COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Telegraph_it 3359]

2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

2 hours ago, LebongJames said:

In Austin we finally dropped under 300 hospitalizations today. 106 in ICU and 73 on vents all lows since the peak.

Good to see you guys getting your shit together. We've got 203 people hospitalized in the entire state.

What state?

Just kidding. You have let us know many times. That number is so low because you all are pricks and won't let us poor Texans feel welcome.

[atomheartbevo 89834]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/state-to-allow-limited-visitation-at-nursing-homes-long-term-care-facilities/

Quote

Families kept apart from loved ones in nursing homes and long-term care facilities will now be able to see them again.

The Texas Health and Human Services Commission announced limited visitation rules for those facilities Thursday. Due to the new rules, the commission is also issuing more emergency measures for nursing homes to help stop the spread of COVID-19.

Quote

Physical contact between residents and visitors is not allowed in any facility. Here’s a further breakdown of the rules.

Nursing homes

Only outdoor visits will be allowed, the commission says. 

Before anyone can visit, the commission says nursing homes must meet these criteria:

• No confirmed positive COVID-19 cases in staff in the last 14 days
• No active positive cases in residents
• Any facility previously experiencing an outbreak that has fully recovered must be adequately staffed and following adequate infection control procedures
• Facility staff are being tested for COVID-19 weekly

Rules for window visits and parades will be posted on the HHSC website.

Quote

Long-term care facilities

Both limited indoor and outdoor visitation is allowed, the commission says. 

Before long-term care facilities can hold limited visitation, they must meet these requirements:

• No confirmed COVID-19 positive staff in last 14 days
• No active positive cases in residents
• Adequate staffing to facilitate visitation in compliance with infection control requirements
• Use of plexiglass as a safety barrier for indoor visitation to prevent spread of COVID-19

Quote

With the opening of visitation, nursing homes must follow new enhanced emergency rules. 

• Each nursing home must have a COVID-19 response plan that includes designated staff to work with groups of residents who have tested positive, and staff should not change designation from one day to another, unless required to maintain adequate staffing for a group
• All nursing homes must screen all residents, staff and people who come to the facility in accordance with specified criteria, and each resident must be screened at least three times a day for signs or symptoms of COVID-19
• Each facility must have plans for obtaining and maintaining a two-week supply of PPE and resident recovery plans for continuing care when a resident recovers from COVID-19

 

[utee94 15868]

4 hours ago, DDD Dad said:

Texas was contact tracing? Who knew?

I knew, since I was contact-traced in late May.  I posted it here on surly multiple times too, on the original DT thread and on the medical thread, so anyone reading those, also knew.

I can't speculate as to how widespread or effective the tracing has been, but I can certainly confirm that it has been occurring. 

 

 

 

[Chewbacca 7787]

What state?
Just kidding. You have let us know many times. That number is so low because you all are pricks and won't let us poor Texans feel welcome.

I welcome folks like troph who come here and respect us and what we are trying to do. Johnny Sack, not so much.

[Gatorubet 30323]

Wonder if the Census was paying better, hence the difficulty in filling tracing positions.

Kid’s buddy has that gig. $20 per hour, your own schedule

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

I knew, since I was contact-traced in late May.  I posted it here on surly multiple times too, on the original DT thread and on the medical thread, so anyone reading those, also knew.

I can't speculate as to how widespread or effective the tracing has been, but I can certainly confirm that it has been occurring. 

 

 

 

Please sir, I need you to keep such information to yourself. 

[GRHorn 105]

4 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

The testing rate is interesting but giving you some anecdotal info from a medium sized county, one drive thru testing facility did 1/10 the number of tests this last week as they did 3 weeks ago. Whether that means less people are sick or less are paranoid about the virus, we can’t say.  But what a huge difference. May be seeing that around the state. 

Edited August 7, 2020 by GRHorn

[Hate 20146]

I welcome folks like troph who come here and respect us and what we are trying to do. Johnny Sack, not so much.

He’s said he wears a mask whenever he is out in public. What else would you have him do? Is there something special that he is supposed to do the rest of the world isn’t?

[Chief Ouray 32]

Unlike that other asshole who thinks he owns Colorado. Surly members and other Texans are always welcome in my state.

[XYZ 2154]

3 minutes ago, Chief Ouray said:

Unlike that other asshole who thinks he owns Colorado. Surly members and other Texans are always welcome in my state.

Lou Pai owns Colorado.

[kevwun 15935]

There is absolutely no contact tracing.  Someone is just straight up stealing money.

[Newdoc 3453]

1 minute ago, kevwun said:

There is absolutely no contact tracing.  Someone is just straight up stealing money.

I was called for contact tracing within 2 days of my positive test. All of my personal acquaintances who have been positive have been contacted as well. What are you talking about?

[kevwun 15935]

I think it must vary by county then.  There isn't anything like that being done where I live.  If you are only relying on the positive person and not following up with any of the names they do give you, it's not going to be very effective.  We have an issue here where people who should be quarantining because of direct exposure aren't doing so.

Edited August 7, 2020 by kevwun

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Daily change for Travis County. Good/Bad story in that from a projecting deaths perspective we are seeing a peak in <19 year old cases vs their overall share and a decline in the >60 year old cases compared to their average. Cases still in that 200-300 range each day so well down from their early July peak.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/6 vs 8/5	1	8	26	64	46	35	24	15	9	4	232
% of Daily Change	0.43%	3.45%	11.21%	27.59%	19.83%	15.09%	10.34%	6.47%	3.88%	1.72%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.80%	7.91%	26.82%	21.68%	16.40%	11.67%	6.46%	3.24%	2.50%	22,256

[ChickenSandwich 9855]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Lou Pai owns Colorado.

[utee94 15868]

1 hour ago, Newdoc said:

I was called for contact tracing within 2 days of my positive test. All of my personal acquaintances who have been positive have been contacted as well. What are you talking about?

No kidding.  Not this shit again.

I too was called for contact-tracing.  They actually called multiple times, and when I told them I'd be getting tested, they called back a few days later and I told them I had tested negative, so they had no further need for tracing any of my contacts (which was only my immediate family, anyway).

Edited August 7, 2020 by utee94

[Chewbacca 7787]

He’s said he wears a mask whenever he is out in public. What else would you have him do? Is there something special that he is supposed to do the rest of the world isn’t?

He is not just here with his family. He's here with several families. You know, the type of gatherings that spread the shit out of this thing.

[Planet Houston 4931]

20 minutes ago, utee94 said:

No kidding.  Not this shit again.

I too was called for contact-tracing.  They actually called multiple times, and when I told them I'd be getting tested, they called back a few days later and I told them I had tested negative, so they had no further need for tracing any of my contacts (which was only my immediate family, anyway).

I have taken four tests. I have received zero calls after any of them - including a positive test (turned out to certainly be a false positive). I have lots of friends who have been tested. I haven’t heard of one contact tracing experience. 

[utee94 15868]

3 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

I have taken four tests. I have received zero calls after any of them - including a positive test (turned out to certainly be a false positive). I have lots of friends who have been tested. I haven’t heard of one contact tracing experience. 

I already said I don't know how widespread or effective it is.  But any statement that says it's not being performed at all, is unequivocally false.

[kevwun 15935]

I think there are areas where it isn't being performed at all.

[dcar00 14379]

30 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

I have taken four tests. I have received zero calls after any of them - including a positive test (turned out to certainly be a false positive). I have lots of friends who have been tested. I haven’t heard of one contact tracing experience. 

I've had 5 friends get it and all were contact traced.

[Armybrat 40920]

Maybe someone in the know should generate an update map showing contact tracing by county and frequency in relation to the number of cases.

[Captainant 27833]

10 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Maybe someone in the know should generate an update map showing contact tracing by county and frequency in relation to the number of cases.

[speculation] something tells me the state won't be real forthcoming with that information and will cite some term in the contract as the reason [/speculation]

edit: made more clear I was speculating, based on the past behavior of state of TX decision making process. You're welcome @stone oak

Edited August 7, 2020 by Captainant

[Armybrat 40920]

Well, he does have a point. 
There is no reason to trust everything a State government entity says... and that includes from the top guy, to county & city officials, and throw in school districts (especially AISD).

[Pig Bellmont 8741]

22 hours ago, dcar00 said:

actually the death rate is much lower for older now than it was in March/April in the Northeast shitshow.

Look - you shouldn’t be patting anyone on the back because TX didn’t repeat the specific failures in NY. 1500 people died last week in TX. Oh and schools are opening. 

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, kevwun said:

There is absolutely no contact tracing.  Someone is just straight up stealing money.

 

1 hour ago, kevwun said:

I think there are areas where it isn't being performed at all.

Smart backpedal. 

[kevwun 15935]

Well new info came to light.  I know for certain what others described after I posted that isn't happening where I live.  We had someone test positive at work who exposed lots of folks here.  None of them were contacted by anyone and there was no additional testing.  My mom had a similar incident where she works.  If things like this are happening all over the State, our contact tracing system is worthless.

Edited August 7, 2020 by kevwun

[Hate 20146]

He is not just here with his family. He's here with several families. You know, the type of gatherings that spread the shit out of this thing.

If they have all been social distancing and wearing masks leading up to this visit and continue to do so while there, what is the problem?

[fattyflattie 4638]

28 minutes ago, Hate said:

If they have all been social distancing and wearing masks leading up to this visit and continue to do so while there, what is the problem?

His politics.

[MissingInAction 25206]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

I've had 5 friends get it and all were contact traced.

Damn, sorry to hear that. Just out of curiosity, not playing blame game, were they following all the guidelines, or going about like normal?

[dcar00 14379]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Damn, sorry to hear that. Just out of curiosity, not playing blame game, were they following all the guidelines, or going about like normal?

they were all being careful, mask wearers, no big parties, but I'm sure they were out and about when the restaurants opened to some extent.  one was a husband whose wife has about 50% lung function(bout with pneumonia 5 years ago) but luckily she didn't get it.  the kids didn't get it in 3 of the 5 families.  one guy got it bad(co-worker)

[sunset87 250]

18 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

What state?

Just kidding. You have let us know many times. That number is so low because you all are pricks and won't let us poor Texans feel welcome.

They prefer Californians.

[Chewbacca 7787]

If they have all been social distancing and wearing masks leading up to this visit and continue to do so while there, what is the problem?

Read his posts. He hasn't been. He thinks this is the flu and it's no big deal for kids.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

The data for Texas is showing a little bump in cases that started about a week ago but is now easing.  Is it possible that this was caused by July 4th get-togethers?
If so, that sucks, because it means that an event that causes a spike does not show up in the data for a month.  With that kind of lag, any type of opening plan has to go really really slowly.  Make a change, wait a month, see if you are screwed, make a change, wait a month, see if you are screwed, etc.  I don't think we have the patience for that.

The number of daily tests is dropping, which is curious.  Are people feeling less of a need to get tested, or believing that testing is useless so why do it, or are the labs running out of supplies to process tests?  It would be nice to know the average latency of a test, from request to result, and how that is trending over time.

[gmr548 16617]

I've had 5 friends get it and all were contact traced.

You have five friends?

[Uncle Boobs 1248]

I've had 5 friends get it and all were contact traced.

I contact traced your wife last night.

 

 

 

[Pig Bellmont 8741]

It’s going to get worse 

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[justhookit 4191]

Corpus had a pretty big spike today with 436, I believe 4th or 5th highest day ever but we are still down on rolling 7 day average. Hospitalizations down 25%ish from 2 weeks ago and ICU down a bit. School opening is going to make this a mess again here if they actually do it. 

[BrazilHorn 6636]

Travis County Weekly update of day over day change via stack bar view. You can see a run in a couple of groups (10-19 & 20-29) over past week. If you are looking for death predictability look at top three sections (60+ cohorts) as these three account for 82% of deaths.

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[Cody2422 279]

16 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s going to get worse 

Cumulative graphs are scary.  You should lock yourself in your house

[Message Board User 12396]

 

[atomheartbevo 89834]

Bull Creek and Barton Creek greenbelts open.  With reservations being needed.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/2-austin-greenbelts-are-open-again-starting-saturday/

 

[atomheartbevo 89834]

Abbott extended the disaster declaration for all counties

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/DISASTER_renewing_covid19_disaster_proclamation_IMAGE_08-08-2020.pdf

Quote

Pursuant to his powers as Governor of the State of Texas, Greg Abbott has issued the following:

A proclamation renewing the declaration stating that the novel coronavirus (C OVID-i 9) poses an imminent threat disaster for all counties in Texas.

Could play into the fight with the TEA over start dates.

 

 

[NAVY 6747]

Travis: 122 

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

 

[XYZ 2154]

56 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Bull Creek and Barton Creek greenbelts open.  With reservations being needed.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/2-austin-greenbelts-are-open-again-starting-saturday/

The Barton Creek Greenbelt was closed?

[Wulaw Horn 19153]

9 hours ago, Cody2422 said:

Cumulative graphs are scary.  You should lock yourself in your house

0.025% of the population so far. Serious question- anyone know how many total deaths (all causes) since March and how many we’d normally expect?  

[Judge Roybeanbag 11821]

11 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

0.025% of the population so far. Serious question- anyone know how many total deaths (all causes) since March and how many we’d normally expect?  

About tree fiddle.

[BradInATX 9208]

0.025% of the population so far. Serious question- anyone know how many total deaths (all causes) since March and how many we’d normally expect?  

We've been through the numbers on a couple of threads. There are between 225k and 350k surplus deaths vs an average year so far according to the CDC.