COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[SHOOTER12 8,882]

7 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

You have a wife?

Whatever he wants to call him is cool....

[B00M 6,725]

10 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

She will be fine. The flu is more dangerous to an 18 year-old. 

Is this a joke?

[GreenspointTexas 9,933]

11 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

She will be fine. The flu is more dangerous to an 18 year-old. 

Jfc

[ZB'Tejas 597]

On 8/2/2020 at 1:36 PM, BradInATX said:

I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.

 

 

 

 

Just got back from Surfside on Monday and found it to be a very pleasant experience other than trying to get children to nap/sleep. Rented a house just north of the town... plenty of people out on the beach but lots of space between.

[Js1 86,939]

13 hours ago, Newdoc said:

Karen on FB told me they didn't so there's that. Plus if we just hang on for 3 more months this thing will go away immediately after the election.

Dad? 

[Hefeweizen 5,416]

11 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

She will be fine. The flu is more dangerous to an 18 year-old. 

This is a hilarious bit.

[Newdoc 3,508]

40 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

This is a hilarious bit.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

Case to case flu is more dangerous for teenagers. This holds true with a slight increased risk per case until older age then something interesting happens at 85 where flu seems to take over again. This of course is case to case. Covid has a greater R factor and will theoretically infect more of every age so you can obviously end up with more Covid fatalities per age group as a whole from sheer volume of infection.

The article also discusses relative risk to other mortality factors as well.  Your high school or college student is still much more likely to die from a car accident even if Covid went unchecked and killed millions of Americans.

[BradInATX 9,208]

58 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

Just got back from Surfside on Monday and found it to be a very pleasant experience other than trying to get children to nap/sleep. Rented a house just north of the town... plenty of people out on the beach but lots of space between.

You must have been right near us. We were about a quarter mile north of the bridge, right on the beach.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,963]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities
Case to case flu is more dangerous for teenagers. This holds true with a slight increased risk per case until older age then something interesting happens at 85 where flu seems to take over again. This of course is case to case. Covid has a greater R factor and will theoretically infect more of every age so you can obviously end up with more Covid fatalities per age group as a whole from sheer volume of infection.
The article also discusses relative risk to other mortality factors as well.  Your high school or college student is still much more likely to die from a car accident even if Covid went unchecked and killed millions of Americans.

Everything (car crashes,lightning strike, covid, flu) death is also basically zero chance at happening.

[B00M 6,725]

36 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

Case to case flu is more dangerous for teenagers. This holds true with a slight increased risk per case until older age then something interesting happens at 85 where flu seems to take over again. This of course is case to case. Covid has a greater R factor and will theoretically infect more of every age so you can obviously end up with more Covid fatalities per age group as a whole from sheer volume of infection.

The article also discusses relative risk to other mortality factors as well.  Your high school or college student is still much more likely to die from a car accident even if Covid went unchecked and killed millions of Americans.

 

But that article straight up says case to case, fir 15-24 year olds, covid is more dangerous in every projection..??

 

[BrazilHorn 6,792]

Jump up to over 300 cases (1st time since 7/25). A big jump in the <19 year old age brackets. They yesterday represented 17% of all cases vs from an overall basis of ~10.5%. Not sure again if this is due to camp, broader testing of kids ahead of schools reopening etc. Large number (relative to what you normally see here) in cases for <1 year old (4) vs prior day.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/3 vs 8/2	4	11	43	70	70	44	46	33	13	1	335
% of Daily Change	1.19%	3.28%	12.84%	20.90%	20.90%	13.13%	13.73%	9.85%	3.88%	0.30%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.76%	7.77%	26.92%	21.76%	16.38%	11.70%	6.44%	3.23%	2.54%	21,549

[texas08 1,599]

She will be fine. The flu is more dangerous to an 18 year-old. 

Yeah, just let her be around old grandpappy Shooter and a fuck ton of other olds...things we’ll be fine anyways why quarantine! Chug some bleach and it will be fine!

[GreenspointTexas 9,933]

Dont forget, just because kids catch covid and are fine now, doesnt mean they could be fine 6 months or 6 years down the road.

[EuroHorn 3,287]

11 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Dont forget, just because kids catch covid and are fine now, doesnt mean they could be fine 6 months or 6 years down the road.

Ballgame!

[kevwun 16,269]

With 150k people dead, do you think Ballgame and 2 weeks are really still so fucking funny?

Edited August 4, 2020 by kevwun

[Js1 86,939]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

With 150k people are dead, do you think Ballgame and 2 weeks are really still so fucking funny?

They do, because then they don't have to address anything of substance. 

[Guest]

37 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Dont forget, just because kids catch covid and are fine now, doesnt mean they could be fine 6 months or 6 years down the road.

well, of course.  When they die 80 years later, you motherfuckers will still say it was Covid related.

[mdmost 43,850]

2 minutes ago, slorch said:

well, of course.  When they die 80 years later, you motherfuckers will still say it was Covid related.

That makes no sense. We will all be dead long before those kids. 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

That makes no sense. We will all be dead long before those kids. 

Indeed.  Just being consistent.

[Guest]

This is the shit that bothers me...  Try looking up incremental deaths or "excess mortality" and it might as well be Big foot or a UFO.

In today's information age, why?   How many people have died in the US in 2020 through July 31, regardless of cause?  what was that number in 2019?

Publicly available data on excess mortality

International organizations are not publishing an international database on excess mortality

Unlike statistics on confirmed COVID-19 deaths – for which several organizations such as the WHO, ECDC and Johns Hopkins University are collating data for all countries – there is no single source of data on excess mortality.

This is a major problem for policymakers, researchers, and the general public that has a need to understand the ongoing pandemic.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

[Js1 86,939]

10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

That makes no sense. We will all be dead long before those kids. 

Not Brat. 

[Guest Lobo]

So people are still dying from other stuff besides COVID-19?  Makes sense. 
 

we have leadership and strategies and plans around traffic accidents, cancer, and heart disease.  As well we should.  Why doesn’t this other deadly killer get any leadership or national plan?   
 

traffic accidents get the NTSB and NHTSA. Cancer got CDC and NIH. 
Covid-19 got Jared 

[Hefeweizen 5,416]

2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

Case to case flu is more dangerous for teenagers. This holds true with a slight increased risk per case until older age then something interesting happens at 85 where flu seems to take over again. This of course is case to case. Covid has a greater R factor and will theoretically infect more of every age so you can obviously end up with more Covid fatalities per age group as a whole from sheer volume of infection.

The article also discusses relative risk to other mortality factors as well.  Your high school or college student is still much more likely to die from a car accident even if Covid went unchecked and killed millions of Americans.

Are you accounting for the associated heart damage that seems to be cropping up in many of the cases after symptoms are gone?  It seems glib to dismiss it on a mortality basis if in addition to helping spread it they can have consequences long after.  I’m unaware of long term complications from the flu but I’m not a doctor which I think you are.

[Bevo 13,825]

1 minute ago, Hefeweizen said:

Are you accounting for the associated heart damage that seems to be cropping up in many of the cases after symptoms are gone?  It seems glib to dismiss it on a mortality basis if in addition to helping spread it they can have consequences long after.  I’m unaware of long term complications from the flu but I’m not a doctor which I think you are.

This is an unknown. Hearts do a pretty good job remodeling. Just because someone shows damage immediately after COVID does not mean that that damage will persist.

[Scary Stranger 1,722]

So the content of the video is food related, I thought the video itself was interesting from a covid standpoint.  Filmed in London in the last 2 weeks.  Pretty much zero masks or social distancing even from the random people walking in the background.  Is there an English version of 'Muh freedom'?

 

[Grade of D as in David 13,255]

3 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

So the content of the video is food related, I thought the video itself was interesting from a covid standpoint.  Filmed in London in the last 2 weeks.  Pretty much zero masks or social distancing even from the random people walking in the background.  Is there an English version of 'Muh freedom'?

 

No but there is a Scottish version

[Captainant 28,386]

35 minutes ago, slorch said:

This is the shit that bothers me...  Try looking up incremental deaths or "excess mortality" and it might as well be Big foot or a UFO.

In today's information age, why?   How many people have died in the US in 2020 through July 31, regardless of cause?  what was that number in 2019?

Publicly available data on excess mortality

International organizations are not publishing an international database on excess mortality

Unlike statistics on confirmed COVID-19 deaths – for which several organizations such as the WHO, ECDC and Johns Hopkins University are collating data for all countries – there is no single source of data on excess mortality.

This is a major problem for policymakers, researchers, and the general public that has a need to understand the ongoing pandemic.

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

Wow, it's almost like there's been a systemic effort to prevent gathering of data on the spread of COVID, and to prevent the public dissemination of that info. If only we had a pandemic task force team staffed with career professionals on hand - I heard we can just hire them back and spin everything up when we need em. Should give em a chance to get tanned rested and ready.

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wow, it's almost like there's been a systemic effort to prevent gathering of data on the spread of COVID, and to prevent the public dissemination of that info. If only we had a pandemic task force team staffed with career professionals on hand - I heard we can just hire them back and spin everything up when we need em. Should give em a chance to get tanned rested and ready.

Number of deaths requires a task force?  LOLz.

Not concerned with cause.   Just deaths.  It is not rooted in politics or the blame game.

Edited August 4, 2020 by slorch

[gmr548 16,681]

That makes no sense. We will all be dead long before those kids. 

Slorched

[Captainant 28,386]

4 minutes ago, slorch said:

Number of deaths requires a task force?  LOLz.

Not concerned with cause.   Just deaths.  It is not rooted in politics or the blame game.

Well we sure don't fucking have an accurate count of cases or deaths in this country, and active steps have been taken to reduce public access to that data. So you prefer to examine bad/non-existent data rather than stop and think about what's blocking us from the data. 

So no it's not that a task force is a must have, but the career team who existed for this exact problem was cut as a cost savings measure AND we as a nation lack the basic tools to make data driven decisions. 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

That makes no sense. We will all be dead long before those kids. 

Slorched

negged.

[sunset87 253]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

 

But that article straight up says case to case, fir 15-24 year olds, covid is more dangerous in every projection..??

 

Not the way I read it. Like Newdoc said on a 1 to 1 or case by case basis it's mortality rate is less than the flu for 15 -24 yr olds. Once you hit about 200,000 deaths from covid then it starts to exceed the flu for that age group.  In other words, the way I understand this, since covid spreads easier and will infect more it will eventually surpass flu in mortality rate for 15 - 24 age group if enough people are infected. Correct me if I am wrong.

That's not to say that there aren't plenty of dangers associated with catching it, even if you are in that young age group, which has been discussed.  Obviously spreading it to the more vulnerable is at the top of that list, and the unknown, possible long term damage you may incur from infection.

I am particularly interested in this information because I have two college age kids that are about to leave home for school.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

i use the cdc's website for excess deaths and have used it for months.  is that not what you are talking about?  it's US only but extremely great and easy to understand.  

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

[Surly Bevo 25,655]

I actually think outside of Covid19 it is a pretty fair observation that the simple act of quickly (within a couple weeks) and efficiently counting and reporting dead within a reasonable degree of accuracy (you know one of the two things you really really should be good at when you consider tallying major vital statistics)  seems to be such a toil in 2020.

There is really no excuse for the notion that when you look at places that attempt to do it that they tell you that the last 3-4 months of data is too incomplete to make it analysis worthy.

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i use the cdc's website for excess deaths and have used it for months.  is that not what you are talking about?  it's US only but extremely great and easy to understand.  

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

 

Nope.

I'm looking for gross numbers, with no cause of death/ circumstances polluting/ influencing the tally.  Specifically avoiding agenda driven stats/ "science" or otherwise bullshit factoids.

Edited August 4, 2020 by slorch

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

Just now, slorch said:

Nope.

I'm looking for gross numbers, with no cause of death/ circumstances polluting/ influencing the tally.

that's there.  look at the chart. it shows all deaths.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

Texas over the past four years, yellow line is the 95% confidence interval for any period.  Blue is the observed deaths.

 

 

United States over the past four years, yellow line is the 95% confidence interval for any period.  Blue is the observed deaths.

 

 

[BradInATX 9,208]

9 minutes ago, slorch said:

Nope.

I'm looking for gross numbers, with no cause of death/ circumstances polluting/ influencing the tally.  Specifically avoiding agenda driven stats/ "science" or otherwise bullshit factoids.

That's literally what he gave you.

[Guest]

21 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That's literally what he gave you.

OK.  the tally is in the first table.  1,576925 deaths through Aug 4.  April and May indexed up into the 140% range on percentage of expected deaths.  

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by slorch

[BradInATX 9,208]

3 minutes ago, slorch said:

No it isn't.  Click the link.  The numbers are covid driven, and we all know how objective those recordings have been...

How are you confused by this? It is "Weekly number of deaths from all causes". How is that "Covid driven"?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

2 minutes ago, slorch said:

No it isn't.  Click the link.  The numbers are covid driven, and we all know how objective those recordings have been...

i think i'm going to peace outta this thread.  i sense i've entered someone's safe space.

[The Royal We 3,090]

Slorch evidently needs those charts to be shown on a webpage that does not have the word "Covid" anywhere on it in order for him to process and accept it.  The fact that the raw data is on a page that even mentions Covid makes it invalid.

Seems reasonable.  🤦‍♂️

[Guest]

1 minute ago, The Royal We said:

Slorch evidently needs those charts to be shown on a webpage that does not have the word "Covid" anywhere on it in order for him to process and accept it.  The fact that the raw data is on a page that even mentions Covid makes it invalid.

Seems reasonable.  🤦‍♂️

acknowledged my mistake.

[B00M 6,725]

7 minutes ago, slorch said:

No it isn't.  Click the link.  The numbers are covid driven, and we all know how objective those recordings have been...

Did the charts he shares in post 4066 help??

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i think i'm going to peace outta this thread.  i sense i've entered someone's safe space.

Nope We're good.  Sorry if I infringed upon your own safe area...  Info is much appreciated.

Edited August 4, 2020 by slorch

[JimmyJames 12,271]

I come bearing orange slices and kool aid. Anyone want some? 

[BradInATX 9,208]

15 minutes ago, slorch said:

OK.  the tally is in the first table.  1,576925 deaths through Aug 4.  April and May indexed up into the 140% range on percentage of expected deaths.  The rate is plummeting now.

Generally isn't being discussed at all.

If you dig deeper into that site you will see that there is a reporting lag. Up to 40% at times. I can't gather exactly how long that reporting lag is. They note that  60% of deaths are reported in the first ten days, but not how long it takes to get the other 40%. So I don't know if we can judge July or even May yet (genuinely am not sure).

But, for the year, these numbers show between 219,113 and 377,669 excess deaths for 2020. That passes the "is it bullshit?" test for me, and seems about right. We've got 150,000 confirmed Covid deaths. Add a big bunch early on in NYC and the other hard hit areas, some that weren't diagnosed properly or ever even diagnosed, a little bit of room for just standard margin of error, people who died because they couldn't get "elective" procedures, and I think that's probably right. 

What we don't know is how many fewer deaths we had due to car accidents and other deaths that were mitigated during lockdown (that would mean the Covid number is more), and things like suicides (which would mean the Covid number is less).

We're never really going to know exactly, but I think the data we can look at points to about 225,000-250,000 Covid deaths so far, give or take.

Edited August 4, 2020 by BradInATX

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,963]

Dont forget, just because kids catch covid and are fine now, doesnt mean they could be fine 6 months or 6 years down the road.

Ok so how are those February and March cases coming along? Any complications from them?

[Captainant 28,386]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Ok so how are those February and March cases coming along? Any complications from them?

Well there's 155,000 dead Americans, so you tell me

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,963]

Well there's 155,000 dead Americans, so you tell me

He’s taking long term complications in kids. Not dead folks