COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[justhookit 4191]

Spinning this off from the other DT thread, and the 2 CR (Costa Rica) threads because a lot gets lost in the pissing matches. Heck I can’t keep track because I post in all of those and also end up putting some of my info in the Port A thread.

@Dahobbs @Anastasis @BradInATX @Skipper. I’m not aware of anyone keeping much track of this in Houston but let’s get them here too. I’m sure I am missing some people. Let’s get them here.

i’ll start. Corpus/Nueces County has basically increased their TOTAL covid case count by 35% this week. In ONE WEEK. I’m having a hard time believing it but it’s happening in front of my eyes.  I have an argument and it’s not real strong, but this area just didn’t have many cases prior to early June. I was convinced that we were going to see a bunch of cases after spring break. We saw basically none. It just wasn’t here. Now that it is, and we are bringing it in from everywhere I’m somewhat convinced we are going to see a continued increase until we once again shut down indoor spreading scenarios.

some of y’all know I also spend a bunch of time in Costa Rica, and their curve looks strangely like ours. The common denominator is the re-opening. They didn’t celebrate Memorial Day and they definitely didn’t protest.

here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/costa-rica/

maybe when I am less lazy I’ll post the actual graphics.

 

Edit-  CR as in Costa Rica, not to be confused with our own surly CR, has been shut down to foreign travel since mid April. They still are. Hell, if you are a citizen and you want to go home right now you have to quarantine 14 days.

 

[justhookit 4191]

My further comments may have invited the political posters. I should have stopped after the first few paragraphs.  Sorry.

from what I have been told and what I have read, it looks like Travis, Bexar, and Harris are seeing the same thing only to a lesser extent.

on the bright side mask usage was WAY up here today, and the new order doesn’t even go into effect until Wednesday.

[Tailgate 3024]

Ya, was happy to see Austin pretty much all masked up on the couple stops I made yesterday morning. Let’s bend that curve.

[justhookit 4191]

We are way past bending the curve in Texas,  no offense. Can the collective of individuals and businesses do it on their own? Maybe.

im sure I mentioned it on another thread and it was sort of why I started this new one, but Nueces County decided to go ahead and report new cases today after deciding to not do it last weekend. We had 49 today. That’s..... not good unless we report 0 tomorrow.

 

[Newdoc 3453]

At this point we will need to concentrate on slowing logarithmic spread which is what we have right now. I have always contended that Covid will burn through our population until we have herd immunity and/or a vaccine. The question still remains as to a burn with a smoldering fire or wildfire.

The number of people I see still claiming this is all increased testing is bewildering.

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

At this point we will need to concentrate on slowing logarithmic spread which is what we have right now. I have always contended that Covid will burn through our population until we have herd immunity and/or a vaccine. The question still remains as to a burn with a smoldering fire or wildfire.

The number of people I see still claiming this is all increased testing is bewildering.

It’s insane.

i’m on record a few times months ago saying exactly what you are saying - we aren’t out of this without a vaccine or herd immunity, but I did add a viable treatment to my thoughts. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

We are definitely seeing logarithmic spread right now in localized areas. I’m not a doc or a virologist but I kind of expected this. But We don’t want to see the whole of Texas become NYC. Or Italy 😂

Edited June 21, 2020 by justhookit

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Here are some views of Austin:

New Hospital Admits experienced a big jump around 6/10. Avg for June 1 - 9 was 11.8/day. Since June 10 Avg per day has been 25.36. Past three days (June 18-20) 30.66.

Very similar view of Total Hospitalizations. Huge jump around 6/10 as well.

In addition to this great news new cases hit >400 on a single day for first time in Austin. With 418 on 6/20. They city is not reporting new cases for June 18th (they were updating their server - at least from the Arcgis Map site). Based on new case spike (220 on 6/17, 295 on 6/19, 418 on 6/20) we will be seeing a increase in hospital admits. (based on the R2 value of Admissions to Cases)

Hang on to your anuses.

 

[Updawg 2286]

Go over to texags and they will tell you it’s a hoax and no reason to wear a mask

[justhookit 4191]

Yeah I don’t like that Austin data. I’m a numbers guy and when I cant correlate it to anything here in Nueces or freaking Costa Rica showing the exact same bump, it bugs me.

[justhookit 4191]

Also it looks like Harris County is doing good the last few days? Someone help me out here.

[gsoda3 3283]

Yeah I don’t like that Austin data. I’m a numbers guy and when I cant correlate it to anything here in Nueces or freaking Costa Rica showing the exact same bump, it bugs me.

What do you mean? It matches up quite well to the reopening

[Stella Link 534]

2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

At this point we will need to concentrate on slowing logarithmic spread which is what we have right now. I have always contended that Covid will burn through our population until we have herd immunity and/or a vaccine. The question still remains as to a burn with a smoldering fire or wildfire.

The number of people I see still claiming this is all increased testing is bewildering.

Agree with this.  At this point, testing may have a smidgen to do with the increase, but the biggest increase are from people still not taking this seriously, or think the worst is behind us.  While some people are still not wearing masks, I have now seen people wearing face shields.  

I'm tired of this crap too.  But we can't let our guard down.

[bluto 4943]

Friend works at parkland, said their covid hospitalizations jumped from 88 to 109 in just a couple days time this past week. They were avg 60-70 before phase 2.

[justhookit 4191]

8 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

11 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Yeah I don’t like that Austin data. I’m a numbers guy and when I cant correlate it to anything here in Nueces or freaking Costa Rica showing the exact same bump, it bugs me.

What do you mean? It matches up quite well to the reopening

Sorry, yeah that’s what I meant. It should have read anything OTHER THAN. I’ve posted all over the board and that’s why I was trying to consolidate it on this thread. The reopening is the only thing that explains it.

[justhookit 4191]

24 minutes ago, gsoda3 said:

28 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Yeah I don’t like that Austin data. I’m a numbers guy and when I cant correlate it to anything here in Nueces or freaking Costa Rica showing the exact same bump, it bugs me.

What do you mean? It matches up quite well to the reopening

Here, I’ll do this the lazy way with screenshots. Costa Rica had no Memorial Day and no protests. Does this look familiar?

 

[fattyflattie 4638]

Damn, didn’t know there was a Port A thread, need to check that out. 
 

Had a work fishing deal down there a few weeks ago, and asked the guide his thoughts.  He said no one in corpus was treating it seriously, himself included.  Said he thought they already had it back in Dec/Jan.  I asked specifically because the week before I was in Falfurrias, and they were taking it very, very serious. 
 

I took the wife out to dinner for her birthday yesterday here in Houston.   More masks than I’ve seen since the start of the whole thing.  Had to stop by a store to finalize some construction materials for our contractor, only 1 couple not wearing a mask.  Houston has seemed to pull a 180 from everything I’ve seen.  Maybe we passed the mask=politics here? 
 

That’s all I’ve got, I hope this thread stays better than the rest. 

[bschoolprof 6273]

3 hours ago, Newdoc said:

At this point we will need to concentrate on slowing logarithmic spread which is what we have right now. I have always contended that Covid will burn through our population until we have herd immunity and/or a vaccine. The question still remains as to a burn with a smoldering fire or wildfire.

The number of people I see still claiming this is all increased testing is bewildering.

 

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

It’s insane.

i’m on record a few times months ago saying exactly what you are saying - we aren’t out of this without a vaccine or herd immunity, but I did add a viable treatment to my thoughts. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills.

We are definitely seeing logarithmic spread right now in localized areas. I’m not a doc or a virologist but I kind of expected this. But We don’t want to see the whole of Texas become NYC. Or Italy 😂

Not to nitpick (that's my job actually), but I think you fellas mean exponential spread.  Logarithmic spread is the inverse (since log is the inverse of exp), which would be a good thing.  

[justhookit 4191]

16 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Damn, didn’t know there was a Port A thread, need to check that out. 
 

Had a work fishing deal down there a few weeks ago, and asked the guide his thoughts.  He said no one in corpus was treating it seriously, himself included.  Said he thought they already had it back in Dec/Jan.  I asked specifically because the week before I was in Falfurrias, and they were taking it very, very serious. 
 

I took the wife out to dinner for her birthday yesterday here in Houston.   More masks than I’ve seen since the start of the whole thing.  Had to stop by a store to finalize some construction materials for our contractor, only 1 couple not wearing a mask.  Houston has seemed to pull a 180 from everything I’ve seen.  Maybe we passed the mask=politics here? 
 

That’s all I’ve got, I hope this thread stays better than the rest. 

Yeah I was sick as fuck over Xmas with literally all the symptoms. My girlfriend is convinced I had it. I still think I had a flu or Port A crud bug. I *hope* I had it though.

fortunately it looks like the mask political issue will go away this week. Port A did a really really good job from late March through the beginning of June with no new cases. My contention is it wasn’t here. Now most everyone thinks it’s no big deal, but it is here, so let’s see how this town reacts. So far so good, businesses are closing on their own.

i’ll try to police this thread with maybe a little help from @blacklaband @immamac. I’m interested in what is happening, especially with actual facts and numbers. The other threads have gotten unreadable..

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

12 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

 

Not to nitpick (that's my job actually), but I think you fellas mean exponential spread.  Logarithmic spread is the inverse (since log is the inverse of exp), which would be a good thing.  

I will bite.  Fuck I hated statistics in B-School.  I thought they were just different ways of showing the same data. Why do I keep hearing that the “growth is shown on a logarithmic chart so it looks flatter than it is.”  

[justhookit 4191]

13 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

 

Not to nitpick (that's my job actually), but I think you fellas mean exponential spread.  Logarithmic spread is the inverse (since log is the inverse of exp), which would be a good thing.  

Fuck you. It was 9 am on a Sunday morning when we made those posts. And besides I was folllowing his lead. I should know better he’s a doc. I’m just lazy with my terminology.

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

11 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I will bite.  Fuck I hated statistics in B-School.  I thought they were just different ways of showing the same data. Why do I keep hearing that the “growth is shown on a logarithmic chart so it looks flatter than it is.”  

The axis on the chart is logarithmic, not the data. 
since they are inversely related as shown above, you can use a logarithmic chart with exponential data to get a linear path. 
 

or vice versa. 

Edited June 21, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[MNLonghornFUKM 8822]

I will bite.  Fuck I hated statistics in B-School.  I thought they were just different ways of showing the same data. Why do I keep hearing that the “growth is shown on a logarithmic chart so it looks flatter than it is.”  

I’ll be content if I never look at another graph for the rest of my life after this is over.

[Anastasis 23487]

10 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I will bite.  Fuck I hated statistics in B-School.  I thought they were just different ways of showing the same data. Why do I keep hearing that the “growth is shown on a logarithmic chart so it looks flatter than it is.”  

It’s a semi log scale that is used, log scale on y and linear on x.  It transforms the exponential growth curve into a linear growth pattern. 

[Serak The Preparer 3434]

10 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I will bite.  Fuck I hated statistics in B-School.  I thought they were just different ways of showing the same data. Why do I keep hearing that the “growth is shown on a logarithmic chart so it looks flatter than it is.”  

As @bschoolprof pointed out, exponential and logarithmic growth are inversely related. That means if you have logarithmic growth, but show the data with the y-axis using exponential growth, they "cancel" each out out and you have a straight line. Similarly, with exponential growth, if you plot using a logarithmic scale, it looks linear (or flatter). It is easy to get growth vs scale mixed in the message.

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I’ll be content if I never look at another graph for the rest of my life after this is over.

Some are more informative than others...

[justhookit 4191]

24 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

 

Not to nitpick (that's my job actually), but I think you fellas mean exponential spread.  Logarithmic spread is the inverse (since log is the inverse of exp), which would be a good thing.  

Also, will you please be my post editor going forward? It’s somewhat unclear whether you are a technical writer, math expert, or professor but I have no doubt we will all be much better off if you review and/or revise all these posts. But seriously, glad to have you aboard what I hope will be an informative thread.

[fattyflattie 4638]

19 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Yeah I was sick as fuck over Xmas with literally all the symptoms. My girlfriend is convinced I had it. I still think I had a flu or Port A crud bug. I *hope* I had it though.

We had same type deal in January, but tested neg on flu. I coughed enough to tear something in my ribs, and doc gave me some painkillers for.  But who knows.  I hope we can come together to knock this thing down, political teams be damned.   Back to the smart math people reminding me of graph technicalities I’ve tried so hard to remove from my brain. 

[justhookit 4191]

Y’all are fucking killing me trying to think back almost 30 years ago.

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

26 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Yeah I was sick as fuck over Xmas with literally all the symptoms. My girlfriend is convinced I had it. I still think I had a flu or Port A crud bug. I *hope* I had it though.

fortunately it looks like the mask political issue will go away this week. Port A did a really really good job from late March through the beginning of June with no new cases. My contention is it wasn’t here. Now most everyone thinks it’s no big deal, but it is here, so let’s see how this town reacts. So far so good, businesses are closing on their own.

i’ll try to police this thread with maybe a little help from @blacklaband @immamac. I’m interested in what is happening, especially with actual facts and numbers. The other threads have gotten unreadable..

I’m not sure I can follow the logic that it was there over Xmas and you got it, but it disappeared by March such that there was no community issue, with zero mitigation. 
therefore my conclusion is you didn’t have it. 

[justhookit 4191]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m not sure I can follow the logic that it was there over Xmas and you got it, but it disappeared by March such that there was no community issue, with zero mitigation. 
therefore my conclusion is you didn’t have it. 

I travel. But like I said I don’t think I had it. Like 99% sure.

edit- and when I did get sick, I sure as hell didn’t leave the house. There’s a lesson there.

Edited June 21, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4191]

So continuing on that thought and I’m in a unique position to see this - contact tracing. If what I have seen with the cases I know here personally it’s not going to do fuck-all to help us. The people that have it don’t want to admit it, they don’t stay home, and the people they have directly exposed sure as hell aren’t staying home. It’s Port A so limited sample size and all, but I can tell you that for every one person trying to do the right thing, there are 2 or 3 that are just going about living their life.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

SafeGraph's COVID numbers, which track cell phone movement, show a bottom both nationally and in Texas around June 9th.  Since then people are staying home a little bit more than before, but the trend is only slightly upward.  It is a small effect so far but at least it is trending in a good direction.  Hopefully people are getting the message and becoming a bit more cautious.

If lower mobility translates to lower cases, we might see a peak in reported cases in Texas maybe 15-22 days (a pure guess) after the bottom in mobility, or somewhere between June 24th and July 1st. 

Edited June 21, 2020 by Texas Jeff

[Parliament 14337]

Not to nitpick (that's my job actually), but I think you fellas mean exponential spread.  Logarithmic spread is the inverse (since log is the inverse of exp), which would be a good thing.  

I will bite.  Fuck I hated statistics in B-School.  I thought they were just different ways of showing the same data. Why do I keep hearing that the “growth is shown on a logarithmic chart so it looks flatter than it is.”  

Fuck you. It was 9 am on a Sunday morning when we made those posts. And besides I was folllowing his lead. I should know better he’s a doc. I’m just lazy with my terminology.

The axis on the chart is logarithmic, not the data. 
since they are inversely related as shown above, you can use a logarithmic chart with exponential data to get a linear path. 
 
or vice versa. 

It’s a semi log scale that is used, log scale on y and linear on x.  It transforms the exponential growth curve into a linear growth pattern. 

As [mention=1403]bschoolprof[/mention] pointed out, exponential and logarithmic growth are inversely related. That means if you have logarithmic growth, but show the data with the y-axis using exponential growth, they "cancel" each out out and you have a straight line. Similarly, with exponential growth, if you plot using a logarithmic scale, it looks linear (or flatter). It is easy to get growth vs scale mixed in the message.

2020 math talk not going away.

[gmr548 16617]

4 hours ago, Newdoc said:

At this point we will need to concentrate on slowing logarithmic spread which is what we have right now. I have always contended that Covid will burn through our population until we have herd immunity and/or a vaccine. The question still remains as to a burn with a smoldering fire or wildfire.

The number of people I see still claiming this is all increased testing is bewildering.

The people claiming it's all the testing increase are being willfully ignorant. Testing is up for June vs May, maybe by a couple thousand a day just by eyeballing. It's not a big enough increase to drive a huge spike in cases at the same positivity rate. And it isn't doing that because the testing positivity rate is up too. Our seven day average positive rate is 8.9 percent. It hasn't been that high since mid-April, when a test required three blowjobs and a herd of goats.

1 hour ago, Updawg said:

Go over to texags and they will tell you it’s a hoax and no reason to wear a mask

You can find that here on this site too. Probably not as widespread though.

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Damn, didn’t know there was a Port A thread, need to check that out. 
 

Had a work fishing deal down there a few weeks ago, and asked the guide his thoughts.  He said no one in corpus was treating it seriously, himself included.  Said he thought they already had it back in Dec/Jan.  I asked specifically because the week before I was in Falfurrias, and they were taking it very, very serious. 
 

I took the wife out to dinner for her birthday yesterday here in Houston.   More masks than I’ve seen since the start of the whole thing.  Had to stop by a store to finalize some construction materials for our contractor, only 1 couple not wearing a mask.  Houston has seemed to pull a 180 from everything I’ve seen.  Maybe we passed the mask=politics here? 
 

That’s all I’ve got, I hope this thread stays better than the rest. 

Where in Houston were you? I've not been inside the loop during the pandemic but it's a complete cultural 180 from the outer areas of town or the suburbs. Stayed at my girlfriend's parents' place in Cypress earlier this month when we went to the coast. Picked up food to go for dinner and it looked like any old Friday night at the restaurant. Didn't go to their HEB because we were told we'd be the only ones in masks. No pandemic out there in aggyland. This was when Houston area hospitalizations had already started to climb, and there was a hug difference in daily cases in Houston vs. outlying Harris County. I felt gaslighted. It was very strange.

[bschoolprof 6273]

34 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Also, will you please be my post editor going forward? It’s somewhat unclear whether you are a technical writer, math expert, or professor but I have no doubt we will all be much better off if you review and/or revise all these posts. But seriously, glad to have you aboard what I hope will be an informative thread.

I wasn't trying to start start math talk (oops).

Anyway, our shit appears to be fucked up and the trends worry me.  

[SydneyCarton 48208]

1 hour ago, fattyflattie said:

Damn, didn’t know there was a Port A thread, need to check that out. 
 

Had a work fishing deal down there a few weeks ago, and asked the guide his thoughts.  He said no one in corpus was treating it seriously, himself included.  Said he thought they already had it back in Dec/Jan.  I asked specifically because the week before I was in Falfurrias, and they were taking it very, very serious. 
 

I took the wife out to dinner for her birthday yesterday here in Houston.   More masks than I’ve seen since the start of the whole thing.  Had to stop by a store to finalize some construction materials for our contractor, only 1 couple not wearing a mask.  Houston has seemed to pull a 180 from everything I’ve seen.  Maybe we passed the mask=politics here? 
 

That’s all I’ve got, I hope this thread stays better than the rest. 

Houston has implemented a mask policy. Businesses can be fined for not enforcing it on customers who visit their establishments. So that’s why you’re seeing more masks id wager. 
 

just checking in as a Houstonian. Definitely feel like shit is hitting the fan. It’s incidental info, but there’s a signature care about a half mile from our house on TC Jester. The last week plus it’s had a line of cars wrapping a mile or more all the way around TC Jester. It’s sold out several times this week by noon. People are getting sicker. Many just don’t care. I’ll echo the Samuel L. Hold Onto Your Butts sentiment. 

[fattyflattie 4638]

20 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Where in Houston were you?

West side, Katy/Richmond/Sugarland. Sugarland has been diligent entire time, cultural thing. 
 

13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Houston has implemented a mask policy.

I heard that but didn’t know the specifics.  I mean even the patrons in cavenders were wearing masks. Pretty large contrast from what I’ve been seeing on my side of town - where this is all a hoax and same as the flu...

[EuroHorn 3272]

47 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’m not sure I can follow the logic that it was there over Xmas and you got it, but it disappeared by March such that there was no community issue, with zero mitigation. 
therefore my conclusion is you didn’t have it. 

Because wide testing for Covid didn’t start until quite a bit later this year, my guess is there were quite a few cases classified as influenza like illness.  Also the first known case in the US happened in January.  Italy is now saying it was in the country as early as December 

Edited June 21, 2020 by EuroHorn

[gmr548 16617]

Just now, fattyflattie said:

West side, Katy/Richmond/Sugarland. Sugarland has been diligent entire time, cultural thing. 

That's good to hear that people are taking it seriously out there. Your observation on Sugar Land makes sense.

[SydneyCarton 48208]

5 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

West side, Katy/Richmond/Sugarland. Sugarland has been diligent entire time, cultural thing. 
 

I heard that but didn’t know the specifics.  I mean even the patrons in cavenders were wearing masks. Pretty large contrast from what I’ve been seeing on my side of town - where this is all a hoax and same as the flu...

You can just say Asians, man. Sugarland has a huge asian population. 
 

yeah, the cavenders can be fined per unmasked customer. 

[Tailgate 3024]

Agree it’s a matter of trying to control it at this point. I’m just bummed I’m not hitting @justhookit up for a charter in Costa Rica...instead 2020 continues to be the WTF year of all time.

[fattyflattie 4638]

25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

You can just say Asians, man. Sugarland has a huge asian population. 

Well, Indians too. But yes, a lot of their population wears masks even during non-pandemic times.  And it’s just a nice area that’s decently monied, less common clay if you will. 

[justhookit 4191]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

Also it looks like Harris County is doing good the last few days? Someone help me out here.

Anyone?

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, Texas Jeff said:

SafeGraph's COVID numbers, which track cell phone movement, show a bottom both nationally and in Texas around June 9th.  Since then people are staying home a little bit more than before, but the trend is only slightly upward.  It is a small effect so far but at least it is trending in a good direction.  Hopefully people are getting the message and becoming a bit more cautious.

If lower mobility translates to lower cases, we might see a peak in reported cases in Texas maybe 15-22 days (a pure guess) after the bottom in mobility, or somewhere between June 24th and July 1st. 

I’ll have to look at that more closely later, but at first glance it doesn’t look right at all.

[justhookit 4191]

14 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Agree it’s a matter of trying to control it at this point. I’m just bummed I’m not hitting @justhookit up for a charter in Costa Rica...instead 2020 continues to be the WTF year of all time.

You and me both. I’m bummed I can’t even get there anymore. If they announced a flight tomorrow I’d be on it.

[HRSchenker 2274]

I'd really like to know how many people who are taking precautions are still testing positive. Are you washing your hands? Are you wearing a mask? Are you avoiding crowds? I don't ask for political purposes but I'd really like to get an idea of how infectious this disease is even after preparing for it. Everyone I know that has tested positive have been either health care workers who are masked & hand washing or elderly people not doing any of those things.

[Js1 85606]

Super cool personal anecdote. V scientific 

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

23 minutes ago, HRSchenker said:

I'd really like to know how many people who are taking precautions are still testing positive. Are you washing your hands? Are you wearing a mask? Are you avoiding crowds? I don't ask for political purposes but I'd really like to get an idea of how infectious this disease is even after preparing for it. Everyone I know that has tested positive have been either health care workers who are masked & hand washing or elderly people not doing any of those things.

This is where we are. We are pretty risk averse, but getting accurate info to adjust our behavior proportional to our risk tolerance is difficult. The only thing I feel good about saying factually is that the more info we get, the less severe this seems to be.  We also know how mental health would be affected by a complete withdrawal from society.  
 

would be nice if our community would take ANY precautions so that we don’t feel that it’s all on us to keep it out of our household. But nope, not until it gets bad. 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

23 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 We also know how mental health would be affected by a complete withdrawal from society.  

Very positively, right?

[Skipper 6209]

They were late posting the most recent Dallas data (supposed to be released Tues/Friday but Friday data must have finally been released sometime Saturday afternoon).  It's pretty damn bad.  And it's crazy that it's shot up out of nowhere.  Really interesting to see what numbers show next week.  Here is the link:

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/COVID-19 DCHHS Summary_061920.pdf

A couple of highlights:

1.  Positive test rate jumped from 13.5% to 23.2%.  For current data through week ending 6/13.  That's pretty insane.

2.  Hospitalizations for week ending 6/13 shows 177 currently which is a big increase over prior 2 weeks.  Looking at that chart and graph alone isn't too concerning. Particularly when you see that the week ending 5/23 had 206.   But if you look at these charts every week, per my prior posts explaining in more detail, historically "good" data lags 7/10 days.  So that current number of 177 is likely to jump up higher by the time we get next Friday's report.  But more importantly what is the trend going to be for week ending 6/20 and the weeks that follow?

Dallas did amend the mask order so maybe that will help but the next 2 weeks of hospitalizations are pretty baked in at this point since hospitalization lags infection by a couple of weeks. So things could be looking pretty bleak by July 4th weekend.  Hopefully increased mask wearing will help.

The other interesting data point to watch over the next few weeks is whether a similar increase in ICU admissions follow hospital admissions.  If not, that would seem to show that we are getting better at treating it, it's less virulent over the summer or fewer 65+ are getting sick (or likely some combo of those factors).  Hopefully that is the case.