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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
in Daily Texan

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,346

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, JBJ said:

Sure.

The important model assumptions are (these were built around the US data) (1) results get posted an average of about 11 days after exposure (this is a distribution - 3sig is 5-17 days) (2) there's roughly 10x the exposures as cases reported.

----

I've created 4 windows for when people were exposed:

Phase 2 transition: May 18-May 27

Phase 2 without protest: May 27- June 5

Protest: June 5 - June 15

Post-protest /pre-knowledge of surge: June 15 forward

----

Method:

1) Use the model to get the transmissivity for each window.  Compare overall transmissivity, 

2) Make sure the overall is what is in the daily numbers as well. Transmissivity should clearly jump from one rate to another in the definable periods despite daily noise.

3) Increases in transmissivity associated with the protest period that don't exist in the post-protest period are likely due the protests themselves.

4) Disclaimer: Data isn't complete yet for post-protest period, but because jumps do show up per #2, I'm pretty confident in this.

Ptoetests started en masse on May 27 

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gmr548

gmr548 16,580

Posted
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Aggy and Jimbo are on 6-months probation for recruiting violations.  4-4 SEC with recruiting violations, LOL.
So, there is at least some good news today, regardless of the covid spike.
Aggy will be undefeated in the secsecsec this year. Winless, but also undefeated.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,660

Posted
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Just now, gmr548 said:
8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:
Vanilla Ice is being put on ice for now.
 

I don't know why, it's not like there's gonna be a big crowd.

All the 80s/90s types are making lots of bucks on the concert circuit.  There's a concert series in Oklahoma that's dedicated to has-beens (Rocklahoma sp?).  

And I have a feeling that the fans he has left in 2020 probably don't care about wearing masks or social distancing.

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SHOOTER12

SHOOTER12 8,808

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, Lobo said:

Seriously, where in the fuck are we supposed to get a reliable test in Central Texas that doesn't require a week wait time?  I do not fucking get this at all.  

All I ever fucking hear is how we can get a test anytime with little to no lag time.  My wife sits on a hospital board.  One of my closest friends is the head of Ascension-Seton.  Even with those relationships, nobody can tell me with a straight face how to get a test that isn't a week out with a 50/50 chance of working.  What in the fucking fuck?  

NextCare in Cedar Park

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Errestaurants

Errestaurants 2,570

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38 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

In my little red neck part of East Texas I was able to get a rapid test done yesterday within 10 mins of calling and got the results back 17 mins after they scratched the underside of my brain.  Negative

 

I found out I had been exposed (for a short time and outside) to a COVID positive person a few days before.    

Mabank or GBC?

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3,440

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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, Errestaurants said:

I found out I had been exposed (for a short time and outside) to a COVID positive person a few days before. 

And you still realistically have about 5 more days to potentially come down with the infection/symptoms. The median exposure to detectable infection time is about 5 days. Very few develop in less than three days. Vast majority by day 10.

Edited by Newdoc
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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105,131

Posted
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Just now, kevwun said:

You don't have to wear a mask while voting or at church.  That makes a lot of sense.

That's weird, because I just voted this morning and there were multiple signs at the door requiring a mask to enter.  Local rules already had it in place, don't know why the distinction....that said, I can get the balance of "don't deny me my right to vote just because I don't have a mask."

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

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Posted
5 minutes ago, kevwun said:

You already have to have ID.  What's the big deal?

Yeah, you have to register weeks in advance, it takes weeks (and not an insignificant amount of cash) to obtain one of the six acceptable forms of identification.  But a 99 cent mask?  Fuck no, muh freedoms!  

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Captainant

Captainant 27,664

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, justhookit said:

Statewide mask order. Finally.

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200702/abbott-issues-statewide-mask-order-as-coronavirus-cases-hospitalizations-rise

 

Not like his direct action countermanded Houston's mask order two months ago or anything, right?

Better late than never doesn't work so well when you're in the grips of a fucking pandemic

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JBJ

JBJ 3,654

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Ptoetests started en masse on May 27 

May 29 were the initial riot-ish protests in Texas (Dallas and Houston).  I think Dallas estimated 1,000 people that day but they were spread out between Deep Ellum, the Goverment district, and Uptown.  Austin had "dozens" at APD/City Hall.

The following weekend were the more organized, massive, peaceful protests.  The majority of photos come from June 6th and 7th and they dwindle out from there.  Of course, there was June 3rd in Houston also.

Edited by JBJ
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dcbc

dcbc 14,482

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Next up, more videos of lunatics refusing to wear masks because of rights and stuff. 

We had that before the order.  With the order, it's going to be like those road rage compilations on youtube. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14,182

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, achooloco said:

Mask wearing? The virus Overall I can see your point but mask wearing? What exactly do you mean?

everyone pulling percentage estimates of mask wearing out of their ass.  no one knows the fucking percentages of mask wearers. its message board hyperventilating.

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justhookit

justhookit 4,191

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Posted
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Is this the kind of no-politics thread where we can talk about how the Governor contributed to this fiasco? @Onboard 2.0 doesn’t live in Texas so maybe his feelings won’t be hurt.

Yes. We’ve discussed it here plenty. As long as it’s not some one sentence drive by like FUCK ABBOTT and all Republicans need to die in a fire. State policy is good as long as you want to actually discuss something of substance.

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justhookit

justhookit 4,191

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Nueces County dropped to 262 today, still the 3rd highest total we’ve had. We are also out of the county tests so not sure it means anything. Hospitalizations and ICU were not nearly up as much as yesterday so I’m trying to figure out what caused that. Maybe a blip.

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SaucyJack

SaucyJack 3,488

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35 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Nueces County dropped to 262 today, still the 3rd highest total we’ve had. We are also out of the county tests so not sure it means anything. Hospitalizations and ICU were not nearly up as much as yesterday so I’m trying to figure out what caused that. Maybe a blip.

BTW, we are still in the first wave.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,660

Posted
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Here's what's popping off this weekend - most cities canceled their big events.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/4th-of-july-in-central-texas-whats-still-on-and-what-is-canceled/

Quote

The Round Rock Frontier Days and Spirit Parades, along with the Rock’N River pool party, have been cancelled by the City of Round Rock. At Dell Diamond, however, a concert sponsored by KASE 101 featuring Granger Smith as the headliner, is still on. It’s slated to start 7 p.m. and fireworks will follow around 9:30 p.m. Round Rock Express personnel say the field will be divided into six-foot by six-foot areas for people to sit in and stay socially distant, and they’ll take other COVID-19 precautions, as well.

I am not surprised at all.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,660

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https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/austin-hospital-capacity-coronavirus/269-6f45af3b-c377-49ec-b185-df2acdc7226d

Quote

Austin-Travis County needs to change its behavior or hospitals will start to fill up even more, according to Dr. Spencer Fox. 

Fox is a research associate in the Integrative Biology Department at the University of Texas and the associate director of the UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium.

"We are a team of interdisciplinary experts in the field of epidemiology, economics, statistics, biology, various fields," said Fox. "And what we're doing right now is carrying out various modeling analysis to understand how to best respond to the pandemic."

Quote

"We are seeing a worrisome surge in hospitalizations cases," said Fox. 

Health officials are watching hospitalizations closely to determine if Austin-Travis County will move from Stage 4 to Stage 5, the highest level on Austin Public Health's risk-based guidelines. 

"What we're seeing right now is that surge has not started to slow," said Fox. "And so if behavior doesn't change, and we continue along this trajectory we're on, we're expecting that we will hit hospital capacity in the next month or two."

Quote

Fox said they also expect to see a rise in deaths in the coming weeks, according to their projections.

"Many states, we're still projecting downward trajectories," said Fox. "But Texas is one of them that we think mortality will start increasing based on what we're seeing in the data."

As of now, Fox said they're projecting Texas to hit nearly 4,000 deaths by the end of the month. 

 

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Leeroy Jenkins

Leeroy Jenkins 2,404

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4 hours ago, Mighty fine said:
6 hours ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:
GBC.  Lakeland Medical Associates.  My normal Dr's office.  

Have you heard any numbers/stats on how things are doing around the lake? Just learned that a former teacher of mine who lived over around Malakoff passed away due to complications from the virus

Did you go to Eustace?

I live full time here on the lake. Henderson County had 17 positive test today.  There were several tied to a local restaurant.  When I got tested yesterday I saw at least 6 others tested. My Dr Said he tested 35 yesterday with 4 positives. They are also undercounting here. I know one household that has 4 people with COVID but they only officially tested 1 and that is the official reported number. 

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dcbc

dcbc 14,482

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9 minutes ago, Leeroy Jenkins said:

Did you go to Eustace?

I live full time here on the lake. Henderson County had 17 positive test today.  There were several tied to a local restaurant.  When I got tested yesterday I saw at least 6 others tested. My Dr Said he tested 35 yesterday with 4 positives. They are also undercounting here. I know one household that has 4 people with COVID but they only officially tested 1 and that is the official reported number. 

Know of three others in Henderson County, with only 1 in the household having tested positive. 

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