COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Chewbacca 7,827]

How absurd they are

Care to be a little more specific?

[Guest Lobo]

44 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

That's a lotta straw men. You're gonna start a fire.

In many languages, many means three or more.  So too many, in maths, means four.  If there aren’t four Texans with that mentality, I’ll give you some football tickets.  

[BrazilHorn 6,795]

Here is Travis County 7 day  admit rate avg. view across a handful of dates since March. For those who are interested in sports at AISD in fall, the rolling 7 day will need to be <10 for a couple of weeks for them to pull trigger on allowing sports etc. Currently at 17.85

[Anastasis 23,702]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

That's a lotta straw men. You're gonna start a fire.

When reading a lobo post that includes the word "Texas" or "Texans" you must understand that he has some serious psychological hang ups about not being a native Texan.

I like your posts generally Lobo, just don't understand why you feel the need to shit on Texans incessantly.  It's OK if you are a yankee, we are an accepting people down here. 

[Surly Bevo 25,660]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It's OK if you are a yankee, we are an accepting people down here. 

whispers.....but not really

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I like your posts generally Lobo

Ditto. 90% of his posts are solid and I upvote. 10% are pure hate/shit on things.

[Biff Tannen 46,063]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here is Travis County 7 day  admit rate avg. view across a handful of dates since March. For those who are interested in sports at AISD in fall, the rolling 7 day will need to be <10 for a couple of weeks for them to pull trigger on allowing sports etc. Currently at 17.85

Good god, was that spike just from people being morons on Memorial Weekend?

[BrazilHorn 6,795]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Good god, was that spike just from people being morons on Memorial Weekend?

Combo of Memorial Day, 4th of July & bars reopening.

Got as high as 78 admits in a single day on July 15th. Was a really bad run there for a while. I just grabbed some representative sample dates so the chart wouldn't be so crowded. It got bad there for awhile.

Other good news for Travis co though is total hospitalizations is now only at 113 which is the lowest since June 13th.

Things are moving in right direction. Just need people to hold it together and wear masks, wash hands etc

[Anastasis 23,702]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Good god, was that spike just from people being morons on Memorial Weekend?

APH hasn't been particularly forthcoming with the results of their contact tracing. Mixture of Reopening + refusal in some quarters to wear masks + large gatherings from Memorial day to mid june is reasonable explanation imo. Mask mandates kicked in at peak in July. 

[Hate 20,232]

45 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

When reading a lobo post that includes the word "Texas" or "Texans" you must understand that he has some serious psychological hang ups about not being a native Texan.

I like your posts generally Lobo, just don't understand why you feel the need to shit on Texans incessantly.  It's OK if you are a yankee, we are an accepting people down here. 

 

[crash_davis 23,465]

21 hours ago, landman said:

My son told us yesterday their were over 70 positives at Hardin last week and they are sending girls home.

 

21 hours ago, Hate said:

Should they just isolate them in their rooms for 10 days? That seems like a better deal since they most likely won’t get sick anyway. Of course, I can’t imagine being stuck in a dorm room for 10 days. I’d go crazier.

Not sure who is sending whom home? I know of one girl who got covid and UT quarantined her in a hotel just north of campus. She's in isolation. Fed 3 meals a day, nurses come by to check. She's allowed out of her room 2 times a day for 10 mins each time. She's at the hotel for at least 10 days or 3 days after fever breaks, whichever is longer.

I did hear the story of the Pikes kicking out a pledge because he tested positive and notified the school. Supposedly the instructions are if you get covid, just isolate and don't tell the school. The fear is that UT can track activities back to fraternity parties/gatherings and punish the fraternity. Heard from my daughter whose roommate's bf is roommates with another Pike pledge.

Edited September 2, 2020 by crash_davis

[Hate 20,232]

Heard from my daughter whose roommate's bf is roommates with another Pike pledge.

Thank you, Simone.

[crash_davis 23,465]

[crash_davis 23,465]

7 minutes ago, Hate said:

 

Thank you, Simone.

 

when i typed that sentence i was thinking some asshole is going call me out and reference 31 flavors. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

2 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

5 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

How absurd they are

Care to be a little more specific?

Not here, unfortunately. 

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here is Travis County 7 day  admit rate avg. view across a handful of dates since March. For those who are interested in sports at AISD in fall, the rolling 7 day will need to be <10 for a couple of weeks for them to pull trigger on allowing sports etc. Currently at 17.85

[Chewbacca 7,827]

2 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Not here, unfortunately. 

Then why bring it up?

[mdmost 43,853]

Dallas County went from red to orange today. So we got that going for us, which is nice. 

[crash_davis 23,465]

Just now, Chewbacca said:

Then why bring it up?

Cause he's not Hollywood Colt. If he were DefinitelyHollywoodColt, he would not have, brought it up, that is.

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Ditto. 90% of his posts are solid and I upvote. 10% are pure hate/shit on things.

You, alright?!?  I learned it by watching you! 

Yeah, I could have substituted a different group, it's just that texans' behavior during this pandemic literally effect my life and those of my family. 
I'll go back to pithy wit again.  I'm working on a new set, mostly about soup.

I mean, how do we not yet have a meme with Jerry and Kenny Bania asks him to go out to dinner and then a riot.  And Jerry says, "No, this is it Kenny, the soup is the riot!"  

[bolverk 30,245]

6 hours ago, Anastasis said:

10-19 and 40-49 need to get shut shit together. 

A bunch of the 40-49 cohort might be the parents of the 10-19 group.

[crash_davis 23,465]

Just now, bolverk said:

A bunch of the 40-49 cohort might be the parents of the 10-19 group.

one is of a product of facebook where everything is a lie or a hoax, the other believes they are invincible and have a good given right to be idiots.

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

You, alright?!?  I learned it by watching you! 

Lobo was angry that day my friends, like an old man trying to return soup at a deli!

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,439]

34 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

when i typed that sentence i was thinking some asshole is going call me out and reference 31 flavors. 

Surly gonna surly.

[Skipper 6,406]

32 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Dallas County went from red to orange today. So we got that going for us, which is nice. 

Saw that.  And yesterday's data report continues to show cases/hospitalizations have continued to fall off a cliff.  Will be interesting to see if a bump by end of this month with Labor Day + some schools reopening in person on Tuesday (I know DISD isn't but RISD is).  My kids start preschool next week.  I don't know if the temp checks, hand washing, etc. they are requiring will reduce the COVID since most kids that age are asymptomatic but hoping it cuts down on all the other shit they bring home.

[BradInATX 9,208]

I feel like I need a hot take related to the consistent dropping of our numbers over the last month but I haven't decided whether to go with mask mandates or that the "we only need 20% to get herd immunity" crowd is on to something. I guess I can just go back and forth depending on who I want to piss off on any given day.

[dcar00 14,907]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I feel like I need a hot take related to the consistent dropping of our numbers over the last month but I haven't decided whether to go with mask mandates or that the "we only need 20% to get herd immunity" crowd is on to something. I guess I can just go back and forth depending on who I want to piss off on any given day.

why not both?

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

Then why bring it up?

To make fun of libertarians and myself.

[dcbc 14,643]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I feel like I need a hot take related to the consistent dropping of our numbers over the last month but I haven't decided whether to go with mask mandates or that the "we only need 20% to get herd immunity" crowd is on to something. I guess I can just go back and forth depending on who I want to piss off on any given day.

I'm no scientician, but I'd go with mask mandates and a seemingly high level of compliance in conjunction with a lot of major chains requiring and enforcing it, i.e. WalMart. 

Am I correct that the 20% infection for herd immunity is related to the idea that a pretty good percentage has a preexisting, generalized COVID immunity from past infections of related covid-type viruses?  But even if that holds up, are we even close to 20% overall infection, realizing that a lot of people have been unknowingly infected and were asymptomatic? 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Just now, dcbc said:

I'm no scientician, but I'd go with mask mandates and a seemingly high level of compliance in conjunction with a lot of major chains requiring and enforcing it, i.e. WalMart. 

Am I correct that the 20% infection for herd immunity is related to the idea that a pretty good percentage has a preexisting, generalized COVID immunity from past infections of related covid-type viruses?  But even if that holds up, are we even close to 20% overall infection, realizing that a lot of people have been unknowingly infected and were asymptomatic? 

Not sure of all the details but I think the general concept is that we have 10x the number of actual infections as reported cases. Or at least 10x is the number I've seen thrown around on here a lot. And then I guess, yeah, what you said about immunity in other ways from other coronaviruses. 

I don't really buy it but I'd damn sure love for it to be right. 

[dcar00 14,907]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Not sure of all the details but I think the general concept is that we have 10x the number of actual infections as reported cases. Or at least 10x is the number I've seen thrown around on here a lot. And then I guess, yeah, what you said about immunity in other ways from other coronaviruses. 

I don't really buy it but I'd damn sure love for it to be right. 

the CDC threw out an approx 10x number.

[justhookit 4,205]

I could be wrong but I believe the 20% figure people keep throwing out was clarified - in the same article - to realistically be no smaller than 40% at the very very low end. 

[dcar00 14,907]

there are estimates that spanish flu had 20%-40% of the US pop contract it by the end, with most saying it was mid range about 30-33%.

 it seems a 40% number for covid is reasonable

[dcbc 14,643]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Not sure of all the details but I think the general concept is that we have 10x the number of actual infections as reported cases. Or at least 10x is the number I've seen thrown around on here a lot. And then I guess, yeah, what you said about immunity in other ways from other coronaviruses. 

I don't really buy it but I'd damn sure love for it to be right. 

Well there has to be some sort of immunity to previously uninfected people for herd immunity to be achieved at such a low percentage.  Just has to be some explanation for there being nowhere for the virus to jump even though a majority of the population hasn't been infected. 

Maybe a high percentage of face covering plays into it? 

Edited September 2, 2020 by dcbc

[kevwun 16,294]

We are nowhere near 20% let alone 40%, so it has to be masks.

Edited September 2, 2020 by kevwun

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,964]

So how do we know get to the 20-40% Life is practically normal everywhere besides Cali- deaths, cases positivity% are back to early March range?

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

3 minutes ago, kevwun said:

We are nowhere near 20% let alone 40%, so it has to be masks.

Yeah.  We are at 6 million official cases.  Even if it was 10x higher, and 60 million Americans had went through it, we are nowhere near any kind of herd immunity at that point.

[Anastasis 23,702]

3 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So how do we know get to the 20-40% Life is practically normal everywhere besides Cali- deaths, cases positivity% are back to early March range?

We don't.  We keep wearing masks until we vaccinate.

 

[justhookit 4,205]

I just want to know all these places where life is back to practically normal. Holy shit.

Edited September 2, 2020 by justhookit

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,964]

We are nowhere near 20% let alone 40%, so it has to be masks.

6,000,000 confirmed x cdc estimated 10x actual cases / 329,000,000=19%. With 7 of our 10 most infected states all on the slope with similar curves. North Carolina is on the uptick, Illinois is mostly stable, currently going down, and Georgia’s graph is on meth

 

 

Ohio has a similar graph to NC, Pennsylvania pretty similar to Illinois.

 

My question is Do the other 40 states have the density or population to cause a July rise?

[Brisketexan 106,641]

It seems that herd immunity for COVID could be between 20% and 40%......but there's only a 10% chance of that...

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,964]

It seems that herd immunity for COVID could be between 20% and 40%......but there's only a 10% chance of that...

The world needs more Frank Drebin

[Brisketexan 106,641]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

The world needs more Frank Drebin

We really, really do.  I mean, he wants us to remain calm....

[dcar00 14,907]

13 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah.  We are at 6 million official cases.  Even if it was 10x higher, and 60 million Americans had went through it, we are nowhere near any kind of herd immunity at that point.

60M is getting close to 20%

[XYZ 2,154]

It seems like the virus burnt itself out in NYC. Take a random sample of 1000 people in NYC and do antibody tests. That would give us a decent measure of the herd immunity threshold, no? I mean, I don’t know, maybe I’m missing a big part of this puzzle, but why the fuck are we not doing random samples?

[kevwun 16,294]

I don't think there is a reliable antibody test yet in numbers great enough to do that.  The current ones have problem differentiating between covid-19 and other corona viruses.

Edited September 2, 2020 by kevwun

[atomheartbevo 90,550]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

60M is getting close to 20%

Flu is %35-45.

I don't trust 20% in regards to my elderly in-laws, my senior citizen parents, my elderly great-aunts, my elderly neighbors.

I've now known too many people who have had covid, and know of a couple of relatives of friends/co-workers who have died from it, to be ready to throw things open just yet.

 

[kevwun 16,294]

I just went to the graveside service of someone who died from covid today.  I hope like hell it's 20%, but yeah, I'm gonna need more evidence.

[bschoolprof 6,339]

35 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Well there has to be some sort of immunity to previously uninfected people for herd immunity to be achieved at such a low percentage.  Just has to be some explanation for there being nowhere for the virus to jump even though a majority of the population hasn't been infected. 

Maybe a high percentage of face covering plays into it? 

There are an increasing number of epidemiological studies released recently that offer explanations for a much lower HIT than ~60-80%.  I can link some of them if you like.  The idea, as I understand it, is the classical models tend to make strong assumptions of homogeneity - that is, individuals have similar susceptibility, infectivity, and interaction in the broad population. But there's evidence that most infected people don't actually infect anyone else, whereas some people are super spreaders.  Newer models are taking this heterogeneity into account - that some are more susceptible, or more infective, or interact with a lot more people than others.  In these models, the highly interactive and susceptible agents get the virus first and quickly spread it, but they drop out of the infection pool fairly quickly and viral spread slows. My understanding is the HIT in these models can be quite low (e.g., 15% of the population).  Not sure I completely understand it or buy it fully, but there are reputable scientists putting out these kinds of models.   

19 minutes ago, kevwun said:

We are nowhere near 20% let alone 40%, so it has to be masks.

There are so few counterfactuals, so it's hard to argue with this, but Sweden is one.  They have had a massive fall off in cases and deaths (down to almost none), and the vast majority of the country has not been infected.  Yet there is no widespread masking.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,964]

I doubt it’s a hard 20, but after the 7-8 most populous states that have almost >50% of the population, there’s too much space and not enough density in flyover/rural America where’s there hot spots but it’ll be impossible to recreate an April/July with those leftovers

 

 

And most of those states have been mostly open for months