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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

We saw a big spike amongst hispanics and whites.

So I suppose the connection you're trying to make is a valid one if you believe that black people didn't attend the Black Lives Matter rallies.

Austin is the whitest fucking cracker ass cracker major city in Texas. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Hate said:

Wait, a bunch of people that went to the protests were told to get tested, they got tested, and we saw a big spike? Am I reading that correctly?

The time frame for the spike is in line, but virtually impossible at this point to control for the other factors influencing the case load.

WRT the positivity, it is absolutely impacted by the guidance from APH on testing recommendations for those attending the protests, and the aftermath of depleting the testing capacity and restricting testing to symptomatic cases only.  

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The time frame for the spike is in line, but virtually impossible at this point to control for the other factors influencing the case load.

WRT the positivity, it is absolutely impacted by the guidance from APH on testing recommendations for those attending the protests, and the aftermath of depleting the testing capacity and restricting testing to symptomatic cases only.  

What does testing capacity even look like? Do the clinics/doctors get new test kits daily? Or is it something where if you blow your load in the three days after the protests, you're out of tests for a week or two? 

Never even considered how all that works. I'd think by now the increase in testing due to the "if you were at the protests, get tested" thing would be gone. But it could have put a big tent in our test supply in Austin.

What are the raw test counts looking like over the last week or two vs. immediately after the protests?

Edited by BradInATX
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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

We saw a big spike amongst hispanics and whites.

So I suppose the connection you're trying to make is a valid one if you believe that black people didn't attend the Black Lives Matter rallies.

I'm not trying to make a connection.  I'm trying to make sure I understood what was posted.  Also, here are a few images of the protests in Austin. 

5f7d05c1-042b-4e0f-b039-33757d1d81fe_192

 

7a2f842e545f4417b38a0bafbf7c40f3.jpg?w=2

Edit: I had 3 images, but one turned out was 2016.  It was a photo with people that had no masks.

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105139

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Hate said:


Wait, a bunch of people that went to the protests were told to get tested, they got tested, and we saw a big spike? Am I reading that correctly?

 

11 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

you are not.

Yep.

11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The time frame for the spike is in line, but virtually impossible at this point to control for the other factors influencing the case load.

WRT the positivity, it is absolutely impacted by the guidance from APH on testing recommendations for those attending the protests, and the aftermath of depleting the testing capacity and restricting testing to symptomatic cases only.  

This.  Anastasis' point is about the positivity rate.

After the protests, APH advised anyone who attended a protest to get tested, whether or not they had any symptoms.  A lot of people did (myself included).  Drawing from that pool, the positive rate/percentage was understandably LOW.  

Today, APH has changed the criteria for testing -- you only get a test if you are symptomatic.  Drawing from THAT pool (symptomatic people), the positive rate is understandably HIGHER.  That's the point he was making.

Sorry it doesn't dovetail with the preferred narrative of "the reason we're seeing more cases is primarily because of the protests," but it's pretty plain and simple.  And again, when you look a the demographics that are pushing the spike (see, e.g., working class hispanic and a lot of young folks (a shitload of the party crowd from San Marcos, for example)), that doesn't translate very well to the protest crowd.  I'm sure some people were infected at some of the protests, but it doesn't appear to be the driver of total cases, and certainly isn't a driver of the high positive rate.

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6569

Posted
Posted

Wait, a bunch of people that went to the protests were told to get tested, they got tested, and we saw a big spike? Am I reading that correctly?
No, but you want it to be so and that makes Jerry Garcia sad.
It means they shifted policy due to a lack of testing capacity and tests.
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crash_davis

crash_davis 23113

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6 minutes ago, Blotto said:

image.thumb.png.fe9b946fca319878ed66a6fb22539a59.png

 

That seems like a big jump in cases for Harris if the data isnt somehow fucked up.

 

Know how I know you haven't been to Houston since March. That place and especially the surrounding suburbs have not ever heard of Covid19 or what to do to prevent it from spreading.

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2223

Posted
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20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

What does testing capacity even look like? Do the clinics/doctors get new test kits daily? Or is it something where if you blow your load in the three days after the protests, you're out of tests for a week or two? 

Never even considered how all that works. I'd think by now the increase in testing due to the "if you were at the protests, get tested" thing would be gone. But it could have put a big tent in our test supply in Austin.

What are the raw test counts looking like over the last week or two vs. immediately after the protests?

One of the guests that stayed at our rental in Galveston the first weekend in June was active military and part of the testing program for the state.  He said the tests themselves weren't actually the issue they were seeing, but the supply chain around getting the test kits to the sites, personnel to do the actual test, and the samples to the lab and work up was the hold up.  He said he was currently sitting on 20+k at his office trying to get them out the door.  He also mentioned 6/8 of his crew that he worked closely with had already had it at that point, and only one had even had symptoms.  He was early thirties and in a LOT better shape than me, so I wasn't sure that actually translated to a positive for me.  

 

I am HIGHLY pissed at the Galveston beach closures by the way.  That shit just pisses me off.  I've been there multiple days ever week the past month.  No one is shoulder to shoulder.  

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Bill Brasky

Bill Brasky 1449

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

One of the guests that stayed at our rental in Galveston the first weekend in June was active military and part of the testing program for the state.  He said the tests themselves weren't actually the issue they were seeing, but the supply chain around getting the test kits to the sites, personnel to do the actual test, and the samples to the lab and work up was the hold up.  He said he was currently sitting on 20+k at his office trying to get them out the door.  He also mentioned 6/8 of his crew that he worked closely with had already had it at that point, and only one had even had symptoms.  He was early thirties and in a LOT better shape than me, so I wasn't sure that actually translated to a positive for me.  

 

I am HIGHLY pissed at the Galveston beach closures by the way.  That shit just pisses me off.  I've been there multiple days ever week the past month.  No one is shoulder to shoulder.  

nobody would get infected at the beach anyways, since it appears that protesters in close proximity are largely immune according to experts 

lol  

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Hate

Hate 20108

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

No, but you want it to be so and that makes Jerry Garcia sad.
It means they shifted policy due to a lack of testing capacity and tests.

Au contraire, I want it to be false.  I would like to believe that we can have football safely this fall.  If the protests prove not to have really spread it that much, I would think that it could be argued that outdoor events could be held with proper precautions. 

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Uncle Boobs

Uncle Boobs 1248

Posted
Posted
And this 7 day wait between testing and results is a huge problem...and likely leads many symptomatic folks to avoid testing altogether.

And this 7 day wait between testing and results is a huge problem . . . And likely leads many symptomatic folks to avoid testing.bde25dcc9e66ad0921ad71291c4e0a53.jpg

 

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justhookit

justhookit 4191

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We are wasting time arguing about whatever effect the protests had. I don’t mean here on this website but just in general. Meanwhile whatever the cause of it, we are spiking hard and THAT’s what needs to be addressed.

oh, Nueces county today where there were basically no protests? Went up 90 cases to 364. Hospitalizations from 105 to 170. ICU 33 to 58. Folks, these are some fucked up numbers and they likely reflect the beginning of this spike.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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Posted
5 minutes ago, justhookit said:

oh, Nueces county today where there were basically no protests? Went up 90 cases to 364. Hospitalizations from 105 to 170. ICU 33 to 58. Folks, these are some fucked up numbers and they likely reflect the beginning of this spike.

It all has to be viewed regionally.

In Austin, we were relatively good with mask wearing and distancing, at least relative to teh rest of the state. The impact of the mass gatherings will be relatively more impactful here compared to a place like Corpus that was more subdued. 

Out on the coast, you guys are dealing with massive influxes of people from ATX and SA and RGV regions. They come in, spread their germs, and leave. That results in a spike in your cases, but also the counties that they return to. 

Bottom line, most regions across the state appear to be getting deep dogged. Probably for uniquely different reasons, but the final analysis don't really care when you are having your small intestines pushed in. 

 

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justhookit

justhookit 4191

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I’m good with all that. Costa Rica is on the same spike we are and the same timeline we are for reopening. They still aren’t letting tourists in. At this point it just doesnt matter. People need to stop traveling. This weekend is going to fuck this state up royally.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89664

Posted
Posted
On 6/30/2020 at 12:57 PM, Wally Pryor said:

Yeah, our Y has its shit together.  

Yep, our's has been clean and all masks and proper distancing.  Even in the pool area, the off-duty lifeguard has been walking around disinfecting everything about every half hour or so.  And the chlorine has been cranked.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89664

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8 hours ago, Skipper said:

For those that didn't follow, the Dallas salon operator that called every reporter in town to let them know in advance she was going to open her salon in defiance of the shut down order, had her gofundme set up days in advance as well, then pocketed over half a million from a bunch of idiots.

Wood.  Gotta respect her game for pulling in half-a-million or more from idiots.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89664

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, justhookit said:

oh, Nueces county today where there were basically no protests? Went up 90 cases to 364. Hospitalizations from 105 to 170. ICU 33 to 58. Folks, these are some fucked up numbers and they likely reflect the beginning of this spike.

Williamson County is running out of ICU beds.  They seem like a hotbed of protests.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89664

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

There are too many unknowns and variables to say definitively one way or another that protests did or did not increase the spread of the virus. The fact that once again people are trying to score political points off this shows you everything that is wrong with political discourse in this country.

For example, the cities that were hit with large protests could have seen a decrease in spread because many non-protestors chose to stay in. Or, if majority of protestors trended young, perhaps those that were infected had minor symptoms and never got a test. Adding further to this, young people are also more likely to do riskier activities like go to a bar. So how could you ever clearly establish a person was infected at a protest or at a bar with friends the following da

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/26/this-chart-shows-the-link-between-restaurant-spending-and-new-coronavirus-cases.html

Quote

JPMorgan analyzed data from 30 million Chase cardholders and Johns Hopkins University’s case tracker and found that higher restaurant spending in a state predicted a rise in new infections there three weeks later.

In-person restaurant spending was “particularly predictive.”

Conversely, higher spending at supermarkets predicted a slower spread of the virus.

Ultimately, it comes down to:  States that began opening everything up were going to see a spike, regardless of protests, restaurant capacities, etc., particularly when mask requirements began dropping in areas.

And now that we are getting phone comes from APH, I'm expecting things to be shutdown on Friday.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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bolverk

bolverk 29672

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Austin is less cracker white than Portland, Seattle, Denver and Minneapolis. Lol. 

Yes. And several other cities listed above, including a few in the South. In fact, it's a minority majority city. But I can see how living out in western Travis County might lead one to think otherwise.

To my point, this response was to Brad's comment stating that only the Great Plains and Utah are more cracker than Austin.

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, bolverk said:

That's not remotely true.

Screenshot-20200701-200303-Chrome.jpg

Screenshot-20200701-201227-Chrome.jpg

What is true is that Austin has a tiny black population relative to cities of comparable size, the black population is shrinking - not just as a percentage, but in raw numbers - and it is very, very racially segregated. I wasn't there but it is overwhelmingly likely that black people were in fact a very small fraction of those protesting in Austin.

If you're a white professional in Austin odds are the city does feel very white on a daily basis - it's not, because of the large hispanic population you pointed out, but because of segregation it can feel that way.

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bolverk

bolverk 29672

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

What is true is that Austin has a tiny black population relative to cities of comparable size, the black population is shrinking - not just as a percentage, but in raw numbers - and it is very, very racially segregated. I wasn't there but it is overwhelmingly likely that black people were in fact a very small fraction of those protesting in Austin.

If you're a white professional in Austin odds are the city does feel very white on a daily basis - it's not, because of the large hispanic population you pointed out, but because of segregation it can feel that way.

You'll get no argument from me on that. Gentrification is a bitch and has driven the Black community out of the central city and into the suburbs. I'm well aware of the study (and the news surrounding it) that you're citing.

If I recall correctly though, in the most recent years, the estimates have shown the out-migration of African Americans has improved *slightly*. Unfortunately, we'll have to wait a couple of years for the Census count results to see the real changes though.

/end thread derail

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23469

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Posted
11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

But I can see how living out in western Travis County might lead one to think otherwise.

My little western travis country enclave is far more ethnically diverse than my former central austin enclave was.  Less socioeconomically diverse, but far more ethnically diverse. 

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gmr548

gmr548 16580

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Posted
1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

My little western travis country enclave is far more ethnically diverse than my former central austin enclave was.  Less socioeconomically diverse, but far more ethnically diverse. 

I actually buy that. Central Austin, once you get away from UT, is white as hell.

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

 

We saw a big spike amongst hispanics and whites.

So I suppose the connection you're trying to make is a valid one if you believe that black people didn't attend the Black Lives Matter rallies.

I’m pretty sure the six black people that live in Austin were at the rally.

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