COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Armybrat 40,940]

4 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Next to nurses, no one martyrs themselves on social media like teachers.

A lot of parents have certainly learned a bit about teaching.... and they are dealing with their own kids.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,229]

21 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I detect a hint of sarcasm in this tweet.  But I have been drankin’ since noon so maybe my perception is off a bit.

[justhookit 4,191]

54 minutes ago, bolverk said:

What jumps out me from this table is looking at the deaths per cases or population and seeing how extraordinarily low that rate is in Texas compared to everyone else. What's going on there?

1. Is it that Texans are that more hardy?
2. Is the quality of our healthcare that much better?
3. Has the virus become less lethal?
4. Is it because it didn't really become widespread in the early months like most of those comparisons (East Asians were never swamped) and therefore doctors have learned to treat it better?
5. Is it because the segments of our population that have been most infected (i.e. younger) are less at risk?

I'm guessing that 4 & 5 are the most likely answers but am certainly willing to entertain the notion that 3 is also a possibility. I guess we'll begin to get some more indication as it starts to spread into more at-risk groups like our nursing homes.

 

It’s mostly because the deaths from our spike are just now starting to hit. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19,229]

14 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Next to nurses, no one martyrs themselves on social media like teachers.

Our soldier boys and girls laugh at you.

[bolverk 29,738]

6 minutes ago, justhookit said:

It’s mostly because the deaths from our spike are just now starting to hit. 

I understand that our deaths are rising, but the low rate at which they've occurred so far for the number of cases we've had is what's puzzling. You might well be right and are referring to the fact that deaths are a lagging indicator and our case load is so fresh. If so, that's not something I had not considered in my post of wild hypothesizing.

Edited July 18, 2020 by bolverk
had NOT considered

[Fudge Nuggets 19,229]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

I understand that our deaths are rising, but the low rate at which they've occurred so far for the number of cases we've had is what's puzzling. You might well be right and are referring to the fact that deaths are a lagging indicator and our case load is so fresh. If so, that's not something I had considered in my post of wild hypothesizing.

Also, the longer this goes on we should get better at treating it based on lessons learned if nothing else.

[bolverk 29,738]

3 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Also, the longer this goes on we should get better at treating it based on lessons learned if nothing else.

 

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

What jumps out me from this table is looking at the deaths per cases or population and seeing how extraordinarily low that rate is in Texas compared to everyone else. What's going on there?

1. Is it that Texans are that more hardy?
2. Is the quality of our healthcare that much better?
3. Has the virus become less lethal?
4. Is it because it didn't really become widespread in the early months like most of those comparisons (East Asians were never swamped) and therefore doctors have learned to treat it better?
5. Is it because the segments of our population that have been most infected (i.e. younger) are less at risk?

I'm guessing that 4 & 5 are the most likely answers but am certainly willing to entertain the notion that 3 is also a possibility. I guess we'll begin to get some more indication as it starts to spread into more at-risk groups like our nursing homes.

 

Hey, Mr. Day Drinkerman.

(I'm jealous.)

[MissingInAction 25,217]

Lots of empty apartments at my complex this month. Are evictions being processed in Austin now?

[bolverk 29,738]

4 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Lots of empty apartments at my complex this month. Are evictions being processed in Austin now?

Those $600/week checks are coming to an end so people might be readjusting their living situation accordingly. I read somewhere that something like a third of American households didn't pay rent or their mortgages at the beginning of this month. Dunno when evictions are allowed to start kicking back in, but I imagine it's very soon.

We're going to start being in a world of economic hurt next month.

[Guest]

12 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Lots of empty apartments at my complex this month. Are evictions being processed in Austin now?

The tenants died from Covid.  Don't you listen to the news?

Edited July 18, 2020 by slorch

[UTGrad98 2,282]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

What jumps out me from this table is looking at the deaths per cases or population and seeing how extraordinarily low that rate is in Texas compared to everyone else. What's going on there?

1. Is it that Texans are that more hardy?
2. Is the quality of our healthcare that much better?
3. Has the virus become less lethal?
4. Is it because it didn't really become widespread in the early months like most of those comparisons (East Asians were never swamped) and therefore doctors have learned to treat it better?
5. Is it because the segments of our population that have been most infected (i.e. younger) are less at risk?

I'm guessing that 4 & 5 are the most likely answers but am certainly willing to entertain the notion that 3 is also a possibility. I guess we'll begin to get some more indication as it starts to spread into more at-risk groups like our nursing homes.

 

Texas has always reported lower deaths in comparison to those infected.  My thoughts are it is lower because of what is reported as cause of death.  If you have covid and die of a heart attack or stroke you can either include covid or not. Texas has not been reporting deaths as covid related unless it has been direct. Some pages back it showed texas and Arizona as having under reported covid deaths by 40-50 percent. Look at total texas deaths at this time last year and total deaths so far this year. The discrepancy is eye popping. That and improved standard of care are your reasons for the low death rate.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,229]

20 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Hey, Mr. Day Drinkerman.

(I'm jealous.)

You can’t expect me to read past the second bullet point under these circumstances can you?  Type the important shit first; important defined as the stuff I agree with.

[GreenspointTexas 9,689]

5 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

Texas has always reported lower deaths in comparison to those infected.  My thoughts are it is lower because of what is reported as cause of death.  If you have covid and die of a heart attack or stroke you can either include covid or not. Texas has not been reporting deaths as covid related unless it has been direct. Some pages back it showed texas and Arizona as having under reported covid deaths by 40-50 percent. Look at total texas deaths at this time last year and total deaths so far this year. The discrepancy is eye popping. That and improved standard of care are your reasons for the low death rate.

Yup. Texas is a top 3 state for healthcare/treatment facilities and quality of care. Especially if you live in Houston or Dallas

[achooloco 1,086]

Fucking shit. My relative in the Austin medical community tested positive today. Day one of symptoms was yesterday and the test results came back today. Isolating at home now and luckily their spouse/kids have enough room to manage the next two weeks but the spouse had life threatening pneumonia a few years ago so they’re worried about that. These next two weeks can’t pass fast enough. 

[Bevo 13,605]

8 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Yup. Texas is a top 3 state for healthcare/treatment facilities and quality of care. Especially if you live in Houston or Dallas

I have heard that Methodist Hospital in Houston accepted a lot of COVID patients. Lots of nursing home patients have been there for extended periods of time because the nursing homes aren't taking them back. It is costing the hospital lots of money to basically act as a nursing home.

[bolverk 29,738]

12 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Fucking shit. My relative in the Austin medical community tested positive today. Day one of symptoms was yesterday and the test results came back today. Isolating at home now and luckily their spouse/kids have enough room to manage the next two weeks but the spouse had life threatening pneumonia a few years ago so they’re worried about that. These next two weeks can’t pass fast enough. 

I had pneumonia a couple of years ago had to stay in the hospital for a week after an emergency appendectomy (really bad timing for that) when I was still trying to recover from it. Not a pleasant experience and one of the biggest reasons why I'm obsessively following this and other related threads.

Keeping my fingers crossed for your kin.

 

[williemackgarza 1,826]

I work at a fire department NW of Houston, small town and all I can speak of is what we are seeing, I’d say at the beginning of all this ems calls were maybe 10 percent covid related and now probably 90 percent of them are with the bulk of them being positive. Throughout this whole deal we were able to escape relatively unscathed even with exposures. Last week we lost an entire engine company go on quarantine with all testing positive, I just found out one of the guys who relieved me tested positive. It’s pretty easy to downplay it all or even ignore it, right up until the point it directly affects you. A few weeks ago the ER was holding seven covid positive patients because of lack of beds, this is in probably a 13-14 bed ER

Thanks for your service. Try and stay safe out there

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

A lot of parents have certainly learned a bit about teaching.... and they are dealing with their own kids.

Which is why many want their kids out of the house.  Turns out that being cooped up with them all day, every day, is not all it's cracked up to be.

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

This was yesterday.

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/81-positive-covid-19-cases-confirmed-at-round-rock-nursing-home/

Quote

San Gabriel Rehabilitation and Care Center, a nursing home in Round Rock, has confirmed 81 positive cases of COVID-19 — nearly all found in the past week.

This total includes 48 residents and 33 staff members, according to a company notification posted online Tuesday.

“Our facility conducted mass testing on July 8, 2020, which resulted in the positive cases,” said Leah Gage, the facility’s administrator, in a statement. “We continue to practice all of the enhanced safety precautions recommended by our local, state and federal health officials. In addition to the enhance safety precautions, our facility administered mass testing of all residents and staff to arm us with the knowledge to prevent further spread of the virus.”

The significant outbreak at San Gabriel Rehabilitation coincides with a spike in COVID-19 in Austin nursing homes in recent days. Austin Wellness and Rehabilitation Center, a nursing home in Northwest Austin, reported 52 cases of the virus in the past week, according to the company’s website.

 

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

35 minutes ago, achooloco said:

Fucking shit. My relative in the Austin medical community tested positive today. Day one of symptoms was yesterday and the test results came back today. Isolating at home now and luckily their spouse/kids have enough room to manage the next two weeks but the spouse had life threatening pneumonia a few years ago so they’re worried about that. These next two weeks can’t pass fast enough. 

We've had a neighbor test positive, and then two friends and their daughter test positive, all within the past 48 hours.    Kind of unsettling that all of the sudden people that we thought were being careful are getting it.  And the neighbor is a retired anesthesiologist, and retired, with a diabetic wife, and I know they were being very careful - they were having everything delivered.  He thinks he knows how he got it (or rather who he got it from), based on the fact that they had very little contact with people over the past few months.  I'm guessing one of their kids.

[achooloco 1,086]

29 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We've had a neighbor test positive, and then two friends and their daughter test positive, all within the past 48 hours.    Kind of unsettling that all of the sudden people that we thought were being careful are getting it.  And the neighbor is a retired anesthesiologist, and retired, with a diabetic wife, and I know they were being very careful - they were having everything delivered.  He thinks he knows how he got it (or rather who he got it from), based on the fact that they had very little contact with people over the past few months.  I'm guessing one of their kids.

Yeah, it’s hitting close to home even for the careful people. But no doubt where my relative got it, they’ve been treating positive patients since March and been rotated on/off the ward/section a couple times at least. 

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

Crossposting:

Austin-area district plans:

• Austin ISD: Classes start Aug 18, online for 3 weeks.
• Bastrop: Online for 3 weeks (more info this coming Monday)
• Del Valle: Start Aug 17, online for first 6 weeks.  Families will be updated during week of Sept 8 for further plans.  They are planning for real-time interaction with teachers over video and not canned videos.
• Dripping Springs: Board meeting this coming Monday to decide about shifting first four weeks to being virtual.
• Eanes: Online for first three weeks.
• Georgetown:  No official plans yet, waiting on survey info.  They are looking at releasing plans on July 21 for parents.
• Hays: Moved actual start date back.   In-person teaching in "late September".  More plans coming this Monday.  They stated they are looking at all options that would allow them to delay in-person schooling as long as possible.
• IDEA: August 11, Classes online.
• KIPP Charter Schools:  Parents can choose 100% online or 100% on-campus, and have to decide by July 22.
• Lake Travis ISD: District Spokesperson: “It is too early for us to determine if we will be adding the additional four weeks of online learning, staggering start/end times, eliminating assemblies, or allowing teachers to teach remotely”
• Leander: Online through September 8/the first four weeks, and then reassess based on local health guidelines.  They are relying on Austin Public Health for guidance and wants Phase 2 before students can be back in the classroom.
• Lockhart ISD: They are not ready to release their plans yet.
• Manor ISD: No decision has been made
• Pflugerville ISD: PFISD Spokesperson: “Our leadership team hasn’t had the opportunity to determine how this will affect us and what decisions will be made for the future. What I can say right now is that we have informed our families this past week that we will begin the school year 100% virtual for the first three weeks, and if there are any changes we will be sure to inform our staff, parents and community as soon as decisions are made”
• Round Rock: Bragged about being the first Central Texas district to announce they were going all-virtual for the first three weeks.  School starts Aug. 20, on-campus starting Sept. 10 (depending on local cases).

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

RR nursing home stuff

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/it-just-felt-like-they-didnt-care-family-wants-answers-after-81-covid-19-cases-found-at-round-rock-nursing-home/

Quote

San Gabriel Rehabilitation and Care Center published a notice for families, residents and the public explaining there had been 81 positive cases of COVID-19 — 48 residents and 33 staff members — detected after a round of testing on July 8.

Quote

In a letter to residents, the facility administrator said, “While we are disappointed to see the increased number of cases in our facility, we knew that our numbers would likely go up as a result of mass testing. Rather than be discouraged by more known cases, we are encouraged that access to testing is improving our ability to respond to this virus and will enable us to protect our residents and staff in a more targeted way moving forward.”

No, your numbers went up because somebody fucked up.  48 residents and 33 staff members didn't catch it because you tested them.

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

Jarrell ISD super bailed on them.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/jarrell-isd-superintendent-announces-resignation-weeks-before-school-starts/

Quote

Jarrell Independent School District Superintendent Bill Chapman has announced his resignation during an already turbulent time for many parents, students and teachers. 

According to Jarrell ISD, an agreement has been reached which allows Chapman the ability to pursue other interests and permits the board to pursue hiring another superintendent.

Quote

“It’s about a month before school starts, and we are just now getting information. I am one of many frustrated and concerned employees,” said Jarrell ISD Athletics Coach, Liz Boyd. “Why is there no skeleton plan in place? I am so glad my kids are not in school. Because if they were, my anxiety would be magnified even more.”

Quote

Chapman gave a video update to parents back on June 25, but that was before the state offered any sort of guidelines. 

“There is a whole lot we don’t know. We are not sure what normal school is going to look like,” said Chapman. “I look back to my coaching days, and I say to myself and my staff, ‘We can’t play by the rules if we don’t know the rules.”

The Jarrell School District did put out a survey and formed a committee of parents to offer suggestions. The district also pulled former Henderson ISD Superintendent Kieth Boles out of retirement to take over in the interim.

Quote

“You’re not helping frustrated parents either, a month before school starts we have no plan.”

What the fuck have they been doing since March to not have some kind of plan in place?  They've only got 2,000 students.

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

For those whose kids are in a religious school, y'all get to ignore local health mandates.

https://www.kxan.com/top-stories/texas-attorney-general-religious-private-schools-can-open-in-the-fall-regardless-of-local-health-orders/

Quote

On Friday, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton  issued an open letter to religious private schools in the state, informing them that local public health orders trying to restrict their re-openings violate the United States and Texas Constitutions and the Texas Religious Freedom Restoration Act.

Quote

“As the U.S. Supreme Court reaffirmed just last week, there are robust constitutional and statutory protections unique to religious individuals and communities, specifically including religious private schools. In accordance with the protections granted by the First Amendment and Texas law, this guidance allows religious private schools to determine for themselves when to reopen free from any government mandate or interference.”

– Texas Attorney General Paxton

 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,823]

Jarrell ISD super bailed on them.
https://www.kxan.com/news/local/williamson-county/jarrell-isd-superintendent-announces-resignation-weeks-before-school-starts/

Jarrell Independent School District Superintendent Bill Chapman has announced his resignation during an already turbulent time for many parents, students and teachers. 
According to Jarrell ISD, an agreement has been reached which allows Chapman the ability to pursue other interests and permits the board to pursue hiring another superintendent.

“It’s about a month before school starts, and we are just now getting information. I am one of many frustrated and concerned employees,” said Jarrell ISD Athletics Coach, Liz Boyd. “Why is there no skeleton plan in place? I am so glad my kids are not in school. Because if they were, my anxiety would be magnified even more.”

Chapman gave a video update to parents back on June 25, but that was before the state offered any sort of guidelines. 
“There is a whole lot we don’t know. We are not sure what normal school is going to look like,” said Chapman. “I look back to my coaching days, and I say to myself and my staff, ‘We can’t play by the rules if we don’t know the rules.”
The Jarrell School District did put out a survey and formed a committee of parents to offer suggestions. The district also pulled former Henderson ISD Superintendent Kieth Boles out of retirement to take over in the interim.

“You’re not helping frustrated parents either, a month before school starts we have no plan.”

What the fuck have they been doing since March to not have some kind of plan in place?  They've only got 2,000 students.

Hookers and blow?

[elfenix 34,344]

4 hours ago, bolverk said:

Is it because it didn't really become widespread in the early months like most of those comparisons (East Asians were never swamped) and therefore doctors have learned to treat it better?

yep.  much better understanding of steroidal treatment and physical treatment (keeping patients on sides rather than backs, for example) that docs elsewhere were figuring out while we locked down back in march/april. 

[Trey3216 15,379]

7 hours ago, justhookit said:

Camp Beer Run?

B Double E Double R-U-N 

[Sawbonz 27,662]

7 hours ago, bolverk said:

The comparison between westernized East Asian democracies and the US/TX is absolutely staggering in contrast. These are yesterday's numbers as posted by Worldometers.

South Korea
Population: 51,271,209
Cases: 13,612 (265 per million)
Deaths: 291 (6 per million)

Japan
Population: 126,457,976
Cases: 22,890 (181 per million)
Deaths: 985 (8 per million)

Taiwan
Population: 23,818,733
Cases: 452 (19 per million)
Deaths: 7 (0.3 per million)

US
Population: 331,086,970
Cases: 3,695,025 (11,160 per million)
Deaths: 141,118 (426 per million)

Texas
Population: 28,995,881
Cases: 315,924 (10,895 per million)
Deaths: 2,864 (132 per million)
 

While we are sucking shit thorough a straw no doubt, the Asian countries lived through SARS-1 which was much more deadly. They aren’t fucking around w Covid

[Trey3216 15,379]

As far as death rates in Texas being low, I’ve been seeing some theories out there by  folks in the medical community hypothesizing that Texas’ high airborne allergen exposure can lend people to better fight off the disease.  No idea, just thought it an interesting idea/hypothesis.   Who the fuck knows anymore why it do what it do 

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

As far as death rates in Texas being low, I’ve been seeing some theories out there by  folks in the medical community hypothesizing that Texas’ high airborne allergen exposure can lend people to better fight off the disease.  No idea, just thought it an interesting idea/hypothesis.   Who the fuck knows anymore why it do what it do 

So something like this?

[bolverk 29,738]

5 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

While we are sucking shit thorough a straw no doubt, the Asian countries lived through SARS-1 which was much more deadly. They aren’t fucking around w Covid

That was kind of rhe point. They masked up and didn't throw a shit fit about it. They also understood early on about the importance of contact tracing and isolating positives. It's almost as if they had a game plan that could be replicated elsewhere but hasn't been followed.

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

As far as death rates in Texas being low, I’ve been seeing some theories out there by  folks in the medical community hypothesizing that Texas’ high airborne allergen exposure can lend people to better fight off the disease.  No idea, just thought it an interesting idea/hypothesis.   Who the fuck knows anymore why it do what it do 

As an O+ allergy sufferer, I'll gladly accept the preliminary findings of those theories for very selfish reasons.

[C-Man 27,286]

41 minutes ago, bolverk said:

As an O+ allergy sufferer, I'll gladly accept the preliminary findings of those theories for very selfish reasons.

I see you, fam.

[Bevo 13,605]

1 hour ago, elfenix said:

yep.  much better understanding of steroidal treatment and physical treatment (keeping patients on sides rather than backs, for example) that docs elsewhere were figuring out while we locked down back in march/april. 

Chitowndoc are patients simply put on their stomachs or are they rotated? I thought patients were rotated because laying in different positions recruited different muscles and parts of the lung. Most of the time in the hospital patients are lying on their backs and their lungs become compressed by the fluid and inflammation. Moving onto ones stomach helps open different airways - and different parts of your ribs can expand. Basically, it isn't good to stay in one position too long. But, a larger share of the lungs is in the back of the body than the front so patients on their stomachs don’t have to support as much lung weight. So, in this sense, it is best for patients to remain on their stomach. Just curious to know what y'all are doing.

[justhookit 4,191]

I agree with all of what y’all are saying about why death rate is lower. But the fact remains that the main reason is deaths haven’t yet caught up with the rise in cases. We are working with the wrong denominator.

corpus is at 1% right now but has 7000ish active cases. 8000 total cases since February. It’s going to go up. Probably a lot. And then will go back down as cases resolve. I’m guessing the CDC number of .65% for IFR is pretty good right now. If I was betting I’d say it ends up somewhere around .5

Regardless, if you do the math right now, CFR is around 4-6%. That’s way high but it’s the result we get because the data sucks.

Edited July 18, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4,191]

Nueces/Corpus had a second day in a row of good news. 310 new cases today. A lot of public testing is going on that might skew things upward a little but the numbers say that we are likely on the right track. If that continues into next Wednesday or so then it looks like our spike is over. Now we need to get it going down and not just “flatten” the curve.  Hopefully people will continue to take this seriously.

[justhookit 4,191]

Ok last post. This is local to Corpus, but if you like graphs and charts and numbers there’s a lot of really good stuff here. It’s not politics or opinions it’s just math https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/20200717-Public-Health-Briefing.pdf

a bunch of people are going to die soon, unnecessarily.

[justhookit 4,191]

9 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

Texas has always reported lower deaths in comparison to those infected.  My thoughts are it is lower because of what is reported as cause of death.  If you have covid and die of a heart attack or stroke you can either include covid or not. Texas has not been reporting deaths as covid related unless it has been direct. Some pages back it showed texas and Arizona as having under reported covid deaths by 40-50 percent. Look at total texas deaths at this time last year and total deaths so far this year. The discrepancy is eye popping. That and improved standard of care are your reasons for the low death rate.

This data is a little old and likely improving, but as of June 6 Texas had 2600 excess deaths for this year. The excess deaths include Covid. Last I saw Texas was at 98% of expected deaths on the year but I can’t find the link right now. Even if you make the assumption that we are undercounting covid by 40-50%, total deaths have had no significant change. Deaths are deaths no matter which category you put them in.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/05/us/coronavirus-death-toll-us.html

more importantly, as of mid June the total “excess” deaths in the entire U.S. was 21,600 after you factor covid in. There’s your number. For the entire country.

Quote

Nationwide, at least 118,100 more people have died than usual between March 15 and June 13. That number is more than 21,600 higher than the official count of coronavirus deaths for that period. 

I’m not going to do the math but probably 80% of that was in NY and the rest of the Northeast.

Edited July 18, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4,191]

Here’s all kinds of data you can play with https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

[South Austin 52,638]

Three posts ago you said it was your last post. You are not a man of your word.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

As far as death rates in Texas being low, I’ve been seeing some theories out there by  folks in the medical community hypothesizing that Texas’ high airborne allergen exposure can lend people to better fight off the disease.  No idea, just thought it an interesting idea/hypothesis.   Who the fuck knows anymore why it do what it do 

stop hanging out with GRHorn

[stork642 4,502]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Three posts ago you said it was your last post. You are not a man of your word.

He is a wordy man though.  

[scottsins 1,981]

10 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

As far as death rates in Texas being low, I’ve been seeing some theories out there by  folks in the medical community hypothesizing that Texas’ high airborne allergen exposure can lend people to better fight off the disease.  No idea, just thought it an interesting idea/hypothesis.   Who the fuck knows anymore why it do what it do 

Link?

[BrazilHorn 6,637]

Cases for Travis County by age bucket 7/17 vs 7/16. Three days in a row that 60 YO + have been above their overall average.

Age Bracket	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/17 vs 7/16	7	17	63	44	38	24	17	12	8	230
% of Daily Change	3.04%	7.39%	27.39%	19.13%	16.52%	10.43%	7.39%	5.22%	3.48%
% of Total Cases	2.66%	7.68%	27.52%	21.79%	16.49%	11.63%	6.28%	3.37%	2.57%	17,130

[BrazilHorn 6,637]

Concerning trend for Travis County: % of Covid Hospitalizations resulting in patient being on ventilator has been rising for the past month

Last five rolling 7 day intervals are:

6/19: 15.80%

6/26: 16.82%

7/3: 16.78%

7/10: 18.52%

7/17: 20.20%

The 20.20% isn't all time high for Travis County but given the significant increase in total hospitalizations it is concerning having both the count of folks on ventilators (now >100 for first time) & the % of hospitalizations they represent also rising. Curious to see what these numbers look like as the increase in the 60yo+ cohort runs through system.

 

[justhookit 4,191]

6 hours ago, South Austin said:

Three posts ago you said it was your last post. You are not a man of your word.

Haha fair enough. I didn’t say last post ever. I waited a few minutes. And I got sidetracked by wanting to respond to UTgrad.

Edited July 18, 2020 by justhookit

[ryskey 447]

On the excess deaths topic, would death rates excluding COVID be decreasing as a result of fewer deaths from other infectious diseases (seasonal flu etc) and fewer car accidents, etc?  Is the number so small that it's just a rounding error?  Has there been any attempt to normalize for that?

[justhookit 4,191]

2 minutes ago, ryskey said:

On the excess deaths topic, would death rates excluding COVID be decreasing as a result of fewer deaths from other infectious diseases (seasonal flu etc) and fewer car accidents, etc?  Is the number so small that it's just a rounding error?  Has there been any attempt to normalize for that?

I’ve read a few articles on that subject and mostly it seems like it’s too early to do that kind of real analysis. Some deaths like accidents are certainly down but on the other hand other types of death are up because people aren’t going to the emergency room as often for heart attack/ stroke type things. I’m sure we will see Facebook posts in the coming months that Covid is saving lives!

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Concerning trend for Travis County: % of Covid Hospitalizations resulting in patient being on ventilator has been rising for the past month

Last five rolling 7 day intervals are:

6/19: 15.80%

6/26: 16.82%

7/3: 16.78%

7/10: 18.52%

7/17: 20.20%

The 20.20% isn't all time high for Travis County but given the significant increase in total hospitalizations it is concerning having both the count of folks on ventilators (now >100 for first time) & the % of hospitalizations they represent also rising. Curious to see what these numbers look like as the increase in the 60yo+ cohort runs through system.

 

I’m beginning to think the “isolate the olds and let everybody else go about their business” folks had no idea what they were talking about.

[atomheartbevo 89,858]

https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/health-experts-say-the-recent-spike-of-covid-19-cases-in-texas-are-due-to-fourth-of-july-weekend/503-873ed33a-c0ee-4e4e-b2f3-af28ad006628

Quote

Health experts said the spike in new infections is partially the result of social gatherings over the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

Researchers with Texas A&M Corpus Christi Coronavirus Task Force said this time last month, Corpus Christi had one of the lowest rates per capita across Texas.