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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

By justhookit
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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I gotta wonder how most people are getting covid at this point of the pandemic

For whatever reason, I seem to personally know more and more people who have been getting it.   Not "my high school buddy's dad has it/died of it" but "my high school buddy has it" kind of thing.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Surly Bevo said:

In their/friend's houses.

One person in a household goes to a spreader event where nobody wears a mask. A wedding, small dinner party, 3 to 5 families together for a holiday then brings it home or to work and continues the spreading. That’s my anecdotal take but I’ve seen it hundreds of times in the last 6+ months.

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B00M

B00M 6436

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I gotta wonder how most people are getting covid at this point of the pandemic

It's more widespread than ever so..?

These are all recent... My aunt in Cali has no idea. Never gave it to her husband. Coworker's wife, no idea, he never got it. Boss's wife got it from her brother, gave it to him. All smart, healthy, cautious people, all mild symptoms. 

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Hate

Hate 20130

Posted
Posted

My uncle who just passed because of Covid only went out for doctors appointments. He had to be hospitalized a few weeks ago after a fall, but other than that did not interact with the public at all. He most likely got it at the hospital. Somehow, my mom who is overweight, diabetic, and a former smoker of 50 years has gotten it and managed to shake it off so far. She would be the prime candidate to die from this, but seems to be recovering from it. This is the weirdest goddam virus

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Fudbelty

Fudbelty 2789

Posted
Posted

Officially official fuck this virus. I’ve posted my story here. I’m recovered and everything seems to have returned to normal.

It’s fucking insane/frightening the amount of people that have had/are getting this shit now. A good buddy passed away last night from this. Honestly it doesn’t matter age, weight, or any other issues. This shit swept in, took him down, and four days later he’s gone. Fuck man.

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Deej

Deej 76882

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, B00M said:

It's more widespread than ever so..?

These are all recent... My aunt in Cali has no idea. Never gave it to her husband. Coworker's wife, no idea, he never got it. Boss's wife got it from her brother, gave it to him. All smart, healthy, cautious people, all mild symptoms. 

Being cautious may be why they have mild cases if their caution limited the viral load. 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted

Big day in Travis County today with 527 cases (down 10 from prior Monday). I am nervous for what Tuesday holds as that is normally our "true up" day. (Last Tuesday was 672), I won't be shocked to see us crest 700 tomorrow.

68 admits taking the number hospitalized to 422 (up 18 from yesterday). I expect to see ~4-5 deaths from today's cases in the upcoming weeks. I don't love seeing the 60 to 69 group way over normal performance.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/28 vs 12/27 4 24 60 123 104 69 70 50 13 10 527
% of Daily Change 0.76% 4.55% 11.39% 23.34% 19.73% 13.09% 13.28% 9.49% 2.47% 1.90%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 3.39% 9.72% 27.24% 20.85% 15.11% 11.34% 6.54% 3.15% 2.12%  
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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27582

Posted
Posted

All the big hospitals remain closed for elective procedures but another issue is coming up: doing routine cases in specialty hospitals. There is always a small chance you will need a higher level of care due to complications. Now we have nowhere to transfer to. ICU beds in north Texas are completely full in most of the trauma centers and close to capacity at the smaller facilities. I have a sick old lady who really needs surgery but has a bad heart. She told me she doesn’t care if she dies she wants her surgery now. This really sucks 

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UpperWestside

UpperWestside 6185

Posted
Posted
19 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

All the big hospitals remain closed for elective procedures but another issue is coming up: doing routine cases in specialty hospitals. There is always a small chance you will need a higher level of care due to complications. Now we have nowhere to transfer to. ICU beds in north Texas are completely full in most of the trauma centers and close to capacity at the smaller facilities. I have a sick old lady who really needs surgery but has a bad heart. She told me she doesn’t care if she dies she wants her surgery now. This really sucks 

I am certain that this has been mentioned here, but first I am sorry for what you are having to see right now. 

Second our selfishness in not listening to the guidance from doctors and scientists about gathering together over the holidays is not just going to spread COVID, but it is going to overwhelm hospitals to the point where other people die because there is quite literally no way to take care of them. I think when it is all said and done and the history is written about this and the facts are uncovered we will see a death toll in this country in the six figures of people who did not have COVID, but died because hospitals were completely overwhelmed taking care of COVID patients so they died at home, many of them alone. If you are choosing to thumb your nose at doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals that are pleading with you to do your part and you refuse then there is blood on your hands. 

Keep doing what you are doing Sawbonz and save as many folks as you are able to. Thank you.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted

At least one Austin hospital is about to convert other areas to impromptu ICU. We're basically back to where we were at the pandemic's worst, with incoming Christmas and New Year's surges inevitable. It's about to get real bad. I'm sure some of the docs and nurses here know more than me and have more detail, but everyone is bracing for an absolute shitstorm.



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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13517

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, South Austin said:

My daughter’s high school basketball team has a game tomorrow. Really surprised they haven’t cancelled with the way things are trending.

I imagine the coach, AD and principal know the headaches they will create if they do that.

I don’t mean this as a personal attack, but if you think the school should cancel it, why aren’t you canceling it for her? Maybe other parents are also waiting for someone to be the first parent to do so.

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South Austin

South Austin 52551

Posted
Posted
Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I imagine the coach, AD and principal know the headaches they will create if they do that.

I don’t mean this as a personal attack, but if you think the school should cancel it, why aren’t you canceling it for her? Maybe other parents are also waiting for someone to be the first parent to do so.

Not taken personally. I’m not as freaked out as others by my daughter’s participation in basketball. While in close contact on the court, they’re all masked at all times, no fans allowed in the gym, and we all watch the games on YouTube. So I’m not inclined to pull her out.

But objectively, I’m surprised that two AISD schools are proceeding with a game this week, especially when City/County officials are talking about the possibility of a curfew later this week.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13517

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Not taken personally. I’m not as freaked out as others by my daughter’s participation in basketball. While in close contact on the court, they’re all masked at all times, no fans allowed in the gym, and we all watch the games on YouTube. So I’m not inclined to pull her out.

But objectively, I’m surprised that two AISD schools are proceeding with a game this week, especially when City/County officials are talking about the possibility of a curfew later this week.

Makes sense. I was envisioning some fans in the stands as well.

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Newdoc

Newdoc 3448

Posted
Posted (edited)

It’s going to be bad. Seat of the pants numbers are bad as we diagnosed a lot of people with COVID in my clinic alone yesterday. Lots of people who went to church Christmas Eve and family Christmas while they were becoming ill. 

Edited by Newdoc
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted

Travis County with another shitty Tuesday. 697 cases (almost crested the 700 I was expecting) with 68 admits again. 434 folks in the hospital (up 12 from yesterday). Based on age numbers which are fairly normal but still high I would expect to see 7-10 deaths in coming weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/29 vs 12/28 0 22 74 156 151 128 83 36 24 23 697
% of Daily Change 0.00% 3.16% 10.62% 22.38% 21.66% 18.36% 11.91% 5.16% 3.44% 3.30%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 3.38% 9.73% 27.17% 20.86% 15.15% 11.35% 6.52% 3.15% 2.14%  
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted

Local pharmacies can do vaccinations for those in Phase 1B

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/local-pharmacies-can-start-vaccinating-people-in-1b-phase-immediately/

Quote

“All providers that have received COVID-19 vaccine must immediately vaccinate healthcare workers, Texans over the age of 65 and people with medical conditions that put them at a greater risk of severe disease or death from COVID-19. No vaccine should be kept in reserve.”

 

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achooloco

achooloco 1072

Posted
Posted

my folks are on a list (both over 75). one of their married couple friends in the optimist club have a daughter in san antonio; somehow someone didn't show up for their vaccine this last weekend, so the daughter called up the parents b/c otherwise the doses were going to have to be thrown out or something. They hustled down to take the spot expecting to wait in line and spend the night with said daughter but where back in austin and vaccinated that same evening. 

not sure if some vaccinations are going to waste b/c people don't show up or what, but there are seemingly "legal" ways to skip to the head of the line for older folk or those already cleared to get the vaccine. just got to hustle and be available at a moment's notice.

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Chet Steadman

Chet Steadman 940

Posted
Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, achooloco said:

my folks are on a list (both over 75). one of their married couple friends in the optimist club have a daughter in san antonio; somehow someone didn't show up for their vaccine this last weekend, so the daughter called up the parents b/c otherwise the doses were going to have to be thrown out or something. They hustled down to take the spot expecting to wait in line and spend the night with said daughter but where back in austin and vaccinated that same evening. 

not sure if some vaccinations are going to waste b/c people don't show up or what, but there are seemingly "legal" ways to skip to the head of the line for older folk or those already cleared to get the vaccine. just got to hustle and be available at a moment's notice.

I wonder what the procedure is in a few weeks when they need their booster.  Do they get to skip the line again or do they just hope there’s reserves this time around too?

Edited by Chet Steadman
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achooloco

achooloco 1072

Posted
Posted
52 minutes ago, Chet Steadman said:

I wonder what the procedure is in a few weeks when they need their booster.  Do they get to skip the line again or do they just hope there’s reserves this time around too?

They were told they have to go back to that place and get the booster there and there only, their spot/syringe/shot is reserved. They’re olds with comorbidities too so I don’t view it as skipping the line so much as hustling to an open spot (isn’t Texas prioritizing olds over emergency personnel?). Now if they were middle aged or young and non-essential personnel I’d view that as more of a skipping the line thing.  

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Pasken

Pasken 1309

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, DaysOff said:


What a stupid honorary crab cake aggy this clown is.

The fact that the tweet I was sarcastically commenting on from a week old post didn't come through in your quote makes your reply a little confusing. This is what I was mocking: 

 

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texhorn

texhorn 351

Posted
Posted
Paxton says he will take legal action if Austin tries any kind of restrictions on businesses to slow this thing down.  
 
https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/texas-ag-to-austin-mayor-i-will-take-legal-action-against-you-if-covid-19-restriction-order-not-pulled-back/

Man, this guy is just an epic piece of shit of a human being.
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted

Another not great day for Travis County with 546 cases. We also have passed over 50k total cases so we have that going for us. 79 admits (highest since July 2nd and the 2nd highest ever). Crazy thing is the number of people hospitalized is flat at 434 so the hospitals are churning people in/out at a crazy clip.

From a demographic basis no real shockers in the age groupings today. We are just dealing with big numbers overall and that isn't a good thing for older age groups.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/30 vs 12/29 6 27 42 146 127 62 61 37 17 21 546
% of Daily Change 1.10% 4.95% 7.69% 26.74% 23.26% 11.36% 11.17% 6.78% 3.11% 3.85%  
% of Total Cases 0.53% 3.40% 9.71% 27.16% 20.89% 15.11% 11.35% 6.53% 3.15% 2.16%  
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted (edited)

And we are getting sued.

https://www.kxan.com/news/texas-politics/texas-ag-to-austin-mayor-i-will-take-legal-action-against-you-if-covid-19-restriction-order-not-pulled-back/

You can discuss why we are getting sued in CR, but just a heads up that things are probably going to get ugly/stupid in the Austin area over this. 

Might as well start prepping the civic center for covid beds again.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89774

Posted
Posted

This was a surprise

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/travis-county-judge-to-hold-hearing-on-pandemic-related-restaurant-restrictions-lawsuit/

Quote

 A Travis County district court judge’s decision Thursday evening will allow orders from the City of Austin and Travis County to stay in effect, keeping the New Year’s holiday restrictions on dine-in services in the city and county.

Later on Thursday night, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton filed an appeal in a last-minute effort to try and halt the restrictions before they take effect at 10:30 p.m. That appeal was rejected by the Third Court of Appeals.

Quote

Earlier on Thursday, 201st District Court said Judge Amy Clark Meachum decided to deny the Texas Attorney General’s request for temporary restraining order and temporary injunction on the restrictions. This decision came after a virtual hearing which lasted more than three hours. Meachum then took more than an hour to reach her decision. 

In a letter to all the attorneys involved, Meachum wrote the Texas Attorney General’s Office did not demonstrate “a probable right to relief” and did not demonstrate the Austin-Travis County orders showed “imminent and irreparable harm.”

 

Quote

The City of Austin and Travis County released orders Tuesday that restaurants can only offer takeoutoptions from 10:30 p.m. to 6 a.m. from Dec. 31 to Jan. 3. The city also strongly encouraged those restaurants to only offer that drive-thru, curbside pick-up, take-out or delivery services between 6 a.m. and 10:30 p.m.

Travis County Judge Andy Brown released a statement after the ruling noting he issued the county order “based on the advice of our health officials, including Dr. Mark Escott, and the alarming increase of COVID-19 cases in Travis County.”

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted

Here is the age demo data for NYE vs 12/30. Travis reporting was closed yesterday but today's will update with a two day batch at ~5pm or so.

Not good day on NYE for the >60 groups as they all outperformed their normal share. Based on numbers here I would expect in upcoming weeks to see between 4-6 deaths from this day's cases alone.

There were as noted above 81 admits which is 2nd highest.

Stay safe amigos y amigas

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 12/31 vs 12/30 4 12 38 91 82 56 54 32 19 13 401
% of Daily Change 1.00% 2.99% 9.48% 22.69% 20.45% 13.97% 13.47% 7.98% 4.74% 3.24%  
% of Total Cases 0.54% 3.40% 9.71% 27.13% 20.89% 15.10% 11.37% 6.54% 3.16% 2.17%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted

Here are the first couple of days of the new year combined for Travis County as reporting was down yesterday. For Jan 1st & 2nd there are a combined 963 cases. No crazy age group share vs the normal spread. Just running a lot of cases. Hospitalizations for first two days of the new year are 70 & 71 respectively.

Full steam ahead.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/2 vs 12/31 5 39 91 244 221 133 119 67 18 26 963
% of Daily Change 0.52% 4.05% 9.45% 25.34% 22.95% 13.81% 12.36% 6.96% 1.87% 2.70%  
% of Total Cases 0.54% 3.41% 9.71% 27.10% 20.93% 15.08% 11.39% 6.55% 3.14% 2.18%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted

Mortality data updated through 1/2 for Travis County and it was not a good week. 19 deaths (highest since Sept 12). Heavily concentrated as normal in the >60 cohorts with 17 of the 19 deaths residing there. With 10 deaths in the 80+ range that group had its highest week over week increase since 8/15. I think the next month is going to be bad for mortality overall and in particular in the three age groups comprising 60 & up.

Breakdown is:

40 to 49 (1)

50 to 59 (1)

60 to 69 (5)

70 to 79 (2)

80+ (10)

 

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6628

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

We’ve been seeing a large chunk of the olds with Covid in Cen Tex since a few days post Christmas due to family get togethers and surprise, Junior’s allergy symptoms on Christmas Eve was Covid. Hopefully the olds stayed home for NYE.

Ultimately old people are betting with their lives when it comes to family get togethers. If you are over 80 you have a 1 in 5 chance of dying if you catch Covid. I guess seeing the grandkids could be worth it if you think you only have a couple of years left but that is a hell of a dice roll and a lot of fucking guilt to load on someone.

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