COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[kevwun 15774]

The lady I know who passed away from Covid got sent to the hospital in Austin.  I don't think many of the surrounding rural counties are treating cases locally so I think that you are right about that being at least a part of the admits.  Also, it looks like DSHS got their database issue fixed on Friday.

Edited October 26, 2020 by kevwun

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Bit of a bi-modal/"book end" distribution in yesterday's cases for Travis County. Of the 102 cases yesterday they are heavier in the younger & older age groups. Middle ranges are below their normal share of cases. Only 11 admits yesterday so here is hoping that trend holds and we get out of the 20/day average we have been on.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/26 vs 10/25	-1	5	18	29	13	14	5	9	8	2	102
% of Daily Change	-0.98%	4.90%	17.65%	28.43%	12.75%	13.73%	4.90%	8.82%	7.84%	1.96%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.94%	9.59%	27.01%	20.80%	15.81%	11.33%	6.45%	3.25%	2.30%	31,653

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Here is a view of a rolling 14 day number of cases that match the latest Hospitalization data from Travis County. Key assumption I am doing is taking cases from 10/4 through 10/18 as being the ones I am matching against hospitalized patients as of 10/18. There will be obviously some leakage in the sense that there could be long term hospitalizations from CV19 stemming from earlier cases but as a directional view I believe this info to be informative.

For the period of 10/4 through 10/18 folks 60 years old or higher made up 12.62% of cases yet accounted for 46% of hospitalizations. Basically every group that is older than 50 years old had a share of hospitalizations greater than their share of cases. Other interesting view is that of hospitalization rate. Basically of cases what % ended up in hospital.

Similar trends exist in terms of older folks having a dramatically higher admit rate than younger. Bear in mind the avg admit rate pandemic start to now is ~15%.

14 Day Case Counts Share of Cases Hosp. as of 10/18 Share of Hosp. Hosp. Rate <1 4 0.35% 0 0.00% 0.00% 1 to 9 43 3.72% 0 0.00% 0.00% 10 to 19 150 12.96% 2 2.00% 1.33% 20 to 29 332 28.69% 10 10.00% 3.01% 30 to 39 202 17.46% 11 11.00% 5.45% 40 to 49 153 13.22% 13 13.00% 8.50% 50 to 59 127 10.98% 18 18.00% 14.17% 60 to 69 80 6.91% 17 17.00% 21.25% 70 to 79 44 3.80% 16 16.00% 36.36% >80 22 1.90% 13 13.00% 59.09% Total 1157   100

 

 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

On 10/26/2020 at 9:26 AM, kevwun said:

The lady I know who passed away from Covid got sent to the hospital in Austin.  I don't think many of the surrounding rural counties are treating cases locally so I think that you are right about that being at least a part of the admits.  Also, it looks like DSHS got their database issue fixed on Friday.

Yeah, I'm really curious about how the admit numbers are compiled and what counties they are counted against.  With El Paso at 100% capacity in hospital beds/ICU, they are already working to transfer patients out of EP, although where I'm not sure, since Alpine, Fort Stockton, etc. don't have much hospital capacity.  Lubbock and San Antonio are not exactly close.

Edit: Friend who is a nurse in a Texas National Guard unit said she's wondering if she'll end up in EP, since they are not getting it under control at all.  

Edited October 27, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Trey3216 15346]

On 10/21/2020 at 9:30 PM, Lobo said:

No man, there could have been old lettuce in one of those things.  Contain yourself! 

This hospitalization trend is disturbing.  Seemed like at least that part of the equation was flattening out.  And half my dumbass fucking neighbors are planning a high-contact Halloween (no fisting!)

Why are so many smart people so fucking dumb?  What is possibly left to prove with this thing?  Why are certain people this stubborn?  What's left to gain by spreading this thing when we've already made it well over halfway to the end?  

I'm telling you, you can get this stupid ass virus anywhere, even in places where every fucking person is wearing a mask at all times.  But just keep banging your drum about proof and shit.  The fucking virus is going to spread, regardless of what we do (save welding people into their houses, which isn't fucking happening here, nor would I stand for it)

[workswithseed 2103]

21 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm telling you, you can get this stupid ass virus anywhere, even in places where every fucking person is wearing a mask at all times.  But just keep banging your drum about proof and shit.  The fucking virus is going to spread, regardless of what we do (save welding people into their houses, which isn't fucking happening here, nor would I stand for it)

I had a friend say that China did a better job than us here in the states. WTF?

[BrazilHorn 6586]

49 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I'm telling you, you can get this stupid ass virus anywhere, even in places where every fucking person is wearing a mask at all times.  But just keep banging your drum about proof and shit.  The fucking virus is going to spread, regardless of what we do (save welding people into their houses, which isn't fucking happening here, nor would I stand for it)

I don't think it is a matter of stopping people from catching it. Rather it is a matter of stopping people from catching it all at once. Part of why the mortality rate has dropped is that we have more info on how to treat and we had available equipment to treat (beds, ICU, vents etc)

If the US just carte blanche says "fuck it" and we act like there isn't a virus we stand to overwhelm the health care system and be unable to provide care for those in need. You can see what is happening in the cities and states where bars were reopened and restrictions lifted, everyone acts like a college kid on spring break. We saw this in Austin back in July when cases/admits etc spiked due to restrictions on bars being lifted.

This to me is why I wear a mask, wash hands, try and avoid large indoor gatherings etc. It is merely to "flatten the curve". Everyone, unless they are totally shut in and ordering food via delivery (and disinfecting packages prior to entry into house) is at risk.

But people railing against mask wearing are missing the point. If they were only putting themselves at risk zero fucks would be given, it is the fact that they are putting others at risk that is the issue.

[Trey3216 15346]

55 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I don't think it is a matter of stopping people from catching it. Rather it is a matter of stopping people from catching it all at once. Part of why the mortality rate has dropped is that we have more info on how to treat and we had available equipment to treat (beds, ICU, vents etc)

If the US just carte blanche says "fuck it" and we act like there isn't a virus we stand to overwhelm the health care system and be unable to provide care for those in need. You can see what is happening in the cities and states where bars were reopened and restrictions lifted, everyone acts like a college kid on spring break. We saw this in Austin back in July when cases/admits etc spiked due to restrictions on bars being lifted.

This to me is why I wear a mask, wash hands, try and avoid large indoor gatherings etc. It is merely to "flatten the curve". Everyone, unless they are totally shut in and ordering food via delivery (and disinfecting packages prior to entry into house) is at risk.

But people railing against mask wearing are missing the point. If they were only putting themselves at risk zero fucks would be given, it is the fact that they are putting others at risk that is the issue.

I think you’re misconstruing my comment.  

[Deej 76759]

3 hours ago, workswithseed said:

I had a friend say that China did a better job than us here in the states. WTF?

They welded people into their homes.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

122 cases yesterday for Travis County. Little bit of spike on older side which may not bode well for deaths in a couple of weeks.

13 admits yesterday so at least the last couple of days of admits have dropped from the run in the 20's last week.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/27 vs 10/26	0	6	13	33	28	14	7	11	8	2	122
% of Daily Change	0.00%	4.92%	10.66%	27.05%	22.95%	11.48%	5.74%	9.02%	6.56%	1.64%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.95%	9.60%	27.01%	20.81%	15.80%	11.31%	6.46%	3.26%	2.29%	31,775

[atomheartbevo 89652]

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/could-the-area-be-back-in-stage-4-by-november-health-officials-to-give-covid-19-update-at-10-a-m/

Austin/UT health officials saying things are looking better for the Austin area.  We might be able to keep sports and school going through December.

[Anastasis 23469]

ATX new cases @76, new admits @28.

 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

Back to not having to wear masks in Texas while voting.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas/texas-voters-wont-be-required-to-wear-masks-while-voting-after-appeals-court-temporarily-lets-abbott-order-stand/

 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

Austin vaccine trial participant said side effects worth it

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/austin-covid-19-vaccine-trial-participant-says-side-effects-are-worth-it-for-progress/

She has to check in for 25 months.

[South Austin 52463]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Austin vaccine trial participant said side effects worth it

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/austin-covid-19-vaccine-trial-participant-says-side-effects-are-worth-it-for-progress/

She has to check in for 25 months.

Would bang without a mask.

[Trey3216 15346]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Would bang without a mask.

Abby or Avery? 

[Hate 20108]

Robert?

[BrazilHorn 6586]

low daily case count for Travis County yesterday with 76. Crazy number of admits though at 28 new admissions. Good news is Travis County only went up by 2 patients (112 to 114) so ideally a lot of folks were discharged as that would be a significant number of deaths otherwise (much higher than been the past several weeks)

No major a-has on the the case front, still split "book-end" style with younger and older a bit over represented and middle under compared to their pandemic to date share of cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/28 vs 10/27	1	6	11	19	16	8	7	8	1	-1	76
% of Daily Change	1.32%	7.89%	14.47%	25.00%	21.05%	10.53%	9.21%	10.53%	1.32%	-1.32%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.96%	9.61%	27.01%	20.81%	15.78%	11.31%	6.47%	3.26%	2.29%	31,851

[NoName 16351]

20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

low daily case count for Travis County yesterday with 76. Crazy number of admits though at 28 new admissions. Good news is Travis County only went up by 2 patients (112 to 114) so ideally a lot of folks were discharged as that would be a significant number of deaths otherwise (much higher than been the past several weeks)

No major a-has on the the case front, still split "book-end" style with younger and older a bit over represented and middle under compared to their pandemic to date share of cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/28 vs 10/27	1	6	11	19	16	8	7	8	1	-1	76
% of Daily Change	1.32%	7.89%	14.47%	25.00%	21.05%	10.53%	9.21%	10.53%	1.32%	-1.32%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.96%	9.61%	27.01%	20.81%	15.78%	11.31%	6.47%	3.26%	2.29%	31,851

data question for you here - new admissions only counts patients "from" Travis Co, right?

would it include patients transferred from El Paso --> Austin?

[SHOOTER12 8800]

On 10/27/2020 at 4:01 PM, workswithseed said:

I had a friend say that China did a better job than us here in the states. WTF?

Yeah, I totally trust stats coming out of China.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

11 minutes ago, NoName said:

data question for you here - new admissions only counts patients "from" Travis Co, right?

would it include patients transferred from El Paso --> Austin?

This I frankly do not know. If not then the admit rate has entered unprecedented levels, or people are just being admitted due to bed availability in Travis county (ounce of prevention type deal)

[NoName 16351]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

This I frankly do not know. If not then the admit rate has entered unprecedented levels, or people are just being admitted due to bed availability in Travis county (ounce of prevention type deal)

Thanks!

[atomheartbevo 89652]

4 hours ago, NoName said:

data question for you here - new admissions only counts patients "from" Travis Co, right?

would it include patients transferred from El Paso --> Austin?

In terms of El Paso, everything that I've read today said it's non-covid patients being transferred out of EP, and it's voluntary to boot.  Transferring covid patients ties up a lot of assets and a lot of time.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

92 new cases in Travis County yesterday and 10 new hospital admits.

reasonable spread with exception of 50 to 59 and 70 to 79 outperforming their normal share of cases

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/29 vs 10/28	1	4	11	20	19	9	15	6	6	1	92
% of Daily Change	1.09%	4.35%	11.96%	21.74%	20.65%	9.78%	16.30%	6.52%	6.52%	1.09%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.96%	9.62%	26.99%	20.81%	15.77%	11.32%	6.47%	3.27%	2.28%	31,943

[BradInATX 9208]

Austin's trend headed back down. That's great news.

[rpspeed 1363]

https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/whistleblower-says-el-paso-ambulances-picking-up-covid-19-patients-from-juarez

But a whistleblower inside the fire department spoke to KFOX14 exclusively on condition of anonymity. “There's somedays where it's only three or four times and other days when it will be 13 or 14 responses. You'll be there for one patient and [CBP] customs will let you know, hey there's another one right behind them and another one sometime there are four or five waiting in line,” said the anonymous source.

[atomheartbevo 89652]

5 hours ago, rpspeed said:

https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/whistleblower-says-el-paso-ambulances-picking-up-covid-19-patients-from-juarez

But a whistleblower inside the fire department spoke to KFOX14 exclusively on condition of anonymity. “There's somedays where it's only three or four times and other days when it will be 13 or 14 responses. You'll be there for one patient and [CBP] customs will let you know, hey there's another one right behind them and another one sometime there are four or five waiting in line,” said the anonymous source.

Why isn't CBP keeping those people out?  Aren't they checking temps or anything?

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Some funky shit re: hospital admits in Travis County. Increase of 25 vs yesterday but only 1 more person in total is hospitalized. Basically in past 6 days with the number of new admits Travis County has "refreshed" almost 100% of those that are hospitalized. Either we have a bunch of covid hypochondriacs, people are getting sicker but hospitals better at treating or a bunch of people have died (this data updated tomorrow).

New cases yesterday only 81 with minimal in >60 (good for deaths)

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/30 vs 10/29	0	5	13	23	23	5	7	5	0	0	81
% of Daily Change	0.00%	6.17%	16.05%	28.40%	28.40%	6.17%	8.64%	6.17%	0.00%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.97%	9.63%	27.00%	20.83%	15.74%	11.31%	6.47%	3.26%	2.28%	32,024

[NorthLoop 14191]

Uggh. Dad tested positive on Wednesday. Checked in the hospital today having trouble breathing. He's been sick for 2 weeks though so hopefully he's mostly over the covid and this is just pneumonia. Though pneumonia ain't nothing to fuck with .

[atomheartbevo 89652]

1 hour ago, NorthLoop said:

Uggh. Dad tested positive on Wednesday. Checked in the hospital today having trouble breathing. He's been sick for 2 weeks though so hopefully he's mostly over the covid and this is just pneumonia. Though pneumonia ain't nothing to fuck with .

Had this happen to a friend's dad - he had it for over a week, seemed to be fine, then the pneumonia came out of nowhere, and the docs almost missed it.  Are they tracking his blood-oxygen levels?  Or if he's a UT fan, his blood-alcohol levels?

[NorthLoop 14191]

19 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Had this happen to a friend's dad - he had it for over a week, seemed to be fine, then the pneumonia came out of nowhere, and the docs almost missed it.  Are they tracking his blood-oxygen levels?  Or if he's a UT fan, his blood-alcohol levels?

Yeah it was really low when he got in but they quickly got him up to 92

[atomheartbevo 89652]

11 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Yeah it was really low when he got in but they quickly got him up to 92

Yeah, the drop in oxygen level happened pretty quick, and that was when he was admitted, because they (I think EMTs - I know they called an ambulance) struggled getting it back up.  He wasn't having the normal breathing difficulties and pain that you might have with a non-covid pneumonia, but apparently covid-induced pneumonia causes the levels to drop quick, and in such a way that you don't get the kind of warning you do with regular pneumonia.

But at least it's October, and not March or April when they were still working out treatments, etc.   He said the doctors/nurses knew exactly what to do and had him in good shape fairly quick.

I'm wondering if the people still going on ventilators are those who oxygen levels drop and they don't catch it in time and get in trouble.

[Hawndoh 2386]

Looks like both my parents got it. They're in their late 60s. Say they feel like they have bad colds. Only been symptomatic for a couple of days 

[atomheartbevo 89652]

1 hour ago, Hawndoh said:

Looks like both my parents got it. They're in their late 60s. Say they feel like they have bad colds. Only been symptomatic for a couple of days 

Buy them a blood-oxygen sensor thing.  They are cheap, and worth it.

[Bevo 13576]

10 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Yeah it was really low when he got in but they quickly got him up to 92

92 proof is pretty high. He should be okay to watch football.

Edited November 1, 2020 by Bevo

[Fudbelty 2788]

Buy them a blood-oxygen sensor thing.  They are cheap, and worth it.

This right here. Mine was $15 I think At Walgreens

[Guest Lobo]

Any of you docs/nurses wanna weigh in on a good, affordable model of a blood-oxygen sensor?  I think we need one since we've demonstrated some symptoms now and again in the last several months but we never show fever or most of the other metrics.  

Edited November 1, 2020 by Lobo

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Travis County is just so crazy. We had 112 people in the hospital on the 30th, on the 31st only 97. 10 new admits yesterday so on the low end for where Travis county has been the past week or so. Only 3 deaths last week (lowest since June). So we have had a rash of admits, a ton of discharges and no one dying. Just a weird set of data to look at. All deaths were from the 50+ age groups.

119 new cases yesterday, with 60% of them concentrated in the 20 to 29 & 30 to 39 age brackets.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 10/31 vs 10/30	0	3	12	47	25	14	8	8	1	1	119
% of Daily Change	0.00%	2.52%	10.08%	39.50%	21.01%	11.76%	6.72%	6.72%	0.84%	0.84%
% of Total Cases	0.51%	2.97%	9.64%	27.04%	20.83%	15.73%	11.30%	6.47%	3.25%	2.27%	32,143

[smoky 840]

Sounds like people might be defaulting to go to the hospital for care, they get admitted, but their symptoms are mild so they get discharged quickly?

Does an admit mean an overnight stay or simply that a patient was taken in, seen by a doc, and discharged all in the course of 6 hours?

 

 

[Gladeite 375]

 One of my neighbors got it.  Pretty mild symptoms overall but got pneumonia.  Took himself to ER/hospital.  He got checked out, prescribed medications and sent home to get better.  He is almost back to normal after about a week.  

[Fudbelty 2788]

 One of my neighbors got it.  Pretty mild symptoms overall but got pneumonia.  Took himself to ER/hospital.  He got checked out, prescribed medications and sent home to get better.  He is almost back to normal after about a week.  

Exactly what happened with me except when I thought I was fine 4 days after 0 Covid symptoms got the pain in my back which was the PEs in my lung.

[Bevo 13576]

3 hours ago, Lobo said:

Any of you docs/nurses wanna weigh in on a good, affordable model of a blood-oxygen sensor?  I think we need one since we've demonstrated some symptoms now and again in the last several months but we never show fever or most of the other metrics.  

Masimo

[Guest Lobo]

15 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Masimo

Amazing company.  They make the pants I buy at Chess King.  

[BrazilHorn 6586]

By age group Travis County reporting is all fucked up. I swear I don't know who does the data entry for Travis Co but they certainly make it easy to believe there is some kind of fix in. The Travis County by age group reporting rolls up to 1877 cases yesterday. In actuality there were 77 cases yesterday overall.

25 admits yesterday as well. Having seen the pictures from Halloween from downtown Austin I would expect to see some jumps in cases with the <39 age groups. Yet to be seen if that manifests in hospitalizations as well.

 

[Trey3216 15346]

21 hours ago, smoky said:

Sounds like people might be defaulting to go to the hospital for care, they get admitted, but their symptoms are mild so they get discharged quickly?

Does an admit mean an overnight stay or simply that a patient was taken in, seen by a doc, and discharged all in the course of 6 hours?

 

 

I wouldn't doubt that this is what is happening.  Wife had another seizure 2 weeks ago so I had to leave the daughter with M-I-L and go to the ER with the wife.  ER was packed with sick people (we had both just gotten over COVID, so I wasn't worried about getting it) that were coming in, seeing doctors, and getting discharged in 1-2 hours.  

[bschoolprof 6252]

It's looking like the hospital census (level of current patients) might be more meaningful than new admits (one component of the change), at least locally.  There has been a slow rise in the hospital census for COVID in Austin and Houston, but it's been small thankfully.  El paso is another story.  

[BrazilHorn 6586]

This is a two day view of age demo data for Travis County as yesterday Travis County was borked. 170 cases over past two days combined (77 & 83 respectively then a mystery 10 Travis added - I hate their data people)

Big share for the <40 crowd. 77% of cases vs 61% pandemic to date. Should bode well for future admits but we will see. 19 hospital admits yesterday.

Something has fundamentally changed in the hospitalization rate for Travis County the past couple of weeks.22% of cases have ended up in the hospital. Prior to past 14 days the average was 15% This is ~46% increase in hospitalization rate.

Just a very strange phenomenon. Especially as cases have skewed younger the past couple of weeks. Either admit practices have changed, severity of virus has changed, the people getting it are hypochondriacs etc etc Something is different.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/2 vs 10/31	2	8	15	54	52	13	17	4	1	4	170
% of Daily Change	1.18%	4.71%	8.82%	31.76%	30.59%	7.65%	10.00%	2.35%	0.59%	2.35%
% of Total Cases	0.52%	2.98%	9.63%	27.07%	20.88%	15.68%	11.29%	6.45%	3.24%	2.27%	32,313

[Guest Lobo]

That 46% increase is strange given the skewing of the ages of the new cases.  Is that similar to around the rest of the state or just the result of a couple dozen hippie hypochondriacs?  Hippie-Hypos?  Because that is a marked departure from last few trend lines.  Thanks for your analysis as always...

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Just now, Lobo said:

That 46% increase is strange given the skewing of the ages of the new cases.  Is that similar to around the rest of the state or just the result of a couple dozen hippie hypochondriacs?  Hippie-Hypos?  Because that is a marked departure from last few trend lines.  Thanks for your analysis as always...

I have not been tracking statewide, given the fact that all of the shutdown/opening policies are being driven locally I have just been focused on Travis.

It is just really weird to me to see admits rising so much as looking at who is getting sick it doesn't make a ton of sense. The number of ICU & Vents as of yesterday are the lowest they've been in two weeks as well. (37 & 17 respectively). Just weird.

[dcar00 14181]

58 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I have not been tracking statewide, given the fact that all of the shutdown/opening policies are being driven locally I have just been focused on Travis.

It is just really weird to me to see admits rising so much as looking at who is getting sick it doesn't make a ton of sense. The number of ICU & Vents as of yesterday are the lowest they've been in two weeks as well. (37 & 17 respectively). Just weird.

do they give the ages of the admits?

Edited November 3, 2020 by dcar00