COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Hate 20,232]

34 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

Skip it all together...go to Dumas then 287 to Stratford, then to Boise City OK   then straight into Colorado

or perhaps you don't want to see the second biggest ball of twine

[Iceman 2,962]

yeah, the 45mph zone for 20 miles between Clayton and Raton used to be a beating.   Would never see a truck or a worker...LOLz.

[bolverk 30,257]

4 minutes ago, Iceman said:

yeah, the 45mph zone for 20 miles between Clayton and Raton used to be a beating.   Would never see a truck or a worker...LOLz.

They do have that one nice rest stop in the middle of nowhere though that my parents always insist on stopping at (Dad is 83 & mom is 79. I always pick them up in BS to take them to see my sister who lives in Denver for Thanksgiving).

[Pato del Muerto 53,367]

Friends drove from Dallas to Denver today through raton and no issues. Hell of a drive that must have been. 

[TwiceHorn 32,014]

Goddamn.  Dallas County over 1000 cases today.

[SimonBolivar 11,044]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

What if I like seeing the dormant volcanoes and enjoy driving over the pass? /jk

Regardless of Covid, is that direction faster, slower, or the same? Serious question as I make that drive once a year.

But seriously I'll only go this way because of that. Fuck Eastern Colorado.

[berlinerbaer 692]

For the first time ever, mask usage at HEB in Sugar Land was basically 100% when I went this afternoon.

I think people get it. Finally.

[mchookem 16,746]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

They do have that one nice rest stop in the middle of nowhere though that my parents always insist on stopping at (Dad is 83 & mom is 79. I always pick them up in BS to take them to see my sister who lives in Denver for Thanksgiving).

i love that rest stop, we always stop for a picnic. only rest stop i've seen with a livestock pen, so horses can stretch their legs!

[justhookit 4,205]

6 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Exactly.  how people cant see this is mind bottling.

Well yeah. We can ignore the numbers and science and data and shit, or we can stick our head up our collective ass and pretend it isn’t happening.  This thing hasn’t burned thru NYC yet, much less the entire NE yankee part of our country. That “burn” through there? It took an entire geographic region to literally stay at home in order to stop it.  It’s nothing close to what we did here in Texas back then, and we are more open now. How exactly do you think this is going to go? You going to wish covid away?

What is good to see is that it appears to be even less deadly now than it was in April and we’ve got a better idea of how to treat it.

[dcar00 14,909]

17 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Well yeah. We can ignore the numbers and science and data and shit, or we can stick our head up our collective ass and pretend it isn’t happening.  This thing hasn’t burned thru NYC yet, much less the entire NE yankee part of our country. That “burn” through there? It took an entire geographic region to literally stay at home in order to stop it.  It’s nothing close to what we did here in Texas back then, and we are more open now. How exactly do you think this is going to go? You going to wish covid away?

What is good to see is that it appears to be even less deadly now than it was in April and we’ve got a better idea of how to treat it.

thats it..its less deadly now. sure.

[justhookit 4,205]

6 hours ago, Post Oak said:

I hope that's the case but I can't imagine it is.  

What I guess we see is lower numbers across the state for the next 4 or 5 days because of the holiday. If we are trending flat by the end of next week it’s a great thing. The benefits of  Mask usage should kick in about that time or a few days later. And the bar shutdown should show up around the same timeframe only a few days before.

id love to see a downward trend here but we haven’t ever really seen that. We need to start seeing it in about 2-3 weeks.

[justhookit 4,205]

5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

thats it..its less deadly now. sure.

You realize the part you couldn’t bottle your mind around is case numbers, not deaths, right?

[justhookit 4,205]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

thats it..its less deadly now. sure.

This is actually a good read as far as the trends. I do not agree with his conclusion, mostly because it seems to be based on the assumption that we do nothing to change our behaviors. We’ve done a lot over the last week. He also doesn’t even attempt to mention the lag time with deaths. We aren’t going to be NYC. But we are going to have a rough go of it during July at least.

 

Edited July 4, 2020 by justhookit

[Pancho 46,095]

6 hours ago, berlinerbaer said:

For the first time ever, mask usage at HEB in Sugar Land was basically 100% when I went this afternoon.

I think people get it. Finally.

I’m pretty sure HEB came out and said all stores were now requiring a mask to get in

[elfenix 34,666]

Starr county airlifting people out:

CNN.com: 2 Texas counties urge residents to shelter in place as hospitals reach
capacity.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/us/texas-hospitals-coronavirus/index.html

[Guest]

49 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I’m pretty sure HEB came out and said all stores were now requiring a mask to get in

Yes they did. Customers, employees. 

[Skipper 6,407]

Just checked out the Dallas Friday release of hospitalization data.  The Hospitalization jump is pretty unreal.  Over the past 4 weeks admits have gone from 173, to 227, to 268 to 355 (for the week ending 6/27).  I can't imagine things will be any better once we get data next Friday for week ending today.   The only good news is so far we haven't seen a similar jump in ICU admissions.  Let's hope that trend continues.   I think that is the number to focus on over the next couple of weeks.

 

 https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/COVID-19 DCHHS Summary_070320.pdf

 

 

[Pato del Muerto 53,367]

The two biggest questions with this are 1) is immunity permanent or at least long lasting enough for herd immunity to be achieved and choke this thing out, and 2) is it stable enough for a vaccine to work.

if the answer is no to those, then we will just have to live with it because we can’t throttle down enough for long enough to starve it out. 
 

I just wish I’d see less Facebook posts about personal responsibility and more about looking out for those around you. 

[hornian 5,281]

14 hours ago, AngryDragon said:

I'd just go through NM unless things get completely out of hand here. My friend took his family from Houston to Durango 2 days ago with no issues. I'm assuming your time in NM will be even shorter if you're just trying to cut across the corner through Raton on the way to 25. You can just drive straight through without having to stop in New Mexico. 

I’m also in Durango. Heading back tomorrow. Still planning to drive through NM. 

[mchookem 16,746]

55 minutes ago, hornian said:

I’m also in Durango. Heading back tomorrow. Still planning to drive through NM. 

please report if any obstacles, road stops, etc?

[SHOOTER12 8,883]

Dumbass, trashy, no brained, inconsiderate, fucking pieces of shit report from Nacogdoches Texas

Mandatory wearing of masks in effect. How much difference did it make here?

 NOT ONE DAMNED BIT!

It's as bad at Walmart if not worse than it was last weekend.  Fucking idiots.

[Post Oak 20,551]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

The two biggest questions with this are 1) is immunity permanent or at least long lasting enough for herd immunity to be achieved and choke this thing out, and 2) is it stable enough for a vaccine to work.

if the answer is no to those, then we will just have to live with it because we can’t throttle down enough for long enough to starve it out. 
 

I just wish I’d see less Facebook posts about personal responsibility and more about looking out for those around you. 

I'd like to know this too. But I bet there are no good answers yet.

[Bert Orange 1,168]

3 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Dumbass, trashy, no brained, inconsiderate, fucking pieces of shit report from Nacogdoches Texas

Mandatory wearing of masks in effect. How much difference did it make here?

 NOT ONE DAMNED BIT!

It's as bad at Walmart if not worse than it was last weekend.  Fucking idiots.

Can’t be worse than Livingston. 

[SHOOTER12 8,883]

2 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Can’t be worse than Livingston. 

Damn, I hate to hear that. I've got a full beard and hate wearing a mask but by God I'm going to wear one.

[Surly Bevo 25,664]

As an aside seeing some of the positive rates reporting in 20-30% in a lot f places (which is clearly not good) coupled with the raw cases numbers coming in makes me think "goddamn that means 70-80% of folks are sick enough to go somewhere to get a COVID test on their own or have a doctor order one and they don't even have it.....I don't think I have ever been that sick in the middle summer in my life to go visit a doctor".    I mean allergies here and there etc but nothing that would ever get me to go to a doc.  Now I am sure there are some folks being more cautious and seeking out care for things they normally might not but damn we got a lot of sick motherfuckers out there.  

Edited July 4, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Guest]

32 minutes ago, mchookem said:

please report if any obstacles, road stops, etc?

Their websites are not  much help.  Confusing to say the least..

NewMexico.org

• Effective July 1, New Mexico is enforcing mandatory self-quarantine for all out-of-state travelers to New Mexico, whether by air or vehicle. The mandatory self-quarantine is to last 14 days or the length of stay in New Mexico, whichever is shorter. The June 1 exemptions to the travel quarantine are still in effect, which can be reviewed below.
• On June 1 the public health order was amended to provide the following exemptions to the 14-day self-quarantine requirement:
  • airline employees on travel for work
  • individuals performing public safety or public health functions
  • emergency first responders
  • health care workers
  • military personnel
  • individuals employed by a federal agency or a national defense contractor
  • individuals arriving to New Mexico pursuant to a court order
  • individuals traveling to New Mexico to conduct business activities
  •  
  •  
  • further down the page:  

    Safe Travel Recommendations

    Outside of the modified 14-day self-quarantine requirement on certain travel to New Mexico (see above), there are currently no domestic travel restrictions to the state of New Mexico.

  •  
•  

[Pato del Muerto 53,367]

So you can drive through, but if you stop and stay you start your quarantine clock. 

[atomheartbevo 90,571]

This guy was mentioned in the other thread - I think he's way alarmist about some things, but he nailed the part about how we need to stop thinking in terms of this being one big pandemic outbreak for the entire country, and instead need to look at it from the state level.

 

[atomheartbevo 90,571]

What the fuck is going on in Alpine?

And while I think he's a little too much ball gamey, we do have the hospitals starting to overflow and send patients out-of-county, at least here in Texas.

 

[Dbeasy 15,533]

please report if any obstacles, road stops, etc?

Just went thru there and snapped a pic for everyone here.

[bschoolprof 6,340]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

What the fuck is going on in Alpine?

And while I think he's a little too much ball gamey, we do have the hospitals starting to overflow and send patients out-of-county, at least here in Texas.

 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict we are not gonna have "hundreds of thousands" of covid deaths over the next eight weeks.  Good grief.   

[atomheartbevo 90,571]

2 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict we are not gonna have "hundreds of thousands" of covid deaths over the next eight weeks.  Good grief.   

Yeah, we've only had 125,000 or so deaths so far, we will hit 200,000 this fall, I'm sure, but not much more than that.  A bit greenspointish.

 

[Newdoc 3,508]

15 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict we are not gonna have "hundreds of thousands" of covid deaths over the next eight weeks.  Good grief.   

Miles Beckett is a doctor turned administrator and entrepreneur. I’ll look for my histrionics from actual qualified physicians and epidemiologist well versed in infectious disease and public health.

[justhookit 4,205]

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, we've only had 125,000 or so deaths so far, we will hit 200,000 this fall, I'm sure, but not much more than that.  A bit greenspointish.

 

Ha, yeah. He goes way Greenspoint at the end but the rest of that tweet thread is pretty well thought out and follows a lot of what I’ve been seeing and thinking.

[atomheartbevo 90,571]

4 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Ha, yeah. He goes way Greenspoint at the end but the rest of that tweet thread is pretty well thought out and follows a lot of what I’ve been seeing and thinking.

Makes sense - we have states that have a larger population than some European and Asian countries, and are far more spread out than many Asian and European countries.

[Message Board User 12,405]

Fucking crazy - local clinics are now quoting 10-14 days as the time it takes to get back the results of Covid 19 tests.

There's very little point in testing if that's accurate.

[Huckleberry 34,412]

Yep. You're done with isolation at that point. If testing is going to take up to 14 days for results then the message at that point has to be to isolate if you've been exposed, period.

[Guest Lobo]

six months since discovery, four months since lockdown and it now takes the average human body less time to defeat a novel virus than it does to put a cotton swab under a microscope? Tremendous progress.  Nobody's fault, just depressing to think about.  

Any news on how antibody tests are progressing?  

[After irth 1,245]

2 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Damn, I hate to hear that. I've got a full beard and hate wearing a mask but by God I'm going to wear one.

I guess I'm sandwiched in between you guys in Lufkin.  Kinky.

For the record, people also suck here, too.

[justhookit 4,205]

15 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Yep. You're done with isolation at that point. If testing is going to take up to 14 days for results then the message at that point has to be to isolate if you've been exposed, period.

[Message Board User 12,405]

Yep that 10-14 day lag time is going to greatly discourage asymptomatic folks from getting tested.

How many of us can afford to take 2 weeks off?  And if you do test positive initially, to return to work you’d have to wait another 2 weeks to (hopefully) test negative?

[Huckleberry 34,412]

Well I isolated for 11 days (until 14 days after exposure) when I learned that I had been in contact with someone who tested positive. But my company was allowing me to work from home so that situation doesn't apply to the vast majority of people, as you imply. If testing is going to take 10-14 days then having people get tested to determine their next step is pointless.

[Telegraph_it 3,377]

My friend who works as a PA at the medical center says it has taken some people ~7 weeks to start testing negative.  This seems believable based on my own personal experience. It took my Grandad over a month to test negative.

Testing only does so much because the transmission rate for people who never show symptoms (asymptomatic) is very low. But people who are positive and “pre-symptomatic” have a very high transmission rate. 

It’s impossible to know the difference in the early stages and testing won’t catch it. Especially if tests take a week plus to supply results. 
 

This virus is a bitch. 

[dcbc 14,644]

Dumbass, trashy, no brained, inconsiderate, fucking pieces of shit report from Nacogdoches Texas

Mandatory wearing of masks in effect. How much difference did it make here?

 NOT ONE DAMNED BIT!

It's as bad at Walmart if not worse than it was last weekend.  Fucking idiots.

Tyler Walmart Grocery report (1 p.m. today): 98% masked up. Saw 2 barefaced regards as I was leaving curbside, but was otherwise pleasantly surprised.

 

[Pato del Muerto 53,367]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

Ha, yeah. He goes way Greenspoint at the end but the rest of that tweet thread is pretty well thought out and follows a lot of what I’ve been seeing and thinking.

He needed to qualify that big statement like “dozens of nycs...all on a much smaller scale.”  

[CooterBrown 18,273]

My mom got tested on Tuesday and was told 5-7 days for results but it came back Thursday...negative.

[Newdoc 3,508]

We are seeing so much of this in the clinic now that it’s almost to the point where you just make a clinical diagnosis and go with it. There’s really not much else going around except for an infrequent stomach bug, a few case of strep and the occasional flu.

[Wulaw Horn 19,563]

I’m in Gettysburg PA (rural as fuck) and mask rate at Walmart and all around town is 90%+ I’d say.  A lot different than Montgomery county Texas for sure. At least when I left. 

[staboner 5,068]

6 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict we are not gonna have "hundreds of thousands" of covid deaths over the next eight weeks.  Good grief.   

[staboner 5,068]

my hair could use a good mussing IMO