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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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  On 8/4/2020 at 5:59 PM, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Ok so how are those February and March cases coming along? Any complications from them?

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Well, I've read multiple articles that talk about lingering respiratory problems, heart issues, general aches, pains, weakness, etc. 
But it's only been a few months - so maybe it is just like the flu and we should go for herd immunity before there is a vacccine, or proven therapeudic treatments

I'm suspecting that Dan Patrick might just be posting using MNFUKM account - then again Patrick was advocating sacrificing the olds, as opposed to our idea of blindly hoping it doesn't affect the youth.

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  On 8/4/2020 at 6:07 PM, Wally Fairway said:
Well, I've read multiple articles that talk about lingering respiratory problems, heart issues, general aches, pains, weakness, etc. 
But it's only been a few months - so maybe it is just like the flu and we should go for herd immunity before there is a vacccine, or proven therapeudic treatments
I'm suspecting that Dan Patrick might just be posting using MNFUKM account - then again Patrick was advocating sacrificing the olds, as opposed to our idea of blindly hoping it doesn't affect the youth.

So are we fucking saying there’s a 75% chance at lung or heart damage? 25%? 5%? .5%? Wouldn’t it be a good idea to check in on past cases from early in the pandemic to see what their insides look like?

Again my post had nothing to do with killing the olds
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  On 8/4/2020 at 2:51 PM, texas08 said:

Yeah, just let her be around old grandpappy Shooter and a fuck ton of other olds...things we’ll be fine anyways why quarantine! Chug some bleach and it will be fine!

 

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You and your medieval ways, you're gonna get people killed with that nonsense.

The proper technique is actually quite simple, safe, and enjoyable:  Drench cotton wool in violet oil before bedtime.  Insert into your anus.   Not only will you smell flowery, you will ward off covid-19!

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  On 8/4/2020 at 8:37 PM, Newdoc said:

That's a small short term study and the damage has not been studied out for morbidity and mortality. The actual heart damage does not appear to be that significant for most but makes a nice scary headline.

I wouldn't freak about any of the stupid news headlines until your doctor freaks out about the stupid headlines. I can tell you the hypervigilance by the layman in reading the headlines is driving doctors crazy.  Our 24 hour news cycle coupled with every dweeby ego driven researcher wanting their moment of glory or misplaced catastrophe warning has given the populace a huge generalized anxiety disorder. Your not going to change anything by worrying about every nuance of Covid 19. For example, Covid was going to knock out all our kidneys, but I have seen data recently that shows acute kidney injury is far less damaging than they first feared.  My biggest long term concern for now is pulmonary remodeling from unchecked viral immune response. We could see a significant subset of people with reduced pulmonary function but that remains to be seen. Lung tissue is pretty good about healing unless permanently scarred. 

Yes, this virus is newish and weird but it's still a virus from a family that has infected humans forever and we haven't changed physiologically in thousands of years except from our poor lifestyle choices. The potential is much scarier for a different type of disease that could alter humanity but Covid ain't it on a macro evolutionary scale.  We certainly can demand a better infrastructure to our public health and infectious response entities but besides being healthy, there's not much else for you or I to do.  I refuse to go through life scared of it.

 

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Is an 18 year-old with Covid at a higher or lower risk of death than one with the flu?

I have been negged by a lot of people for posting lower risk.  Am I wrong?  Or are they wrong?

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Probably about equal. Hard to say given the age range that the CDC reports deaths.

Assuming 200k overall US covid deaths, you would think that 189 Americans aged 15 to 24 would die from the flu compared to 298 from covid.

As a comparison for that same 15 to 24 age range, 14k Americans die of accidents and 5k die from suicide each year.


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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:01 AM, smoky said:

Probably about equal. Hard to say given the age range that the CDC reports deaths.

Assuming 200k overall US covid deaths, you would think that 189 Americans aged 15 to 24 would die from the flu compared to 298 from covid.

As a comparison for that same 15 to 24 age range, 14k Americans die of accidents and 5k die from suicide each year.

 

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so its not just the flu?

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  On 8/4/2020 at 8:37 PM, Newdoc said:

That's a small short term study and the damage has not been studied out for morbidity and mortality. The actual heart damage does not appear to be that significant for most but makes a nice scary headline.

I wouldn't freak about any of the stupid news headlines until your doctor freaks out about the stupid headlines. I can tell you the hypervigilance by the layman in reading the headlines is driving doctors crazy.  Our 24 hour news cycle coupled with every dweeby ego driven researcher wanting their moment of glory or misplaced catastrophe warning has given the populace a huge generalized anxiety disorder. Your not going to change anything by worrying about every nuance of Covid 19. For example, Covid was going to knock out all our kidneys, but I have seen data recently that shows acute kidney injury is far less damaging than they first feared.  My biggest long term concern for now is pulmonary remodeling from unchecked viral immune response. We could see a significant subset of people with reduced pulmonary function but that remains to be seen. Lung tissue is pretty good about healing unless permanently scarred. 

Yes, this virus is newish and weird but it's still a virus from a family that has infected humans forever and we haven't changed physiologically in thousands of years except from our poor lifestyle choices. The potential is much scarier for a different type of disease that could alter humanity but Covid ain't it on a macro evolutionary scale.  We certainly can demand a better infrastructure to our public health and infectious response entities but besides being healthy, there's not much else for you or I to do.  I refuse to go through life scared of it.

 

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Sure, but with so many unknowns with regard to long-term damage to key organs, possible DVT, clots, as well as the neurological effects that seem to take a long time to recover from (taste/smell), it isn't worth rolling the dice in my opinion. Your own opinion above, as a doctor, still contains phrases like "I have seen data recently." The phrase "could see a significant subset of people with reduced pulmonary function but that remains to be seen" is in and of itself extremely concerning given the state of health care in this nation. Our health care system, and the health of people in this country in general, is already strained enough through obesity and other preexisting conditions. We don't have a financial system or health care infrastructure in place to take on more chronic conditions. We already needed a couple million more nurses by the second half of this decade, for example, and that was before COVID. I mean, hell, just think about the coming nightmare of utilization review lawsuits and vicarious liability. What the hell have capitation arrangements looked like over the last 6 months? Imagine what DRGs are going to look like over the next two years. This might not be huge on an evolutionary scale, but on the health care system scale, this was an absolute bomb. We need to mitigate that damage as much as possible so the system can get its arms wrapped around it.

Circling back to the effects of the disease, people wanting to keep their kids out of school and insisting on people wearing masks is hardly "going through life scared of" COVID. It's managing the situation. You're obviously one of the few medical experts in the room that is Surly, there's no doubt about that, and I'm not saying that with any sarcasm whatsoever. That being said, the level of concern that people have about this is on entirely different level than say, a pregnant woman who is unnecessarily nervous because she ate some cold deli meat that was a day after expiration. We know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, what the odds are for a pregnant women having complications from listeria or kids bringing home the flu. We still don't fully understand COVID-19 and I think that merits significantly more caution than what some are willing to concede.

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  On 8/5/2020 at 3:22 AM, Johnny Sack said:

Is an 18 year-old with Covid at a higher or lower risk of death than one with the flu?

I have been negged by a lot of people for posting lower risk.  Am I wrong?  Or are they wrong?

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To close to call? A shitty thing to troll the Texas-only thread with and certainly nothing worth calling people dumbfucks over.

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Yeah, I know we're an anonymous message board that's mostly banter and bullshit, but there are deep experts on this board in myriad topics.  That Johnny Sack literally, in real life, honestly thinks he knows more than ChitownDoc or Traumababe or a dozen other frontline/scientist folks is hilarious to me.  It's a perfect encapsulation of what's wrong with our nation right now.  I know Dr. Beeper doesn't like my posts, and I have him on ignore, but I sure as shit take very seriously everything he has to say on Oil.  

I heard this morning on a national news channel that our nation's plan for this virus is...and I quote directly..."This thing's going away.  It will go away like things go away."

I was going to get "This too shall pass" tattooed on me as a reminder to stay positive, but I think I'm going to get "It will go away like things go away."  It's more eloquent, you know?  Plus, I figure the tattoo artist could use the extra cash for the extra letters.  

Back on topic---Our ISD's Board had an emergency meeting last night to discuss this latest maneuver by TEA and Paxton to usurp the Governor and local health officials.  they have doubled down their "fuck you, see you in court" and launched an online sign-up for picking up your supplies and tablet and wave hello at a distance to your child's teacher.  We're about to use children as pawns, what a proud day for the Great State of Texas.  

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Yesterday's Travis County case breakdown by age bracket. Total cases back in the "new normal" of 200-300/day. Spike again vs their share of total cases in the 1-19 groups.  Accounting for ~18% of yesterday's cases vs ~10% of total cases.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/4 vs 8/3 1 16 34 57 46 48 33 26 8 4 273
% of Daily Change 0.37% 5.86% 12.45% 20.88% 16.85% 17.58% 12.09% 9.52% 2.93% 1.47%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.80% 7.83% 26.84% 21.69% 16.39% 11.70% 6.48% 3.22% 2.53%   21,822
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  On 8/5/2020 at 3:22 AM, Johnny Sack said:
Is an 18 year-old with Covid at a higher or lower risk of death than one with the flu?
I have been negged by a lot of people for posting lower risk.  Am I wrong?  Or are they wrong?
I didn't neg you, but people are doing it because you've been downplaying this from the get go.

You out of my state yet?
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That's great news if we are finding treatments for COVID-induced respiratory failure - from the linked article:

  Quote

According to the report, a 54-year-old man who contracted COVID-19 while being treated for rejection of a double lung transplant came off a ventilator within four days. According to the report, similar results were seen in more than 15 patients.

The drug appeared to have rapidly cleared pneumonitis findings on an X-ray, improved blood oxygen and a 50% or greater average decrease in laboratory markers associated with COVID-19 inflammation, according to the press release.

"No other antiviral agent has demonstrated rapid recovery from viral infection and demonstrated laboratory inhibition of viral replication," said Prof. Jonathan Javitt, CEO and Chairman of NeuroRx. "We are conducting placebo-controlled trials to see whether the observations made in the case-control and open-label studies will be confirmed for less ill patients with COVID-19-related respiratory failure. Our independent Data Monitoring Committee will be conducting an interim analysis of these data later this month."

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That's pretty incredible that someone who just had a double lung transplant was able to beat COVID and get off a ventilator with this drug. Interesting that it's still in phase 2/3 clinical trials but being given on an emergency basis. Here's hoping the good news stays good

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  On 8/5/2020 at 3:20 PM, Rip76 said:
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Would be amusing if we are saved by ED drugs.  

 

  Quote

Aviptadil in combination with phentolamine and sexual stimulation, is expected to provide a new and effective alternative for erectile dysfunction (ED) patients 

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https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11566015/

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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:09 PM, UT_OB1 said:

Would be amusing if we are saved by ED drugs.  

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11566015/

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Well turnabout is fair play....Viagra was supposed to be a hypertension drug.

 

So since this is the thread I presume for philosophical/hypotheticals.    Let's say for a moment by late 2020 this thing is proven out BUT it is only shown to work say 60-70% of the time.  That is to say 30-40% being treated would still be in for either fighting off or dying from Covid19 the "old fashioned way" as for whatever reason that isn't germane to this hypothetical the drug just didn't take for them.

What's the general approach then? Covid19 is still there, but 65% of the time it gets to really sick/hospitalized/intensive care cases we can pretty quickly put it to bed.  Deaths and serious hospitalizations still very much exist but have been cut dramatically.  

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  On 8/4/2020 at 8:37 PM, Newdoc said:

That's a small short term study and the damage has not been studied out for morbidity and mortality. The actual heart damage does not appear to be that significant for most but makes a nice scary headline.

I wouldn't freak about any of the stupid news headlines until your doctor freaks out about the stupid headlines. I can tell you the hypervigilance by the layman in reading the headlines is driving doctors crazy.  Our 24 hour news cycle coupled with every dweeby ego driven researcher wanting their moment of glory or misplaced catastrophe warning has given the populace a huge generalized anxiety disorder. Your not going to change anything by worrying about every nuance of Covid 19. For example, Covid was going to knock out all our kidneys, but I have seen data recently that shows acute kidney injury is far less damaging than they first feared.  My biggest long term concern for now is pulmonary remodeling from unchecked viral immune response. We could see a significant subset of people with reduced pulmonary function but that remains to be seen. Lung tissue is pretty good about healing unless permanently scarred. 

Yes, this virus is newish and weird but it's still a virus from a family that has infected humans forever and we haven't changed physiologically in thousands of years except from our poor lifestyle choices. The potential is much scarier for a different type of disease that could alter humanity but Covid ain't it on a macro evolutionary scale.  We certainly can demand a better infrastructure to our public health and infectious response entities but besides being healthy, there's not much else for you or I to do.  I refuse to go through life scared of it.

 

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Sorry for the long cat quote but this is really solid and I empathize with reading non- experts opinions on something you clearly know a lot about.  
 

The anxiety around this disease comes from the wildly different outcomes from something so contagious.  I found out this morning that a coworker lost his dad and uncle in south Texas to it.  Neither one a model of health but not “sick” before Covid either.  
 

I’ve had three employees that have contracted it, caused us to clean and quarantine, and none of the three had anything but mild symptoms.

 

So from a risk management standpoint, it’s unlikely healthy kids will face a bad outcome, but they can spread it.

Long way of saying  thanks for the perspective.  The hurr durr it’s the flu crowd isn’t worth engaging and we have figure out how to live with it but it’s much better to understand real risks than speculate.

 

For what it’s worth our pediatrician said she was not concerned about them going back once the case rate drops to a safe level and everyone wears masks.

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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:09 PM, UT_OB1 said:

Would be amusing if we are saved by ED drugs.  

 

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11566015/

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From Wikipedia,

"Aviptadil is an analog of vasoactive intestinal polypeptide for the treatment of erectile dysfunction. Geneva-based Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG RFLB.S has a patent for RLF-100, a synthetic form of a natural peptide that protects the lung."

Why does the synthetic version of lung-protecting peptide fix ED?  And more importantly, who thought "Hey, maybe lung peptides might make my dick hard!"  It makes a lot more sense that it works on COVID.

Also, how do I buy stonks for Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG?

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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:32 PM, Surly Bevo said:

Well turnabout is fair play....Viagra was supposed to be a hypertension drug.

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And minoxidil (Rogaine) was first for ulcers, then for blood pressure, too.  

I'm thinking all health problems may be caused by the same exact issue. Grandma told us it would make hair grow on our palms and the hair on our heads fall out.

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  On 8/5/2020 at 5:41 PM, Liquor and Poker said:

From Wikipedia,

"Aviptadil is an analog of vasoactive intestinal polypeptide for the treatment of erectile dysfunction. Geneva-based Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG RFLB.S has a patent for RLF-100, a synthetic form of a natural peptide that protects the lung."

Why does the synthetic version of lung-protecting peptide fix ED?  And more importantly, who thought "Hey, maybe lung peptides might make my dick hard!"  It makes a lot more sense that it works on COVID.

Also, how do I buy stonks for Relief Therapeutics Holdings AG?

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I posted on the stonks thread, but if I found the correct ticker, they went from .03ish yesterday to .2ish today.  You're late to the party.  

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Posted in the school thread, but Thrall ISD in Williamson County is opening up on Monday, face-to-face.  Only 750 kids, but will be a test case.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/education/schools/thrall-isd-reopens-school-buildings-august-10-one-of-first-central-texas-school-districts/269-78065b94-54cd-4af3-96c0-db74177c33ef

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:32 PM, Surly Bevo said:

So since this is the thread I presume for philosophical/hypotheticals.    Let's say for a moment by late 2020 this thing is proven out BUT it is only shown to work say 60-70% of the time.  That is to say 30-40% being treated would still be in for either fighting off or dying from Covid19 the "old fashioned way" as for whatever reason that isn't germane to this hypothetical the drug just didn't take for them.

What's the general approach then? Covid19 is still there, but 65% of the time it gets to really sick/hospitalized/intensive care cases we can pretty quickly put it to bed.  Deaths and serious hospitalizations still very much exist but have been cut dramatically.  

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Get everybody to wear a fucking mask when out of their house, and wash their hands, and we should be good for opening up a lot of stuff?

And paint a big red "A" on the forehead of everybody hanging out at bars, with something that won't wear off for months?

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  On 8/5/2020 at 6:45 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Posted in the school thread, but Thrall ISD in Williamson County is opening up on Monday, face-to-face.  Only 750 kids, but will be a test case.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/education/schools/thrall-isd-reopens-school-buildings-august-10-one-of-first-central-texas-school-districts/269-78065b94-54cd-4af3-96c0-db74177c33ef

 

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Pretty sure that Keene ISD in Johnson County opened in person this week as well.

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  On 8/5/2020 at 3:19 PM, Chewbacca said:

I didn't neg you, but people are doing it because you've been downplaying this from the get go.

You out of my state yet?

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I’m in my state since we own property here, but thankfully my second state Colorado has low property taxes.  I typically spend most of summer in Colorado.  And rest of year in Texas.  About to hike the Ute then have a very wet dinner at Ajax.  Half of Houston is in Aspen.  Walk around the rugby park in the evening and see.  

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  On 8/5/2020 at 8:14 PM, Johnny Sack said:

I’m in my state since we own property here, but thankfully my second state Colorado has low property taxes.  I typically spend most of summer in Colorado.  And rest of year in Texas.  About to hike the Ute then have a very wet dinner at Ajax.  Half of Houston is in Aspen.  Walk around the rugby park in the evening and see.  

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You pay Colorado income taxes?  Didn't think so.  You're a Texan. 

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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:13 PM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

there's still a handful of complete idiots comparing this thing to the flu. unbelievable.

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If you’re referring to me, that’s a bullshit straw man.  There are more than a handful of idiots claiming that for teenagers the Chinavirus is more dangerous than the flu and something to be concerned about.  
 

It is dangerous for some.  It isn’t for teenagers.  Deaths from babies to college student are tiny for a country or 350 million.  
 

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  On 8/5/2020 at 4:32 PM, Chewbacca said:
  On 8/5/2020 at 4:13 PM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:
there's still a handful of complete idiots comparing this thing to the flu. unbelievable.
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And these are the people visiting CO this summer. I'm sure he's super vigilant about mask use and social distancing.

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Another straw man.  I’ve not once said it was equivalent to the flu.  Not once.  And I’ve worn a mask in public indoor spaces since March.  I have said it’s a nothingburger for kids and teens.  And that is true.  
 

You aren’t interested in an honest discussion because you and Hollywood only misrepresent what I have said and then knock down easy straw mans.  Neither of you are particularly bright.  But at least be honest.  

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