COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Winner.  Winner.  That explains the attire and femAle girth.  Guy lions like he walked out the co-op clearance section though.  Dammit.  This’ll get play for a week considering the physical threats made.  What a fucking asshole.  
please don’t let us find out he’s the Anchorage chapter president of Texas Exes 

That explains everything.  High around 60, low in the upper 40s, shitload of Texans and other non-Alaskans.  Massive sense of entitlement.

[texas08 1,599]

Poor bastard?

No, fuck him. He’s probably unemployed and nothing will come out of this.

What a fucked up society.

[Bevo 13,827]

First, fuck all of you. I went to Ranch 616 tonight (Saturday night) and it was fucking dead. Went with a friend and there were some hotties and spent some cash, but we closed the place down at 50something years old. Preston, the manager, said they were at capacity. That is fucking lame. Youngs should be ashamed of themselves. Drove home at a ridiculous speed and thought about stopping at Ricks on the way to Cedar Park. I pussed out because of the wife and shit. Wanted to grab the wife and kids and haul ass to our soon to be vacation home in the Rockies. Fuck COVID. Fuck you all. I'm ready to get the party started. Do I really need to wait until 2021? Life is too short.

[Enchubben 5,598]

 

[B00M 6,726]

Citing a Facebook post? I'm sure that's legit

[Captainant 28,400]

28 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

 

LMAO citing a Qanon loon's twitter post citing Facebook as your authoritative source. 

That's just good clean living, those Qanon folks are straight shooters who never are a disinformation distribution hub. 

[kevwun 16,273]

A woman I work with passed away from it last night.  Her sister works in my office also.  She was a very nice person.  She went pretty quickly compared to most cases.  She was only in the hospital for a couple of weeks and was on a ventilator this week.  On Friday they tried to have her breathe on her own and she wasn't doing well enough so they put her pack on the vent.  I think they tried remdesivir and plasma also.

Edited August 30, 2020 by kevwun

[Sawbonz 28,085]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

[Hefeweizen 5,416]

52 minutes ago, kevwun said:

A woman I work with passed away from it last night.  Her sister works in my office also.  She was a very nice person.  She went pretty quickly compared to most cases.  She was only in the hospital for a couple of weeks and was on a ventilator this week.  On Friday they tried to have her breathe on her own and she wasn't doing well enough so they put her pack on the vent.  I think they tried remdesivir and plasma also.

I’m very sorry to hear that.  The ventilator seems to be an indicator of impending doom.  All the people I know of who went on eventually died, granted not a large sample size but still.  

[The Royal We 3,090]

Negged chubby for posting blatant BS. Pull your head out of your ass. 

[mdmost 43,852]

9 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

God damnit which one of you is this?
 

 

T-shirt fan

[Bevo 13,827]

[Enchubben 5,598]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

Citing a Facebook post? I'm sure that's legit

well twitter actually, but regardless here is the CDC table.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
 

 

[B00M 6,726]

21 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

well twitter actually, but regardless here is the CDC table.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
 

 

 

I thought you posted that for lulz..? So you were citing a Tweet that cited a Facebook post? 

The link to the CDC data immediately disproves this bogus claim so I will choose to believe you're joking.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,964]

Hate that the video cut off when it was getting good

[Scary Stranger 1,723]

12 minutes ago, B00M said:

 

I thought you posted that for lulz..? So you were citing a Tweet that cited a Facebook post? 

The link to the CDC data immediately disproves this bogus claim so I will choose to believe you're joking.

" For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death." 

Isn't that what the tweet was saying?

[South Austin 53,155]

42 minutes ago, Bevo said:

It’s hard to tell, but is that glass stemless?

[Captainant 28,400]

 

i guess I can't be too hard on chubbster - he was just blindly repeating what his GOD EMPEROR told him to believe. Sorry for the CR-adjacent post, but I'm just calling bullshit when I smell it. 

[Neonmoon 38,130]

2 hours ago, Enchubben said:

 

Haha holy shit. You posted a crazy bullshit QAnon FB post as proof of something. A post that is so intellectually stupid it was immediately disproven by the same data it referenced, but morons like you believe and share because it fits your narrative. 

[Surly Bevo 25,659]

The deal is that the data DOES say that in the vast majority of Covid19 deaths there are other issues in play...specifically 2.6 per death so it seems.  So tell us fucking something we didn't already know.  That tweet was trying to craft that data into some ominous quiet changing of the narrative....when it's the same fucking narrative we have had from the beginning, "old people and people with other problems are pretty at-risk"

Here let me take a little real evidence....sprinkle a little crack on it and present a completely new fact pattern than what the real evidence is trying to tell us.

Edited August 30, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Sawbonz 28,085]

1 hour ago, Enchubben said:

well twitter actually, but regardless here is the CDC table.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
 

 

That shows that increased age and comorbid conditions are risk factors for increased mortality from Covid-19. Is it your assertion that all those people died from old age and / or chronic conditions coincidentally when they contracted COVID-19?

 

 

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

LMAO citing a Qanon loon's twitter post citing Facebook as your authoritative source. 

That's just good clean living, those Qanon folks are straight shooters who never are a disinformation distribution hub. 

1 hour ago, Neonmoon said:

Haha holy shit. You posted a crazy bullshit QAnon FB post as proof of something. A post that is so intellectually stupid it was immediately disproven by the same data it referenced, but morons like you believe and share because it fits your narrative. 

Anybody citing fucking Qanon sources should have their avatar changed to a TexAgs logo, because those motherfuckers are full-on into the Qanon stuff, complete with the stuff about Trump is going to lock up Hillary, save us from aliens, rescue thousands of kids from a podunk pizza joint basement, etc.

 

[Sawbonz 28,085]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Anybody citing fucking Qanon sources should have their avatar changed to a TexAgs logo, because those motherfuckers are full-on into the Qanon stuff, complete with the stuff about Trump is going to lock up Hillary, save us from aliens, rescue thousands of kids from a podunk pizza joint basement, etc.

 

Umm

[Guest Lobo]

this little Mel Q'Anon broad.  I know she's a scientific hero to many of you on these Covid-19 threads.  But she looks like and thinks like if Jamie-Lynn Sigler had an extra chromosome.  

I know this site is populated by people too educated to be part of the QAnon movement.  But there are plenty of people on here that believe that they espouse.  

A retweet can't validate stupidity.  I cannot believe some of you walked the halls of the University of Texas and entertain notions like this.  

[kevwun 16,273]

At this point, I personally know 5-6 people who have had to be hospitalized because of Covid and one has died.  I think most people know someone who has been in the hospital by now.  There's no hope for people who still think it's a hoax.  They are broken mentally and there's no fixing it.

Edited August 30, 2020 by kevwun

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

25 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I know this site is populated by people too educated to be part of the QAnon movement.  But there are plenty of people on here that believe that they espouse.  

I doubt it's that many.  It doesn't take much digging to realize it's part-prank originally created by 4chan, and party money-making scheme by a bunch of Alex Jones wannabes.

It's so telling that TexAgs, one of the top aggy sports sites, explicitly endorses the Qanon idiots.  Next time Billy Luigi is on the radio, somebody should call in and start asking him Qanon stuff. 

Of course, he runs TexAgs, so it'd be perfectly fitting if he believes in a 4chan prank.

Edited August 30, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[MissingInAction 25,478]

At this point there is no hope in regards to those in denial. These types of people would have to have their faces literally on fire before they believed their own home was burning down around them

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

Some shenanigans in the Travis Co reporting from yesterday with only a net of 9 new cases showing. This is largely stemming from a day over day drop in three different age group categories. I am not going to post today's day over day compares as frankly I think there is some noise in the data.

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

23 deaths in Travis County last week, with a whopping 9 of them coming from the 70-79 year old age grouping. Still ~82% of all deaths for Travis County have been 60 years old or higher with 311 of the 381 deaths accounted for from the three age brackets comprising 60+. (this is nearly identical to the USA overall)

[troph 25,095]

Sorry this is the no politics thread, my mistake.

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

14 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

God damnit which one of you is this?
 

 

Welp, guess what's trending on twitter under "Longhorn".

[mdmost 43,852]

8badmofo31 lives in Alaska?

 

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

Received a survey today and it said that in order for sports to happen (this might just be for middle school) that the city of Austin would have to be at "Stage 2"

That is <5 hospital admits a day. Travis county hasn't been there on a single day since May 31st. For a rolling 7 day avg Travis County hasn't been there since March 17th through March 23rd.

No idea if High School sports in Austin face the same criteria or not. What I can say for middle (at least O'Henry which is from whence survey originated) is that there is NO way middle school sports will happen with the Stage 2 requirements.

-edit - just received response that the Stage 2 requirement applies to High School as well as Middle School. Nuts. Just do not see how Austin gets back there any time soon.

Edited August 31, 2020 by BrazilHorn
Received update

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

Stage 2 is less than 10, not 5.  We are creeping down there since we are at Stage 3, which is 10-39.

https://www.austintexas.gov/news/austin-public-healths-risk-based-guidelines-chart-revised

Won’t matter though.  Labor Day is coming up, so I expect we will be back at stage 4 a few weeks later.   

[smoky 842]

I thought we had moved to the more nebulous "positivity rating".

edit - yeah, the reason Brazil is thinking of 5, is that it's 5% positivity rating.  Atom was remembering the old metric of less than 10 hospitalizations per day for Stage 2.

also, travis county wants to make sure that it's under the metric for all ethnic groups before moving stages.  So we could be under 5% positivity rating for a while before they officially move.

 

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by smoky

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

1 hour ago, smoky said:

Atom was remembering the old metric of less than 10 hospitalizations per day for Stage 2.

It's what's still on the COA's website.  If it's changed, my apologies.

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

23 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

Alaska

Bingo.   Anchorage.

Spoiler

 

 

spoiler for autoplay - it's the same video posted earlier.

Best comments:

 "It's traumatic when your medical exemption card that you got from facebook isn't actually a thing."

"God dammit, of course this guy had to throw on every single piece of UT gear he owns before heading to Walmart to throw his tantrum."

"As an OU fan I’m just pleased both sides of the river are insane :)"

Quote

I have this theory, growing up in Oklahoma where the OU/OSU and anti-Texas fandom can be absolutely rabid.

The amount of items you own bedazzled with university logos is inversely related to the amount of time you spent at said university

Graduated from said university? Might have a coffee mug or an old T-shirt or hoodie or something. Went but didn’t graduate? Definitely some car decals and tshirts and a hat and season tickets to the football games. Didn’t go but will defend their honor with your life? You have U mud flaps and beltbuckles and shoelaces and bedazzled sweatpants and gloves and hats and a big flag flapping from the back of your truck.

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

Here is chart I saw that led me to believe it is hospitalizations vs positivity rate etc. Came from statesman from May 28th so it may have been superseded.

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

Looks like it was superseded to this new chart which takes the ability to move to Stage 2 from Stage 3 from <5 hospitalizations to <10. This hasn't happened since the end of May. Most recent 7 day rolling is 18.8 admits. Be interesting to see how Eanes handles it as I cannot see them not playing, but several of their games are against AISD schools.

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

Travis County still letting the 9 new cases stand from Saturday. Yesterday was only 118. Fingers crossed tomorrow's typical "true up" doesn't blow the streak of <200 days which currently stands at 9 days in a row. I do worry how often an age bucket drops in count day over day. Makes me wonder if TCAD has some junior analyst just "fast fingering" the data in. Considering number of decisions based on this data it makes you wonder. To my earlier posts around AISD and the need to be at Stage 2 (<10 admits rolling 7 day). Through 8/26 Travis Co had a 15% hospitalization rate (admits into cases). So from 118 cases yesterday I would expect to see 17.7 (guess what there were 17 admits yesterday).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 8/30 vs 8/29	0	1	2	35	25	27	22	6	1	-1	118
% of Daily Change	0.00%	0.85%	1.69%	29.66%	21.19%	22.88%	18.64%	5.08%	0.85%	-0.85%
% of Total Cases	0.48%	2.94%	8.04%	26.72%	21.53%	16.40%	11.58%	6.62%	3.27%	2.42%	26,434

[Newdoc 3,508]

It will be a looong time before Travis county gets that admit rolling average down that far. Good luck. It will take a big dip in 40+ population to achieve that.

And do they differentiate those admited because of Covid vs those who happen to have Covid (e.g. asymptomatic pregant lady in labor)?

[BrazilHorn 6,794]

2 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

It will be a looong time before Travis county gets that admit rolling average down that far. Good luck. It will take a big dip in 40+ population to achieve that.

And do they differentiate those admited because of Covid vs those who happen to have Covid (e.g. asymptomatic pregant lady in labor)?

Not sure how they will handle multiple illnesses in someone in terms of ranking them for admissions. If the 15% admit rate holds (which is avg going back to 3/12)

Travis county would have to be at ~65 cases/day for 7 straight days in order for the hospitalization admits to be <10 (this would be 9.75 @ 65 cases/day)

The 65 cases a day hasn't happened on a 7 day average since June 8th. Travis county hasn't had a single day below 65 cases (I am not counting the "9" from Saturday as there is some weird shit going on there) since June 7th.

So basically if you had hopes for fall sports in AISD, I just cannot see anyway that this happens under current requirements.

 

[DalTxHornFan 3,130]

All of these metrics to justify the continued clampdown defy logic.

There are currently 787 active CV-19 cases in Travis County.

Travis County has a current population of around 1,274,000.

That works out to about 0.00618%.  Yet, somehow our betters at City of Austin and Travis County have determined that we all need to "Stay Home. Work Safe." until December 15, 2020?  I don't get it. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travis_County,_Texas

[South Austin 53,155]

17 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

That works out to about 0.00618%.  Yet, somehow our betters at City of Austin and Travis County have determined that we all need to "Stay Home. Work Safe." until December 15, 2020?  I don't get it. 

One valid answer - they're not ready to lighten up just yet with UT student arrivals, the upcoming Labor Day weekend, Longhorn football, etc.  But I'm just guessing at a rationalization for governmental decision-making.

Edited August 31, 2020 by South Austin
I'm a god, not the God.

[Newdoc 3,508]

34 minutes ago, South Austin said:

governmental decision-making.

Yes, it’s very Californiaesque.

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

Longer version

 

[kevwun 16,273]

Schools opening and labor day are going to lead to a bigger spike than last time.  They city is being sensible.  Or they can wait until the hospitals fill back up and lots more folks have died.

[Newdoc 3,508]

24 minutes ago, kevwun said:

Schools opening and labor day are going to lead to a bigger spike than last time. 

[bolverk 30,242]

2 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

The 65 cases a day hasn't happened on a 7 day average since June 8th. Travis county hasn't had a single day below 65 cases (I am not counting the "9" from Saturday as there is some weird shit going on there) since June 7th.

June 8 was about one week before all hell broke loose on our local caseload. Given Labor Day and back-to-school, I can see the rationale for some hesitation since we've already set the precedent for a huge leap from such a small number if we get sloppy.