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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

do they give the ages of the admits?

As of 10/25 here is view (Travis is typically week in arrears)

10 to 19 - 2

20 to 29 - 10

30 to 39 - 11

40 to 49 - 13

50 to 59 - 18

60 to 69 - 17

70 to 79 - 16

80+ - 13

So still seeing a preponderance of hospital admits are those >50 whereas cases have been skewing. This makes sense as we are still seeing all deaths be from 50+ the past couple of months (albeit far lower numbers overall in terms of deaths)

 

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9959

Posted
Posted
On 10/30/2020 at 3:24 PM, rpspeed said:

https://kfoxtv.com/news/local/whistleblower-says-el-paso-ambulances-picking-up-covid-19-patients-from-juarez

But a whistleblower inside the fire department spoke to KFOX14 exclusively on condition of anonymity. “There's somedays where it's only three or four times and other days when it will be 13 or 14 responses. You'll be there for one patient and [CBP] customs will let you know, hey there's another one right behind them and another one sometime there are four or five waiting in line,” said the anonymous source.

same as the previous outbreak in the valley...disingenuous to call it strictly a Texas problem

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

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24 new admits yesterday for Travis County off of 138 cases. Big jump in the 50 to 59 age group yesterday compared to their normal share.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/3 vs 11/2 0 5 10 38 17 23 25 11 5 4 138
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.62% 7.25% 27.54% 12.32% 16.67% 18.12% 7.97% 3.62% 2.90%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.98% 9.62% 27.07% 20.84% 15.69% 11.32% 6.46% 3.24% 2.27%   32,451
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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 26890

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

My life has been normal for months. My kids are in school. I just don’t hang around my grandparents.

Is there anyone in here that is truly still quarantined? I don’t know anyone that is, but I suppose they are still out there.

We had to go to DC over the past few weeks to bring back some NSF equipment for my friend. We were careful on the road, stayed in hotels, etc, and still had some interesting incidents, and have decided to lock it down for 7 days to be sure. But I go out when needed, run the dog every evening, etc. We built a social bubble very early on and it has worked for the most part. The concern I have is trusting people who say they are being good and then you see all the crap they are out doing. 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6342

Posted
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10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Are they skewing towards El Paso/RGV?  Please say they are, and that the rest of the state is still doing well.

Houston and Austin have been largely flat for cases for several weeks, with a slight uptick for Austin the past few days.  Based upon that, I'd infer that most of the explosion in cases at the state level has been in places that weren't hit as hard in waves 1 or 2, just like we are seeing nationally.  

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6342

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

@bschoolprof What do you think that pop in Austin is from? My guess is the combo of cold snap+Halloween parties. Any other ideas?

Could be, probably also just more socializing/complacency, which is understandable.  I'm noticing fewer students with masks on outdoors around campus, which in and of itself is not a huge deal, but is likely a sign that guards are being let down more generally.  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

Posted
Posted

154 cases in Travis County yesterday making two days in a row with >100 cases (we had been living in the <100 cases/day range for a couple of weeks). Third of cases in the 20-29 bracket which could be the first wave of the packed downtown/saturday night halloween rearing its head. Drop of six day over day in the 1 to 9 bracket which always makes you wonder how the fuck that happens. 27 hospital admits and 134 in the hospital (highest since 8/31). People having CV19 fatigue are going to end up putting Austin back on fucking lockdown if they don't get their shit together.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/4 vs 11/3 1 -6 21 51 22 20 29 10 4 2 154
% of Daily Change 0.65% -3.90% 13.64% 33.12% 14.29% 12.99% 18.83% 6.49% 2.60% 1.30%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 9.64% 27.10% 20.81% 15.68% 11.35% 6.46% 3.24% 2.27%   32,605
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

Posted
Posted

Well, Travis County is teetering on edge of a breakout (or at least a good burst upwards) with three straight days over 100 cases (yesterday was 143 cases)

Looks like some of the Halloween fucktardery of downtown Austin might be hitting as cases are skewing in that age group. Other concerning tidbits is there are currently 52 people in the ICU. We haven't had that many ICU patients since Aug 30th. 26 admits yesterday as well bringing our three day run to 77.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/5 vs 11/4 2 2 9 42 36 27 10 8 6 1 143
% of Daily Change 1.40% 1.40% 6.29% 29.37% 25.17% 18.88% 6.99% 5.59% 4.20% 0.70%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.94% 9.63% 27.11% 20.83% 15.69% 11.34% 6.45% 3.24% 2.26%   32,748
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
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Department of Defense is sending three medical teams to various El Paso hospitals.   Shit continues to get worse.

State court allowing El Paso to keep their shutdown order in place.  Texas AG plans to appeal and get the order tossed.

https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2020/11/06/el-paso-covid-19-shutdown-update-judge-makes-decision-case/6177525002/

Quote

A state district court judge has ruled County Judge Ricardo Samaniego's week-old COVID-19-tied shutdown order can remain in place.

State 34th District Court Judge William Moody made the ruling Friday afternoon.

Requests to at least temporarily stop Samaniego's Oct. 29 order from being enforced and ultimately have it declared illegal were made by a group of 10 El Paso restaurant operators, and the Texas Attorney General's office, which joined the restaurants' lawsuit and also filed its own injunction request.

Judge said he used info from the Spanish Flu to guide him

Quote

Moody said in announcing his decision that lawyers making arguments in the case found no legal precedent to guide him in his decision, but did find historical precedence in the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-1919.

During that pandemic, elected officials in Texas cities and counties, including Dallas and San Antonio, developed their own responses in ways to “protect the health and financial interests of their individual communities," he said.

"Those orders varied over time depending on the severity of the spread of that deadly flu," he said.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted

Walmarts and a Sams Club were closed for extra sanitizing in EP

https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/2020/11/06/some-el-paso-walmart-stores-close-for-covid-19-sanitizing/6177422002/

Quote

However, in a Thursday news conference, El Paso Mayor Dee Margo said one of the major sources of El Paso's COVID-19 cases is big-box retailers, which, he said, include Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe's Home Improvement stores.

City data released Friday show 150 employees at big-box stores, called "super stores" in the data table, have active COVID-19 cases within 21 active clusters, or locations with two or more active cases. City officials do not divulge business names in its COVID-19 data.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

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El Paso County reported 18 deaths and 1,300 new coronavirus cases Friday.

All 18 patients had underlying health conditions. The patients were a man in his 20s, a woman in her 40s, a man in his 50s, three men in their 60s, three men and two women in their 70s, three men and two women in their 80s and two men in their 90s. The death toll now is 657.

State is pushing out delayed information for some reason - those deaths cover a wide rang.

Quote

The deaths occurred between the third week of August and the first week of November, according to the city.

Staff also are reporting 123 additional cases that are part of the delayed local results issued by the state to the Department of Public Health. 

I've heard they are pushing a lot more non-covid patients out to other cities, more than they were.  We swear we've heard a lot more helicopters over the last 3-4 days going to the hospitals in Central Austin

Quote

Health officials said 35,178 individuals have recovered. There are 23,702 active cases.

There have been 59,852 positive cases. Data show 1,049 people are hospitalized, including 311 in intensive care and 174 on ventilators; 49% of hospitalizations in El Paso County are COVID-19 related. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

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Posted

Another day of high cases for Travis county with 179 cases. Big blow ups in the Halloween partying age groups. 24 new admits yesterday as well. If we keep on this trend through next Friday I am raising the unofficial official BrazilHorn "buoyancy" range from 0-100 back to 100-200.

I am curious to see what deaths look like tomorrow when they are released. I actually expect them to be low (relatively) given the age ranges of who has been making up case loads the past couple of weeks.

Need people to hold it together through the holidays or I believe shit will be shut down again.

Crazy.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/6 vs 11/5 0 6 26 58 31 26 19 5 8 0 179
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.35% 14.53% 32.40% 17.32% 14.53% 10.61% 2.79% 4.47% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.94% 9.65% 27.14% 20.81% 15.68% 11.33% 6.43% 3.25% 2.25%   32,927
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Cement

Cement 314

Posted
Posted

This guy's twitter feed (which is Harris County-centric) has been more informative than anything else I've found out there since the start of the pandemic - as can be seen, the hot spots in Texas are El Paso (obviously), Amarillo, and Lubbock.

And if you haven't bookmarked this site, you really should - gives you hospitalization data (current & historical) by region in the state.

https://covid-texas.csullender.com/

Interesting to note that the main hotspots (e.g., El Paso, Lubbock, and Amarillo) are areas that were largely spared over the summer while the areas that were hurting (e.g. Houston, SA, and the RGV) are doing pretty well now.  It's not a perfect negative correlation of -1.0 across the state but it does lend more weight to the theory that every corner of the state is going to get it...eventually.

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CHIEF

CHIEF 5228

Posted
Posted

Shit, in our county of 60k, 35 miles from DFW, we have had 1438 cases, but have never had more than 100 active cases at a time. We have a lot of retirees, so we have had 42 deaths. Everyone is still 85% wearing masks, so we are doing pretty good, this in a 90% red county, I hope they keep up the good work.

CHIEF

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Cement said:

It's not a perfect negative correlation of -1.0 across the state but it does lend more weight to the theory that every corner of the state is going to get it...eventually.

It's expected they will all get - we Texans do like to drive around the state.  The big thing I notice, is that many in the areas that got hit hard in the spring/summer, are still willing to give the mask thing a go, and are careful.  Not all, but plenty still do.  You get in those outer areas that were mostly spared, and you get a lot of attitudes of "if it didn't get us before now, it's not going to get us."

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

Posted
Posted

Here is two day view as I took yesterday off from demographic reporting (combo of baseball tournament & game night)

Not looking great for Travis County and I think based on age groups this past week we can almost 100% infer it is Halloween related.

26 admits yesterday and 135 people in the hospital at this time. We have had 6 straight days >20 hospital admits and this is first time since this has happened since 8/21.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/8 vs 11/6 0 5 29 86 51 34 15 13 4 4 241
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.07% 12.03% 35.68% 21.16% 14.11% 6.22% 5.39% 1.66% 1.66%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.94% 9.67% 27.20% 20.81% 15.67% 11.29% 6.42% 3.24% 2.25%   33,168
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6846

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Posted

24 admits yesterday (7 straight days of 20+ admits). 213 cases. Tuesday is often a catch-up day from weekend for Travis County but the hospital admit numbers are no joke and given that the cases have been skewing so young is weird to me that admits would be running hot. Maybe folks are hypochondriacs, maybe disease is just hitting them harder due to weather changes, fuck who knows. What I do know is all of the Halloween shit came home to roost in that 20 to 29 bracket this past week. Hopefully this surge will wind down before we run into Thanksgiving. We are back to mid-August levels on admits. What is weird is we are well below the # of hospitalizations so while people are being admitted they are being processed out quickly. In mid August we had ~220 # of people in the hospital the last time there was a 7 day stretch >20 admits/day. Right now we are at 140. Just interesting to watch. So as noted above my hypothesis is people are being admitted quickly, then stabilized and shown the door. (but I am not a Dr.)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/9 vs 11/8 1 1 21 83 43 21 23 13 4 3 213
% of Daily Change 0.47% 0.47% 9.86% 38.97% 20.19% 9.86% 10.80% 6.10% 1.88% 1.41%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.92% 9.67% 27.27% 20.81% 15.63% 11.29% 6.42% 3.23% 2.24%   33,381
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted

In El Paso, bodies in trees mobile morgues

https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/10/us/el-paso-covid-mobile-morgues/index.html

Quote

County Judge Ricardo Samaniego said the county has requested four more trailers in addition to the six mobile morgues already on the ground to handle a spike in deaths. 

"It may be as much as 20 per day the next two to three weeks. There might be more and more an incline of deaths," Samaniego told CNN affiliate KFOX.

That's as county leaders have already been working with funeral homes and mortuaries on fatality management and government forces have arranged to begin assisting area hospitals, according to Assistant Fire Chief Jorge Rodriguez of the El Paso Office of Emergency Management.

Quote

The state also sent nearly 1,400 personnel to assist hospitals in the area, and an alternate care site at the El Paso convention center is also up and running and currently treating about 40 patients. Another 56 ICU patients had to be air-evacuated to other facilities in New Mexico and Texas, Rodriguez said.

Quote

There are more than 26,000 active Covid-19 cases in El Paso and at least 1,028 people hospitalized, according to the city's Covid-19 dashboard. 

Hospital workers who are battling the crisis on the front lines say they've been overwhelmed.

Quote

Rose was one of the health care workers from all over the country who were dispatched to New York in the spring, when the state was a hot spot for cases and New York City hospitals were overwhelmed with patients. What he's experiencing now, he told the affiliate, is "rougher" than the time he spent in New York.

"I've seen more death in the last three weeks than I've seen in a year," Rose said. "I've done compressions on more people in the last three weeks than I have in a year." 

"We have families calling us all the time. They cry on the phone. They're worried," Rose told the affiliate.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted

Shit, El Paso has 319 in the ICU with covid.

https://kvia.com/coronavirus/2020/11/10/el-paso-sets-record-for-coronavirus-hospitalizations-9-new-deaths-reported/

The Department of Public Health reports there are 1,076 Covid-19 patients receiving treatment in El Paso's hospitals. There are also 319 patients in the ICU, which is also a record.

The health department also reported nine new coronavirus-related deaths, along with 1,292 new cases.

The latest victims include:

  • 1 man in his 50s
  • 2 women in their 50s
  • 1 woman in her 70s
  • 2 men in their 70s
  • 2 men in their 80s
  • 1 man in his 90s

That brings the death toll to 682 in El Paso County.

 

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dcar00

dcar00 14971

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

24 admits yesterday (7 straight days of 20+ admits). 213 cases. Tuesday is often a catch-up day from weekend for Travis County but the hospital admit numbers are no joke and given that the cases have been skewing so young is weird to me that admits would be running hot. Maybe folks are hypochondriacs, maybe disease is just hitting them harder due to weather changes, fuck who knows. What I do know is all of the Halloween shit came home to roost in that 20 to 29 bracket this past week. Hopefully this surge will wind down before we run into Thanksgiving. We are back to mid-August levels on admits. What is weird is we are well below the # of hospitalizations so while people are being admitted they are being processed out quickly. In mid August we had ~220 # of people in the hospital the last time there was a 7 day stretch >20 admits/day. Right now we are at 140. Just interesting to watch. So as noted above my hypothesis is people are being admitted quickly, then stabilized and shown the door. (but I am not a Dr.)

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/9 vs 11/8 1 1 21 83 43 21 23 13 4 3 213
% of Daily Change 0.47% 0.47% 9.86% 38.97% 20.19% 9.86% 10.80% 6.10% 1.88% 1.41%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.92% 9.67% 27.27% 20.81% 15.63% 11.29% 6.42% 3.23% 2.24%   33,381

do they need to be hospitalized to get the new treatments being offered?  it seems like that stuff is not, "here are your meds, call me in the morning."  if they are being processed quickly that seems to be a great sign(new treatment is working well and faster) to me but who knows.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

do they need to be hospitalized to get the new treatments being offered?  it seems like that stuff is not, "here are your meds, call me in the morning."  if they are being processed quickly that seems to be a great sign(new treatment is working well and faster) to me but who knows.

I have a cousin-in-law who got one of those fancy new treatments (he had an underlying treatment or two), and while it seemed like he was about to go downhill fast, whatever they treated him with got him out of the hospital within a few days, under his own power, doing incredibly well.  Not everybody is getting that though, and I don't know if it's certain hospitals or certain medical coverage.

But it was impressive.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 90650

Posted
Posted (edited)

Furk

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/10/co-infection-el-paso-hospitals-see-patients-with-both-the-coronavirus-and-the-flu.html

Quote

Dr. Emilio Gonzalez-Ayala told Shepard Smith, “There is no bed available in any hospital in El Paso and there hasn’t been for at least the last couple of weeks.”

In El Paso, they’ve brought in six freezer trucks to hold dead Covid-19 victims, and four more are expected by the end of the week because the morgues cannot hold the dead.

Dr. Gonzalez-Ayala is seeing patients with both the coronavirus and the flu.

Quote

El Paso, Texas pulmonologist Dr. Emilio Gonzalez-Ayala told CNBC that the hospital infrastructure in El Paso “hasn’t and won’t for the foreseeable future” be able to withstand the coronavirus surge that has stricken his community. 

“For the next few weeks that come ahead, I don’t see how we can continue to afford the impact that we’re seeing on our ERs,” Gonzalez-Ayala said in a Tuesday evening interview on “The News with Shepard Smith”. “There is no bed available in any hospital in El Paso and there hasn’t been for at least the last couple of weeks.”

Flu and covid at the same time.  That could escalate fast.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 32079

Posted
Posted (edited)

Dallas County posting some scary case numbers.  More than 1000/day for several days now.

Hospitalization seems to be mostly in check for now.

Tarrant similar.

Collin seems to have a candor problem.  But I suppose due to population density is escaping the worst.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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