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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

justhookit

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MaybeACoordinator

MaybeACoordinator 8,349

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On 1/11/2021 at 10:17 AM, InkaUtexas said:

I hear you, and perhaps. I have told everyone to just kick it at home or they can come and live here. It has been a week and no one has any symptoms. I know we are still in the window but I believe caution is key to beating this pandemic as well as testing, vaccines, etc. Like I said, beer tastes like beer and not like miller light. Only symptoms I have are the same as when cedar kicks my ass. I can smell the coffee on the stove. I am watching my temp and no change. Perhaps this is just worrying since they both see their parents who are older. I live alone and only see the team on a regular basis. Other than going to HEB (when it is open) I do not venture out except to ride my bike or walk around the neighborhood. 

Fuck COVID. Here is a picture since it was requested. 

IMG_1917.thumb.jpg.60f93a2e8eeca38581dec59f34e4b422.jpg

[Junior Miller] What you really should do is shoot your cleaner for exposing you to the virus, and then kill your admin, cartographer and yourself to spare all of y'all the misery of covid. Or maybe just shoot the cleaner and then flee to New Zealand. [/Junior Miller]

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whithou
whithou

It has been a disheartening journey and it is only starting. I did not realize how there really is no definitive treatment for the illness until we got COVID patients. When they first come on our unit

South Austin
South Austin

He didn't get COVID.  He just ran out of immunity.

safe sex
safe sex

I cannot stress this enough for anyone who lives in Austin (although this really applies to pretty much everywhere at this point) BE SAFE. What this means is don't get on your motorcycles. D

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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690 cases today for Travis County. No major shocks in age groups so that is encouraging as we have been struggling in the 60+ groups.

189 people in ICU & 608 people hospitalized (up 7 from yesterday). We are up ~100 cases from last Friday's daily case load.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/14 vs 1/13 9 26 61 182 152 84 99 44 19 14 690
% of Daily Change 1.30% 3.77% 8.84% 26.38% 22.03% 12.17% 14.35% 6.38% 2.75% 2.03%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 3.66% 9.75% 26.54% 20.99% 15.08% 11.43% 6.63% 3.17% 2.17%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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Better than expected cases count today with only 295 cases today (lowest since 12/27). 89 new admits today (three straight days of decline). 607 people hospitalized (down 1 from yesterday) with 182 folks (down 6 day over day) in ICU.

Some uptick vs norm in 60 to 69 & 70 to 79 groups which isn't what you ever like to see.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/16 vs  vs 1/15 3 18 30 79 59 40 28 20 14 4 295
% of Daily Change 1.02% 6.10% 10.17% 26.78% 20.00% 13.56% 9.49% 6.78% 4.75% 1.36%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 3.67% 9.76% 26.54% 20.99% 15.07% 11.42% 6.63% 3.18% 2.17%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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Deaths for w/e 1/16 in Travis County are our worse since w/e 8/29. There were 23 deaths last week. They break out into the following age groups:

40 to 49 (1)

50 to 59 (2)

60 to 69 (2)

70 to 79 (5)

80+ (13)

The 60 + groups make up 86.95% of deaths from last week.

If you are still seeing grandma/granpa just now that if they are over 80 they have a ~22% chance of dying if they catch Covid-19.

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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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4 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Went to El Mirasol in SA last night to pick up dinner and all I can say is holy shit. It’s like Covid doesn’t exist. The place was jam packed.

Austin is pretty much business as usual, except with masks.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,651

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4 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

Went to El Mirasol in SA last night to pick up dinner and all I can say is holy shit. It’s like Covid doesn’t exist. The place was jam packed.

14 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Austin is pretty much business as usual, except with masks.

I was jogging around the flood/pollution control lake by Central Market, and then cut through their outdoor area to get home, and while the tables are spaced out, they were all full of people, and the ones eating, no mask obviously.  And the playground was about 50/50 with masks and kids, and obviously, well, it's a bunch of kids crawling all over each other, filling up the connecting tunnels, etc.

If you told me that was where the kids were getting it, I'd believe it.

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South Austin

South Austin 52,463

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8 hours ago, XYZ said:

Austin is pretty much business as usual, except with masks.

I was at the light on Second Street next to Taverna yesterday around noon and looked over to see the crowd seated at the outside patio, which was wrapped in clear plastic for the colder weather.  Tables packed and crammed together, nobody wearing masks.

With the vaccine and 11 months of pandemic fatigue, no fucks seem to be given anymore.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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403 cases for Travis County yesterday. Not great numbers for a Sunday and cases skewed higher in the 60+ age groups than their normal share.

63 admits which is 4th day of declining admits in a row so we are having some positive momentum there. 591 people hospitalized (down 16 from yesterday).

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/17 vs  vs 1/16 7 15 33 88 76 60 59 32 18 15 403
% of Daily Change 1.74% 3.72% 8.19% 21.84% 18.86% 14.89% 14.64% 7.94% 4.47% 3.72%  
% of Total Cases 0.58% 3.67% 9.75% 26.51% 20.97% 15.07% 11.44% 6.64% 3.19% 2.18%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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686 cases today in Travis County, down ~300 from last Sunday so we are moving seemingly in right direction but it is at least some good direction.

602 people in the hospital up 11 from yesterday, with 78 admits today.

Big jump in the 60 to 69 range today vs normal.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/18 vs  vs 1/17 3 34 54 182 140 102 76 62 23 10 686
% of Daily Change 0.44% 4.96% 7.87% 26.53% 20.41% 14.87% 11.08% 9.04% 3.35% 1.46%  
% of Total Cases 0.58% 3.68% 9.73% 26.51% 20.97% 15.07% 11.44% 6.67% 3.19% 2.17%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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27 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

60-69? Grandparents getting infected by their loved ones over the Christmas/New Year holidays?

 

I think it is just everyone collectively has seemingly said "fuck it". Unfortunately folks are talking about the math in terms of mortality if you catch it over 60.

60 to 69 - 5% chance of dying

70 to 79 - 10%

80+ 20%

It is +/- on all these numbers but I kept it easy to remember as that seems to resonate better. 5/10/20 those are the % that you will die in the various age groups above 60 if you catch CV19. That should be plastered in every restaurant/bar/grocery store whatever so people start to do the math of being "in the world" until they have a vaccine.

You wouldn't drive your car if you had a 1 in 5 chance of dying, or get on a plane etc etc. People playing fast and loose with a virus is a losing proposition and it is why people >60 make up 85% of all CV19 deaths. (I am not saying you are doing this AB, I mean you have experience going back to the Black Plague so you know the drill) but people of all ages are just playing "mortality math" games with people over 60 and it is leading to a lot of avoidable illness/death.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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Well shit. 834 cases for Travis County and 114 admits (new 2nd place and 3 off record). 619 people in the hospital (up 17 from yesterday) and 183 in ICU (up 7 from yesterday)

The 60 to 69 group again outperforming their normal share. I see 7-10 deaths from today's cases in the upcoming weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/19 vs  vs 1/18 7 61 88 174 170 120 91 74 32 17 834
% of Daily Change 0.84% 7.31% 10.55% 20.86% 20.38% 14.39% 10.91% 8.87% 3.84% 2.04%  
% of Total Cases 0.58% 3.73% 9.74% 26.43% 20.96% 15.06% 11.43% 6.70% 3.20% 2.17%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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Fairly large day again for Travis Co with 734 cases overall and 67 admits. Keep on keeping on.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/20 vs  vs 1/19 9 46 76 166 154 103 78 54 29 19 734
% of Daily Change 1.23% 6.27% 10.35% 22.62% 20.98% 14.03% 10.63% 7.36% 3.95% 2.59%  
% of Total Cases 0.59% 3.76% 9.74% 26.39% 20.96% 15.05% 11.42% 6.71% 3.21% 2.17%  
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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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715 cases today in Travis County with 85 admits. Bad thing is the 60+ groups are over indexed to their pandemic to date share of cases.

I expect a range of 10-12 deaths from cases today in the upcoming weeks.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/21 vs  vs 1/20 -5 32 74 155 144 110 77 62 34 32 715
% of Daily Change -0.70% 4.48% 10.35% 21.68% 20.14% 15.38% 10.77% 8.67% 4.76% 4.48%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 3.77% 9.75% 26.34% 20.95% 15.05% 11.41% 6.73% 3.23% 2.20%  
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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,651

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Posted (edited)

AISD is asking the in-person folks to send their kids back if they had them out the past few weeks.

Quote

Below please find the data we are using to make this determination:  Austin ISD

  • There has been a 35% decrease in daily positive cases reported since the first week of returning from Winter Break.
  • There has been a 28% decrease in the cumulative number of weekly cases reported to the district since the first week of returning from Winter Break.
  • The district currently has a 4.01% positivity rate. This is a 43% decrease from the positivity rate that we were seeing in the district before and right after Winter Break (our highest positivity rate was 7.07%).
Quote

Austin/Travis County. While we are still considered to be in Stage 5 in Austin/Travis County, we are seeing a decrease in positive cases within Austin/Travis County.

  • The current positivity rate of 12.8% for Austin/Travis County is a 28% decrease from the overall positivity rate that we saw returning from Winter Break (17.8%). In the past 3 days, the positivity rate for Austin/Travis County has decreased by almost 21%.

 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,651

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2 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I think we may have finally hit the peak in Austin for this wave.  Hopefully the vaccines are effective enough to beat it back for good.  

We haven’t seen the really contagious strain in Austin yet.   Predictions are around March it will be the predominate strain in the US.  

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,651

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1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Covid cases go through the roof

...

AISD: “if you can, please keep your kids at home”

...

Cases go down

...

AISD: “send your kids back! it’s all good! covid is gone”

AISD didn't exactly have a choice - they had to operate under the 50% capacity rule the state put out.  Now that we are climbing out of that little hole, they can ease up.

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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

AISD didn't exactly have a choice - they had to operate under the 50% capacity rule the state put out.  Now that we are climbing out of that little hole, they can ease up.

...so they get get right back in the hole.

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BrazilHorn

BrazilHorn 6,586

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Finally a bit of good news (at least in terms of cases). 540 cases today vs 690 last week Friday. 82 admits today (vs 91 a week ago).

No major gotchas in age groups minus 60 to 69 being up 1 pt. Hopefully we can keep this unfucked direction for several days moving forward.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 1/22 vs  vs 1/21 3 29 73 108 99 90 77 42 13 6 540
% of Daily Change 0.56% 5.37% 13.52% 20.00% 18.33% 16.67% 14.26% 7.78% 2.41% 1.11%  
% of Total Cases 0.57% 3.78% 9.78% 26.28% 20.93% 15.07% 11.44% 6.74% 3.22% 2.19%  
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GRHorn

GRHorn 105

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On 1/20/2021 at 10:42 PM, XYZ said:

Dallas/Ft. Worth coming down, Austin and Houston have flattened, and San Antonio is going up at a prety good rate. Get your shit together San Antonio.

We’re down from a high of 1500 hospitalized to 1400. Looks like we’ve peaked too. 

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4,621

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1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Everyone on here pretty much nailed it.

 

”3 weeks after new years.” Nice job guys

Not to suck my own cock, but yeah.  Still sticking to the prediction that life in the US will largely be back to “normal” by Memorial Day.  CDC will declare the pandemic over by July 4th.

Its a damn shame to see so many people get sick and die within 3-4 months of this thing being (mostly) beaten.  I think a lot of people who had been relatively careful from Mar-Aug just gave up by Thanksgiving and Christmas.

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