day.  If Dems win at least the House in midterms, the next few months should be fucking interesting, especially with Mueller waiting in the wings.

Mueller's investigation is going to get neutered after the midterms. Trump is going to fire Sessions and replace him with a toady the next day.

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Hank Kingsley

Hank Kingsley 20635

Posted
Posted

Is there a bigger pussy and weasel in the world than Donald Trump not named Ted Cruz? Could you imagine telling your children that you voted for this "man"? 

He's a sheep in bully's clothing. The rest of the GOP are so pathetic that they let this fat tub of shit throw limp wristed punches and they just took it on the chin without ever fighting back in 2016. Warren is on to something.  All the Dems need to do is nominate a candidate that will attack. Trump will cower like the the complete fraud he's always been. 

 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

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Again, you’re being an alarmist, and that’s ok. We’ll be fine, but preaching fire and brimstone catches more ears, so I get your strategy. 

MS-13!
Build the wall!
No-go zones!
If Dems win, expect crime!

You can shove your thoughts on alarmism right up your magass. Fucking rich. That’s all you have to sell.

I’m selling analysis that almost all economists worth a shit agree on - the Economist is far from the only source providing this analysis. And I note that you’ve offered ZERO counter-analysis.

Fucking troll. Like your president.
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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

I try very hard to say off the Cloak board - but Holey Shit balls - Rogue killers ..... really???

I'm sure Sarah will say that he didn't say it, or it didn't mean what you think it means.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45863334

WFT is a rogue killer? (it isn't like Khashoggi died in Chicago)

We don’t know who attacked Pearl Harbor. Japan denies it and I believe them.

 It could have been China or India or some rogue killers.  

Wouldn’t it be great if we got along with Imperial Japan? 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted

Lulz at anyone who supports Trump decrying alarmism.

Bitch, do you even listen when your orange pustule screams from his gaping face hole?

The motherfucker rode the wave of scared old white people straight to the White House.

Get the fuck out of here with that ridiculous horseshit.

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Chrispy

Chrispy 132

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


MS-13!
Build the wall!
No-go zones!
If Dems win, expect crime!

You can shove your thoughts on alarmism right up your magass. Fucking rich. That’s all you have to sell.

I’m selling analysis that almost all economists worth a shit agree on - the Economist is far from the only source providing this analysis. And I note that you’ve offered ZERO counter-analysis.

Fucking troll. Like your president.

It works, which is why both sides employ the tactic. The economists agree on the indicators that could cause a recession, such as inflation, trade conflicts, or higher energy prices. What indicator pushes us into a recession? They can’t tell you. What year? Most say 2020, it’s possible I suppose. You frighten too easily. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

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Posted
It works, which is why both sides employ the tactic. The economists agree on the indicators that could cause a recession, such as inflation, trade conflicts, or higher energy prices. What indicator pushes us into a recession? They can’t tell you. What year? Most say 2020, it’s possible I suppose. You frighten too easily. 

Straw man. My argument is NOT that the problem is the predictable and inevitable recession. Yet that’s the point you argue over and over. Which is a logical fallacy. Which is a lie.

My argument - repeated several times - is that this admin has foolishly depleted our toolbox of tools that should be available to deal with a recession.

To use s simple metaphor, for simple, dishonest people like you, it’s like wildfire season. We know it’s coming. We know there will be fires. That’s not the problem. The problem is the short-sighted move of “saving money” today by reducing the number of trucks, air assets, and fire fighters, so that when the inevitable fire comes...we aren’t equipped to handle it.

But hey, the richest guys in town saved $150 in taxes, so....winning.

You are dumbass in service to a dumbass, creating a Möbius strip of dumbassery.
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Chrispy

Chrispy 132

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


Straw man. My argument is NOT that the problem is the predictable and inevitable recession. Yet that’s the point you argue over and over. Which is a logical fallacy. Which is a lie.

My argument - repeated several times - is that this admin has foolishly depleted our toolbox of tools that should be available to deal with a recession.

To use s simple metaphor, for simple, dishonest people like you, it’s like wildfire season. We know it’s coming. We know there will be fires. That’s not the problem. The problem is the short-sighted move of “saving money” today by reducing the number of trucks, air assets, and fire fighters, so that when the inevitable fire comes...we aren’t equipped to handle it.

But hey, the richest guys in town saved $150 in taxes, so....winning.

You are dumbass in service to a dumbass, creating a Möbius strip of dumbassery.

During good times, the best strategy is to sell the scary and uncertain future. Like I said, I applaud your strategy. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104465

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Posted
During good times, the best strategy is to sell the scary and uncertain future. Like I said, I applaud your strategy. 

During good times, the best strategy has always been to position your resources for the lean times.

 

Ant. Grasshopper. It’s so old and clear, there’s a proverb about it.

 

I note that you’ve offered ZERO counteranalysis.

 

Because, of course, you can’t. You have nothing. You are noise, nothing more. My farts have more volume, significance, and intellectual weight.

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Hugo Stiglitz

Hugo Stiglitz 23356

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

They should have gone with Trump's "rouge killers" spin.  This new spin sucks. 

Seems like they’re trying to preserve some minuscule perception of credibility/plausible deniability.

Trump is obviously full of shit and everyone knows it so they shouldn’t go with that story.

The evidence that the Saudis killed the guy is probably overwhelming so it makes sense they would pitch the most innocent narrative to fit the evidence.

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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45477

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

During good times, the best strategy has always been to position your resources for the lean times.

 

Ant. Grasshopper. It’s so old and clear, there’s a proverb about it.

 

I note that you’ve offered ZERO counteranalysis.

 

Because, of course, you can’t. You have nothing. You are noise, nothing more. My farts have more volume, significance, and intellectual weight.

This is actually the best analogy yet.  We will soon be the grasshopper shivering in the cold and all the maga retards will be wondering what happened.  

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