COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BradInATX 9208]

Anyone have a definitive answer on whether or not breweries are included in the bar re-shutdown? 

[Bevo 13600]

44 minutes ago, elfenix said:

herd immunity is dependent upon Rnaught.  the lower the Rnaught, the lower the herd immunity %.   so if Rnaught is 2, herd immunity is 50%.  if 5, 80%.  if measles and >10,  then it's >90%

Correct on the math but R0 is not a fixed number and herd immunity is not a fixed number. Proper PPE, hand washing, social distancing and an already exposed population lowers R0 so herd immunity ends up being a lower percentage of the population.

I always say, look at it logically. If a certain percentage of the population is immune and a certain percentage of the population is taking proper precautions, the disease will spread more slowly.

[justhookit 4191]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Anyone have a definitive answer on whether or not breweries are included in the bar re-shutdown? 

Far as I know if they are allowing alcohol consumption on premises, then they fall under the 51% rule like any other bar. Hopefully they sell a lot of food.

[elfenix 34332]

6 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Proper PPE, hand washing, social distancing and an already exposed population lowers R0

no, that's Reffective, not Rnaught.  especially the last one.  Rnaught is when no one has been infected or immunized. some health departments also add 'and no deliberate interventions in disease transmissions'

Edited June 28, 2020 by elfenix

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Far as I know if they are allowing alcohol consumption on premises, then they fall under the 51% rule like any other bar. Hopefully they sell a lot of food.

That sucks. The breweries around my house were doing a great job. Outdoors only, masks until you sit down, tables social distanced (big time, like 30 feet apart), etc. It was one of the few we were comfortable doing that had some connection to "normal life" outside of the house. And they get fucked over because a bunch of jackass White Claw and Bud Light drinkers and the bars they love couldn't follow the rules.

 

** Disclaimer: I like Bud Light just fine.

Edited June 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[UT_OB1 2224]

2 hours ago, Bartles said:

Ouch, that's like 200 more than Philly ever got in a day. Still, there's a decent chance the recent hotspot numbers will plateau in about a week and then slowly come back down. Despite incompetence from local and fed governments, and despite so much anecdotal evidence of dumbassery...a ton of people have taken notice and are adjusting their behavior. Basically staying home.

Just clarify, that number is Bexar county which is ~2 million people.  Granted San Antonio makes up about 1.5 million of that.

[UT_OB1 2224]

14 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

HEB putting in limits again.

https://www.kvue.com/article/money/business/heb-purchasing-limits-update/273-a97ac2c9-3954-4834-8843-a7c7190bc36d

Oh, and @Brisketexan

On a side note, our little neighborhood Randall's had plenty of toilet paper and hand sanitizer.  It was actually odd how much they had - either people are shopping there much (lol) or they have been watching the news and are pushing out as much as they can.

I’m glad they are putting in limits early on toilet paper. Most mfgs are considered essential employees and will continue to show up to work. The TP will flow. 
 

There may be hiccups like we saw with our daily pork belly updates that impact eh supply chain and cause some increase in price, but we aren’t going to run out.  

[Iceman 2725]

next week we will be opening the pack of TP we bought on the initial "We all gonna shit ourselves" mania back in March.

 

Thank Gawd we had it.

[justhookit 4191]

25 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That sucks. The breweries around my house were doing a great job. Outdoors only, masks until you sit down, tables social distanced (big time, like 30 feet apart), etc. It was one of the few we were comfortable doing that had some connection to "normal life" outside of the house. And they get fucked over because a bunch of jackass White Claw and Bud Light drinkers and the bars they love couldn't follow the rules.

 

** Disclaimer: I like Bud Light just fine.

Yeah, same thing just happened to my go to place during all of this. Gaff can still do their pizza and sell beer to go, but we can no longer get a beer through the window and then sit outside to drink it like we could last time. They were also trying to do the right thing. Early this week they removed all but a few barstools, then on Wednesday they entirely closed their indoor seating. 

if here is any indication of what’s to come for y’all, the restaurants that have bar seating will turn into de facto bars, and end up getting those places closed too. I’m fine with that because I haven’t been inside a restaurant since mid March, but it still sucks.

[BrickHorn 18285]

2 hours ago, ABSR said:

Per this Johns Hopkins site https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality the death rate per 100,000 in the US is 38.37.   Now blatant disregard of precautions could drive that up, but if we just use that number then it equal .0003837 per 100,000.

And if you use that number yet again, it equals .0000003837 per 100,000. So it’s pretty low. And that doesn’t even factor in the analysis where you again use that number and it equals .0000000003837 per 100,000. 

Sarcasm aside: that stat you cited is deaths per total population, not infected. Unlike case fatality rate, which should remain relatively constant, the overall fatality rate increases as the disease spreads. In New York for example, where coronavirus was fairly widespread, the overall fatality rate is 1.6 per 1,000 (or 160 per 100,000). 

[Bevo 13600]

55 minutes ago, elfenix said:

no, that's Reffective, not Rnaught.  especially the last one.  Rnaught is when no one has been infected or immunized. some health departments also add 'and no deliberate interventions in disease transmissions'

Is there a decent way to search this forum? I explained a bunch of this shit awhile back. Basically, herd immunity will not be 80% as initially predicted but will be much lower due to proper precautions and the shutdowns.

[Armybrat 40903]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

Apparently they didn't realize that by playing stupid games, they won a stupid prize.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/texas-bar-nightclub-alliance-file-suit-over-governors-bars-order/269-3a115d64-19c5-4c10-8c64-a630ce9ba549

The salons and restaurants are at least trying to pretend to follow the established guidelines, but for fuck's sake, far too many bars seemed to be running full-tilt like nothing was going on.

Alcoholics gonna alcohol

[Newdoc 3453]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

no, that's Reffective, not Rnaught.  especially the last one.  Rnaught is when no one has been infected or immunized. some health departments also add 'and no deliberate interventions in disease transmissions'

Yes, even major publications keep using R naught when they should be using R (t) or R effective. I don't know if anybody really has a great grasp on R values because it is hard to calculate in the middle of a pandemic.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[bschoolprof 6272]

17 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Harris county update from SETRAC:

Covid ICU patients up 25 from yesterday; Total ICU patients (covid and non-covid) up 38 from yesterday.

Total Covid patients in hospital up 92; Total patients (covid and non-covid) in hospital down 568.  

Link

 

Today's update:

COVID patients in ICU up 62 from yesterday; Total (covid and non-covid) patients in ICU up 8 from yesterday

Total Covid patients in hospital up 107; Total patients (covid and non-covid) in hospital down 101.

[atomheartbevo 89789]

A long time ago (months) in the main thread, people bitched that I was bitching about other counties in Texas fucking around and not taking this seriously, and that it was going to cause problems for those of us in the larger cities (on top of our own problems).

Well, Williamson County has a little problem with their hospital capacity.  Gee, I wonder who is going to pick up the slack.  Because, you know, we aren't going to keep adding to our hospitalizations or anything.

Quote

Hospital capacity, particularly ICU bed capacity, is expected to be outstripped in all Cities in the County in the next week if trends continue.

ICU Bed utilization in the County increased again yesterday to a new record high since we began tracking it (86.6%), with a further surge in hospitalizations still expected.

• Round Rock: 2 out of the 3 hospitals have maxed out their ICU beds and are at 100% utilization. There are 5 total available ICU beds in Round Rock, all at one hospital. Round Rock has 333 active cases and can expect to need 16-17 ICU beds in the next 10-14 days (three times what is available).
•  Georgetown: There are 4 available ICU beds. Georgetown has 178 active cases and can expect to need 9 ICU beds in the next 10-14 days (five more than available).
•  Cedar Park: There are 4 available ICU beds. Cedar Park has 139 active cases and can expect to need 7 ICU beds in the next 10-14 days (three more than available).
•  Taylor: No ICU bed capacity. There are 0 ICU beds but 2 ventilators. Taylor has 42 active cases and can expect to need 2 ICU beds in the next 10-14 days (two more than available).
• 72.19% of all hospital beds are in use in the County, with 13 ICU beds available, 49 ventilators available, and 188 total beds available

 

If you were triggered by my bitching that other counties are going to fuck us over because they refused to get as strict as we did as fast as we did, fuck you.

But hey, at least Round Rock is distributing "virtual flyers" to ask businesses to require masks!

https://www.roundrocktexas.gov/news/round-here-we-rock-a-mask/

[atomheartbevo 89789]

Best comment:  "Please show this report to the Williamson County Leaders that said that masks are not required. I believe that was from a few days ago."

Wait, no, here's the best comment:

Nanette Giaco: Why are people still acting like it is over.

Terry Cook, Williamson County Commissioner Pct 1:  I have many thoughts on that...

[atomheartbevo 89789]

Denise Burk Credeur:  What stage is Williamson county sitting at? 

Terry Cook Williamson County Commissioner Pct 1:  Austin/Travis and Houston/Harris have created "stages" for their communities. Wilco has not done that.

Terry Cook Williamson County Commissioner Pct 1: Here's the response from our Health District: WCCHD has our own triggers for staffing surge and response, but not a unified county "Stages" guideline. In a broad sense for re-opening, WCCHD is following the White House Guidelines: https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

[atomheartbevo 89789]

Thankfully, Williamson County only has half-a-million people or so.  I'm sure they won't need those 13 empty ICU beds.

[justhookit 4191]

I mean I hear you, but there are a ton of counties doing really poorly right now. But we can probably all agree that Wilco sucks.

[atomheartbevo 89789]

2 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I mean I hear you, but there are a ton of counties doing really poorly right now. But we can probably all agree that Wilco sucks.

Their county leaders hopefully aren't still doing this - this is the Williamson County Judge earlier in the week, when the numbers were rising:

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/williamson-county-wont-mandate-face-masks

Quote

“Face coverings in our more populated areas in Williamson County seem to make sense, but in some of more rural areas, it just seems to make no sense, whatsoever,” said Gravell.

Gravell says he’s an advocate for face coverings, but will stop short of mandating it like Austin-Travis County and Hays County. Instead, WilCo will leave it up to its residents and business owners to use “common sense” when masking up.

Quote

“You can’t legislate common sense,” said Gravell. “And, I think if there are area businesses that are concerned because people aren’t wearing masks, they also have the right to refuse customer service, as well. I remember as a kid growing up, where you would see the signs that say no shoes, no shirt, no service. And, if that’s a decision an area business wants to make, they can certainly do that.”

Yeah, Wilco sucks more than most.  

[gmr548 16614]

I get it. I totally do. Not everyone lives in Bexar, Travis, Harris, and Dallas counties, though. Doesn’t mean we’re not doing our part. Doesn’t mean we’re not ready. Doesn’t mean we haven’t been ready for 3 months now. But still...just sayin. No saturation here. Yet. Maybe. 

You know where most of the hospital beds live?

[LABEVO 928]

 

[MissingInAction 25182]

3 hours ago, elfenix said:

herd immunity is dependent upon Rnaught.  the lower the Rnaught, the lower the herd immunity %.   so if Rnaught is 2, herd immunity is 50%.  if 5, 80%.  if measles and >10,  then it's >90%

You lost me at p.

[BrazilHorn 6633]

Updated the chart. Hospitalizations by age still only through 6/14 on TCAD site. But you can see a couple of things:

1) 50-59 now jumped over 10% of deaths

2) Cases by age jumped up across the board. Not seeing it really hitting in one place

3) still killing a shit ton of >60 YO (84.62% of deaths (was 85.3 or so a couple of days ago.) vs 12.46% of cases

[Radical Larry 28662]

 

Thanks for the heads up, governor. I know you tried your best to prevent this. It’s all in god’s hands now.

[atomheartbevo 89789]

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200627/adler-austin-has-nationrsquos-highest-7-day-metro-positivity-rate-of-coronavirus-tests

Quote

Austin health officials last week saw the highest rate of positive coronavirus tests of any metro area in the nation, Austin Mayor Steve Adler said in a statement Saturday.

Austin was listed in a group of metro areas across the United States that White House coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx categorized as “concerning,” Adler said in the statement.

“This week alone, our rate of infections grew exponentially,” he said. “If you venture out, know that you are multiples more likely to get infected today than just two weeks ago.”

Hancock testing center yesterday:

[Sawbonz 27587]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

And if you use that number yet again, it equals .0000003837 per 100,000. So it’s pretty low. And that doesn’t even factor in the analysis where you again use that number and it equals .0000000003837 per 100,000. 

Sarcasm aside: that stat you cited is deaths per total population, not infected. Unlike case fatality rate, which should remain relatively constant, the overall fatality rate increases as the disease spreads. In New York for example, where coronavirus was fairly widespread, the overall fatality rate is 1.6 per 1,000 (or 160 per 100,000). 

Where did you find the estimate for overall infected in NYC? I can only find total positive tests. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13523]

9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200627/adler-austin-has-nationrsquos-highest-7-day-metro-positivity-rate-of-coronavirus-tests

Hancock testing center yesterday:

Look we can drive right up to the testing tent. This will go fast...  oh.

[BrickHorn 18285]

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Where did you find the estimate for overall infected in NYC? I can only find total positive tests. 

I didn’t. I found stats on COVID deaths per million residents, which is on worldometer.

[Sawbonz 27587]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I didn’t. I found stats on COVID deaths per million residents, which is on worldometer.

Got it I misread your post  

 

[atomheartbevo 89789]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Look we can drive right up to the testing tent. This will go fast...  oh.

It eventually backed up into the HEB parking lot.

[atomheartbevo 89789]

NSFW

Spoiler

 

long-cat

Spoiler

 

Now that's some leadership!

[Bartles 769]

All good. Most of those pics are outdoors, and that's the only reason I am defending her. Nothing else at all.

[elfenix 34332]

Is there a decent way to search this forum? I explained a bunch of this shit awhile back. Basically, herd immunity will not be 80% as initially predicted but will be much lower due to proper precautions and the shutdowns.

The site I keep flogging does a good job of explaining it. 

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

 

What you're talking about is crushing the effective reproduction number. And if you do that and you can get through to a vaccine you can get to herd immunity without so many people getting the disease. But The activities you take to crush the effective reproduction number don't change the herd immunity number because that's based on the naught reproduction number.

 

 

[safe sex 11747]

5 hours ago, Bartles said:

Quoting to get this on the new page. How would this food delivery work, for any hospital? Is there enough food storage so you don't get bombarded all at once?

Either the restaurant/private cook coordinates with a manager on the phone for a rough time to drop off the foods, and, if the food is for a specific unit, a nurse or two from that unit will come down when it is delivered to bring it on up. There has never been a food storage problem. It all gets eaten pretty damn quick, and we've never had more than one delivery in a shift. Just something to think about it y'all want to do something to help beyond wearing masks/social distancing/etc.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Dang I wonder what her condition is that requires a dog

[Judge Roybeanbag 11820]

5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Dang I wonder what her condition is that requires a dog

Her ass looks like crunchy peanut butter.

[Anastasis 23485]

Mask wearing report from WF Bee Caves, 100% except for one late 20s early 30s dipshit walking around the store on his cell phone. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19221]

HEB in The Woodlands probably about 70% masks.  Those without were spread across all demographics.  Also saw a few couples where one’s sporting the mask while the other wasn’t .  That always confuses the hell out of me.

A couple of weeks ago it was probably closer to 50 / 50 with the highest percentage not masked being around 20’s and 30’s.

[scottsins 1969]

The usual line at my daily 7-11 stop in Belton on Friday. No masks and the concept of “6 feet” seems really difficult for them.

[Sawbonz 27587]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

“You can’t legislate common sense,” said Gravell.

I never understood this line. Of course you can’t legislate common sense. That’s why you have to legislate a whole bunch of other shit

[Anastasis 23485]

35 minutes ago, scottsins said:

The usual line at my daily 7-11 stop in Belton on Friday. No masks and the concept of “6 feet” seems really difficult for them.

I went to a little market out here and this dumb bitch in her 20s just couldn’t help from standing right up on my ass. She was wearing a mask but I told her to give me some room. Some people are just completely oblivious to those around them. A failure of parenting, imo. 

[GRHorn 105]

I hadn’t seen this twitter account linked here before. 

 

[Shut up Lou Holtz 2046]

2 hours ago, LABEVO said:

 

So what are his next steps? Are there more closings coming beyond bars?

[Hefeweizen 5332]

He's planning to roll out some new ideas, but seems paralyzed by the current situation.  He can't seem to see the forest for the tree limbs.

[elfenix 34332]

Quote

I will always say we have to practice personal responsibility. But when I’m out in #Austin and I’m patronizing a business, I’ll have a mask on.

the use of the word 'but' lets you know that she thinks wearing a mask is not part of personal responsibility.

[elfenix 34332]

51 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

HEB in The Woodlands probably about 70% masks.  Those without were spread across all demographics.  Also saw a few couples where one’s sporting the mask while the other wasn’t .  That always confuses the hell out of me.

A couple of weeks ago it was probably closer to 50 / 50 with the highest percentage not masked being around 20’s and 30’s.

is woodlands HEB giving out masks at the door?  CM in houston was last week, and my regular HEB was today, but that's in harris county

[Bevo 13600]

2 hours ago, elfenix said:

 

The site I keep flogging does a good job of explaining it. 

https://ncase.me/covid-19/

 

What you're talking about is crushing the effective reproduction number. And if you do that and you can get through to a vaccine you can get to herd immunity without so many people getting the disease. But The activities you take to crush the effective reproduction number don't change the herd immunity number because that's based on the naught reproduction number.

First, this is how the calculations work: https://plus.maths.org/content/maths-minute-r0-and-herd-immunity

Second: The CDC does a good job explaining it: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article

Here is an excerpt from the CDC. Hope this helps.

Variations in R₀

For any given infectious agent, the scientific literature might present numerous different R₀ values. Estimations of the R₀ value are often calculated as a function of 3 primary parameters—the duration of contagiousness after a person becomes infected, the likelihood of infection per contact between a susceptible person and an infectious person or vector, and the contact rate—along with additional parameters that can be added to describe more complex cycles of transmission (19). Further, the epidemiologic triad (agent, host, and environmental factors) sometimes provides inspiration for adding parameters related to the availability of public health resources, the policy environment, various aspects of the built environment, and other factors that influence transmission dynamics and, thus, are relevant for the estimation of R₀ values (21). Yet, even if the infectiousness of a pathogen (that is, the likelihood of infection occurring after an effective contact event has occurred) and the duration of contagiousness are biological constants, R₀ will fluctuate if the rate of human–human or human–vector interactions varies over time or space. Limited evidence supports the applicability of R₀ outside the region where the value was calculated (20). Any factor having the potential to influence the contact rate, including population density (e.g., rural vs. urban), social organization (e.g., integrated vs. segregated), and seasonality (e.g., wet vs. rainy season for vectorborne infections), will ultimately affect R₀. Because R₀ is a function of the effective contact rate, the value of R₀ is a function of human social behavior and organization, as well as the innate biological characteristics of particular pathogens. More than 20 different R₀ values (range 5.4–18) were reported for measles in a variety of study areas and periods (22), and a review in 2017 identified feasible measles R₀ values of 3.7–203.3 (23). This wide range highlights the potential variability in the value of R₀ for an infectious disease event on the basis of local sociobehavioral and environmental circumstances.

 

From another source:

R0 for coronavirus SARS-CoV-2

A number of groups have estimated R0 for this new coronavirus. The Imperial College group has estimated R0 to be somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5. Most modeling simulations that project future cases are using R0s in that range.

These differences are not surprising; there’s uncertainty about many of the factors that go into estimating R0, such as in estimating the number of cases, especially early on in an outbreak.

Based on these current estimates, projections of the future number of cases of coronavirus are fraught with high levels of uncertainty and will likely be somewhat inaccurate.

The difficulties arise for a number of reasons.

First, the basic properties of this viral pathogen – like the infectious period – are as yet unknown.

Second, researchers don’t know how many mild cases or infections that don’t result in symptoms have been missed by surveillance but nevertheless are spreading the disease.

Third, the majority of people who come down with this new coronavirus do recover, and are likely then immune to coming down with it again. It’s unclear how the changing susceptibility of the population will affect the future spread of infection. As the virus moves into new regions and communities, it encounters people with varying health conditions that affect their susceptibility to disease, as well as different social structures, both of which affect its transmissibility.

Finally, and likely the most important reason, no one knows the future impacts of current disease control measures. Epidemiologists’ current estimates of R0 say nothing about how measures such as travel restrictions, social distancing and self-quarantine efforts will influence the virus’s continued spread.

[Anastasis 23485]

So far 7 pong fest positives. The big test push was Saturday so we won’t know full extent until late week. Coach carter shut down all the conditioning programs on Monday for two weeks. Was a good move.