OU Recruiting 2022: Abnormal Mutations in OUDNA

[taybo20 3042]

10 hours ago, quigley said:

I would give Thibbs credit for Kevin Gilliam and Ethan Downs also, both of whom seem promising and seem to be relatively scheme flexible also. The firing of Thibodeaux had to hurt both of them because Thibbs played for Venables at OU.

I view Cain as the bigger loss.

If Todd Bates (current Clemson DL coach) ends up as DL coach, and can recruit like he did at Clemson, it won't matter.

 

Time to make Bates the DC at Clemson 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13289]

I'm wondering if Clemson is done as a national power? Yeah it sounds stupid and probably is, but with Venables leaving, their not so great QB, etc. Probably wish-casting 

[quigley 1565]

50 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I'm not going to pretend to know the OU defensive depth chart but how can you lose your 2 best D players and a bunch of seniors and expect improvement (other than just the BV impact)?

 

The same argument was made by UT fans here after the 2019 season when OU lost Murray (1st rnd) and Gallimore (3rd rnd).
The same argument was made by UT fans here about the OU DBs after the 2020 season when OU lost Tre Brown and Tre Norwood, both of whom played in the League.

OU's defense improved in 2020 and the DB were a push last year. The overall point is that OU' can realize immediate benefit because they're recruited pretty well and there are two glaring inefficiencies:

- maddening personnel decisions over the last couple of years, especially in the defensive backfield.
- poor development of talent in the back 7

OU loses AT LEAST 6 defensive starters from last game:
DL Isaiah Thomas, Winfrey, Bonitto
DB Turner-Yell (possibly), Fields, Broiles

Winfrey was overall underwhelming. The Sooners have JAGs that did as well as he did coming back. Bonitto and Thomas will be missed, but if Jalen Redmond comes back and is in shape, he can give you a good Thomas impression. Grimes and Clayton Smith will replace Bonitto, and I'm excited to see both of them.

Turner-Yell was by far their best S/NB. He may come back, and if he does, I hope to see him as NB against teams that play smaller receivers in the slot and don't run much. He covers well (not great), but he doesn't tackle well in space, which is a pretty important job for a safety. OU's got several good options to replace Fields and Broiles. Both were effort guys, but should've been supplanted by more talented guys developed in the system.

I think you'll get an improvement in LB play at least with Venables coming in. LB play and development was a hallmark of his time at OU (Marshell, Calmus, Lehman, Mitchell, Ingram, Alexander, Lofton, Harris, Clayton) and at Clemson (O'Daniel, Anthony, Boulware, Simmons). OU's LBs looked lost in coverage, especially zone. This will improve.

I'm assuming the back 7 will be better because of the above points. The DL has talent on the edges to approximate the production of Bonitto and Thomas, and the DTs just need to be their JAG-selves again.

[Michael Knight 13239]

49 minutes ago, Spider2YBanana said:

I'm wondering if Clemson is done as a national power? Yeah it sounds stupid and probably is, but with Venables leaving, their not so great QB, etc. Probably wish-casting 

Clemson was a national power the same way Texas was, they hit on 2 generational QBs back to back. That shit is over

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

5 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Clemson was a national power the same way Texas was, they hit on 2 generational QBs back to back. That shit is over

Yeah they don’t win shit with just those QB’s.  That D was what won the titles.  Nobody beats Bama with just an amazing offense.  Unless you want to count regular season BS games where they randomly get bit on the ankle - aggy.  

[Huckleberry 34702]

15 minutes ago, quigley said:

The same argument was made by UT fans here about the OU DBs after the 2020 season when OU lost Tre Brown and Tre Norwood, both of whom played in the League.

Well I wasn't one of them. Getting rid of Human Toast (Radley-Hiles) was bound to help. 

[Michael Knight 13239]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yeah they don’t win shit with just those QB’s.  That D was what won the titles.  Nobody beats Bama with just an amazing offense.  Unless you want to count regular season BS games where they randomly get bit on the ankle - aggy.  

Texas had good defenses when we had Vince and Colt

[Tex Pete 21489]

2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Well I wasn't one of them. Getting rid of Human Toast (Radley-Hiles) was bound to help. 

Bookie is such a bitch. Hated that fucker. 

[Funk Doctor Spock 13289]

20 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Clemson was a national power the same way Texas was, they hit on 2 generational QBs back to back. That shit is over

So you also think their run is over?

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

8 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Texas had good defenses when we had Vince and Colt

Yep.  Doesn’t refute my point - Clemson needed those defenses badly.  Trust me I know quite well what just a great QB/offense can get done.  As you can tell, I’m still salty about all those wasted QB’s.  

[LTtxfan 50012]

So what reason(s) are blOU fans saying as to why Riley probably left Norman??  

Just curious what the scuttlebutt is y'all are hearing... 

 

(I have Sooner friends that have talked about how Bob Stoops still parades around the office up there from time-to-time and supposedly some of Bob's bigger supporters have not been happy with Lincoln.  LR has not been real good at making donors feel all warm and fuzzy.) 

 

[Michael Knight 13239]

16 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep.  Doesn’t refute my point - Clemson needed those defenses badly.  Trust me I know quite well what just a great QB/offense can get done.  As you can tell, I’m still salty about all those wasted QB’s.  

OU has never had a QB that compares to Lawrence or Watson

[quigley 1565]

11 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

So what reason(s) are blOU fans saying as to why Riley probably left Norman??  

Just curious what the scuttlebutt is y'all are hearing... 

 

(I have Sooner friends that have talked about how Bob Stoops still parades around the office up there from time-to-time and supposedly some of Bob's bigger supporters have not been happy with Lincoln.  LR has not been real good at making donors feel all warm and fuzzy.) 

 

Don't care. I think the speculation is stupid and distracts from the task at hand.

[Vertigo 20500]

I am not believing that OU will take a step back in defense. Venables is a better coach than Grinch, so even if the talent dips next year a bit they should be able to scheme themselves into some stops. Offensively though, there is a less than zero chance that you don't take a massive step back next year. I believe Williams will likely stay, but he is losing two of his top three receivers, outside chance at all three, and he was a work in progress as a passer anyway minus the Texas game when we made him look like the second coming of Dan Marino. 

[quigley 1565]

9 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

OU has never had a QB that compares to Lawrence or Watson

Kyler Murray had an all-time season in his one year as starter. His offense averaged 48 points per game. His passer rating was 199, and he averaged 7 yds/carry on about 10 carries a game (none of the rushing numbers are sack adjusted).

Watson's offenses averaged 27, 37, and 37 points per game in the weak ACC. His passer rating dropped from 190 to 155 to 150 his final year. There were some people questioning his ability as a passer. He was a strong, but not explosive runner who averaged 4.4 yds/carry on about 10 carries a game.

Lawrence's offense's averaged about 45 points per game, again in the weaker ACC. His passer rating was in the 150 - 160 range throughout. He is an excellent runner with power and long speed and had about 7 carries a game and averaged 4 yds/carry.

You can split hairs between them. Kyler is at least a in the ballpark.

[Michael Knight 13239]

19 minutes ago, quigley said:

Kyler Murray had an all-time season in his one year as starter. His offense averaged 48 points per game. His passer rating was 199, and he averaged 7 yds/carry on about 10 carries a game (none of the rushing numbers are sack adjusted).

Watson's offenses averaged 27, 37, and 37 points per game in the weak ACC. His passer rating dropped from 190 to 155 to 150 his final year. There were some people questioning his ability as a passer. He was a strong, but not explosive runner who averaged 4.4 yds/carry on about 10 carries a game.

Lawrence's offense's averaged about 45 points per game, again in the weaker ACC. His passer rating was in the 150 - 160 range throughout. He is an excellent runner with power and long speed and had about 7 carries a game and averaged 4 yds/carry.

You can split hairs between them. Kyler is at least a in the ballpark.

Only 1 of those QB's was an ewok

[quigley 1565]

14 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

I am not believing that OU will take a step back in defense. Venables is a better coach than Grinch, so even if the talent dips next year a bit they should be able to scheme themselves into some stops. Offensively though, there is a less than zero chance that you don't take a massive step back next year. I believe Williams will likely stay, but he is losing two of his top three receivers, outside chance at all three, and he was a work in progress as a passer anyway minus the Texas game when we made him look like the second coming of Dan Marino. 

We agree about the defense, but the bar isn't that high there. OU's defense was in the 56th by advanced metrics (average of FPI, SP+, FEI). I feel confident OU hits the rather low bar of "stable production" on defense, but there is the possibility of improvement if there isn't a massive portal exodus.

The offense has already seen massive flux, and is likely to see more so I have little certainty here. Riley's last OU offense was very good by advanced stats (9th averaging FPI, SP+, FEI), but not outstanding. But good defenses had figured out that you could play a drop 7 zone shell with a spy for Williams. Versus defenses that would play this way, Sooners couldn't beat you running the ball, and Williams couldn't throw with timing and accuracy.

I think there's a less than 50% chance that Williams stays. If he does, he'll continue to show the growth that, looking closely, you could already see from the Baylor to Ok St game. If he stays, the odds of Mims and Mario Williams staying improve. Those are the only two receivers I care about. Other than those two, it'll be more important that Braydon Willis (TE/HB) stays than any of the other pass catchers. I assume Kennedy Brooks will go pro, but OU has one RB recruit who's already said he's sticking with the Sooners (Sawchuk, #5 back nationally) and another who remains a Sooner lean (Barnes, #10 nationally). Brooks was good, not great. The OL keeps their coach, and may have an easier system to master.

Lebby's version of the of the veer-and-shoot is attractive to throwers, catchers and runners. The portal taketh (?Caleb Williams) and the portal giveth (?Dillon Gabriel). Keeping a top 10 offense will be hard, but OU's inability to punish specific defensive schemes showed this year. If the offense has more diversity, some regression overall may not matter that much to the overall record.

[quigley 1565]

3 hours ago, taybo20 said:

Time to make Bates the DC at OU

FIFY

[texifornia 59023]

It's an open question how Lebby will do as the main man on offense. It's a whole lot different having a Briles or Kiffin as your boss versus a lifelong DC.

It could work, it's just going to be a shift for him.

[closetojumping 65475]

Reading okies equivocate about where the offense is going is outright fucking hysterical. Riley is an offensive witch. Gone. Multiple standout offensive players and probably the starting QB graduate or transfer. Whoops. But, oh hey, this Lebby guy, a rape-enabling Briles disciple, likes to throw deep if we trust that he can even competently call his own plays. And he might bring the UCF jagger. I see an offensive upgrade here, folks!

 

[Skipper 6412]

8 hours ago, quigley said:

 

Lebby's version of the of the veer-and-shoot is attractive to throwers, catchers and runners. The portal taketh (?Caleb Williams) and the portal giveth (?Dillon Gabriel). Keeping a top 10 offense will be hard, but OU's inability to punish specific defensive schemes showed this year. If the offense has more diversity, some regression overall may not matter that much to the overall record.

DG will almost certainly be at OU if Williams leaves.  Do think that is a given.  What is the chatter about why Lebby hasn't been announced and presumably coaching Ole Miss bowl game.  I'll probably hear background from coaching contacts after bowl season but curious what the boards are saying.   I would think OU could use the recruiting help unless there is an agreement in place and Lebby is wearing 2 hats.  But I don't see how that benefits Ole Miss unless they are hiring an OC internally and he's helping that recruiting transition?

[Johnny Sack 8397]

11 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep.  Doesn’t refute my point - Clemson needed those defenses badly.  Trust me I know quite well what just a great QB/offense can get done.  As you can tell, I’m still salty about all those wasted QB’s.  

Venables did not do so well his last time calling defensive plays at OU.  I think he got to largely face a lot of shitty and predicatable offenses in the ACC, which has been garbage outside of Clemson for a long time.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Reading okies equivocate about where the offense is going is outright fucking hysterical. Riley is an offensive witch. Gone. Multiple standout offensive players and probably the starting QB graduate or transfer. Whoops. But, oh hey, this Lebby guy, a rape-enabling Briles disciple, likes to throw deep if we trust that he can even competently call his own plays. And he might bring the UCF jagger. I see an offensive upgrade here, folks!

 

Is Lebby the one married to the Briles' daughter who made a fool out of herself defending the Baylor rape scandal?

[Divided Windows 21]

2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Reading okies equivocate about where the offense is going is outright fucking hysterical. Riley is an offensive witch. Gone. Multiple standout offensive players and probably the starting QB graduate or transfer. Whoops. But, oh hey, this Lebby guy, a rape-enabling Briles disciple, likes to throw deep if we trust that he can even competently call his own plays. And he might bring the UCF jagger. I see an offensive upgrade here, folks!

 

Assuming OU keeps CW (by no means a given, but presumed for argument's sake), who are the multiple standout players OU is losing on offense? Brooks and...

Mike Woods is graduating and the three portal guys are Stogner, Haselwood and Wease. Stogner caught 14 balls this year. Haselwood and Woods both had less than 400 yards receiving. Wease didn't play in 2021 and was pedestrian in 2020. Those four guys combined for less than 1000 yards of offense in 2021, which equals roughly 18% of OU's total offense. That kind of production should be replaceable via younger players and/or the portal.

The offensive line is losing a few guys, but it was below average this year (ask Rattler). Probably the two most talented OL starters (Raym and Harrison) will be back. None of the OL losses were standouts. I would be surprised if any of them are drafted. Again, all are theoretically replaceable via younger players and/or the portal.

Anytime you are replacing guys, there is a chance the replacements are not as good. My argument is with the exception of Brooks, the guys OU is replacing were average players and will most likely be replaced with comparably average players. As long as Brooks can be roughly replaced I think the talent levels will be a wash. There are reasons OU's offense could be worse next year, but I don't think a big drop off in talent level is likely to be one of them.

[kilroydos 267]

19 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Is Lebby the one married to the Briles' daughter who made a fool out of herself defending the Baylor rape scandal?

Absolutely.  There's a huge discrepancy between the reaction to his name on OU-centered boards and the Reddit community.  Reddit tends to be where the more reasonable and human posters show up, and they're pretty universally against this hire.  It varies from "this isn't a good idea" to "I have inroads to Joe C. and I'm seeing what can be done".  OU boards just want someone in place to help recruiting and they don't really know or care about the Baylor stuff apart from Lebby being asked to leave the field for potentially stealing signals a few years back.

[UDontKnow 10572]

9 minutes ago, kilroydos said:

Absolutely.  There's a huge discrepancy between the reaction to his name on OU-centered boards and the Reddit community.  Reddit tends to be where the more reasonable and human posters show up, and they're pretty universally against this hire.  It varies from "this isn't a good idea" to "I have inroads to Joe C. and I'm seeing what can be done".  OU boards just want someone in place to help recruiting and they don't really know or care about the Baylor stuff apart from Lebby being asked to leave the field for potentially stealing signals a few years back.

Debatable.

[kilroydos 267]

8 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

Debatable.

I can only speak to the OU side of things, but one prominent OU site had a fucking no-shame white nationalist show up and show off last night.  I'd take a million Reddit CFB posters over that shit.

[Tex Pete 21489]

7 minutes ago, kilroydos said:

I can only speak to the OU side of things, but one prominent OU site had a fucking no-shame white nationalist show up and show off last night.  I'd take a million Reddit CFB posters over that shit.

How about "none of the above?" Fuck OU.

[texifornia 59023]

On the one hand, he had a good season. On the other hand, Guyer turned him into a sad puddle in the playoffs.

 

Edited December 9, 2021 by texifornia

[Divided Windows 21]

3 hours ago, texifornia said:

On the one hand, he had a good season. On the other hand, Guyer turned him into a sad puddle in the playoffs.

 

OU just needs bodies at QB. If CW transfers, the only scholarship QB left is a guy who LR tried to switch to RB after he got beat out for the third string QB spot by a true freshman walk-on.

[quigley 1565]

37 minutes ago, Divided Windows said:

OU just needs bodies at QB. If CW transfers, the only scholarship QB left is a guy who LR tried to switch to RB after he got beat out for the third string QB spot by a true freshman walk-on.

Even if CW stays, the rationale (the weak rationale) for not taking at 2022 QB is now gone was the 2023 commit has de-committed.

[Divided Windows 21]

2 hours ago, quigley said:

Even if CW stays, the rationale (the weak rationale) for not taking at 2022 QB is now gone was the 2023 commit has de-committed.

This strategy always seemed unwise to me. It assumed every QB pans out. I guess maybe LR thought he could raid the portal for stopgaps if necessary, but you can't pull an emergency portal QB in the middle of the year. The strategy also devalues competition. If it worked how LR planned and Rattler started every game this season and then went pro, CW would be handed the job in the spring. I don't like a lack of competition in a position room. I'd take a QB in every class.

[Bevo14 8468]

17 minutes ago, Divided Windows said:

This strategy always seemed unwise to me. It assumed every QB pans out. I guess maybe LR thought he could raid the portal for stopgaps if necessary, but you can't pull an emergency portal QB in the middle of the year. The strategy also devalues competition. If it worked how LR planned and Rattler started every game this season and then went pro, CW would be handed the job in the spring. I don't like a lack of competition in a position room. I'd take a QB in every class.

It's a sound strategy.  Who needs Andrew Luck?

[kilroydos 267]

5 minutes ago, Bevo14 said:

It's a sound strategy.  Who needs Andrew Luck?

I do wonder how much of it was expressed "strategy" and how much was a reaction to a push against competition.  Publicly, Riley always said he wouldn't ever take just a body, he wanted only guys who he could project as Heisman, Round 1 guys.  Realistically, he brought in Chandler Morris and Tanner Mordecai, both of whom were good, but not world-beaters.

The other vision is Ohio State, who just brings in what they can and lets go whoever gets beaten out.  This is probably closer to what the new normal will be.

[texifornia 59023]

lol wtf

 

[UnhappilyMarried 842]

Did he really need to promote an analyst to DC to bring him along?
 

Why would you not just overpay him as an analyst and use the position coach spot to throw a co DC title at a bag man to share with Venables HC/Co DC?

[SarkAfterDark 1751]

[Huckleberry 34702]

I mean I don't blame Sarkisian for being hired when he shouldn't have been hired. He tried to get a job and he got it. That's not really his fault.

But I'm gonna start hating him if he doesn't take advantage of all the Christmas gifts falling right in his fucking lap the last couple of weeks. Holy shit.

[Chooky 13340]

Lebby is a fat name. It just sounds fat. If you refrigerate cream gravy for four days it turns into "lebby." Then it has to be exported to Japan, because the Japanese are the only people who will eat lebby.

[texasstrong12 4668]

Ted Roof lulz. 

[Chooky 13340]

OU has already put out a "we hate rape" statement on account of Lebby. 

 

 

[texifornia 59023]

1 minute ago, Chooky said:

OU has already put out a "we hate rape" statement on account of Lebby. 

 

 

So they've got a guy that they literally had to say in a press release isn't a rape-enabling monster leading one side of the team, and a guy who was considered a has-been retread a decade ago and most recently got fired at Vanderbilt leading the other.

All under a first-time head coach.

Bang up job all around.

[Chooky 13340]

Yes. Moar.

 

 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18963]

Quote

In speaking with Jeff, it is abundantly clear that he also knows and will embrace OU's expectations of him both on and off the field.

I don't think any of us doubt the sincerity of that statement.

[Scholz 12309]

You don’t need to do a background check on Lebby. He’s clearly and overtly proven to be a shitty human being way out in the open.

[Chooky 13340]

Jeff Lebby's wife is is gross and she's married to Jeff Lebby.

[texifornia 59023]

5 minutes ago, Scholz said:

You don’t need to do a background check on Lebby. He’s clearly and overtly proven to be a shitty human being way out in the open.

He's absolutely part of the Kendal Briles "heh heh you like white girls, right?" school of gender relations

[Scholz 12309]

This hire begs the question of if Bowl flop Bob is going to once again be allowed to recruit a couple of wifebeaters as interim coach?

[gmr548 16702]

Venables did not do so well his last time calling defensive plays at OU.  I think he got to largely face a lot of shitty and predicatable offenses in the ACC, which has been garbage outside of Clemson for a long time.

*gestures toward pretty much all of the Big 12*

This is not the offensive conference it used to be.

[quigley 1565]

5 hours ago, texifornia said:

lol wtf

 

Roof isn't the Clemson defensive coach I was hoping Venables would bring with him. On the bright side, a 60 year old white dude is probably going to be a great recruiter. This is bad at it's face, not Mike Stoops-to-Texas bad, but bad.