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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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AUS-97HORN

AUS-97HORN 11813

Posted
Posted

frankly, Adler needed to get off his ass on Friday when the upticks were clearly going in the wrong direction.  We need to get back into stage 4 now - while we still can without being forced to do it in a weeks time. 

Thanksgiving is cancelled this year folks, sorry, thats just the way it is.  Hell, Christmas is pretty close to be cancelled as well at this rate. 

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Telegraph_it

Telegraph_it 3359

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

Thanksgiving is cancelled this year folks, sorry, thats just the way it is.  Hell, Christmas is pretty close to be cancelled as well at this rate. 

Does not seem entirely cancelled.

Quote

Organizers said the NTFB gave away over 7,000 turkeys and around 600,000 pounds of food in Fair Park to those families in need as the holidays approach and the COVID-19 pandemic continues.

Link: https://dfw.cbslocal.com/2020/11/15/thousands-line-up-north-texas-food-banks-largest-mobile-food-distribution-ever/

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Skipper

Skipper 6189

Posted
Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, Knighthawk said:

Yes.  Just awful.   How many deaths?  Are hospitalizations up?

Deaths probably won't ramp up for a month.  Hospitalizations are rising but the most complete data source (Tues/Friday released report) essentially always trails actual admission by 7+ days.  I would expect this Friday's report to reflect a material increase then it may be off to the races from then out.   We were still leaning to the conservative side of things compared to most but think we are officially tightening our circle a bit more.   

 

Edit - just seeing that Dallas chart posted above.  What is the source for that?   The "best" source only has partial data through 11/7 at the moment.  If that graph is remotely accurate things have increased exponentially since then.  We should get an update from Dallas County tomorrow.

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23481

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Posted
33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Crossposting for the third time - AISD saw 54 new cases last week (on campus), and 741 exposures, meaning those folks are doing at-home for two weeks.  And AISD just did a bunch of tests this afternoon for the Austin High crowd (they had 7 new cases and over 300 exposures last week).

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Everybody going back virtual after Tday.  Just prepare for it now. 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6271

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, Skipper said:

 

 

Edit - just seeing that Dallas chart posted above.  What is the source for that?   The "best" source only has partial data through 11/7 at the moment.  If that graph is remotely accurate things have increased exponentially since then.  We should get an update from Dallas County tomorrow.

From here, which is pulling hospital data from the state, here.  Click on hospitals - regional; Dallas is service area "E."  

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

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Travis County still having higher cases than end of October but the Tuesday dump that typically happens didn't trigger. 157 cases yesterday and 25 hospital admits and a drop by 5 to 182 to people currently in hospital.

Hopefully it was a Halloween/Voting/Election Celebration spike that will wind down prior to Thanksgiving.

Younger folks still driving higher case load than their normal share.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/15 vs 11/14 1 5 17 51 23 29 10 12 5 4 157
% of Daily Change 0.64% 3.18% 10.83% 32.48% 14.65% 18.47% 6.37% 7.64% 3.18% 2.55%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 9.67% 27.43% 20.81% 15.55% 11.25% 6.43% 3.20% 2.21%   34,769
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

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Posted

Ok - Now here is the Tuesday trueup and it is not a good look for Travis County. Especially as the 60+ cohorts are over their normal contribution which is a leading indicator of an increase in deaths.

251 cases yesterday with 39 hospital admits (highest single day since 8/11). We have 196 people in the hospital at this time with 65 in the ICU (both most since 8/20).

We have completely reversed what had been a very positive trend. 5 of the past 7 days have had >30 admits (with remaining two days in mid-20s), If this continues don't be shocked if Austin moves back to Stage 4 in advance of Thanksgiving. Stay away from indoor gatherings, wear masks, socially distance, don't be a selfish ass.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 11/17  vs 11/16 2 12 15 67 46 39 30 24 14 2 251
% of Daily Change 0.80% 4.78% 5.98% 26.69% 18.33% 15.54% 11.95% 9.56% 5.58% 0.80%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.96% 9.64% 27.42% 20.79% 15.55% 11.26% 6.45% 3.22% 2.20%   35,020
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

If this continues don't be shocked if Austin moves back to Stage 4 in advance of Thanksgiving.

40 admits a day is where they seem to be putting Stage 4.   Also, fewer ICU beds in Austin due to Austin taking in El Paso patients, and Austin sending medical staff to El Paso.  

This is heading towards a worst-case scenario where we are dealing with other cities’ problems while we are ramping up.  This is why we need a statewide policy designed around protecting the state as a whole, and not encouraging some areas to run wide open, with the view that the larger cities can take up the slack when those smaller areas get hit.  

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Skipper

Skipper 6189

Posted
Posted
On 11/16/2020 at 8:03 PM, bschoolprof said:

From here, which is pulling hospital data from the state, here.  Click on hospitals - regional; Dallas is service area "E."  

I think what I didn't appreciate initially is these links reflect all of the DFW region.  It's bad everywhere here but Tarrant County is leading the pack for sure on a per capita basis. I believe currently as many hospitalizations in Tarrant County as in Dallas.   Tarrant has already blown through their summer ramp up.  Collin is close.   And Dallas and Denton are trending that way.

 

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utee94

utee94 15842

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Pretty good feeling that Wheels will drop the bomb on either Friday afternoon or sometime mid-week next week that schools are going all virtual through the end of the semester.  Just seems like something that we'd do.  

It really needs to be announced by Thursday, so everyone knows to grab all their laptops, ipads, notebooks, folders, partially finished projects, etc. before heading home for the holidays.

 

Edit: I've already told my kids to bring everything home, just in case.  I did the exact same thing on March 13th, the last Friday before Spring Break.  And of course, they didn't go back to school again for the year.

 

 

 

Edited by utee94
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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6271

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Skipper said:

I think what I didn't appreciate initially is these links reflect all of the DFW region.  It's bad everywhere here but Tarrant County is leading the pack for sure on a per capita basis. I believe currently as many hospitalizations in Tarrant County as in Dallas.   Tarrant has already blown through their summer ramp up.  Collin is close.   And Dallas and Denton are trending that way.

 

Yes, and the numbers for "Austin" I posted above from the State are really for the 5 county region around Austin, which differs from BrazilHorn's updates, which are only for Travis county.   

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Yes, and the numbers for "Austin" I posted above from the State are really for the 5 county region around Austin, which differs from BrazilHorn's updates, which are only for Travis county.   

Good call out. I am just looking at Travis County as anything outside of Travis County for me based on where I live/work may as well be marked on the map saying          "Here be Monsters".

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Pretty good feeling that Wheels will drop the bomb on either Friday afternoon or sometime mid-week next week that schools are going all virtual through the end of the semester.  Just seems like something that we'd do.  

He's not.  He signaled this week that they see no reason to change policy at this point and it sounds like they will fight any counties that think otherwise (they aren't letting up on El Paso, and they told I think it was Lubbock, to fuck off as well).  

Also, closing the schools in-person, without any kind of stimulus package, will fuck over a lot of people.  At the most, Abbott probably won't try and force larger districts to stay open, but he won't do a statewide mandate.

The most we will see will be cancellation of STAAR (almost 70 State Reps. signaled they wanted it canceled).

Meanwhile, in El Paso, they are using a handful of inmates to work the mobile morgues

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/15/coronavirus-texas-el-paso-inmates-morgue-deaths/

 

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

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Hearing through the grapevine at work that Travis county is going to announce stage 4 tomorrow. We think we can still keep our school open to the 25% of students that most need to be there. We are sending students home over the break with all of their belongings because making hundreds of deliveries sucks.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

Hearing through the grapevine at work that Travis county is going to announce stage 4 tomorrow. We think we can still keep our school open to the 25% of students that most need to be there. We are sending students home over the break with all of their belongings because making hundreds of deliveries sucks.

Yeah, just saw a conversation among parents in our neighborhood, who are medical professionals (probably Surly posters, since only 2% of us are not doctors or lawyers), and they think it's going to happen this week.

AISD has another 21 cases between Monday and Tuesday (a few are Austin High) and a few hundred listed as exposed, which means over 500 students/staff are home due to exposure.  21 doesn't seem like a lot over two days, but the problem is they are very spread out among several schools.

Wild card is whether the state will sue Travis County over this, since we'll be doing what El Paso and Lubbock tried.

 

 

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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Posted
2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Wild card is whether the state will sue Travis County over this, since we'll be doing what El Paso and Lubbock tried.

So, why is it exactly that our fucking governor is so recalcitrantingly opposed to, you know, county judges making decisions?

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 105200

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So, why is it exactly that our fucking governor is so recalcitrantingly opposed to, you know, county judges making decisions?

Because...and follow me here....he’s a shitweasel with no courage. He has been attacked by the wingnut wing of his party (so, pretty much the whole thing) for not being “the virus is a hoax and everything should be open” enough. So, he’s caved, because it’s more important to not have Allen West call you a poopyhead than it is to look out for the people you’re supposed to protect.
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Captainant

Captainant 27722

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Because...and follow me here....he’s a shitweasel with no courage. He has been attacked by the wingnut wing of his party (so, pretty much the whole thing) for not being “the virus is a hoax and everything should be open” enough. So, he’s caved, because it’s more important to not have Allen West call you a poopyhead than it is to look out for the people you’re supposed to protect.

And as long as there's at least one other state doing as bad as texas, he and his will point to that state to say "see? We didn't do so bad!" Ala what we've seen with comparisons to Europe. 

It's not about protecting people, it's about saving face

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DaysOff

DaysOff 7967

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Posted

The schools are not the problem. It's what kids do after school that's concerning. Even NYC schools are under 0.2% positivity, yet they're shutting down with almost no warning to working parents. Europe is shutting down, but they're leaving the schools open. Shuttering schools won't flatten the curve.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

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Posted
5 hours ago, DaysOff said:

Shuttering schools won't flatten the curve.

It’s an interesting point. We have a small school district in Cen Tex who kept the kids in school because their they can control  their contact with each other and, if you shut down, we obviously see that the parents aren’t following isolation and mitigation measures.

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Larry T. Spider

Larry T. Spider 1747

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Posted (edited)

We have tons of cases in the community surrounding my school but 0 at school. Some students have tested positive but they were all doing virtual anyway. The biggest risk factors seem to be sports practice, dance groups, and kids that wear a mask/distance all day at school only to go play in a pile of 30 kids after school. 

Edited by Larry T. Spider
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gmr548

gmr548 16591

Posted
Posted
Yeah, just saw a conversation among parents in our neighborhood, who are medical professionals (probably Surly posters, since only 2% of us are not doctors or lawyers), and they think it's going to happen this week.
AISD has another 21 cases between Monday and Tuesday (a few are Austin High) and a few hundred listed as exposed, which means over 500 students/staff are home due to exposure.  21 doesn't seem like a lot over two days, but the problem is they are very spread out among several schools.
Wild card is whether the state will sue Travis County over this, since we'll be doing what El Paso and Lubbock tried.
 
 

The state will sue Travis County over anything. It’s their favorite hobby.
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

If they shut my kids elementary school down or transition to full virtual I will be pissed. There have been two kids since the start of the semester that tested positive, neither with any symptoms.  

14 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Shutting down schools would be monumentally stupid.  

We have been saying it over and over in this thread and the other - we can keep everything open if people will just wear a little piece of fabric, wash their hands, and keep some distance when possible.  But that is apparently asking too much of our fellow human beings.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted

Tarrant County seeing record number of cases.  And the Fort Worth Mayor has it.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/18/betsy-price-coronavirus-tarrant-county/

Quote

After the county's hospitalization rate crept up over 15%, public health officials issued a public health warning to try and stop the spread of the coronavirus.

Quote

Tarrant County reported a pandemic high of more than 2,100 new coronavirus cases and nearly 800 hospitalizations Wednesday, the same day Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price tested positive for COVID-19.

“As we head into the holiday season, we continue to ask everyone to remain vigilant and prioritize the health and safety of our community by wearing a mask and social distancing,” Price said in a statement. Price’s husband had tested positive for the virus just hours earlier.

Quote

County data showed coronavirus patients accounted for more than 15% of hospital bed occupancy for a second straight day. If that rate continues for seven consecutive days, stricter health precautions that include bar closures and reduced restaurant capacities will go into effect, in accordance with Gov. Greg Abbott’s October executive order.

 

 

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Captainant

Captainant 27722

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

Even if the plebes aren't doing what the clerics on high want them to re: covid, there's very little evidence schools are a major vector of infection.  The costs of closing them would outweigh the benefits.  By far.  

It's too bad that MUH FREEDOMS anti-facemask gang didn't give enough of a shit about how their actions could effect others. When teachers get zero support or cohesive plan for how to operate, increased uncertainty will lead to more closures. It's all about risk mitigation, because districts would rather not put their underpaid and shorthanded teachers at risk of contracting COVID or saying "fuck this shit I'm out". Shit several educators I know personally may not even get their student debt forgiven like they were promised when they chose to start teaching - why should they continue to be underpaid child care?

Edited by Captainant
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Skipper

Skipper 6189

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Posted

Yeah Tarrant is insane right now.  And I was wrong in my post yesterday.  Not only is Tarrant County setting hospitalization records daily at this point but so is Denton and Collin.  Dallas is the only county in the region that has not reached the summer peak.  But we are well on our way.

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