Jump to content

COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
in Daily Texan

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 13.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

Posted Images

BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

Travis County with 55 admits and 367 cases (up ~110 cases from last Wednesday. Still a slight tilt to younger age groups. I wonder if folks are testing kids in advance of holiday travel

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/15 vs 12/14 2 23 27 112 79 44 45 20 12 3 367
% of Daily Change 0.54% 6.27% 7.36% 30.52% 21.53% 11.99% 12.26% 5.45% 3.27% 0.82%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 3.24% 9.68% 27.44% 20.85% 15.19% 11.32% 6.49% 3.18% 2.08%  

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

Welp - Travis County showing no signs of unfucking itself this week. 545 cases today. For those of you following at home the last three days have been 1,525 cases. That is a huge three day stretch. One of the worst we've seen since early July. Admits were 68. This is the most since July 18th. There are now 320 folks hospitalized (up 11 from yesterday). Couple areas of concern for deaths: 1) large overall number to work percentages off of 2) 60 to 69 over indexed to normal levels. I expect ~7 deaths from today's admits. 7.5 deaths has been our weekly average the last 8 weeks or so. Shit is off the rails in times for holidays. Be smart.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/17 vs 12/16 4 32 61 115 108 77 57 53 19 19 545
% of Daily Change 0.73% 5.87% 11.19% 21.10% 19.82% 14.13% 10.46% 9.72% 3.49% 3.49%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 3.27% 9.70% 27.37% 20.84% 15.18% 11.31% 6.53% 3.19% 2.10%  
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Does anybody know estimated hospital capacity for Austin MSA?  Seems like back in July we were up to ~500 inpatients and I don’t recall much being said about the system maxing out.

There are 483 ICU beds across the three big networks: Seton, Scott & White, St. David's. Obviously there are other ICU beds across Austin Heart Hospital and smaller joints but the big three have the bulk of them. There are 94 people in ICU as of today. Challenge is as of Dec 7th these ICU beds were at 87% capacity. Shit has got worse since then, so with regular ICU needs + CV19 ICU needs, I have no doubt we are running up to max. There were 75 CV19 ICU patients on Dec 7th so we have added 19 since then.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

Travis County with 415 cases today & 53 admits. 332 people hospitalized (up 12 from yesterday). Decent spike in the 50 to 59 age group as well as the 1 to 9. Nice thing is 60+ groups are under their normal share which is good to see. Still a big number base though for those groups. We are at the Stage 5 trigger point but so far they've held back. Governor has said he's not closing shit so it will be an interesting battle to see what happens.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/18 vs 12/17 1 22 36 101 99 40 68 24 12 12 415
% of Daily Change 0.24% 5.30% 8.67% 24.34% 23.86% 9.64% 16.39% 5.78% 2.89% 2.89%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 3.29% 9.69% 27.34% 20.87% 15.13% 11.36% 6.53% 3.18% 2.11%  
  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,659

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Based on what I saw just running around a few errands, shit is going to get worse before it gets better in ATX.  Hope that I am wrong. 

Ironically, we saw more people masking up around our neighborhood park this afternoon.

I don't watch local news (read their sites, don't watch the broadcasts), but I'm wondering if the coverage is shifting to "oh fuck, numbers are climbing!"

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

274 cases for Travis County today with 47 admits. 323 people in the hospital (down 9 from yesterday). Deaths were updated through 12/19. Third straight week with 11 deaths. 100% of them from the 60+ age groups. 60 to 69 (6), 70 to 79 (1), 80+ (4). These three groups make up 81.82% of all CV19 deaths for Travis County. If you have holiday plans that involved elderly folks only you can run the risk/reward for seeing them vs them potentially dying of Covid. The data says if they are >80 they have ~ a 1 in 5 chance of dying. 70 to 79 ~ a 1 in 10 chance of dying, 60 to 69 ~ a 1 in 20 chance of dying.

No big shocks in terms of age distribution. Still heavier spread in the younger age groups.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/19 vs 12/18 4 13 23 86 65 32 31 11 5 4 274
% of Daily Change 1.46% 4.74% 8.39% 31.39% 23.72% 11.68% 11.31% 4.01% 1.82% 1.46%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 3.30% 9.68% 27.36% 20.89% 15.11% 11.36% 6.51% 3.18% 2.10%  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

1st let me just say Kidney Stones suck. That's all. Second another bad day in terms of cases (422) for Travis County but for the first time in a week admits are <40 (32). There are 316 people hospitalized (down 7 from yesterday). So while cases are much higher than last Sunday, at least admits took a decline.

Still skewing on younger side which is what we want to see all things being equal.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/20 vs 12/19 0 12 49 122 90 76 39 26 4 4 422
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.84% 11.61% 28.91% 21.33% 18.01% 9.24% 6.16% 0.95% 0.95%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 3.29% 9.70% 27.38% 20.89% 15.13% 11.34% 6.51% 3.15% 2.09%  
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

Not a great day for Travis County yet again with 537 cases. This is up ~120 from last Monday so we are heading in wrong direction. Tuesday is normally "true up" day so we shall see what happens manana. 56 admits today reversing a couple of days <50. Of particular concern is the over performance in the 80+ group clocking in at nearly double their normal average share of cases. With 22 cases at a 21% mortality rate I would expect to see 4-5 people die from this group alone in the upcoming weeks. Otherwise cases performed in line with what I would expect to see. Concern is for the 60 to 69 & 70 to 79 groups is that while they did better than normal they overall case load is still very high to do the math off of. Just depressing heading into Christmas thinking of the run of families dealing with hospitalization & potentially death. 333 people hospitalized currently (up 17 from yesterday). Hold on to your butts.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/21 vs 12/20 1 23 63 144 95 78 63 29 19 22 537
% of Daily Change 0.19% 4.28% 11.73% 26.82% 17.69% 14.53% 11.73% 5.40% 3.54% 4.10%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 3.30% 9.72% 27.37% 20.85% 15.13% 11.35% 6.49% 3.16% 2.11%  
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

The TCAD site is borked for the age based demographic data. However I have the overall data and it is not good.

672 cases today (this as near as I can tell is the third highest day ever for CV19 cases in Travis County). 70 admits which we have not seen a day >70 since mid-July. There are 349 people in the hospital (up 16 from yesterday).

I know it's Christmas and people are planning to see their grandparents/parents etc. Make sure you have done the math on mortality rate if they are >60.

Ideally I will be able to pull the age based info tomorrow morning. We are in a time machine back to July.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:


English mutated strain? Why so many so sudden?

IMO it’s a combination of things:

1) Lot of people getting tested for holiday travel/activities 

2) People in general just saying “fuck it” and getting together/going to bars (just had a number of bars in Austin cited)

3) Hospitals seem to be better at treating as our total hospitalized aren’t scaling to match admit counts  Deaths while higher haven’t yet ramped off charts either (although I do think next couple of weeks stand to be 15 plus)

4) who knows  you’d think with a common illness like this we could all rally around simple things to do  unfortunately we can’t  

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52,492

Posted
Posted

Because too many people are in the “if masks work then why are we still wearing them and if masks don’t work then why are we still wearing them” or”2 weeks to lower the curve has turned into 8 months” crowd.  They can’t get their fucking pea brains around the fact that until we ALL taken the recommended or mandated precautions for a decent amount of time, it won’t be successful. 
 

the people saying masks don’t work and open things up are the reason masks aren’t working and things are closed or restricted, and they can’t understand it. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,599

Posted
Posted

Here is the two day view for Travis County based on age demographics (they had a data linkage error yesterday that was pulling limited cases). For today (12/23). Travis Co had 375 cases which is up 8 from this time last week. 77 admits is back to mid-July numbers. There are 373 people in the hospital with CV19 (most since 7/27). Basically things are not looking good for the home team currently. Once again the age demographic view below is across two days. No real "gotchas" over the past two days from the age based data. Just a fuckload of cases.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/22 vs 12/21 6 51 106 263 208 167 108 77 31 30 1047
% of Daily Change 0.57% 4.87% 10.12% 25.12% 19.87% 15.95% 10.32% 7.35% 2.96% 2.87%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 3.34% 9.73% 27.32% 20.83% 15.15% 11.32% 6.51% 3.15% 2.13%  
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24,908

Posted
Posted

So serious question be interested in any docs here weighing in on.  And before I ask, no I am not belittling Covid, calling it the flu blowing it off....wear a mask, distance etc.  That said where the fuck is old Mr Influenza?  You would figure a disease that spreads in much of the same ways that the Covid that is currently butt fucking us would also be out there doing its generations old thing but by all accounts it's at unusually low levels.  Less virulent strains this season?  The old man say, "fuck it Covid you got this shit I'm gonna head to Bora Bora?"  Just one of those things that generally intrigues me as so many people get it this time of year doing the same things we now all should be avoiding but clearly are not.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Futbol ... 🤫995🤫 ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Business and Markets ... Cloak Room ... Help ... For Sale ... Board Discussion ... Subscribe!... Donate!... Advertise... COOKIE MONSTER!

×
×
  • Create New...