COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

https://www.khou.com/article/news/local/watch-live-city-of-corpus-christi-nueces-county-officials-join-tamucc-to-provide-covid-19-updates-in-the-coastal-bend/503-55e9ab3a-9bef-496f-8bb4-8c9ec20ee3a3

Quote

Another shocking announcement today as 85 babies under the age of 1 have tested positive for the coronavirus in Nueces County, according to Health Director Annette Rodriguez.

During Friday's local Coronavirus Task Force briefing, researchers estimated that 1 in every 8 residents in the Coastal Bend is actively infected with COVID-19.  

[justhookit 4,205]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/health-experts-say-the-recent-spike-of-covid-19-cases-in-texas-are-due-to-fourth-of-july-weekend/503-873ed33a-c0ee-4e4e-b2f3-af28ad006628

 

This is fucking bullshit and they need to stop putting stuff like this out there. The key word is partially and as a percentage it’s really low. Corpus had 321 cases reported on July 4. Average daily cases since then? About 350. 

[dcar00 14,907]

11 hours ago, justhookit said:

I agree with all of what y’all are saying about why death rate is lower. But the fact remains that the main reason is deaths haven’t yet caught up with the rise in cases. We are working with the wrong denominator.

corpus is at 1% right now but has 7000ish active cases. 8000 total cases since February. It’s going to go up. Probably a lot. And then will go back down as cases resolve. I’m guessing the CDC number of .65% for IFR is pretty good right now. If I was betting I’d say it ends up somewhere around .5

Regardless, if you do the math right now, CFR is around 4-6%. That’s way high but it’s the result we get because the data sucks.

If you take the CDC 10 unknown cases for every known case US is at .38 IFR.  Its probably higher than 1 to 10 ratio  now but you can go with the 1 to 10 for now.

[Trey3216 15,450]

The constant barrage of shitty, gotcha ‘info’ with this is beyond annoying.  

[justhookit 4,205]

12 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

If you take the CDC 10 unknown cases for every known case US is at .38 IFR.  Its probably higher than 1 to 10 ratio  now but you can go with the 1 to 10 for now.

CDC released the .65 IFR number 3 days ago.

Edit- It was an update that attempted to account for asymptomatic and unreported cases.

Edited July 18, 2020 by justhookit

[dcar00 14,907]

5 minutes ago, justhookit said:

CDC released the .65 IFR number 3 days ago.

that was based on data thru June 29th.  they also said they assumed 1 to 10 ratio which is how they got to the .65 from June 29th numbers.

[justhookit 4,205]

12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The constant barrage of shitty, gotcha ‘info’ with this is beyond annoying.  

Well don’t get me wrong. Those numbers suck. Per capita we are one of the worst counties in the country. The error is in attributing the spike to July 4th. The reality is that the spike happened before the holiday because we are dumbshits with no self control.

[Trey3216 15,450]

Just now, justhookit said:

Well don’t get me wrong. Those numbers suck. Per capita we are one of the worst counties in the country. The error is in attributing the spike to July 4th. The reality is that the spike happened before the holiday because we are dumbshits with no self control.

I’m agreeing with you.  The verbiage of so much is just annoying as shit.   

[justhookit 4,205]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that was based on data thru June 29th.  they also said they assumed 1 to 10 ratio which is how they got to the .65 from June 29th numbers.

Dude. The denominator is using current, active cases. You can’t get an accurate IFR number until at least a month after the fact.

Edited July 18, 2020 by justhookit

[dcar00 14,907]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Well don’t get me wrong. Those numbers suck. Per capita we are one of the worst counties in the country. The error is in attributing the spike to July 4th. The reality is that the spike happened before the holiday because we are dumbshits with no self control.

have to admit is crazy how little old corpus ends up leading the country.

[dcar00 14,907]

I think it will level out at .3 or so at the end.  but the reality is no one really knows shit, its all just a guess.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

The constant barrage of shitty, gotcha ‘info’ with this is beyond annoying.  

There are a bunch of ignorant fuckstains on this site that were spewing absolute garbage. Their ignorance is dangerous and they deserve to be shamed.

[Newdoc 3,508]

2 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I’m beginning to think the “isolate the olds and let everybody else go about their business” folks had no idea what they were talking about.

In what way?

The problem is that the olds were never isolated. There was no reliable plan. If you really isolated them or assured non infectious contact, then the ifr/cfr would plummet. 

Edited July 18, 2020 by Newdoc

[justhookit 4,205]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

I think it will level out at .3 or so at the end.  but the reality is no one really knows shit, its all just a guess.

I’m close to that at .5 but yeah everyone including the CDC seems to be pulling numbers out of our ass.

[Rip76 5,009]

My cousin who lives in South Padre sent me this.

https://www.valleycentral.com/news/local-news/rio-grande-valley-hospitals-also-treating-mexican-nationals-seeking-covid-19-treatment/

Rio Grande Valley hospitals also treating Mexican nationals seeking COVID-19 treatment

If true, this certainly can’t help the numbers.

[ChickenSandwich 9,921]

Hidalgo county has more deaths, hospitalizations and ICU patients than Travis  

Hidalgo vs Travis
Deaths : 267 vs 196

Hospitalization: 982 v 469

ICU: 304 vs 158

 https://www.hidalgocounty.us/coronavirusupdates

population 870,000 vs 1,270,000

Edited July 18, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[Not a Sock 2,362]

13 hours ago, justhookit said:

Ok last post. This is local to Corpus, but if you like graphs and charts and numbers there’s a lot of really good stuff here. It’s not politics or opinions it’s just math https://www.cctexas.com/sites/default/files/20200717-Public-Health-Briefing.pdf

a bunch of people are going to die soon, unnecessarily.

Damn what the fucks going down in kingsville and alice?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

In what way?

The problem is that the olds were never isolated. There was no reliable plan.

[South Austin 53,156]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Hidalgo county has more deaths, hospitalizations and ICU patients than Travis  

Hidalgo vs Travis
Deaths : 267 vs 196

Hospitalization: 982 v 469

ICU: 304 vs 158

 https://www.hidalgocounty.us/coronavirusupdates

population 870,000 vs 1,270,000

Wow. Why? Quality of health care? Diabeetus?

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

1 hour ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

I like how Corpus Christi gave a shout out to Batman/Joker in their PDF report when discussing the tracking of cell phones.

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[Hpara759 1,788]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Wow. Why? Quality of health care? Diabeetus?

You don't have to ask that.....

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

Your 7/19 Wuhan Flu Update:

 

[Bartles 769]

It's a horrifying video, and certainly it is taken in a hospital somewhere stricken by COVID. But the comments have some pretty clear evidence that was taken in Italy, Mexico or Ecuador. I'm sure the actual McAllen ICUs are pretty bad though.

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[Armybrat 41,328]

Mrs. Brat was tested Friday.

[Texaus 389]

That’s great on the increased testing, but isn’t it just about worthless when there’s a backlog and it takes over a week to get results, or have we solved that problem?

[Message Board User 12,405]

1 minute ago, Texaus said:

That’s great on the increased testing, but isn’t it just about worthless when there’s a backlog and it takes over a week to get results, or have we solved that problem?

Correct - getting tested, if the results won't come back for 10-14 days (it took 11 days for me), is useless.

[XYZ 2,154]

My son got tested last week and got the result 15 minutes later. The paper did say that there’s a 20% false negative rate.

[Message Board User 12,405]

13 minutes ago, XYZ said:

My son got tested last week and got the result 15 minutes later. The paper did say that there’s a 20% false negative rate.

Cheek swabs are certainly quicker, but the false negative rate is a problem (I've heard 30% false negative for cheek swabs).

[Scheiss Meister 8,452]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Mrs. Brat was tested Friday.

Tell her to stay negative.

[Armybrat 41,328]

9 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

Tell her to stay negative.

Must be ok, because the hospital says her Monday afternoon surgery is still on.

[Telegraph_it 3,376]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

My son got tested last week and got the result 15 minutes later. The paper did say that there’s a 20% false negative rate.

That seems pretty useless. I’m not sure what you can do with something that has a 1 in 5 chance of being a false negative. What about false positive? 

[VolenteHawk 495]

23 hours ago, justhookit said:

I’ve read a few articles on that subject and mostly it seems like it’s too early to do that kind of real analysis. Some deaths like accidents are certainly down but on the other hand other types of death are up because people aren’t going to the emergency room as often for heart attack/ stroke type things. I’m sure we will see Facebook posts in the coming months that Covid is saving lives!

I read a study (that I can’t immediately find now) that estimated that up to 1/3 of excess deaths could be from people delaying going to the hospital for treatment of serious health issues. They used a couple of papers, one a delay of care to outcomes study, and some death rate compares for other diseases.

My impression was that I didn’t know if the study would stand up to peer review rigor, but it also wasn’t crazy.

[UT_OB1 2,262]

1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

That seems pretty useless. I’m not sure what you can do with something that has a 1 in 5 chance of being a false negative. What about false positive? 

Most of the quick tests we’ve dealt with are very good at telling you you have it, but 5-20% chance of false negative. We’ve been told they are supposed to be used to confirm a positive if showing other symptoms, not to see if someone got it because they were in contact with a confirmed or suspected case. 

[Guest Lobo]

What's the latest protocol now with the false negatives?  If symptoms persist, they/you bring yourself back again?  But what if you remain asymptomatic, and are still within the window of time from possible exposure?  

I would think a 5% false positive would just be a "cost of business", but when you get to the 15-20% part of the band, that's concerning and you've got to still stay on top of that.  Any news? 

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

My family got tested Thursday and got results back today (Drs office txt us)

This is in Austin, not sure as to backlog elsewhere. 
 

Also if you want a rapid test Tarrytown Pharmacy taking reservations and administering them. ($130)

[William_Cannon 86]

A friend in Houston waited for over two hours to get a test and ended up leaving untested because of the wait. Then two weeks later she got a positive test result in the mail. How messed up is that?

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

Here is the DoD cases compare and the TCAD site also updated deaths WoW. One weird thing is the TCAD site reduced the # of deaths in the 20-29 age bracket from 3 the week ending 7/11 to 2 the week ending 7/18. Not sure what happened (queue contrail theories that the death was coded something different so city can hide deaths.) Imagine that someone fast fingered something and the death ended up in a different age bracket. There were 35 deaths last week in Austin (17% of total deaths since March), heavily in the age cohort of 70+. (77% of deaths last week). If you are over 60 you need to stay the fuck home. If you get this, you have a HIGH chance of having bad shit up to and including death happen to you.

Stay safe, wash hands, wear a mask.

Age Bracket	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 7/18 vs 7/17	2	14	67	55	52	25	19	4	1	239
% of Daily Change	0.84%	5.86%	28.03%	23.01%	21.76%	10.46%	7.95%	1.67%	0.42%
% of Total Cases	2.63%	7.66%	27.53%	21.81%	16.56%	11.62%	6.30%	3.35%	2.54%	17,369
Deaths Through 7/11	0	0	3	4	7	17	34	45	58	168
Deaths Through 7/18	0	0	2	4	9	21	37	55	75	203
Change WoW	0	0	-1	0	2	4	3	10	17	35
% Deaths by Age Bracket through 7/18	0.00%	0.00%	0.99%	1.97%	4.43%	10.34%	18.23%	27.09%	36.95%

[NeverMarryAStripper 22,242]

Everyone knows the post office is a hotbed of commie libtard leftist socialists

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

28 minutes ago, William_Cannon said:

 Then two weeks later she got a positive test result in the mail. How messed up is that?

Why isn't she just pissing on the little plastic stick thing like most women?

[Message Board User 12,405]

Wow...Hidalgo county.

 

Edited July 19, 2020 by Message Board User

[South Austin 53,156]

The fuck going on in the Valley?

[williemackgarza 1,826]

Damn. Have a trip next Monday to So Padre. House on the beach. Any word over in Cameron County or how So Padre looks?

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[Message Board User 12,405]

13 minutes ago, williemackgarza said:

Damn. Have a trip next Monday to So Padre. House on the beach. Any word over in Cameron County or how So Padre looks?

Don't get arrested.

 

[B00M 6,726]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

The fuck going on in the Valley?

The same thing that's happening in Austin but with a larger Hispanic population?

 

Maybe some combination of:

Larger % having to go to work / unable to WFH; 

Larger / generational house holds;

Perhaps more not taking the threat seriously? (last I checked Mexico's federal government was taking it even less seriously than ours)

... Just spit balling here, noracist

[B00M 6,726]

5 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Ugh I clicked the link to view the doc And the 1st reply was "1984"

 

[Message Board User 12,405]

5 minutes ago, B00M said:

The same thing that's happening in Austin but with a larger Hispanic population?

 

Maybe some combination of:

Larger % having to go to work / unable to WFH; 

Larger / generational house holds;

Perhaps more not taking the threat seriously? (last I checked Mexico's federal government was taking it even less seriously than ours)

... Just spit balling here, noracist

For what its worth, Hispanic lady I work with recently moved from Hidalgo County to North Texas and I asked her about the numbers there - she said it's all of the above with one additional factor in Hispanic culture...for major family events (like a quincenera) nothing (including a pandemic) will get in the way and they will not call it off.

Edited July 19, 2020 by Message Board User