COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[Gatorubet 30,083]

Drove up South Congress (SoCo to the hipsters) this Beautiful Sunday afternoon. Area was packed with young people walking around and jamming the outdoor patios & decks at the restaurants. I’d guesstimate that maybe half these educated woke people were wearing masks. 

They are likely not gonna die from it. Non-woke olds will. Opinions vary. All should wear masks. Non-woke olds dying is a step in the right direction.

[Armybrat 40,725]

Huh?

[utee94 15,745]

34 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Huh?

Sounds like he's wishing death on old people based on their political opinions conflicting with his own.

 

 

[Captainant 27,442]

31 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Sounds like he's wishing death on old people based on their political opinions conflicting with his own.

Refusing to wear a facemask and follow health best practices isn't a political opinion, it's dumb selfish assholes putting themselves and others at risk. Fewer people engaging in risk-seeking behavior is a good thing in the middle of a global pandemic. 

[utee94 15,745]

10 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Non-woke olds dying is a step in the right direction.

 

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Refusing to wear a facemask and follow health best practices isn't a political opinion, it's dumb selfish assholes putting themselves and others at risk. Fewer people engaging in risk-seeking behavior is a good thing in the middle of a global pandemic. 

Your ranting aside, he most certainly wished death on old people with political opinions that conflict with his own.

 

[Armybrat 40,725]

There are a lot of people, young & old, who are confused and don’t know who to trust. So, let’s just hope they all die, is that it?

[Captainant 27,442]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

 

Your ranting aside, he most certainly wished death on old people with political opinions that conflict with his own.

 

Lmao two sentences is a weak ass rant my dude. I guess I read the context that comment was made in to mean "non-woke" == "covid is a hoax/muh freedoms/facemasks are communism". If those folks want to earn their darwin award, let em have at it. Just keep them away from my dad in a nursing home. 

[mdmost 42,843]

I believe Gator was doing a sarcastic sendup of the young people aren't going to get it, NBD types that were out in force on these threads early on in the spring and summer. 

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

398 cases today in Travis County with 83 admits. The 83 admits is our new 2nd highest admissions. We also have 484 people in the hospital which is the 2nd highest day as well. The youngest and oldest outperformed their normal share today. I expect 4-6 deaths in upcoming weeks from today's cases.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 1/3 vs 1/2	6	19	32	105	86	56	34	31	17	12	398
% of Daily Change	1.51%	4.77%	8.04%	26.38%	21.61%	14.07%	8.54%	7.79%	4.27%	3.02%
% of Total Cases	0.54%	3.42%	9.69%	27.09%	20.93%	15.07%	11.36%	6.56%	3.15%	2.18%

[Gatorubet 30,083]

Your ranting aside, he most certainly wished death on old people with political opinions that conflict with his own.
 

Wearing masks is not a political opinion snowflake. The larger number of people who say it is a hoax and won’t wear masks are older people in my experience. Brat is correct that hipster young folks also do not wear masks. They just think they are immortal. Which is why I did stupid shit too as a brain dead kid.

But the large swath of covid denier non -masking spreaders who do not have the lack of a developed brain to blame, we would be better off without them.

fuck them. I don’t wish them death, I’m just not that unhappy to see it if it results from their not following rules. And not wearing a mask while hitting up young chicks is one thing. Now, Attacking mask wearing and social distancing and fighting against it for everyone - well, THAT is worth a death wish. Anyone who does that deserves a dirt nap.

[atomheartbevo 89,408]

So is 20% that big of a percentage?

 

[utee94 15,745]

9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Wearing masks is not a political opinion snowflake. The larger number of people who say it is a hoax and won’t wear masks are older people in my experience. Brat is correct that hipster young folks also do not wear masks. They just think they are immortal. Which is why I did stupid shit too as a brain dead kid.

But the large swath of covid denier non -masking spreaders who do not have the lack of a developed brain to blame, we would be better off without them.

fuck them. I don’t wish them death, I’m just not that unhappy to see it if it results from their not following rules. And not wearing a mask while hitting up young chicks is one thing. Now, Attacking mask wearing and social distancing and fighting against it for everyone - well, THAT is worth a death wish. Anyone who does that deserves a dirt nap.

You specifically wished death on non-woke old people, crybaby.  Not anti-maskers.  That's a political opinion and a piece of shit one at that.

Go fuck yourself.

[Anastasis 23,393]

we're off the rails in ATX. 

[NAVY 6,738]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

we're off the rails in ATX. 

Ouch. 752 for the day.

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

3 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Ouch. 752 for the day.

https://www.traviscountytx.gov/news/2020/1945-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-information

Scary thing is Tuesday is normally the “true-up” day. 
I will pull age demo data etc when I get home. Crazy shit

[Anastasis 23,393]

How many shots sitting in freezers in ATX tonight. Fuck this shit. 

[BradInATX 9,208]

Yikes. We're blowing through the first spike numbers and Christmas/New Year's aren't even accounted for.

[Anastasis 23,393]

3 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Yikes. We're blowing through the first spike numbers and Christmas/New Year's aren't even accounted for.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Anastasis

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

552 people hospitalized is a record for Travis County, blowing by the old high by over 50 people. Just crazy. 752 cases today which is one short of the all time record as well. 84 admits which is 8 off the record of 92. Not good for Travis County. This is IMO part of Christmas spike coming home to roost with NYE spike rolling behind it. Of concern is the sheer number of cases in the 60+ buckets which are where deaths have typically stemmed from. I estimate from today's cases between 8-10 deaths. Just fucked up and these numbers (as proven back when we recovered from July spike) were avoidable.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 1/4 vs 1/3	1	32	81	190	153	119	77	49	26	24	752
% of Daily Change	0.13%	4.26%	10.77%	25.27%	20.35%	15.82%	10.24%	6.52%	3.46%	3.19%
% of Total Cases	0.54%	3.43%	9.71%	27.06%	20.92%	15.08%	11.35%	6.55%	3.15%	2.20%

[BradInATX 9,208]

I need my daughter to decide to join us before I have to pull her out myself in our bathtub because the L&D departments at all the hospitals are full of Covid patients.

On the bright side, never a better time to be in that 2-3 month newborn haze where you never leave home

[utee94 15,745]

14 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Yikes. We're blowing through the first spike numbers and Christmas/New Year's aren't even accounted for.

To me the scariest bit is that this has been a steady increase since just before Halloween.  No real peak after Halloween,  no real peak after Thanksgiving. Just a long steady increase.

That indicates to me that it's not just family gatherings and such, but a large-scale stopped-giving-a-shit.  Which is way worse imo, because there's no reason to think we'll reach some peak after a specific event, and then start declining.

 

[Captainant 27,442]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

That indicates to me that it's not just family gatherings and such, but a large-scale stopped-giving-a-shit.

Brother, an incredible number of people never even started giving a shit. It's all a hoax to take away your freedoms anyways, right??

It's remarkable the difference I've seen between cities and rural areas, you'd think there was no pandemic based on the lack of facemask usage in small towns

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

Its almost like we could have seen this coming or something

[utee94 15,745]

Just now, Captainant said:

Brother, an incredible number of people never even started giving a shit. It's all a hoax to take away your freedoms anyways, right??

It's remarkable the difference I've seen between cities and rural areas, you'd think there was no pandemic based on the lack of facemask usage in small towns

Overall I agree.  But Austin/TravCo had been doing relatively well, compared to the smaller towns and rural locales.  Now, it looks like even that much is slipping away.

Quarantine fatigue is about all I can think of.  Even people that were previously following the guidelines, seem to have relaxed or abandoned it altogether.  

From my own observations, public mask-wearing hasn't declined noticeably.  I just think a LOT of people are gathering and intermingling now in more varied social settings.  Not just the family Tday/Christmas gatherings we'd expect, but well above and beyond that.  Otherwise I would have expected to see some decrease after Tday but before Christmas, and we really never did.

 

[InkaUtexas 25,496]

18 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Brother, an incredible number of people never even started giving a shit. It's all a hoax to take away your freedoms anyways, right??

It's remarkable the difference I've seen between cities and rural areas, you'd think there was no pandemic based on the lack of facemask usage in small towns

People cared, they burnt out from lock down. And this can be for lots of reasons.

I saw it with the girl I was going out with. She was pretty damn careful and maybe part of that was me reminding her of the actual threat vs. what her friends were posting about it being a joke, we are all gonna get it, only the olds die, etc. 

We broke up, first thing she did was go right back to seeing all her friends in Austin, bar hopping, etc. She wanted to come over and pick up her Christmas present a few days ago. Told her I would leave it on the front porch after hearing about her latest back yard BBQ. 

People don't get it. It is not just COVID killing you. It is about the lack of capacity for other ailments. It is about the impact on the economy the longer this goes on. But when you are young and immortal these things tend to not be important. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,410]

I know a few people that are planning to get-together this weekend.  One problem that I've seen is that some people, who have recovered from COVID, have a different view of the lockdown rules and set bad examples.

We're about to see more mandatory lockdowns (based on Abbott's already published rules) and continued loss of hospital services.  I don't understand why people can't stay the fuck home for a little while longer.  And for people angry at the vaccine slow progress, the vaccine was never going to help much with this wave. The vaccine will hopefully prevent another wave in late spring or early summer. But I agree we need to quickly react and learn from the current vaccine logistic problems.

[atomheartbevo 89,408]

15 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Yikes. We're blowing through the first spike numbers and Christmas/New Year's aren't even accounted for.

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

To me the scariest bit is that this has been a steady increase since just before Halloween.  No real peak after Halloween,  no real peak after Thanksgiving. Just a long steady increase.

That indicates to me that it's not just family gatherings and such, but a large-scale stopped-giving-a-shit.  Which is way worse imo, because there's no reason to think we'll reach some peak after a specific event, and then start declining.

Yeah, this has become fucking nuts.

And we have some friends in their mid-80s that now have it (not sure when they got it - they were very careful).  Hopefully they don't become one of those stats - they are both healthy for their age, both still able to drive themselves around, no major issues.  And they have the money/means for access to good healthcare and are taking this very seriously (they live for their grandkids and great-grandkids).

Texas is supposedly getting hundreds of thousands more vaccines this week, and they are rolling out the second dose for those who got it first.

I'm wondering if people are saying "fuck it, the vaccine is around the corner, I've been doing this for 8 months, I'm just gonna slack off, no harm with a month or two to go until I get a vaccine!"

 

[utee94 15,745]

7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

I'm wondering if people are saying "fuck it, the vaccine is around the corner, I've been doing this for 8 months, I'm just gonna slack off, no harm with a month or two to go until I get a vaccine!"

 

Interesting point and that could definitely be part of it. 

As for your friends in their 80s that got it, I wish them the best.  My inlaws are both 80+ and got it back in July.  Fortunately they only had the headache/fatigue/gastro-intestinal symptoms and none of the lungs/breathing/pneumonia ones, and they recovered well after a couple of weeks of feeling extremely tired.  That's just anecdotal of course, but the point is that getting this virus and being old is certainly not a good thing, but it's also not the instant death sentence that some people fear.  Anyway, best wishes to them for a speedy and full recovery.

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by utee94

[atomheartbevo 89,408]

10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Interesting point and that could definitely be part of it. 

As for your friends in their 80s that got it, I wish them the best.  My inlaws are both 80+ and got it back in July.  Fortunately they only had the headache/fatigue/gastro-intestinal symptoms and none of the lungs/breathing/pneumonia ones, and they recovered well after a couple of weeks of feeling extremely tired.  That's just anecdotal of course, but the point is that getting this virus and being old is certainly not a good thing, but it's also not the instant death sentence that some people fear.  Anyway, best wishes to them for a speedy and full recovery.

Thanks, and the folks that we know who have had it, who had serious problems/hospitalization, were anywhere from 30s - 60s, but they had Ye Olde Pre-Existing Conditions that worked against them.

[utee94 15,745]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Thanks, and the folks that we know who have had it, who had serious problems/hospitalization, were anywhere from 30s - 60s, but they had Ye Olde Pre-Existing Conditions that worked against them.

Heck my FIL is diabetic and obese, and he still only had mild symptoms-- diarrhea, nausea, lack of appetite, but nothing life-threatening.  He lost ~15 lbs in 3 weeks, which for him was probably a net positive.

[atomheartbevo 89,408]

10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Heck my FIL is diabetic and obese, and he still only had mild symptoms-- diarrhea, nausea, lack of appetite, but nothing life-threatening.  He lost ~15 lbs in 3 weeks, which for him was probably a net positive.

A few years ago, I went on a Strep throat/pneumonia diet and lost 10 or so pounds really fast.

Covid has put that back on.

[Hate 20,103]

Heck my FIL is diabetic and obese, and he still only had mild symptoms-- diarrhea, nausea, lack of appetite, but nothing life-threatening.  He lost ~15 lbs in 3 weeks, which for him was probably a net positive.

My mom caught It and is recovering which I didn’t think was possible. She is a diabetic, overweight, and has emphysema due to smoking 2 packs of cigarettes a day for 45 years. This virus is frustratingly inconsistent in what makes it so deadly for some.

[SubliminalHorn 6,673]

The fatigue is real, that’s for sure. I’m a natural home-body so it’s hasn’t been torture, but my roomie is an extreme extrovert and she’s had a rough time. Even I’m struggling right now. I want to go out or have friends over so bad, but I tell myself I’ve got to be disciplined a while longer. We’ve both had our first shots including my husband at his clinical site, but it’s gonna be a ways yet until we’re coming out of this. 

[Armybrat 40,725]

[dcbc 14,404]

6 hours ago, utee94 said:

Overall I agree.  But Austin/TravCo had been doing relatively well, compared to the smaller towns and rural locales.  Now, it looks like even that much is slipping away.

Quarantine fatigue is about all I can think of.  Even people that were previously following the guidelines, seem to have relaxed or abandoned it altogether.  

From my own observations, public mask-wearing hasn't declined noticeably.  I just think a LOT of people are gathering and intermingling now in more varied social settings.  Not just the family Tday/Christmas gatherings we'd expect, but well above and beyond that.  Otherwise I would have expected to see some decrease after Tday but before Christmas, and we really never did.

 

On the smaller town side of things, there probably isn't as large of a group of the school age kids in remote learning as compared to, for example, HISD or AISD.  My kids started the year out remote, but returned after 3 weeks because Tyler ISD sucked so incredibly at it.  More people returned at the 6 week mark, and by early November, TISD canceled remote learning for anyone who couldn't produce a doctor's note saying they had a medical reason (the student; not a household member) for not going to school in person.  Masks are required and, according to my kids, most of the kids aren't messing around.  But these are large public schools and there are a lot of cases and, presumably, a lot of kids infecting family members.  My older one had it in early December and we all quarantined for the remainder of the school year, isolating from the world and from each other (the rest of us managed not to get it).  Anyway, I think fatigue is a big part of it, but kids back in school is a driver as well, even though their reported numbers aren't supposedly higher than the population generally (figure more asymptomatic in that age range).

Edited January 5, 2021 by dcbc

[Anastasis 23,393]

ATX numbers for Tuesday @ 564 new cases, 115 new admissions though is terrible. If you are a provider or pharmacy with a vial of vaccine sitting in your freezer right now it needs to get into an arm ASAP. 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

San Antonio with more than 2k today. Good job!

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

115 new admits blows the old record of 92 out the fucking window. Number hospitalized #1 with a bullet as well at 574. 562 cases today. Good news is the cases skewed younger but jeez the 115 admits is no joke. 161 people in ICU also is a record. All in all if you do not need to go to a hospital or have a procedure you should stay home. Only going to get worse IMO. Still have at least a couple of weeks to ride this peak.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 1/5 vs 1/4	1	36	77	120	87	117	69	25	16	14	562
% of Daily Change	0.18%	6.41%	13.70%	21.35%	15.48%	20.82%	12.28%	4.45%	2.85%	2.49%
% of Total Cases	0.53%	3.46%	9.75%	27.00%	20.87%	15.14%	11.36%	6.53%	3.15%	2.20%

[InkaUtexas 25,496]

@BrazilHorn I hate giving Rep to the information you post, but I really appreciate you providing the daily numbers. When all this fuckery is over, first beer is on me. 

 

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

8 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

@BrazilHorn I hate giving Rep to the information you post, but I really appreciate you providing the daily numbers. When all this fuckery is over, first beer is on me. 

 

Thanks man. Happy to have that beer one day. Gathering the data is a way for to process the craziness. Appreciate it. 

[Skipper 6,103]

Dallas County hasn't bothered to update the twice weekly detailed summary since December 11th.  I'm not sure how much it matters as the obvious answer is it's beyond a crisis level here but still ridiculous they can't manage to upload data.

[utee94 15,745]

12 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Dallas County hasn't bothered to update the twice weekly detailed summary since December 11th.  I'm not sure how much it matters as the obvious answer is it's beyond a crisis level here but still ridiculous they can't manage to upload data.

There are so many disparate processes and systems in the reporting, that are all cobbled together.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if "Joe" has been out on vacation over the holidays, and he's responsible for the one critical link required to ensure that all of the reporting flows properly.  

 

 

[DDD Dad 14,250]

36 minutes ago, utee94 said:

There are so many disparate processes and systems in the reporting, that are all cobbled together.  Wouldn't surprise me at all if "Joe" has been out on vacation over the holidays, and he's responsible for the one critical link required to ensure that all of the reporting flows properly.  

 

 

 

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

Hard to even focus on reporting this in light of the complete unprecedented shitshow perpetuated in DC but another bad day for Travis County with 665 cases and 89 admits. The 89 admits is 3rd highest Travis County has had. The scary thing for today is the cases have a lot more representation than normal in the >60 buckets. I expect deaths from today to be 6-8 in number.

Hospitalizations are 569, down 5 from yesterday.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 1/6 vs 1/5	7	30	54	154	165	67	83	63	34	8	665
% of Daily Change	1.05%	4.51%	8.12%	23.16%	24.81%	10.08%	12.48%	9.47%	5.11%	1.20%
% of Total Cases	0.54%	3.48%	9.73%	26.96%	20.91%	15.08%	11.37%	6.57%	3.17%	2.19%

[atomheartbevo 89,408]

18 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Hospitalizations are 569, down 5 from yesterday.

The statements and press conference today (there was one in Austin, even though 99% of the people were watching DC) mentioned that our ability to get people out of the hospitals quickly has helped substantially, versus earlier in the year, but that it's basically just bought us a week or so before the hospitals are full, as we start seeing the New Year's effect.

I'm guessing they are being aggressive with the therapeutics, which is helping get people out of the hospitals.

As a whole, the state is blowing through July's numbers, and Austin is as well. 

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

26 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The statements and press conference today (there was one in Austin, even though 99% of the people were watching DC) mentioned that our ability to get people out of the hospitals quickly has helped substantially, versus earlier in the year, but that it's basically just bought us a week or so before the hospitals are full, as we start seeing the New Year's effect.

I'm guessing they are being aggressive with the therapeutics, which is helping get people out of the hospitals.

As a whole, the state is blowing through July's numbers, and Austin is as well. 

We’ve Definitely been seeing a rapid turnover in hospitalizations. Wonder how long they can keep it up with admit lvls running so high. 

[atomheartbevo 89,408]

1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

We’ve Definitely been seeing a rapid turnover in hospitalizations. Wonder how long they can keep it up with admit lvls running so high. 

The therapeutics maybe keeping them out of the ICU, which is our one saving grace. 

Several months ago, I had a cousin who had to be admitted, and they did the therapeutics with him, and had him out quick.  He went from completely shit and thinking he was headed to a ventilator, to being able to walk out on his own in a few days.

But all it's done is moved the 100% capacity down the road a week, because there's still a small number ending up in the ICU every single day.

[InkaUtexas 25,496]

Fuck it, the weather is nice, taking granny to brunch. 

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The therapeutics maybe keeping them out of the ICU, which is our one saving grace. 

Several months ago, I had a cousin who had to be admitted, and they did the therapeutics with him, and had him out quick.  He went from completely shit and thinking he was headed to a ventilator, to being able to walk out on his own in a few days.

But all it's done is moved the 100% capacity down the road a week, because there's still a small number ending up in the ICU every single day.

Yep. Travis Co at 162 in ICU currently. Crazy that with 89 admits only netted 1 new ICU patient. It is a record for ICU (by 2) from where peak in July was. We are currently moving past the peak of this summer into a worse place. We are still 7 off high of 111 for ventilator usage which is interesting and perhaps speaks to change in how severe cases are handled now vs July.

The big 3 hospital chains have 483 ICU beds between them and we are sitting at 1/3rd of them being used for CV19 cases. just crazy.

Three months ago we had 27 people in ICU & 75 folks hospitalized. It is crazy we are 7.5x more people in the hospital & 6x more in the ICU. Nuts.

 

[Anastasis 23,393]

53 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Fuck it, the weather is nice, taking granny to brunch. 

I'm just glad all my grannies have passed and didnt have to spend the last days of their lives dealing with this fucking nonsense.