COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Another shit day for Travis County. 366 cases, 57 new admits & 239 people hospitalized.

Fairly even distribution of cases across the age ranges with the exception of the 60 to 69 group outperforming its typical share of cases. Based on their mortality rate I would expect to see from the 35 cases yesterday in this group 1-2 deaths.

The 57 admits is the highest single day of admits since July 22nd. So whereas before we had gone back in time to August which was when improvements were seen from July peak, now we are moving into July. Not good and I expect schools closure for a week post Thanksgiving to be announced today.

If you are a high risk individual planning on getting together with friends/family on Thanksgiving just realize that you are putting yourself (and potentially others) in harm's way. Hang onto your shorts as I think next couple of weeks will be a shit show.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/24  vs 11/23	3	12	28	101	80	58	32	35	7	10	366
% of Daily Change	0.82%	3.28%	7.65%	27.60%	21.86%	15.85%	8.74%	9.56%	1.91%	2.73%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.98%	9.64%	27.59%	20.77%	15.46%	11.21%	6.48%	3.21%	2.15%	37,120

[Anastasis 23469]

50+ over 60yo ain’t good. 
 

@BrazilHorn can you do mortality numbers and case fatality rates by age segments if you have those data. 

[BrazilHorn 6599]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

50+ over 60yo ain’t good. 
 

@BrazilHorn can you do mortality numbers and case fatality rates by age segments if you have those data. 

Here you go. Bear in mind those <10 have had 0 deaths for Travis County. Showing three rows here: Cumulative Share of Deaths, Cumulative Share of Cases & Mortality Rate by age group. End of day this kills those >60 (~82% of total deaths).

	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80
Cum Share of Deaths	0.21%	0.63%	1.68%	3.35%	12.37%	22.43%	24.95%	34.38%
Cum Share of Cases	9.64%	27.59%	20.77%	15.46%	11.21%	6.48%	3.21%	2.15%
Mortality Rate	0.03%	0.03%	0.11%	0.29%	1.45%	4.58%	10.26%	20.97%

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Here's a good chart that shows just how stark the bookends are between share of cases vs share of deaths. Blue is share of deaths, orange is share of cases

[Captainant 27660]

4 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here's a good chart that shows just how stark the bookends are between share of cases vs share of deaths. Blue is share of deaths, orange is share of cases

Wtf is the Y axis on that chart? Why is 9% just as tall as 27%?

[BrazilHorn 6599]

30 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Wtf is the Y axis on that chart? Why is 9% just as tall as 27%?

It is a 100% stacked bar. Fits everything to be 100% share. Used for showing comparisons across data sets. This way you can see relative impact vs two data points. In this case - Share of Cases vs Share of Deaths.

edit - I am using it to show tipping point where a age groups share of cases is eclipsed by their share of deaths.

Edited November 25, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[atomheartbevo 89659]

On 11/23/2020 at 9:02 AM, atomheartbevo said:

Texas is now averaging 10,000 new cases a day.

We hit 13,998 new cases yesterday.  

[Captainant 27660]

Petition to the mods to update the thread title to be "COVID-19 3rd wave"

[BradInATX 9208]

54 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

It is a 100% stacked bar. Fits everything to be 100% share. Used for showing comparisons across data sets. This way you can see relative impact vs two data points. In this case - Share of Cases vs Share of Deaths.

edit - I am using it to show tipping point where a age groups share of cases is eclipsed by their share of deaths.

 

Is that your chart that you can modify? I'd love to see that as two individual lines on the same chart if so, I think that would make it more illustrative. 

[Hefeweizen 5320]

16 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Petition to the mods to update the thread title to be "COVID-19 3rd wave"

Never ending tsunami of 2 weeks.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

54 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

It is a 100% stacked bar. Fits everything to be 100% share. Used for showing comparisons across data sets. This way you can see relative impact vs two data points. In this case - Share of Cases vs Share of Deaths.

edit - I am using it to show tipping point where a age groups share of cases is eclipsed by their share of deaths.

Well, the labels call it "cum share" so it is natural that we are confused and just assume it has something to do with South Austin's mom.

[BrazilHorn 6599]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

 

Is that your chart that you can modify? I'd love to see that as two individual lines on the same chart if so, I think that would make it more illustrative. 

[Captainant 27660]

1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

So south austin's mom is right where the cum lines cross?

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

 

Nice, yeah, that's pretty interesting. Outside of the 10-19, it's almost two straight trend lines in an X. I think the fact that olds are by far the most at-risk is known at this point but seeing it like that is pretty staggering.

 

I'd say do a bar chart with a ratio (% of cases to % of deaths) in the background, but it would be so steep of a curve it probably wouldn't even be a worthwhile viz. It'd look like that Schlitterbahn death waterslide that they had to shut down.

Edited November 25, 2020 by BradInATX

[BrazilHorn 6599]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

So south austin's mom is right where the cum lines cross?

Yes - she is a high risk individual due to the sheer volume of foot traffic and direct injections of fluids from numerous participants. She was the original "super spreader"

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Just now, BradInATX said:

 

Nice, yeah, that's pretty interesting. Outside of the 10-19, it's almost two straight trend lines in an X. I think that's pretty known at this point but seeing it like that is pretty staggering.

Yeah, it is one thing to know that 60+ years old is 82% of deaths, but seeing it visually really drives it home. This is why older folks really need to shut their shit down.

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, BrazilHorn said:

Yeah, it is one thing to know that 60+ years old is 82% of deaths, but seeing it visually really drives it home. This is why older folks really need to shut their shit down.

Why does the percent of cases add up to 96.5? Guessing the rest are in the 0-10 group?

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Just now, BradInATX said:

Why does the percent of cases add up to 96.5? Guessing the rest are in the 0-10 group?

yes. since there have been 0 deaths in the <1 & 1 to 9 age groups I left them off the chart.

[workswithseed 2103]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Yes - she is a high risk individual due to the sheer volume of foot traffic and direct injections of fluids from numerous participants. She was the original "super spreader"

[Brisketexan 105122]

4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Yeah, it is one thing to know that 60+ years old is 82% of deaths, but seeing it visually really drives it home. This is why older folks really need to shut their shit down.

So, for 250k dead, we're seeing that 205k are 60+, and 55k are under 60.  That's still a shitload of dead young people that you don't see with other illnesses, but setting that aside....205k people dead, not all of whom are THAT old (60 ain't that old).  But let's treat them as a bucket of "old people" just the same.

They still ended up dead.  That's not a good outcome.  The disease spread to them, and they died.  Because they are human beings, and they don't live in bubbles.  They shop, they go out, they talk to people.  If they are in a care facility, they are cared for by non-old people.  If a virus is out there that 1) spreads among all people, and 2) kills the hell outta old people, then absent major public health measures (eg, vaccines), we're gonna see a whole lotta dead old people.

My mom has 1-2 Christmases left, probably.  I'd like her to actually have them, and see her family again.  Sure, she's old and definitely compromised (cancer patient), but even the little bit of time she has left matters.  So, forgive me if I don't jump on board the "fuck it, they're old, they were gonna die sometime" train with enthusiasm.

[BrazilHorn 6599]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

So, for 250k dead, we're seeing that 205k are 60+, and 55k are under 60.  That's still a shitload of dead young people that you don't see with other illnesses, but setting that aside....205k people dead, not all of whom are THAT old (60 ain't that old).  But let's treat them as a bucket of "old people" just the same.

They still ended up dead.  That's not a good outcome.  The disease spread to them, and they died.  Because they are human beings, and they don't live in bubbles.  They shop, they go out, they talk to people.  If they are in a care facility, they are cared for by non-old people.  If a virus is out there that 1) spreads among all people, and 2) kills the hell outta old people, then absent major public health measures (eg, vaccines), we're gonna see a whole lotta dead old people.

My mom has 1-2 Christmases left, probably.  I'd like her to actually have them, and see her family again.  Sure, she's old and definitely compromised (cancer patient), but even the little bit of time she has left matters.  So, forgive me if I don't jump on board the "fuck it, they're old, they were gonna die sometime" train with enthusiasm.

I am not sure where you get from my post the "fuck it they're old". I am just highlighting that deaths concentrate among the elderly and they need to really ensure they avoid contact with large groups/broader social settings as they have a much higher risk of dying.

That's what the data shows. I didn't say anything about setting up death panels or anything. You can of the 205k that are over 60 also take out ~70k that were in nursing homes/long term care facilities (CDC data as of 11/15). So then you get 135k >60 that have died from CV19 that were "in the wild". The reason I would subtract the 70k from nursing homes is that those folks aren't out in day to day life (gyms, restaurants, jobs etc) (obviously they're exposed to those who are - workers/family etc). I am just taking those numbers out to highlight the number of folks who died from CV19 that were in a less controlled environment. To me what happened in our nursing homes is a tragedy and many of those deaths could have been easily avoided.

All I am saying is that if you are >60 and the data shows (This is for Travis County but seems to echo across US from other data I have seen) the following mortality rates:

60 to 69 - 4.58%, 70 to 79 - 10.26%, 80+ 20.97%

that the onus is as much on you to avoid situations where you could contact CV19 as it is on people with a 0.03% mortality rate (20 to 29 year olds) from giving it to you. Especially given that the vast majority of folks >70 are not in the workforce and could easily avoid contacts with larger groups of people, indoor gatherings etc.

Your mom for example has to make a decision if she wants to risk her life to see her grandkids or kids. My mom had to make same. She decided not to come over for Thanksgiving as she has significant preexisting conditions that put her at higher risk. She lives by herself and as our kids have been back at school she doesn't want to risk exposure. I do believe that if you are >60 you need to be much more responsible than someone <30 in terms of CV19 as while the <30 year old may have long term effects if they catch it they won't die. Someone >60 has a decent chance of dying and if they live also having the same long term effects.

I think many of the older folks are doing "span of life calculus" and even without a vaccine are deciding in cases where they may only have 1-2 years left to see their kids/grandkids vs not. My MIL is doing that, 75 years old, just had a stent in and still wants people over. She had open heart surgery ~ a year ago and believes she'll only be around for a couple of years more so she wants to spend as much time with family as possible.

By no means am I saying "fuck the old". I am saying that if you are over 60 you run a much higher risk of dying so you should be very fucking careful.

Biggest challenge is we have had a total public policy failure with inconsistent application of preventative measures across our country. The fact that 9 months in we are still debating mask usage etc is ridiculous.

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

Older folks shouldn’t be willing to attend or host thanksgiving dinners with lots of people. But some (many?) are. 
 

Younger folks shouldn’t be willing to attend or host thanksgiving dinners with older people in attendance, but many are. 
 

we are likely to get what we are asking for. 

[Brisketexan 105122]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Older folks shouldn’t be willing to attend or host thanksgiving dinners with lots of people. But some (many?) are. 
 

Younger folks shouldn’t be willing to attend or host thanksgiving dinners with older people in attendance, but many are. 
 

we are likely to get what we are asking for. 

We always do.

Lord, spare us from getting exactly what we deserve.

[Captainant 27660]

23 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

we are likely to get what we are asking for. 

We have been fucking around, we found out, and we're doubling down on fucking around. 

Murica. 

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Preview for today's results for Travis County - 118 cases, 29 admits and a drop of 13 people hospitalized so Travis Co is now at 226.

I will have age demographic splits tomorrow. All the best and Happy Thanksgiving.

[Guest Lobo]

We chose not to be with extended family this year for the holiday for safety reasons, even though most years I feel like killing those fucking people.  

Also, yeah...we gotta stop considering the deaths over 60 to be "old people on their way out anyway."  To me, that's like 75 or 80.  

[BrazilHorn 6599]

AISD going 100% virtual next week. Fingers crossed kids can go back on 7th

[atomheartbevo 89659]

44 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

AISD going 100% virtual next week. Fingers crossed kids can go back on 7th

The information you are posting is going to be followed by a lot more posters here now that we have to watch the numbers for school.

[B00M 6415]

Closing schools, especially elementary schools is indefensible at this point. It's been suspected but now we have the data and it's clear. Thanks to low ACE2 expression kids barely get it, they barely spread it, they don't die from it, and remote learning is a disaster for young kids and their parents. AISD has 215 total cases in nearly 3 months. Close the high schools if anything. 

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Happy Thanksgiving all.

118 cases yesterday for Travis County with a heavier concentration in the 50 to 59 years old bracket which is not a group you want to see skewing up. 29 admits.

 

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/25  vs 11/24	0	1	10	30	26	9	27	8	5	2	118
% of Daily Change	0.00%	0.85%	8.47%	25.42%	22.03%	7.63%	22.88%	6.78%	4.24%	1.69%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.98%	9.63%	27.59%	20.77%	15.44%	11.25%	6.49%	3.21%	2.15%	37,238

[StruggleBus 3922]

4 hours ago, B00M said:

Closing schools, especially elementary schools is indefensible at this point. It's been suspected but now we have the data and it's clear. Thanks to low ACE2 expression kids barely get it, they barely spread it, they don't die from it, and remote learning is a disaster for young kids and their parents. AISD has 215 total cases in nearly 3 months. Close the high schools if anything. 

Agreed. Closing schools is absolutely wrong. 

[Hefeweizen 5320]

It’s a real shame keeping schools open isn’t enough of a priority to get people to behave more safely and wear masks.  But it sure sounds good to say over and over.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

6 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

It’s a real shame keeping schools open isn’t enough of a priority to get people to behave more safely and wear masks.  But it sure sounds good to say over and over.

Euros wear masked religiously and they are having this spike. I was on the eastern seaboard this summer and mask wearing was 100% compliance. That’s not a magic bullet and we aren’t spiking bc we don’t have people wearing masks. Compliance is damn near universal in most places. 

[Hpara759 1778]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

 Compliance is damn near universal in most places. 

I stopped at an Allsup's in Abilene last week, and went into Lowe's grocery store in Matador the next day

[BradInATX 9208]

It’s a real shame keeping schools open isn’t enough of a priority to get people to behave more safely and wear masks.  But it sure sounds good to say over and over.

Yep. Pretty much all of the people railing against closed schools are the same people having family gatherings and going to restaurants. This is why we can't have nice things.

[bschoolprof 6252]

8 hours ago, B00M said:

Closing schools, especially elementary schools is indefensible at this point. It's been suspected but now we have the data and it's clear. Thanks to low ACE2 expression kids barely get it, they barely spread it, they don't die from it, and remote learning is a disaster for young kids and their parents. AISD has 215 total cases in nearly 3 months. Close the high schools if anything. 

But science!

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

55 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Euros wear masked religiously and they are having this spike. I was on the eastern seaboard this summer and mask wearing was 100% compliance. That’s not a magic bullet and we aren’t spiking bc we don’t have people wearing masks. Compliance is damn near universal in most places. 

Show me how you know of the continued mask wearing habits of any group of people you are not continuously around. It sure as shit isn’t damn near universal, and sure as shit not in most places. 
 

schools do need to continue to be careful though because if the virus gets in to the teacher pool, they could have to close for a number of days if there aren’t enough teachers. 

[Hefeweizen 5320]

58 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Euros wear masked religiously and they are having this spike. I was on the eastern seaboard this summer and mask wearing was 100% compliance. That’s not a magic bullet and we aren’t spiking bc we don’t have people wearing masks. Compliance is damn near universal in most places. 

Yeah this just isn’t true, and no one has said they are a magic bullet, plus things like gaiters don’t even work.  But keep fighting against straw men because the best hope is wait for the vaccine and until then just say fuck it.  But god forbid teachers or custodians don’t want to get infected.

[Hefeweizen 5320]

46 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

1 hour ago, Hefeweizen said:

It’s a real shame keeping schools open isn’t enough of a priority to get people to behave more safely and wear masks.  But it sure sounds good to say over and over.

Yep. Pretty much all of the people railing against closed schools are the same people having family gatherings and going to restaurants. This is why we can't have nice things.

This fucking infuriates me.  The people I know who have been infected weren’t careful enough.  Everyone I know who has been cautious has avoided getting infected so far.  But the chances diminish due to chuckle fucks who think it’s the flu because their kids will be fine, as though that happens in a vacuum.  I’d love for my kids to be back in person but it ain’t happening until the vaccine is here.

 

And by the way, ironically, all the AP classes they are in have the lowest amount of in person students.  Coincidence?  Probably not.

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

58 minutes ago, Hpara759 said:

I stopped at an Allsup's in Abilene last week, and went into Lowe's grocery store in Matador the next day

Sure. But that’s bfe texas. Nobody was wearing masks in the Great Plains when we were there. My bet is Austin is damn near 100% compliance. 
seriously I didn’t see anyone in NY, PA, ME or MA not wearing a mask in 6 or 7 weeks up there (except the Amish). 
this isn’t an argument against mask wearing. This is just me saying the reason we are seeing spikes is not bc we aren’t wearing masks. We are in many places. And we still see spikes all over. 

Edited November 26, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[dcar00 14182]

35 minutes ago, Hefeweizen said:

This fucking infuriates me.  The people I know who have been infected weren’t careful enough.  Everyone I know who has been cautious has avoided getting infected so far.  But the chances diminish due to chuckle fucks who think it’s the flu because their kids will be fine, as though that happens in a vacuum.  I’d love for my kids to be back in person but it ain’t happening until the vaccine is here.

 

And by the way, ironically, all the AP classes they are in have the lowest amount of in person students.  Coincidence?  Probably not.

thats interesting I know 10 people that got it and they were all being careful, wearing masks, not being indoors with large groups.  2 others I know got it were 18-22 I'm sure they weren't careful.  I don't know any 30+ year olds that got it and weren't being careful.

[Brisketexan 105122]

Sure. But that’s bfe texas. Nobody was wearing masks in the Great Plains when we were there. My bet is Austin is damn near 100% compliance. 
seriously I didn’t see anyone in NY, PA, ME or MA not wearing a mask in 6 or 7 weeks up there (except the Amish). 
this isn’t an argument against mask wearing. This is just me saying the reason we are seeing spikes is not bc we aren’t wearing masks. We are in many places. And we still see spikes all over. 

And, quite shockingly.....bfe places and the Great Plains are where we’re seeing skyrocketing cases right now. Gosh, I wonder if there might be a correlation....

[atomheartbevo 89659]

10 hours ago, B00M said:

Closing schools, especially elementary schools is indefensible at this point. It's been suspected but now we have the data and it's clear. Thanks to low ACE2 expression kids barely get it, they barely spread it, they don't die from it, and remote learning is a disaster for young kids and their parents. AISD has 215 total cases in nearly 3 months. Close the high schools if anything. 

It's a damn shame that so many people decided to drag their little human beings halfway across the country or state, you know, the little human beings that lick windows, handrails, share food, lick their fingers, sneeze in other people's faces, etc., etc.

Texas went from 10,000 new cases on Monday to 14,000 new cases on Tuesday, to 14,650 new cases yesterday.  And that was even before the heavy travel kicked in, and we know it by the highways and the airports, that people are traveling all over the fucking place.

If people gave a shit about the schools, they'd control themselves, keep the numbers down, and then the districts wouldn't be looking at a shitshow in a week or two.

But people can't fucking do that, because reasons or feelings or something.

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

If kids don’t get it as easily, then there shouldn’t be a huge spike in school kids from this week. 

[Wulaw Horn 19069]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

And, quite shockingly.....bfe places and the Great Plains are where we’re seeing skyrocketing cases right now. Gosh, I wonder if there might be a correlation....

Sure. But they just closed schools in New York city as well. Europe is locking down. I was literally responding to the idea of “we can’t have nice things because people won’t wear masks”. Even the places where everyone is wearing masks don’t  have nice things throughout this pandemic. 

[Hefeweizen 5320]

Except Taiwan, South Korea, etc.  but it’s probably magical difference there right?  Why not  learn from places that aren’t having this be the worst managed pandemic out of all first world countries?

[B00M 6415]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's a damn shame that so many people decided to drag their little human beings halfway across the country or state, you know, the little human beings that lick windows, handrails, share food, lick their fingers, sneeze in other people's faces, etc., etc.

Texas went from 10,000 new cases on Monday to 14,000 new cases on Tuesday, to 14,650 new cases yesterday.  And that was even before the heavy travel kicked in, and we know it by the highways and the airports, that people are traveling all over the fucking place.

If people gave a shit about the schools, they'd control themselves, keep the numbers down, and then the districts wouldn't be looking at a shitshow in a week or two.

But people can't fucking do that, because reasons or feelings or something.

This spike has nothing to do with the little door knob lickers IMO. It's the adults that should know better traveling, hugging and spending hours inside with each other and 20-something kids without masks because "they're not sick" ... Oblivious to what's made this virus so successful. 

[dcar00 14182]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Show me how you know of the continued mask wearing habits of any group of people you are not continuously around. It sure as shit isn’t damn near universal, and sure as shit not in most places. 
 

schools do need to continue to be careful though because if the virus gets in to the teacher pool, they could have to close for a number of days if there aren’t enough teachers. 

mask wearing is all anecdotal.  no one knows. show me how you know 90%+ people aren't wearing masks.   Europe is almost full compliance, they are the smart people remember.

what slows it is not moving around, distancing, and not getting into large crowds(indoors or out)

[dcar00 14182]

3 minutes ago, B00M said:

This spike has nothing to do with the little door knob lickers IMO. It's the adults that should know better traveling, hugging and spending hours inside with each other and 20-something kids without masks because "they're not sick" ... Oblivious to what's made this virus so successful. 

spending hours inside a small space with masks or no masks with someone who has covid means you are likely to get it.  I will say a strange situation happened in my circle.  niece got it at school.  she quarantined with her roommate.  roomate never got symptoms at all and tested after 7 days and was negative.  really weird.  you would think she would have at least tested positive.

[B00M 6415]

23 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

spending hours inside a small space with masks or no masks with someone who has covid means you are likely to get it. 

It increased your chances, certainly. All masks and mitigation measures do is decrease your chances of receiving a sufficient dose to become infected. Reduce the transmission rate. Your conclusion, reached by so many, is that if mask use isn't 100% effective, or 100% enforced, it must be worthless, which is unreasonable and illogical.