COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Travis County shutting down updates until Tuesday for demographic info. Stay warm mofos/

[Neonmoon 38129]

23 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Could be, that'll be interesting to see if it runs into weekend. I am not going to get too hung up on the slight bump as admits are still trending well as are hospitalizations.

If APH can ever get their shit together and get vaccines out things might be ok. I hope the majore pharmacies (HEB, CVS, Randalls) can just bypass our dipshit COA folks and get needles in arms quickly.

[Armybrat 40832]

So, did the Covid skip this week in Texas?

[utee94 15811]

On 2/19/2021 at 7:36 AM, Armybrat said:

So, did the Covid skip this week in Texas?

Yup

 

[South Austin 52463]

On 2/19/2021 at 7:36 AM, Armybrat said:

So, did the Covid skip this week in Texas?

There were some rolling COVID outages.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

On 2/19/2021 at 7:36 AM, Armybrat said:

So, did the Covid skip this week in Texas?

No data updated. I'd imagine a big dump of stuff Monday.

[ABSR 5309]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

There were some rolling COVID outages.

Hopefully ERCOT is in charge so they can shut off the COVID, but then not roll it back.

[Hpara759 1778]

On 2/19/2021 at 7:36 AM, Armybrat said:

So, did the Covid skip this week in Texas?

Shocking isn't it

[BradInATX 9208]

We're going to get no data for all of last week then a big dump that won't tell us anything. It'll take two weeks for us to understand what snowpalooza 2021 did to Covid rates.

But I'll bet anyone money that we're way down from a week ago in two weeks. Only question is how far.

[CleverNickname 1308]

I know several families who have isolated hard-core for 11 month who shacked up with family or friends for heat during the winter snap. Could lead to transmission. 

[Hpara759 1778]

3 hours ago, BradInATX said:

It'll take two weeks 

Thanks for this

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Deaths through 2/21 (past 2 weeks) saw a dip in deaths/week. There were 26 deaths the past two weeks vs 29 the w/e 2/6.

Still heavily focused in the 60+ groupings. For the two weeks ending 2/21 you see:

20 to 29: 1

30 to 39: 1

40 to 49: 1

50 to 59: 3

60 to 69: 3

70 to 79: 8

80+: 9

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Now we may see a huge spike in cases as weather warms but for the time frame of 2/12 to 2/21 Travis County only saw 271 cases. Let's see what being stuck indoors for a week does but I am hopeful it continues to level out.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/12 vs 2/11	0	24	35	55	45	46	28	20	11	7	271
% of Daily Change	0.00%	8.86%	12.92%	20.30%	16.61%	16.97%	10.33%	7.38%	4.06%	2.58%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.04%	10.21%	25.76%	20.72%	15.06%	11.39%	6.71%	3.31%	2.19%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

397 cases today in Travis County with 34 admits. Only 338 people in the hospital. Current course/speed we should drop <300 by Friday.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/22 vs 2/21	3	17	59	85	76	58	53	28	13	5	397
% of Daily Change	0.76%	4.28%	14.86%	21.41%	19.14%	14.61%	13.35%	7.05%	3.27%	1.26%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.04%	10.23%	25.74%	20.71%	15.06%	11.40%	6.71%	3.31%	2.18%

[Bevo 13576]

On 2/20/2021 at 7:11 PM, CleverNickname said:

I know several families who have isolated hard-core for 11 month who shacked up with family or friends for heat during the winter snap. Could lead to transmission. 

I doubt this is going to lead to much spreading. I think the storm will keep people from going out and going to work and school, which have been the major drivers of transmission. As such, I think we will see a pretty decent drop. Of course the drop will be reversed somewhat as soon as people start going out again. But due to the vaccine, we will continue to see an overall decline in the number of cases.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

392 cases in Travis County today which is not bad for a true up day. 36 admits which is good to see (compared to where we were blasting through). 319 people hospitalized. I wouldn't be shocked to see us drop <300 tomorrow (I had said by EOW).

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/23 vs 2/22	1	34	62	89	58	58	42	24	10	14	392
% of Daily Change	0.26%	8.67%	15.82%	22.70%	14.80%	14.80%	10.71%	6.12%	2.55%	3.57%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.07%	10.26%	25.72%	20.68%	15.06%	11.40%	6.71%	3.30%	2.19%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Good day for Travis County with only 237 cases today. Very low in the 60+ groups which is also encouraging.

304 people in the hospital and 35 admits.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/24 vs 2/23	2	11	18	56	63	36	31	5	11	4	237
% of Daily Change	0.84%	4.64%	7.59%	23.63%	26.58%	15.19%	13.08%	2.11%	4.64%	1.69%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.07%	10.25%	25.72%	20.70%	15.06%	11.40%	6.70%	3.31%	2.19%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Another good day for Travis County. 212 cases today, 35 admits and we finally broke below 300 hospitalized with 285 folks in the hospital. Hospitalizations lowest since 12/12.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/25 vs 2/24	1	11	21	60	42	28	33	10	6	0	212
% of Daily Change	0.47%	5.19%	9.91%	28.30%	19.81%	13.21%	15.57%	4.72%	2.83%	0.00%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.07%	10.25%	25.72%	20.70%	15.05%	11.41%	6.69%	3.31%	2.18%

[texhorn 351]

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/greg-abbott-mask-order-end/

[StruggleBus 3922]

6 minutes ago, texhorn said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/greg-abbott-mask-order-end/

[Bevo 13576]

5 minutes ago, texhorn said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/greg-abbott-mask-order-end/

That article was interesting. 23% of the population in Texas is under 16 and not eligible for the vaccine. This makes it difficult to get Re under 1.

[XYZ 2154]

Quote

Abbott called it a “great question.”

Does anybody else find that shit annoying? Just answer the fucking question.

[atomheartbevo 89648]

1 hour ago, texhorn said:

https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/25/greg-abbott-mask-order-end/

[South Austin 52463]

50 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Does anybody else find that shit annoying? Just answer the fucking question.

[Guest Lobo]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

Does anybody else find that shit annoying? 

Seriously bro, that's a great question.  Glad you asked it.  

[BrazilHorn 6586]

315 cases in Travis County today. 41 new admits, which I am not thrilled about as we had been below 40 each day this week. Cases skewing in the younger, non lethal age ranges so that is good for deaths forward looking.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/26 vs 2/25	2	11	36	91	76	48	25	14	9	3	315
% of Daily Change	0.63%	3.49%	11.43%	28.89%	24.13%	15.24%	7.94%	4.44%	2.86%	0.95%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.07%	10.26%	25.74%	20.71%	15.06%	11.40%	6.68%	3.31%	2.17%

[Bevo 13576]

45 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

315 cases in Travis County today. 41 new admits, which I am not thrilled about as we had been below 40 each day this week. Cases skewing in the younger, non lethal age ranges so that is good for deaths forward looking.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/26 vs 2/25	2	11	36	91	76	48	25	14	9	3	315
% of Daily Change	0.63%	3.49%	11.43%	28.89%	24.13%	15.24%	7.94%	4.44%	2.86%	0.95%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.07%	10.26%	25.74%	20.71%	15.06%	11.40%	6.68%	3.31%	2.17%

Just a random blip - not going to be a trend. I bet numbers improve again tomorrow.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

Just a random blip - not going to be a trend. I bet numbers improve again tomorrow.

I think you’re right. I’m not worried we are poised for breakout pt 2. 
Spring Break will pop cases but not hospitalizations, but that’s like 3 weeks out. 

[Message Board User 12395]

So for the first time since November 5, hospitalizations statewide under 6000.

Texas COVID-19 Hospital Resource Usage (csullender.com)

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Yesterday's numbers for Travis County are still moving in positive direction. 25 admits, 276 hospitalized and 255 new cases. Higher share than typical in the 60-69 bracket but it is off a low base so I am not overly concerned.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 2/27 vs 2/26	2	27	40	53	33	45	26	22	4	3	255
% of Daily Change	0.78%	10.59%	15.69%	20.78%	12.94%	17.65%	10.20%	8.63%	1.57%	1.18%
% of Total Cases	0.61%	4.09%	10.28%	25.72%	20.68%	15.06%	11.40%	6.69%	3.30%	2.17%

[BrazilHorn 6586]

33 deaths for w/e 2/27 in Travis County reversing a two week run of <30 deaths.

They break out along following age groups:

30 to 39: 2

40 to 49: 1

50 to 59: 5

60 to 69: 7

70 to 79: 10

80 to 80: 8

75% of deaths 60+. This is below the normal share of 80-82%. One week doesn't make a trend but this is something i will keep an eye on moving forward.

[Message Board User 12395]

Fewest hospitalizations statewide since Halloween and down about 1500 from a week ago.

[Neonmoon 38129]

Another two months of vaccines and I wonder how low the numbers will go 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Travis County database is incomplete today so no case update.

[Message Board User 12395]

 

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Cases still not fully updated for Travis County. All of the age demo unchanged since 2/27. I am showing 19 new cases for 2/28 (which are under reported) and 265 cases for 3/1. Hospital admits today only show as 15 which is crazy low which makes me think there are admit data issues as well.

 

[BradInATX 9208]

Cases still not fully updated for Travis County. All of the age demo unchanged since 2/27. I am showing 19 new cases for 2/28 (which are under reported) and 265 cases for 3/1. Hospital admits today only show as 15 which is crazy low which makes me think there are admit data issues as well.
 

Well, around now-ish is where I'd expect to see hospitalizations and death decrease due to the most vulnerable hitting decent vax numbers. We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread, and will have to start looking at cases and positivity rates, which we all know are flawed. Statistically that sucks, but it's great that it's happening.

[Skipper 6133]

57 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Well, around now-ish is where I'd expect to see hospitalizations and death decrease due to the most vulnerable hitting decent vax numbers. We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread, and will have to start looking at cases and positivity rates, which we all know are flawed. Statistically that sucks, but it's great that it's happening.

Yeah, back in one of these threads 6 weeks or so ago I had pegged 3/1 as the date we would start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel which feels pretty accurate.   Now by 4/1 I'm hoping numbers still low and vax supply increased to a point that we've identified (if not already started) vaccinating "1C" or whatever the next category will be.

[BradInATX 9208]

24 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Yeah, back in one of these threads 6 weeks or so ago I had pegged 3/1 as the date we would start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel which feels pretty accurate.   Now by 4/1 I'm hoping numbers still low and vax supply increased to a point that we've identified (if not already started) vaccinating "1C" or whatever the next category will be.

I think we'll be well beyond 1C by the end of March. The three pharmas will be shipping shots to fully vaccinate 70 million people in March. Even if we only get 80% of those into arms that puts us at 80 million or so fully vaccinated (cumulative) by end of month. That's over a third of the US population done with by EOM, and more than a third of those who will actually get the shot.

I think we'll see general public availability in most states before end of month. I think the states are sandbagging it and we're going to see 1C in a couple of weeks.

Edited March 2, 2021 by BradInATX

[smoky 840]

Well, around now-ish is where I'd expect to see hospitalizations and death decrease due to the most vulnerable hitting decent vax numbers. We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread, and will have to start looking at cases and positivity rates, which we all know are flawed. Statistically that sucks, but it's great that it's happening.

Is it really that bad of an illness if we get to the point where no one locally is going to a hospital or dying?

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, smoky said:

 

 

Is it really that bad of an illness if we get to the point where no one locally is going to a hospital or dying?

 

 

Nope. It's a "who cares". Maybe we have to get boosters every year or whatever, but if/when we get to that point, Covid isn't a thing anymore.

Edited March 2, 2021 by BradInATX

[Newdoc 3439]

18 hours ago, BradInATX said:

We're going to start to lose hospitalizations as an honest indicator of community spread

This will be a very good thing. And at that point I hope we are only tracking to make sure a variant doesn’t rare its ugly head. There will still be one offs where the non immunized 40 yo without a comorbidity gets hospitalized. But this happens with other viral illnesses. It just doesn’t make the news like it will with COVID.  Hoping people keep or develop the will to stay immunized. There will be complacency. Like we do with lots of things.

[gyroprotagonist 2592]

i can't find a Dallas county dash board for hospitalizations, but just from reading Jenkins' tweets every day the deaths have seemed high lately ~45 per day-ish.  Are hospitalizations going down due to deaths?  I am guessing that most Covid deaths occur in a hospital, right?

- I would think at some point the deaths would come down as the population that is most likely to die is also getting the vax at the highest rate.   Are there a ton of olds out there with other health issues that prohibit them from getting the vax? 

googled and this article (from Jan 19th) came up that claims most of the shots are not going to the olds 

so i hope we have been making strides and maybe there are a lot of first responders or something that have skewed the initial response, but for only 25% of the first ~850K to go to seniors seems off.

 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

8 minutes ago, gyroprotagonist said:

i can't find a Dallas county dash board for hospitalizations, but just from reading Jenkins' tweets every day the deaths have seemed high lately ~45 per day-ish.  Are hospitalizations going down due to deaths?  I am guessing that most Covid deaths occur in a hospital, right?

- I would think at some point the deaths would come down as the population that is most likely to die is also getting the vax at the highest rate.   Are there a ton of olds out there with other health issues that prohibit them from getting the vax? 

googled and this article (from Jan 19th) came up that claims most of the shots are not going to the olds 

so i hope we have been making strides and maybe there are a lot of first responders or something that have skewed the initial response, but for only 25% of the first ~850K to go to seniors seems off.

 

 

 

If 25% of shots are going to seniors who only make up 10% of the population of the state then seniors are getting shots at 2.5x the rate that anyone else is. I think it's going fine.

[BrazilHorn 6586]

Welp good news is there is no more Covid in Texas any more according to the Gov! Some definite database weirdness transpired with Travis County so I expect these numbers to bounce up in coming days. Two different groups over last three days dropped from what their overall case numbers were before. 30 new admits today, down to 241 people hospitalized. Good trend on that front.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 3/2 vs 2/27	-25	40	-75	-8	224	84	96	78	27	30	471
% of Daily Change	-5.31%	8.49%	-15.92%	-1.70%	47.56%	17.83%	20.38%	16.56%	5.73%	6.37%
% of Total Cases	0.57%	4.12%	10.11%	25.55%	20.85%	15.08%	11.45%	6.75%	3.31%	2.20%

[ABSR 5309]

39 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Welp good news is there is no more Covid in Texas any more according to the Gov! Some definite database weirdness transpired with Travis County so I expect these numbers to bounce up in coming days. Two different groups over last three days dropped from what their overall case numbers were before. 30 new admits today, down to 241 people hospitalized. Good trend on that front.

Age Bracket	<1	1 to 9	10 to 19	20 to 29	30 to 39	40 to 49	50 to 59	60 to 69	70 to 79	>80	Total
New Cases 3/2 vs 2/27	-25	40	-75	-8	224	84	96	78	27	30	471
% of Daily Change	-5.31%	8.49%	-15.92%	-1.70%	47.56%	17.83%	20.38%	16.56%	5.73%	6.37%
% of Total Cases	0.57%	4.12%	10.11%	25.55%	20.85%	15.08%	11.45%	6.75%	3.31%	2.20%

WE WON!!!!!

[atomheartbevo 89648]

2 minutes ago, ABSR said:

WE WON!!!!!

Good thing we don't have something like Spring Break next week.  Hopefully it's not the following week either, and was just canceled everywhere!

It's an amazingly fucking stupid move to rescind the mask mandate, and to only allow cities/counties to put covid measures in place "If COVID-19 hospitalizations in any of Texas' 22 hospital regions rise above 15% of the capacity in that region for seven straight days"

[atomheartbevo 89648]

Also, TEA is going to decide this week if it's going to force school districts to drop their mask/covid mandates.

AISD and many of the other big ones are going to try and keep their masks, but TEA can force them to drop it.

And then a shit-ton of teachers and staff who still aren't vaccinated are going to tell them to fuck off, and a shitload of parents will bring their kids back home.

[Anastasis 23469]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Also, TEA is going to decide this week if it's going to force school districts to drop their mask/covid mandates.

AISD and many of the other big ones are going to try and keep their masks, but TEA can force them to drop it.

And then a shit-ton of teachers and staff who still aren't vaccinated are going to tell them to fuck off, and a shitload of parents will bring their kids back home.

And this is all the logical and completely foreseeable consequence, because of course shaking up the safety protocols in the last couple months of in person schooling is exactly what we should be doing.   

[gmr548 16576]

Deleted. Probably CR.