COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Bevo 13576]

13 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

The Texas antibody testing has been consistently showing around 15% of those tested for antibodies actually having antibodies, since about Aug 1st.  And that's kind of a self-selected population, since the tested people thought they might have them.  5x of the Texas cases is about 19% of the population.  Use the 5x number or the antibody number, it still isn't enough for 70% herd immunity.

Texas hospitalization data shows that the slope of the increase in the November wave was less than the July wave.  Maybe this is antibodies at work or some other factor.

 

 

Herd immunity and slowing the spread of the disease are two different things. There are simulations that go into this but basically imagine the high risk people in a population having already been exposed and having a population that is immune to the virus and having a population wearing masks. If you are unexposed and go into such a population, the risk of you catching the disease decreases. Multiply this across the entire population and you will see a slow down in the number of new cases.

Edited November 30, 2020 by Bevo

[justhookit 4191]

Corpus seems to be ramping up big time. 304 new cases which is the most since mid August. Yesterday was also really bad. Maybe a weird data blip from the holiday weekend but we were already trending up anyway. I’ll watch this next 10 days reporting and then wait for the fallout from Tday. But if we are still in the mid 200s to mid 300s all this week we are headed for a shitshow. My guess is we exceed our record numbers by mid December. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by justhookit

[bschoolprof 6252]

4 hours ago, justhookit said:

Corpus seems to be ramping up big time. 304 new cases which is the most since mid August. Yesterday was also really bad. Maybe a weird data blip from the holiday weekend but we were already trending up anyway. I’ll watch this next 10 days reporting and then wait for the fallout from Tday. But if we are still in the mid 200s to mid 300s all this week we are headed for a shitshow. My guess is we exceed our record numbers by mid December. 

Yes, I expect Corpus numbers to keep rising. In terms of hospitalization trends, Dallas is ahead of Austin, which is ahead of Houston, which is ahead of Corpus.  They will likely peak in that order as well.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

I predict an immediate positive test spike this week because I’ve noticed an trend (100% anecdotal) of people waiting until mondays to get tested. I don’t know if this is for lower test costs or they just don’t want to interrupt their weekend. With an extended holiday weekend, I assume a rush of tests will be performed on Monday.

8 hours ago, Bevo said:

Yes, especially with first responders getting vaccinated.

BTW, does anyone have info on which people can get vaccinated early and where to get vaccinated? I'm surprised I haven't received some sort of an announcement. I'll be first in line but what about my staff?

Outside of front line responders, I don’t think there has been public announcements on the priority. I assume the first pass will be stingy given the relatively low availability. It also may not be equally distributed. My guess is that large hospital systems will get the majority. Even they will have to ration it based on priorities.

My uneducated guess is that that everyone needs to count on another 3-4 months before vaccines are widespread. And that’s with zero problems either with distributing or the vaccine itself. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[BrazilHorn 6599]

147 cases in Travis County yesterday with 24 admits. Cases heavily skewed towards younger age groups. with ~70% being from folks <40 years old.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/29  vs 11/28	1	6	6	41	49	12	23	6	3	0	147
% of Daily Change	0.68%	4.08%	4.08%	27.89%	33.33%	8.16%	15.65%	4.08%	2.04%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	2.99%	9.59%	27.66%	20.84%	15.37%	11.27%	6.45%	3.19%	2.14%	38,045

[CHIEF 5081]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I predict an immediate positive test spike this week because I’ve noticed an trend (100% anecdotal) of people waiting until mondays to get tested. I don’t know if this is for lower test costs or they just don’t want to interrupt their weekend. With an extended holiday weekend, I assume a rush of tests will be performed on Monday.

Outside of front line responders, I don’t think there has been public announcements on the priority. I assume the first pass will be stingy given the relatively low availability. It also may not be equally distributed. My guess is that large hospital systems will get the majority. Even they will have to ration it based on priorities.

My uneducated guess is that that everyone needs to count on another 3-4 months before vaccines are widespread. And that’s with zero problems either with distributing or the vaccine itself. 

I would think it would go First Responders, elderly and immunocompromised, essential workers, then vaccinate based on population density. At least that makes the most sense. I don't fall into any of the first three, live in a rural area, so I would be down the line a ways, as I should be.

CHIEF

Edited November 30, 2020 by CHIEF

[BradInATX 9208]

17 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

I would think it would go First Responders, elderly and immunocompromised, essential workers, then vaccinate based on population density. At least that makes the most sense. I don't fall into any of the first three, live in a rural area, so I would be down the line a ways, as I should be.

CHIEF

Population density isn't a bad idea. Bonus that rural areas are less likely to take the vaccine. I bet Travis Co. will have 80%+ vaccination rate. Comal County won't see 50%.

Edited November 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Skipper 6135]

I think I saw somewhere that CDC expects to give guidance this week on order of priority for vaccines.  It seems there is a debate about the elderly/long term care.  Primarily framed in that it won't be as easy/efficient to vaccinate those in long term care (i.e., not easily transported to vaccination centers).  I assume there is also some debate about whether to prioritize the population that is easiest to isolate vs. vaccinating those in the work force.  It's a tough call.  Obviously front line health care and medical first responders are at the top of the list.  But, for example, should teachers in schools that are open be vaccinated prior to those in long term care facilities?   I also haven't seen any in depth article analyzing expected vaccine availability the first few months + population of various categories of prioritized groups.  I would hope someone is working on that story (and if anyone has seen something similar I would be interested in reading).

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Skipper said:

But, for example, should teachers in schools that are open be vaccinated prior to those in long term care facilities?  

Of course they should.

Edited November 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Brisketexan 105119]

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I think I saw somewhere that CDC expects to give guidance this week on order of priority for vaccines.  It seems there is a debate about the elderly/long term care.  Primarily framed in that it won't be as easy/efficient to vaccinate those in long term care (i.e., not easily transported to vaccination centers).  I assume there is also some debate about whether to prioritize the population that is easiest to isolate vs. vaccinating those in the work force.  It's a tough call.  Obviously front line health care and medical first responders are at the top of the list.  But, for example, should teachers in schools that are open be vaccinated prior to those in long term care facilities?   I also haven't seen any in depth article analyzing expected vaccine availability the first few months + population of various categories of prioritized groups.  I would hope someone is working on that story (and if anyone has seen something similar I would be interested in reading).

I think that you can get much of that benefit by vaccinating the people who WORK in long-term care facilities, as they are the most likely vector for COVID getting into the old folks home.  And, those employees can get to a CVS to get the shots.  But, the vaccine IS mobile (storage with dry ice allows it to travel for adminstration).  I would think that a targeted plan for mobile administration that hits all the long-term care facilities in an area in a day or two would work, and wouldn't take long.  There aren't THAT many old folks homes.

[Skipper 6135]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Of course they should.

I tend to agree.  Particularly given as I understand the expectation is that it not be as effective in that population.   But I don't think it's an easy call.  I think a middle ground could be putting all workers in long term health care facilities close to the front of the line  to further reduce risk of infection in most vulnerable.   But as someone that has a grandmother in a facility I haven't seen since Februarym, I'm also pretty sympathetic to mental state of those isolated.  

[Anastasis 23469]

8 minutes ago, Skipper said:

It seems there is a debate about the elderly/long term care.  Primarily framed in that it won't be as easy/efficient to vaccinate those in long term care (i.e., not easily transported to vaccination centers).

Not sure what that has the be the case...grab the dry ice box and head to the LTC center.  You got all the residents in one place.  Seems like a mobile team of people administering the vax could knock out an entire facility including the staff in relatively short time frame.  I know that the logistics are complex, but our focus needs to be on getting as many 60+ vaccinated as quickly as possible after we hit the healthcare workers.  

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I predict an immediate positive test spike this week because I’ve noticed an trend (100% anecdotal) of people waiting until mondays to get tested. I don’t know if this is for lower test costs or they just don’t want to interrupt their weekend. With an extended holiday weekend, I assume a rush of tests will be performed on Monday.

yeah, I expect the Dallas numbers of new positive cases to shoot through the roof today because few people got tested Thur-Sunday

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Not sure what that has the be the case...grab the dry ice box and head to the LTC center.  You got all the residents in one place.  Seems like a mobile team of people administering the vax could knock out an entire facility including the staff in relatively short time frame.  I know that the logistics are complex, but our focus needs to be on getting as many 60+ vaccinated as quickly as possible after we hit the healthcare workers.  

I agree 100%. People that seemingly have the most potential for covid-related deaths or hospitalizations should be high on the priority. We need to ensure that the hospitals ICU beds are as available as much as possible for people that either refuse the vaccine or the vaccine doesn't work for them. 

Vaccinating younger people should be a low priority unless an individual has other medical reasons that make it necessary. And this isn't saying teachers shouldn't get the vaccine but there is not enough for everyone at first.

[Anastasis 23469]

I think that I would order the priorities something like this:

1. Frontline healthcare workers.

2. Elderly (staged based on individual's age, comorbidities, LTC status., etc.). 

3. Essential workers (teachers at front of line, cops, firefighters, etc. prioritized).

4. Non-elderly high risk.

5. Everyone else. 

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree 100%. People that seemingly have the most potential for covid-related deaths or hospitalizations should be high on the priority. We need to ensure that the hospitals ICU beds are as available as much as possible for people that either refuse the vaccine or the vaccine doesn't work for them. 

Vaccinating younger people should be a low priority unless an individual has other medical reasons that make it necessary. And this isn't saying teachers shouldn't get the vaccine but there is not enough for everyone at first.

I think that this is exactly right.  Who are the people driving the deaths, ICU occupancy, and hospitalizations.  Hit those people after the healthcare workers. Essential workers who don't fit the profile gonna have to wait their turn, which is hopefully like late Jan/Feb timeframe. 

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree 100%. People that seemingly have the most potential for covid-related deaths or hospitalizations should be high on the priority. We need to ensure that the hospitals ICU beds are as available as much as possible for people that either refuse the vaccine or the vaccine doesn't work for them. 

Vaccinating younger people should be a low priority unless an individual has other medical reasons that make it necessary. And this isn't saying teachers shouldn't get the vaccine but there is not enough for everyone at first.

It's a philosophical question or an actuarial question based on how you look at it.

But it probably comes down to a simple "expected life years saved" calculation. Will vaccinating teachers and keeping nursing homes locked down for awhile longer prevent more spread and ultimately deaths than giving it to nursing homes would? I tend to think so. There are not many "life years" left in nursing homes, and preventing community spread will also help keep it out of nursing homes.

If we're considering the greater good, it seems like a pretty obvious no brainer to me to put high-touch essential and service workers ahead of old folks' homes. Healthcare, education, retail, and bar/restaurant industry. Bonus that a lot of those people are the young folks who are spreading the virus around the community these days. Focusing on them will reduce spread via multiple channels; at work, and when they close the restaurant and go party.

Edited November 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Anastasis 23469]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It's a philosophical question or an actuarial question based on how you look at it.

But it probably comes down to a simple "expected life years saved" calculation. Will vaccinating teachers and keeping nursing homes locked down for awhile longer prevent more spread and ultimately deaths than giving it to nursing homes would? I tend to think so. There are not many "life years" left in nursing homes, and preventing community spread will also help keep it out of nursing homes.

If we're considering the greater good, it seems like a pretty obvious no brainer to me to put high-touch essential and service workers ahead of old folks' homes. Healthcare, education, retail, and bar/restaurant industry. Bonus that a lot of those people are the young folks who are spreading the virus around the community these days. Focusing on them will reduce spread via multiple channels; at work, and when they close the restaurant and go party.

Ramping up vax supply and delivery quickly will make some of these trade offs a lot easier to assess, but I am going to need to see to some real math put to it if you are proposing to put a huge list of 20 year old bartenders and service industry workers in front of a relatively short list of 70+ year old nursing home residents.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

It's a philosophical question or an actuarial question based on how you look at it.

But it probably comes down to a simple "expected life years saved" calculation. Will vaccinating teachers and keeping nursing homes locked down for awhile longer prevent more spread and ultimately deaths than giving it to nursing homes would? I tend to think so. There are not many "life years" left in nursing homes, and preventing community spread will also help keep it out of nursing homes.

If we're considering the greater good, it seems like a pretty obvious no brainer to me to put high-touch essential and service workers ahead of old folks' homes. Healthcare, education, retail, and bar/restaurant industry. Bonus that a lot of those people are the young folks who are spreading the virus around the community these days.

I'm using the idea that we want to lessen the pressure on the limited resources at the hospitals. This is the immediate goal because we've seen hospitals gets slammed with patients. While I agree that bar workers might be spreading the disease more than grandma at the old folks' home, grandma is more likely to die from COVID or take up an ICU bed.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Ramping up vax supply and delivery quickly will make some of these trade offs a lot easier to assess, but I am going to need to see to some real math put to it if you are proposing to put a huge list of 20 year old bartenders and service industry workers in front of a relatively short list of 70+ year old nursing home residents.  

Yeah, I'd want to see it too. I'm approaching this as speculating guy, not analytics guy, because that's way out of my wheelhouse. Part of my assessment is that it's much easier to lock down nursing homes for another few months than it is to keep kids from playing beer pong and fucking. Obviously in a perfect world we'd see some sort of central governing body use data to provide decision support here.

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm using the idea that we want to lessen the pressure on the limited resources at the hospitals. This is the immediate goal because we've seen hospitals gets slammed with patients. While I agree that bar workers might be spreading the disease more than grandma at the old folks' home, grandma is more likely to die from COVID or take up an ICU bed.

Good point. Didn't think about it from that angle. Makes sense that leadership is still trying to work through it. I'm glad I'm not the one making these decisions. Heavy stuff.

Edited November 30, 2020 by BradInATX

[Brisketexan 105119]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I'm using the idea that we want to lessen the pressure on the limited resources at the hospitals. This is the immediate goal because we've seen hospitals gets slammed with patients. While I agree that bar workers might be spreading the disease more than grandma at the old folks' home, grandma is more likely to die from COVID or take up an ICU bed.

This.

Any analysis needs to ask the question "who is occupying our ICU beds and dying, and how do we put a stop to that fast?"  That is priority 1B, alongside priority 1A, the people who are TENDING to those ICU beds.  Those are your top two groups - the people who would be in those beds, and the people who care for them.  That's the hottest burning fire, and the firefighters.  Makes sense to be our top priority.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

Just now, BradInATX said:

 

Good point. Didn't think about it from that angle. Makes sense that leadership is still trying to work through it. I'm glad I'm not the one making these decisions. Heavy stuff.

I hear ya. It's not easy to make ethical decision about rationing healthcare. I wouldn't want that on me as well.

We're lucky that for most, COVID is not a death sentence. Imagine a similar pandemic with something that kills 50% or even 20% of the infected but there is a limited vaccine supply. There could be riots in that scenario.

[Anastasis 23469]

To put some numbers to that, there are ~1.2MM nursing home residents in the entire US if these KFF data are accurate. (https://www.kff.org/other/state-indicator/number-of-nursing-facility-residents/?currentTimeframe=0&sortModel={"colId":"Location","sort":"asc"}) 

There are ~14MM in the restaurant industry alone, not sure how comprehensive this number is of the broader service industry (https://www.statista.com/statistics/203365/projected-restaurant-industry-employment-in-the-us/#:~:text=The number of people employed,million as of May 2019.)

 

The vaccine delivery numbers are elusive at the moment, but I recall pretty big numbers (100+ million from PFE alone) by end of 2020.  Knock that 1.2MM out with the frontline healthcare folks (~20MM) first wave imo.  

 

ETA: More recent PFE numbers are ~50MM globally in 2020, 1B+ in 2021. https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-announce-vaccine-candidate-against. Can't find good numbers for Moderna. 

 

Edited November 30, 2020 by Anastasis

[Brisketexan 105119]

I'm curious what other first-world countries (with smaller populations) are doing -- how they are setting up the tiers of people to be vaccinated, how many vaccines they'll be getting, when they expect to reach vaccine saturation, etc.

[BigDHornfan 6547]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

Of course they should.

Fucking A.

 

[Hate 20108]

I don’t see much of a reason to vaccinate anyone in LTC. I would absolutely require all people working at these facilities to get the vaccination and maybe even require visitors to have been vaccinated, but I don’t see any reason to vaccinate the residents in LTC. They aren’t out in the public and they aren’t spreaders. The only way they catch it is if it gets brought into the facility by guest or worker. I have a Grandpa turning 100 tomorrow in a LTC center and I think it would be a waste to vaccinate him. I guess the more active residents could receive the vaccine if they wanted to go back into public, but it shouldn’t be universal for all residents. I could be persuaded that the above is wrong though.

[JimmyJames 12271]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I think that I would order the priorities something like this:

1. Frontline healthcare workers.

2. Elderly (staged based on individual's age, comorbidities, LTC status., etc.). 

3. Essential workers (teachers at front of line, cops, firefighters, etc. prioritized).

4. Non-elderly high risk.

5. Everyone else. 

6. People who refuse to wear masks. Although they’re so fucking dumb they will reject the vaccine anyway. 

Edited November 30, 2020 by JimmyJames

[Brisketexan 105119]

31 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don’t see much of a reason to vaccinate anyone in LTC. I would absolutely require all people working at these facilities to get the vaccination and maybe even require visitors to have been vaccinated, but I don’t see any reason to vaccinate the residents in LTC. They aren’t out in the public and they aren’t spreaders. The only way they catch it is if it gets brought into the facility by guest or worker. I have a Grandpa turning 100 tomorrow in a LTC center and I think it would be a waste to vaccinate him. I guess the more active residents could receive the vaccine if they wanted to go back into public, but it shouldn’t be universal for all residents. I could be persuaded that the above is wrong though.

Well, we know these things: 1) they are super vulnerable if they catch it, and 2) they catch it from contact with others.

Who are the "others" they might be in contact with?  Staff, for sure.  We should definitely vaccinate staff.  But also......family and friends (visitors).  If we're going to allow people in long term care to EVER have visitors again, it sure seems like we oughta vaccinate the residents.  Not allowing them contact with the outside world for an even longer period is cruel and inhumane, and we're only talking about a couple million people.  A tiny fraction of the vaccine doses that will be available in the next 30-60 days.

[Brisketexan 105119]

1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

6. Trumpkins who refuse to wear masks. Although they’re so fucking dumb they will reject the vaccine anyway. 

Dude, they will ALL reject the vaccine.  The bridge at Hancock over Mopac yesterday had some big anti-vax sign hanging about no liability for Pfizer or something.  The anti-vax crowd is already worked up into a masturbatory furor -- they have lived their whole lives for this moment.

[Hate 20108]

That’s why I proposed that visitors should have to have been vaccinated. I just wonder what the vaccination will do to someone like my Grandpa. I would be curious to see how many 100 year olds were included in the trial phases.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

I just wonder what the vaccination will do to someone like my Grandpa. I would be curious to see how many 100 year olds were included in the trial phases.

This is an extremely salient point and important for consideration. By prioritizing the frailest population we are probably going to generate a lot of safety signals. The vax maybe doesn't perform as well in that group, or has some unforeseen effects in the extremely frail elderly and you pop off a few deaths or other serious events that the media and twatters run with, and you potentially undermine confidence in the vaccine among a broad population of people.  The people hanging signs off the hancock bridge will have a field day with it.  You roll out among otherwise relatively healthy people and you lower the risk of something like that happening.

I still say you hit the nursing and assisted living homes pretty hard, and deal with whatever shakes out. 

 

[Hefeweizen 5320]

12 minutes ago, Hate said:

That’s why I proposed that visitors should have to have been vaccinated. I just wonder what the vaccination will do to someone like my Grandpa. I would be curious to see how many 100 year olds were included in the trial phases.

I think part of it is that the studies didn’t evaluate whether the vaccination prevents transmission.  Just whether it prevents the individual from developing the disease.  It’s a very good point if it does prevent transmission, but otherwise they need the vaccine too.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

People are going to freak out when some the recently vaccinated feel poorly after receiving the vaccine. Which can actually be a great sign as that shows your body is reacting to it. Which is what you want.  Some will interpret it as Bill Gate's tracker/sterilization process working.

Agree with the statements above that the unmasked people will most likely have a vaccination rate in the low single digits. 

[Brisketexan 105119]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

People are going to freak out when some the recently vaccinated feel poorly after receiving the vaccine. Which can actually be a great sign as that shows your body is reacting to it. Which is what you want.  Some will interpret it as Bill Gate's tracker/sterilization process working.

Agree with the statements above that the unmasked people will most likely have a vaccination rate in the low single digits. 

Oh, and those people are already flipping out online -- see the discussions about boycotting Qantas, which is going to require vaccination to fly.  "This is how the world gov't controls us - requires the Mark of the Beast to engage in commerce!"  Fuck 'em.  Fuck 'em all.

[Hate 20108]

I think part of it is that the studies didn’t evaluate whether the vaccination prevents transmission.  Just whether it prevents the individual from developing the disease.  It’s a very good point if it does prevent transmission, but otherwise they need the vaccine too.

And that’s fair, although I would assume that you have to have the disease in order to spread it, right?

It seems to me that we should get the vaccination to the spreaders first and foremost. It seems like we have protected the LTC centers fairly well over the last few months (unless I missed something). Require staff and visitors to LTC to get the vaccine and still require them to wear masks while at work or visiting and the residents are pretty well protected. The 20-75year olds out in public need the vaccinations more than the LTC residents as far as getting to “herd immunity”.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

SIAP

TLDR: 54 year old from New Braunfels. Healthy and wasn't worried about COVID. Co-worker gets COVID in August. Still not worried. But almost dies from covid and requires a double lung transplant to live. All within 4 months.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/life/article/COVID-didn-t-scare-him-Four-months-later-15751465.php

[Pato del Muerto 52492]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

SIAP

TLDR: 54 year old from New Braunfels. Healthy and wasn't worried about COVID. Co-worker gets COVID in August. Still not worried. But almost dies from covid and requires a double lung transplant to live. All within 4 months.

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/life/article/COVID-didn-t-scare-him-Four-months-later-15751465.php

Should have let him die. If a person won’t take some basic measures to try and avoid infection, why should the healthcare industry take any measures to save him?

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

10 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Should have let him die. If a person won’t take some basic measures to try and avoid infection, why should the healthcare industry take any measures to save him?

ah, yes. The Ivan Drago oath that some newer doctors take. 

[dcar00 14182]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This is an extremely salient point and important for consideration. By prioritizing the frailest population we are probably going to generate a lot of safety signals. The vax maybe doesn't perform as well in that group, or has some unforeseen effects in the extremely frail elderly and you pop off a few deaths or other serious events that the media and twatters run with, and you potentially undermine confidence in the vaccine among a broad population of people.  The people hanging signs off the hancock bridge will have a field day with it.  You roll out among otherwise relatively healthy people and you lower the risk of something like that happening.

I still say you hit the nursing and assisted living homes pretty hard, and deal with whatever shakes out. 

 

I agree with this.  you need to hit the nursing homes(assuming most are 70+) hard especially if the therapeutics are doing the job for the 50 and 60 year old crowd and healthcare.  the true anti vaxxers are a small population.   if nothing happens with the healthcare workers everyone will be on board eventually.  most reasonable people understand that there will be situations in giving vax to older frail populations.  I believe the situations will be minimal.

[Bevo 13576]

6 hours ago, Anastasis said:

This is an extremely salient point and important for consideration. By prioritizing the frailest population we are probably going to generate a lot of safety signals. The vax maybe doesn't perform as well in that group, or has some unforeseen effects in the extremely frail elderly and you pop off a few deaths or other serious events that the media and twatters run with, and you potentially undermine confidence in the vaccine among a broad population of people.  The people hanging signs off the hancock bridge will have a field day with it.  You roll out among otherwise relatively healthy people and you lower the risk of something like that happening.

I still say you hit the nursing and assisted living homes pretty hard, and deal with whatever shakes out. 

 

Of course, the vaccine will not work nearly as well with the elderly. I don't think the safety of the mRNA vaccines will be a big problem with this patient population, though. The adenovirus vaccines may have more issues due to the immune response against the adenovirus transfer vector.

[BradInATX 9208]

Second spike in Austin has flattened out, which is a good thing. Have to see what Thanksgiving does. I guess we'll start seeing that early next week in the hospitalizations. If we stay stable through end of next week I'll take that as a great sign.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

6 hours ago, Hate said:

I don’t see much of a reason to vaccinate anyone in LTC. I would absolutely require all people working at these facilities to get the vaccination and maybe even require visitors to have been vaccinated, but I don’t see any reason to vaccinate the residents in LTC. They aren’t out in the public and they aren’t spreaders. The only way they catch it is if it gets brought into the facility by guest or worker. I have a Grandpa turning 100 tomorrow in a LTC center and I think it would be a waste to vaccinate him. I guess the more active residents could receive the vaccine if they wanted to go back into public, but it shouldn’t be universal for all residents. I could be persuaded that the above is wrong though.

People living in these facilities have had a pretty miserable life since March.  My parents are in an independent living place, a mix of small homes and apartments with central common areas.  Pre-COVID, it was a very social place.  Much of the living space is common and a lot of the apartments are small one-bedrooms.  The common spaces have been closed during COVID and a lot of the residents have spent most of their lives in their tiny apartments.  They get food delivered to their room twice a day but that's about it.

Every doctor trip is a chance for one of them to catch it and maybe spread it and maybe die.  One of my parents' friends took just one trip out to see family with masks and distance and it wasn't enough ... she was dead less than two weeks later.

Vaccinating the staff and the residents of this place would change their world.  Show up, hit 'em all on one day, show up three weeks later, hit 'em all again, wait a week or so .... and these people can all go outside their rooms and see each other again without as much fear of dying from COVID or killing their friends.  Mentally, it would be a huge boost for everyone living there.

Yes, we all want to do these things too but I can go for a drive, or a walk, or even risk going to a restaurant if I want.  Many of these folks can not, and they've been stuck with the same four walls since March with little contact with friends or family.  Yes they are old and yes they are more likely to die anyway, but I am willing to wait a few weeks longer if they can move closer to the front of the line.

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Here is pre-wire for Travis County for 11/30. I will have age demo in morning.

332 cases & 35 admits, 218 hospitalized (up from 205 on 11/29)

 

[Hate 20108]

People living in these facilities have had a pretty miserable life since March.  My parents are in an independent living place, a mix of small homes and apartments with central common areas.  Pre-COVID, it was a very social place.  Much of the living space is common and a lot of the apartments are small one-bedrooms.  The common spaces have been closed during COVID and a lot of the residents have spent most of their lives in their tiny apartments.  They get food delivered to their room twice a day but that's about it.
Every doctor trip is a chance for one of them to catch it and maybe spread it and maybe die.  One of my parents' friends took just one trip out to see family with masks and distance and it wasn't enough ... she was dead less than two weeks later.
Vaccinating the staff and the residents of this place would change their world.  Show up, hit 'em all on one day, show up three weeks later, hit 'em all again, wait a week or so .... and these people can all go outside their rooms and see each other again without as much fear of dying from COVID or killing their friends.  Mentally, it would be a huge boost for everyone living there.
Yes, we all want to do these things too but I can go for a drive, or a walk, or even risk going to a restaurant if I want.  Many of these folks can not, and they've been stuck with the same four walls since March with little contact with friends or family.  Yes they are old and yes they are more likely to die anyway, but I am willing to wait a few weeks longer if they can move closer to the front of the line.

I get all of that as well. I just view the LTCs through the lens of my 100 year old Grandpa. It’s why I said that the younger and more active residents should get the vaccine, but that may not be enough to keep everyone safe.

[BrazilHorn 6599]

332 cases in Travis Co yesterday with 35 admits. Fairly regular distribution across the age groups.

I would expect to see 4-5 deaths from yesterday's results as based on sheer number of cases in the >60 year old groups that is what the mortality rate to date would show.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 11/30 vs 11/29	2	12	43	79	71	42	37	22	18	6	332
% of Daily Change	0.60%	3.61%	12.95%	23.80%	21.39%	12.65%	11.14%	6.63%	5.42%	1.81%
% of Total Cases	0.50%	3.00%	9.62%	27.63%	20.85%	15.34%	11.26%	6.45%	3.21%	2.14%	38,377

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

Daily current hospitalizations in Texas Med Center in Houston. What could be scary is that on the bottom chart, the slope of the last week or so is about the same angle as early June before it really took off. But the current level has a higher starting point than June. I hope I'm wrong but it could get scary in the upcoming weeks.

[Hpara759 1778]

5 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 but it could get scary in the upcoming weeks.

2?

[BrazilHorn 6599]

Here are today's Travis County results (I will have age based demo tomorrow)

380 cases, 45 admits & 234 people hospitalized

The 380 are the most single day since July 21st

Hold onto your socks team.

[atomheartbevo 89657]

12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Here are today's Travis County results (I will have age based demo tomorrow)

380 cases, 45 admits & 234 people hospitalized

The 380 are the most single day since July 21st

Hold onto your socks team.

March was so damned long ago.

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/austin/breaking-news-two-presumptive-positive-cases-of-covid-19-confirmed-in-the-austin-travis-county-area-austin-public-health/

Quote

Mar 13, 2020 / 02:04 AM CDT / Updated: Mar 13, 2020 / 06:34 PM CDT

AUSTIN (KXAN) — Austin confimed another case of the coronavirus disease following its announcement of the first two cases in the county Friday. Austin Public Health said early Friday morning it received two presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 in Travis County. These are the first two confirmed cases in this area.

“Austin and Travis County has joined a seemingly growing number of cities and counties that have positive cases in their area,” Austin Public Health interim health authority Dr. Mark Escott said at a press conference.

“Austin Public Health has received two presumptive positive cases of COVID-19 overnight in our jurisdiction. These represent the first two cases in our area,” he said.

A man in his 60s is hospitalized, and a woman in her 30s is quarantined at her home, Dr. Escott said. Both tested positive for COVID-19.

The woman is a Galveston County resident aged between 30 and 35, Galveston County Health District confirmed.

She was tested at St. David’s Emergency Center-Bee Cave, and was then sent home for self-quarantine that same day.

“We understand this presumptive positive case may concern our community, but at this time there is no evidence of community spread,” said Dr. Philip Keiser, Galveston County local health authority

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

That number might be high for Austin, but honestly, it’s still really low compared to a number of other metro areas in Texas.